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It has been an extraordinary few hours which may well set the tone for a hugely consequential week ahead.

In the time that it took me to fly from London to Saudi Arabia, where President Donald Trump will begin a pivotal Middle East tour this week, a flurry of news has emerged on a range of key global challenges.

On the Gaza war: The Trump administration has confirmed it’s holding talks with Hamas, which says it will release a hostage amid renewed hopes of a ceasefire.

On the Ukraine war: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he is prepared to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Istanbul – this announcement came minutes after Trump urged Zelenskyy to agree to the meeting.

On the China-US trade war: The White House says the two countries have agreed to a “trade deal”. China said the talks, in Geneva, were “candid, in-depth and constructive”.

All three of these developments represent dramatic shifts in three separate challenges and hint at the remarkable influence the US president is having globally.

This sets the ground for what could be a truly consequential week for Trump’s presidency and his ability to effect change.

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With his unique style, Trump is seeking to align numerous stars as he embarks on his first foreign diplomatic trip of his second presidency.

For days, it’s been unclear how the week ahead would unfold and which global challenge would be dominant.

The Saudi government has been instrumental as a broker in the Ukraine-Russia conflict and Qatar has been a mediator in the Gaza war.

Trump will visit both countries this week.

President Donald Trump on Air Force One earlier this month. File pic: AP
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President Donald Trump on Air Force One earlier this month. File pic: AP

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Putin under pressure?

On Ukraine, Putin held a late-night news conference at the Kremlin on Saturday at which he made the surprise proposal of talks with Zelenskyy in Istanbul this Thursday.

But he rejected European and US calls for an immediate ceasefire.

The move was widely interpreted as a delay tactic.

Trump then issued a social media post urging Zelenskyy to accept the Russian proposal; effectively to call Putin’s bluff.

The American president wrote: “President Putin of Russia doesn’t want to have a Cease Fire Agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH. Ukraine should agree to this, IMMEDIATELY. At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the U.S., will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly! I’m starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin, who’s too busy celebrating the Victory of World War ll, which could not have been won (not even close!) without the United States of America. HAVE THE MEETING, NOW!!!”

Within minutes, Zelenskyy responded, agreeing to the talks.

“We await a full and lasting ceasefire, starting from tomorrow, to provide the necessary basis for diplomacy. There is no point in prolonging the killings. And I will be waiting for Putin in Türkiye on Thursday. Personally. I hope that this time the Russians will not look for excuses,” Zelenskyy wrote on X.

The prospect of Putin and Zelenskyy together in Istanbul on Thursday is remarkable.

It raises the possibility that Trump would want to be there too.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomes other world leaders to Kyiv. 
Pic: Presidential Office of Ukraine/dpa/AP Images
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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomes other world leaders to Kyiv. Pic: Presidential Office of Ukraine/dpa/AP Images

Israel’s war in Gaza

On Gaza, it’s been announced that US envoy Steve Witkoff will arrive in Israel on Monday to finalise details for the release of Idan Alexander, an Israeli-American hostage being held by Hamas.

The development comes after it was confirmed that Mr Witkoff has been holding discussions with Israel, Qatar and Egypt and, through them, with Hamas.

The talks focused on a possible Gaza hostage deal and larger peace discussions for a ceasefire.

Read more:
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Gaza after around a year and a half of Israeli attacks.
Pic: Reuters/Mahmoud Issa
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Gaza after around a year and a half of Israeli attacks. Pic: Reuters/Mahmoud Issa

Just days ago, Israel announced a new military plan to move back into Gaza.

When do candid talks become a trade deal?

Meanwhile, officials from the United States and China have been holding talks in Geneva, Switzerland, to resolve their trade war, which was instigated by Trump’s tariffs against China.

Late on Sunday evening, the White House released a statement claiming that a trade deal had been struck.

In a written statement, titled “U.S. Announces China Trade Deal in Geneva”, treasury secretary Scott Bessent said: “I’m happy to report that we made substantial progress between the United States and China in the very important trade talks… We will be giving details tomorrow, but I can tell you that the talks were productive. We had the vice premier, two vice ministers, who were integrally involved, Ambassador Jamieson, and myself. And I spoke to President Trump, as did Ambassador Jamieson, last night, and he is fully informed of what is going on. So, there will be a complete briefing tomorrow morning.”

Beijing Global Times newspaper quoted the Chinese vice premier as saying that the talks were candid, in-depth and constructive.

However, the Chinese fell short of calling it a trade deal.

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A Qatari gift

In a separate development, US media reports say that Qatar is preparing to gift Trump a Boeing 747 from its royal fleet, which he would use as a replacement for the existing and aging Air Force One plane.

The Qatari government says no deal has been finalised, but the development is already causing controversy because of the optics of accepting gifts of this value.

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Israel receives hostage’s remains – as Turkey issues arrest warrants for 36 officials involved in the war

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Israel receives hostage's remains - as Turkey issues arrest warrants for 36 officials involved in the war

Israeli troops in Gaza have received the remains of another hostage.

They have now been taken to the National Institute for Forensic Medicine to be examined.

If it is confirmed that they belong to a hostage, this would mean there are five bodies left to be returned under the terms of a ceasefire that began on 10 October.

Israel has also released the bodies of 285 Palestinians – but this identification process is harder because DNA labs are not allowed in Gaza.

Last night’s transfer is a sign of progress in the fragile truce, but some of the remains handed over in recent weeks have not belonged to any of the missing hostages.

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October: Heavy machinery enters Gaza to clear rubble

At times, Israel has accused Hamas of violating the agreement – however, US President Donald Trump has previously acknowledged conditions on the ground in Gaza are difficult.

Meanwhile, UN officials have warned the levels of humanitarian aid flowing into the territory fall well short of what Palestinians require.

Deputy spokesperson Farhan Haqq said more than 200,000 metric tons of aid is positioned to move in – but only 37,000 tons has arrived so far.

Earlier on Friday, hundreds of mourners attended the military funeral of an Israeli-American soldier whose body was returned on Sunday.

Omer Neutra was an Israeli-American soldier. Pic: AP
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Omer Neutra was an Israeli-American soldier. Pic: AP

Captain Omer Neutra was 21 when he was killed by Hamas militants who then took his body into Gaza following the October 7th attacks.

Admiral Brad Cooper, who heads up US Central Command, said during the service: “He is the son of two nations.

“He embodied the best of both the United States and Israel. Uniquely, he has firmly cemented his place in history as the hero of two countries.”

His mother Orna addressed her son’s coffin – and said: “We are all left with the vast space between who you were to us and to the world in your life and what you were yet to become. And with the mission to fill that gap with the light and goodness that you are.”

Read more world news:
Controversial DNA pioneer dies
Trump marks year since election

IDF troops carry the coffin of hostage Omer Neutra. Pic: AP
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IDF troops carry the coffin of hostage Omer Neutra. Pic: AP

In other developments, Turkish prosecutors have issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and 36 other Israeli officials on charges of carrying out “genocide” in Gaza.

They have been accused of crimes against humanity – but the move is highly symbolic since these officials were unlikely to enter Turkey.

Foreign minister Gideon Saar dismissed the warrants, and said: “Israel firmly rejects, with contempt, the latest PR stunt by the tyrant Erdogan.”

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Putin’s right-hand man made him look weak – it may have cost him his seat at Kremlin’s top table

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Putin's right-hand man made him look weak - it may have cost him his seat at Kremlin's top table

In Soviet times, Western observers would scrutinise video footage of state occasions, like military parades on Red Square, to try to learn more about Kremlin hierarchy.

Who was positioned closest to the leader? What did the body language say? Which officials were in and out of favour?

In some ways, not much has changed.

The footage present-day Kremlinologists are currently pouring over is from Wednesday’s landmark meeting of Russia’s Security Council, in which Vladimir Putin told his top officials to start drafting proposals for a possible nuclear weapons test.

It was an important moment. Not one you’d expect a trusted lieutenant to miss. But Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s veteran foreign minister, was conspicuously absent – the only permanent member of the Council not present.

According to the Russian business daily, Kommersant, his absence was “coordinated”.

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US President Donald Trump meets with Russia's President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Pic: AP
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US President Donald Trump meets with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Pic: AP

Sergey Lavrov and Marco Rubio in Alaska. Pic: AP
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Sergey Lavrov and Marco Rubio in Alaska. Pic: AP

That episode alone would have been enough to raise eyebrows.

But coupled with the selection of a more junior official to lead the Russian delegation at the upcoming G20 summit (a role Lavrov has filled in recent years) – well, that’s when questions get asked, namely: Has Moscow’s top diplomat been sidelined?

The question has grown loud enough to force the Kremlin into a denial, but it’s done little to quell speculation that Lavrov has fallen out of favour.

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. File pic: Reuters
Image:
Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. File pic: Reuters

Rumours of a rift have been mounting since Donald Trump called off a planned summit with Putin in Budapest last month, following a phone call between Lavrov and US secretary of state Marco Rubio.

According to the Financial Times, it was Lavrov’s uncompromising stance that prompted the White House to put the summit on ice.

Conversations I had with diplomatic sources here at the time revealed a belief that Lavrov had either dropped the ball or gone off-script. Whether it was by accident or by design, his diplomacy (or lack of it) torpedoed the summit and seemingly set back a US-Russia rapprochement.

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September: Anyone downing aircraft in Russian airspace will ‘regret it’

That would’ve angered Putin, who is keen to engage with Washington, not only on Ukraine but on other issues, like nuclear arms control.

More importantly, perhaps, it made the Russian president appear weak – unable to control his foreign minister. And Putin is not a man who likes to be undermined.

Football fans will be familiar with Sir Alex Ferguson’s golden rule of management: Never let a player grow bigger than the club. Putin operates in a similar fashion. Loyalty is valued extremely highly.

Lavrov meets with his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif in 2015. Pic: Reuters
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Lavrov meets with his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif in 2015. Pic: Reuters

North Korea's Kim Jong Un and Lavrov meet in Pyongyang in 2023. Pic: AP
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North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and Lavrov meet in Pyongyang in 2023. Pic: AP

Lavrov and Chinese counterpart Wang Yi meet in Indonesia in 2022. Pic: Reuters
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Lavrov and Chinese counterpart Wang Yi meet in Indonesia in 2022. Pic: Reuters

If Lavrov has indeed been sidelined, it would be a very significant moment indeed. The 75-year-old has been the face of Russian diplomacy for more than two decades and effectively Putin’s right-hand man for most of the Kremlin leader’s rule.

Known for his abrasive style and acerbic putdowns, Lavrov has also been a vociferous cheerleader for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

At the Putin-Trump summit in Alaska, he arrived wearing a jumper emblazoned with the initials “CCCP”, the Russian letters for USSR. The apparent message: Ukraine still belongs to Moscow.

And in the melee that immediately followed the presidents’ press statements at the summit, I remember racing over to Lavrov as he was leaving and yelling a question to him through the line of security guards.

He didn’t even turn. Instead, he just shouted back: “Who are you?”

It was typical of a diplomatic heavyweight, who’s known for not pulling his punches. But has that uncompromising approach finally taken its toll?

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COP’s potential for change limited not by who turned up, but by the elephants not in the room

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COP's potential for change limited not by who turned up, but by the elephants not in the room

The COP climate summit in Belem opened with a diplomatic double-whammy.

The Prince of Wales and Sir Keir Starmer reaffirmed the UK’s commitment to fighting climate change and urged the rest of the world to do so, too.

But as the tropical rain beat down on the tarpaulin roof of this temporary summit venue, it’s hard not to feel the air going out of the process.

The Prince of Wales is passionate about fighting climate change. Pic: Reuters
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The Prince of Wales is passionate about fighting climate change. Pic: Reuters

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COP30: India’s climate refugees

Sir Keir and Prince William’s presence doesn’t make up for the geopolitical weight of the elephants not in the room.

The leaders of China, the US and India – the world’s three largest contributors to climate change – are no-shows.

Donald Trump’s highly-publicised decision to withdraw America from the UN climate talks is a blow.

Before Mr Trump, America – the world’s largest economy, largest oil and gas producer, and major market for renewable energy – had serious deal-making power here.

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Having formally withdrawn, there is no US delegation.

And, as far as I can tell, any US broadcasters either, so for Americans, this meeting may as well not be happening at all.

Pic: Reuters
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Pic: Reuters

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Cop out: Is net zero dead?

Without the US, things will be harder.

But does that mean the process is doomed?

The leaders of China and India may be absent but they’ve sent high-level delegations.

Read more on COP 30:
Is net zero dead?

Why is COP 30 controversial?

China is represented by vice-premier Ding Xuexiang, the country’s most high-ranking politician after President Xi himself.

And, while China and India might not be big on eco-messaging, between them they are busy driving the most rapid shift away from fossil fuels towards wind, solar and nuclear power the world has ever seen.

What’s more, the real work at these summits isn’t done by heads of state, but experienced sherpas, some of whom have trodden the nylon carpeted corridors of COP for 30 years.

The Prince of Wales with Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Pic: PA
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The Prince of Wales with Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Pic: PA

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Prince takes a tumble on Brazil beach

It’s reasonable to ask what they’ve achieved in all that time.

The commitments of the Paris agreement of a decade ago have been missed by a wide margin.

The world is about to blow past 1.5 degrees of warming and almost certainly exceed two degrees as well.

But when the Paris deal was signed, the trajectory was for four degrees of warming.

There are good COPs and bad COPs, but the world is undoubtedly a safer place now than it would have been without them.

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