Who could win Poland’s presidential election? Here’s everything you need to know
Poland has begun voting for a new president in an election that will test the government’s strength against any resurgence of right-wing populism.
The ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, has sought to reform Polish democracy after ousting the nationalist Law and Justice party in 2023.
But the government has been hamstrung by President Andrzej Duda, an ally of the previous administration, who holds a veto over legislation.
The presidential election – the first round of which is today (Sunday) – is being billed as a choice between two futures for the EU heavyweight.
If Mr Tusk’s ally wins the presidency it could allow the government to push forward with its agenda, while victory for the Law and Justice party may signify a rise of populism in Poland.
Nawrocki and Trzaskowski seen during a debate. Pic: Reuters
Who are the frontrunners?
Leading the polls is Rafal Trzaskowski, the 53-year-old mayor of Warsaw who was narrowly defeated by Mr Duda in the 2020 presidential vote.
Viewed as a progressive, Mr Trzaskowski’s main proposals include increasing defence spending to 5% of GDP, developing Poland’s arms and technology industries and liberalising the country’s abortion laws.
Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski. Pic: Reuters
With Mr Duda unable to run again (presidents in Poland can only serve two terms) the populist side of Polish politics is represented by Karol Nawrocki.
The 42-year-old conservative historian also supports increasing defence spending to 5% of GDP, but unlike Mr Trzaskowski he opposes some LGBT rights and liberalising abortion.
It’s a busy field in the first round of the elections (if one candidate does not receive 50% of the vote, the top two go through to a runoff vote, as happened in 2020), with a number of other candidates throwing their hats in the ring.
Among them are the far-right Slawomir Mentzen in third place, who is the speaker of Poland’s lower house of Parliament, Szymon Holownia, and three leftwing candidates: Magdalena Biejat, Adrian Zandberg and Joanna Senyszyn.
Karol Nawrocki is second in the polls. Pic: Reuters
Ukraine, Russia and Poland’s security
A key issue in the election is how to build Poland’s security in a fast-changing world with Russia waging war on neighbours Ukraine, according to historian and academic Karolina Wigura.
Poland has been one of the staunchest supporters of Ukraine and boasts a powerful military.
Ms Wigura says the conservative Mr Nawrocki has used anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, similar to language used by the previous government.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Pic: Reuters
Ms Wigura told Sky News: “There is a certain fatigue in Polish society connected with the influx of Ukrainians, which is from the sociological point of view quite natural.
“It happens to every country that welcomes a large group of migrants within a relatively short time.”
But Ukrainians are “extremely well-integrated”, she says.
Ms Wigura doesn’t see much changing in terms of actual policy were Mr Nawrocki to win power. She told Sky News: “I would not expect that the practice of Poland’s security system would significantly change. Different rhetoric, but the same core.”
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The Polish NATO base on the frontline with Russia
Migration
Migration and how to prevent it is another key theme going into the elections, with all candidates, including the progressive Mr Trzaskowski, appearing to adopt more robust messaging in response to opinion polls, Ms Wigura says.
“Almost all the candidates, with very few exceptions, tend to argue that Poland should strongly prevent further migration, maybe from the Middle East, maybe from Ukraine or Belarus in general,” she said.
Mr Tusk, as well, has been more critical in his comments around immigration.
Earlier this year, Poland temporarily suspended the right of migrants arriving in Poland via its border with Belarus to apply for asylum.
“Unfortunately, it’s actually very painful to say that this has been the most racist and antisemitic campaign we have observed in Poland since 1989,” Ms Wigura adds.
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Sir Keir Starmer meets Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw. Pic: Reuters
Abortion
Poland has one of the strictest sets of laws in Europe when it comes to abortion.
“The 2023 elections were largely won by the democratic coalition because of the ban,” Ms Wigura says.
But opinions within the coalition are varied, with so many different viewpoints represented within the government.
It’s one of the issues that divides the two frontrunners, with Mr Trzaskowski in favour of liberalising the law and Mr Nawrocki opposes any rollback of recent laws limiting access to abortion.
Pro-Western candidate Nicusor Dan has unexpectedly beaten hard-right populist George Simion in the Romanian presidential election.
Mr Simion, 38, and his rival – a centrist who’s mayor of Bucharest – faced off in the second round of the contest.
According to the official tally, Mr Dan was leading by nearly nine percentage points with more than 98% of the votes counted.
Pic: Reuters
Mr Dan and his supporters celebrated the exit polls. Pic: Reuters
After exit polls suggested he wasn’t going to win, Trump-supporting Mr Simion rejected the result and said estimates put him 400,000 votes ahead.
Speaking after voting ended, Mr Simion said his election was “clear” as he posted on Facebook: “I won!!! I am the new President of Romania and I am giving back the power to the Romanians!”
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George Simion on Trump, the EU – and his message to UK
Romania’s last election was annulled after its highest court ruled the leading candidate, nationalist Calin Georgescu, should be disqualified due to claims of electoral interference by Russia.
The result is surprising because in the first round, 38-year-old Mr Simion, founder of the right-wing Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), took 40.96% of the vote – almost 20 points ahead.
George Simion rejected the polls but official counting saw him slip behind. Pic: Reuters
Supporters of Mr Dan celebrated on the streets of the capital Bucharest. Pic: AP
An opinion poll on Friday had it much closer, but still suggested the two men were virtually tied.
Mr Dan, a 55-year-old mathematician, is running as an independent and has pledged to clamp down on corruption.
He is also staunchly pro-EU and NATO, and has said Romania’s support for Ukraine is vital for its own security.
When voting closed at 9pm local time, 11.6 million people – about 64% of eligible voters – had cast ballots. About 1.64 million Romanians living abroad also took part.
About 11.6 million people – 64% of eligible voters – cast ballots. Pic: AP
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The election is being closely watched across Europe amid a rise of support for President Donald Trump.
After polls closed, Mr Dan said “elections are not about politicians” but about communities and that in the latest vote “a community of Romanians has won, a community that wants a profound change in Romania”.
“When Romania goes through difficult times, let us remember the strength of this Romanian society,” he said.
“There is also a community that lost today’s elections. A community that is rightly outraged by the way politics has been conducted in Romania up to now.”
Israel has said it will allow a “basic quantity of food” into the besieged enclave of Gaza to avoid a “starvation crisis” following a near three-month blockade.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said the decision was “based on the operational need to enable the expansion of the military operation to defeat Hamas”.
Gaza, where local authorities say more than 53,000 people have died in Israel’s 19-month campaign, has been under a complete blockade on humanitarian aid since 2 March.
It comes as global food security experts warn of famine across the territory and after a UN-backed report issued last Monday which warned one in five people in Gaza were facing starvation.
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Israel ramps up bombing in Gaza
The statement from the prime minister’s office said it would “allow a basic quantity of food to be brought in for the population in order to make certain that no starvation crisis develops in the Gaza Strip”.
“Such a crisis would endanger the continuation of Operation ‘Gideon’s Chariots’ to defeat Hamas,” it added.
“Israel will act to deny Hamas’s ability to take control of the distribution of humanitarian assistance in order to ensure that the assistance does not reach the Hamas terrorists.”
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Gaza is ‘a slaughterhouse’ says surgeon
It comes after a British surgeon working in Gaza said in a video to Sky News the enclave is now “a slaughterhouse” amid Israeli bombardment.
Israel has just ramped up its offensive in Gaza, with Palestinian health officials reporting at least 130 people were killed overnight into Sunday.
Israel Defence Forces (IDF) confirmed troops had begun “extensive ground operations throughout the northern and southern Gaza Strip”.
The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza said 464 people had died in Israeli military strikes in the week to Sunday.
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In a statement on Sunday, IDF said its air force struck “over 670 Hamas terror targets throughout the Gaza Strip to disrupt enemy preparations and support ground operations” over the past week.
Israel has launched an escalation to increase pressure on Hamas, seize territory, displace Palestinians to the south and take greater control over the distribution of aid.
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A British surgeon working in southern Gaza has compared the region to a “slaughterhouse” because of the daily bombardment from Israeli forces.
Dr Tom Potokar, who is based at the European Hospital near Khan Younis in southern Gaza, offered his assessment of Israel’s military offensive after Palestinian health officials reported at least 130 people were killed overnight into Sunday.
Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have confirmed their troops have begun “extensive ground operations throughout the northern and southern Gaza Strip”.
In a video, Dr Potokar said it was “another day of devastation here in Gaza”, adding: “The stories coming from the north… absolutely horrific… particularly around the Indonesian Hospital.”
“I mean, it’s difficult to describe in words what’s happening here… [with the] constant sound of bombardment jets overhead.
“If Cambodia was the killing fields, then Gaza now is the slaughterhouse.”
Mourners at a funeral of Palestinians killed in Israeli strikes, at Al Shifa hospital, in Gaza. Pic: Reuters
His reference to Cambodia’s killing fields refers to when more than a million people were murdered in mass executions and buried by the extreme communist guerrilla group, the Khmer Rouge, under Pol Pot, between 1975 and 1979.
The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza said 464 people had died in Israeli military strikes in the week to Sunday.
In a statement on Sunday, IDF said its air force struck “over 670 Hamas terror targets throughout the Gaza Strip to disrupt enemy preparations and support ground operations” over the past week.
A family in grief at a funeral on Sunday in Deir al Balah, central Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Dr Potokar described the impact on those on the ground, saying: “We’ve been operating all morning so far and [treating] awful explosive injuries… [including] one young woman with leg fracture and shoulder fracture and a large wound on her buttock, who came in yesterday and is not yet aware that everyone in our family was killed in the onslaught.”
Israel has launched an escalation of its war in Gaza to ramp up pressure on Hamas, seize territory, displace Palestinians to the south and take greater control over the distribution of aid.
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Israel ramps up bombing in Gaza
On Sunday, it announced and launched “extensive” new ground operations in Gaza.
It came after airstrikes killed more than 100 people, including dozens of children, overnight and into Sunday, hospitals and medics said, and forced northern Gaza’s main hospital to close.
A spokesperson for the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza said: “Complete families were wiped off the civil registration record by Israeli bombardment”.
The ministry also said the bombardment had forced the closure of the Indonesian Hospital, the main hospital serving people in northern Gaza.
Nasser hospital, in the southern city of Khan Younis, said more than 48 people – mostly women and children – were killed in the area which includes tents sheltering displaced people.
In Deir al Balah, in central Gaza, at least 12 people were killed in three separate strikes, according to Al Aqsa Martyrs Hospital and the Nuseirat camp’s Awda Hospital.
Meanwhile, the Gaza health ministry and the Palestinian Civil Defence – which operates under the Hamas-run government – reported that 19 people were killed in several strikes in Jabalia in northern Gaza.
The Israeli military had no immediate comment on the strikes.
Read more from Sky News:
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Ceasefire talks are taking place in Qatar this weekend – with Israel saying they involve discussions on ending the war as well as a truce and hostage deal.
A statement from the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said any lasting truce must include the demilitarisation of Gaza as well as the exile of Hamas militants.
But a senior Israeli official added there had been little progress so far during talks in Qatar’s capital Doha.
Sky News Arabia reported Hamas had proposed freeing about half its Israeli hostages in exchange for a two-month ceasefire and the release of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
A Palestinian official close to the discussions said: “Hamas is flexible about the number of hostages it can free, but the problem has always been over Israel’s commitment to end the war.”
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