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There’s a trick to announcing trade agreements like the one unveiled by the prime minister on Monday: pluck out a big-sounding number and release it to the public with zero context in an effort to make this sound very impressive indeed.

That’s what Donald Trump did last week when he was in Saudi Arabia and it’s what Sir Keir Starmer did on Monday, promising the agreement with the EU should generate a whopping £9bn in gross domestic product (GDP) for the UK.

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Naturally, when you squint a little closer, that figure gets considerably less impressive than it first seems.

After all, by 2040 – the year the government was referring to – £9bn will equate to roughly 0.2 percent of GDP, only a tiny fraction of the negative impact most economists have estimated Brexit will have on the economy (the OBR puts it at -4 percent).

Sir Keir Starmer and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen at a news conference. Pic: PA
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Sir Keir Starmer and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen at a news conference. Pic: PA

Whether those negative estimates are any more reliable than the one the prime minister came up with on Monday is a debate for another day, but anyway, this is one of those cases where the numbers are perhaps somewhat less meaningful than the politics.

For one thing, even that seemingly small 0.2 percent of GDP is actually bigger than the calculated impact of the India trade deal unveiled earlier this month (and almost certainly bigger than any other trade deal signed since Brexit).

That’s because a small percentage of a big number is still a relatively big number, and Britain trades more with its neighbours than any other country in the world.

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Anyway, more consequential than any numbers is the fact that this government has committed to something its predecessors refused to countenance: aligning certain regulations (most notably food standards) with the European Union.

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Who wins from the UK-EU deal?

Previous Conservative governments all shied away from doing so – for fear, they said, of undermining their ability to seek free trade deals with other countries that would insist on greater access to their food markets.

Countries like the US and India.

That Starmer has managed to seal agreements with those two countries while still agreeing to align food standards with the EU is certainly a diplomatic coup. But it carries with it certain profound consequences.

For one thing, it more or less rules out the prospects of Britain ever sealing a proper comprehensive trade deal with the US (as opposed to the rather limited agreements it has actually signed).

It will push Britain over a regulatory Rubicon that was, up until now, seen as politically untenable.

If you are one of those people who believe that, like it or not, Britain is fated to edge gradually closer to Europe, ending up decades hence with what one might describe as a “Swiss-style deal” with Europe, then Monday’s events will have given you no reason to challenge your assumption.

What, after all, is a Swiss-style deal but a constellation of complex bilateral agreements with Europe that fall short of single market or customs union membership, while locking the parties into a sort of uncomfortable regulatory convergence?

No one in government will ever describe it this way, of course.

But while Monday’s agreement doesn’t amount to much in statistical terms, it nonetheless tips Britain down a path towards a Swiss-style arrangement – with all that goes with it.

That certainly is a big deal.

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Coinbase crypto lobby urges Congress to back major crypto bill

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Coinbase crypto lobby urges Congress to back major crypto bill

Coinbase crypto lobby urges Congress to back major crypto bill

US House lawmakers have been urged by 65 crypto organizations to pass the CLARITY Act, which would hand most policing of crypto to the CFTC.

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Reform UK poses ‘very serious threat’ to Labour, Welsh first minister warns

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Reform UK poses 'very serious threat' to Labour, Welsh first minister warns

The threat from Reform in Wales is “very serious”, the country’s Labour leader said as exclusive polling revealed Nigel Farage’s party is the first choice for Welsh voters.

Speaking to Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast, Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan said: “We think the threat from Reform is a very serious threat.

“I think it is important people recognise that things that we see every day in our lives in Wales may be snatched away from us, and the kind of stability that we’ve had for a long time.”

Eluned Morgan
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Eluned Morgan spoke to Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast

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Ms Morgan admitted “we’ve got a lot of work to do to get voters back” ahead of the May 2026 Senedd (Welsh parliament) elections – something backed up by exclusive polling that reveals Reform is beating Welsh Labour, who have been in power in the Senedd since 1999.

A More in Common poll for Sky News found 28% of people in Wales would vote for Reform if an election for the Senedd was called tomorrow.

That was followed closely by nationalist party Plaid Cymru on 26%, Labour with 23%, the Conservatives on 10%, Lib Dems with 7%, the Green Party with 4% and 2% for other parties or independent candidates.

Eluned Morgan said she would never go into a coalition with Reform
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Eluned Morgan said she would never go into a coalition with Reform

Of those who voted for Labour at last year’s general election, less than half (48%) would vote for them again, while 15% would go to Plaid Cymru and 11% to Reform – although 13% were undecided.

A total of 883 people representative of the Welsh population were asked from 18 June to 3 July.

Last month, Mr Farage told an event in the steel town of Port Talbot, he would reopen Welsh coal mines to provide fuel for blast furnaces.

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Beth Rigby spoke to Welsh First Minister and Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan
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Beth Rigby spoke to Welsh First Minister and Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan

Ms Morgan said she will not be “chasing Reform down a path… because those aren’t my values”.

“What we’ll be doing is offering a very clear alternative, which is about bringing communities together,” she said.

“I think it’s really important that we’re authentic and we’re clear with people about what we stand for.

“I think we’ve got to lead with our values so we’re about bringing communities together not dividing them and I do think that’s what reform is interested in is dividing people and people do need to make choices on things like that.”

She admitted “there is a possibility” Reform could be the largest party in the Senedd “and that is really concerning”.

Nigel Farage
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Nigel Farage in Wales

However, she said the way voting in Wales works means it would be “difficult for them to rule by themselves”.

Would she go into coalition with Reform?

“I wouldn’t touch Reform with a barge pole,” she said.

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‘A threat to national security’: Fears drones could be used to lift inmates out of prisons

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Drones are sending 'overwhelming amounts' of drugs into prisons - and could help inmates escape, report warns

Sophisticated drones sending “overwhelming amounts” of drugs and weapons into prisons represent a threat to national security, according to an annual inspection report by the prisons watchdog.

HMP chief inspector of prisons Charlie Taylor has warned criminal gangs are targeting jails and making huge profits selling contraband to a “vulnerable and bored” prison population.

The watchdog boss reiterated his concerns about drones making regular deliveries to two Category A jails, HMP Long Lartin and HMP Manchester, which hold “the most dangerous men in the country”, including terrorists.

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Ex-convict: Prison is ‘birthing bigger criminals’

Mr Taylor said “the police and prison service have in effect ceded the airspace” above these two high-security prisons, which he said was compromising the “safety of staff, prisoners, and ultimately that of the public”.

“The possibility now whereby we’re seeing packages of up to 10kg brought in by serious organised crime means that in some prisons there is now a menu of drugs available,” he said. “Anything from steroids to cannabis, to things like spice and cocaine.”

“Drone technology is moving fast… there is a level of risk that’s posed by drones that I think is different from what we’ve seen in the past,” warned the chief inspector – who also said there’s a “theoretical risk” that a prisoner could escape by being carried out of a jail by a drone.

He urged the prison service to “get a grip” of the issue, stating: “We’d like to see the government, security services, coming together, using technology, using intelligence, so that this risk doesn’t materialise.”

The report highlights disrepair at prisons around the country
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The report highlights disrepair at prisons around the country

The report makes clear that physical security – such as netting, windows and CCTV – is “inadequate” in some jails, including Manchester, with “inexperienced staff” being “manipulated”.

Mr Taylor said there are “basic” measures which could help prevent the use of drones, such as mowing the lawn, “so we don’t get packages disguised as things like astro turf”.

Responding to the report, the Prison Advice and Care Trust (PACT) said: “The ready access to drugs is deeply worrying and is undermining efforts to create places of rehabilitation.”

Mr Taylor’s report found that overcrowding continues to be what he described as a “major issue”, with increasing levels of violence against staff and between prisoners, combined with a lack of purposeful activity.

Some 20% of adult men responding to prisoner surveys said they felt unsafe at the time of the inspection, increasing to 30% in the high security estate.

Andrea Coomber, chief executive of the Howard League for Penal Reform, said: “This report is a checklist for all the reasons the government must prioritise reducing prison numbers, urgently.

“Sentencing reform is essential, and sensible steps to reduce the prison population would save lives.”

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May: Male prison capacity running at 99%

The report comes after the government pledged to accept most of the recommendations proposed in the independent review of sentencing policy, with the aim of freeing up around 9,500 spaces.

Those measures won’t come into effect until spring 2026.

Prisons Minister Lord Timpson said Mr Taylor’s findings show “the scale of the crisis” the government “inherited”, with “prisons dangerously full, rife with drugs and violence”.

He said: “After just 500 prison places added in 14 years, we’re building 14,000 extra – with 2,400 already delivered – and reforming sentencing to ensure we never run out of space again.

“We’re also investing £40m to bolster security, alongside stepping up cooperation with police to combat drones and stop the contraband which fuels violence behind bars.”

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