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Has Labour got the right strategy to tackle Reform UK?

Nigel Farage’s party cost the Tories dozens, maybe 100-plus seats at the general election. Now it looks like the party is hitting Labour too. But has Sir Keir Starmer got the right answers?

Coates

Last year, Labour won a landslide because the Tory vote collapsed, in part because Reform UK took chunks of their supporters in constituencies across the UK.

And here is the situation on 1 May this year – the national equivalent vote share at the council elections put Reform well ahead in first place. Success – this time at the expense of Labour too.

Coates

How big a threat is this to MPs? As a very crude experiment, Sky News has looked at what would happen if this result was replicated evenly across parliamentary constituencies.

Within the areas where there were county council elections are 77 complete Westminster seats with sitting Labour MPs.

This includes places like Wycombe, where Treasury minister Emma Reynolds holds. Or Lincoln, won by Foreign Office minister Hamish Falconer.

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Now if – for fun – we mapped the country council results from 1 May evenly across these general election constituencies, almost all those Labour seats are gone. All lost, apart from five. That’s 72 out of 77 Labour MPs losing their seats and mostly to Reform UK.

What if we took that swing an applied across the whole country, places where there weren’t local elections?

Angela Rayner in Greater Manchester and Jess Phillips in Birmingham would lose their seats.

Yes this is a crude measure – it assumes a uniform swing can be drawn from the 1 May polls – and local and national elections are very different.

But importantly, YouGov’s latest national opinion polls paint a similar picture to the council elections. Meanwhile, 89 out of 98 constituencies where Reform came second place have Labour in first. Labour MPs are feeling the heat from Farage.

The Reform threat is real. Sir Keir Starmer knows it – and this year has started chasing Reform votes. Slashing aid spending. Abandoning green promises. Hard talk about immigration and living on an “Island of Strangers”.

Sensible given the clear and evident Reform UK threat? Actually – maybe not. Look at the data in detail:

Coates

This block here is all the people who voted Labour in last year’s general election. Now thanks to YouGov polling, we know what people in this block would do with their vote now.

It shows Labour has lost more than half of last year’s voters. Just 46% still say they’d still vote for Sir Keir’s party. But – despite the PM’s strategy – they’re not actually going to Reform in large numbers.

Just 6% of Labour’s voters at last year’s general election – six out of every 100 – said they would vote Reform now. That’s all. So where have they gone?

Well, they’ve been lost much more to liberal and left-wing parties – 12% to the Lib Dems, 9% to the Greens.

So just pause there. That means the number of Labour voters who have switched to the Lib Dems and Greens, arguably on the left of the political spectrum, is three times the number going to Reform to the right.

Just 2% go to the Tories.

And much more seriously for Labour, 22% aren’t going to vote, don’t know or won’t say.

Coates

The bottom line is people who voted Reform have never backed Labour in large numbers.

This shows how Reform supporters last year voted in each election since 2005. You can see – Reform voters are former UKIP voters. They’re Boris Johnson’s Tories.

Let’s put it another way. While 11% of Labour voters may one day be open to voting Reform, 70% are at risk of going to the Lib Dems or Greens – seven times the threat from Reform.

And typically, these voters don’t like the hard line, Reform-leaning policies of Sir Keir Starmer recently.

The local elections show there is a threat to Labour from Reform. But our data suggests Keir Starmer trying to be Nigel Farage lite isn’t the answer.

Is Labour’s strategy really working?

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Met Police calls for protest against Palestine Action ban to be cancelled after Manchester synagogue attack

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Met Police calls for protest against Palestine Action ban to be cancelled after Manchester synagogue attack

The Metropolitan Police has called for a planned protest in support of the banned Palestine Action group to be delayed or cancelled after Thursday’s synagogue attack in Manchester.

In a statement, the force said it wanted to deploy every available officer to protect Jewish communities, but was instead having to prepare for Saturday’s planned gathering in London’s Trafalgar Square.

Palestine Action was banned under anti-terrorism laws in July.

Politics latest: Mahmood says pro-Palestinian protests ‘dishonourable’ after Manchester attack

“The horrific terrorist attack that took place in Manchester yesterday will have caused significant fear and concern in communities across the UK, including here in London,” the Met said.

“Yet at a time when we want to be deploying every available officer to ensure the safety of those communities, we are instead having to plan for a gathering of more than 1,000 people in Trafalgar Square on Saturday in support of a terrorist organisation.

“By choosing to encourage mass law breaking on this scale, Defend Our Juries [the protest organisers] are drawing resources away from the communities of London at a time when they are needed most.”

But Defend Our Juries, which has led demonstrations against the ban on Palestine Action, said it planned to go ahead with the march.

A statement from the group on social media said: “Today, the Metropolitan Police wrote to us to ask that we postpone Saturday’s mass protest in Trafalgar Square, citing ‘significant pressure on policing’.

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“Our response in short: Don’t arrest us then.”

It comes after the home secretary criticised separate pro-Palestinian protests held last night as “fundamentally un-British” and “dishonourable”.

A demonstration – held to protest the Israeli navy halting a flotilla carrying aid to Gaza – was held in London’s Whitehall on Thursday evening, hours after the attack in Crumpsall that killed two Jewish men.

The Metropolitan Police said 40 people had been arrested in the course of the protest, six of whom were arrested for assaults on police officers.

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Mahmood ‘disappointed’ with pro-Palestine protests

Speaking to Anna Jones on Sky News Breakfast, Shabana Mahmood said she was “very disappointed” to see the protests go ahead, given the context.

“I think that behaviour is fundamentally un-British,” she said. “I think it’s dishonourable.”

She said the issues that had been driving the pro-Palestine protests have been “going on for some time” and “don’t look like they’re going to come to an end any day soon” – but that those behind the demonstrations could have taken a “step back”.

“They could have stepped back and just given a community that has suffered deep loss just a day or two to process what has happened and to carry on with the grieving process,” she said.

“I think some humanity could have been shown.”

Any further protests must “comply with the law and, where someone steps outside of the law of our land, they will be arrested”, the home secretary warned.

She added: “And to anybody who is thinking about going on a protest, what I would say is, imagine if that was you that has had a family member murdered on the holiest day in your faith. Imagine how you would feel and then just step back for a minute, give people a chance to grieve.

“We can get back to our protests later – just because you have a freedom doesn’t mean you have to use it.”

However, Zack Polanski, the leader of the Green Party, accused the home secretary of being “deeply irresponsible” for her comments about pro-Palestine protests.

“I think ultimately conflating protests against the genocide in Gaza and ultimately weaponising that against an anti-Semitic attack on our streets, a terrorist attack, is deeply irresponsible,” he told Sky News Breakfast.

The Green Party leader said it was “worrying when governments are increasingly trying to crush down dissent” and using “what is a brutal attack… to try and make a point about protest”.

“We need statesmanship at this moment. We need responsibility,” he added.

The two men killed outside the Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue in Thursday’s attack have been named by police as Adrian Daulby, 53, and Melvin Cravitz, 66.

The suspect has been named as Jihad al Shamie – a 35-year-old British citizen of Syrian descent.

He is understood to have been granted British citizenship in 2006 when he was around 16 years old, having entered the UK as a young child.

Ms Mahmood confirmed to Sky News that the perpetrator was not known to counter-terror police and that he had not been referred to the government’s anti-terrorism scheme Prevent.

Three other people – two men in their 30s and a woman in her 60s – have been arrested on suspicion of the commission, preparation and instigation of acts of terrorism.

Read more:
What we know about the attack
Starmer vows to ‘wrap arms’ around Jewish community

Asked if she was concerned about further attacks, Ms Mahmood said the government was on “high alert”.

She said there had been an increase in police resources not just in Manchester but across he country.

“We as a government want to make sure that people feel safe going about their business today; so people will see an increased police presence, particularly around synagogues and other places of interest for the Jewish community,” she said.

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The Green Party might be small but it’s thinking big – can it make a dent in Reform’s rise?

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The Green Party might be small but it's thinking big - can it make a dent in Reform's rise?

It’s a small party with big ambition, a handful of MPs led by a controversial but charismatic leader determined to turn anti-establishment sentiment into a major political breakthrough.

No, not Reform – it’s the Greens with a palpable new air of brashness and confidence that will be making waves this weekend, as their party conference commences in the seaside town of Bournemouth.

As a movement in the UK, they have maintained a steadfast presence over many years but have failed to really cut through nationally, with disenfranchised left-wingers more inclined to drift to the Lib Dems.

The last general election was different though, taking them from one to four MPs – no mean feat in a first past the post system.

And now a potent mixture of fractured politics and mass disappointment at Labour’s faltering first year in office has left an opportunity for even greater advancement.

Ready to seize it is their newly elected leader, Zack Polanski, whose style seems well-suited to the current climate and is far more confrontational than his gentler predecessors.

He is adept at social media and takes to it with an ease almost every other politician can only dream of – no clunky attempts at mimicking influencers or boring walking and talking in the constituency videos.

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Instead, he goes out and interviews voters himself, coming across as interested and persuasive and has even started his own podcast, which is well-executed and engaging.

Another explanation of their current momentum is their policies which are clear, memorable and indicative of their values – something that most political parties aim for but don’t often achieve.

The Greens would bring in a wealth tax aimed at the super rich, they would nationalise the water companies, they describe the assault on Gaza as genocide, they support self-ID for trans people, and of course, they want to protect the environment.

And I remembered all that without googling – how’s that for landing your message?

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‘We don’t have time to wait for Corbyn’

But of course, like all parties, especially those gaining support, they face challenges and criticism.

Their biggest obstacle as they grow will be maintaining unity amongst the increasingly disparate factions of new Green voters.

Is it possible to happily combine countryside-loving former Tories with angry ex-Labour city dwellers, pro-Gaza Muslims and trans activists?

So far, they seem to be managing it, but we’ll find out over the next few days if any cracks are starting to appear.

Another big obstacle is Nigel Farage, a figure uniquely skilled at demanding attention and dominating the political landscape.

When it comes to hoovering up the support of the disenfranchised, he’s been doing it for decades and it’s paying off, with polls now tipping him for prime minister.

Read more:
People in the UK have less disposable income

The battle for the soul of Your Party continues

Mr Polanski will accuse Labour of playing “handmaidens” to Reform’s “dangerous politics” rather than confronting it.

“When Farage says jump, Labour asks ‘how high’,” he will say.

Despite the Greens having a comparable number of MPs, they are not making the same kind of progress and like every other leader, Mr Polanksi will have to work out how to make a dent in Reform’s rise.

At the same time, they have a tricky challenger from their own side, with Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana’s chaotic new party likely to eat into their vote, if it can survive.

And finally, they also face the standard criticisms – that their sums don’t add up, that their tax and spend plans are unrealistic, that they are woke and disconnected – all of which they will need to take on to get closer to power.

These are just some of the issues that will come up in Bournemouth this weekend, where the forecast predicts a storm is coming – let’s see.

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SEC silent on Canary Litecoin ETF amid gov shutdown

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SEC silent on Canary Litecoin ETF amid gov shutdown

SEC silent on Canary Litecoin ETF amid gov shutdown

The US Securities and Exchange Commission has seemingly missed its decision deadline for the Canary Litecoin ETF, adding to uncertainty amid a government shutdown and new generic listing standards.

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