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Sex offenders could face chemical castration and thousands of offenders will be released after serving a third of their jail term, under plans proposed in a sentencing policy review set to be accepted by ministers.

The independent review, led by the former justice secretary David Gauke, was commissioned by the government amid an overcrowding crisis in prisons in England and Wales.

It has made a series of recommendations with the aim of reducing the prison population by 9,800 people by 2028.

The key proposal, which it is understood the government will implement, is a “progression model” – which would see offenders who behave well in jail only serve a third of their term in custody, before being released.

The measure will apply to people serving standard determinate sentences, which is the most common type of jail term, being served by the majority of offenders.

It will be based on sentence length, rather than offence type. That means sex offenders and domestic abusers serving sentences of under four years, could all be eligible for early release.

The policy will mean inmates serve only a third of their sentence in prison, a third on licence in the community, with the remaining portion under no probation supervision at all.

If the offender committed further offences in the “at risk” – or final – stages of their sentence, once out of prison, they would be sent back to jail to serve the remainder of the original sentence, plus time inside jail for the new offence.

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Is government ‘prepared to be unpopular’ over prisons?

Chemical castration trial could be extended

The government will also further the use of medication to suppress the sexual drive of sex offenders, which is currently being piloted in southwest England.

The review recommended that chemical castration “may assist in management of suitable sex offenders both in prison and in the community”.

Ministers are to announce plans for a nationwide rollout, and will first expand the use of the medication to 20 prisons across England.

The justice secretary is also considering whether to make castration mandatory. It’s currently voluntary.

Mr Gauke, the chair of the independent sentencing review, told Sky News that “drugs that reduce sexual desire” will not be “appropriate for every sexual offender”.

“I’m not going to claim it’s the answer for everything,” the former justice secretary said. “This is about reducing the risk of re-offending in future.

“There are some sex offenders who want to reduce their desires and if we can explore this, I think that is something that’s worthwhile.”

However, Mr Gauke stressed that the government needs to focus on “reducing crime overall”.

TUESDAY MAY 14 File photo dated 29/04/13 of a general view of a Prison. Dangerous criminals including a domestic abuser who posed a risk to children have been freed from jail early as part of a Government bid to cut overcrowding, a watchdog has warned. Issue date: Tuesday May 14, 2024.
Image:
Prisons in England and Wales are facing an overcrowding crisis. File pic: PA

Domestic abuse commissioner criticises plans

Under his recommendations, violent offenders who are serving sentences of four years or more could be released on licence after spending half of their sentence behind bars. This could be extended if they do not comply with prison rules. These prisoners would then be supervised in the community until 80% of their sentence.

In response to the review, the police have warned: “Out of prison should not mean out of control.”

“If we are going to have fewer people in prison, we need to ensure that we collectively have the resources and powers to manage the risk offenders pose outside of prison,” said Chief Constable Sacha Hatchett at the National Police Chiefs Council.

The domestic abuse commissioner for England and Wales, Nicole Jacobs, said adopting the measures would amount to “watering down” the criminal justice system.

“By adopting these measures the government will be sending a clear message to domestic abusers that they can now offend with little consequence,” she said.

In a set of proposals considered to be the biggest overhaul of sentencing power laws since the 1990s, judges could be given more flexibility to punish lower level offenders with bans on football or driving.

The review has also recommended that short sentences should only be used in “exceptional circumstances”, suggesting they are “associated with higher proven reoffending” and “fall short in providing meaningful rehabilitation to offenders”.

The Howard League for Penal Reform has welcomed the proposals as a “good start”.

“This is a vital review that makes the case for change by focusing on the evidence on what will reduce reoffending and prevent more people becoming victims of crime,” said chief executive Andrea Coomber.

David Gauke’s review has called on the government to “invest” in a probation service that is “under significant strain”, as its proposals recommend a larger number of offenders should be punished and supervised in the community.

“Tagging can be a useful way to monitor offenders and identify escalating risks,” it said.

The government is set to invest a further £700m in the probation service and introduce a mass expansion of tagging technology, where tens of thousands of criminals will be monitored at any one time, creating a “prison outside of a prison”, with the help of US tech companies.

‘Overriding concerns’

The Victims Commissioner, Baroness Newlove, has expressed an “overriding concern” about the ability of an “already stretched probation service” to “withstand the additional pressure” of managing a larger number of people outside of prison.

The policy review also makes recommendations around offenders that are recalled to prison after breaching their licence conditions.

Currently, around 15% of those behind bars are there because they have been recalled. Mostly, it’s for breaching of licence conditions, rather than further offences.

The review recommends a “tighter threshold” for recall so that it is “only used to address consistent non-compliance”, with licence conditions – which can include missing a probation appointment.

Read more:
Minister refuses to rule out ‘supermax’ prisons
Victim watchdog questions offenders’ early release

Last week the government announced plans that will see offenders serving one to four-year sentences held for a fixed 28-day period if they are returned to jail.

The review suggests increasing that limit to 56 days, in order to “allow sufficient time for planning around appropriate conditions for safe re-release into community supervision”.

The government is expected to accept the review’s key measures, and implement them with a sentencing bill before parliament.

The plans will likely require legislation and only be before the courts by the spring of 2026.

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Economy will have to be ‘strong enough’ for U-turn on winter fuel, business secretary says

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Economy will have to be 'strong enough' for U-turn on winter fuel, business secretary says

The economy will have to be “strong enough” for the government to U-turn on winter fuel payment cuts, the business secretary has said.

Jonathan Reynolds, talking to Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast, also said the public would have to “wait for the actual budget” to make an announcement on it.

Sir Keir Starmer said on Wednesday he would ease the cut to the winter fuel payment, which has been removed from more than 10 million pensioners this winter after it became means-tested.

He and his ministers had insisted they would stick to their guns on the policy, even just hours before Sir Keir revealed his change of heart at Prime Minister’s Questions.

But Mr Reynolds revealed there is more at play to be able to change the policy.

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Winter fuel payment cuts to be reversed

“The economy has got to be strong enough to give you the capacity to make the kind of decisions people want us to see,” he said.

“We want people to know we’re listening.

“All the prime minister has said is ‘look, he’s listening, he’s aware of it.

“He wants a strong economy to be able to deliver for people.

“You’d have to wait for the actual budget to do that.”

Read more:
Gordon Brown suggests people on top income tax rate should be excluded from winter fuel

What are the options for winter fuel payments?

  • The Institute for Fiscal Studies has looked into the government’s options after Sir Keir Starmer said he is considering changes to the cut to winter fuel payment (WFP).
  • The government could make a complete U-turn on removing the payment from pensioners not claiming pension credit so they all receive it again.
  • There could be a higher eligibility threshold. Households not claiming pension credit could apply directly for the winter fuel payment, reporting their income and other circumstances.
  • Or, all pensioner households could claim it but those above a certain income level could do a self-assessment tax return to pay some of it back as a higher income tax charge. This could be like child benefit, where the repayment is based on the higher income member of the household.
  • Instead of reducing pension credit by £1 for every £1 of income, it could be withdrawn more slowly to entitle more households to it, and therefore WFP.
  • At the moment, WFP is paid to households but if it was paid to individuals the government could means-test each pensioner, rather than their household. This could be based on an individual’s income, which the government already records for tax purposes. Individuals who have a low income could get the payment, even if their spouse is high income. This would mean low income couples getting twice as much, whereas each eligible house currently gets the same.
  • Instead of just those receiving pension credit getting WFP, the government could extend it to pensioners who claim means-tested welfare for housing or council tax support. A total of 430,000 renting households would be eligible at a cost of about £100m a year.
  • Pensioners not on pension credit but receiving disability credits could get WFP, extending eligibility to 1.8m households in England and Scotland at a cost of about £500m a year.
  • Pensioners living in a band A-C property could be automatically entitled to WFP, affected just over half (6.3m).

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has committed to just one major fiscal event a year, meaning just one annual budget in the autumn.

Autumn budgets normally take place in October, with the last one at the end of the month.

If this year’s budget is around the same date it will leave little time for the extra winter fuel payments to be made as they are paid between November and December.

You can listen to the full interview on tomorrow’s Electoral Dysfunction podcast

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Semiconductor exemptions don’t matter when it comes to tariffs

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Semiconductor exemptions don’t matter when it comes to tariffs

Semiconductor exemptions don’t matter when it comes to tariffs

Opinion by: Ahmad Shadid of O.xyz

Semiconductors scored a rare exemption from US President Donald Trump’s aggressive reciprocal tariffs, but the relief is symbolic at best. Most semiconductors enter the US embedded in servers, GPUs, laptops, and smartphones. 

The finished goods remain heavily tariffed, some with duties reaching up to 49%. The exemption looks good politically but delivers little practical benefit. Nvidia’s DGX systems, crucial for training advanced AI models, do not fall under the exempted HTS codes. Nvidia could pay effective tariffs nearing 40% on these vital components. Such costs threaten to stall critical AI infrastructure projects across the country. 

Semiconductor tariffs may compromise the goal of the CHIPS Act. The act promised tens of billions of dollars in subsidies to support domestic chip manufacturing. Yet advanced lithography machines — key equipment from countries like the Netherlands and Japan — face 20%–24% tariffs. Ironically, tariffs designed to boost American production increase the cost of essential manufacturing equipment.

The effect of new tariffs is already slowing progress in critical supply chains — just as generative AI and large language models are gaining momentum across sectors like finance and defense. Any delays or cost increases now could blunt America’s technological advantage.

Indirect costs undermine exemptions for AI

Modern semiconductor supply chains are global and highly integrated. An exemption on raw silicon means nothing when servers, GPUs and other finished products face steep tariffs. Tariffs indirectly inflate costs, eliminating any competitive advantage from domestic manufacturing.

Indirect tariff costs hit high-end systems disproportionately hard. The effect ripples through AI model training, data center expansions and major infrastructure projects, significantly slowing the industry’s momentum.

Tariff impasse halts investment

So far, it’s clear that the US president’s tariff plan didn’t follow any conventional economic trends or calculated strategy. The uncertain tariff situation stalls investment decisions across the technology sector. Companies need predictable costs to justify large capital expenditures. Ongoing tariff volatility prevents them from committing resources to new data centers and manufacturing lines.

This mirrors the supply chain chaos of 2020. At that time, uncertainty caused massive order cancellations and slowed industry recovery for years. If tariff ambiguity continues, we could see similar waves of cancellations in 2025. This would further compound existing inventory and revenue issues in the semiconductor sector.

Domestic production is not optimal

The border argument for these tariffs is that they’re meant to boost domestic production. They do little, however, to encourage genuine domestic semiconductor production. Despite subsidies under the CHIPS Act, most US semiconductor companies still rely on international foundries for manufacturing. Instead, they face increased equipment and operational costs.

Recent: How trade wars impact stocks and crypto

The idea that tariffs promote domestic production ignores the reality of global semiconductor manufacturing. Costs rise across the board, putting American companies at a disadvantage rather than offering protection.

AI projects face heightened risk

The blockchain and crypto sectors, particularly AI-driven projects, also feel the pinch. Projects depend heavily on GPUs and high-performance servers for mining, validating transactions and running decentralized AI computations. Increased hardware costs directly affect profitability and growth, potentially stalling innovation in blockchain applications. 

AI developments have just started to pick up the pace in the blockchain and Web3 space. The industry saw increased interest from investors and VCs just a year ago. So, they are still on tighter budgets. Elevated costs can, however, lead to stagnation. We might see innovators and developers exiting the market. The ripple effect extends beyond the general technology sector and could threaten future digital economies. 

Moreover, these cost pressures disproportionately affect startups and smaller tech firms. Industry giants can absorb additional expenses, but innovative, smaller players face existential threats. This dynamic risks stifling innovation at the grassroots level, harming the entire tech ecosystem.

What to expect 

Semiconductors have momentarily escaped direct tariffs, but the exemption provides little benefit. Tariffs continue to hit finished products, driving up indirect costs across the industry. Instead of boosting domestic manufacturing, these tariffs create economic paralysis, stall critical infrastructure projects, and threaten America’s lead in AI innovation. Policymakers must acknowledge these realities and adjust their approach before irreversible damage is done to the nation’s technological future.

Opinion by: Ahmad Shadid of O.xyz.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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US lawmaker introduces anti-corruption bill ahead of Trump’s dinner

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<div>US lawmaker introduces anti-corruption bill ahead of Trump's dinner</div>

<div>US lawmaker introduces anti-corruption bill ahead of Trump's dinner</div>

California Representative Maxine Waters, ranking member of the US House Financial Services Committee, has announced plans to introduce legislation “to block [Donald] Trump’s memecoin and stop his crypto corruption.”

In a May 22 notice, Rep. Waters said the Stop Trading, Retention, and Unfair Market Payoffs (TRUMP) in Crypto Act of 2025 bill would be aimed at blocking the US President, Vice President, members of Congress, and their families from engaging in “crypto crime.” The US lawmaker referred to Trump and his wife, Melania, issuing personal memecoins in January, his family launching a stablecoin, USD1, through the crypto platform World Liberty Financial, and the president attempting to establish a national Bitcoin (BTC) reserve as his sons back a BTC mining venture.

“Donald Trump is preparing to dine with the top donors of his memecoin who’ve made him, and his family, richer,” said Waters, adding:

“Trump’s crypto con is not just a scam to target investors. It’s also a dangerous backdoor for selling influence over American policies to the highest foreign bidder.”

Government, Donald Trump, Corruption, Memecoin
HR 3573, Stop TRUMP in Crypto Act of 2025, introduced by Rep. Maxine Waters. Source: House Financial Services Committee Democrats

Waters’ bill was one of many actions announced to oppose the president’s dinner to reward memecoin holders. Senators Chris Murphy and Elizabeth Warren are expected to attend a press event with representatives for the consumer advocacy group Public Citizen, and two Democratic organizations will protest at the Trump National Golf Club outside Washington, DC, where the memecoin dinner will be held.

This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.

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