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The economy will have to be “strong enough” for the government to U-turn on winter fuel payment cuts, the business secretary has said.

Jonathan Reynolds, talking to Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast, also said the public would have to “wait for the actual budget” to make an announcement on it.

You can listen to the full interview on tomorrow’s Electoral Dysfunction podcast.

Sir Keir Starmer said on Wednesday he would ease the cut to the winter fuel payment, which has been removed from more than 10 million pensioners this winter after it became means-tested.

He and his ministers had insisted they would stick to their guns on the policy, even just hours before Sir Keir revealed his change of heart at Prime Minister’s Questions.

But Mr Reynolds revealed there is more at play to be able to change the policy.

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Winter fuel payment cuts to be reversed

“The economy has got to be strong enough to give you the capacity to make the kind of decisions people want us to see,” he said.

“We want people to know we’re listening.

“All the prime minister has said is ‘look, he’s listening, he’s aware of it.

“He wants a strong economy to be able to deliver for people.

“You’d have to wait for the actual budget to do that.”

Read more:
Gordon Brown suggests people on top income tax rate should be excluded from winter fuel

What are the options for winter fuel payments?

  • The Institute for Fiscal Studies has looked into the government’s options after Sir Keir Starmer said he is considering changes to the cut to winter fuel payment (WFP).
  • The government could make a complete U-turn on removing the payment from pensioners not claiming pension credit so they all receive it again.
  • There could be a higher eligibility threshold. Households not claiming pension credit could apply directly for the winter fuel payment, reporting their income and other circumstances.
  • Or, all pensioner households could claim it but those above a certain income level could do a self-assessment tax return to pay some of it back as a higher income tax charge. This could be like child benefit, where the repayment is based on the higher income member of the household.
  • Instead of reducing pension credit by £1 for every £1 of income, it could be withdrawn more slowly to entitle more households to it, and therefore WFP.
  • At the moment, WFP is paid to households but if it was paid to individuals the government could means-test each pensioner, rather than their household. This could be based on an individual’s income, which the government already records for tax purposes. Individuals who have a low income could get the payment, even if their spouse is high income. This would mean low income couples getting twice as much, whereas each eligible house currently gets the same.
  • Instead of just those receiving pension credit getting WFP, the government could extend it to pensioners who claim means-tested welfare for housing or council tax support. A total of 430,000 renting households would be eligible at a cost of about £100m a year.
  • Pensioners not on pension credit but receiving disability credits could get WFP, extending eligibility to 1.8m households in England and Scotland at a cost of about £500m a year.
  • Pensioners living in a band A-C property could be automatically entitled to WFP, affected just over half (6.3m).

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has committed to just one major fiscal event a year, meaning just one annual budget in the autumn.

Autumn budgets normally take place in October, with the last one at the end of the month.

If this year’s budget is around the same date it will leave little time for the extra winter fuel payments to be made as they are paid between November and December.

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Business

British taxpayers’ £10.2bn loss on bailout of RBS

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British taxpayers' £10.2bn loss on bailout of RBS

British taxpayers are set to swallow a loss of just over £10bn on the 2008 rescue of Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) as the government prepares to confirm that it has offloaded its last-remaining shares in the lender as soon as next week.

Sky News can reveal the ultimate cost to the UK of saving RBS – now NatWest Group – from insolvency is expected to come in at about £10.2bn once the proceeds of share sales, dividends and fees associated with the stake are aggregated.

The final bill will draw a line under one of the most notorious bank bailouts ever orchestrated, and comes nearly 17 years after the then chancellor, Lord Darling, conducted what RBS’s boss at the time, Fred Goodwin, labelled “a drive-by shooting”.

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Insiders believe a statement confirming the final shares have been sold could come in the latter part of next week, although there is a chance that timetable could be extended by a number of days.

The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is likely to make a statement about the milestone, although insiders say the Treasury and the bank are keen to simply mark the occasion by thanking British taxpayers for their protracted support.

A stock exchange filing disclosing that taxpayers’ stake had fallen below 1% was made last week, down from over 80% in the years after the £45.5bn bailout.

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The stake now stands at 0.26%, meaning the final shares could be offloaded as early as the middle of next week, depending upon demand.

Total proceeds from a government trading plan launched in 2021 to drip-feed NatWest stock into the market have so far reached £12.8bn.

Based on the bank’s current share price, the remaining shares should fetch in the region of £400m, taking the figure to £13.2bn.

In addition, institutional share sales and direct buybacks by NatWest of government-held stock have yielded a further £11.5bn.

Dividend payments to the Treasury during its ownership have totalled £4.9bn, while fees and other payments have generated another £5.6bn.

In aggregate, that means total proceeds from NatWest since 2008 are expected to hit £35.3bn.

Under Rick Haythornthwaite and Paul Thwaite, now the bank’s chairman and chief executive respectively, NatWest is now focused on driving growth across its business.

It recently tabled an £11bn bid to buy Santander UK, according to the Financial Times, although no talks are ongoing.

Mr Thwaite replaced Dame Alison Rose, who left amid the crisis sparked by the debanking scandal involving Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader.

Sky News recently revealed that the bank and Mr Farage had reached an undisclosed settlement.

During the first five years of NatWest’s period in majority state ownership, the bank was run by Sir Stephen Hester, now the chairman of easyJet.

Sir Stephen stepped down amid tensions with the then chancellor, George Osborne, about how RBS – as it then was – should be run.

Read more from Sky News:
Energy price cap to fall by 7%
Telegraph £500m sale agreed ‘in principle’

Lloyds Banking Group was also in partial state ownership for years, although taxpayers reaped a net gain of about £900m from that period.

Other lenders nationalised during the crisis included Bradford & Bingley, the bulk of which was sold to Santander UK, and Northern Rock, part of which was sold to Virgin Money – which in turn has been acquired by Nationwide.

NatWest declined to comment on Friday.

A Treasury spokesperson said: “We now own less than 1% of shares in NatWest which is a significant step towards returning the bank to private ownership and delivering value for money for taxpayers.

“We are on track to exit the shareholding soon, subject to sales achieving value for money and market conditions.”

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Trump threatens EU with 50% tariff – as Apple faces 25% unless iPhones are made in US

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Trump threatens EU with 50% tariff - as Apple faces 25% unless iPhones are made in US

Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU, starting from next month, after saying that trade talks with Brussels were “going nowhere”.

Mr Trump made the comments on his Truth Social platform.

It marks a fresh escalation in his trade row with the European Union, which he has previously accused of being created to rip off the US.

While the US has done deals with the UK and China to reduce their peak exposure to his trade war, the president’s EU threat, which would cover all EU imports to the US, would risk retaliatory measures from Brussels if carried through.

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Mr Trump said of talks between his administration and the EU: “Our discussions with them are going nowhere! “Therefore, I am recommending a straight 50% tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1, 2025. There is no tariff if the product is built or manufactured in the United States.”

The European Commission was yet to respond to the remarks. Officials signalled there would be no comment until after a call between top US-EU trade figures due later on Friday.

Financial markets, however, were quick to take a view. European stock markets were sharply down across the board.

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Explained: The US-UK trade deal

The FTSE 100 in London was more than 1.2% lower shortly after the Truth Social post appeared, while Germany’s DAX and the French CAC 40 were in the red to the tune of more than 2%.

US stock markets fell at the open on Wall Street. The tech-focused Nasdaq was down more than 1%.

The potential for damage to the global economy saw Brent crude oil sink by more than 1% to $63 a barrel.

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‘US is losing’ trade war

The dollar took a hit too, as the news only intensified existing market worries this week about the sustainability of US government debt levels.

The pound was trading at levels last seen in February 2022.

Mr Trump said earlier that Apple will be forced to pay 25% tariffs on its iPhones unless it moves all its manufacturing to the US.

Apple shares dropped more than 2% in premarket trading after the warning, also posted on Truth Social.

“I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhones that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or any place else,” wrote the president.

“If that is not the case, a tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the US.”

Production of Apple’s flagship phone happens primarily in China and India, which has been an issue brought up repeatedly by Mr Trump.

Read more:
Trump trade argument against UK doesn’t add up
Why Trump blinked in US-China trade war

On Thursday, the Financial Times reported Apple was planning to expand its India supply chain through a key contractor.

Taiwanese company Foxconn is planning to build a new factory in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu, according to the paper, to help supply Apple.

Sky News has contacted Apple for comment.

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Trump’s latest phone negotiation tactic on tariffs likely to heighten EU retaliation threat

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Trump's latest phone negotiation tactic on tariffs likely to heighten EU retaliation threat

President Trump’s Friday flurry of pronouncements marks the return of negotiation by smartphone and may trigger another period of profound uncertainty for international trade and financial markets.

The threat of 50% tariffs against the European Union, issued hours before his trade representative met their European counterparts, is a show of presidential muscle surely designed to strongarm those on the other side of the table.

It is an escalation likely to heighten the threat of retaliation from Europe, and with a few keystrokes ends the brief period of calm that had returned to global trade and markets in recent days.

Money blog: Trump sends message to UK on energy bills

A red hat in Washington DC to support President Trump. Pic: AP
Image:
A red hat in Washington DC to support President Trump. Pic: AP

Talks in Switzerland between US and Chinese delegations a fortnight ago took the sting out of Sino-American hostility, negotiating three-figure tariffs that amounted to a mutual trade embargo down to manageable levels.

Financial markets had regained most of the losses sparked on ‘Liberation Day’ in April, when Donald Trump declared total trade war, and there was optimism that for all his bluster, there might be meaningful room for constructive compromise.

The UK even secured a deal of sorts, securing a reduction in auto tariffs in exchange for a reciprocal opening of agricultural markets.

More on Donald Trump

There will be no such deal for the EU in a hurry. A 50% tariff on all exports to the US is not only higher than the original threatened blanket tariff of 20% and double Mr Trump’s proposed 25% on European cars, it’s higher even than China.

European stocks predictably ended the week in decline, with car manufacturers including BMW, Volkswagen and Stellantis all down.

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12 May: US and China reach agreement on tariffs

It remains to be seen whether this threat will stick.

Read more:
Trump trade argument against UK doesn’t add up
Why Trump blinked in US-China trade war

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Mr Trump has repeatedly blinked first in the trade war he started, backing down on global reciprocal tariffs when bond markets rebelled before caving in Geneva to reach an accommodation with China.

His grievances with Europe appear to have an extra edge however, and the consequences of the uncertainty he’s sparked will be far-reaching.

If this was the only thing he had announced on ‘Liberation Day’ it would still have been huge.

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