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A man seen using his phone next to iPhone 16 models kept on display at the Apple store in Bandra Kurla Complex (BKC) in Mumbai.

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Shipments of iPhones from India to the U.S. rose 76% in April year on year, estimates from a technology market analyst firm shows. The surge comes as Apple accelerates its “made in India” plans, which analysts say will meet pushback from President Donald Trump and Beijing.

The data from Canalys, now part of Omdia, showed that U.S. iPhones shipped from India in April reached roughly 3,000,000. That’s a stark contrast to shipments from China over the same period, which fell about 76% from last year to just 900,000. 

According to Le Xuan Chiew, a research manager at Omdia, the April numbers show the aggressive measures Apple has taken to adapt to Washington’s tariffs against China, where Apple manufactures most of its iPhones.

“This latest trade war with China, is the type of disturbance that Apple has long been trying to prepare itself for,” he said, adding that the country had first started investing heavily into supply chains in India during the Covid-19 pandemic. 

India also surpassed China in iPhone shipments to the United States in March, according to Omdia’s estimates. The uptick came ahead of Trump’s first iteration of “reciprocal tariffs” on April 2. The amount of shipments that month was unusually high and appeared to be the result of the company’s stockpiling, according to Chiew.

The Trump administration’s decision to exempt iPhones and other consumer electronics from his reciprocal tariffs on April 11 did not reverse those trends, with Apple CEO Tim Cook in early may reiterating plans for most iPhone’s sold in the U.S. to be manufactured in India. 

IPhones imported from China under Trump’s current term tariffs still face an additional 30% of duties, while the baseline tariff rate is currently 10% for most other countries, including India. 

Growth to plateau?

While the jump in India’s iPhone shipments in March and April showed the adaptability of Apple’s supply chains, that growth is expected to slow down for the rest of the year, according to Omdia’s Chiew.

“India’s manufacturing capacity isn’t expected to grow fast enough to take the entirety of U.S. demand. It’s still too early,” he said, noting that the company recently began shipments of Apple’s most cutting-edge iPhone 16 Pro.

Moving Apple iPhone production to the U.S. is a 'fairy tale', says Wedbush's Dan Ives

Omdia estimates that U.S. iPhone demand is about 20 million a quarter, with India expected to be able to match that level only by 2026. 

Meanwhile, Daniel Newman, CEO and principal analyst at research firm Futurum Group, noted that shipment numbers reflect final assembly, but are not representative of the entire supply chain and manufacturing process. 

“It was actually a very low lift for them to migrate more and more of the final assembly from China to India,” he said, adding that a vast majority of the sub-assemblies are all still in China.

Pushback from Washington and Beijing

Analysts said India’s ability to expand its iPhone capacity could be curbed by protectionist measures from Washington and Beijing, which both have issues with Apple’s reaction against tariffs.

According to Newman, while this is the smart thing for Apple to do, it’s also playing a “dangerous game” with Trump, as it doesn’t meet the objectives of his administration’s tariffs. 

On Friday, Trump threatened to slap a 25% tariff on all iPhone shipments in a social media post, reiterating that he expects iPhones sold in the U.S. to be manufactured and built domestically, “not India, or anyplace else.”

China, for its part, is not expected to make it easy for Apple to diversify out of the country, Newman said, adding that the company has served as trade leverage for Beijing.

According to reports from local outlets in India, Beijing has tried to make it harder for the country to access the high-tech machinery and talent from China needed to further support Apple’s suppliers in India. 

Dan Ives, global head of technology research at Wedbush Securities, told CNBC that Apple’s India plans will pose some challenges regarding logistics, distribution and navigating complex supply chains in the country. However, India is nevertheless expected to remain a “life raft” for Apple under the tariff situation.

“Producing iPhones in the U.S. is a fairy tale in our view and Apple will continue to plow ahead on the India path. Cook will look to negotiate with Trump but India is the focus and not changing.”

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Why current AI models won’t make scientific breakthroughs, according to a top tech exec

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Why current AI models won't make scientific breakthroughs, according to a top tech exec

Co-founder and Chief Science Officer at Hugging Face, Thomas Wolf, speaks at the opening ceremony of the Web Summit, in Lisbon, Portugal, November 11, 2024. 

Pedro Nunes | Reuters

Current artificial intelligence models from labs like OpenAI are unlikely to lead to major scientific breakthroughs, a tech co-founder said, pouring cold water on some of the hype around the technology and claims by major figures in the field.

The comments by Thomas Wolf, co-founder of $4.5 billion AI startup Hugging Face, are in stake contrast to those by major names in AI including OpenAI boss Sam Altman and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei.

When Wolf talks about scientific breakthroughs, he means novel ideas like those at a Nobel Prize level. Examples including Nicolaus Copernicus who theorized the sun was at the center of the universe and other planets move round it.

Wolf explained a couple of issues with chatbots right now. The first is that these products like ChatGPT and others often agree or align with the person prompting it. Think back to if you’ve asked a chatbot a prompt and it will tell you how interesting or great that question is.

The second is that the models underpinning these chatbots are designed to “predict the most likely next token” or “word” in a sentence.

However, he noted two key traits of scientists. The first is that scientists who make major breakthroughs are often contrarian and question what others are saying.

“The scientist is not trying to predict the most likely next word. He’s trying to predict this very novel thing that’s actually surprisingly unlikely, but actually is true,” Wolf said.

The Hugging Face co-founder has been thinking about this topic for the last few months. His interest was sparked after he read an essay penned by Anthropic’s Amodei, who posited that “AI-enabled biology and medicine will allow us to compress the progress that human biologists would have achieved over the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years.”

That got Wolf thinking about the state of AI and how this won’t be possible, in his view, with the current crop of models.

Wolf said that these chatbots and tools will likely be used as a sort of “co-pilot for a scientist” where they are used for research to help the human generate new ideas.

To some extent, this has been happening already. Google DeepMind’s AlphaFold product has helped to analyze protein structures which the company has promised could aid scientists in discovering new drugs.

But there are some new startups that are hoping to take AI one step further into being able to make scientific breakthroughs, including Lila Sciences and FutureHouse.

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Taiwan rejects U.S. proposal for ’50-50′ chip production, says trade talks focused on tariffs

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Taiwan rejects U.S. proposal for '50-50' chip production, says trade talks focused on tariffs

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Limited at Hsinchu Science Park.

Annabelle Chih | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Taiwan will not accept Washington’s proposal to locally manufacture half the chips it currently supplies to the U.S., the island’s top trade negotiator said.

Speaking to reporters, Cheng Li-chiun, also the country’s vice premier, said on Wednesday that the proposal for a “50-50” split in semiconductor production was not even discussed, as she returned from trade talks in the U.S., according to Taiwan’s Central News Agency.

Cheng said the talks were focused on lowering tariff rates, securing exemptions from tariff stacking — additional duties — and reducing levies on Taiwanese exports. Taiwan currently faces a “reciprocal” tariff rate of 20%.

Washington has held discussions with Taipei about the “50-50” split in semiconductor production, which would cut American reliance on Taiwan, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said last weekend in an interview to NewsNation, adding that currently 95% of the U.S. demand was met via chips produced within Taiwan.  

“My objective, and this administration’s objective, is to get chip manufacturing significantly onshored — we need to make our own chips,” Lutnick said. “The idea that I pitched [Taiwan] was, let’s get to 50-50. We’re producing half, and you’re producing half.” 

U.S. President Donald Trump had also taken aim at the island’s dominance in chips earlier this year, accusing it of “stealing” the U.S.’ chip business.

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comments.

Lutnick’s proposal has been condemned by Taiwan’s politicians, with Eric Chu, chairman of the island’s principal opposition party Kuomintang, calling it “an act of exploitation and plunder,” according to the Central News Agency report.

“No one can sell out Taiwan or TSMC, and no one can undermine Taiwan’s silicon shield,” Chu said, referring to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s leader in advanced chip manufacturing.

Taiwan’s critical position in global chips production is believed to have assured the island nation’s defense against direct military action from China, often referred to as the “Silicon Shield” theory.

In his NewsNation interview, Lutnick downplayed the “Silicon Shield,” arguing that Taiwan would be safer with more balanced chip production between Washington and Taipei. Beijing views the democratically governed island of Taiwan as its own territory and has vowed to reclaim it by force if necessary, while Taipei rejects those claims

Taiwan People’s Party Chairman Huang Kuo-chang reportedly called Lutnick’s proposal an attempt to “hollow out the foundations of Taiwan’s technology sector.”

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SK Hynix shares hit 25-year high, Samsung also surges as chipmakers partner with OpenAI

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SK Hynix shares hit 25-year high, Samsung also surges as chipmakers partner with OpenAI

Headquarters of Samsung in Mountain View, California, on October 28, 2018.

Smith Collection/gado | Archive Photos | Getty Images

Shares of South Korean chip heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix surged Thursday, a day after the two companies partnered with artificial-intelligence major OpenAI as part of the U.S. firm’s Stargate initiative.

Samsung shares hit their highest since January 2021, rising over 4%, while SK Hynix stock surged more than 9% — highest since 2000.

OpenAI said in a statement that this partnership will “focus on increasing the supply of advanced memory chips essential for next-generation AI and expanding data center capacity in Korea.”

The ChatGPT-maker said the two South Korean firms plan to scale up production of advanced memory chips, which are critical to power its AI models.

The announcement came as OpenAI CEO Sam Altman met with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung in Seoul, and the top leaders at Samsung and SK Hynix.

OpenAI has also signed a series of agreements to explore developing next-generation AI data centers in South Korea, including with the Korean Ministry of Science and ICT, telecommunications operator SK Telecom, as well as with Samsung subsidiaries.

Earlier this month, SK Hynix announced that it was ready to mass-produce its next-generation high-bandwidth memory chips, cementing its leading position in the AI value chain. HBM is a type of memory that is used in chipsets for artificial-intelligence computing, including in chips from global AI giant Nvidia — a major client of SK Hynix. 

HBM4 chips are expected to be the main AI memory chip needed for Nvidia’s next-generation Rubin architecture — a more powerful AI chip for global data centers.

SK Hynix has been a main chip supplier to Nvidia, while rival Samsung has reportedly been working to get its HBM4 chips certified by Nvidia. 

Samsung has traditionally been the market leader in memory, but its position has been threatened by SK Hynix that has taken a lead in the HBM space. A report from Counterpoint Research in July found that SK Hynix had caught up with Samsung’s memory revenues in the second quarter, with both now vying for the top position in the global memory market. 

Samsung’s second-quarter earnings missed expectations, as profits from its chip business declined almost 94% year on year, although its Chief Financial Officer Soon-cheol Park said that the company expects a rebound in the second half of the year.

— CNBC’s Dylan Butts contributed to this report.

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