We’ve been talking about the impact of Elon Musk’s venture into politics on the Tesla brand for years, but now a new study from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is putting some staggering numbers to it.

According to a new working paper, Musk’s “polarizing and partisan actions” have directly cost Tesla over a million vehicle sales in the US alone.

The study, titled “The Musk Partisan Effect on Tesla Sales,” argues that without this effect, Tesla’s sales would have been 67% to 83% higher between October 2022 and April 2025. That’s an absolutely massive number, and it suggests Tesla’s recent sales slump isn’t just about “increased competition” or “pent-up demand” being satisfied.

It’s about the brand.

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The researchers from Yale and NBER didn’t just run a poll. They dug into county-level, monthly new vehicle registration data for all EVs and hybrids from March 2020 to April 2025.

They used a “difference-in-differences” analysis. In simple terms, they tracked how sales trends changed in heavily Democratic-leaning counties versus heavily Republican-leaning counties. The “treatment” event that broke the trend? Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter in October 2022.

Here’s what the data shows:

1. Before Oct. 2022: Counties with more Democrats showed an increasing preference for Teslas compared to Republican counties. This makes sense, as we know EV adoption has historically been higher among liberal-leaning buyers.
2. After Oct. 2022: The trend dramatically reverses. As Musk’s political activities—including “relaxed content moderating of far-right and extremist voices” and massive campaign contributions—ramped up, Democratic-leaning counties began “shifting away from Tesla purchases”.

The study is blunt, noting Musk’s actions “antagonized his most loyal customer base”.

The paper runs two different models to quantify the damage, and the results are “remarkably similar”.

Aggregated from October 2022 through April 2025, the “Musk partisan effect” cost Tesla between 1.0 and 1.26 million vehicle sales.

Again, that’s in the US alone. Tesla’s sales in Europe have also been crashing over the last 2 years. Some of that has been attributed to Musk’s political activism, but Tesla is also facing tougher competition in Europe, where more EV models are available due to fewer protectionist rules.

To put the US numbers in perspective, that’s 67% to 83% of the actual number of Teslas sold during that same period.

By the first quarter of 2025, the study estimates Tesla’s monthly sales would have been about 150% higher if not for this effect.

Fewer Tesla sales, but no fewer EV sales

This is the other side of the coin. Those ~1 million buyers didn’t just give up on EVs. They bought from competitors.

The study finds a “nearly one-for-one substitution” from Teslas to other EVs and hybrids.

According to the study, Musk’s actions increased the sales of other electric and hybrid vehicles by 17% to 22%. So, while Tesla’s growth stalled and reversed, competitors like Ford, GM, Rivian, Hyundai, and Kia got a massive, unexpected boost, directly attributable to Tesla’s CEO.

And what about the other side? Did Musk’s shift to the right win over new Republican buyers?

The study says no.

They cite survey data showing that Musk’s public persona “significantly reduces liberal and Democratic support for Tesla without increasing conservative and Republican support”. Ouch.

Earlier this year, after President Trump held what amounted to a Tesla infomercial with Musk at the White House, we did note that Musk’s shift to the right isn’t likely to result in a significant boost in sales from conservatives.

That’s not just because electric vehicles are harder to sell to conservative people, but mainly because Tesla isn’t equipped to sell in rural areas and conservative states.

Electrek’s Take

We’ve been covering this anecdotally for ages, but the study puts actual numbers on what we have been saying for years: Elon Musk is destroying Tesla’s brand.

People who live on Twitter don’t see it like that, but X is not the real world.

These guys at Yale and NBER have actual data to prove it. To see it quantified like this is something else. A loss of over 1 million vehicles is not a rounding error. It is a self-inflicted disaster for the brand.

Because Tesla’s sales have been only marginally down globally over the last two years, Tesla fans don’t think the impact is significant, but that’s not the right way to look at it.

During the last 2 years, EV sales have continued to surge, and yet, the EV leader, Tesla, saw its sales go down. That’s a problem. Tesla was planning to grow heavily during that period. It was looking to build new factories.

Instead, it canceled new factory plans, such as Gigafactory Mexico, and it reduced utilization at its current factories to about 60%.

The craziest part is that this is just the brand damage. Now, the actual policy damage is starting to happen.

Musk wasn’t successful in doing much in politics, but he did get Trump elected, and he has now filled the tax credit in the US and removed regulatory credits for EVs.

Both of these moves are greatly negatively affecting Tesla, and the impact of those is only starting this quarter.

Musk’s move into politics was one of the all-time worst business moves.

Solar and battery storage continue to dominate growth among energy sources, while fossil fuels and nuclear power have stagnated. That’s according to data just released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), which was reviewed by the SUN DAY Campaign.

Solar electrical generation sets new records

EIA’s latest monthly “Electric Power Monthly” report (with data through August 31, 2025), once again confirms that solar is the fastest-growing among the major sources of US electricity.

In August alone, electrical generation by utility-scale solar (>1 megawatt (MW)) grew by 29.5% compared to August 2024, while “estimated” small-scale (e.g., rooftop) solar PV increased by 10.8%. Combined, they grew by 24.7% and provided 9.5% of US electrical output during the month, up from 7.6% a year ago.

Moreover, utility-scale solar thermal and photovoltaic systems expanded by 35.7%, while those from small-scale systems rose by 11.0% during the first eight months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. The combination of utility-scale and small-scale solar increased by 28.8% and was over 8.9% (utility-scale: 6.7%; small-scale: 2.2%) of total US electrical generation for January-August, up from 7.1% a year earlier.

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As a consequence, solar-generated electricity YTD easily surpassed the output of US hydropower plants (5.6% of total generation) by over 58%. In August alone, solar-generated electricity more than doubled the output of the nation’s hydropower plants. In fact, in both August and YTD, solar produced more electricity than hydropower, biomass, and geothermal combined.

Moreover, for the second consecutive month, utility-scale solar generated more electricity than US wind farms – by 4% in July and by 15% in August. Including small-scale systems, solar has outproduced wind four months in a row and by almost 50% during August.

Wind turbines across the US produced 10.2% of US electricity in the first eight months of 2025 – an increase of 2.6% year-over-year and 80% more than that produced by US hydropower plants.

Wind + solar are 1/5 of total US electrical generation

During the first eight months of 2025, electrical generation by wind plus utility-scale and small-scale solar provided 19.1% of the US total, up from 17.2% during the first two-thirds of 2024.

Further, the combination of wind and solar provided 16.2% more electricity than did coal during the first eight months of this year, and 11.7% more than US nuclear power plants. In fact, as solar and wind expanded, nuclear-generated electricity dropped by 0.7%.

The mix of all renewables (wind, solar, hydropower, biomass, geothermal) produced 9.0% more electricity in January-August than a year ago. It provided 26.1% of total US electricity production compared to 24.5% 12 months earlier.

Renewables’ share of electrical generation is now second to only that of natural gas whose electrical output actually dropped by almost 4.1% during the first eight months of 2025.

Solar and battery storage dominated capacity additions

Between September 1, 2024, and August 31, 2025, utility-scale solar capacity grew by 31,706.5 MW, while an additional 5,718.1 MW was provided by small-scale solar. EIA expects to see 34,325.8 MW of utility-scale solar capacity added in the next 12 months.

Battery storage also saw strong growth, which grew by 63.9% during the past year and added 13,377.5 MW of new capacity. In the course of the past year, battery storage actually surpassed pumped hydro storage (PHS) in October 2024, and now accounts for 50% more storage capacity than PHS. EIA also notes that planned battery capacity additions during the next year total 20,179.8 MW.

Wind also made a strong showing during the past 12 months, adding 4,791.9 MW, while planned capacity additions over the next year total 9,650.1 MW.

On the other hand, natural gas capacity increased by only 3,337.7 MW, and nuclear power added a mere 46.0 MW. Meanwhile, coal capacity plummeted by 4,185.1 MW, and petroleum-based capacity fell by 658.7 MW.

Thus, during the past year, renewable energy capacity, including battery storage and small-scale solar, ballooned by 55,419.6 MW while fossil fuels and nuclear power combined actually declined by 1,486.3 MW.

“The Trump Administration and its Republican supporters in Congress may slow renewable energy growth a bit,” noted the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director Ken Bossong. “However, EIA’s data reinforce the conclusion that the transition to solar, wind, other renewables and storage continues, is accelerating, and has become inevitable.”

Read more: As Texas power demand surges, solar, wind and storage carry the load

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Canada is rumored to remove tariffs on Chinese electric cars soon, as Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week.

This would likely lead to the biggest shake-up in the EV space in North America after the US killing its EV incentives.

Last year, Canada followed the US in imposing 100% tariffs on electric vehicles coming from China.

In hindsight, it was a short-sighted move as it mainly helped the US auto industry while the US government quickly turned hostile on trade with its northern neighbor.

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With little progress in trade negotiations with the US, there has been an expectation that Canada would reverse its tariffs on Chinese EVs.

Rumors have been increasing lately amid new developments.

First off, President Trump announced last weekend that he had shut down trade talks with Canada because he was upset that Ontario ran ads featuring President Reagan criticizing tariffs. He suggested that this was inaccurate and the Canadian province might even have used AI to fake the comments. That’s false. Reagan did dislike tariffs, and the video was legitimate.

On the Canadian side, Prime Minister Mark Carney will meet with President Xi Jinping this week at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea.

There are rumors that the two countries might use the opportunity to sign new trade deals.

In China, the rumors point to the country removing restrictions on Canadian canola and pork in exchange for Canada eliminating tariffs on Chinese EVs.

Electrek’s Take

In the short term, the biggest winner would be Tesla, which would resume delivering cars made in Shanghai to Canada.

EV supply has been lower since the tariffs, and things accelerated quickly this year after incentives were paused and new tariffs on US EVs.

Tesla has been sending Model Ys from Germany instead, but more variants are being built in China, and it would also enable cheaper Model 3s to hit the Canadian market.

Mid to long-term, it would be a big win for consumers, as some Chinese automakers could decide to launch in Canada, and we would get access to some amazing cars at reasonable prices.

In fact, I’m going back to China next week. I should test out a few of those new Chinese EVs, and I’m sure, like last time, I will want to bring them back with me.