A potential water war in the making: Crucial India-Pakistan agreement hangs in the balance

Published

2 months ago

May 28, 2025

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A potential water war is in the making after India suspended the Indus Water Treaty.

The decision came in retaliation to terror attacks in Kashmir, which were followed by a four-day conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

Pakistan says, if not reversed, it amounts to an act of war. India’s response – blood and water cannot flow together.

What is the Indus Water Treaty?

The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) of 1960 governs how the six rivers that flow through India are shared.

While India gets unrestricted use of the three eastern rivers – the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej, Pakistan is allotted the lion’s share of the three western rivers – the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum.

The average annual flow of the western rivers (135.6 million acre ft) is more than four times that of the eastern ones (32.6 million acre ft).

Though India can use a fraction of the waters of the western rivers for irrigation and hydropower, it has to eventually release all the waters downstream.

Surinder Thapa, former chief engineer of the Baglihar Dam, who has been associated with the Indus Water Treaty Commission over the past 20 years, told Sky News: “It’s totally a biased treaty as it was not negotiated on minute technical parameters as there is unequal share of the volume of water.

“India has suffered and is still struggling with its water projects. Some have even closed because they have become economically unviable.”

How India could respond

India demanded a modification of the treaty under Article XII in 2023, to take into consideration its changing demographics, water and energy requirements, climate change disaster mitigation, and cross-border terrorism.

The treaty has provisions for modification under certain circumstances – but there are no clauses for unilateral exit or suspension. India is taking its position as a legal decision under international law.

It cannot stop water from flowing across the border, as it lacks storage infrastructure and the capacity to divert large amounts of water.

But there are ways in which India could potentially harm its neighbour – by not sharing data on the volume of water in the rivers, withholding flow or releasing or even tampering with the volume, that could affect agriculture, power generation, consumption, and even cause floods in Pakistan.

Pakistan’s reliance on the network

More than 80% of Pakistan’s irrigated land is watered by the Indus network.

Agriculture is its backbone, employing more than half its population and contributing almost a quarter of its GDP.

It is already one of the most water-stressed countries in the world. Disruption to its rivers would have massive effects on its economy and people.

Across the border in Pakistan, farmers are worried about the uncertainty of its neighbour.

Muhammad Nawaz, a farmer from Nikaiyan Da Kot in Gujrat, Pakistan, told Sky News: “Our government must respond, we already have nothing, and if they stop giving us water, then what is left for us.”

More on this story:
The story of India and Pakistan’s deadly conflict
The site targeted by deadly Indian missile strikes is a mass of rubble

Hassan Ullah, who lives in the village of Kot Nikka, said: “India is violating the agreements made with the government. Pakistan should take up this issue at the international level.”

Since the suspension, India has carried out flushing and desilting of its dams – helping to increase its storage and making its hydropower projects more efficient.

Mr Thapa said: “For all these years we cooperated 120% with Pakistan but they kept raising irrelevant technical questions only to delay our projects – causing huge financial losses.

“We don’t want to bleed people in Pakistan, but we are left with no option but to teach them a lesson of how much sacrifice we have made.

“We need to make huge storage dams and navigation projects with no checks by anyone anymore.”

Recent India-Pakistan conflict

The fraught relationship between the two nuclear-armed neighbours worried the world when both countries attacked each other. Dozens of people were killed and hundreds of livelihoods were destroyed on both sides of the border.

The village of Kot Maira in Akhnur district, just a couple of miles from the Pakistan border, has been one of the most targeted in the region.

Bari Ram, 59, had a miraculous escape. He left his home with his son just a few minutes before artillery shells destroyed it, killing all his cattle.

He told Sky News: “This happened after the ceasefire, everything is destroyed. We can’t sleep as we don’t know when the next bomb will fall.”

In a hospital room in Jammu, 46-year-old Rameez is having his wounds dressed. He’s not completely out of danger as shrapnel is still embedded in his liver and ribs. He’s already lost a lot of blood and doctors don’t want to operate on him just yet.

But it’s not the physical pain that traumatises him as much as the loss of his twins, 12-year-olds Zoya and Zain.

They got caught up in heavy Pakistani shelling when they tried to escape from their home.

Their aunt Maria Khan told Sky News: “The bombs fell behind them while they were getting out, Zoya was hit at the back of her head, her ribs were broken and she was bleeding.

“My brother picked her up and within seconds she died in his arms. He saw a neighbour trying to resuscitate Zain, but he had already died.”

Unable to hold back tears, she added: “That’s why us who live on the border areas want only peace. We know and experience the effects of real war. Our innocent children have died. This pain is unbearable and unreplaceable.”

For the moment, the precarious ceasefire between the countries is holding. But for so many it has come too late.

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Mile after mile of grey rubble – the view from a plane dropping aid to Gaza

Published

10 hours ago

July 29, 2025

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Mile after mile of grey rubble - the view from a plane dropping aid to Gaza

We are on our way to Gaza with the Jordanian military.

The aircraft is hot and noisy and as we get closer, the atmosphere gets more tense. Aircrew gesture with their hands to tell us how many minutes there are to go. Fifteen. Six. One.

The Jordanian military C-130 flies out over the sea before banking and heading inland for Gaza. The parachutes, attached to the top of each of the eight pallets, are prepared for the drop.

As land approaches, I look down. The ground is modern and built up – we’re still over southern Israel.

Then a few short minutes later, it’s clear we’ve crossed Gaza’s border.

The ground turns grey, the shapes of buildings disappear, there are no cars, no people.

You can see the outline of communities and villages that are now flattened. Mile after mile of grey rubble.

This mission by the Royal Jordanian Air Force is one of the first aid drop flights since Israel announced they could resume. It is carrying eight tonnes of food and baby formula.

Foreign nations know this is a deeply flawed way of delivering aid – road convoys are far more effective and can carry far more – but the Jordanian flight crew say the need in Gaza is so urgent, it’s simply an attempt to do something.

When the aircraft ramp opens, the aid is pushed out and it’s gone in seconds.

The parachutes seem peaceful as they open and their fall slows. But dropping food from the sky is a dangerous and undignified way to feed people.

On the ground it’s chaos.

Our colleagues in Gaza say the fighting for food has become lethal – gangs are now punching and stabbing people to reach it first. Most critically, it’s not getting to the weakest. To those who really need it.

One man becomes emotional as he describes racing to find food and leaving with nothing.

“I came only for my son,” he says. “I wouldn’t come here if it was just for me. When you have a child, they need bread.”

He’s an engineer in normal times and seems in disbelief that his life has come to this. “The aid comes from the sky and we have to run after it. I’ve never had to do this in my life.”

It is hoped Israel’s humanitarian pauses in fighting will rapidly increase food distribution by road but it’s very unclear how that is going.

Hospitals in Gaza have reported another 14 deaths from starvation in the last 24 hours, the Gaza health ministry said on Monday.

Airstrikes killed another at least 78 Palestinians across Gaza on Monday, local health officials said.

We cannot verify these numbers because Israel has not allowed international journalists access to Gaza.

And Monday’s flight came with strict media conditions.

We were told the Israeli side had warned that any shots of Gaza filmed from the air could result in these aid flights being cancelled.

But Israel’s tight grip has not stopped the images from Gaza getting out, horrifying people around the world.

The question now is what more the international community will do about it.

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Israeli human rights organisations accuse country of genocide

Published

13 hours ago

July 28, 2025

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Israeli human rights organisations accuse country of genocide

Two Israeli human rights organisations have said the country is committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza.

In reports published on Monday, B’Tselem and Physicians for Human Rights (PHR) said Israel was carrying out “coordinated, deliberate action to destroy Palestinian society in the Gaza Strip”.

The two groups are the first major voices within Israeli society to make such accusations against the state during nearly 22 months of war against Hamas.

Israel has vehemently denied claims of genocide. David Mencer, a spokesperson for the government, called the allegation by the rights groups “baseless”.

He said: “There is no intent, (which is) key for the charge of genocide… it simply doesn’t make sense for a country to send in 1.9 million tonnes of aid, most of that being food, if there is an intent of genocide.”

B’Tselem director Yuli Novak called for urgent action, saying: “What we see is a clear, intentional attack on civilians in order to destroy a group.”

The organisation’s report “is one we never imagined we would have to write,” Ms Novak said. “The people of Gaza have been displaced, bombed, and starved, left completely stripped of their humanity and rights.”

PHR said Israel’s military campaign shows evidence of a “deliberate and systemic dismantling of Gaza’s health and life-sustaining systems”.

Both organisations said Israel’s Western allies were enabling the genocidal campaign, and shared responsibility for suffering in Gaza.

“It couldn’t happen without the support of the Western world,” Ms Novak said. “Any leader that is not doing whatever they can to stop it is part of this horror.”

Hamas said the reports by the two groups were a “clear and unambiguous testimony from within Israeli society itself regarding the grave crimes perpetrated by the occupation regime against our people”.

Dire humanitarian conditions

Since Israel launched its offensive in Gaza following the deadly Hamas attack on 7 October 2023, nearly 60,000 people – mostly civilians – have been killed, according to Gaza health officials.

Much of the infrastructure has been destroyed, and nearly the whole population of more than two million has been displaced.

An increasing number of people in Gaza are also dying from starvation and malnutrition, according to Gaza health authorities.

On Monday, the Gaza health ministry reported that at least 14 people had died from starvation and malnutrition in the past 24 hours, raising the total number of hunger-related deaths during the war to 147.

Among the victims were 88 children, with most of the deaths occurring in recent weeks.

UN agencies say the territory is running out of food for its people and accuse Israel of not allowing enough aid deliveries to the enclave. Israel denies those claims.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday said “there is no starvation in Gaza” and vowed to fight on against Hamas.

US President Donald Trump said on Monday that many in Gaza are facing starvation and implied that Israel could take further steps to improve humanitarian access.

Israel has repeatedly said its actions in Gaza are in self-defence, placing full responsibility for civilian casualties on Hamas. It cites the militant group’s refusal to release hostages, surrender, or stop operating within civilian areas – allegations that Hamas denies.

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Why are airdrops on Gaza so dangerous?

Published

22 hours ago

July 28, 2025

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The United Nations has condemned airdrops on Gaza, warning they risk killing the starving Palestinians they are intended to help.

Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel parachuted aid packages into the territory for the first time in months at the weekend amid claims a third of the population has not eaten for days.

But Philippe Lazzarini, commissioner-general for the UN Relief and Work Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA), has said they “will not reverse the deepening starvation” and often do more harm than good.

‘Make or break’ as starvation looms; Middle East latest

“They are expensive, inefficient & can even kill starving civilians,” he wrote in a statement on X.

What is an airdrop – and why are they dangerous?

There are several ways humanitarian agencies and international allies can deliver aid to regions in need – by land, by sea, or by air.

While parachuting in supply packages from planes may look impressive, airdrops are “fraught with problems”, Sky correspondent in Jordan Sally Lockwood says, and often used as a “desperate last resort”.

“Foreign nations know airdrops are a deeply flawed way of delivering aid,” she says.

“Palestinian sources tell us the aid that’s been dropped so far is not reaching the most vulnerable. They are an attempt to get something to a few – often viewed as a desperate last resort. Gaza is at that point.”

Military analyst Sean Bell says that delivering aid by air is ideally done when planes can land on a runway – but Gaza’s only landing strip in Rafah was shut down in 2021.

The alternative is “very dangerous”, he warns. “Aircraft flying relatively low and slow over a warzone isn’t very clever. When these parcels hit the ground, there’s a significant danger of them hitting people.”

Crucially, they can only deliver a fraction of what lorries can.

“The really big issue is aircraft can only deliver one truckload of aid. Gaza needs 500 truckloads a day, so it’s 0.2% of the daily need,” Bell adds.

They also risk falling into the wrong hands and ending up on the black market.

“Some of it has been looted by gangs and is on the black market already,” Lockwood says.

Why are they happening now?

Israel cut off all supplies to Gaza at the beginning of March, reopening some aid centres in May, but with restrictions they said were designed to stop goods being stolen by Hamas militants.

Israeli authorities control the only three border crossings to the strip: Kerem Shalom in the south, Crossing 147 in the centre, and Erez to the north.

Since the current conflict with Hamas began in October 2023, humanitarian agencies and world leaders have repeatedly accused Israel of not allowing enough deliveries through.

Mr Lazzarini says the UN has “the equivalent of 6,000 trucks” in neighbouring Jordan and Egypt “waiting for the green light to get into Gaza”.

Israel says it has commissioned a “one-week scale-up of aid”, having conducted its own airdrops on Saturday.

In a statement over the weekend, the Israeli Defence Forces said it will work with the UN and other aid organisations to ensure aid is delivered but no more details were given.

Meanwhile on Sunday, it began daily 10-hour pauses in fighting in three areas of Gaza to address the deteriorating humanitarian situation.

According to the Hamas-run health ministry, 133 Palestinians had died of malnutrition by then, including 87 children.

Doctors Without Borders warned on Friday that 25% of young children and pregnant women in Gaza are malnourished.

Israel says there is no famine in Gaza.

What are in the airdrops and who is behind them?

Air packages are largely being delivered by C-130 planes. Jordan is reported to be using 10 and the UAE eight.

They can carry eight pallets of goods each, weighing around eight tonnes in total, according to Lockwood, who is on the runway at Jordan’s King Abdullah II airbase.

There are no medical supplies in the packages, she says, only dried food, rice, flour, and baby formula.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has said the UK will help with airdrops – but no British aircraft have been seen in Jordan so far.

He will discuss the matter with US President Donald Trump during talks in Scotland on Monday.

The RAF delivered 110 tonnes of aid across 10 drops last year as part of a Jordanian-led international coalition – but it is not clear what level of support will be offered this time.