A potential water war in the making: Crucial India-Pakistan agreement hangs in the balance
A potential water war is in the making after India suspended the Indus Water Treaty.
The decision came in retaliation to terror attacks in Kashmir, which were followed by a four-day conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
Pakistan says, if not reversed, it amounts to an act of war. India’s response – blood and water cannot flow together.
What is the Indus Water Treaty?
The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) of 1960 governs how the six rivers that flow through India are shared.
While India gets unrestricted use of the three eastern rivers – the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej, Pakistan is allotted the lion’s share of the three western rivers – the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum.
The average annual flow of the western rivers (135.6 million acre ft) is more than four times that of the eastern ones (32.6 million acre ft).
Though India can use a fraction of the waters of the western rivers for irrigation and hydropower, it has to eventually release all the waters downstream.
Salal Dam on the Chenab River in Kashmir
Surinder Thapa, former chief engineer of the Baglihar Dam, who has been associated with the Indus Water Treaty Commission over the past 20 years, told Sky News: “It’s totally a biased treaty as it was not negotiated on minute technical parameters as there is unequal share of the volume of water.
“India has suffered and is still struggling with its water projects. Some have even closed because they have become economically unviable.”
How India could respond
India demanded a modification of the treaty under Article XII in 2023, to take into consideration its changing demographics, water and energy requirements, climate change disaster mitigation, and cross-border terrorism.
The treaty has provisions for modification under certain circumstances – but there are no clauses for unilateral exit or suspension. India is taking its position as a legal decision under international law.
It cannot stop water from flowing across the border, as it lacks storage infrastructure and the capacity to divert large amounts of water.
But there are ways in which India could potentially harm its neighbour – by not sharing data on the volume of water in the rivers, withholding flow or releasing or even tampering with the volume, that could affect agriculture, power generation, consumption, and even cause floods in Pakistan.
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Explained: India-Pakistan conflict
Pakistan’s reliance on the network
More than 80% of Pakistan’s irrigated land is watered by the Indus network.
Agriculture is its backbone, employing more than half its population and contributing almost a quarter of its GDP.
It is already one of the most water-stressed countries in the world. Disruption to its rivers would have massive effects on its economy and people.
Across the border in Pakistan, farmers are worried about the uncertainty of its neighbour.
Muhammad Nawaz, a farmer from Nikaiyan Da Kot in Gujrat, Pakistan, told Sky News: “Our government must respond, we already have nothing, and if they stop giving us water, then what is left for us.”
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Hassan Ullah, who lives in the village of Kot Nikka, said: “India is violating the agreements made with the government. Pakistan should take up this issue at the international level.”
Since the suspension, India has carried out flushing and desilting of its dams – helping to increase its storage and making its hydropower projects more efficient.
Mr Thapa said: “For all these years we cooperated 120% with Pakistan but they kept raising irrelevant technical questions only to delay our projects – causing huge financial losses.
“We don’t want to bleed people in Pakistan, but we are left with no option but to teach them a lesson of how much sacrifice we have made.
“We need to make huge storage dams and navigation projects with no checks by anyone anymore.”
Recent India-Pakistan conflict
The fraught relationship between the two nuclear-armed neighbours worried the world when both countries attacked each other. Dozens of people were killed and hundreds of livelihoods were destroyed on both sides of the border.
The village of Kot Maira in Akhnur district, just a couple of miles from the Pakistan border, has been one of the most targeted in the region.
The village of Kot Maira, just miles away from India’s border with Pakistan
Bari Ram, 59, had a miraculous escape. He left his home with his son just a few minutes before artillery shells destroyed it, killing all his cattle.
He told Sky News: “This happened after the ceasefire, everything is destroyed. We can’t sleep as we don’t know when the next bomb will fall.”
Bari Ram
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In a hospital room in Jammu, 46-year-old Rameez is having his wounds dressed. He’s not completely out of danger as shrapnel is still embedded in his liver and ribs. He’s already lost a lot of blood and doctors don’t want to operate on him just yet.
Rameez, 46
But it’s not the physical pain that traumatises him as much as the loss of his twins, 12-year-olds Zoya and Zain.
They got caught up in heavy Pakistani shelling when they tried to escape from their home.
Twins Zain and Zoya, 12, who were killed during the recent conflict
Rameez (left), his wife, and children
Their aunt Maria Khan told Sky News: “The bombs fell behind them while they were getting out, Zoya was hit at the back of her head, her ribs were broken and she was bleeding.
“My brother picked her up and within seconds she died in his arms. He saw a neighbour trying to resuscitate Zain, but he had already died.”
Maria Khan, Zoya and Zain’s aunt
Unable to hold back tears, she added: “That’s why us who live on the border areas want only peace. We know and experience the effects of real war. Our innocent children have died. This pain is unbearable and unreplaceable.”
For the moment, the precarious ceasefire between the countries is holding. But for so many it has come too late.
World
Powerful 8.8-magnitude earthquake causes tsunami in Russia’s Far East – with warnings issued for Japan, Hawaii and Alaska
A powerful 8.8-magnitude earthquake has struck off Russia’s far eastern Kamchatka Peninsula, causing a tsunami.
A tsunami of up to four metres (13 feet) was recorded in Kamchatka Peninsula, leading to evacuations and damaging buildings, officials said.
Tsunami warnings have been issued for Japan, the Philippines, Hawaii and parts of Alaska in the US.
The Honolulu Department of Emergency Management in Hawaii has called for the evacuation of some coastal areas, writing on X: “Take Action! Destructive tsunami waves expected.”
The first waves in Hawaii are expected to hit at 7pm local time (6am UK time).
The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has said waves of one to three meters (three to 10 feet) above tide level were possible along some coastal areas of Hawaii, Chile, Japan and the Solomon Islands.
Kamchatka Governor Vladimir Solodov had earlier said: “Today’s earthquake was serious and the strongest in decades of tremors.”
Follow latest: Tsunami live updates
Several people in the region sought medical assistance following the quake, Oleg Melnikov, regional health minister told Russia’s Tass state news agency.
“Unfortunately, there are some people injured during the seismic event. Some were hurt while running outside, and one patient jumped out of a window. A woman was also injured inside the new airport terminal,” Mr Melnikov said.
Russia’s Tass news agency reported from the biggest city nearby, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, that many people ran out into the street, while cabinets toppled inside homes, mirrors were broken, cars swayed on roads and balconies on buildings shook noticeably.
Power outages and mobile phone service failures were also reported in the capital of the Kamchatka region.
The first tsunami wave hit the coastal area of Severo-Kurilsk, the main settlement on Russia’s Kuril Islands in the Pacific, according to the local governor Valery Limarenko.
He said residents were safe and staying on high ground until the threat of a repeat wave was gone.
A regional branch of Russia’s geophysical service has said that “significant, noticeable” aftershocks with magnitudes of up to 7.5 after expected to continue for at least another month.
Japan issued a tsunami warning, saying it expects waves as high as three metres to arrive along large coastal areas along the Pacific Ocean.
Waves off the coast of the Hokkaido Prefecture in Japan after the tsunami warning was issued. Pic: AP
It has ordered the evacuation of some areas.
The National Tsunami Warning Center, based in Alaska, issued a tsunami warning for parts of the Alaska Aleutian Islands.
A tsunami warning also was extended to the US state of Hawaii, with the National Weather Service’s Pacific Tsunami Warning Center saying a tsunami from the quake had been generated that could cause damage along the coastlines of all the Hawaiian islands.
A tsunami “watch” was issued for portions of the West Coast, including California, Oregon, and Washington.
The US Geological Survey said the earthquake was shallow at a depth of 19.3 km (12 miles), and was centred about 125 km (80 miles) east-southeast of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, a city of 165,000 along the coast of Avacha Bay. It revised the magnitude up twice from 8.0 and 8.7 to 8.8 earlier.
Meanwhile, New Zealand’s disaster management agency has warned that the country’s coastal areas could expect “strong and unusual currents and unpredictable surges at the shore”.
In a national advisory alert, Civil Defence New Zealand said there was no immediate need to evacuate but said citizens should stay away from beaches and shore areas.
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“Children are eating out of piles of garbage” – that was the answer from UNICEF’s Salim Oweis when I asked if aid was now getting to those who need it.
The phone call was intended for background to try to get a clearer idea of the latest aid distribution in Gaza, but it’s a conversation I won’t forget.
“Parents are crushing whatever they can into water, most likely unclean water, because there is no infant milk or formula. The reports are horrific,” says Salim.
“Our colleagues are struggling to find enough food for themselves.”
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Sky News on Gaza aid-drop plane
A woman with an air-dropped food parcel in Gaza City. Pic: Reuters
It’s been three days since Israel announced humanitarian pauses to allow aid to get to starving people in Gaza but it’s not yet being felt on the ground.
I’m told more aid trucks have entered Kerem Shalom – the border crossing between Gaza and Israel – but that’s only the first stage of the journey.
The aid then needs to be collected and brought inside the Gaza Strip, then taken to partners on the ground for distribution.
It’s a lengthy process, and it needs to be accelerated with urgency.
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So far, lorries carrying famine preventative supplies have been collected – that’s high-energy biscuits, food for children between six months and two years, infant formula, vaccines and nappies.
Therapeutic food, which has a peanut butter like consistency, and is aimed to treat malnutrition has arrived at Kerem Shalom but there’s no confirmation yet on whether it’s made it in.
I had not heard of therapeutic food before. I’ve since learnt it is high in energy and micronutrients and won’t treat the complications of malnutrition, but will get a child out of the danger zone.
Vials of the DTP vaccine and infant formula were collected at the Kerem Shalom crossing on Sunday. Pic: UNICEF
There is an ongoing issue of desperate people attempting to loot these lorries as they enter Gaza.
“The more aid that goes in, the more the looting will decrease because people will trust that there is now food coming back in,” says Salim.
But the amount getting in is still a fraction of what is needed.
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The situation is so desperate, not everyone can wait until tomorrow for help. People are now dying everyday in Gaza due to hunger.
There is no time for wrangling over detail. Food is needed in mass quantities immediately. We have had warnings for months that Gaza was on the brink of famine. It’s now here.
For those working to help the most vulnerable and innocent in Gaza, it feels extremely personal.
“The rest of the world has failed the children and the civilians of Gaza,” says Salim.
“The world is numb and leaders of the world are apparently deaf.”
We are on our way to Gaza with the Jordanian military.
The aircraft is hot and noisy and as we get closer, the atmosphere gets more tense. Aircrew gesture with their hands to tell us how many minutes there are to go. Fifteen. Six. One.
The Jordanian military C-130 flies out over the sea before banking and heading inland for Gaza. The parachutes, attached to the top of each of the eight pallets, are prepared for the drop.
As land approaches, I look down. The ground is modern and built up – we’re still over southern Israel.
Then a few short minutes later, it’s clear we’ve crossed Gaza’s border.
The ground turns grey, the shapes of buildings disappear, there are no cars, no people.
You can see the outline of communities and villages that are now flattened. Mile after mile of grey rubble.
This mission by the Royal Jordanian Air Force is one of the first aid drop flights since Israel announced they could resume. It is carrying eight tonnes of food and baby formula.
Jordanian military personnel load aid parcels on to a plane in Zarqa, Jordan. Pic: Reuters
Pic: Reuters
Foreign nations know this is a deeply flawed way of delivering aid – road convoys are far more effective and can carry far more – but the Jordanian flight crew say the need in Gaza is so urgent, it’s simply an attempt to do something.
When the aircraft ramp opens, the aid is pushed out and it’s gone in seconds.
The parachutes seem peaceful as they open and their fall slows. But dropping food from the sky is a dangerous and undignified way to feed people.
On the ground it’s chaos.
Our colleagues in Gaza say the fighting for food has become lethal – gangs are now punching and stabbing people to reach it first. Most critically, it’s not getting to the weakest. To those who really need it.
One man becomes emotional as he describes racing to find food and leaving with nothing.
“I came only for my son,” he says. “I wouldn’t come here if it was just for me. When you have a child, they need bread.”
He’s an engineer in normal times and seems in disbelief that his life has come to this. “The aid comes from the sky and we have to run after it. I’ve never had to do this in my life.”
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Jordanian military personnel drop aid parcels over Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Humanitarian aid is airdropped over the central Gaza Strip, as seen from Khan Younis. Pic: AP
It is hoped Israel’s humanitarian pauses in fighting will rapidly increase food distribution by road but it’s very unclear how that is going.
Hospitals in Gaza have reported another 14 deaths from starvation in the last 24 hours, the Gaza health ministry said on Monday.
Airstrikes killed another at least 78 Palestinians across Gaza on Monday, local health officials said.
We cannot verify these numbers because Israel has not allowed international journalists access to Gaza.
And Monday’s flight came with strict media conditions.
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We were told the Israeli side had warned that any shots of Gaza filmed from the air could result in these aid flights being cancelled.
But Israel’s tight grip has not stopped the images from Gaza getting out, horrifying people around the world.
The question now is what more the international community will do about it.
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