MAC preview: Ohio will need to fend off Toledo, Buffalo as it looks for repeat
-
Bill Connelly
“There’s a lot of people talking about Group of 5, Power 4, the money and the resources and NIL. It’s about the players and it’s about lining up and banging heads and [may] the best man win. You saw that [Saturday].” — Northern Illinois athletic director Sean Frazier, after the Huskies’ 2024 upset of Notre Dame.
The MAC is proof that a big tent can produce occasionally incredible things. As college football keeps trending toward closing up shop and distributing more money to fewer schools, and as the idea of a so-called “super league” — one that would either limit or completely eliminate opportunities for MAC-level schools — continues to waft around, this league and its teams keep trying to find ways to make noise. NIU’s big moment in 2024 proved that, given enough opportunities, they can still do so. In the past 25 seasons, MAC teams have scored 78 wins over power-conference teams, and while nearly half of those have come from NIU (14), Bowling Green (12) and Toledo (11), 14 current and former MAC programs have posted at least one.
Current circumstances are making things awfully difficult, though. The bottom half of the MAC has always been pretty shaky, and 2024 was no exception: MAC teams occupied four of the bottom 15 slots in the year-end SP+ rankings, which also ranked 0-12 Kent State as the worst FBS team in four years. Then came a brutal offseason in which (A) NIU arranged to leave for the Mountain West in 2026, (B) MAC teams got hit harder than anyone else by the transfer portal and general attrition (the MAC’s 41.1% returning production average was more than 12 percentage points below the national average), (C) the reigning conference champion (Ohio) lost head coach Tim Albin to a Charlotte program that has had just one winning season ever in FBS, and (D) Bowling Green head coach Scot Loeffler left for an NFL position coach job in the spring.
In a college football universe with NIL money and unrestricted transfers, continuity is growing increasingly difficult in MACtion country. But the conference still boasts some proven coaches and high-level talent, and stars will inevitably emerge. Let’s preview the MAC!
Throughout the summer, Bill Connelly will preview every FBS conference, ultimately including all 136 FBS teams. The previews will include 2024 breakdowns, 2025 previews and team-by-team capsules.
2024 recap
NIU stole the early headlines, but injuries and offensive struggles rendered Thomas Hammock’s Huskies an afterthought in the conference race. By midseason, it became increasingly clear that Ohio and Miami (Ohio) were the MAC’s safest bets. Miami beat Ohio 30-20 in the regular season, but the Bobcats’ offense ignited from there, averaging 36.7 points during a season-ending seven-game winning streak that included a 38-3 throttling of Miami in the MAC championship game.
Continuity table
The continuity table looks at each team’s returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2024 FBS starts from both returning and incoming players and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2025. (Why “approximate”? Because schools sometimes make it very difficult to ascertain who redshirted and who didn’t.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.
From Miami corner Raion Strader (Auburn) to Bowling Green running back Terion Stewart (Virginia Tech) to NIU quarterback Ethan Hampton (Illinois) to Ball State tight end Tanner Koziol (Houston) to a number of high-level Ohio defenders, MAC teams lost numerous stars to power-conference schools. In all, eight MAC teams (including four with new head coaches) rank in the bottom 18 in returning production.
Toledo and Buffalo mostly avoided the same fate, however. The Rockets and Bulls both rank in the top 50 in returning production, and during an intriguing nine-win season in which his Bulls improved from 119th to 87th in SP+, second-year Buffalo head coach Pete Lembo was able to build a solid base of redshirt freshmen as well.
Despite losing Albin, Ohio attempted continuity by promoting offensive coordinator Brian Smith to head coach, and he was able to hold on to at least a few key pieces, including quarterback Parker Navarro, left tackle Davion Weatherspoon and safety DJ Walker. SP+ suggests that might be enough to keep the Bobcats in MAC contention.
2025 projections
Only four teams start out with top-100 projections, and they make sense: They’re the two who played in the title game last year (Ohio and Miami) and the two who return the most from 2024 bowl teams (Toledo and Buffalo). The odds of at least one of those teams clicking and playing at a top-50 or top-60 level are pretty good.
The odds are also pretty good that the bottom portion of the conference is going to be awfully poor. UMass returns to the MAC with a new coach (former Rutgers assistant Joe Harasymiak) and almost no expectations, and four of the bottom five slots in the recent SP+ projections went to MAC teams.
(* Akron is ineligible for the postseason due to APR issues.)
The aforementioned four top-100 teams have a combined 65% chance of winning the conference title. But I guess that means there’s still a greater than one-in-three chance of an underdog run, huh?
Five best games of 2025
Here are the five conference games that feature (A) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (B) a projected scoring margin of less than 10 points.
Oct. 11: Toledo at Bowling Green. Most of the MAC’s biggest games take place once the conference shifts to midweek MACtion games in November, but this will be an early tone-setter between a talented Toledo team with a navigable early schedule and a BGSU team with quite a few question marks and an intriguing new head coach in Eddie George.
Nov. 4: Miami (Ohio) at Ohio. Last year’s two best teams jockey for position. Miami is a projected favorite in the five games preceding this one.
Nov. 12: Toledo at Miami (Ohio). Two MACtion weeks, two huge games for Chuck Martin’s RedHawks.
Nov. 19: Miami (Ohio) at Buffalo. Make that three huge games in three weeks for Miami.
Nov. 28: Ohio at Buffalo. Buffalo’s schedule offers up a massive opportunity: After the season opener against Minnesota, Lembo’s Bulls are projected favorites in 10 straight games before Ohio visits over Thanksgiving weekend.
Conference title (and, technically, CFP) contenders
Head coach: Jason Candle (10th year, 73-40 overall)
2025 projection: 72nd in SP+ (77th offense, 63rd defense), 8.8 average wins, 6.4 conference wins
It feels impossible to adequately evaluate Jason Candle. On one hand, despite running the program with more consistent investment and high-quality recruiting than any conference mate, he’s won only two MAC titles in 10 years. It’s always going to feel like the title rate should be higher than that for the Rockets.
On the other hand, Candle’s Rockets have won 11 games twice and have taken down Arkansas, Iowa State, BYU, Mississippi State and Pitt (the last two were both in 2024). His next win will be his 74th at UT, passing Gary Pinkel’s total for the most in school history. He fielded some awesome offenses early in his tenure, and when the Toledo defense crumbled a few years ago, he made a fantastic defensive coordinator hire (Vince Kehres) to right the ship. He’s never finished with a losing record. Basically, he’s been good enough to keep his job but not quite good enough to get hired away by power-conference programs. And with solid continuity (especially at QB and in a very good secondary), it sure feels like he’ll have a chance at a third MAC title this season. After a season-opening visit to Kentucky, the Rockets are projected favorites in every remaining game.
Beating Mississippi State (by 24!) and Pitt but losing to Akron, among others, certainly suggests things went sideways for a bit last year. The main reason was an offense that slipped to 88th in offensive SP+, the worst ranking of the Candle era. The Rockets scored 15 or fewer in four MAC games, losing all four, and the run game was the primary culprit: The Rockets were just 124th in rushing success rate. The line was leaning on youngsters, and the RBs didn’t break nearly enough tackles.
Candle didn’t make any major staff changes but brought in four offensive line transfers, plus running backs Chip Trayanum (Kentucky) and Kenji Christian (NC A&T), to shore things up. If those moves work, the passing game, featuring veteran quarterback Tucker Gleason, last year’s leading receiver Junior Vandeross III and NIU transfer Trayvon Rudolph — and, perhaps, sophomore and former star recruit Zy’marion Lang — could be the primary beneficiary.
There are fewer questions on defense, where Kehres’ unit has averaged a 55.0 defensive SP+ ranking over the last three seasons. Granted, every starter in the front six is gone, but end Malachi Davis and tackle Martez Poynter are sturdy veterans, and the portal brought players like end Louce Julien (6.5 TFLs at UMass) and linebacker Hudson Miller (five starts at Purdue). The secondary was the strength of the UT defense last year, and five of last year’s top seven return, including a dynamite nickel back in Braden Awls. Sophomore transfers Amare Snowden and Braedyn Moore, both former blue-chippers from Wisconsin, could contribute quickly too.
Head coach: Brian Smith (first year)
2025 projection: 80th in SP+ (83rd offense, 79th defense), 7.4 average wins, 5.7 conference wins
Ohio won 10 games under Tim Albin in both 2022 and 2023 but lost an incredible 10 starters, led by quarterback Kurtis Rourke (Indiana) and all-conference tackle Kurt Danneker (Baylor), to power-conference transfers. It was an absolute bounty of talent walking out the door. And then the Bobcats won 11 games and a MAC title in 2024. It was easily one of the best coaching performances of the season. But instead of attempting to pull off a similar magic act in 2025, Albin left for a new project at Charlotte, and OC Brian Smith moved up to the bigger office.
In quarterback Parker Navarro (2,423 passing yards, 1,143 non-sack rushing yards in 2024), left tackle Davion Weatherspoon, safety DJ Walker and corner Tank Pearson, plus returning running back Sieh Bangura (who transferred to Minnesota in 2024 but returned), Smith kept some proven pieces in Athens, and by MAC standards, continuity levels aren’t too bad. But the concept of the double-dip is still a scary one. They still must replace their leading receiver, at least three starting offensive linemen, at least four rotation linemen and basically every linebacker for the second straight season. Even if you survive major turnover once, having to do so year after year — and while changing head coaches, no less — certainly brings about more opportunities for regression.
Bangura’s return is a welcome one; he and Navarro form one of the most proven MAC backfields, but they’ll have an awfully new line in front of them. Those responsible for only 20 of last year’s 70 OL starts are back, and four transfers, including small-school starters Nick Marinaro (Dartmouth) and Josh Waite (Shippensburg), might have to make immediate contributions. Leading receiver Coleman Owen is gone too, potentially leaving a big-play void.
Smith wisely held on to defensive coordinator John Hauser, whose first Bobcat defense kept opponents both inefficient and nonexplosive in 2024.
Like Toledo, Ohio boasts far more proven entities in the back than in the front. The combination of Walker, Pearson, nickel Adonis Williams, transfers Rickey Hyatt Jr. (South Alabama) and Ronald Jackson Jr. (Montana) and perhaps a youngster like sophomore Tony Mathis should keep quarterbacks frustrated. But senior tackle Bralen Henderson will see lots of new rotation pieces around him. Senior ends Kaci Seegars and Walter Bob Jr. should be solid up front, but depth is an obvious concern. No returning or incoming linebacker logged more than 17 snaps in 2024.
Head coach: Pete Lembo (second year, 9-4 overall)
2025 projection: 91st in SP+ (104th offense, 78th defense), 7.7 average wins, 5.5 conference wins
Ohio’s optimistic projection is based quite a bit on the Bobcats’ strong recent history. Buffalo, however, seems to have quite a bit more in the “proven entities” department. Pete Lembo was Ball State’s head coach from 2011-15 and engineered as many bowl trips (two) as the program has seen in the nine years since his departure. He engineered immediate improvement in his return to MAC life too, and now leading rusher Al-Jay Henderson, leading receiver Victor Snow, three starting O-linemen and 12 of 17 defenders with at least 200 snaps all return. The large load of redshirts should assure solid depth.
The defense didn’t grade out any better than the offense last year, but it seems to have fewer question marks in 2025. End Kobe Stewart and linebackers Red Murdock and Dion Crawford combined for 42.5 tackles for loss, 37 run stops and 20 sacks last season — no one else in this conference boasts that kind of play-making star power. The return of 300-pound senior George Wolo (injured in 2024) should assure the requisite size up front. The secondary gave up too many big plays last season (especially considering the quality of the pass rush), but returning seven of last year’s top eight DBs and adding both a young power-conference transfer (Arizona State corner Keontez Bradley) and a small-school star (Shepherd safety Miles Greer) offers more options.
The offense has a bit more to prove, but size should help: From a pure height-and-weight standpoint, the depth chart should look like something from a power conference. Henderson measures in at 6-foot-0, 210 pounds, wideouts Nik McMillan (6-1, 224) and Chance Morrow (6-6, 195) could play big roles, and two potential all-MAC guards, Trevor Brock and Tyler Doty, average 6-6 and 325 pounds between them. Snow, a former walk-on, is a little guy in the slot (5-8, 165), but he proved steady and durable in 2024, catching at least four passes in nine games.
Note that I haven’t said a word about the quarterback position yet. With C.J. Ogbonna gone, offensive coordinator Dave Patenaude will likely be choosing between 2024 backup Gunnar Gray and, more likely, journeyman Ta’Quan Roberson. Roberson has thrown for 2,188 career yards and was decent at UConn (one of his three former schools) in 2023. He should be able to lean on a solid run game, but Ogbonna was capable of big plays here and there, and Roberson has averaged just 10.3 yards per completion in his career. MAC contention will probably require more than that.
A couple of breaks away from a run
Head coach: Chuck Martin (12th year, 65-67 overall)
2025 projection: 96th in SP+ (135th offense, 35th defense), 6.5 average wins, 4.7 conference wins
Chuck Martin was designed in a lab to frustrate me. He eschews analytics as it pertains to fourth downs. (The RedHawks went for it just 11 times in 101 fourth-down opportunities, a 10.9% go rate that ranked 133rd in FBS.) He is all-in on the “play not to lose” game management approach, and it’s contributed to a 22-31 career record in one-score finishes since he began at Miami in 2014. He’s old-school in a lot of unhelpful ways.
He’s also one hell of a program builder. He took over when Miami was at a particularly low ebb, and he has built things brick by brick.
Miami, 2014-15: 5-19 record, 120.0 average SP+ ranking
Miami, 2016-22: 40-40 record, 93.9 average SP+ ranking
Miami, 2023-24: 20-8 record, 63.5 average SP+ ranking
Martin and his remarkably consistent staff — in 11 years, he’s had two offensive coordinators and three defensive coordinators — identify and develop talent well, play physical and reasonably uncomplicated ball, put major focus on special teams and create the highest floor of any MAC team.
We’re going to find out a lot about the stability of said floor in 2025. At this point I trust Martin to continue to produce solid two-deeps with athleticism that exceeds their recruiting rankings. But … damn, did the RedHawks lose a lot this offseason: Every primary offensive starter is gone, as are basically 5.5 of the starters in the defensive front six. The secondary remains mostly intact, but ace cornerback Raion Strader left for Auburn.
Martin inked only three defensive transfers — a solid show of faith in last year’s backups and potential stars like edge rusher Adam Trick and safety Silas Walters. But the offense underwent a portal overhaul: quarterback Dequan Finn (Toledo/Baylor), five receivers (including former Notre Dame blue-chipper Deion Colzie), two tight ends and three offensive linemen came aboard. Finn, running backs Kenny Tracy (injured in 2024) and Jordan Brunson should form the base of a strong run game if the offensive line holds up, and the defense gets the benefit of the doubt. But losing this much production is almost a guarantee of regression. We’ll see if Martin’s program-building prowess can prevent a collapse.
Head coach: Thomas Hammock (seventh year, 32-38 overall)
2025 projection: 106th in SP+ (133rd offense, 61st defense), 6.3 average wins, 4.5 conference wins
Like many evaluation-and-development guys, Thomas Hammock was relatively slow to embrace portal life. NIU’s head coach brought in just 15 total transfers from 2022-24, but he’s grabbed 13 this offseason. He needed reinforcements just about everywhere he looked. The Huskies’ classic upset of Notre Dame drove an eight-win season — NIU’s third winning year in four — but Hammock’s Huskies lost their starting quarterback, their top two running backs, their top four pass catchers, five of their top six offensive linemen, and 11 of 16 defenders with at least 200 snaps (including the top four defensive tackles). Defensive coordinator Nick Benedetto left for Fresno State, too.
For a wobbly offense, this turnover could be seen as an opportunity for renewal. NIU ranked 115th in offensive SP+ for each of the last two seasons; the run game was decent last season, but the Huskies ranked 103rd in yards per dropback with no discernible explosiveness in the passing game. Hammock made an inspired coordinator hire, bringing in Quinn Sanders, the University of Charleston head coach who oversaw the No. 1 offense in Division II (per SP+). Charleston combined a relentless run game with over-the-top passing; one could see how that might be appealing to the physicality-minded Hammock.
Hammock brought in quarterback Jackson Proctor, a decent dual-threat from Dartmouth, but QB appears to be Josh Holst‘s job to lose. The sophomore was strong in the Huskies’ 28-20 bowl win over Fresno State, and sophomore RB Telly Johnson Jr. became the go-to back late in the season. That’s a good starting point, but only one returning receiver gained more than 60 receiving yards, and the line will be loaded with sophomores and juniors. It’ll be big, though: Hammock has established a nice pipeline of guys listed at 6-foot-4 or taller and 300 pounds or heavier.
It’s harder to make light of the defensive turnover. NIU has averaged a top-40 defensive SP+ ranking over the last two seasons but basically returns 2.5 starters on that side of the ball. Defensive end Roy Williams and corner Jacob Finley are solid starting points on the perimeter, but new coordinator Rob Harley might need smaller-school transfers like tackle Dasean Dixon (Albany) and safety Jasper Beeler (Saginaw Valley State) to thrive quickly. Otherwise the two-deep will be loaded with freshmen and sophomores.
Head coach: Eddie George (first year)
2025 projection: 111th in SP+ (98th offense, 121st defense), 5.3 average wins, 4.0 conference wins
Scot Loeffler was starting to get somewhere. After going just 7-22 in his first three seasons at BGSU, he hovered around .500 each year from 2022 to 2024, but the underlying numbers (122nd in SP+ in 2022, 94th in 2023, 77th in 2024) suggested excellent progress. In 2024, the Falcons had their best offense in nine years and their best defense in 11. But Loeffler left to become the Philadelphia Eagles’ QBs coach in late February — an understandable but extremely inconvenient move.
BGSU made an intriguing replacement hire, however, in Eddie George, the Ohio State legend and, more recently, author of a nice revival at Tennessee State. After going 15-18 in his first three seasons at TSU, his Tigers jumped to 9-4 with a first FCS playoff bid last fall. He brought both TSU coordinators with him (OC Travis Partridge, DC Brandon Fisher), and after Loeffler had already added 15 transfers in the winter, George signed another 10.
Translation: This is going to be a new team. BGSU’s 59 returning starts are the third lowest in a turnover-heavy conference, and 47 of those starts are from one unit (OL). The defense returns basically 0.5 starters (safety Darius Lorfils, who started six games).
I’m really intrigued by some of the defensive newcomers, though. Defensive tackle Eriq George (son of the coach) had 12.5 TFLs for TSU, and linebacker Gideon Lampron had 26.5 TFLs at Dayton. Corners Mark Cannon Jr. (Illinois State) and Jalen McClendon (TSU) combined for four picks and 32 pass breakups. Throw in some youngsters with strong recruiting rankings — defensive lineman Collins Acheampong (UCLA), linebacker Andrew Hines (Wake Forest), safety Jay’Quan Bostic (Toledo), corner Key’on Washington (West Virginia) — and George might have something here.
The offense might not have quite as much upside, but experience could produce a high floor. The line indeed returns four starters, all seniors, and veterans Drew Pyne (Mizzou) and Justin Lamson (Stanford) will compete at QB. The skill corps, however, is a total mystery. Tight end Arlis Boardingham (Florida) is athletic, and receivers Brennan Ridley (Hampton) and Allen Middleton (Southern Illinois) combined for 1,018 receiving yards as FCS freshmen, but it’s hard to determine who might see a ton of the ball in 2025.
Head coach: Matt Drinkall (first year)
2025 projection: 117th in SP+ (127th offense, 102nd defense), 5.3 average wins, 4.0 conference wins
Matt Drinkall inherits personnel from a team that won only 13 games in its last three years under Jim McElwain, and he might institute a pretty big stylistic shift with unproven offensive personnel. This doesn’t feel like the start of an “a couple of breaks away from a run” tale. But a friendly schedule and actual defensive continuity — a rare commodity in this conference — might make the Chippewas improvement candidates.
Drinkall brings NAIA success to the table — he improved Kansas Wesleyan from 2-9 to 13-1 with a playoff semifinal run over five years in Salina — and he was asked by Jeff Monken to modernize Army’s option attack following rule changes in 2023. The changes didn’t really take, and he was demoted to Army O-line coach in 2024, but the Iowa grad still has Midwestern ties and an interesting offensive background.
We probably won’t see much of an option attack with incumbent Joe Labas the likely starting QB. Labas started half of 2024 before a season-ending injury; his full-season numbers (seven TDs, seven INTs) were colored by a horrid, five-INT performance against Florida International, but he wasn’t much of a runner regardless. The return of slot man Tyson Davis (injured in 2023) assures at least one experienced wideout, but no other returnee had more than 66 receiving yards in 2024, and Tulane transfer Trey Cornist is officially the most proven running back … with 149 rushing yards last year. Drinkall is an O-line guy, and CMU should have good size up front, plus maybe some help from FCS transfers John Iannuzzi (Columbia) and Jacob Russell (Valpo).
Veteran Sean Cronin, most recently Army’s D-line coach, takes over as defensive coordinator, and his No. 1 task is bringing stability to a dramatically all-or-nothing unit: CMU ranked 11th nationally in stuff rate and 13th in sack rate but gave up a spectacular number of big plays. Linebackers Jordan Kwiatkowski and Dakota Cochran (combined: 23.5 TFLs) are thrilling, and safety Caleb Spann thrives near the line of scrimmage. They are undeniable playmakers, and cornerback Kalen Carroll (Cincinnati) is one of the conference’s few incoming power-conference starters. But glitches were devastating in 2024, and Cronin will likely dial the risk profile back a bit.
Head coach: Chris Creighton (12th year, 57-75 overall)
2025 projection: 113th in SP+ (116th offense, 111th defense), 5.1 average wins, 3.5 conference wins
Chris Creighton has been pulling off .500ish seasons at EMU for long enough that we’re forgetting how impressive going .500 at EMU really is. The Eagles won five games just three times in the 24 seasons before Creighton’s arrival from Drake in 2014, and now they’ve bowled six times in the past nine years. Collapsing from 5-2 to 5-7 last year, thanks to both epic injury issues and close defeats, was a genuine disappointment instead of a roundabout accomplishment.
With so many MAC programs dealing with major turnover, this would feel like an opportunity for Creighton and EMU … if they weren’t dealing with the same thing. The Eagles return only four players who started more than five games last season, though the injuries meant that quite a few of the returnees saw the field. That’s especially true on defense, where 11 returnees started at least once. Still, Creighton brought in seven defensive transfers (plus four JUCOs) to assure a rebound for a unit that collapsed from 67th to 115th in defensive SP+. New playmakers need to emerge, but defensive end Jefferson Adam made 5.5 TFLs in just 185 snaps, and nickel back Barry Manning had three run stops and two pass breakups in 193 snaps; both could become stars with starter-level playing time.
The offense collapsed to 130th in offensive SP+ in 2023 but rebounded a bit last year despite 18 guys starting at least one game. Only six of those 18 return, but I’m intrigued by newcomers like quarterback Cameron Edge (Maryland) and running back James Jointer Jr. (Liberty), and receiver Terry Lockett Jr. is one of the league’s more explosive returning wideouts. The bar for further improvement is pretty low — just keep guys semi-healthy, and you could return to the top 100.
Since Creighton’s arrival, only NIU has played in more one-score games among MAC teams than EMU — almost surprising considering EMU’s fast-paced offense and fourth-down willingness — and that dynamic probably won’t change in 2025: Ten of the Eagles’ 12 games are projected within single digits, and six of the last eight are projected within a touchdown. Win the close ones they didn’t win last year, and 2025 will be pretty exciting.
Just looking for a path to 6-6
Head coach: Lance Taylor (third year, 10-15 overall)
2025 projection: 118th in SP+ (112th offense, 117th defense), 4.8 average wins, 3.5 conference wins
After back-to-back losing seasons for a seemingly stalling WMU program, 2024 brought some positivity: Thanks primarily to a 5-1 record against teams ranked in the triple digits in SP+, Lance Taylor’s Broncos eked out six wins and a bowl bid.
In terms of balancing efficiency and explosiveness, the WMU offense was one of the more well-rounded in the conference.
Walt Bell’s offense is predicated around strong rushing and quick passing; it’s an obvious concern that only 2.5 starters return (tight end Blake Bosma, guard John Hofer and receiver and seven-game starter Malique Dieudonne), but junior running back Jalen Buckley (683 yards, nine TDs) is good, Bosma (88% catch rate) is an efficiency cheat code, and Taylor brought in intriguing power-conference transfers such as running back Cole Cabana (Michigan), receiver Christian Leary (Alabama/Georgia Tech) and linemen Raheem Anderson (Michigan) and Hunter Whitenack (Illinois). Quarterback Hayden Wolff is gone, but I think either sophomore Broc Lowry or JC All-American Brady Jones will fill in pretty well there.
The defense hasn’t yet generated any traction under Taylor, who is on his third coordinator in three years. New DC Chris O’Leary was a Notre Dame analyst and, in 2024, the safeties coach for Jim Harbaugh’s L.A. Chargers. This feels like a high-ceiling, low-floor hire, and O’Leary’s success in 2025 will be derived primarily from a number of smaller-school transfers, the most intriguing of which are probably defensive end Kershawn Fisher (Nicholls), linebacker Sefa Saipaia (Ferris State), corner Jordon Thomas (Eastern Kentucky) and safety Marvin Smith (Alabama A&M). Returning safety Tate Hallock is a keeper, but newcomers will tell the tale.
Head coach: Joe Moorhead (fourth year, 8-28 overall)
2025 projection: 132nd in SP+ (131st offense, 120th defense), 4.5 average wins, 3.2 conference wins
In three years at Akron, Joe Moorhead has proved to be a pretty solid talent evaluator, and going 4-8 in 2024 — after the Zips went a combined 7-47 from 2019-23 — was an undeniable success. But hard jobs remain hard in perpetuity; Moorhead hasn’t made any progress on offense (average offensive SP+ ranking: 126.7), the Zips’ APR scores have dropped enough to get them banned from the postseason (not that six wins was particularly likely anyway), and Moorhead’s primary reward for solid talent identification is that said talent has been plucked away: Seven Zips transferred to power-conference teams this offseason.
It’s kind of a lost year already, in other words. But in Michael Johnson Jr. (Syracuse), running back Chris Gee (Colgate), O-lineman Allen Jones Jr. (West Alabama), prolific linebacker Cam Hollobaugh (Walsh), safety Mehki Flowers (Penn State) and others, Moorhead’s 2025 transfer haul has decent upside. So, too, might returnees like veteran quarterback Ben Finley, 6-foot-7 defensive end Bruno Dall, linebacker Shammond Cooper (injured in 2023) and junior corner Elijah Reed.
Akron is a projected favorite in only three games but is a projected one-score underdog in five others — overachieving against projections just a little could make this a decent season, even if bowling is already off the table.
Head coach: Mike Uremovich (first year)
2025 projection: 134th in SP+ (123rd offense, 131st defense), 3.4 average wins, 2.5 conference wins
After the slow rise and equally slow fall of the eight-year Mike Neu era, Mike Uremovich takes the reins at BSU. The NIU grad and former Temple and NIU offensive coordinator knows the MAC and has crafted success from limited Midwestern resources at both NAIA’s St. Francis (Illinois) and FCS’ Butler. His 2024 Butler team ranked 35th in SP+, easily the highest in the non-scholarship Pioneer Conference.
Uremovich’s offense is generally built around adapting to player strengths, and the primary strength of his 2025 Cardinals might be versatility. Senior quarterback Kiael Kelly is a better athlete than passer, and running back transfer Qua Ashley (Kennesaw State) caught 28 balls out of the backfield last year. Throw in slot man (and punt returner) Qian Magwood and 5-foot-8 Bucknell WR transfer Eric Weatherly, and you’ve got a set of bouncy and versatile, if not particularly large, skill-corps guys. They could also have the largest pair of tackles in the MAC with returnee Chris Hood (6-foot-10!) potentially pairing with Butler transfer Adam Dolan (6-foot-8), for whatever that’s worth.
Despite BSU’s defensive collapse, Uremovich kept coordinator Jeff Knowles in place, and with good reason: He was Uremovich’s DC at Butler in 2023. The defensive front returns disruptive options in linebacker Joey Stemler and tackle Darin Conley, but a poor secondary has been overhauled. Uremovich brought in 10 defensive transfers, but only three are seniors — this might be a multiyear rebuild on D.
Head coach: Joe Harasymiak (first year)
2025 projection: 13th in SP+ (119th offense, 135th defense), 3.5 average wins, 2.2 conference wins
It’s been a pretty directionless FBS run for UMass. The Minutemen spent their first four FBS seasons in the MAC before choosing independence over all-sports membership, but after nine years and just 18 wins, they’re back. At head coach, they’ve tried veteran retreads (Mark Whipple, Don Brown) and young hotshots (Walt Bell), and nothing has generated traction. Now it’s time to go Full Rutgers. Massachusetts native Joe Harasymiak takes over after three years as Greg Schiano’s defensive coordinator at RU. Schiano is the ultimate, obsessive “skip no steps” program builder, and one can see the appeal to such an approach at UMass.
Harasymiak brought in 34 transfers, but while a few of them are seniors who could contribute quickly — quarterback Grant Jordan (Yale), offensive lineman Mike Entwistle (Harvard), defensive end Josh Nobles (Jackson State), linebacker Timmy Hinspeter (Rutgers), safety Malcolm Greene (Virginia) — some of the more intriguing players on the roster are underclassmen.
Redshirt freshman quarterback AJ Hairston could fend off both Jordan and Utah transfer Brandon Rose for playing time at QB, while transfers like running back Rocko Griffin (UTSA), receiver Tyree Kelly (USF), tackle Malachi Madison (Virginia Tech), linebacker Nick Hawthorne (Boise State) and disruptive safeties Kendall Bournes (Concord) and Zeraun Daniel (Georgetown) are all juniors or younger.
This is going to take some time. UMass is a projected favorite in only one 2025 game, but hey, when you’ve averaged only two wins per season in FBS, the bar for progress is awfully low.
Interim head coach: Mark Carney
2025 projection: 136th in SP+ (134th offense, 133rd defense), 2.8 average wins, 2.2 conference wins
If the bar is low at UMass, it’s just laying on the floor at Kent State. Under head coach Kenni Burns, the Golden Flashes went just 1-23 in two seasons, but it’s actually even worse than that: In my year-end, all-division SP+ rankings, they not only ranked a distant last among the 134 FBS teams, they ranked 227th overall, behind 79 FCS teams and 14 Division II teams. They would have been well below average in the FCS’ Missouri Valley Football Conference. Hell, they’d have been fourth in D2’s GLIAC. This was an utterly atrocious football team.
That just means there’s nowhere to go but up, right? Even with Burns getting dismissed at just about the most awkward possible time of year (mid-April) and offensive coordinator Mark Carney taking over as interim head coach, it’s going to be almost impossible to be that bad again.
I’m not going to try to sell you on the merits of transfers like quarterback CJ Montes (Fordham), offensive lineman Jamarcus Hill (Southeast Missouri), defensive end Jamond Mathis (Southern Illinois) and defensive tackle Thomas Aden (Pitt) or genuinely decent returnees like guard Dustyn Morell or nickelback Canaan Williams. I’m just going to note that, with so many other MAC teams facing major turnover, Kent State could be close enough to the rest of the pack to win a game or two. And when the bar is set at “midtier GLIAC team,” it’s pretty easy to maybe show a sign or two of progress.
-
Bill Connelly
No matter how we go about setting our preseason expectations for the 2025 college football season — polls, computer projections, pure gut instincts — we’re going to end up mostly right. We’re going to assume that the teams that were the best last season will be the best this season, and that’s going to bear out in most instances.
In other cases, however, we’re going to be hilariously incorrect. Take last season’s preseason top 10: Six of those teams ended up in the year-end top six and scored College Football Playoff bids, and two others were among the top three teams to miss the CFP. Very accurate! But then, preseason No. 9 Michigan and No. 10 Florida State fell from a combined 28-1 the year before to 10-15. Both finished unranked. They basically switched bodies, “Freaky Friday” style, with Arizona State and Indiana, who went from a combined 6-18 in 2023 to 24-5 with top-10 finishes and playoff bids.
Every season is mostly predictable except for a handful of absolute shocks. And the goal of this annual piece is to identify which of last season’s good surprise teams are most likely to sustain their gains and which of the bad surprise programs are most likely to bounce back. Using SP+ ratings and luck factors as our guide, we can usually pinpoint the likeliest teams for each category.
In last year’s edition of this column, the seven “most likely to sustain breakthroughs” teams I named went from a combined 49-41 with an average SP+ ranking of 53.9 to 60-32 and 40.6, respectively. Colorado, Colorado State and Miami won an additional 11 more games between them, while Colorado, Miami, Rutgers and Virginia Tech each improved by at least 14 more spots in SP+. Meanwhile, the six teams I named for the “most likely to rebound from a regression season” list went from a combined 27-47 with an 81.5 average ranking to 42-34 and 54.7. Five improved their win totals, and all six improved their SP+ rankings. Success!
The preseason poll rankings and final SP+ projections for 2025 are coming in August. But while we wait, let’s once again predict some of this coming season’s happier stories. Which of 2024’s unexpected breakthroughs might find even further heights? Which of last year’s disappointments are likeliest to bounce back?
Teams most likely to sustain 2024 gains
When our team surges to unexpected success in a given season, we like to think of this as the new reality. We’re good now! That’s never going to change again! Unfortunately, reality rarely agrees with that. Over the past 20 years, we’ve seen an average of 1.9 teams improving by at least 20 ratings points in SP+ and an average of 18.0 improving by at least 10 points. On average, these teams regress the next season 61% of the time, 32% by at least a touchdown.
These numbers haven’t necessarily changed in the 2020s, aka the transfer portal era. The rules of roster management have been completely altered, but since 2021 we’ve still seen 18.3 teams improving by 10-plus points in a given season. Interestingly, only 54% regressed the next year, 25% by a touchdown or more. We don’t yet know whether this is a small-sample effect or a genuine shift in the data, so I’ll still lean on the historic averages, but it’s something to watch.
In 2024, 16 teams improved by at least 10 points. Based on the averages above, we can expect about 40% of them — six or seven — to improve further in 2025. Only two were projected to do so in my most recent SP+ rankings, which means I’ll have to stray from the numbers to pull the list together. But after writing lengthy conference previews about each team, here are the teams I believe are the likeliest candidates to build on 2024’s surprise success:
2023: 3-9 record, 107th in SP+ (-11.3 adjusted points per game, or 11.3 worse than the average college football team)
2024: 11-3, 35th (+9.4)
2025 projection (as of May): 8.4 average wins, 22nd (+12.2)
From my Big 12 preview: “It’s hard to know what to do with a late-season surge. ASU was solid for about two-thirds of the season and outstanding for one-third, and while that wasn’t enough to earn the trust of SP+ — and a 6-2 record in one-score finishes will be tough to duplicate — enough of last year’s key contributors return to think that this could be a top-15-level team again.”
Because of all those close wins, it might be difficult for Kenny Dillingham’s Sun Devils to match last year’s 11-win total, especially without Cam Skattebo around to grind out tough-as-hell yards at times. But Skattebo is just about the only major departure. Quarterback Sam Leavitt should have an improved receiving corps, where Jordyn Tyson is joined by late-2024 big-play producer Malik McClain, veteran transfer Jalen Moss (Fresno State) and high-upside youngsters such as Noble Johnson (Clemson) and Jaren Hamilton (Alabama). Meanwhile, the offensive line and a defense that also surged down the stretch are both loaded with seniors.
This is a team built for another run and further improvement on paper, even if the god of close games turns against it at some point.
2023: 3-9 record, 97th in SP+ (-8.3 adjusted PPG)
2024: 8-5, 38th (+8.4)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.7 average wins, 35th (+7.5)
Again from the Big 12 preview: “Jake Spavital’s offense was magnificent. Sawyer Robertson threw for 3,071 yards and 28 TDs, while backs Bryson Washington and Dawson Pendergrass rushed for 1,699 rushing yards and 18 TDs. Baylor gained at least 20 yards on 8.7% of its snaps (10th in FBS) while gaining zero or fewer on just 27.7% (19th). That combination will score you lots of points. … The Bears scored 31 or more points nine times last year, and it would be a surprise if they did so fewer times in 2025. Big 12 contention, then, is up to the defense.”
Baylor won the last six games of the regular season, scoring an average of 12.1 points more than projected, and almost all of the reasons for the offensive surge return. It’s indeed up to Matt Powledge’s defense — which also improved in 2024, but only to 63rd in defensive SP+ — to determine the Bears’ fate. Experience won’t be an issue. Dave Aranda added 13 transfers to go with the 10 returnees who saw 200-plus snaps last year. And there are known playmakers such as tackle Jackie Marshall, incoming linebacker Travion Barnes (FIU) and nickelback Carl Williams IV, too. After rebounding into the SP+ top 40 last season, it sure looks like the Bears are built to crack the top 30 this time around.
2023: 3-9 record, 119th in SP+ (-15.2 adjusted PPG)
2024: 9-4, 87th (-4.0)
2025 projection (as of May): 7.7 average wins, 91st (-7.1)
From my MAC preview: “[Pete Lembo] engineered immediate improvement in his return to MAC life, and now leading rusher Al-Jay Henderson, leading receiver Victor Snow, three starting O-linemen and 12 of 17 defenders with at least 200 snaps all return. … From a pure height-and-weight standpoint, the depth chart should look like something from a power conference.”
Buffalo was extremely all-or-nothing last season, overachieving against SP+ projections by at least 11 points six times and underachieving by that much three times. But that’s a net gain! Even without any semblance of offensive efficiency, the Bulls fielded their best team in four years. This time around, they should have enough offensive experience to avoid quite as many three-and-outs, and maybe no Group of 5 defense returns a proven trio of disruptors in end Kobe Stewart, outside linebacker Dion Crawford and inside linebacker Red Murdock. SP+ projects UB as the third-best team in the MAC, but after a season-opening trip to Minnesota — not a gimme for the Golden Gophers — the Bulls are at least slight projected favorites in every game.
I wish I felt better about their quarterback situation, where either journeyman Ta’Quan Roberson or little-used backup Gunnar Gray is likely to start. But aside from maybe Toledo, no other MAC team brings this much upside to the table in 2025.
2023: 5-7 record, 75th in SP+ (-2.5 adjusted PPG)
2024: 10-3, 31st (+9.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 8.7 average wins, 19th (+14.3)
From my Big Ten preview: “The Illini won 10 games for the first time in 23 years, and [Bret] Bielema rang in 2025 by embarrassing Shane Beamer on national television. Illinois finished 16th in the AP poll, and now it leads the conference in returning production. … If experience produces sturdy play early in the season, look out. By the end of September, the Illini will have played relative toss-ups at Duke and Indiana and at home against USC. Win all three, and they’re going to be in the playoff discussion for quite a while. But it’s hard to get the breaks you need in close games for two straight years.”
Like Arizona State, Illinois could be another “improve on paper, regress in the win column” team depending on how long the good fortune in close games continues. But of the top four projected teams in the Big Ten, the Illini play only one and should win quite a few games by well more than one score. New go-to running back Aidan Laughery could enjoy a huge season, and if quarterback Luke Altmyer gets a good year from at least one transfer receiver — the most likely of the bunch: Hudson Clement (West Virginia) — this offense should be Illinois’ first top-50 attack in 15 years (!). I’m concerned about the remodeled defensive line, but coordinator Aaron Henry gets the benefit of the doubt. This should be a solid team.
0:42
Carson Beck: Joining Miami feels like ‘a full-circle moment’
Carson Beck joins “SportsCenter” to discuss growing up a Florida Gators fan and playing college football for some of their biggest rivals.
2023: 7-6 record, 28th in SP+ (+9.6 adjusted PPG)
2024: 10-3, 10th (+21.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 9.2 average wins, 12th (+18.8)
From my ACC preview: “After a dismal first season in charge — Miami fell to 5-7 and 71st in SP+ in 2022 — things have improved dramatically. The Canes jumped to 7-6 and 28th in 2023, and even with a defense that was actively working against the team for half the season, they improved further, to 10-3 and 10th in SP+, last season. … I like what Miami will have in the trenches, and despite the occasional INTs, [Georgia transfer Carson] Beck is a very good QB. But Miami will need the teardowns in the receiving corps and secondary to stick. I’m pretty sure the latter will, but I’m not sure Beck will have enough strong pass catchers.”
This one’s definitely more about sustaining gains than prepping for another surge. You can only rise so much higher than 10th. But I do think Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes have a chance of matching last year’s general quality, albeit in a more balanced way: The offense will almost certainly regress a bit while the defense improves. If the latter matches or outpaces the former, voila, sustained gains!
With good health and better help up front, defensive line star Rueben Bain Jr. could have a huge year, and I really like the additions in the secondary, especially ultra-aggressive safety Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State). The Miami defense should have never been as poor as it was late last fall, but it will have a chance to make amends in 2025.
2023: 3-9 record, 91st in SP+ (-7.3 adjusted PPG)
2024: 7-6, 51st (+4.9)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.1 average wins, 47th (+3.4)
From the ACC preview: “As delightful as they looked during their unbeaten start, they looked equally lost during an 0-6 finish. They more than doubled their win total in the most disappointing possible way. … [Desmond Reid] aside, most of last year’s most exciting players were freshmen and sophomores, and one can see how experience might sand down rough edges and make Pitt an ACC dark horse. But that late-season collapse was pretty ugly. It’s up to the Panthers to prove whether the first or second half of the season showed us the way forward.”
It’s hard to trust any Pitt prediction. The Panthers improved by five wins in 2021, regressed by six in 2023, then improved by four in 2024. In that tiny span, they have ranked as high as sixth in offensive SP+ and as low as 108th. They’re capable of anything. But last year’s offense jumped to 54th and would have risen even further if quarterback Eli Holstein had stayed healthy. With Holstein, Reid, a more experienced offensive line and big-time defensive disruptors such as linebacker Kyle Louis and end Jimmy Scott, this is at least a top-40 team. We’ll see about the “ACC dark horse” line above, but further improvement feels likely.
Teams most likely to rebound from a 2024 stumble
In a universe in which you’re measured by wins and losses, everything is zero-sum: If someone’s rising, someone’s falling. And the trend for collapses is almost identical to the trend for sudden surges. Over the past 20 years, an average of 1.8 teams have collapsed by at least 20 adjusted points per game in SP+, and an average of 16.9 have fallen by at least 10 points. Of those teams that stumble, 64% of them improve the next season and 36% by at least a touchdown. The trends of the 2020s have been relatively similar: Only about 14.5 teams have regressed by 10-plus points over the past four seasons — again, we’ll see if that’s a trend — and 68% have rebounded the next year.
Last year, two teams regressed by 20-plus points: the aforementioned Florida State Seminoles and Michigan Wolverines. Twelve others fell by at least 10 points. Averages suggest about 36% of these 14 teams — around five — will improve by a touchdown or more in 2025. Here are the five I think are most likely:
2023: 9-4 record, 45th in SP+ (+5.9 adjusted PPG)
2024: 5-7, 111th (-11.7)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.2 average wins, 94th (-7.3)
From my Mountain West preview: “A lost season became an encouraging one late: Over their last five games, the Falcons overachieved against projections by an average of 17.7 points per game, and after a 20-3 loss to Army dropped them to 1-7, they won their last four games, most impressively destroying Oregon State, 28-0. The full-season averages still weren’t great, but as with Michigan, Air Force basically saw its win total cut in half from the previous season but somehow still ended up in a good mood.”
Even with Air Force’s recent success — at least nine wins in four consecutive full seasons — it was easy to predict a collapse in 2024, as the Falcons had one of the lowest returning production averages in recent memory. It’s almost as easy to predict a solid rebound this year, mainly because it already started late last season. If junior Josh Johnson is half-decent at quarterback, the offense should get back on track with help from fullback Dylan Carson, big-play slot back Cade Harris and error-free center Costen Cooley. The defense has quite a bit to replace in the secondary, but veteran defensive tackle Payton Zdroik should ensure disruption up front. This team should at least climb back to 7-5 or 8-4.
0:52
FSU QB Castellanos stands by Alabama jab
Florida State quarterback Tommy Castellanos speaks to reporters about what he meant by his jab at Alabama during the summer.
2023: 13-1 record, ninth in SP+ (+19.4 adjusted PPG)
2024: 2-10, 83rd (-3.2)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.8 average wins, 36th (+7.2)
Again from the ACC preview: “This was a collapse on the scale of Bobby Petrino’s last season at Louisville, Texas’ first season after 2009 BCS Championship disappointment and Notre Dame’s 2007 swoon under Charlie Weis. And it’s noteworthy that none of the coaches in charge during those collapses could right the ship. But [Mike] Norvell will try. … There are enough proven entities to assume the defense will bounce back. In fact, the collapse was so significant last season that we should assume some progression toward the mean everywhere. But how much of a rebound can you pull off after such a collapse?”
This is some pretty low-hanging fruit — if the Seminoles are average in 2025, that will qualify as solid improvement after last season’s disintegration. I’m not sure what to expect from a remodeled offense; new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn has an awfully Malzahn-friendly QB in the speedy transfer Tommy Castellanos (Boston College) and new potential big-play receivers in Duce Robinson (USC), Squirrel White (Tennessee) and Randy Pittman Jr. (UCF), but it might be hard to get a rebuilt offensive line up to speed. Regardless, the defensive front six has some new playmakers, and again, the bar for improvement is incredibly low. I’m not sure how many games Norvell needs to win to save his job, but the Noles will almost certainly not go 2-10 again.
2023: 15-0 record, first in SP+ (+31.3 adjusted PPG)
2024: 8-5, 26th (+10.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 9.8 average wins, 10th (+21.5)
From the Big Ten preview: “The Wolverines went unbeaten when scoring at least 24 points (national scoring average: 28.0), but they reached that mark in only six of 13 games thanks primarily to a black hole at the QB position. They ranked 91st in Total QBR and 131st — last nationally among non-service academies — in passing yards per game (129.1). … Either five-star freshman Bryce Underwood or veteran transfer Mikey Keene (Fresno State) will begin the season at QB for Moore’s second Michigan team, and it’s probably fair to assume that Underwood will finish it there. His first spring was up-and-down, but going from the aforementioned black hole to the best high school prospect in the country is quite the leap.”
Seeing Michigan projected 10th overall was a bit concerning, as the offense still has loads of questions. But I’d be surprised if the Wolverines didn’t have a top-10 defense, and the schedule features only one projected top-15 team, per SP+. And they won eight games and beat Ohio State and Alabama while getting almost nothing from the QB. Even if Underwood isn’t ready to lead a CFP team yet, a return to 9-3 or so and occasional actual passing yardage don’t seem like too much to ask.
2023: 3-9 record, 116th in SP+ (-14.4 adjusted PPG)
2024: 1-11, 133rd (-25.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 3.4 average wins, 128th (-17.7)
From my Sun Belt preview: “What happens when you graft one-quarter of last year’s Sun Belt championship roster onto the worst roster in the conference? We’re going to find out! After signing more than 50 transfers in addition to the normal freshman/JUCO signing class, [Charles Huff] has almost completely flipped the roster in six months. … SP+ is setting the bar low because things like “recent history” still tend to matter more often than not. But as with Marshall, this is a total, unprojectable roster reset.”
The story of Southern Miss in 2025 could only take place in 2025 and no time before. Southern Miss was wretched last season, but almost no one’s left from that team. Meanwhile, quarterback Braylon Braxton, five receivers, four defensive linemen and eight defensive backs — including star corner Josh Moten — and quite a few others followed Charles Huff from Marshall to Hattiesburg.
I have no idea how to set accurate expectations, but as with Florida State, this is low-hanging fruit. It will be an improvement if the Golden Eagles go 3-9 and rank in the 120s. And with zero opponents projected higher than 71st in SP+, topping the 4.5 wins set at ESPN BET doesn’t seem outlandish.
2023: 14-1 record, 13th in SP+ (+16.4 adjusted PPG)
2024: 6-7, 58th (+3.1)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.3 average wins, 39th (+6.4)
Again from the Big Ten preview: “If [Demond Williams Jr.] is genuinely good — and doesn’t take a million sacks — then there’s a legitimate chance for a second-year leap for the UW offense. He’ll have a relatively experienced line in front of him and a skill corps that includes 1,000-yard back Jonah Coleman (and a physical backup in sophomore Adam Mohammed), receivers Denzel Boston and Penn State transfer Omari Evans, and another sophomore in big-play tight end Decker DeGraaf. … Fisch generated lots of traction in his second season at Arizona, and it’s not hard to envision something similar happening at UW. But he’ll need to hit on a lot of transfers, and he’ll need his faith in a guy with 153 dropbacks wholly rewarded.”
In the past four seasons, Washington has bounced from 4-8 to 11-2 to 14-1 to 6-7. That’s enough to give you motion sickness, but the combination of Williams, Coleman, Boston and a semi-experienced offensive line should do good things. Plus, the defense has enough exciting new players — tackle Ta’ita’i Uiagalelei (Arizona), linebacker Xe’ree Alexander (UCF), corner Tacario Davis (Arizona), safeties CJ Christian (Florida International) and Alex McLaughlin (NAU) — that new coordinator Ryan Walters might get away with the aggressive man defense he usually prefers. Playing four projected top-20 teams could make 8-4 or so the ceiling this year, but improvement still seems likely.
-
Jesse Rogers
Chicago Cubs Hall of Fame second baseman Ryne Sandberg died on Monday at age 65. Sandberg, known for his power, speed and defensive prowess during his 16-year major league career, was the face of the Cubs during his 15 seasons with the franchise and a fan favorite throughout the sport.
Originally diagnosed with metastatic prostate cancer in January of 2024, Sandberg was still around the Cubs as recently as spring training — and just as he did in his playing days, he made his presence felt with his signature combination of power and grace.
As the baseball world mourns the loss of an icon, those who knew Sandberg best shared their favorite stories about the Hall of Famer.
‘Ryno would be out there at 9 a.m.’
Sandberg was traded from the Philadelphia Phillies to the Cubs in January 1982 after struggling during his first call-up in Philly. A legendarily hard worker, Sandberg was willing to do whatever it took to make sure his stay in Chicago would go differently.
Larry Bowa, who was dealt along with Sandberg in the trade for veteran infielder Ivan DeJesus, remembers the hours Sandberg put in as he transformed from a light-hitting rookie in Philadelphia to a budding superstar in Chicago.
“I think about how he handled himself when he first got called up. He struggled out of the gate. I watched this guy not let it affect him. It might have affected him on the inside, but the way he handled himself on the outside was great,” Bowa said.
“Ryno would be out there at 9 a.m. [Manager] Jim Frey would tell him [to] hit every ball over the tarp and into the seats down the left-field line in foul territory. Hit it with authority over that tarp. Ryno looked at him like he was crazy. ‘I want every ball with authority over that tarp,’ Frey kept telling him. He did it for a week straight. That’s how he learned how to pull the ball.”
‘Just ungodly consistent’
2:27
How Ryne Sandberg will be remembered in Chicago
Jesse Rogers reflects on Ryne Sandberg’s career in Chicago after he died on Monday at the age of 65.
After his power stroke clicked, it didn’t take long for Sandberg to take his game to the highest level. He was named National League MVP in 1984 after hitting .314 with 19 home runs and 19 triples, stealing 32 bases and leading the Cubs to their first postseason appearance in 39 years.
Perhaps no one had a better view for Sandberg’s dominant campaign than his close friend, Cubs leadoff hitter Bobby Dernier. The two batted 1-2 in the Chicago lineup and earned the nickname “The Daily Double” as they combined to score 208 runs that season.
“Just ungodly consistent,” Dernier said of what made Sandberg so great. “And the style of game back then demanded a little bit of baserunning prowess and being capable of stealing bases and scoring a lot of runs. And so that was our style. He was tremendous.
“Pitchers were always paying a little more attention to me on the bases than him at the plate, and that was a big mistake and he’d take full advantage. He’d almost giggle about it, is what I remember in the dugout.”
Sandberg cemented his legacy during that season with a signature game against the St. Louis Cardinals on June 23, forever known in Chicago as “The Sandberg Game.” He hit two game-tying home runs off Hall of Fame closer Bruce Sutter in the ninth and 10th innings before the Cubs won the game in the 11th — in front of a national TV audience.
“After he tied it up, I ended up hitting the ball off the wall, but if mine goes out, it’s probably never called the Sandberg game,” outfielder Gary Matthews said with a laugh. “He was great at everything that he did. I hit behind him and he was always on base.”
‘He had a perfect swing for his home ballpark’
Sandberg hit 282 career home runs during an era of baseball where second baseman weren’t known for that kind of power, but he was more than just a long ball threat. Six of those home runs — the second most off an opposing pitcher — were hit off Hall of Famer John Smoltz, who recalled one memorable afternoon for Sandberg.
“I gave up two home runs to him in a game and I had a [autograph] card show after the game and everyone in the world knew I gave up two home runs to Ryne Sandberg,” Smoltz said. “One was an inside-the-park home run. Those fans at the card show reminded me of that.
“He had a perfect swing for his home ballpark. He had a flatter swing that worked great for the angles at Wrigley Field, especially when the wind was blowing in.”
Sandberg was more than just an offensive threat; he also won nine consecutive Gold Glove awards during his time with the Cubs and posted a 123-game errorless streak.
“I used to tell Joe Morgan, ‘This guy doesn’t have to take a second seat to anybody on defense,'” Matthews said. “Morgan would say Ryne’s uniform was always clean. I said, ‘Well, you have to dive because you can’t get in front of it! Don’t get on him for perfecting the backhand.’ In the end Joe said, ‘You’re right.'”
‘He’s in a class by himself’
For all of his accomplishments on the field, the way Sandberg handled himself as a competitor and away from the game is what many who knew him best will remember about him.
“He’s an outstanding human being,” Bowa said. “That’s what I think of. Such a good family guy. His mental toughness is off the charts. Don’t let people deceive you by that little laugh he has all the time. He wanted to win as much as anybody. I’ve been around Pete Rose, and Ryno is right there.”
Smoltz added: “He’s in a class by himself. You would never know he was one of the greatest players ever, just by the way he carried himself and the ‘aw, shucks’ type attitude.
“I love competing against greatness that has integrity and character like Ryne Sandberg had. The way he carried himself, the way he was as a person is what I think about. It sure was nice to see him represent the sport and the city he played for.”
“Joy,” Dernier said. “That’s the first thing, and way so many more happiness types of stories. And it’s a grin on my face to think about him. And yeah, right now it’s melancholy that we know he’s gotten called up to the real big leagues. But I’m glad I knew him and I loved him being underestimated.”
‘Oh, man, I loved Ryno, but he’s lucky he was that good at baseball’
Of course, there were a few moments in Sandberg’s career where he wasn’t as gracious. In the Cubs clubhouse, teammates saw a different side of the Hall of Famer — a playful troublemaker and prankster.
“We had those chairs directors they use making movies, held together by sticks,” Matthews said. “Ryno would always take the sticks out, put the seat back in, and daily I’d fall to the ground. He’d be over there snickering or walking away.
“Or he would load your cigarette up and make it explode in a non-harmful way. Then when you figured it out, he would put two of those in the pack. He thought that was the funniest thing.”
Despite that kind of back-and-forth, Matthews and Sandberg often golfed together.
“I would ask for a few strokes,” Matthews said. “He would politely say, ‘no strokes, play better.’ He would hit some balls you couldn’t believe. Ball after ball. He would hit one and know it’s a good one but he’d ask, ‘Do you think that was any good?’ And just smile at me.
“Oh, man, I loved Ryno, but he’s lucky he was that good at baseball,” Matthews said with a laugh.
“He’d stir the pot and then walk away and look over his shoulder,” Bowa added. “He’d be cracking up after getting us going. He was so quiet outwardly with you guys [media], but not with us.”
‘He made such an impact on me ‘
After his playing days, Sandberg served as the manager of the Philadelphia Phillies from 2013 to 2015 before returning to Chicago, often putting on a uniform as a spring instructor and imparting the lessons from his Hall of Fame career to a new generation of Cubs.
“I just think it’s cool that he’s somebody that has kind of done everything in our sport but still doesn’t approach the game with any kind of ego,” current Chicago second baseman Nico Hoerner said. “He doesn’t talk like he has the answers to everything or the conversation is never about him.
“He’s kind of softspoken, but then if you got him going on something he really cared about, it’s really cool to hear him open up, whether it’s routines he had or how he took care of his body or just fun memories with teammates or playing at Wrigley.”
Shortstop Dansby Swanson added: “Just such a top-shelf human being. He made such an impact on me even in my short time of being able to be around him. Just an unbelievable human being and someone that I’m very, very grateful to have met and spent time with, whether it’s talking about life or talking about ball.”
It’s those attributes, the ones the baseball world got to see on the field and the ones only his teammates were able to witness, that were missed in retirement. But his attitude about life stands out for everyone.
“We talked about a lot of things, about defense and offense, but we talked about life, too,” rookie third baseman Matt Shaw said. “When he first came up, he struggled a little bit early on and he was like, ‘No matter what happens, you just got to keep believing in yourself and keep going.’ And I definitely take that to heart, and that’s something that I definitely think about a lot — is that belief to just to keep going.”
CHICAGO — Ryne Sandberg, a Hall of Fame second baseman who became one of baseball’s best all-around players while starring for the Chicago Cubs died Monday at age 65.
Sandberg was surrounded by his family when he died at his home, according to the team.
Sandberg announced in January 2024 that he was diagnosed with metastatic prostate cancer. He had chemotherapy and radiation treatments, and then said in August 2024 that he was cancer-free.
But he posted on Instagram on Dec. 10 that his cancer had returned and spread to other organs. He announced this month that he was still fighting, while “looking forward to making the most of every day with my loving family and friends.”
Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts said Sandberg “will be remembered as one of the all-time greats in nearly 150 years of this historic franchise.”
“His dedication to and respect for the game, along with his unrelenting integrity, grit, hustle, and competitive fire were hallmarks of his career,” Ricketts said in the team’s statement.
The Cubs said they would wear a special jersey patch to commemorate Sandberg for the rest of the season.
Sandberg was born and raised in Spokane, Washington. He was selected out of high school by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 20th round of the 1978 amateur draft.
He made his major league debut in 1981 and went 1-for-6 in 13 games with the Phillies. In January 1982, he was traded to Chicago with Larry Bowa for veteran infielder Ivan De Jesus.
It turned into one of the most lopsided deals in baseball history.
Sandberg hit .285 with 282 homers, 1,061 RBIs and 344 steals in 15 years with Chicago. He made 10 All-Star teams — winning the Home Run Derby in 1990 — and collected nine Gold Gloves.
“Ryne Sandberg was a legend of the Chicago Cubs franchise and a beloved figure throughout Major League Baseball,” MLB commissioner Rob Manfred said. “He was a five-tool player who excelled in every facet of the game thanks to his power, speed and work ethic.”
Even with Sandberg’s stellar play, the Cubs made only two postseason appearances in his time there.
He was the National League MVP in 1984, batting .314 with 19 homers, 84 RBIs, 32 steals, 19 triples and 114 runs scored. Chicago won the NL East and Sandberg hit .368 (7-for-19) in the playoffs, but the Cubs were eliminated by San Diego after winning the first two games of the NL Championship Series at Wrigley Field.
The 1984 season featured what Cubs fans still call “The Sandberg Game,” when he homered twice and drove in seven runs in a 12-11 victory over St. Louis in 11 innings on June 23.
The Cubs paid tribute to Sandberg and that game when they unveiled a statue of the infielder outside Wrigley Field on that date in 2024.
“He was a superhero in this city,” Jed Hoyer, Cubs president of baseball operations, said during a TV broadcast of the team’s game on July 20. “You think about [Michael] Jordan, Walter Payton and Ryne Sandberg all here at the same time, and I can’t imagine a person handling their fame better, their responsibility for a city better than he did.”
Sandberg led Chicago back to the playoffs in 1989, hitting .290 with 30 homers as the Cubs won the NL East. He batted .400 (8-for-20) in the NLCS, but Chicago lost to San Francisco in five games.
Sandberg set a career high with an NL-best 40 homers in 1990 and drove in a career-best 100 runs in 1990 and 1991, but he never made it back to the postseason. He retired after the 1997 season.
“When you examine the offense and defense, you’ll find some years where he was the best player you’ve ever seen in your life,” former Cubs first baseman Mark Grace said.
Sandberg was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2005, receiving 76.2% of the vote by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America in his third year on the ballot. The Cubs retired his No. 23 that same season.
“Ryne Sandberg had a relentless work ethic and an unshakable positive outlook,” Hall of Fame chair Jane Forbes Clark said. “With it, he inspired all those who knew him.”
Sandberg also managed the Phillies from August 2013 to June 2015, going 119-159. He got the interim job when Charlie Manuel was fired, and he resigned with the Phillies in the middle of a difficult 2015 season.
Sandberg is survived by his wife, Margaret; his children, Justin, Lindsey, Steven, BR and Adriane; and 11 grandchildren.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike