
MLB Power Rankings: Three powerhouses duke it out for No. 1
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adminNow that we’re two months into the 2025 MLB season — and past Memorial Day, when baseball fans traditionally say you can finally check the standings — the top of our rankings have started to become more consistent.
Each week, you can find the usual powerhouses atop our list — but what does change from week to week is which one sits at No. 1, with the Philadelphia Phillies taking that honor for the first time this season in Week 9. They are the fifth team to take the top spot so far in 2025, despite the preseason expectation that the Los Angeles Dodgers would rule that spot for the majority of the season.
How does the rest of the top five play out? And where do other clubs stand in our final May edition?
Our expert panel has ranked every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts Buster Olney, Jesse Rogers and Alden Gonzalez to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
1. Philadelphia Phillies
Record: 35-19
Previous ranking: 3
The Phillies are who we thought they were coming into the season, led by their starting pitching. As the Dodgers continue to try to find enough pitching until their stars are activated off the injured list around the All-Star break, a case can be made for the Phillies as the best team in the majors because of their rotation. Since April 26, the Phillies are 21-6 and getting contributions from all over their staff. Zack Wheeler has a 1.08 ERA in his past five starts, as he, Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes vie for the title of best pitcher on the planet. — Olney
Record: 37-20
Previous ranking: 1
Tarik Skubal put together a masterpiece Sunday, shutting out the Guardians with a two-hit, no-walk, 13-strikeout performance that went down as one of the best pitched games in franchise history. Skubal won the American League’s Cy Young Award unanimously last year, and he looks just as dominant — if not more so — this year. But we knew Skubal was good. And this Tigers season has also been defined by what we didn’t know. Namely, that Spencer Torkelson (.864 OPS, 13 home runs) and Javier Baez (.276/.313/.456 slash line while transitioning to center field) would be integral parts to a championship contender. — Gonzalez
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
Record: 34-22
Previous ranking: 2
Three key members of their starting rotation reside on the injured list, as do five (five!) high-leverage relievers. Shohei Ohtani, meanwhile, is navigating through his pitching progression methodically. The Dodgers keep winning nonetheless — largely because their offense is just that deep. Ohtani has been every bit as impactful as he was while becoming the first full-time designated hitter to win MVP last year; Freddie Freeman is off to one of the best starts of his illustrious career, and the likes of Teoscar Hernandez, Will Smith, Andy Pages and Hyeseong Kim have been major contributors. Only the Yankees boast a higher OPS than the Dodgers. Only the Cubs have scored more runs. — Gonzalez
Record: 35-20
Previous ranking: 4
Call them the Plan B Guys — the group of players the Yankees pivoted to after Juan Soto took the Mets’ $765 million-plus-perks offer over the Yankees’ $760 million deal. Max Fried, signed to a record-setting $218 million contract, is in the conversation for AL Cy Young. Paul Goldschmidt has had an excellent bounce-back season. Cody Bellinger has played effectively, both defensively and offensively. The Yankees aren’t as dynamic without Soto, but they might have more depth — and are better suited for the postseason. — Olney
Record: 35-21
Previous ranking: 6
A relentless offense has defined the Cubs’ first two months as the team has averaged six runs. That would be the most over the course of a season since the 2007 Yankees. Chicago ranks as a top-three team in almost every offensive category, including batting average, OBP, slugging, triples, doubles and stolen bases. In fact, the Cubs’ stolen-base percentage is also the best in baseball. They’ve been great at both jumping on opponents and coming from behind — and it has led to one of the best records in the game as May comes to a close. — Rogers
Record: 34-22
Previous ranking: 5
The Mets’ defining characteristic is their pitching, but Juan Soto’s slow start is getting the most attention. With Soto drawing enormous scrutiny — especially in New York — others in the organization are working to provide some layer of protection for him. On Saturday, manager Carlos Mendoza seemingly hijacked an in-game interview to cover for the fact that Soto made it only a third of the way up the first-base line before peeling off to the dugout. Then on Sunday, de facto captain Francisco Lindor told ESPN before the game that he wanted to talk about Soto when he wore the microphone in-game for “Sunday Night Baseball.” And Lindor did just that, lauding his new teammate. — Olney
Record: 31-23
Previous ranking: 7
The Padres will face the Dodgers for the first time in a week and a half, when they host them for what should be a captivating series at Petco Park. In the meantime, they’ve continually applied pressure to the team many expected to run away with the National League West. They’ve done so mostly behind their best players. Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill have combined to slash .301/.363/.501. Robert Suarez has looked like one of the best closers in baseball, leading the NL with 17 saves. In the rotation, Nick Pivetta and Michael King dominated in April, Dylan Cease started to round into form in May and Yu Darvish is expected back in June. — Gonzalez
Record: 30-24
Previous ranking: 8
Seattle has been defined by an unexpectedly productive offense led by early MVP candidate Cal Raleigh and out-of-nowhere thumper Jorge Polanco. Polanco’s work at home is particularly impressive. T-Mobile Park has been known as a tough hitters’ park in recent years — but that has not been the case for Polanco. He has an OPS over 1.000, including eight home runs in only 19 games. Raleigh also has eight home runs at home. Manager Dan Wilson has pushed the right buttons, providing confidence for a group of hitters who seemingly lacked it when performing at home in previous years. — Rogers
Record: 31-25
Previous ranking: 9
The first iteration of Buster Posey’s Giants has proved to be a persevering bunch, already stringing together 14 come-from-behind wins. And their bullpen has sure helped that cause. Giants relievers boast the lowest ERA in the majors. A handful of rough outings have inflated Ryan Walker‘s ERA, forcing him out as closer. But the bridge to him had been absolutely dominant. Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers, Erik Miller and Randy Rodriguez have combined for a 1.28 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP in 95 appearances. Opposing hitters are slashing just .167/.237/219 against them. — Gonzalez
Record: 32-24
Previous ranking: 12
Resiliency might be the defining character trait of the Cardinals this season, as they were behind the eight ball from the get-go when St. Louis said it might be taking a step back this season to reassess and reimagine the team. Early on, it looked as if the standings would dictate as much — St. Louis finished April three games under .500 and in fourth place in the division. But the veterans seemingly wouldn’t give in to this narrative and the Cardinals began a climb up the standings highlighted by a nine-game win streak in May. It vaulted them into the playoff race. — Rogers
Record: 30-25
Previous ranking: 10
The 2025 Twins have been defined by two distinctly different chapters. They sat at just 13-18 at the end of April, but since then they’ve won 17 of 24 games to surge back into the playoff mix in a wide-open American League. Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa are back and healthy but have yet to fully click offensively. In the meantime, the Twins’ pitching staff has carried the team of late, boasting the third-lowest ERA in the majors since the start of May. Jhoan Duran is dominating the ninth inning, and Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Bailey Ober and Pablo Lopez are holding it down in the rotation. — Gonzalez
Record: 30-25
Previous ranking: 15
While mainstays such as Jose Altuve, Framber Valdez and Yordan Alvarez (though injured) are still leading the way in Houston, new faces have emerged to keep the Astros in the hunt. At the top of the rotation is Hunter Brown, who gives up only 5.8 hits per nine innings pitched and has a 2.00 ERA and 0.916 WHIP over the first two months. At the plate, newcomer Isaac Paredes has proved that his pull-side tendencies work well at Daikin Park, where he has hit seven of his team-leading 11 home runs. — Rogers
Record: 27-29
Previous ranking: 11
The D-backs can hit, but (somewhat surprisingly) they’ve really struggled on the mound. Their pitchers rank 24th in ERA, ahead of only the Rockies, Orioles, A’s, Marlins, Nationals and Angels — the types of teams with which they really don’t want to keep company. Most surprising of all is that their rotation — a deep and talented group that was further bolstered by the surprise signing of Corbin Burnes this offseason — ranks 24th in ERA. Zac Gallen is off to a brutal start, posting a 5.54 ERA in his first 66⅔ innings. And Eduardo Rodriguez had a 7.05 ERA through his first nine starts before going down because of shoulder inflammation. — Gonzalez
Record: 30-25
Previous ranking: 18
In recent years, the Guardians continually remained competitive despite a tight budget because of their ability to develop starting pitching. But that hasn’t necessarily been the case lately. Guardians starters rank 23rd in ERA this season, on pace to finish in the bottom 10 for the third time in the past five years. They also have the sport’s highest walk rate. Ben Lively, the team’s Opening Day starter, recently underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery. And the homegrown trio of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen hasn’t been as impactful as many would have hoped. — Gonzalez
Record: 25-28
Previous ranking: 14
As they continue to dig themselves out of that season-opening streak of seven straight losses, the Braves have made major changes to their roster. It’s pretty rare that a pennant-contending team makes changes at shortstop and catcher during a season, but that’s what they’ve done, installing Nick Allen at short and Drake Baldwin as part of their catching platoon. Now Atlanta needs more from the players signed to long-term deals, including Austin Riley, Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider. — Olney
Record: 28-27
Previous ranking: 22
The AL is a mud bog, with 11 teams carrying at least a 20% chance of reaching the playoffs (according to FanGraphs), meaning that a lot of clubs are still largely undefined. Count the Rays among those — we won’t really know what they’re capable of until they get ace Shane McClanahan back, perhaps sometime in July or August. Jonathan Aranda is hitting over .300 and might be a leading candidate to represent Tampa Bay at the All-Star Game. — Olney
Record: 30-27
Previous ranking: 13
The Royals have stayed in the mix despite struggling to do what virtually every contender must in this era: hit the ball over the fence. Royals hitters have accumulated only 30 home runs this season, worst in the majors. Bobby Witt Jr. has totaled only five, but he has also slashed .290/.349/.480 while stealing 20 bases and accumulating a major league-leading 21 doubles. He is not the problem; the problem is that Royals outfielders have totaled only seven home runs. And that outside of Vinnie Pasquantino, no individual Royals hitter has produced even six. Only five teams have a lower slugging percentage than the Royals. — Gonzalez
Record: 27-31
Previous ranking: 16
Fair or not, the Rafael Devers situation is defining Boston’s season so far. The highest-paid player in the organization’s history, moved to designated hitter against his will, has declined to take ground balls and build more flexibility into the roster. Instead, everyone else is expected to move — more specifically, rookie Kristian Campbell, who is learning to play a corner infield position on the fly and taking grounders before games. Devers, meanwhile, has played a corner spot his whole career. Is it shocking that Campbell might be overwhelmed as he tries to hit as a rookie? He’s batting .120 in May. — Olney
Record: 28-29
Previous ranking: 19
Cincinnati has been led by starting pitching that has kept the team afloat in the NL Central and wild-card race. The Reds’ rotation ranks in the top half of the NL in ERA and has both power and finesse throughout. Hunter Greene is the unquestioned ace of the staff, but his supporting cast has been pretty good. Andrew Abbott is sneakily good, though he’s limited to facing hitters only two times through the order. Nick Lodolo and Nick Martinez both have an ERA under 3.50, and newcomer Brady Singer had one really bad outing but has kept the Reds in games more often than not. So has the whole rotation, really. — Rogers
Record: 29-28
Previous ranking: 20
Pitching injuries and an underachieving offense have defined the Brewers so far. After showing some pop during spring training — OK, it is spring training, after all — they’ve done anything but at the plate. The team ranks in the bottom five in home runs and has been shut out in back-to-back games three different times in May. Struggling individuals include catcher William Contreras, who finished fifth in MVP voting last season. He has only five home runs and a .695 OPS. But Milwaukee still runs well, and that has helped the team stay afloat in the wild-card race. — Rogers
Record: 27-30
Previous ranking: 17
Losing Corey Seager definitely hurt, but even with that, Texas is performing a lot like last year at the plate — and it already has cost the team a hitting coach. The Rangers rank 27th in OPS, which is actually worse than their 2024 mark (23rd). The list of underperformers is lengthy: Marcus Semien, Jake Burger and Adolis Garcia come to mind while others, such as Wyatt Langford, have been OK — but none has an OPS over .800. The return of Seager this week could be monumental for the Rangers moving forward. — Rogers
Record: 27-28
Previous ranking: 21
Even with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. locked down with a long-term deal worth $500 million, the Jays’ offense has been shockingly poor, ranking in the bottom third of the big leagues in runs and home runs. In his walk year, Bo Bichette has an on-base percentage a little over .300 and a slugging percentage a little under .400. If he continues to slog along in this way, the Jays’ best option in the offseason might be to extend him a qualifying offer, which will probably be in the range of $21 million, creating the possibility he could be back for 2026. — Olney
Record: 25-30
Previous ranking: 24
Defining these Angels is a bit difficult: They’ve had moments when they’ve hit and pitched well but always seem to take a step backward after taking one forward. Ultimately, they’ve hung around thanks to a couple of streaks, most notably a recent eight-game winning streak that included an impressive sweep of the Dodgers during rivalry weekend. Who the Angles are might not yet be determined, but so far there has been a nice resiliency to Ron Washington’s squad. His leadership in his second year as manager has proved to be a bit more steadying. — Rogers
Record: 25-30
Previous ranking: 25
With this rebuilding franchise a member of one of MLB’s toughest divisions, the Nationals’ season will be judged on the evolution of their youngest big leaguers — and, so far, they’ve had a mixed bag of performances. James Wood is hitting well with a .950 OPS, and MacKenzie Gore has 93 strikeouts in 62⅓ innings. But Dylan Crews has struggled overall, hitting under .200, and Mitchell Parker has given up four earned runs or more in five of his past six starts. — Olney
Record: 23-33
Previous ranking: 23
Only the Orioles have a worse home ERA than the Athletics, who vowed to make Sutter Health Park in Sacramento an advantage for them. It has been anything but as the A’s are 9-19 there, serving up 50 home runs while hitting only 31. Less than a month ago, their outlook was bright thanks in part to a solid road record that had them in both the division and wild-card hunt, but their inability to pitch well at home has become their Achilles’ heel. To wit: Not one even semi-regular starter has a home ERA under 5.50. — Rogers
Record: 22-32
Previous ranking: 26
Miami is not contending, so this must be a year of small successes, like the one the Marlins have experienced with outfielder Kyle Stowers. Acquired in a trade with Baltimore last summer, Stowers has become perhaps the front-runner to be their All-Star representative this year. The Orioles’ second-round pick in 2019, Stowers is hitting .291 — and .375 against left-handed pitching — with a .362 on-base percentage and 10 homers. He is exactly what the Orioles thought they were getting when they signed Tyler O’Neill to a $49.5 million contract this past offseason. — Olney
Record: 19-36
Previous ranking: 27
Baltimore is baseball’s most disappointing team of 2025, and evaluators with other teams say that the Orioles’ pitching problems might continue into next year and beyond. Zach Eflin has been good for them when healthy — save for a mid-May outing in which he gave up four homers and eight runs against the Nationals — and would probably fetch a decent trade return. But it’ll be interesting to see if Baltimore tries to sign Eflin to an extension, at a time when it has to rebuild its pitching. — Olney
Record: 21-36
Previous ranking: 28
His strikeout totals aren’t as eye-popping as they were last season, but nonetheless, Paul Skenes is still the must-watch attraction of the Pirates. He has made every turn in the rotation, has a masterful complete-game loss against the Phillies and gives up only 6.2 hits per nine innings pitched. Skenes seems to be finding his stride as he has gone at least six innings in each of his past four starts, giving up only one run in each of the past three. And remember, he has to be near perfect as Pittsburgh is averaging an MLB-worst three runs per game. Skenes is the sole hope for a Pirates turnaround — though it won’t come this season. — Rogers
Record: 18-38
Previous ranking: 29
The White Sox are still really bad, on pace to finish with the AL’s worst record for the second straight year. And their most valuable trade option, Luis Robert Jr., is off to a dreadful start, making it unlikely that he’ll bring back anything close to the type of return they were hoping for. But one major bright spot has emerged of late: Miguel Vargas, acquired from the Dodgers in last summer’s Michael Kopech trade, has finally gotten going. The 25-year-old infielder was slashing just .139/.236/.203 on April 21. Since then, it’s .316/.382/.607. — Gonzalez
Record: 9-47
Previous ranking: 30
The 2024 White Sox — you know, the team that lost a modern-day record 121 times — won their 10th game of the season on May 9. It’s May 29 now, and the 2025 Rockies still haven’t won their 10th game. Through their first 56 games, the Rockies sit at 9-47, six games worse than the 2024 White Sox were at that point in their season. That’s how bad the Rockies have been. Their run-differential is a whopping minus-175, and no other team is even at minus-100 at this point. Their offense ranks 29th in OPS, 29th in strikeout rate and 30th in runs per game. Their pitching staff has the worst ERA and the second-worst strikeout-to-walk ratio. — Gonzalez
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Sports
How Freddie Freeman’s World Series grand slam changed him — and Dodgers fans — forever
Published
4 hours agoon
May 31, 2025By
admin
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Alden GonzalezMay 31, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the L.A. Rams for ESPN from 2016 to 2018 and the L.A. Angels for MLB.com from 2012 to 2016.
LOS ANGELES — The image of a triumphant Freddie Freeman from the night of Oct. 25, 2024 — midstroll, face stoic, right hand pointed upward — has been tattooed on body parts all over L.A. County. Freeman himself has signed four of them, three on shins and one on an arm. He used to go practically anywhere in Southern California without getting recognized, even in the areas where he grew up. Now that never happens. Fans approach him everywhere, many recounting precisely where they were when he hit the walk-off grand slam in Game 1 of the World Series that helped propel the Los Angeles Dodgers to a championship. Often they just say, Thank you.
“I’m happy about it,” Freeman said. “It means something good happened, right? You don’t try and hope for that moment to happen; it just kind of comes to you, and you hope that you’re ready for the moment. There’s so many times when I failed, and no one really remembers the failures.”
Freeman’s home run, the first of four in a World Series that saw him produce a 1.364 OPS and win MVP honors, has been depicted on countless bobbleheads, T-shirts and paintings. It has aired on Dodger Stadium’s videoboard before every home game and might continue being played there forever, much like Kirk Gibson’s heroics from 36 years earlier.
Freeman is hitting better than he ever has in his age-35 season, even while battling the same ankle injury that plagued him in October. Somehow, he has been more productive in his 30s than he was in his 20s. Reaching 3,000 hits, an almost unimaginable feat during such a pitcher-dominant era, remains a distinct possibility. The Hall of Fame is a near certainty. But one swing on one night will in some ways outshine anything Freeman ever accomplishes, a reality emphasized by the Yankees’ return to Dodger Stadium this weekend.
“And that’s OK,” Freeman said. “Something great happened for us to win a World Series, and I loved every second of it.”
Freeman is as stringent about his routine as any athlete, but he’s also sentimental. And while several of his teammates spoke earlier this year about the importance of moving on in hopes of avoiding a letdown, Freeman wondered why it couldn’t be both. In his mind, one can savor an accomplishment while preparing for another. He found himself wanting to marinate in that moment, largely because he has played long enough to appreciate its singularity.
One interaction with a fan, lasting all of three minutes, reinforced that.
Freeman was among a group of Dodgers players at a Jan. 31 luncheon for those impacted by the L.A. wildfires; it was part of the team’s annual community tour. There, a man recounted how he gave up drinking on the night of Freeman’s home run. Freeman can recall every detail from that conversation. The fan sat in the right-field section and vowed to remain sober in order to be more present for his two sons. Freeman’s home run ball sailed over their heads, and all his sons wanted to do was play baseball the next morning. Typically, the man told Freeman, he’d be too hungover to join them. This time he had the energy to play all day. The fan said he hadn’t touched alcohol since.
“Just chills,” Freeman said while relaying that story. “And you think about how not just baseball but sports can impact people’s lives in such a positive way that to be able to be part of something like that is a pretty special thing. I love this game. This game helped me get through hard times when I lost my mom and stuff like that; me and my dad would be out here playing baseball, doing things.
“It helps. And when you come full circle 25 years later, when you’re 35 and you create a moment for someone — that’s what this is all about for me. I love winning and championships, but to know that I was able to impact someone’s life in such a positive way — I still don’t know if I can grasp it.”
When Freeman crossed home plate, the first thing he did was dart toward his father, Fred, and high-five him through the netting behind home plate. Freeman’s mother died due to melanoma when he was 10. But Fred had also lost his wife. His entire life was turned upside down. Still, he continued to show up for his children. Baseball became their therapy. That fan’s story made Freeman think about how those two boys could be impacted by their dad showing up for them, too, and how one moment can have such a far-reaching impact.
“Sports is cool, man,” Freeman said, shaking his head. “Like, it can do so many good things for so many people.”
Freeman had struggled during the first three weeks of last postseason while playing through the right ankle injury he suffered on Sept. 26, the night the Dodgers clinched a first-round bye, and the rib injury he sustained a week later. Near the end of the National League Championship Series, he struggled to hold his front side in the batter’s box. Any attempt to put force on the ground caused Freeman’s foot to roll over. As it turned out, a Game 5 loss to the New York Mets was a godsend.
MLB had implemented a tweak in its postseason schedule that allowed the World Series to begin early if both leagues concluded their championship series in five games or fewer. The Yankees complied, dispatching the Cleveland Guardians in Game 5. But the Dodgers lost to the Mets, extending the series to a sixth game.
Said Freeman: “It changed everything for me.”
Instead of getting only three days off before the World Series, Freeman sat for Game 6, watched the Dodgers bullpen their way to a pennant, and by the time the Yankees arrived at Dodger Stadium for Game 1, he had received six full days of rest. He was suddenly a more complete version of himself, mobile enough to leg out a first-inning triple and flexible enough to turn on Nestor Cortes‘ 10th-inning fastball, sending it 413 feet to deliver one of the most iconic moments in postseason history. The Dodgers won the series in five.
“So many little things,” Freeman said, “and it could’ve gone so many different ways.”
Freeman felt good enough after the World Series to assume rest alone would heal his ankle. Four weeks later, he could barely walk. Imaging revealed he had torn four ligaments. Surgery was required. Freeman spent the next four months rehabbing methodically, then slipped in his shower on March 30, reaggravating his ankle and prompting a short stint on the injured list.
In his first 11 games back, Freeman batted just .250. His hips were opening too early and his swing wasn’t staying in the strike zone long enough, the continuation of a mechanical issue he spent most of the previous year working through. But a sixth-inning, opposite-field single against Paul Skenes on April 25 unlocked a feeling Freeman had been searching for. Since then, he is slashing .412/.474/.647 in 31 games. His .368 batting average and 1.065 OPS this season rank higher than everyone not named Aaron Judge. His 186 weighted runs created plus is tied for his career best, set during the COVID-19-shortened season, when he was named NL MVP.
A Dodgers team that was expected by many to challenge the regular-season wins record currently has 14 pitchers on the injured list and has had to scrap just to maintain a slight edge over the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants in the NL West, while sitting at 35-22. Through that, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts believes Freeman has unlocked another level of intensity.
“He’s dialed in,” Roberts said. “It’s not as lax intensity as he typically is; it’s more of an edgy intensity.”
Daily treatment on Freeman’s right ankle has been reduced from as many as four hours last October to as little as 40 minutes. It feels significantly better, but trainers have told him it won’t be fully right until some time around the All-Star break. Freeman still wears heel lifts in his cleats to alleviate some of the discomfort. His first few steps in the morning still come with agonizing pain. The Dodgers won’t let him steal bases, even when the time is on his side, a restriction that gnaws at him. But the production continues.
Freeman is on pace for 7.1 FanGraphs wins above replacement this season, which would represent the second-highest total of his career. If he gets there, he’ll rank seventh among first basemen in fWAR compiled between ages 31 and 35, behind only Roger Connor, Willie Stargell, Bill Terry, Mark McGwire, Stan Musial and Lou Gehrig. If he accumulates just 75 more hits, a near certainty if he avoids prolonged injury, he will have compiled more than 2,400 by season’s end, giving him a fighting chance at 3,000 in the back half of his 30s.
In his 20s, Freeman slashed .293/.379/.504. In his 30s, he has upped that to .317/.405/.533. These days, Freeman has an added incentive to remain productive:
He wants all those tattoos of his home run to hold up.
“I need to stay good,” Freeman said, “so that hopefully they still appreciate those in 30 years.”
Sports
CFP format debate: Would SEC change cost bids? Does the 11+5 make the most sense?
Published
7 hours agoon
May 31, 2025By
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Bill ConnellyMay 31, 2025, 07:20 AM ET
Close- Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
Leave it to college football to take the silliest, most circuitous possible route to the easiest, most logical answer.
Though nothing’s official and things could take further silly turns, a read of recent tea leaves gives the impression that those in charge of how the College Football Playoff will look in 2026 and beyond are homing in on a straightforward, 16-team tournament with five guaranteed spots for conference champions and 11 at-large bids. After months of debates about different bracket structures and conferences getting multiple automatic bids, the conversation seems to have returned to a clean and easy bracket.
We’re going to pretend this means people are listening to me. When I wrote about this debate in March, I recommended skipping expansion to 14 teams and moving to 16, and I mocked the idea of multiple autobids. Granted, I also recommended putting six conference champions in the field and putting quarterfinal games in home stadiums, not just first-round games. I won’t hold my breath on those ideas (especially the former), but that’s still a pretty good batting average.
After a week of posturing from power conference leaders, let’s keep the conversation going. Here are some thoughts about what we’ve learned this week and the debates still to come
Moving to nine conference games might cost the SEC one to two playoff teams per year
SEC commissioner Greg Sankey talked a lot this week. He went on “The Paul Finebaum Show.” He talked about a scheduling partnership with the Big Ten. He increased the fines for field rushing. He talked about which playoff games should or will be on home campuses. He talked about how long this formatting process takes. He scoffed at being told to serve the good of the game. And he spent a long time telling everyone how hard the SEC’s schedules are:
On Thursday afternoon, the SEC provided members of the media with a six-page packet that included color-coded charts using multiple metrics to illustrate the league’s dominant schedule strength. Sankey said the task for determining the CFP’s strength of schedule component is striking a balance “between human and machine,” referring to the old BCS computer formula. … [The packet] included ESPN’s Strength of Record, Bill Connelly’s SP+, Kenneth Massey’s metric, ESPN’s Football Power Index and ESPN’s Strength of Schedule metric.
Sankey seemed to have two primary goals for bringing up strength of schedule. For starters, it seemed like he wanted to remind everyone that Alabama and its 9-3 record didn’t get into last year’s 12-team CFP despite strength-of-schedule numbers quite a bit stronger than those of higher ranked teams such as SMU (which had gone 11-2), Boise State (12-1) and Indiana (11-1). He said that decision left him with critical questions about the committee and its process.
“I do think there’s a need for change,” Sankey said of the ranking protocol Thursday at the conclusion of his league’s spring meetings. “… How do you make those decisions? It’s hard, and we trust the committee to do that, and I respect the people in there, so this isn’t a criticism of the people. This is wanting to understand the decisions. We have to have better clarity on the criteria that inform those decisions.”
Now, all the strength-of-schedule advantages in the world didn’t stop Alabama from losing to 6-6 Vanderbilt and 6-6 Oklahoma. In the latter game, Alabama couldn’t have looked less playoff-worthy, losing 24-3 to the Sooners. Maybe the Tide would have gotten in with a formula approach, but they showed no indication that they could make a playoff run at the end of the season. Plus, we know that the playoff committee took Alabama’s strength of schedule into account because it ranked the Tide ahead of 11-2 Arizona State, 10-2 Miami and 10-2 BYU, among others, despite how they looked at the end of the regular season. If Bama had lost to only one of Vandy or Oklahoma, the Tide would have almost certainly been in the field of 12. And they’d have definitely been in a field of 16 regardless, along with two other three-loss SEC teams (Ole Miss and South Carolina).
4:23
Greg Sankey discusses the hottest topics from the SEC spring meetings
Commissioner Sankey joins The Paul Finebaum Show to detail the conversations around possible CFP changes and conference schedules going forward.
Also, Sankey didn’t mention that the committee placed a one-loss Alabama team ahead of an unbeaten Florida State team in the CFP rankings just one year earlier. If we want to talk about a formula, let’s talk about a formula. But the SEC has been treated with extreme kindness by the committee on average.
(For the record, I’m all for a formula-based rankings system. I put out a BCS-like formula ranking in the home stretch of each season, and there’s value in the approach. People convinced themselves that they hated the BCS formula, but I will forever insist that the main reason they hated the formula wasn’t the formula — it was that the BCS selected only two teams to play for the title. With a lot more teams to choose now, a formula approach would work quite well.)
Beyond the attempts to work the referees, however, Sankey also discussed schedule strength as it pertained to the ongoing conversation about the length of the SEC’s conference schedules. The SEC plays eight-game conference schedules, while the other primary power conference, the Big Ten, plays nine-game schedules. Despite this difference, the metrics cited by the SEC above (including, yes, my SP+ rankings) are a pretty stark reminder that, between the SEC typically having far fewer easy matchups than the Big Ten and a solid rotation of annual out-of-conference rivalry games played by SEC teams against ACC programs — Florida against Florida State, South Carolina against Clemson, etc. — the average SEC schedule is already a decent amount tougher than the average Big Ten schedule. Using my recent post-spring SP+ projections as a guide, SEC teams project to have 13 of the 15 hardest schedules in the country despite eight-game conference slates.
Since Sankey serves at the discretion of SEC presidents and, to a degree, athletic directors, it made sense that Sankey wanted to push back on the mounting pressure to move to nine games.
“If we’re not confident that the decision-making about who gets in and why and what are the metrics around it, it’s going to be really hard for some of my colleagues to get to the nine games,” Texas A&M athletics director Trev Alberts said this week.
Why make your schedules harder if it will cost your conference playoff bids, right?
There are plenty of valid reasons for moving to nine games regardless of what it does to playoff status. For starters, it will likely increase the value of the SEC’s media rights contract, giving the league even more of a war chest. It would make teams’ home schedules even more exciting and, potentially, expensive. And most importantly, it would make the 16-team conference feel like an actual conference: With a nine-game schedule, you can play every team twice in four years. With eight-game schedules, those rotations take a lot longer. (Yes, this is being written by a Mizzou guy who’s bitter that LSU fans, with their tailgating prowess, have had a reason to come to Columbia only once in Mizzou’s 13 SEC seasons.)
Because we’re using numbers to prove that SEC schedules are already difficult, let’s use numbers to ask a different question: How much more difficult would nine-game SEC schedules be?
To answer this question, I did what I do: I ran a simulation. I created four years’ worth of nine-game SEC schedules based around the super-clean, super-easy idea of permanent conference rivalries: You assign every team three permanent, annual opponents, and they play six other opponents home-and-away over two years, then the other six over the next two. Voila, you’ve visited every stadium in your conference and hosted every conference mate at least once every four years. I’ve been floored that other huge conferences such as the Big Ten and Big 12 haven’t leaned further into the permanent rivals concept — the 16-team Big 12 isn’t making Farmageddon (Kansas State-Iowa State) an annual game, and the 18-team Big Ten didn’t set up annual games between all of its four new Western teams. Regardless, I set up permanent rivals for each SEC team.
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Alabama: Auburn, LSU, Tennessee
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Arkansas: Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M
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Auburn: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi State
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Florida: Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina
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Georgia: Auburn, Florida, South Carolina
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Kentucky: Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
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LSU: Alabama, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
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Mississippi State: Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss
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Missouri: Arkansas, Oklahoma, South Carolina
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Oklahoma: Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M
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Ole Miss: LSU, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
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South Carolina: Florida, Georgia, Missouri
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Tennessee: Alabama, Kentucky, Vanderbilt
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Texas: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
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Texas A&M: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas
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Vanderbilt: Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tennessee
These pairings preserve all but one of the series that have been played 90-plus times (Alabama-Mississippi State is the one I couldn’t squeeze in, in part because MSU has four such series). They reconnect former Big 8, Big 12 and/or SWC rivalries such as Oklahoma-Missouri and Texas-Arkansas, but they don’t go too far in that regard — at this point, Missouri has played South Carolina as conference mates as many times as Texas A&M (13) and more than Texas (nine), and the teams from the two Columbias have played some strange and memorable battles already.
There’s obviously a pretty big difference in quality between, say, Auburn’s or LSU’s annual opponents versus that of Kentucky or Ole Miss. But remember: Six of a team’s nine conference games come from the rest of the pool. Over a four-year rotation, Auburn’s schedules are only a smidgen harder than Ole Miss’ on average.
A full nine-game Auburn schedule might look like this: Alabama, at Georgia, Mississippi State, at Oklahoma, South Carolina, at Ole Miss, Tennessee, at Vanderbilt, Texas A&M. Meanwhile, an Ole Miss schedule might look like this (common opponents in bold): at LSU, Vanderbilt, at Mississippi State, Arkansas, at Kentucky, Auburn, at Missouri, Georgia, at Oklahoma. One plays Alabama, the other plays LSU. One plays Kentucky, the other plays South Carolina. Over time, the schedule strengths will be pretty close.
Using existing nonconference games as much as possible (with a few necessary tweaks), here’s what the 2026 schedule might look like with nine total conference games and a 3+6 approach.
Because you’ve got some teams now playing five conference road games, it will be difficult to avoid handing teams some pretty rough patches — Alabama and Missouri playing four road games in five weeks late in the season, for example, or Kentucky starting with back-to-back conference road games. But it’s hard not to notice how every week is pretty loaded. Some hypothetical 2026 headliners:
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Week 1: Georgia at Ole Miss, Clemson at LSU, Miami at South Carolina, Texas A&M at Tennessee
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Week 2: Ohio State at Texas, Oklahoma at Michigan, Missouri at Kansas, Kentucky at LSU
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Week 3: Florida State at Alabama, Oklahoma at Texas A&M, South Carolina at Auburn, Florida at Kentucky
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Week 4: Tennessee at Georgia, Alabama at Florida, Arkansas vs. Texas A&M, LSU at South Carolina, Illinois at Missouri*
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Week 5: Georgia at Alabama, Auburn at Oklahoma, Florida at Texas, Texas A&M at South Carolina, Ole Miss at Missouri
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Week 6: Oklahoma vs. Texas, Tennessee at Auburn, Missouri at Georgia, South Carolina at Florida
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Week 7: Tennessee at Alabama, LSU at Texas, Auburn at Ole Miss, Oklahoma at Arkansas, Georgia at South Carolina
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Week 8: Arkansas at Ole Miss, Missouri at South Carolina, Oklahoma at Kentucky
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Week 9: Alabama at Texas, Georgia vs. Florida, Ole Miss at LSU, Missouri at Texas A&M
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Week 10: Alabama at LSU, Texas A&M at Auburn, Ole Miss at Oklahoma, Texas at Missouri
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Week 11: Auburn at Georgia, Texas at Arkansas, Florida at Texas A&M, Missouri at Tennessee
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Week 12: LSU at Florida, Georgia at Texas A&M, Missouri at Oklahoma, Alabama at South Carolina
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Week 13: The typical loaded rivalry week
(* Missouri is somehow scheduled to play at Illinois and Kansas in 2026, but because the Tigers drew a slate with five conference road games, I flipped the Illinois game out of pure convenience.)
Obviously, the real-life 2026 SEC slate will also feature a lot of these big-time games, but aside from a relatively paltry Week 8, every week has some huge, TV-friendly brand matchups. That’s an utterly loaded schedule.
It’s also a schedule that will, as athletic directors will surely notice, hand quite a few losses to good teams.
1:29
Paul Finebaum supports CFP moving to straight seeding in 2025
Paul Finebaum is on board with the College Football Playoff shifting to a straight seeding model starting this season.
Though I shared hypothetical 2026 schedules above, I wanted to use SP+ projections to look at a full four-year rotation and compare what it would produce from a wins-and-losses standpoint to what the current eight-game slate produces.
For the league’s elite teams, moving to nine games won’t make much of a difference. For instance, with its current schedule, SP+ projects Georgia to win 9.8 games on average, with an 84.9% chance of going at least 9-3 (the hypothetical cutoff line for SEC teams hoping to get into the field). But with an abridged, three-game nonconference schedule — for the most part, I shrank nonconference schedules by getting rid of teams’ second games against Group of 5 teams and leaving one game against a power-conference opponent, one against a G5 team and one against an FCS team — Georgia averages 9.7 wins over four simulated seasons, with a 79.6% chance of reaching 9-3 or better on average. There’s a bit less margin for error, but well-projected teams like Georgia will be in good shape, regardless.
For the league’s light heavyweights, however, things get trickier. Florida has a 43.7% chance of finishing 9-3 or better in 2025, but in a nine-SEC-games universe, that drops to 19.6%. Four others see their odds drop by at least 10%, and current long shots like Vanderbilt (10.2% chance of going 9-3 in 2025) see their odds almost completely vanish (0.1%).
Overall, an average of 6.2 SEC teams are projected to go 9-3 or better in 2025. In a nine-game universe, that average shrinks to 4.7. With a 16-team field, you could say that the league would go from expecting around six teams in the field to having four or five teams safely in and campaigning for some 8-4 teams. Meanwhile, the league would also go from an average of 13.4 bowl-eligible teams to just 11.4.
That’s not an insignificant change. There would be plenty of cases where an 8-4 team with an off-the-charts strength of schedule would also be in good shape, but the professed risk is real. Of course, that’s what the money’s for. Media rights revenue would probably rise with expanded conference schedules; plus, the SEC and Big Ten are already guaranteed a huge portion of future CFP money anyway, so if they lose a playoff team here or there, it’s only going to hurt so much. Still, it’s easy to see why SEC ADs and coaches, whose jobs (and, potentially, bonuses) might be dictated by CFP bids, might balk at making tough schedules tougher.
The SEC and Big Ten championship games are being rendered moot
Among the main reasons the Big Ten, in particular, was interested in a selection process that featured multiple autobids (a rumored four each for the Big Ten and SEC) were that it would allow the two conferences — plus, perhaps, the ACC and Big 12, which were likely to receive two guaranteed bids each in such a structure — to redefine Championship Weekend.
The Big Ten and SEC championship games provided little-to-no positive impact for their winners last year: Oregon beat Penn State in the Big Ten championship to earn a first-round playoff bye but drew a smoking hot Ohio State in the quarterfinals and lost, and Georgia beat Texas in the SEC championship but lost quarterback Carson Beck to injury and handed Gunner Stockton his first career start in a quarterfinal loss to Notre Dame. (Plus, there were almost no negative repercussions for losing these games. Penn State and Texas each dropped only one spot in the rankings, and when SMU lost to lower-ranked Clemson in the ACC championship game, the Mustangs fell only from eighth to 10th and still got in.) With autobids, you could create multiple play-in games and produce a new spectacle while avoiding handing extra injury risk to just your top two teams.
There’s logic in that, even if I didn’t think it outweighed the negatives of multiple autobids — that they would make the entire playoff look like a Big Ten-SEC invitational, render large portions of the regular season moot (nonconference games would have almost no impact on playoff bids, and if a No. 6 seed with an 8-4 record can steal an 11-1 No. 3 seed’s playoff bid, then what’s the point of any of this?) and sure looked like they were primarily designed to rake in extra television dough.
Recent brainstorming sessions reportedly produced ideas such as giving SEC and Big Ten champions a double-bye in a 16-team bracket, with a first round consisting of play-in games for the lowest-ranked of the 16 teams, but that ruins the point of a clean, easy 16-team playoff. But with a plain 16-teamer, the impact of the SEC and Big Ten championships will be the difference between getting a No. 1 and No. 4 seed. That doesn’t counter the injury risk.
Conference championships are valuable enough that I doubt conferences will willingly get rid of them. But they feel like a hindrance to the current process, and I wonder how conference leaders will square that circle. I have one idea, though, and it comes from the 2020 COVID season.
When the Big Ten initially announced it was returning to action that fall, it created an abbreviated eight-game slate for each team, followed by a championship weekend that was intended to feature extra cross-division games for each team across the East and West divisions — No. 2 East vs. No. 2 West, No. 3 vs. No. 3, etc. Granted, things got messy because of positive COVID tests and resulting cancellations, but the Big Ten still featured four games on championship weekend.
Maybe there’s something to the idea of playing a full slate of championship week games, even if they aren’t playoff play-in games? Maybe that becomes part of the regular-season slate, in which, after everyone has played eight conference games, the standings determine who you play for the ninth?
Using last year’s eight-game SEC standings (and adjusting to avoid rematches where possible), we could have sent Texas and Georgia to play for the SEC title in Atlanta while also having 6-2 Tennessee (the No. 3 team in the standings) host 5-3 LSU, 5-3 Alabama host 5-3 Texas A&M, and so on. That would keep everyone from playing an extra game, and it would create a lot of de facto playoff play-in games even if they weren’t officially called that.
The brainstorming on this can continue for a while longer, but there’s no doubting that, though I think a clean 16-teamer is the most favorable conclusion for this long debate, there are still downsides and wrinkles to iron out.

Four-star tight end Mark Bowman announced his commitment to USC on Friday, picking the in-state Trojans over Georgia, Ole Miss, Oregon and Texas.
Bowman, No. 24 in the 2026 ESPN 300, is ESPN’s No. 3 tight end prospect in the 2026 class.
The 6-foot-5, 225-pound recruit from California’s Mater Dei High School was previously a top-ranked prospect in the 2027 cycle prior to his reclassification into the 2026 class earlier this year. He now joins five-star USC pledges Elbert Hill (No. 15) and Keenyi Pepe (No. 17) among top-100 recruits currently committed to the Trojans’ incoming recruiting class.
Following a series of spring unofficial visits, Bowman narrowed his list of finalists to seven programs earlier this month: Georgia, Miami, Ole Miss, Ohio State, Oregon, Texas and USC. Prior to his pledge, he was scheduled to take official visits with Miami, Texas, USC, Georgia and Oregon from May 30 to June 20.
Bowman caught 32 passes for 435 yards with eight touchdowns in his sophomore season at Mater Dei. He lands with USC as the program’s third-ranked commit in the program’s 2026 class, which ranks No. 1 nationally in ESPN’s latest team recruiting rankings for the cycle.
Alongside running back pledge Shahn Alston II (No. 94) and wide receiver Trent Mosley (No. 179), Bowman now leads the collection skill position talents USC is set to add in 2026 around four-star quarterback pledge Jonas Williams (No. 155), who flipped from Oregon in February.
Bowman’s pledge comes as a late-spring recruiting boost for the Trojans after four-star outside linebacker Xavier Griffin (No. 28 overall) pulled his pledge from the program earlier this month. Four-star cornerback R.J. Sermons, previously ranked as ESPN’s No. 28th-ranked prospect in 2026, reclassified into the 2025 cycle last week and will join USC this summer.
The Trojans enter the busiest stretch of the recruiting calendar next month with 13 ESPN 300 pledges. USC is set to host a key recruiting weekend starting June 6 with current commits Hill and Alston and four-star wide receiver Ethan Feaster (No. 23) and athlete Jalen Lott (No. 108) among the top prospects expected on campus.
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