The UK will be forced to agree this month to increase defence spending to 3.5% of national income within a decade as part of a NATO push to rearm and keep the US on side, Sky News understands.
The certainty of a major policy shift means there is bemusement in the Ministry of Defence (MoD) about why Sir Keir Starmer‘s government has tied itself in knots over whether to describe an earlier plan to hit 3% of GDP by the 2030s as an ambition or a commitment, when it is about to change.
The problem is seen as political, with the prime minister needing to balance warfare against welfare – more money for bombs and bullets or for winter fuel payments and childcare.
Image: Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer during a visit to a military base training Ukrainian troops in April. File pic: PA
Sir Keir is due to hold a discussion to decide on the defence spending target as early as today, it is understood.
As well as a rise in pure defence spending of 3.5% by 2035, he will also likely be forced to commit a further 1.5% of GDP to defence-related areas such as spy agencies and infrastructure. Militaries need roads, railway networks, and airports to deploy at speed.
This would bolster total broader defence spending to 5% – a target Mark Rutte, the head of NATO, wants all allies to sign up to at a major summit in the Netherlands later this month.
It is being referred to as the “Hague investment plan”.
Asked what would happen at the summit, a defence source said: “3.5% without a doubt.”
Yet the prime minister reiterated the 3% ambition when he published a major defence review on Monday that placed “NATO first” at the heart of UK defence policy.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:46
What’s in the UK Strategic Defence Review?
The defence source said: “How can you have a defence review that says NATO first” and then be among the last of the alliance’s 32 member states – along with countries like Spain – to back this new goal?
Unlike Madrid, London presents itself as the leading European nation in the alliance.
A British commander is always the deputy supreme allied commander in Europe – the second most senior operational military officer – under an American commander, while the UK’s nuclear weapons are committed to defending the whole of NATO.
Even Germany, which has a track record of weak defence spending despite boasting the largest economy, has recently signalled it plans to move investment towards the 5% level, while Canada, also previously feeble, is making similar noises.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:37
Is the UK battle ready?
The source signalled it was inconceivable the UK would not follow suit and said officials across Whitehall understand the spending target will rise to 3.5%.
The source said it would be met by 2035, so three years later than the timeline Mr Rutte has proposed.
Defence spending is currently at 2.3%.
A second defence source said the UK has to commit to this spending target, “or else we can no longer call ourselves a leader within NATO”.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Sky News’s political editor Beth Rigby challenged the prime minister on the discrepancy between his spending ambitions and those of his allies at a press conference on Monday.
Sir Keir seemed to hint change might be coming.
“Of course, there are discussions about what the contribution should be going into the NATO conference in two or three weeks’ time,” he said.
“But that conference is much more about what sort of NATO will be capable of being as effective in the future as it’s been in the last 80 years. It is a vital conversation that we do need to have, and we are right at the heart of that.”
Spotify
This content is provided by Spotify, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable Spotify cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to Spotify cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow Spotify cookies for this session only.
New Sky News podcast launches on 10 June – The Wargame simulates an attack by Russia to test UK defences
Mr Rutte, a former Dutch prime minister, said last week he assumes alliance members will agree to a broad defence spending target of 5% of gross domestic product during the summit in The Hague on 24 and 25 June.
NATO can only act if all member states agree.
“Let’s say that this 5%, but I will not say what is the individual breakup, but it will be considerably north of 3% when it comes to the hard spend [on defence], and it will be also a target on defence-related spending,” the secretary general said.
The call for more funding comes at a time when allies are warning of growing threats from Russia, Iran, and North Korea as well as challenges posed by China.
But it also comes as European member states need to make NATO membership seem like a good deal for Donald Trump.
The leaders of all allies will meet in The Hague for the two-day summit.
Spotify
This content is provided by Spotify, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable Spotify cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to Spotify cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow Spotify cookies for this session only.
The US president has repeatedly criticised other member states for failing to meet a current target of spending 2% of national income on defence and has warned the United States would not come to the aid of any nation that is falling short.
Since returning to the White House, he has called for European countries to allocate 5% of their GDP to defence. This is more than the 3.4% of GDP currently spent by the US.
Mr Rutte is being credited with squaring away a new deal with Mr Trump in a meeting that would see allies increase their defence spending in line with the US president’s wishes.
The NATO chief is due to visit London on Monday, it is understood.
Plaid Cymru have won the by-election in the Senedd seat of Caerphilly for the first time.
The Welsh nationalist party secured 15,960 votes – and candidate Lindsay Whittle cried as the result was announced.
Mr Whittle is 72 years old and had stood as a Plaidcandidate 13 times since 1983. He will now hold the seat until the Welsh Assembly’s national elections next year.
This by-election was widely regarded as a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, and the result marks a considerable blow for Nigel Farage.
His candidate Llyr Powell received 12,113 votes – denying a victory that would have strengthened claims that Reform can convert a large lead in opinion polls into election wins.
Nonetheless, the party’s performance is a marked improvement on 2021, when it received just 495 votes.
More than anything, the result is a humiliating and historic defeat for Labour, who had held Caerphilly at every Senedd election since it was created in 1999 – as well as the Westminster seat for over a century.
Its candidate Richard Tunnicliffe secured 3,713 votes and finished in third place, with Welsh Labour describing it as a “by-election in the toughest of circumstances, and in the midst of difficult headwinds nationally”.
Turnout overall stood at 50.43% – considerably higher than during the last ballot back in 2021.
Giving his acceptance speech after the result was confirmed, Mr Whittle began by paying tribute to Hefin David – who was Welsh Labour’s Member of the Senedd for Caerphilly until his death in August.
“He will be a hard act to follow,” Mr Whittle said. “I will never fill his shoes – but I promise you, I will walk the same path that he did.”
The Plaid politician described how he had been “absolutely heartened” by how many young people were involved in the by-election – and said the result sends a clear message.
He said: “Listen now Cardiff and listen Westminster – this is Caerphilly and Wales telling you we want a better deal for every corner of Wales. The big parties need to sit up and take notice.
“Wales, we are at the dawn of new leadership, we are at the dawn of a new beginning – and I look forward to playing my part for a new Wales, and in particular, for the people of the Caerphilly constituency. I thank you with all my heart.”
Mr Whittle quipped Plaid’s victory “was better than scoring the winning try for Wales in the Rugby World Cup”.
And looking ahead to the next year’s elections, he added: “[This] result shows what’s possible when people come together to back practical solutions and protect what matters most.
“We’ve beaten billionaire-backed Reform and, with the same determination, we can do it again in May 2026. Caerphilly has shown the way – now Wales must follow.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:49
How tactical voting helped Plaid Cymru
Speaking to Sky’s chief political correspondent Jon Craig just before the declaration, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth said: “There’s clearly a real significance to the result – we are seeing the disillusionment with Labour writ large. I’ve heard it on hundreds of doorsteps, we’ve seen it in opinion polls.”
He conceded there was tactical voting in this by-election – with Labour and Conservative supporters alike backing Lindsay Whittle to keep out Reform.
However, Mr ap Iorwerth added: “I’ve spoken to literally hundreds and hundreds of people who told me – time and time again – ‘I’ve been a Labour supporter all my life, and we’re backing you this time.’
“Not begrudgingly, but because they see that’s the direction we’re going in – not just in this by-election, but as a nation. I’m calling on people to get behind that positive change – not just today, but ahead of next May.”
First Minister Eluned Morgan congratulated Mr Whittle on his return to the Senedd and said: “Welsh Labour has heard the frustration on doorsteps in Caerphilly that the need to feel change in people’s lives has not been quick enough.
“We take our share of the responsibility for this result. We are listening, we are learning the lessons, and we will be come back stronger.”
The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats were among the parties who lost their deposits.
It was a welcome designed to catch our attention, for a visit that meant everything to the King.
The Swiss guard, standing to attention as the UK’s national anthem played out in the courtyard outside the Apostolic Palace.
Queen Camilla, wearing a distinctive black mantilla as a mark of respect to the Pope, as they made their way inside to meet Pope Leo XIV for the first time.
We know King Charles had built a relationship with Pope Francis before his death, now it appeared he was building a friendly rapport with his predecessor, as Pope Leo and the King happily talked away, both in English, meaning their conversation flowed more naturally.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:58
Will King and Pope distract from Andrew?
But while friendships between heads of state do matter diplomatically, this was also about making history.
Inside the Sistine Chapel, they prayed alongside each other. The first time a monarch and a pontiff have done that for 500 years, since Henry VIII broke away from the Catholic Church.
Image: Pope Leo greets King Charles and Queen Camilla at the Vatican. Pic: AP
Image: Pope Leo and Archbishop of York are joined by the King and Queen during an act of worship in the Sistine Chapel. Pic: Vatican Media/Reuters
With King Charles also the supreme governor of the Church of England, the optics could not have been more significant for relations between the two faiths.
If you wanted to see how much King Charles’s interfaith work is appreciated, it came at the basilica of St Paul’s outside the walls.
An abbey with long-held links with English monarchs, where he was given the ceremonial title of royal confrater, and a special seat was made just for him and his heirs.
Alongside religious matters, the two men talked publicly about their shared passion for the environment ahead of the UN’s climate conference COP, taking place in just over a week’s time.
With the King sent here on behalf of the government, and the foreign office emphasising how the Holy See is a vital global partner, we really saw brought into focus the soft power of the royals and the church, and how influential both can be.
Image: King Charles’s visit brings into focus the soft power of the royals. Pic PA
Image: King Charles at a garden reception at the Pontifical Beda College, where men prepare for the priesthood. Pic: PA
The interactions between the King and Pope showed a shared interest in a range of global issues.
But as the head of the Catholic Church for England and Wales, Cardinal Vincent Nichols pointed out to me, here are also two heads of state who sadly have issues around allegations of historical sexual abuse hanging over their institutions, and the decision on how to address that publicly.
There will be relief that there were no updates on the Prince Andrew problem today.
But despite Andrew vehemently denying that he has done anything wrong, revelations have kept coming.
And that is where the jeopardy lies for the royal family as they try to draw our attention back to important moments like this.
In 1645, the stronghold of Caerphilly’s famous medieval castle was besieged and captured by the forces of Oliver Cromwell.
And as the polls closed at 10pm after a bruising by-election battle, the Labour stronghold of Caerphilly was in grave danger of being captured by the forces of Nigel Farage and Reform UK in 2025.
Famous for the three Cs of coal, cheese and its castle, Caerphilly has been represented at Westminster by Labour MPs for more than a century and in Cardiff since 1999, when the Welsh Assembly was created.
That’s about to change. Labour’s vote – once as impregnable as the castle – has crumbled like Caerphilly cheese, and the Tories, Lib Dems and Green Party are nowhere.
Image: Pic PA
But Reform’s UK hopes of a famous victory in Caerphilly could be dashed by another political party hopeful of making a huge breakthrough in Wales, Plaid Cymru, second to Labour in last year’s general election and in every election for the Senedd since devolution.
As he arrived at the count at Caerphilly Leisure Centre shortly before the polls closed, Plaid Cymru’s veteran candidate, Lindsay Whittle, 72, was remarkably cheerful. Asked if he was going to win, he declared, punching the air: “I certainly hope so!”
An opinion poll in the constituency last week put support for Reform UK at 42%, Plaid Cymru 38%, Labour a dismal 12%, the Conservatives in lost deposit territory at 4%, along with the Greens at 3% and the Lib Dems barely registering at 1%.
More on Labour
Related Topics:
Unlike Cromwell’s forces, who arrived in Caerphilly on horseback nearly 400 years ago, Mr Farage galloped into the constituency on polling day in a fast car, in what was his third visit of the by-election campaign to the constituency.
A victory for Mr Farage’s candidate, 30-year-old Llyr Powell, would leave Reform UK on the road to further triumphs and have an impact on UK politics far beyond the Welsh Valleys. It would be a pointer to massive Reform UK gains in local, Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd elections next year.
It would turn the mood of Labour MPs from its current gloom and trepidation into blind panic and would convince them – if they were not convinced already – that Mr Farage is on the march to Downing Street and many of the 2024 Labour intake will lose their seats at the next general election.
But let’s not rule out a Plaid victory. That would send shockwaves throughout Wales and be seen as a clear signal that Labour’s 26-year dominance of the Welsh government is about to come to an undignified end.
The only certainties tonight are humiliation for Labour and near-wipeout for the Conservatives and Lib Dems.
The only uncertainty is whether it’s Reform UK or Plaid Cymru whose troops – like Cromwell’s in 1645 – capture Labour’s Caerphilly stronghold.