“It’s a big deal for this government,” says Simon Case.
“It’s the clearest indication yet of what they plan to do between now and the general election, a translation of their manifesto.
“This is where you should expect the chancellor to say, on behalf of the government: ‘This is what we’re about’.”
As the former cabinet secretary, Mr Case was the man in charge of the civil service during the last spending review, in 2021.
On Wednesday, Rachel Reeves will unveil the Labour government’s priorities for the next three years. But it’s unclear whether it will provide all that much of an answer about what it’s really about.
Unlike the Autumn budget, when the chancellor announced her plans on where to tax and borrow to fund overall levels of spending, the spending review will set out exactly how that money is divided up between the different government departments.
Since the start of the process in December those departments have been bidding for their share of the cash – setting out their proposed budgets in a negotiation which looks set to continue right up to the wire.
This review is being conducted in an usual level of detail, with every single line of spending assessed, according to the chancellor, on whether it represents value for money and meets the government’s priorities. Budget proposals have been scrutinised by so called “challenge panels” of independent experts.
It’s clear that health and defence will be winners in this process given pre-existing commitments to prioritise the NHS – with a boost of up to £30bn expected – and to increase defence spending.
On Sunday morning, the government press release trumpeted an impressive-sounding “£86bn boost” to research and development (R&D), with the Science and Technology Secretary Peter Kyle sent out on the morning media round to celebrate as record levels of investment.
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14:18
What will be in spending review?
We’re told this increased spending on the life sciences, advanced manufacturing and defence will lead to jobs and growth across the country, with every £1 in investment set to lead to a £7 economic return.
But the headline figure is misleading. It’s not £86bn in new funding. That £86bn has been calculated by adding together all R&D investment across government for the next three years, which will reach an annual figure of £22.5bn by 2029-30. The figure for this year was already set to be £20.4bn; so while it’s a definite uplift, much of that money was already allocated.
Peter Kyle also highlighted plans for “the most we’ve ever spent per pupil in our school system”.
I understand the schools budget is to be boosted by £4.5bn. Again, this is clearly an uplift – but over a three-year period, that equates to just £1.5bn a year (compared with an existing budget of £63.7bn). It also has to cover the cost of extending free school meals, and the promised uplift in teachers’ pay.
In any process of prioritisation there are losers as well as winners.
We already know about planned cuts to the Department of Work and Pensions – but other unprotected departments like the Home Office and the Department of Communities and Local Government are braced for a real spending squeeze.
We’ve heard dire warnings about austerity 2.0, and the impact that would have on the government’s crime and policing priorities, its promises around housing and immigration, and on the budgets for cash-strapped local councils.
The chancellor wants to make it clear to the markets she’s sticking to her fiscal rules on balancing the books for day-to-day spending.
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But the decision to loosen the rules around borrowing to fund capital investment have given her greater room to manoeuvre in funding long-term infrastructure projects.
That’s why we’ve seen her travelling around the country this week to promote the £15.6bn she’s spending on regional transport projects.
The Treasury team clearly wants to focus on promoting the generosity of these kind of investments, and we’ll hear more in the coming days.
But there’s a real risk the story of this spending review will be about the departments which have lost out – and the promises which could slip as a result.
Police have said they are investigating a “racially aggravated” rape in the West Midlands.
Officers were called just before 8.30am on Tuesday after a Sikh woman in her 20s reported being attacked by two white men in the area around Tame Road in Oldbury.
The Sikh Federation (UK) said the perpetrators allegedly told the woman during the attack: “You don’t belong in this country, get out.”
One of the men is described as having a shaved head, of heavy build, and was reported to be wearing a dark coloured sweatshirt and gloves.
The second man was reportedly wearing a grey top with a silver zip.
West Midland Police said it is being treated as a “racially aggravated attack” and has appealed for anyone in the area who may have seen the men to contact the force.
Chief Superintendent Kim Madill said: “We are working really hard to identify those responsible, with CCTV, forensic and other enquiries well under way.
“We fully understand the anger and worry that this has caused, and I am speaking to people in the community today to reassure them that we are doing everything we can to identify and arrest those responsible.
“Incidents like this are incredibly rare, but people can expect to see extra patrols in the area.”
Dabinderjit Singh, the lead executive for political engagement at the Sikh Federation (UK), said: “The current racist political environment is driven by popularism and created by politicians playing the anti-immigration card who are unashamedly exploiting those with right-wing and racist views.
“More than 48 hours later we await the public condemnation by politicians on all sides of this brutal racist and sexual attack where a young Sikh woman has been viciously beaten and raped.”
Gurinder Singh Josan, Labour MP for Smethwick, wrote on X: “This is a truly horrific attack and my thoughts are with the victim.”
He added: “The incidence is being treated as a hate crime.
“The police are working extremely sympathetically with the victim at her pace who has been traumatised by the attack.
“We are grateful for all the CCTV and information that has already been forthcoming from the community.”
“It makes me sad. We left when our country had the troubles so we should have in this world… the humanity”.
We’re sitting in a cafe in Tamworth and Noor, 19, is explaining how it feels to know there are people in the town who don’t want him here.
Noor is from Afghanistan and came to the UK on a small boat.
The cafe is close to the asylum hotel where he’s staying.
Image: The group met in a cafe in Tamworth
He’s agreed to come along with four other men from the hotel to speak to locals about the concern in the town over the Staffordshire hotel being used to house asylum seekers.
There was a peaceful demonstration outside the hotel last month. But last year, a protest here turned ugly. Windows were smashed, petrol bombs thrown, and part of the hotel was set alight.
Among the locals in the cafe is Tom, 25, who reveals he was at both protests.
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Image: Tom (left) has attended anti-migration protests in Tamworth
He says he was persuaded to go by friends and explains to the group why they decided to go.
“They were annoyed, angry, fuming that the government had let them [asylum seekers] live in a hotel,” he says.
Noor, who speaks the best English of the asylum seekers in the group, replies: “What did we do wrong?”
Image: Noor says he is upset by people who do not want him in the UK
“Your government accepts us as asylum seekers,” he continues.
Tom thinks. “I’m more annoyed with the government than you guys,” he tells them.
‘A place to get the golden ticket’
Noor explains to the group how he ended up in the UK. He left Afghanistan four years ago with his family but they were separated on the journey. He doesn’t know where they are.
Heather, a 29-year-old local accountant, speaks up.
Image: Heather says protests outside hotels makes asylum seekers fearful
“When people protest, I’m like, why don’t you protest near the government?” she asks. “Why don’t you take your issue to them rather than being outside the hotel?”
“Those asylum seekers aren’t going to change the policy at all,” she adds. “It’s just going to make them fearful.”
Each of the locals in the cafe has their own take on why some don’t like the asylum seekers living in their town.
“I think they feel like they’re living better than the British people, some of them, and it’s almost like they feel offended,” says Andrew, 47.
“Some people in the UK see how the asylum seekers are coming over to Britain because they see it as a place to get the golden ticket,” he adds.
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10:54
UK’s unprecedented immigration figures
Heather agrees. She says the NHS is a draw and the UK also has “different border control regulations that might be seen as weaker than in some other countries”.
“You get to stay in a hotel,” she tells the asylum seekers. “You get the free health care. And so I think that’s why they’re a little bit annoyed.”
Noor replies: “One thing I should tell you is that when we cross the English Channel, it means we don’t care about our life. It’s very dangerous.”
Image: Noor and four other asylum seekers joined the meeting
Links to the UK
I’m keen to know why they chose to come to Britain. Noor tells the group it’s because he has a relative here and speaks the language.
Azim, 22, who is also from Afghanistan, says he came here because people in the UK “have respect to Islam”.
He also has a family member here.
Image: Azim says people in the UK are respectful of Islam
I ask them if they could have claimed asylum in France, but Noor says his “only hope was England”.
He says it’s “better for education” here. All the men agree it’s seen as the better place to come.
The conversation moves to the protests this summer which began in Epping, Essex, after an asylum seeker there was charged with sexually assaulting a schoolgirl – an offence he has now been convicted of.
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56:38
In full: The Immigration Debate
Noor believes British people have a right to be angry about that. He tells the group he believes that asylum seekers who commit crimes “should get back to their country”.
“We also [do] not support them,” he says.
Over the course of the meeting, the mood becomes more relaxed. People with different views find some common ground.
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3:30
Immigration Debate audience have their say
Noor tells the group that if things improve in Afghanistan he would like to go back there one day.
If not, he hopes he’ll stay in the UK and earn enough to repay in taxes the bill for the hotel he’s staying in now.
It has been a frank exchange. Some in this town will never want asylum seekers here and people like Noor and Azim know it.
But they were placed here by the Home Office and can only wait until their asylum claims are processed.
“Mum is teaching yoga and English to her cellmates in Iranian prison.”
It’s now over eight months since British couple Lindsay and Craig Foreman were detained in Iran.
Last week, during a long-awaited visit from British ambassador Hugo Shorter, it was confirmed that the pair continue to endure tough conditions with no indication of how – or when – the legal process will proceed.
“They’re both coping, making the best of a bad situation. They’re in conditions you can’t even imagine.”
Image: Lindsay Foreman with son Joe Bennett. Pic: Family handout
Speaking to Sky News, their son Joe Bennett explained how the couple have been crammed into cells with more than 50 other prisoners, while suffering constant back pain caused by metal bunk beds.
“The beds are stacked three high. It’s unsanitary. It’s hot. There are often power outages and they’re in 50-degree heat.”
Image: Craig and Lindsay Foreman. Pic: Family handout
Lindsay and Craig, both 52, were arrested in early January in Iran, as they crossed the country on motorbikes as part of an around-the-world adventure. The couple had left Spain just a few weeks earlier and were aiming to drive all the way to Australia.
They were charged with espionage and have been transferred to various prisons around Iran, with little information provided to British diplomatic staff about their whereabouts.
Joe and the rest of the family have only managed to speak to their parents once on the phone. “In a brief conversation that I had with my mum, we managed to share a laugh and a lot of tears as well. But it’s a test of time, how long they can keep this up for.”
Image: Pic: Family handout
The UK ambassador’s meeting with Craig was the first in over four months, and despite suffering from untreated dental pain, he quipped about becoming a “reluctant Arsenal supporter” while watching football on television with other prisoners.
The couple were previously held together in a facility in the Iranian city of Kerman but have been moved to separate prisons in the capital, Tehran. Family members are calling on the Iranians to move Lindsay into the same facility where Craig is being detained.
Image: Pic: Family handout
Their son acknowledged in his interview with Sky News that he was frustrated with his parents when they were arrested in January. Family members had urged them not to travel through the country.
“I had that natural reaction that some of the public do – why did they go? It’s idiotic, you’re going against the advice, and it serves them right. That’s fair enough when you don’t know them [but] just picture your parents having a bit of a sense of adventure… it’s a different story.”
The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office says it is “deeply concerned” about the couple, adding, “we continue to raise this case directly with the Iranian authorities”.
Members of the Foreman family are urging the British government and the new foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, to take direct action to improve harsh prison conditions and urgently organise for Lindsay and Craig’s release.
“I need them home, you know, and I need them home as soon as possible. We need them, the family miss them dearly – so we’re going to do everything we can to make that possible.”