US-China trade talks: The fact neither side is saying much on the outcome – says a lot
In the absence of detail, all we can do is read between the lines of what may or may not have been agreed in the London talks between the US and China.
And a degree of scepticism feels appropriate.
The fact neither side is saying much says a lot in itself. A major new breakthrough seems unlikely.
You only need to compare it to the conduct of the delegations following the first round of talks in Geneva to feel the difference in tone. Those talks did indeed yield significant breakthroughs including temporary reductions to most of the tariffs and an agreement to keep talking.
There, the Americans in particular were quick to get in front of the cameras to describe the “substantial progress” with Trump himself extolling “a total reset” in the relationship.
Not so this time.
Instead we have relatively dry statements from both sides about a “framework to implement the consensus” reached at both Geneva and during a phone call between Trump and Xi last week.
Any further description was tepid at best, with China’s official news agency describing the discussions as “candid” a word often used when there has been substantial disagreement.
Read more: Why Trump blinked in US-China trade war
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May: US and China end trade war
High stakes
It’s hard to overstate how high the stakes have become.
What started as a trade war has morphed into a dangerous supply chain war with the potential to wreak deep economic harm.
And by most assessments, it is China that has the upper hand.
Indeed, while the US has introduced a spate of new measures designed to block China’s access to high-tech chips, China has moved to slow and complicate the exports of crucial rare earth minerals to the US.
These metals are absolutely vital in the manufacture of everything from cars to weaponry, and China has the vast majority of the world’s supply.
The new controls have brought some production lines to the brink of standstill, and the West is alarmed.
On the ground here in China you get a sense that while this standoff will cause pain, there is confidence too, particularly in its ability to home grow the type of technology the US is attempting to block.
Indeed, as these talks were ongoing, a branch of the Chinese government was showing foreign journalists around usually hard-to-access high-tech businesses.
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April: US ends zero duty on Chinese goods
A confident China
A controlled and choreographed affair, yes, but an insight too into where government attention and priorities lie and where they are feeling confident.
“We’ve caught up with America in terms of technology and quality,” said Zhou Zhiliang, CEO of GeneMind, a high-tech DNA sequencing and diagnostics company.
“We just need to catch up in terms of the market, building trust in Chinese products and the scale of utilisation.”
Others, when we asked about restrictions imposed by the US, seemed relatively unfazed.
“The trade friction between China and US will have an impact on many industries,” said Zhang Jinhua, founder of IASO Biotechnology, a company specialising in high-tech cell therapies.
“But this is what running a business is like, you always have to face challenges and situations you never expected before, you have to face them.”
And while some moments of candour reveal the frustrations faced by Chinese businesses, the attitude seems to be that none are insurmountable.
“We were selling our products via Amazon, although we now face some problems,” said Yu Kai, co-founder of conversational AI product AISpeech.
“But I believe it can be solved. The current technology dispute doesn’t affect us very much, because we rely on ourselves.”
Indeed, that is the key problem for the US.
China can increasingly rely on itself and is making rapid progress in the development of its own chips and AI technology.
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In contrast, the US is totally beholden to China on rare earths; the development of its own supply would be lengthy and extortionately expensive.
With this upper hand, China will have been driving an exceedingly hard bargain in London.
In an atmosphere of extreme distrust, where neither side will want to be seen to concede, reaching a sustainable truce will be very hard indeed.
World
Jair Bolsonaro: Brazilian Supreme Court judges vote to convict ex-president of attempting a coup
The majority of a panel of Brazilian Supreme Court judges have voted to convict the country’s former president Jair Bolsonaro of attempting a coup after his 2022 election defeat.
The far-right politician, who ruled Brazil between 2019 and 2022, was found guilty on five counts by three members of a five-justice panel.
Just one of the five judges has acquitted Bolsonaro and when the final one has voted, the panel will decide on the former president’s sentence – which could amount to decades in prison.
The five counts were trying to stage a coup, being part of an armed criminal organisation, attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, being implicated in violence, and posing a serious threat to the state’s assets and listed heritage.
Pic: AP
The 70-year-old, who has denied any wrongdoing, is currently under house arrest at his home in Brasilia.
His lawyers have said they will appeal the verdict.
The ruling will deepen political divisions in Brazil and is also likely to prompt a backlash from the United States government.
Bolsonaro ally Donald Trump has already called the case a “witch hunt”, slapped Brazil with tariff hikes and revoked US visas for most members of Brazil’s high court.
Bolsonaro is the first former Brazilian president to be convicted of attempting a coup.
He has not attended the court proceedings, and on Thursday he was seen at his garage at his property, but did not talk to the media.
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Justice Carmen Lucia. Pic: AP
Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is overseeing the case, said on Tuesday that Bolsonaro was the leader of a coup plot and of a criminal organisation, and voted in favour of convicting him. Justices Flavio Dino, Carmen Lucia and Cristiano Zanin sided with Justice Moraes in the trial.
On Wednesday, another justice, Luiz Fux, disagreed and voted to acquit the ex-president of all charges.
Justice Lucia said she was convinced by the evidence the attorney general’s office put forward against Bolsonaro.
She said: “He is the instigator, the leader of an organisation that orchestrated every possible move to maintain or seize power.”
The far-right politician had been previously banned from running for office until 2030 in a different case.
He is expected to choose an heir who is likely to challenge President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva next year.
World
Qatari PM says Israel ‘killed any hope’ of releasing hostages as criticism over Doha attack intensifies
Qatar’s prime minister said Israel has “killed any hope” of seeing more hostages returned from Gaza after carrying out an attack targeting Hamas leadership in his country.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani intensified his criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Tuesday’s unprecedented strike on Qatar, which killed at least six people.
“I was meeting one of the hostage’s families the morning of the attack,” Sheikh Mohammed told CNN in an interview aired late Wednesday.
“They are counting on this [ceasefire] mediation, they have no other hope for that.”
Sheikh Mohammed added that he thought Netanyahu had “just killed any hope for those hostages”.
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Ceasefire talks left in ‘tatters’
A total of 48 Israeli hostages captured during Hamas’ 7 October attacks on southern Israel have not been returned home.
With its attack in Qatar, Israel had sought to kill the political leaders of the Islamist group Hamas.
Hamas has said its top leaders survived the airstrike, but five members were killed, including the son of its exiled Gaza chief and top negotiator Khalil al Hayya.
The Israeli military operation in Doha has been widely condemned internationally and was particularly sensitive as Qatar has been mediating negotiations to bring about a ceasefire in the war in Gaza.
US President Donald Trump reportedly held a heated phone call with Mr Netanyahu after the attack, telling him his decision to target Hamas leadership in Qatar was not wise, according to The Wall Street Journal.
There has been no immediate acknowledgement of the remarks from Mr Netanyahu, however, he’s continued to defend the strikes and threatened further action against Qatar.
“I say to Qatar and all nations who harbour terrorists, you either expel them or you bring them to justice,” Mr Netanyahu said. “Because if you don’t, we will.”
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A senior figure in the Qatari government, Dr Majed Al-Ansari, was the one to announce to the world on X that America’s call to alert them to the attack came 10 minutes after the first explosion sounded in Doha.
Dr Al-Ansari, who serves as Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson, recounted the moment of the attack to Sky News’ correspondent Sally Lockwood.
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“I was coming home to my family and the moment I stepped out of the car I started hearing the loud noises that can only be compared to bombs,” he said.
“Being a diplomat and working for the foreign ministry throughout the mediation that we have conducted, I immediately knew that that meant that something terrible has happened.
“I can’t tell you enough how as a father living here in Qatar, that moment was a moment of reckoning for me and for all my countrymen and people who reside here in Qatar, where our lives were at risk because of the narcissistic and personal ambitions of a political operator who wants to throw the whole region into chaos.”
Donald Trump had a heated phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after his military targeted Hamas inside Qatar, according to a report.
The American president told Mr Netanyahu on Tuesday that the decision to strike inside the US ally’s territory was not wise, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing senior administration officials.
The Israeli prime minister responded by saying he had a brief window to launch the airstrike and took the opportunity, according to the newspaper.
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Anger over Israeli strikes on Qatar
A second call between the two leaders later that day was cordial, with Mr Trump asking Mr Netanyahu if the attack had been successful, the publication added.
Israel attempted to kill the political leaders of the Islamist group Hamas with the attack in the Qatari capital Doha on Tuesday.
Hamas has said its top leaders survived the airstrike, but five members were killed, including the son of its exiled Gaza chief and top negotiator Khalil al Hayya.
The Israeli military operation in Doha has been widely condemned internationally and was particularly sensitive as Qatar has been hosting and mediating in negotiations which are trying to bring about a ceasefire in the war in Gaza.
On Wednesday, Mr Netanyahu warned Qatar to either expel Hamas officials or “bring them to justice. Because if you don’t, we will”.
Qatar has hit back at him, saying his comments about the Gulf nation hosting a Hamas office were “reckless”.
Donald Trump with Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House earlier this year. Pic: Reuters
Meanwhile, the Israeli ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, has said that if Israel failed to kill Hamas leaders on Tuesday, it would succeed next time.
“We have put terrorists on notice, wherever they may be… we’re going to pursue them, and we’re going to destroy those who will destroy us,” he said.
The airstrike took place shortly after Hamas claimed responsibility for Monday’s shooting at a bus stop on the outskirts of Jerusalem that killed six people.
Read more:
Analysis: Israel has crossed a huge diplomatic red line
In another development, Sir Keir Starmer has had talks with Israeli President Isaac Herzog in Downing Street, with Mr Herzog saying they argued during a “tough meeting”.
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PM meets Israeli president
PM condemns Israeli action
The prime minister has condemned the Israeli attack in Qatar, and raised the matter with the president, saying it was “completely unacceptable”.
“He said the strikes were a flagrant violation of a key partner’s sovereignty and do nothing to secure the peace we all desperately want to see,” a Downing Street spokesperson said.
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Israel has been angered by Britain’s plans to join several other Western countries, including France and Canada, in recognising a Palestinian state later this month – unless Israel meets conditions including a ceasefire in Gaza.
“Things were said that were tough and strong, and clearly we can argue, because when allies meet, they can argue. We are both democracies,” Mr Herzog said at an event at Chatham House.
He also proposed offering a “fact-finding mission” to Israel, “sitting with us and studying the situation in Gaza on the humanitarian level”.
“Because we have full answers, and we are fully transparent,” he said.
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