Economists suspected that the comfortable growth enjoyed at the beginning of the year might prove to be short-lived, and they appear to be right.
After expanding by 0.7% in the first quarter of the year, output struggled at the start of the second quarter, shrinking by 0.3% in April.
The damp performance is likely to continue, with economists expecting a 0.1% decline over the second quarter.
The dashboard is flashing warning signs.
The economic data for the start of the year was flattered by people bringing forward house purchases to beat the stamp duty holiday deadline as well as businesses racing to get orders out of the door to beat possible US tariffs.
Now that those temporary factors have faded away, we can better gauge the state of the economy. It makes for unpleasant reading.
A hobbled economy
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We are still being hobbled by low growth and high taxes, and the two are reinforcing each other.
In a more detailed breakdown, the ONS revealed that the services sector shrank by 0.4%.
Although economists were expecting consumer spending to hold up, businesses are gripped by a crisis of confidence, with higher national insurance contributions forcing them to put up prices.
This led to a drop in sales. At the same time, the legal sector also came crashing down to earth following a drop in house purchases.
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Reeves refuses to rule out tax rises
Consumers have less space than usual to absorb price rises, with utility bills on the up and general inflation proving persistent. Taxes are already at a generational high, and they could go higher if the economy disappoints.
The Chancellor Rachel Reeves‘s headroom against her fiscal rule is tight, with debt interest payments on the country’s debt eating into her room for manoeuvre.
A Reeves or a Trump problem?
The chancellor today pointed to factors outside of her control, hinting towards President Trump’s tariff policy.
Most of Britain’s problems are domestic ones – high government borrowing costs, rising cost of living pressures and higher taxation, but geopolitical forces have also conspired against us.
The production sector, which captures manufacturing, fell by 0.6%. This was driven by a 9.5% drop in the manufacturing of cars, with industry groups warning of a slump in export orders after Trump’s imposition of industry-wide tariffs at the end of March.
British officials are hopeful that the US will start lifting car tariffs this week after adeal was struck back in May, but it still hangs in the balance.
Even then, a new quota limits the scope for companies to grow in the US market. That’s bad news for the likes of JLR, the maker of Jaguars and Land Rovers.
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All this matters for a chancellor with a historically small fiscal headroom. Even small changes in the growth outlook could derail her plans, forcing further tax rises to pay for her spending plans.
She is betting big on investment in infrastructure- trains, nuclear power, social housing – but it could take many years for that to pay dividends, if it pays dividends at all.
In the meantime, the debt continues to grow as she borrows to fund those projects, putting further pressure on her budget to cover the interest payments alone.
The US has agreed to spare the UK from threatened trade tariffs on pharmaceutical products.
The announcement was made following months of uncertainty over whether exports from the UK, and elsewhere across Europe, would be subject to steep charges.
Via the policy update, the UK has become the only country in the world to secure a zero per cent tariff on pharmaceuticals exported to the US. Tariffs are taxes imposed on imports into a country.
In return, the UK has agreed to increase the baseline threshold used to assess if medicines can be used by the NHS.
The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) will increase the base threshold by 25%: from £20,000-£30,000 to £25,000-£35,000.
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It means NICE will be able to approve medicines that deliver significant health improvements but might have been declined purely on cost-effectiveness grounds, the government said.
This could include breakthrough cancer treatments, therapies for rare diseases, and innovative approaches to conditions that have long been difficult to treat, it added.
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Many items require rare earth materials for manufacture and China has an abundance.
This will give NICE the opportunity to approve more new medicines and allow a greater number of patients to benefit from them, the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry (ABPI) said.
It pointed out that NICE’s baseline cost-effectiveness threshold has not been increased for over 20 years.
A US government statement said the UK will “reverse the decade-long trend of declining National Health Service (NHS) expenditures on innovative, life-saving medicines, and increase the net price it pays for new medicines by 25%”.
US trade representative Jamieson Greer said the US “will work to ensure that UK citizens have access to latest pharmaceutical breakthroughs”.
The background
US President Donald Trump has long complained that Europe does not pay enough for US drugs.
America and the UK agreed in May to seek a deal on the proviso that firms secured a better operating environment in Britain.
Criticism includes the concern that firms lose out on revenue due to a pricing regime which prioritises low costs for the NHS over incentives to invest.
In October, the science minister Patrick Vallance told MPs, as talks with the US continued, that many drugs available in the UK would see an “inevitable” price increase.
Zipcar has announced proposals to shut its UK operations by the end of the year.
The US-headquartered car-sharing group said it plans to “temporarily” suspend new bookings after 31 December after launching a formal consultation with employees over its closure.
The UK operation had 71 employees at the end of 2024, according to its most recently filed accounts.
The company said its customers would still be able to use Zipcars over Christmas and up to 31 December.
James Taylor, general manager of Zipcar UK, told customers: “I’m writing to let you know that we are proposing to cease the UK operations of Zipcar and have today started formal consultation with our UK employees.
“We will temporarily suspend bookings, pending the outcome of this consultation. This means it will not be possible to make any new bookings beyond 31st December 2025, pending the outcome of the consultation.
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“This means it will not be possible to make any new bookings beyond December 31 2025, pending the outcome of the consultation.”
He said that customer accounts will remain until the company has confirmed its decision at the end of the consultation process.
Accounts showed that the van and car hire firm saw losses deepen to £5.7m in 2024 after a decrease in customer trips.
The family of a father-of-four who died on holiday in Benidorm say new evidence has further convinced them that foul play was involved in his death.
Nathan Osman, 30, from Pontypridd in South Wales, was on a long weekend break with friends in Benidorm in September 2024.
Less than 24 hours after he arrived, his body was found by an off-duty police officer at the bottom of a remote 650ft (200m) cliff on the outskirts of the resort.
He died from head and abdominal injuries after falling from height, a post-mortem found.
Local police said it was “a tragic accident” that occurred after Nathan left his friends in Benidorm to walk back to his hotel room alone.
But his family believe the investigation into his death has not been adequate, and that the local authorities have never considered the possibility of a homicide.
Their suspicions of foul play were first provoked by the fact that the remote location where Nathan was found was in the opposite direction to the hotel, and some distance away on foot.
They began doing their own investigating, building a timeline of events drawn from sources including CCTV, witness statements and Nathan’s bank records, which they say showed attempts were made to use his bank cards the day after he died.
Now, the family have told Sarah-Jane Mee on The UK Tonight that new phone data they have uncovered suggests he couldn’t have reached the spot he was found on foot.
Image: Nathan’s brother Lee, mother Elizabeth and father Jonathan speak to Sarah-Jane Mee
After getting the phone back a couple of months ago, they say they tracked Nathan’s last movements through a health app.
“There’s a breakdown inside the app of every 10 minutes – the distance, pace, measurement of pace… every detail you can think of,” Nathan’s brother, Lee Evans, tells Mee.
“His pace wasn’t consistent with a fast walk or even a sprint.”
He said it was a faster journey, despite being uphill for 40 minutes, which has convinced the family that he was in a vehicle.
Image: Pic: Family handout
The family also went to visit the area where Nathan was found.
“We were a bit upset, but we were very pleased we went up there”, his mother, Elizabeth, says. “We could see… there’s no way he would have looked at that area and thought, ‘I’m going up here.’
“You can see straight off, there’s no clubs, there’s no hotels up there, there’s just the odd house dotted around. It was just out in the wild, there was nothing up there.”
The family says the phone data has helped them determine that he died around half an hour after he was seen on CCTV walking towards his hotel in the early hours of the morning.
“It was really ridiculous to think that my son would’ve walked up there [the remote location where he died] at 4am in the pitch dark.”
After the family were interviewed by Mee in May, South Wales Police opened its own investigation into Nathan’s death.
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Nathan’s family speaking to Mee in May
Lee says the Welsh force has been “appalled” by the lack of evidence turned over from the local police’s investigation.
His and Nathan’s father, Jonathan, says: “No procedures were followed. Nothing was cordoned off, it wasn’t a crime scene. There’s loads of things that could’ve been taken. Tyre tracks, foot tracks, nothing. No DNA taken.”
Lee says: “All that we’ve done over the last year, this could’ve been squashed within the first week, two weeks [by local investigators].
“We’ve had to find out and keep delving into every possible outcome and overturn every stone possible. We started off with… a needle in a haystack, we had no direction or any support on which way to go.”
Image: Nathan Osman. Pic: Family handout
What does Nathan’s family hope for now?
Nathan’s family say they have located 27 CCTV cameras which could have picked Nathan up in the area, after local investigators didn’t find any.
Elizabeth says that after alerting Spanish police to the locations, they were told that the CCTV “wouldn’t be working” or that footage would’ve already been erased.
“They just surmised everything,” she adds.
But the family, who found the last known CCTV footage of Nathan earlier this year, are convinced there is still hope.
Lee says: “There’s a number of CCTV footage in that area. We know there’s a way of finding a vehicle of some sort.”
But the family admit they may never find whoever could be responsible for Nathan’s death because so much time has been lost.
Elizabeth concludes: “Nathan walks with us every day. We all believe that,” adding that “all we want” is to find the ones responsible for his death and for him to “have the respect of a decent investigation”.
Sky News contacted Spanish police, which declined to comment, adding the case is under judicial review and it doesn’t want to hinder the course of the investigation.
South Wales Police told Sky News: “South Wales Police is carrying out enquiries on behalf of HM Coroner and a family liaison officer has been appointed to provide support.”
Watch the full interview with Sarah-Jane Mee on The UK Tonight from 8pm this evening on Sky News.