Israel’s killing of Iran’s top military chiefs a serious blow to regime – but will it impact Tehran’s response?
Israel’s offensive is not just aimed at degrading Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but also its ability to retaliate, according to analysts.
A barrage of Israeli airstrikes and drones hit Iranian nuclear facilities as well as military targets in the early hours of Friday morning, followed by subsequent waves in an operation that the Israeli prime minister warned “will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat”.
Israel-Iran latest: Iran retaliates against airstrikes
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said Iran’s top three military chiefs, as well as other commanders, had been killed – a serious blow to the Iranian regime, as these men would have been key in planning Iran’s response.
“The breadth and scale of these strikes – against senior Iranian officials and other military facilities in addition to nuclear sites – suggest this operation is intended to not just dissuade Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons, but also cripple any potential military response and even to destabilise the regime,” said Matthew Savill, the director of military sciences at the Royal United Services (RUSI) thinktank.
The most significant target so far is the country’s main nuclear enrichment facility at Natanz.
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How successful was Israel’s operation?
An Israeli military spokesman said “significant damage” had been caused at Natanz, while the UN’s nuclear watchdog confirmed it had been struck.
Iran’s other main nuclear enrichment site at Fordow has not yet been struck.
Analysts say for Israel to succeed in setting back Iranian nuclear ambitions, it would need to destroy the infrastructure at Fordow too.
However, it is built into a mountain and is approximately 80 to 90 metres underground.
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People in Tehran protest against Israel
Israel would need to launch multiple raids to have an effect, or receive support from US aircraft that carry bigger bombs.
Analysts have questioned whether Israel will be able to set back Iran’s nuclear ambitions as much as it wants through military means alone, and may end up having the opposite effect.
Read more: Why did Israel attack Iran?
Iranian nuclear sites are dispersed across the country, with the most sensitive locations, such as a vast nuclear enrichment facility at Fordow, contained in bunkers built deep underground.
Killing nuclear scientists – also part of the Israeli operation – will also not remove the country’s nuclear knowledge, which can be rebuilt.
Darya Dolzikova, a senior research fellow on proliferation and nuclear policy at RUSI, warned that the offensive may harden Tehran’s resolve to develop nuclear weapons.
“I think that is a real threat,” she said.
The Iranian regime has always insisted its nuclear programme is purely for civilian use.
As well as targeting nuclear sites, Israel has also gone after the military commanders who would direct Iran’s anticipated retaliation.
This includes Iran’s military chief, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, and the leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Major General Hossein Salami.
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Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group, wrote on social media: “Most of Iran’s senior military leadership -and the individuals who would have planned the retaliation for this attack – are dead.”
Israel also claims to have struck Iranian air defences and taken out dozens of radars and missile launchers, again impacting on Iran’s ability to retaliate.
Whether or not this tactic has been effective will soon become clear as Iran readies its response.
Israel says the Iranians have so far launched about 100 attack drones that its forces are working to intercept.
Watch a special programme on Israel’s attack on Iran on The World with Yalda Hakim on Sky News tonight at 7pm.
Thousands of troops are taking part in a joint military exercise between Russia and Belarus, as tensions with the EU run high following a Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace earlier this week.
The Zapad joint military exercise which began on Friday will involve drills in both Russia and Belarus as well as in the Baltic and Barents seas, the Russian defence ministry said.
Belarusian defence officials initially said about 13,000 troops would participate in the drill, but in May, its defence ministry said that would be cut nearly in half.
It comes just two days after Poland, with support from its NATO allies, shot down Russian drones over its airspace.
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Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk on Friday morning hit back at a suggestion by US President Donald Trump on Thursday that the incursion may have been a “mistake”.
He said in a post on X: “We would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake. But it wasn’t. And we know it.”
Russia said its forces had been attacking Ukraine at the time of the incursions and that it had not intended to hit any targets in Poland.
Friday also saw Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper travelling to Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv on the same day the UK announced fresh sanctions against Moscow.
Prince Harry was also in Kyiv for a surprise visit to help with the recovery of military personnel seriously injured in the three-year war with Russia.
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Prince Harry arrives in Kyiv
Ms Cooper, who was appointed foreign secretary last week, posted about her visit on X saying: “The UK’s support for Ukraine is steadfast. I am pleased to be in Kyiv on my first visit as Foreign Secretary.”
The UK’s new sanctions include bans on 70 vessels that Britain says are part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” that transports Russian oil in defiance of sanctions already in place.
Yvette Cooper with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv. Pic: Valentyn Ogirenko/PA
Some 30 individuals and companies – including Chinese and Turkey-based firms – have also been sanctioned for their part in supplying Russia with electronics, chemicals, explosives and other weapons components.
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Meanwhile on the frontline, Ukrainian drones struck Russia’s oil-loading Primorsk port overnight, an SBU official said.
The attack caused fires and suspended oil-loading operations, the official added.
Russian defence systems also intercepted and destroyed 221 Ukrainian drones overnight.
Prince Harry has made a surprise visit to the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, a spokesperson for the royal has said.
Harry, who served 10 years in the British Army, visited the city at the invitation of the Ukrainian government.
The Duke of Sussex travelled to the capital to help with the recovery of military personnel seriously injured in the three-year war with Russia.
Pic: Railway of Ukraine Ukrzaliznytsia/AP
Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper will also be travelling to Kyiv on Friday in what will be her first foreign trip since being appointed to the job last week.
Her visit coincides with the UK launching a new package of Russia-related sanctions targeting ships carrying Russian oil as well as companies and individuals supplying electronics, chemicals and explosives used to make Russian weapons.
It comes as Russia and Belarus began a major joint military exercise on on NATO’s doorstep on Friday, just two days after Poland, with support from its NATO allies, shot down suspected Russian drones over its airspace.
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Drones shot down in Poland
The Zapad-2025 exercise – a show of force by Russia and its close ally – will involve drills in both countries and in the Baltic and Barents seas, the Russian defence ministry said.
Meanwhile on the frontline, Russian defence systems intercepted and destroyed 221 Ukrainian drones overnight,
including nine over the Moscow region, the ministry said on Friday.
The duke told the Guardian while on an overnight train to Kyiv: “We cannot stop the war but what we can do is do everything we can to help the recovery process.
“We can continue to humanise the people involved in this war and what they are going through.
“We have to keep it in the forefront of people’s minds. I hope this trip will help to bring it home to people because it’s easy to become desensitised to what has been going on.”
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Harry, who served two tours in Afghanistan, previously travelled to Ukraine in April, when he visited war victims as part of his work with wounded veterans.
The prince visited the Superhumans Center, an orthopaedic clinic in Lviv that treats and rehabilitates wounded military personnel and civilians.
Earlier this week, Harry said the King is “great” after he reunited with him at Clarence House for a private tea.
It was their first meeting in 19 months and lasted just 54 minutes.
The last time the father and son saw each other was in February 2024 when the prince flew to the UK after the monarch announced his cancer diagnosis.
Harry and his wife Meghan Markle have lived in California since they quit roles as senior working royals in March 2020.
Brazil’s former president Jair Bolsonaro has been sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison for attempting a coup to stay in power after his 2022 election defeat.
The far-right politician, who ruled Brazil between 2019 and 2022, is currently under house arrest in the capital, Brasilia.
A panel of five Supreme Court justices handed down the sentence several hours after they found the 70-year-old guilty on five counts.
The counts were trying to stage a coup, being part of an armed criminal organisation, attempting violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, being implicated in violence, and posing a serious threat to the state’s assets and listed heritage.
Bolsonaro‘s lawyers have said they will appeal the verdict.
Pic: AP
The ruling will deepen political divisions in Brazil and is also likely to prompt a backlash from the United States government – with Donald Trump already sharing his thoughts on the vote.
President Trump, an ally of Bolsonaro, has said he was surprised and “very unhappy” with the decision.
Speaking to reporters outside the White House, he said he always found Bolsonaro “outstanding” and said the conviction is “very bad for Brazil”.
Mr Trump previously called the case a “witch hunt”, slapped Brazil with tariff hikes, and revoked US visas for most members of Brazil’s high court.
Bolsonaro is the first former Brazilian president to be convicted of attempting a coup.
He has not attended the court proceedings, and on Thursday, he was seen at the garage of his property, but did not talk to the media.
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Justice Carmen Lucia. Pic: AP
Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who has been overseeing the case, said on Tuesday that Bolsonaro was the leader of a coup plot and of a criminal organisation, and voted in favour of convicting him. Justices Flavio Dino, Carmen Lucia, and Cristiano Zanin sided with Justice Moraes in the trial.
On Wednesday, another justice, Luiz Fux, disagreed and voted to acquit the ex-president of all charges.
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Justice Lucia said she was convinced by the evidence the attorney general’s office put forward against Bolsonaro, saying: “He is the instigator, the leader of an organisation that orchestrated every possible move to maintain or seize power.”
Bolsonaro had been previously banned from running for office until 2030 in a different case.
He is expected to choose an heir who is likely to challenge President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva next year.
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