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This is the highest stakes diplomacy via social media. 

The American president just posted on his Truth Social platform: “We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding.

“He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers.

“Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

Israel-Iran live: Trump says US knows where Iran’s supreme leader is ‘hiding’

It was followed minutes later by “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”

In real-time, we are witnessing Donald Trump’s extreme version of maximum pressure diplomacy.

He’d probably call it the ‘art of the deal’, but bunker busters are the tool, and it comes with such huge consequences, intended and unintended, known and unknown.

Read more:
The bunker buster bomb which could destroy Iran’s nuclear ambitions

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Nuclear sites targeted in Iran

There is intentional ambiguity in the president’s messaging. His assumption is that he can apply his ‘art of the deal’ strategy to a deeply ideological geopolitical challenge.

It’s all playing out publicly. Overnight, the New York Times, via two of its best-sourced reporters, had been told that Mr Trump is weighing whether to use B-2 aircraft to drop bunker-busting bombs on Iran’s underground nuclear facilities.

Meanwhile, Axios was reporting that a meeting is possible between Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi.

The reporting came just as Mr Trump warned “everyone in Tehran to evacuate”. The nuclear sites being threatened with bunker busters are not in Tehran, but Trump’s words are designed to stoke tension, to confuse and to apply intense pressure.

His actions are too. He left the G7 in Canada early and asked his teams to gather in the White House Situation Room.

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Trump: ‘I want an end, not a ceasefire’

This is a game of smoke, mirrors, brinkmanship and – maybe – bluff. In Tehran, what’s left of the leadership is watching and reading closely as they consider what’s next.

Maybe the Supreme Leader and his regime’s days are numbered. Things remain very unpredictable.

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From history, though, regime change, even when it comes with a plan – and there is certainly not one here, spells civil war and from that comes a refugee crisis.

These are truly tense and chaotic times.

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Netanyahu backs Trump’s peace plan for Gaza – as role for Blair revealed

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Netanyahu backs Trump's peace plan for Gaza - as role for Blair revealed

The White House has unveiled its peace plan for Gaza – which includes a senior role for Sir Tony Blair.

The 20-point plan was released by the US government just minutes before Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu held a joint news conference on Monday evening.

As it happened: Trump unveils peace plan

The plan states that if the fighting ends, Gaza will be placed under the control of a transitional government headed by Mr Trump and others, including former British prime minister Sir Tony.

The president described him as a “good man”, while the ex-Labour leader commended the “bold” plan.

It says Gaza will “be a deradicalised terror-free zone that does not pose a threat to its neighbours”, with no role for Hamas in its future governance, and will be “redeveloped for the benefit of” its people.

It also says nobody will be forced to leave Gaza and states there will be increased aid to the enclave. Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza, it says.

The remaining Israeli hostages being held by Hamas must be released within 72 hours, the plan states. It says this will be followed by Israel releasing Palestinian prisoners.

Read more: What we know about Trump’s plan

Tony Blair will have a big role in governing Gaza, if Trump's plan goes ahead. File pic: Reuters
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Tony Blair will have a big role in governing Gaza, if Trump’s plan goes ahead. File pic: Reuters

Speaking at the White House, Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu said to Mr Trump: “I support your plan to end the war in Gaza which achieves our war aims.”

“It will bring back to Israel all our hostages, dismantle Hamas’s military capabilities and its political rule, and ensure that Gaza never again poses a threat to Israel,” he said.

Hamas said on Monday evening it only received the peace plan after it was unveiled at the White House.

It has said it cannot sign up to anything that does not include Palestinian self-determination, and has dismissed any disarmament so long as Israeli occupation of Gaza continues.

Adam Parsons analysis: Hamas’ first reaction is telling

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Analysis: Will Trump’s Gaza peace plan work?

Sir Keir Starmer said the initiative is “profoundly welcome” and he is “grateful” for Mr Trump’s leadership.

“We strongly support his efforts to end the fighting, release the hostages and ensure the provision of urgent humanitarian assistance for the people of Gaza,” said the British prime minister.

“This is our top priority and should happen immediately.”

The Israeli foreign ministry earlier took a swipe at the UK for Labour Party members voting to accept Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, which has placed pressure on the government to do the same.

“The world stands with the US and Israel in their efforts to end the war,” it said.

“Labour stands with Hamas. It is a disgrace for Britain that this is the party in power.”

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Trump envoy Witkoff ‘hopeful’ on Gaza plan

Blair ‘a good man’, says Trump

The US president singled out Sir Tony for praise, labelling him a “good man” as he named him one of the political figures who would be on Gaza’s transitional governing body.

Mr Trump said “leaders that are very distinguished” would be on the board, adding: “And one of the people that wants to be on the board is the UK former prime minister Tony Blair. Good man, very good man. And some others.”

Mr Trump said the body will be called the “Board of Peace”, with other members to be named in the coming days.

Sir Tony attended a meeting with Mr Trump and others to discuss the future of Gaza in August.

Read more:
Destruction of Gaza hospital witnessed by nurse
Diplomats walk out as Israeli PM speaks at UN

Many in Labour won’t like it but Blair is an experienced Middle East power broker


John Craig

Jon Craig

Chief political correspondent

@joncraig

Blair has been one of the “key architects” of the peace plan, including visiting the White House in recent months.

His history in the Middle East – the invasion of Iraq in 2003 – hangs over him, but the former PM does have experience in the area.

Going back to the 1990s, nearly 30 years ago, he was involved in talks with PLO leader Yasser Arafat and others to try to bring peace to the Middle East.

When he left Number 10 in 2007, he became a Middle East envoy for what was known as the quartet – the EU, US, Russia and the United Nations.

He gets on well with Benjamin Netanyahu – that’s another crucial factor.

While many in Labour will not be happy with Blair’s involvement, it is clear to see why the likes of Netanyahu and Trump will approve of it.

This is because Blair is an experienced negotiator and power broker in the region.

Think back to the Good Friday Agreement, his role in Kosovo and Sierra Leone – he’s always wanted to tackle these seemingly intractable international problems.

After resigning as prime minister in 2007, Sir Tony was appointed as the international community’s special envoy to the Middle East with the goal of helping develop the Palestinian economy and institutions in order to prepare the groundwork for a Palestinian state.

However, he struggled to deliver dramatic changes in the role and resigned in 2015.

In a statement issued after the White House’s announcement, Sir Tony said the US plan is “bold and intelligent”.

“It offers us the best chance of ending two years of war, misery, and suffering and I thank President Trump for his leadership, determination and commitment,” he said.

World leaders welcome Trump’s plan

In a joint statement, the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Egypt welcomed the plan.

The ministers – along with their counterparts from Pakistan, Turkey, and Indonesia – said they were ready to cooperate positively with the US and other relevant parties.

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Moldova’s ruling pro-EU party takes lead in parliamentary elections against Russia-leaning rivals

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Moldova's ruling pro-EU party takes lead in parliamentary elections against Russia-leaning rivals

Moldova’s pro-EU party seems to have secured a strong win against its Russia-leaning rival in what has been described as the most consequential election since the country’s independence.

With more than 99% of votes counted, Moldova’s ruling party, the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), had a share of 49.99%, versus 24.28% for the Patriotic Bloc, which opposes closer ties with Brussels.

Holding a majority in the 101-seat chamber would allow PAS to keep pushing for its goal of joining the EU.

If it falls short, it will have to try to form a coalition with smaller parties.

The Patriotic Bloc aims to win power and steer the nation – a former Soviet republic – away from closer ties with Brussels and the EU.

Moldova’s pro-Western president Maia Sandu, who wants the country to join the EU by 2030, reiterated long-held claims that Russia has interfered with elections.

Moldova's President Maia Sandu casts her vote during parliamentary election, in Chisinau, Moldova. Pic: AP
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Moldova’s President Maia Sandu casts her vote during parliamentary election, in Chisinau, Moldova. Pic: AP

After casting her ballot, she said: “Russia poses a danger to our democracies. Our democracy is young and fragile, but that does not mean that states with longer democracies are not in danger.

More on Moldova

“We want to live in a democracy.”

In the build up to the election, Prime Minister Dorin Recean warned that Russia was spending “hundreds of millions” of euros as part of an alleged hybrid war to try to seize power, which he described as “the final battle for our country’s future”.

PAS leaders, including the party’s leader Igor Grosu, have called vote the most consequential in Moldova since independence.

Igor Grosu, president of Moldova's parliament and leader of the pro-EU Party of Action and Solidarity speaks to the media.
Pic: AP
Image:
Igor Grosu, president of Moldova’s parliament and leader of the pro-EU Party of Action and Solidarity speaks to the media.
Pic: AP

Moscow has always denied meddling and says the government is spreading anti-Russian hysteria to win votes.

Read more from Sky News:
‘I’m not so careful with what I say’ – Trump’s jaw-dropping week
This was the most abusive Ryder Cup in almost a century of matches

Election day itself was marked by a string of incidents, ranging from bomb threats at multiple polling stations abroad to cyber attacks on electoral and government infrastructure.

Police also detained three people suspected of plotting to cause unrest after the vote.

French President Emmanuel Macron hailed the apparent results of the elections as he said on X: “Despite attempts at interference and pressure, the choice of Moldovan citizens has been strongly affirmed.

“France stands alongside Moldova in its European project and its drive for freedom and sovereignty.”

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: “Moldova, you’ve done it again.”

Why would Russia want to interfere?

Moldova is landlocked between Ukraine and Romania.

The country of about 2.5 million people has spent recent years on a Westward path and gained candidate status to the EU in 2022, shortly after Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

If Moldova becomes a permanent EU member, it would mean a distancing from Moscow, as the EU has offered support to Ukraine and has put various sanctions in place against Russia.

However, candidate status does not guarantee a country membership to the EU.

In order for a country to become a full member, candidates must adopt democratic norms and undertake reforms to meet EU rules, regulations and standards.

All EU governments then have to agree before that country can be admitted as an EU member.

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Russia’s clear warning that it can easily chip away at Europe’s defences

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Russia's clear warning that it can easily chip away at Europe's defences

The brutality of Russia’s drone assaults on Ukraine’s towns and cities shows no let up.

“Savage strikes, a deliberate targeted terror” is how the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the latest overnight bombardment.

Some 595 attack drones and 48 missiles were involved and even if only a small fraction made it through Ukrainian air defences, the destruction – in Sumy and Odessa, Zaporizhia and Kyiv – is significant.

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Russia strikes Kyiv in major attack

Also overnight, Denmark reported yet more drone sightings.

It has not named Russia directly but after a week in which unidentified drones have resulted in the temporary shutdown of military and civilian airports, it is banning all civil drone flights and describing the threat as a hybrid attack.

Germany is also raising the alarm over unexplained drone activity along its border with Denmark.

Germany’s interior minister said on Saturday: “We are witnessing an arms race, an arms race between drone threats and drone defences. It is a race we cannot afford to lose.”

NATO is having to deploy extra assets to beef up its Baltic Sea defences and its Eastern flank.

European nations are working to establish a drone wall along their borders with Russia and Ukraine.

Germany is setting up a drone defence centre to make sure it has what it needs to protect itself.

The Kremlin is forcing NATO to divert assets to protect its airspace and sub-sea infrastructure at a time when Europe is trying to work out how best to support and finance Ukraine.

Read more:
Putin’s top diplomat issues warning
Why Trump has made a U-turn

With drones an inexpensive element of its hybrid warfare arsenal, Russia is sending a clear warning that it can relatively easily chip away at Europe’s defences and that Europe had better focus on protecting itself.

“If NATO begins to look too rattled, that actually is encouragement for Putin precisely to step up the pressure,” says Mark Galeotti, a specialist in Russian security. “So really we need to be holding our nerve.

“Yes, reserving the right to shoot things down that look like direct threats, but otherwise actually talking down, not talking up, the nature of the threat while of course we arm so that we are even more prepared.”

Last week, Estonia said its fighter jets had escorted three Russian MIG fighter jets out of their airspace after a 12-minute incursion, which Russia denies ever took place.

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Russia denies violating Estonia airspace amid NATO outrage

On Saturday, Estonia pledged €10m (£8.7m) to NATO’s “Prioritised Ukraine Requirement List” or PURL programme, which sees US-produced weapons, paid for by NATO’s European partners, fast-tracked to Ukraine.

Zelenskyy posted on Sunday after speaking with the NATO secretary general that PURL is moving forward well. And that is just what Russia is trying to prevent.

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