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Since the local elections Reform UK has had no shortage of good polls.

But a new one suggests Nigel Farage’s party has a chance not only of winning the next election, but of claiming a decent Commons majority, too.

In February, Reform topped a Sky News/YouGov poll for the first time, with Nigel Farage’s party edging in front on 25%, Labour pushed into second on 24%, with the Tories on 21%.

But a fresh one from Ipsos puts Reform on 34%, nine points ahead of Labour on 25%, with the Conservatives a distant third on 15%.

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Zia Yusuf: I sent a tweet I regretted

While the other parties are flatlining, Reform appears to be pushing boundaries.

Were these figures to be replicated across the country at a general election, with every constituency behaving the same way, then Reform could win as many as 340 seats, giving it a majority of 30, Sky News analysis suggests.

Labour could be reduced to 176 seats, down 236 on last year’s election, while the Tories would hit a record low of 12 seats.

But polling should always be taken with a pinch of salt and with the firm acknowledgement that there is not an election coming any time soon.

Conservative backbenchers might also tell you publicly that opinion polls are notoriously difficult to translate into seat numbers because voting percentages in individual constituencies can vary hugely from the overall average.

But the truth is that the symbolism of Reform UK topping another poll is likely to be noticed by MPs from all parties, especially backbench Conservatives who have actively been hoping their leader, Kemi Badenoch, can help them climb the polls and bring the party back into public favour.

Politics is a brutal game and when it comes to toppling underwhelming party leaders, the Tories are more ruthless than most. One wonders how many of these polls Mrs Badenoch’s party will allow her to endure.

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Reeves takes aim at Reform UK

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This poll is also a warning to Labour.

As the party approaches a year since its major victory, it will not have much to celebrate if these numbers are anything to go by.

According to this survey, only 19% are satisfied with the job Sir Keir Starmer is doing as prime minister, with 73% dissatisfied.

And the figure of 25% of voters intending to vote Labour is a level not seen since October 2019.

While abstract to much of the public, polling can often shape not only the chatter inside Westminster but how and when plots by MPs begin.

For Reform UK, this is a much-needed morale boost after a surprise resignation by their former Chairman Zia Yusuf, and then an almost immediate U-turn back into the party.

And Kemi Badenoch – who said during her leadership campaign that the Conservatives needed to go back to first principles and that this would take time – will be wondering, seven-and-a-half months after winning the leadership, how much time she really has left.

Ipsos interviewed a representative probability sample of 1,180 British adults aged 18+, via the Ipsos UK KnowledgePanel. Data was collected between 30 May-4 June 2025.

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Graham Linehan arrest: Met Police chief says officers ‘in impossible position and should not be policing culture war debates’

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Graham Linehan arrest: Met Police chief says officers 'in impossible position and should not be policing culture war debates'

Met Police Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley has said his officers should not be “policing toxic culture wars debates” as he responded to his force’s arrest of Father Ted writer Graham Linehan over anti-trans posts.

The UK’s top police officer said his officers are in an “impossible position”, adding that he has offered to provide suggestions to the Home Office about clarifying the law and policy.

“Greater clarity and common sense would enable us to limit the resources we dedicate to tackling online statements to those cases creating real threats in the real world,” he said.

Mr Rowley added that the Metropolitan police will be more selective about what social media posts it should investigate in future.

“We will be putting in place a more stringent triaging process to make sure only the most serious cases are taken forward in future – where there is a clear risk of harm or disorder.”

Sir Mark Rowley (left) has waded into the controversy surrounding online posts by Graham Linehan (right). File pic: PA
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Sir Mark Rowley (left) has waded into the controversy surrounding online posts by Graham Linehan (right). File pic: PA

It comes hours after health secretary Wes Streeting told Sky News the government needs to look at whether police are “getting the balance right”.

Linehan, who also created the Black Books and The IT Crowd comedies, said on Tuesday he was arrested at Heathrow Airport over posts on X sharing his views on trans rights.

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The health secretary told Sky News Breakfast with Wilfred Frost that he can’t comment on the specifics of the case, as operational police decisions are “rightly independent of politicians”.

However, Mr Streeting said more generally that the government would rather see “police on the streets rather than policing tweets”.

The cabinet member added: “It’s the easiest thing in the world for people to criticise the police, but they are enforcing laws that parliament has passed and asked them to enforce.

“So if we haven’t got the balance right, as Parliament over successive governments, that is something that we need to look at because the Home Secretary is very clear about what her priorities are”.

He said that those priorities are neighbourhood policing and keeping borders safe.

Writing on Substack, Lineham said that after flying into the UK from Arizona, he was detained by five armed officers at Heathrow Airport and put in a cell before being questioned over posts published on X in April.

He added that officials became concerned for his health after taking his blood pressure, and he was taken to hospital.

The arrest has drawn criticism from opposition politicians.

Shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick said the incident was “ridiculous and a complete waste of police time”.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said he would raise the case when he gives evidence to the House Judiciary Committee in Washington on free speech in the UK during a hearing on Wednesday, The Sun reported.

Nigel Farage will raise the case in Washington. Pic: PA
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Nigel Farage will raise the case in Washington. Pic: PA

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Harry Potter author JK Rowling, who has regularly shared her views on women’s rights in relation to transgender rights on social media, also waded into the row, posting on X: “What the f*** has the UK become? This is totalitarianism. Utterly deplorable.”

Sir Keir Starmer’s official spokesman said it was an operational matter for the police when asked about the arrest yesterday.

He added: “The prime minister and the home secretary have been clear about where their priorities for crime and policing are, and that’s tackling anti-social behaviour, shoplifting, street crime, as well as reducing serious violent crimes like knife crime and violence against women”.

Asked whether the government agreed with the Harry Potter author’s claim that the UK was now a “totalitarian” state, the spokesman said: “No.”

A Met Police spokeswoman confirmed an arrest was made at Heathrow Airport on Monday, but did not identify Linehan.

In a statement, the force said: “On Monday, 1 September at 1pm officers arrested a man at Heathrow Airport after he arrived on an inbound American Airlines flight.

“The man in his 50s was arrested on suspicion of inciting violence. This is in relation to posts on X.

“After being taken to police custody, officers became concerned for his health and he was taken to hospital. His condition is neither life-threatening nor life-changing.

“He has now been bailed pending further investigation.”

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OKX fined $2.6M in Netherlands for unlicensed operations ahead of MiCA rollout

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OKX fined .6M in Netherlands for unlicensed operations ahead of MiCA rollout

OKX fined .6M in Netherlands for unlicensed operations ahead of MiCA rollout

The Dutch National Bank fined OKX $2.6 million for operating in the Netherlands without registration before the EU’s MiCA rules took effect.

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Angela Rayner admits she should have paid more stamp duty on flat purchase – and considered resigning

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Angela Rayner admits she should have paid more stamp duty on flat purchase - and considered resigning

Angela Rayner has admitted she did not pay the right amount of stamp duty on the purchase of her second home and has referred herself to the independent adviser on ministerial standards. 

Speaking to Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast, the deputy prime minister became tearful as she claimed she received incorrect tax advice and spoke to her family about “packing it all in”.

Ms Rayner, who is also the housing secretary, has been under scrutiny after a report in The Daily Telegraph claimed she avoided £40,000 in stamp duty on a flat in Hove by removing her name from the deeds of another property in Greater Manchester.

In a lengthy statement released today, she said it was a “complex living arrangement” as her first home was sold to a trust following her divorce to provide stability for her teenage son, who has lifelong disabilities and is the sole beneficiary of the trust.

She said initial legal advice was that the standard rate of stamp duty applied but following media reports she sought expert counsel who said more tax is due.

She added that these matters were confidential but she applied to a court yesterday to get this lifted in the interests of public transparency.

In a subsequent interview with Beth Rigby, a visibly upset Ms Rayner said: “I’ve been in shock, really, because I thought I’d done everything properly, and I relied on the advice that I received and I’m devastated because I’ve always upheld the rules and always have felt proud to do that.

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“That it is devastating for me and the fact that the reason why those confidential clauses were in place was to protect my son, who, through no fault of his own, he’s vulnerable, he’s got this life changing, lifelong conditions and I don’t want him or anything to do with his day-to-day life, to be subjected to that level of scrutiny.”

Asked if she thought about quitting rather than disclose the details about her son, the cabinet minister added: “I spoke to my family about it. I spoke to my ex-husband, who has been an incredibly supportive person because he knows that all I’ve done is try and support my family and help them.”

PM backs Rayner

The statement dropped shortly before the first PMQs following the summer recess. Tory leader Kemi Badenoch said Sir Keir Starmer should fire his deputy.

“If he had backbone, he would sack her,” she said.

However Sir Keir defended Ms Rayner, saying he is “very proud to sit alongside” her.

“She has explained her personal circumstances in detail. She’s gone over and above in setting out the details, including yesterday afternoon asking a court to lift a confidentiality order in relation to her own son.”

He added: “I am very proud to sit alongside a deputy prime minister who is building 1.5m homes, who is bringing the biggest upgrade to workers rights in a generation, and has come from a working class background to become deputy prime minister of this country.”

Watch and listen to the full Electoral Dysfunction interview on Wednesday afternoon – www.podfollow.com/electoraldysfunction

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