It would be sensible to wait until the dust has settled before judging whether the US strikes on Iran were, in Donald Trump’s, words, “a spectacular military success”.
And when dropping bombs that weigh more than 13 tonnes each, there’s going to be a lot of dust.
The Pentagon says the operation against Iran’s three largest nuclear facilities involved 125 military aircraft, warships and submarines, including the largest operational strike by B2 bombers in history.
The B-2s dropped 14 of America’s most powerful GBU-57 “bunker buster” bombs on the Natanz uranium enrichment plant and Iran’s most sophisticated nuclear facility at Fordow.
The first time, according to the Pentagon, the weapons have been used in a military operation.
The Fordow complex, buried deep in a mountain, was the only site not previously damaged by Israeli strikes over the last few days.
Image: A bunker-busting bomb. File pic: US Air Force via AP
The use of multiple GBU-57 bombs at Fordow is telling.
Despite their size, it was known that one of them would be insufficient to penetrate 80+ metres of solid rock believed to shelter Iran’s most sophisticated uranium enrichment technology deep within Fordow.
Satellite images reveal three visible holes at two different strike points on the mountainside above the complex.
Image: A satellite image showing two clusters of holes at the Fordow nuclear site in Iran following US strikes on the facility. Pic: Maxar
The sites appear to be close to what may have been ventilation shafts – possibly chosen to maximise damage below and render the facility useless.
Using several of the bombs in the same location is likely designed to allow each to penetrate further than the first before detonating.
If nuclear facilities at Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow were destroyed – as the US claims – or even crippled, it would certainly halt Iran’s ability to enrich the Uranium needed to make a viable nuclear weapon.
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7:22
Clarke: The dust will need to settle before we know true impact of US strikes
But that’s not the same as preventing Iran’s ability to make a nuclear bomb. To do that, they need “weapons-grade” uranium; the necessary metal-shaping, explosives and timing technology needed to trigger nuclear fission in the bomb; and a mechanism for delivering it.
The facilities targeted in the US raid are dedicated to achieving the first objective. Taking naturally occurring uranium ore, which contains around 0.7% uranium 235 – the isotope needed for nuclear fission – and concentrating it.
The centrifuges you hear about are the tools needed to enrich U-235 to the 90% purity needed for a compact “implosion”-type warhead that can be delivered by a missile.
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0:36
Iranian media: ‘Part of Fordow’ attacked
And the reality is Iran’s centrifuges have been spinning for a long time.
United Nations nuclear inspectors warned in May that Iran had at least 408kg of uranium “enriched” to 60%.
Getting to that level represents 90% of the time and effort to get to 90% U-235. And those 400kg would yield enough of that weapons-grade uranium to make nine nuclear weapons, the inspectors concluded.
The second element is something Iran has also been working on for two decades.
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1:44
‘US strikes won’t end Iran’s nuclear programme’
Precisely shaping uranium metal and making shaped explosive charges to crush it in the right way to achieve “criticality”, the spark for the sub-atomic chain reaction that releases the terrifying energy in a nuclear explosion.
In its recent bombing campaign, Israel is thought to have targeted facilities where Iranian nuclear scientists were doing some of that work.
But unlike the industrial processes needed to enrich uranium, these later steps can be carried out in laboratory-sized facilities. Easier to pack up and move, and easier to hide from prying eyes.
Image: 16 cargo trucks line up at the entrance of the Fordow nuclear site on 19 June. Pic: Maxar Technologies
Given that it’s understood Iran already moved enriched uranium out of Fordow ahead of the US strike, it’s far from certain that Iran has, in fact, lost its ability to make a bomb.
And while the strikes may have delayed the logistics, it’s possible they’ve emboldened a threatened Iran to intensify its warhead-making capability if it does still have one.
Making a more compact implosion-based warhead is not easy. There is debate among experts about how advanced Iran is along that road.
But if it felt sufficiently motivated, it does have other, less sophisticated nuclear options.
Even 60% enriched uranium, of which – remember – it has a lot, can be coaxed to criticality in a much larger, cruder nuclear device.
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A fierce warning from Britain’s defence secretary to Vladimir Putin to turn his spy ship away from UK waters or face the consequences was a very public attempt to deter the threat.
But unless John Healey backs his rhetoric up with a far more urgent push to rearm – and to rebuild wider national resilience – he risks his words ringing as hollow as his military.
The defence secretary on Wednesday repeated government plans to increase defence spending and work with NATO allies to bolster European security.
Image: Russian Ship Yantar transiting through the English Channel.
File pic: MOD
Instead of focusing purely on the threat, he also stressed how plans to buy weapons and build arms factories will create jobs and economic growth.
In a sign of the government’s priorities, job creation is typically the top line of any Ministry of Defence press release about its latest investment in missiles, drones and warships rather than why the equipment is vital to defend the nation.
I doubt expanding employment opportunities was the motivating factor in the 1930s when the UK converted car factories into Spitfire production lines to prepare for war with Nazi Germany.
Yet communicating to the public what war readiness really means must surely be just as important today.
Image: Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. Pic: Reuters
Mr Healey also chose this moment of national peril to attempt to score political points by criticising the previous Conservative government for hollowing out the armed forces – when the military was left in a similarly underfunded state during the last Labour government.
A report by a group of MPs, released on the same day as Mr Healey rattled his sabre at Russia, underlined the scale of the challenge the UK faces.
Image: HMS Somerset flanking Russian ship Yantar near UK waters. on January 22, 2025.
File pic: Royal Navy/PA
It accused the government of lacking a national plan to defend itself from attack.
The Defence Select Committee also warned that Mr Healey, Sir Keir Starmer and the rest of the cabinet are moving at a “glacial” pace to fix the problem and are failing to launch a “national conversation on defence and security” – something the prime minister had promised last year.
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The report backed up the findings of a wargame podcast by Sky News and Tortoise that simulated what might happen if Russia launched waves of missile strikes against the UK.
The series showed how successive defence cuts since the end of the Cold War means the army, navy and air force are woefully equipped to defend the home front.
But credible national defences also require the wider country to be prepared for war.
A set of plans setting out what must happen in the transition from peace to war was quietly shelved at the start of this century, so there no longer exists a rehearsed and resourced system to ensure local authorities, businesses and the wider population know what to do.
Image: John Healey.
Pic: PA
Mr Healey revealed that the Russian spy ship had directed a laser light presumably to dazzle pilots of a Royal Air Force reconnaissance aircraft that was tracking it.
“That Russian action is deeply dangerous,” he said.
“So, my message to Russia and to Putin, is this: We see you. We know what you are doing. And if Yantar travels south this week, we are ready.”
He did not spell out what this might mean but it could include attempts to block the Russian vessel’s passage, or even fire warning shots to force it to retreat.
Image: The Russian ship Yantar is docked in Buenos Aires in 2017
Pic: David Fernandez/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
However, any direct engagement could trigger a retaliation from Moscow.
For now, the Russian ship – fitted with spying equipment to monitor critical national infrastructure such as communications cables on the seabed – has moved away from the UK coast. It was at its closest between 5 and 11 November.
The military is still tracking its movements closely in case the ship returns.
If you’re not at the table then you’re on the menu, as the saying goes.
That’s why Ukraine and Europe are so concerned about reports of a new peace plan being drawn up without them.
Their fears appear to be well-founded. The plan’s proposals reportedly include two major concessions for Kyiv – that it must give up territory in the Donbas which Russia has not yet seized, and that it must dramatically reduce its armed forces.
Sound familiar? That’s because it is. These are two of Vladimir Putin’s long-held, key demands for peace.
The ‘new’ peace plan represents the latest about-turn from the Trump administration on how it approaches the conflict.
After the failure of the Alaska summit, and last month’s fractious phone call between Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and US secretary of state Marco Rubio (which led to the cancellation of a second summit in Budapest and US sanctions on Russian oil), it seemed like Ukraine had finally convinced Donald Trump to change tack.
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Image: Donald Trump meeting Vladimir Putin in Alaska in August. Pic: AP
Instead of showing Moscow patience, he began applying pressure in the hope of forcing Russia to make concessions and to meet Ukraine somewhere in the middle.
But now it’s all change once again.
The key player seems to have been Kirill Dmitriev – the Kremlin’s investment envoy and a close ally of Vladimir Putin – who has operated as Steve Witkoff’s opposite number in peace negotiations.
Image: (l-r) Kirill Dmitriev and special envoy Steve Witkoff in St Petersburg in April 2025. Pic: Kremlin Pool Photo/AP
Whenever the US special envoy has been in Moscow this year, Dmitriev has always been close by. He is Putin’s Witkoff whisperer.
After the Lavrov-Rubio bust-up, Dmitriev was sent to Miami to supposedly patch things up through Witkoff. He did more than, it seems.
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10:07
Cheat Sheet: Russian spy ship and secret Ukraine peace deal
What’s reportedly emerged from their discussions is a 28-point peace plan that has been signed off by Donald Trump.
Will Ukraine go for it? I very much doubt it.
If the reports are correct, the US-Russia proposals merely represent the Kremlin’s long-held demands, and Ukraine’s long-held red lines. For Kyiv, it’s a non-starter.
But President Zelenskyy will have to tread carefully. Failure to show engagement could rile Donald Trump and trigger an ultimatum – accept this plan or you’re on your own.
Nearly 1,000 people from three villages on the Indonesian island of Java have been forced to flee to shelters after the eruption of its highest volcano.
More than 170 people, including climbers, porters, guides, tourism officials and tourists, were rescued after Mount Semeru erupted on Wednesday.
No casualties have been reported during the evacuation of those most at risk in the district of Lumajang, according to Indonesia‘s disaster mitigation agency.
The eruption sent searing clouds of hot ash and a mixture of rock, lava and gas up to eight miles (13km) down the volcano’s slopes, officials said.
Image: Pic: AP
They had set out to climb the 3,676m (12,060ft) peak on Wednesday and were stranded at the Ranu Kumbolo camping area before being taken to safety, Priatin Hadi Wijaya, head of the Centre for Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation, told reporters.
Hetty Triastuty, from the centre, warned climbers may have been exposed to volcanic ash.
A thick column of hot clouds rose 1.2 miles (2km) into the air during the eruptions, from midday to dusk on Wednesday, as scientists raised the volcano’s alert to the highest level, Indonesia’s geology agency chief Muhammad Wafid said.
Image: People were forced to leave their homes. Pic: AP
The eruptions that unfolded throughout the day blanketed several villages with thick volcanic ash and blocked out sunlight. Local media reported that two motorcyclists crashed due to hot ash on a bridge, resulting in severe burns to their bodies.
A series of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), defined by the British Geological Survey as “hot, ground-hugging flows of ash and debris” capable of moving at hundreds of metres per second, travelled down the mountain’s southern slope through the Besuk Kobokan River valley slopes, Mr Wafid said.
“Mount Semeru’s seismicity activity indicated that the eruption continued at a high level, with increasing numbers of signals indicating avalanches,” he added.
Mr Wafid warned people to keep away from an area along the Besuk Kobokan River, which is the path of the lava flow, adding that the five-mile (8km) danger zone may be expanded.
Seismic activity suggests the eruption will continue, officials said.
Mount Semeru, also known as Mahameru, has erupted numerous times in the past 200 years. But as with many of Indonesia’s 129 active volcanoes, tens of thousands of people continue to live nearby.
A total of 51 people died after Semeru’s last major eruption in December 2021, while several hundred others were burned in villages that were buried in layers of mud and more than 10,000 people were forced to flee their homes.
The Indonesian archipelago sits along the Pacific “Ring of Fire,” a horseshoe-shaped series of fault lines, and is prone to earthquakes and volcanic activity.