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The US president has given the Iranians a choice: negotiate or face devastating escalation.

The next move is down to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

He has spent his entire life trying to roll back American power and influence in the region.

Expecting him to negotiate with the US now, with B-2 bombers held to his head, is a tall order.

More likely, he will order some kind of retaliation – at least for now.

He will want to deter Donald Trump from launching more attacks and may calculate that killing Americans is the best way of doing so.

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Hegseth: ‘World should listen to Trump’

The ayatollah knows that could drive a wedge between Trump and his MAGA supporters, who say America is getting drawn into yet another Middle Eastern war, risking US lives.

There are plenty of US targets for Iran to aim at, with bases throughout the Middle East: in Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia.

The Iranians could attack them directly with drones and missiles, or use proxies in the region, Iran-backed militias in Iraq, or the Houthis, based in Yemen.

Iran could threaten shipping and the oil industry in the Persian Gulf. If the Gulf becomes a war zone, expect a big hit to the global economy and the price of oil to rocket.

But all that would invite massive retaliation from the US. The Trump administration has spelt that out in no uncertain terms.

America has sent an awesome amount of firepower to the region: three aircraft carrier groups bristling with fighter jets and submarines loaded with cruise missiles.

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PM: ‘My focus is on de-escalation’

So the Iranians may instead go for the kind of asymmetric warfare they excel at. The UK could be in the firing line too. We could see Iranian terrorist attacks here in Britain.

One way or another, this is almost certain to escalate, but could it widen and draw other countries into the conflict?

Russia and Iran have a strategic partnership agreement, but it doesn’t require Russia to come to Tehran’s support.

Iran is also China’s closest ally in the Middle East, but Beijing is also likely to sit this one out and watch from the sidelines.

Wars have unintended consequences, but there are strong reasons for other powers to avoid becoming involved in this one.

Read more:
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Iran may still have ability to make nuclear bomb

Looking further ahead, there are two competing priorities to watch. For Iran’s leadership, it is all about survival, to absorb the blows and live to fight another day, and eventually build the bomb if it can, to stop this ever happening to them again.

And Israel is equally determined that will not happen.

One method would be regime change in Iran, but its leadership is proving resilient so far, despite the mounting challenges it faces.

Instead, Israel faces a long period of managing the threat posed by Iran.

It will need to monitor the Iranians, watching for signs they are developing their missile programme, meddling in the region or reviving their nuclear project, and cut them down to size when necessary.

That could mean years more of military action and could be hugely costly for Israel and its backers, the US taxpayers.

In summary, Iran’s leadership is in a very tight spot and is likely to lash out, but the future will not be a walk in the park for Israel, either, while there are big risks for America, too.

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22 killed after suicide bomber opens fire at church in Syria – and then detonates explosive vest

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22 killed after suicide bomber opens fire at church in Syria - and then detonates explosive vest

At least 22 people have been killed after a suicide bomber opened fire at a church in Syria – and then detonated an explosive vest.

This is the first such incident since Bashar al Assad was toppled in December, and officials claim the attacker was a member of Islamic State.

It happened at a Greek Orthodox church in Damascus, with estimates suggesting that 350 worshippers were praying there at the time.

Pic: White Helmets via Reuters
Image:
Pic: White Helmets via Reuters

Witnesses said the perpetrator had his face covered when he began shooting – and blew himself up as crowds attempted to remove him from the building.

A security source told Reuters that two men were involved in the attack, with a priest saying he saw a second gunman at the entrance.

Officials say 63 people were injured, and children were among the casualties.

Syria’s information minister, Hamza Mostafa, condemned the terrorist attack – writing on X: “This cowardly act goes against the civic values that bring us together.

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“We will not back down from our commitment to equal citizenship… and we also affirm the state’s pledge to exert all its efforts to combat criminal organisations.”

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Pic: Reuters
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Pic: Reuters

Reports suggest that IS has attempted to attack several churches in Syria since Assad fell, but this is the first time they have succeeded.

Footage filmed by Syria’s civil defence, the White Helmets, showed scenes of destruction inside the church – including bloodied floors and shattered pews.

The Greek foreign ministry says it “unequivocally condemns the abhorrent terrorist suicide bombing”, and called on Syria “to guarantee the safety” of Christians with new measures.

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Bride shot dead on wedding day in south of France, reports say

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Bride shot dead on wedding day in south of France, reports say

A bride was shot dead on her wedding day in the south of France after she and her groom were targeted by hooded and armed attackers, according to local media.

The pair were leaving the party in a car along with a 13-year-old child when they were shot at, reports said.

Prosecutors have opened an investigation for “murder and attempted murder by an organised gang”.

The 27-year-old bride was fatally shot. One of the attackers was also killed after being struck by the bride and groom’s car as they tried to escape the ambush, French newspaper Le Figaro reports.

The incident reportedly happened in the village of Goult near the southeast French city of Avignon.

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Three people were injured: the groom, his sister and the 13-year-old child, Le Figaro reported.

Goult’s mayor Didier Perello said he believed the attack was “targeted”, adding that he was “angry, revolted, in shock”, in comments reported by the newspaper.

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Stunning first images from powerful space telescope show new ‘peek of cosmos’

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Stunning first images from powerful space telescope show new 'peek of cosmos'

Stunning images showing distant parts of the universe – including one of a region situated thousands of light years from Earth – have been captured by a powerful new telescope.

The camera at the Vera C Rubin Observatory in Chile is expected to reveal new details from space on an unprecedented scale as it makes further observations during the next decade.

Scientists expect it to chart thousands of asteroids not previously identified – and believe it will discover within months whether there is a ninth planet in our solar system.

The new images show the light from millions of stars and galaxies in observations which took the world’s largest and most powerful camera only 10 hours to complete.

One image shows a mosaic of the Trifid and Lagoon nebulae, a star-forming region which is 9,000 light years from Earth.

A single light year is the distance light travels in 12 months. In space, it “zips through at 186,000 miles per second and 5.88 trillion miles per year”, says NASA.

A cluster of galaxies in the Virgo cluster.
Pic: NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory
Image:
Galaxies pictured in the Virgo Cluster. Pic: NSF-DOE Vera C Rubin Observatory

Another image shows thousands of galaxies in the Virgo Cluster, in what scientists said offers just a “peek at the cosmos”.

The observatory is jointly funded by the National Science Foundation, an independent agency of the US government.

A cluster of galaxies including spiral galaxies in the vast Virgo cluster. 
Pic: NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory
Image:
The first images offer a small taste of what might come. Pic: NSF-DOE Vera C Rubin Observatory

The foundation’s chief of staff Brian Stone told CNN the observatory “will capture more information about our universe than all optical telescopes throughout history combined”.

Rubin has been built on a mountain in the Andes, a region in central Chile which is also home to other observatories due to its dry air and dark skies.

The telescope’s work will “capture the cosmos in exquisite detail” as it repeatedly scans the sky for 10 years to “create an ultra-wide, ultra-high-definition time-lapse record of our universe”.

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Scientists in the UK will be working in partnership with the teams at Rubin to help process the detailed information and images captured by the telescope.

The National Science Foundation is expected to release more images and video from Rubin’s initial work later on Monday.

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