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Donald Trump’s decision to attack Iran could trigger a wider regional or even global war, but much will hinge on how Russia and China – Tehran’s most powerful allies – respond.

Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian foreign minister, said he will hold “serious consultations” with Vladimir Putin on Monday morning in Moscow.

His country is also in contact with Beijing.

Israel-Iran live: ‘Incredible success’ of US strikes on Iran hailed by Hegseth

Russian President Vladimir Putin at a signing ceremony with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Moscow in January 2025. Pic: Reuters
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Russian President Vladimir Putin at a signing ceremony with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Moscow in January 2025. Pic: Reuters

Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are regarded by Western allies as a new axis of authoritarian powers, increasingly aligned and supportive of each other.

Donald Trump, though, has broken ranks from his country’s traditional democratic partners to forge a closer relationship with Mr Putin than any other US leader in recent years.

How much that might affect the Kremlin’s calculations, as Moscow weighs up how to respond to his actions in Iran, adds a new layer of unpredictability to the crisis.

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Iran’s FM to meet Putin

Another limiting factor is the Russian military’s physical capacity – should it wish – to bolster Iran with military support given its war in Ukraine.

Unlike the NATO alliance, there is no formal agreement between Moscow, Beijing, Tehran, and Pyongyang to come to each other’s assistance in a crisis.

However, the weakening of one member of the quartet would impact on the vital national interests of the other three, making it mutually beneficial to help each other out – including with military force or at the very least by supplying weapons.

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Iran threatens American soldiers and citizens

Iran has little choice but to retaliate directly against the United States after three of its main nuclear facilities were struck overnight.

But its ability to launch ballistic missiles and drones has been severely degraded by waves of Israeli strikes since Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu went to war with Iran a week and a half ago.

Read more:
What we know about US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities
Analysis: Has Iran lost its ability to make a nuclear bomb

A billboard with an illustration of Iranians supporting their country is seen on a street in Tehran. Pic: Reuters
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A billboard with an illustration of Iranians supporting their country is seen on a street in Tehran. Pic: Reuters

What are Iran’s options?

US bases, warships, and aircraft across the region are well within range of Iranian missiles and drones, but the Pentagon has significantly strengthened its air defences in anticipation of an Iranian counterattack.

There are plenty of softer targets, though, such as American embassies or other diplomatic missions.

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Hegseth: ‘World should listen to Trump’

Iran could also choose to mine the Strait of Hormuz – a move that would have global ramifications by disrupting the flow of large amounts of oil and gas, as well as other trade.

In addition, the military assets of American allies could be viewed as legitimate targets.

The UK has said it played no part in the US attack.

But Britain’s Ministry of Defence has further increased “force protection” measures for its military bases and personnel in the Middle East to their highest level in the wake of the US strikes, it is understood.

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Trump: Iran strikes ‘spectacular success’

What was hit in US attack?

In an operation that has been in the planning for years, American B-2 stealth bombers dropped enormous bunker-busting bombs – the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator – on the Fordow nuclear fuel enrichment plant, around 70 miles (110km) southwest of Tehran.

It was built under a mountain – about 80 to 90 metres beneath the ground – to be beyond the reach of Israel’s armed forces. Only the US Air Force carries munitions large enough to penetrate the rock, earth and concrete to inflict meaningful damage.

A satellite image from Maxar showing a cluster of holes at the Fordow nuclear facility in Iran following US strikes. Pic: Maxar
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Satellite imagery shows the Fordow nuclear site after US strikes. Pic: Maxar

Also targeted with the enormous munitions was Iran’s main uranium enrichment facility at Natanz, 155 miles (250km) southeast of the Iranian capital.

In addition, US submarines launched TLAM cruise missiles against a site outside the city of Isfahan, which is 260 miles (420km) south of Tehran. Near-bomb-grade nuclear fuel is thought to be stored here.

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Inside a top secret nuclear weapons site

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN’s nuclear watchdog, however, said the six buildings at Isfahan that were hit contained little or no nuclear material.

Mr Trump has said he ordered the attack to destroy Iran’s ability to enrich uranium to a level that could be used to make a nuclear bomb. Tehran has always insisted its nuclear programme is purely for civilian purposes.

Analysts warn, though, that it would be very difficult to stop the Iranian nuclear programme through military action alone and that such a move may spur Iran to accelerate efforts to make a bomb if it has managed to protect key components.

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The Russian foreign ministry on Sunday strongly condemned the American strikes against Iranian nuclear sites as a “dangerous escalation” that could further undermine “regional and global security”.

“The risk of an escalation of conflict in the Middle East already beset by multiple crises, has increased significantly,” it said in a statement.

Last week, the Russian government warned the US against joining Israel’s war in Iran, saying this “would be an extremely dangerous step with truly unpredictable negative consequences”.

The remarks came after Mr Putin held a call with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

It means the Russian government in particular – given Tehran’s military support to Moscow in the Russian invasion of Ukraine – faces an urgent decision about how to support Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, whose very existence is under threat from Israel.

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Donald Trump reveals when – and where – he will meet Putin for Ukraine talks

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Donald Trump reveals when - and where - he will meet Putin for Ukraine talks

Donald Trump has announced his “highly anticipated” meeting with Vladimir Putin will take place next Friday in the US state of Alaska.

The two presidents are expected to discuss the war in Ukraine – with the talks potentially leading to a breakthrough in Mr Trump’s effort to end the conflict.

But there’s no guarantee it will stop the fighting since Moscow and Kyiv remain far apart on their conditions for peace.

Earlier, the US president told reporters “we’re getting very close to a deal” that would end the war.

Mr Trump added there will be “some swapping of territories to the betterment of both sides”.

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‘I’m not against meeting Zelenskyy’

The meeting between the two leaders will be the first US-Russia summit since 2021, when former US President Joe Biden met Mr Putin in Switzerland.

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Mr Trump wrote on Truth Social: “The highly anticipated meeting between myself, as President of the United States of America, and President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, will take place next Friday, August 15, 2025, in the Great State of Alaska. Further details to follow. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

The meeting was also confirmed by Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov, who said the leaders will “focus on discussing options for achieving a long-term peaceful resolution to the Ukrainian crisis”.

He added that the two presidents could meet in Russia in future and that an invitation has already been extended to Mr Trump.

Yesterday, Mr Trump had told reporters at the White House that he couldn’t announce where or when the meeting would take place but he would do so soon.

He also suggested that his meeting with the Russian leader could come before any discussion involving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

“We’re going to have a meeting with Russia, start off with Russia. And we’ll announce a location. I think the location will be a very popular one,” Mr Trump said.

The US president added: “President Putin, I believe, wants to see peace, and Zelenskyy wants to see peace … in all fairness to President Zelenskyy, he’s getting everything he needs to, assuming we get something done.”

Read more:
Russia reacts to Trump talks plan
JD Vance raises concerns about free speech in UK

Donald Trump, right, and Vladimir Putin at a summit in Vietnam in 2017. Pic: Reuters
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Donald Trump, right, and Vladimir Putin at a summit in Vietnam in 2017. Pic: Reuters

Territory to form part of talks

Speaking about the role that territory will play in the peace talks, Mr Trump said: “You’re looking at a territory that’s been fought over for three-and-a-half years. A lot of Russians have died. A lot of Ukrainians have died.

“So we’re looking at that, but we’re actually looking to get some back, and some swapping.

“It’s complicated, actually. Nothing is easy. It’s very complicated. But we’re going to get some back.

“We’re going to get some switched. There’ll be some swapping of territories to the betterment of both.”

Analysts, including some close to the Kremlin, have suggested that Russia could offer to give up territory it controls outside of the four regions it claims to have annexed.

Pressed on if this was the last chance to make a major peace deal, Mr Trump said: “I don’t like using the term last chance … when those guns start going off, it’s awfully tough to get them to stop.”

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Trump says he will meet Putin

Western officials ‘to meet in UK’

Meanwhile, senior officials from the US, Ukraine and several European countries are due to meet in the UK this weekend to try and reach common positions ahead of the Trump-Putin meeting, according to Axios.

Ukraine and several NATO allies are reported to be privately concerned that Mr Trump might agree to Mr Putin’s proposals for ending the war without taking their positions into consideration.

Since his return to the White House in January, Mr Trump has moved to mend relations with Russia and sought to end the war – with public comments veering between admiration and sharp criticism of Mr Putin.

In a sign of his growing frustration with Russia’s refusal to halt its military offensive, Mr Trump had threatened to impose new sanctions and tariffs against Moscow – and countries that buy its exports – unless the Kremlin agreed to end the conflict.

A deadline was set for yesterday, but it is unclear whether these sanctions are taking effect, or if they will be delayed or cancelled in light of the talks.

Ukrainian servicemen of the 148th artillery brigade load ammunition into a M777 howitzer before firing in Zaporizhzhia.
Pic: AP
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Ukrainian servicemen of the 148th artillery brigade load ammunition into a M777 howitzer before firing in Zaporizhzhia.
Pic: AP

War grinds on ahead of talks

The meeting has been arranged as Russia’s bigger army is slowly advancing deeper into Ukraine at great cost in troops and armour while it relentlessly bombards Ukrainian cities.

Ukrainian forces are locked in intense battles along the 620-mile frontline that snakes from northeast to southeast Ukraine.

The Pokrovsk area of the eastern Donetsk region is taking the brunt of punishment as Russia seeks to break out into the neighbouring Dnipropetrovsk region.

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Tangled parachutes and chaotic crowds: The dangers posed by airdrops in Gaza

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Tangled parachutes and chaotic crowds: The dangers posed by airdrops in Gaza

Five days before he was killed by a falling aid package, father-of-two Uday al Qaraan called on world leaders to open Gaza’s borders to food – and criticised the use of airdrops.

“This isn’t aid delivery,” said the 32-year-old medic as a crowd of children rummaged through the remains of an airdrop behind him. “This is humiliation.”

Using footage from social media, satellite imagery, eyewitness testimony and flight tracking data, Sky News has examined the dangers posed by airdrops – and just how little difference they are making to Gaza’s hunger crisis.

A tangled parachute and a crowd in chaos

Based on six videos of the airdrop that killed Uday, we were able to locate the incident to a tent camp on the coast of central Gaza.

We determined that the drop occurred at approximately 11.50am on 4 August, based on metadata from these videos shared by three eyewitnesses.

Flight tracking data shows that only one aid plane, a UAE Armed Forces C-130 Hercules, was in the area at that time.

Footage from the ground shows 12 pallets falling from the plane. The four lowest parachutes soon become tangled, and begin to fall in pairs.

As a crowd surges towards the landing zone, a gunshot rings out. Nine more follow over a 90-second period.

Sakhr al Qaraan, an eyewitness and Uday’s neighbour, says that Uday was among those running after the first pallet to land.

“He didn’t see the other pallet it was tangled up with, and it fell on him moments later,” says Sakhr.

“People ran to collect the aid in cold blood, devoid of humanity, and he suffocated under that damned blanket – under the feet of people who had lost all humanity.”

The scene descended into chaos as Palestinians, some armed, tussled over the limited food available.

By the time Uday was pulled from the crowd and rushed to hospital, it was too late.

The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to a request for comment.

Medic and father-of-two Uday al Qaraan, 32, was killed on 4 August by an aid package dropped from a UAE Armed Forces plane.
Image:
Medic and father-of-two Uday al Qaraan, 32, was killed on 4 August by an aid package dropped from a UAE Armed Forces plane.

Parachutes failed in half of airdrops analysed

This was not the first time that airdrops at this location had posed a threat to those on the ground.

The day before Uday was killed, the same plane had dropped aid over the site.

The footage below, shared by the UAE Armed Forces, shows the view from inside the plane. Just before the footage ends, it shows that one of the parachutes was broken.

Hisham al Armi recorded the scene from the ground. His video shows the broken parachute, as well as another that had failed completely.

Military planes dropped aid at the site on eight consecutive days between 30 July and 6 August. Sky News verified footage showing parachute failures during four of those eight airdrops.

Flight tracking data shows that almost all of the 67 aid flights over that period followed a similar route along the coast, which is densely packed with tent camps.

An Israel Defence Forces (IDF) official told Sky News that the airdrops are routed along the coast, because this is where much of Gaza’s population is now concentrated.

An IDF spokesperson added the Israeli military “takes all possible measures to mitigate the harm to uninvolved civilians”.

Hisham al Armi told Sky News he is grateful to the countries that donated the aid, but “the negatives outweigh the positives”.

“Fighting occurs when aid is dropped, and some people are killed … due to the crush and parachutes.”

Other dangers are also posed by the airdrops.

The footage below, taken on 29 July, shows Palestinians venturing into the sea in order to chase aid that had drifted over the water. The IDF has banned Palestinians from entering the sea.

One woman, a relative of Uday who witnessed his death, described the airdrops as the “airborne humiliation of the people”.

“There is not enough aid for them,” she said. “It creates problems among the people, and some are killed just to obtain a little aid. And most people don’t receive any aid, they remain hungry for days.”

Between 27 July and 1 August, Gaza received an estimated 1,505 tonnes of food aid per day via land routes – 533 tonnes short of what the UN’s food security agency says is needed to meet basic needs.

Based on flight tracking data, we estimated that airdrops added just 38 tonnes daily, 7% of the shortfall.

“The quantities involved are minuscule in terms of the scale of the need,” says Sam Rose, Gaza director of UNRWA, the UN agency previously responsible for distributing food in the territory.

UNRWA claims it has enough food stationed outside of Gaza to feed the population for three months, but that Israel has not allowed the agency to bring in any food since 2 March.

“We should be dealing with that rather than introducing something else which is costly, dangerous, undignified and somehow legitimises … the access regime by suggesting that we found a way round it through airdrops,” Rose says.

COGAT, the Israeli agency responsible for coordinating aid deliveries, referred Sky News to a statement in which it said there is “no limit on the amount of aid” allowed into Gaza.

An IDF spokesperson also denied restricting aid, and said the Israeli military “will continue to work in order to improve the humanitarian response in the Gaza Strip, along with the international community”.

In his interview five days before he was killed, Uday al Qaraan appealed to world leaders to open Gaza’s borders.

“What would happen if they just let the aid in?” he asked. “If you can fly planes and drop aid from the sky then you can break the siege, you can open a land crossing.”


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Trump vowed to end Ukraine war in first 24 hours of his presidency – nearly 200 days in, could he be close?

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Trump vowed to end Ukraine war in first 24 hours of his presidency  - nearly 200 days in, could he be close?

Seven hours is a long time in US politics.

At 10am, Donald Trump accused Russia of posing a threat to America’s national security.

By 5pm, Mr Trump said there was a “good prospect” of him meeting Vladimir Putin “soon”.

There had, he claimed, been “great progress” in talks between his special envoy Steve Witkoff and the Russian president.

It’s difficult to gauge the chances of a meeting between the two leaders without knowing what “great progress” means.

Is Russia “inclined” towards agreeing a ceasefire, as Ukraine’s president now claims?

Is Mr Putin prepared to meet with his Ukrainian foe, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, too?

The very fact that we’re asking those questions suggests something shifted on a day when there was no expectation of a breakthrough.

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Mr Trump repeatedly vowed to end the war within 24 hours of becoming president.

On day 198 of his presidency, he might, just might, be one step closer to achieving that.

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