Iraq’s delicate balancing act – where Iran-aligned militia have vowed to attack Americans

Published

2 months ago

June 23, 2025

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Iraq is no different to any other country in the region – anxiously waiting to see what happens next after America’s multiple bomb strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Where it differs is that Iraq, caught bang in the middle of the war between Israel and Iran, and now the United States, has to juggle its relationships with both Tehran and Washington DC.

The Shia Muslim-dominated government of Iraq is close to Iran, and Iran’s influence on Iraq cannot be underestimated.

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Shia militia groups in Iraq, while nominally answering to Baghdad, take much of their guidance from Tehran, so their positions must be taken into consideration by the Iraqi government.

At the same time, Iraq needs the United States because it provides stability and support in the region, and the US military remains the most potent force in stopping terror organisations like Islamic State from rejuvenating themselves.

There are at least 2,500 American personnel stationed in Iraq, and the US has major interests here, as it does across the Middle East and Gulf states.

That US presence itself poses problems – Iran has threatened to attack American interests and personnel across the region.

The US bases and personnel, like its airbase in Erbil in northern Iraq, could easily be attacked and are well within the distance of Iran’s short-range missiles.

Further, the home-based Iraqi Shia militias are already on record as saying they will attack bases and personnel if the United States were to join in Israel’s war with Iran, which has now happened.

Iraq is furious that its airspace has been used by Israel to attack Iran, but is powerless to do anything about it.

Equally, the Iraqi government’s writ does not run far with the militias, who could act independently, embarrassing the government, or worse, leading to attacks within Iraq itself.

In a press conference given by the US defence secretary and US chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, the message to Iran and its proxies here in Iraq and in Syria was that any attack on American assets would be “a very bad idea”.

They couldn’t be clearer in their warning.

President Trump, they pointed out, wants an end to the matter, but is more than prepared to carry out attacks on all hostile entities.

If Iran follows its publicly announced course of action to retaliate not just against Israel, but against American interests, military personnel, and even civilians here in Iraq and the wider region, it runs the risk of a serious degradation of the country if America were to strike back.

Given that Iraq must play this delicate balancing act between the two powers, ultimately, it doesn’t want to be dragged into the conflict.

What it wants – and needs – is for diplomacy to resume.

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Israel’s PM tries to get on front foot in propaganda war he knows he is losing

Published

5 hours ago

August 11, 2025

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Israel's PM tries to get on front foot in propaganda war he knows he is losing

Israel’s prime minister added more detail to his deeply controversial plans for military escalation in Gaza at a news conference with foreign media yesterday – despite the condemnation of the UN Security Council, which met in an emergency session and urged him to rethink.

Benjamin Netanyahu spoke of a “fairly short timetable” to establish designated “safe zones” for the one million or so set to be displaced from Gaza City.

He also vowed to seize and dismantle Hamas’s final strongholds there – in the central refugee camps, and in al Mawasi, along Gaza’s southwestern coast.

This, per Netanyahu, is the only way to destroy the terror group, which he claimed “subjugates Gazans, steals their food and shoots them when they try to move to safety”.

Al Mawasi is already home to a significant displaced population, most of whom live in tents cramped up against the Mediterranean Sea, in what is already a designated humanitarian zone.

If members of Hamas live among them, rooting them out will be hugely complicated and will involve significant civilian casualties. If the residents of Gaza City can’t evacuate south to al Mawasi, where will they go?

Netanyahu’s plan is to set up more aid distribution sites through the controversial Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) and to flood Gaza with food.

He claimed his policy was not one of forced starvation – describing particular photos of starving babies as “fake news”, and accusing the media of painting a false picture.

“The only ones who are being deliberately starved in Gaza are our hostages,” the prime minister claimed.

I asked Netanyahu how he would go about preventing the kinds of daily killings taking place at aid distribution points in the months since GHF has been operating.

Doctors Without Borders has described these incidents as deliberately orchestrated.

The prime minister said increasing the amount of aid heading into the Strip was the answer.

“And by the way, a lot of the firing was done by Hamas seeking to have a response by our forces,” he added. “And very often they didn’t, they held back. They stayed their own fire even though their own lives were on the line.”

This was Israel’s prime minister trying to get on the front foot in a propaganda war he acknowledged he was losing. He was loath to admit the presence of famine in Gaza.

It took two questions before he acknowledged there was “deprivation”, even if he would not be drawn on whether his 11-week total blockade of the strip earlier this year had played any role.

He recognises that the appalled response of the international community to the human cost of this war, and the accusations of war crimes and genocide which Israel so vehemently rejects, are a terrible look.

This was his attempt to reclaim the narrative.

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Defiant Netanyahu sets out plan for military escalation in Gaza – and describes photographs of starving babies as ‘fake news’

Published

12 hours ago

August 10, 2025