PM warns of ‘era of radical uncertainty’ – and says UK will increase defence spending
Sir Keir Starmer said the UK is set to increase spending on defence, security and resilience to 5% of GDP by 2035 to meet an “era of radical uncertainty” – but without promising any additional cash.
The move – part of a new spending pledge by the NATO alliance – was panned as deceptive “smoke and mirrors” by critics, who pointed to the very real risk of escalating conflict between Iran, the US and Israel, as well as Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Sky News the timeline for the increase was “very slow” and warned Russia could attack a NATO country within five years.
“In my view, this is slow because we believe that starting from 2030, Putin can have significantly greater capabilities,” he told chief presenter Mark Austin.
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‘Russia could attack a NATO country’
The prime minister, Donald Trump and the other leaders of NATO’s 32 member states are expected to approve the investment goal when they meet at a summit in The Hague, which opens later today.
It replaces a previous target to spend 2% of GDP purely on defence.
The announcement will be celebrated as a win for the US president, who has been demanding his allies spend more on their own defences instead of relying on American firepower.
Overnight, he claimed to have secured another success, declaring that Iran and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire – just hours after Iran launched missiles against two American military bases in retaliation to a US decision to attack three Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend.
Perhaps it will mean he will switch attention back to achieving a goal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, which will be another key focus of the gathering in the Dutch capital.
NATO planners have crunched the summit down to a short main session tomorrow, with a final communique much briefer than usual – all steps designed to reduce the chance of the US president leaving early.
He is already scheduled to arrive late and last this evening, provided he turns up.
There is huge nervousness about Mr Trump’s commitment to an alliance that has been the bedrock of European security since it was founded more than 75 years ago.
He is not a fan though, and has previously accused Europe and Canada of an overreliance on American firepower for their own security, calling for them to do more to defend themselves.
Trump is expected to join Starmer and fellow leader NATO leaders at The Hague. Pic: Reuters
This pressure has arguably been a bigger motivator in prompting certain allies to agree to spend more on their militaries than the threat they say is posed by Russia, Iran, China and North Korea.
Spain’s position could create friction this week. The Spanish prime minister, while agreeing to the new investment goal, has said his country is not obliged to meet it.
The UK was also slow to say yes – a stance that was at odds with a defence review endorsed by Sir Keir that was centred around a “NATO-first” policy.
As well as agreeing to the defence and security investment goal, the British government is also publishing a new national security strategy on Tuesday that will highlight the importance of a wider definition of what constitutes security, including energy, food and borders.
There will also be a focus on a whole-of-society approach to resilience in an echo of the UK’s Cold War past.
Preparations for the NATO summit at The Hague. Pic: Reuters
It described the commitment to invest in defence, security and national resilience as an aligning of “national security objectives and plans for economic growth in a way not seen since 1945”.
Sir Keir said: “We must navigate this era of radical uncertainty with agility, speed and a clear-eyed sense of the national interest to deliver security for working people and keep them safe.
“That’s why I have made the commitment to spend 5% of GDP on national security. This is an opportunity to deepen our commitment to NATO and drive greater investment in the nation’s wider security and resilience.”
The funding will be split, with 3.5% of GDP going on core defence and 1.5% on homeland security and national resilience – a new and so far less clearly defined criteria.
Progress on investment will be reviewed in 2029.
Starmer today met with Zelenskyy at Downing Street. Pic: Reuters
The defence goal is higher than the government’s current ambition to lift defence expenditure to 3% of GDP by 2034, from 2.3% currently.
The only solid commitment is to spend 2.6% on defence by 2027 – a figure that has been boosted by the addition of the whole of the budget for the intelligence agencies.
This level of intelligence spending had not previously been included and has drawn criticism from defence experts because it is not the same as tanks, artillery and troops.
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The government, in its statement, is now focusing on an even higher-sounding number, claiming that it will hit 4.1% of the new NATO target by 2027.
However, this is merely based on adding the new 1.5% spending goal for “resilience and security” to the already stated 2.6% defence spending pledge.
A Downing Street spokesperson was unable immediately to say how much of GDP is currently spent on whatever is included in the new resilience category.
It could include pre-announced investment in civil nuclear energy as well as infrastructure projects such as roads and railways.
For the UK, 1.5% of GDP is about £40bn – a significant chunk of national income.
Sir Ben Wallace, a former Conservative defence secretary, accused the government of “spin” over its spending pledge because it does not include any new money anytime soon.
“The threat to our country is real not spin,” he told Sky News.
“This government thinks it can use smoke and mirrors to deceive the public and Donald Trump. This is an insult to our troops who will see no significant new money. It fools no one.”
Victims of grooming gangs and modern slavery are being denied compensation by a government scheme because of their criminal records, Sky News has learned.
Analysis of official figures by Sky News’ Data & Forensics team shows more than 11,000 victims of crime over the last decade have been denied payouts because of their unspent convictions, including children.
The Criminal Injuries Compensation Authority can award money to victims of violent crime, including sexual abuse.
It is the only government compensation scheme for victims – for those unable to work due to injuries, the money can be vital.
But, if an applicant has a criminal record, they are automatically refused compensation with limited exceptions.
Those with unspent convictions sometimes receive reduced sums.
Sky News has found that at least 130 children with criminal records have received reduced awards over the last 10 years, including 50 victims of sex abuse, four victims of brain damage, and one child who lost sight in an eye.
This rule on unspent convictions is based on the idea that public funds should only compensate blameless victims of crime and not, for example, a gang member who was injured in a fight.
But many argue the policy punishes those who have been forced to offend by exploiters, as well as victims of child sexual abuse.
‘I was frustrated that I wasn’t being believed’
Arthur Sherry, 43, from Perranporth in Cornwall was regularly abused by his babysitter from the age of five, including suffering rape.
In 2008, he reported it to Devon and Cornwall Police, alongside two other victims. He alleges the police did not believe him, and charges were not brought against his abuser.
Arthur Sherry, who was abused as a child, says he was denied compensation because of his criminal record
Arthur became angry and descended into addiction as a “coping mechanism”, becoming suicidal, and was repeatedly arrested for minor offences, such as making false calls to the emergency services.
“I wasn’t getting support from any agencies, and no one asked me, ‘Why is this man ringing the emergency services all the time?'”
“It was a cry for help. I was frustrated that I wasn’t being believed.”
Eventually, Arthur’s abuser, Shaun Burton, was convicted of multiple offences against children, including 11 counts of indecency with a child in relation to Mr Sherry.
But when Arthur, who suffers from complex PTSD, subsequently tried to make a claim through the Criminal Injuries Compensation Authority in 2013, it was rejected because of his criminal record and because he submitted his application beyond CICA’s time limit.
He was not allowed to appeal the decision.
Arthur, aged 12 in the picture, was regularly abused by his babysitter, Shaun Burton, from the age of five
Many survivors of grooming gangs have criminal records due to being exploited and coerced.
While the government recently announced plans to disregard child prostitution convictions for these victims, many are urging authorities to go further and pardon all related offences.
Former victims’ commissioner Dame Vera Baird said: “They were not exercising their own free will and voluntarily committing crime, so there should be a discretion to look at that and say, ‘No, that wasn’t their fault’.
“They should get compensation for all the evil that was done to them by that gang.”
In 2022, the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse recommended that the government amend the Criminal Injuries Compensation Scheme so that “applicants with unspent convictions are not automatically excluded where offences are likely to be linked to the circumstances of their sexual abuse as a child”.
The government has refused to act on this recommendation.
However, Labour MP Sarah Champion has tabled an amendment to the upcoming Victims and Courts Bill, hoping to implement it, as well as widen eligibility to the scheme.
“Victims are seen as running a cannabis farm and get a conviction, before it actually turns out that they were a victim of modern slavery.
“These people, who are very clearly recognised as victims and survivors, aren’t getting the money that’s owed to them. The system is broken and the ministers need to get rid of it.”
‘I was frustrated that I wasn’t being believed,’ Arthur tells Sky News’ Alice Porter
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A government spokesperson said: “Last year, more than £164m was paid out under the Criminal Injuries Compensation Scheme to victims, and we are going further by removing the time limit for civil personal injury claims and doubling Home Office funding for services supporting adult victims and survivors of child sexual abuse.
“Changes to the way we compensate victims have been considered by successive governments, and our priority must always be to treat all victims of violence equally.”
Devon and Cornwall Police said: “Tackling sexual offending is a key priority for Devon & Cornwall Police and we are working hard to bring offenders to justice.
“We take reports of all sexual offences seriously and will carry out thorough investigations into reports, looking at all viable lines of enquiry.”
Nathan Gill was at Manchester airport, about to board a flight to Russia, when accepting bribes finally caught up with him.
Gill, the former leader of Reform UK Wales and a one-time member of the European Parliament, who on Friday was jailed for 10-a-half-years, was stopped by police before boarding and had his phone seized in 2021.
While they interrogated him, his home in Anglesey was raided, with detectives discovering more electronics and cash piles of €5,000 (£4,400) and $5,000 (£3,800) respectively.
Nathan Gill being questioned. Pic: Met Police
The evidence on Gill’s phone would damn him – he was in contact with a pro-Russian politician in Ukraine, Oleg Voloshyn, and had agreed to boost pro-Russia viewpoints in exchange for money.
Voloshyn would dictate the statement, and Gill would repeat it – in some cases, almost word for word – in the media or the European Parliament.
In one instance, Gill appeared on the now-banned Ukrainian TV channel, 112 Ukraine, which was known for its pro-Russian stance.
In the interview, he was critical of the Ukrainian decision to open criminal proceedings against Viktor Medvedchuk, the owner of the television channel and a personal friend of Vladimir Putin.
Nathan Gill. Pic: Met Police
Speaking to the outlet, he said he was “very concerned” about the investigation, and wondered whether it was meant to silence “opposition politicians”.
Prosecutors said messages on Gill’s phone showed that this was at his paymaster’s instruction, with Voloshyn offering a “reward” if he would say that it was unacceptable to persecute a person for their political convictions.
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Voloshyn also offered the MEP €2,000 (£1,750) if he would express concern that Mr Medvedchuk could no longer mediate with Russia on Ukraine’s behalf, the court heard.
He added that “V” – understood to be Mr Medvedchuk – did not believe Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had “true intentions to pursue a peace agenda”, prosecutors said.
Bundles of cash were recovered from Gill’s home. Pic: Met Police
Sure enough, Gill appeared on 112 Ukraine saying it was “very sad” that Mr Medvedchuk felt he no longer had Mr Zelensky’s backing to act as a mediator with Russia, and suggested that using him “would be a sensible thing to do”.
The messages traded in innuendo, referring to the exchange of “Xmas gifts” or “postcards” instead of money.
But as the pair grew more comfortable with each other, they bargained more explicitly, with the sum of “£5k” quoted for Gill’s work.
Dominic Murphy, head of Counter Terrorism Command at the Met Police, said Gill had also offered access to other MEPs.
“This is where we get into that slightly odd situation where it feels very much like a real effort to undermine democracy here,” he said.
“This is Nathan Gill reaching out to individuals that he knows, who are Brits, who might be willing to be paid to go and make speeches.”
Commander Murphy declined to name names, but said there was an ongoing investigation and that other people had been spoken to.
None of the pro-Brexit MEPs Gill allegedly approached have been interviewed under caution.
Pic: Met Police
Police confirmed there was no evidence to suggest Reform UK leader Nigel Farage was involved.
Gill was stopped at Manchester Airport on 13 September 2021, under schedule 3 of the Counter Terrorism and Borders Security Act 2019.
He offered police no explanation for his actions and answered no comment in a March 2022 police interview.
But the 52-year-old is believed to have had financial problems.
Mr Murphy added that while Gill appeared to have pro-Russian sympathies, he was primarily motivated by money.
The ex-MEP has been jailed for 10-and-a-half years after pleading guilty to eight counts of bribery between December 2018 and July 2019.
Following an investigation by counter-terrorism police, officers said they believe Gill likely took a minimum of £40,000 in cash and was offering to introduce other British MEPs so they could be bribed.
Voloshyn was picked up by the authorities on a trip to the US in 2021, which enabled the FBI to discover his end of the conversation.
He is now believed to be in Russia, but has been sanctioned by the UK government over allegations of trying to destabilise Ukraine.
Nathan Gill pleaded guilty to eight counts of bribery over pro-Russian statements. Including to media outlet 112 Ukraine. Pic: Met Police
He remains wanted in both Britain and Ukraine.
A Reform UK spokesman said: “Mr Gill’s actions were reprehensible, treasonous and unforgivable.
“We are glad that justice has been served and fully welcome the sentence Nathan Gill has received.”
Mr Farage, the Reform UK leader, said: “An investigation into Russian and Chinese influence over British politics would be welcome.”
The MP for Clacton previously described his former colleague as a “bad apple” and said he was “shocked” after Gill pleaded guilty to eight counts of bribery.
He said: “Any political party can find in their midst all sorts of terrible people.
“You can never, ever guarantee 100% that everyone you meet in your life, you shake hands with in the pub, is a good person.”
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