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First there was stonewalling, then the private complaints from MPs before a very public outburst that saw an eye-watering 127 MPs tell their prime minister they were going to defy him on a welfare vote.

Now, the inevitable climbdown has arrived, with Downing Street making a significant offer to rebels last night on their planned cuts to disability benefits.

A government with a massive 165-strong working majority, had an awakening on Thursday to the importance of parliament as it embarked on a humiliating climbdown after the private warnings of MPs to Downing Street fell on deaf ears.

It’s worth taking a beat to reflect on the enormity of this moment. Less than a year ago, the prime minister was walking into No. 10 having won a landslide, with a Labour majority not seen since the Blair era.

That he has been forced to retreat by angry foot soldiers so early in this premiership, despite having such a big majority, is simply unprecedented. No government has lost a vote at second reading – this basically the general principles of a bill – since 1986 (Thatcher’s shops bill) and that was the only occasion a government with a working majority lost a bill at the second reading in the entire 20th century.

It is obviously a humiliating blow to the authority of the prime minister from a parliamentary party that has felt ignored by Downing Street. And while No. 10 has finally moved – and quickly – to try to shut down the rebellion, the fallout is going to be felt long beyond this week.

Before we get into the problems for Starmer, I would like to acknowledge the predicament he’s in.

More on Sir Keir Starmer

Over the past 10 days, I have followed him to the G7 in Canada, where the Iran-Israel crisis, US-UK trade deal and Ukraine war were on the agenda, to Chequers at the weekend as he tried to deal with the US attack on Iran and all the risk it carried, and to the NATO summit this week in the Netherlands.

He could be forgiven for being furious with his operation for failing to contain the crisis when all his attention was on grave international matters.

He landed back in Westminster from the NATO summit on Wednesday night into a domestic battle that he really didn’t need but moved quickly to contain, signing off a plan that had been worked up this week in Downing Street to try to see of this rebellion.

What will the changes be?

At the time of writing this, the government is yet to officially announce the climbdown, but I expect it to be significant.

I understand the government is offering to keep personal independence payments, the benefits given to those who are disabled, unchanged for existing claimants, rowing back on an initial plan to take it away from hundreds of thousands of people by tightening the criteria for claiming.

I also understand the government will drop the cuts to the health element of universal credit for existing claimants, in changes that will cost an estimated £1.5bn – nearly a third of the savings the government has previously earmarked from these changes.

One senior parliamentary source told me on Thursday night they thought it was a “good package” with “generous concessions”, but said it was up to individual MPs to decide whether to withdraw their names from the amendment that would have torpedoed the welfare bill.

In the coming days, No. 10 will have to make the case to backbenchers and whittle down the rebellion in order to get the welfare bill passed on Tuesday. But it’s clear that No. 10 has given MPs a ladder to climb down.

But the bigger question is where does it leave the government and its party.

There is quiet fury from many MPs I have spoken to, angry at the No. 10 operation and critical of what they see as a “boy’s club”.

There has been criticism levelled at the PM’s chief of staff Morgan McSweeney, with MPs in seats facing challenge from the left rather than the right frustrated that the whole No. 10 strategy seems to be seeing off Reform, rather than look to the broader Labour base and threats from the Lib Dems or the Greens.

There is also much ire reserved for Rachel Reeves – interestingly Liz Kendall is escaping the criticism despite being the architect of the reforms – with MPs, already angry over winter fuel debacle, now in open revolt over the chancellor’s decision to force through these cuts ahead of the Spring Statement in March in order to help fill her fiscal black hole.

MPs felt talked down to

One Labour figure told me on Thursday the growing drumbeat in the party is that Reeves must go.

Another MP told me colleagues hated the cabinet ring around to try to persuade them to back down over welfare, saying more MPs ended up adding their names to the list because they felt talked down to.

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All of this needs work if the PM has any hope of rebuilding trust between his party and his operation.

There is also the problem of what flows from the concessions.

The chancellor will have to fund these concessions, and that could mean hard choices elsewhere. Will this mean that the government ends up doing less on reforming the two-child cap, or will it have to find welfare cuts elsewhere?

That flows into the third problem. In seeing off this rebellion No. 10 has contained MPs rather than converting them.

What the parliamentary party has seen is a government that, when pressed, be it on winter fuel or benefit cuts, will fold.

That will only serve to embolden MPs to fight again. In the immediate term, the government will hope it has seen off a potentially catastrophic defeat.

But seeing off the growing malaise around the Starmer administration just got a bit harder after this.

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Labour’s Lucy Powell will take a ‘submarine approach’ as deputy PM – for now

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Labour's Lucy Powell will take a 'submarine approach' as deputy PM - for now

Lucy Powell’s had quite the political comeback. Sacked from cabinet by the prime minister but weeks ago, she’s back with her own powerbase and voice at the top of the party as the deputy Labour leader.

She was not Keir Starmer‘s choice and, while the prime minister was quick to embrace her on Saturday as the result was announced, he is probably right to feel some unease about the outcome for a few different reasons.

For in Powell, the party has a new, alternative figurehead that sits outside of the government machine.

Politics live: Follow updates as Labour names new deputy leader

The PM congratulates Lucy Powell after she is announced as new deputy leader. Pic: PA
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The PM congratulates Lucy Powell after she is announced as new deputy leader. Pic: PA

She ran a campaign in which she pledged to be the voice of the membership to the leadership and the membership picked her. She will have serious influence on the National Executive Committee, and sit in the political cabinet.

What she won’t do is return to the cabinet table, which means that she has power and profile, but will remain an independent voice, free from collective cabinet responsibility.

More on Keir Starmer

As I understand it, Powell doesn’t want to destabilise the leadership – for now at least.

She will take a submarine approach when it comes to interventions around government policy rather than offering a running commentary on Starmer’s government and choose her battles.

That way, when she does weigh in, she is harder to ignore.

She could also over time become a lightning rod for discontent should the party’s fortunes remain as parlous as they are now.

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Powell aims to unite Labour Party

On Friday, Labour suffered a cataclysmic defeat in the Caerphilly by-election, coming third in a seat it has held for over a century as Labour endured their biggest ever drop in support in a Welsh by-election.

It’s a terrible omen for next May’s Sennedd election. Labour have been the governing party in Wales since the Senedd’s beginning in 1999. That could be about to change.

When I asked Keir Starmer about the loss on Friday, he didn’t try to deflect, saying: “I’m deeply disappointed by the results.”

When I asked him if it was a gut punch, he said: “I’m not going to suggest otherwise. I spoke to the first minister on Saturday morning, and clearly we need to reflect and regroup, and double down on the delivery, in Wales. And we clearly need to do much more.”

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Phillipson: Powell has my full support

Powell’s position now is that the party needs to pull together, get campaigning and try to build support with their voters.

But she is equally clear that this has to be down to delivery of the “national renewal” Labour promised voters in the election of 2024.

There will surely come a point, further down the road, where this new deputy leader will become more robust in her critique of the government if it fails to deliver and the party suffers.

This race has also exposed the ugliness in a party that is uneasy with its leadership and seems intent on infighting.

The constant briefing wars that emanate from Number 10 cascade down in what has been, at times, a dirty fight.

Lucy Powell accused Bridget Phillipson’s team of “throwing mud” and briefing against her in the Labour deputy leadership race on our Electoral Dysfunction podcast, while Phillipson also said she was at the sharp end of vicious smears.

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Powell hits back at claims she ‘can’t be trusted’

👉 Click here to listen to Electoral Dysfunction on your podcast app 👈

For all the talk on Saturday for coming together and unity, it is hard to see that materialising while doubts persist over Starmer’s leadership and while rivals, such as Powell’s close ally Andy Burnham, are waiting in the wings.

There is also the big question of apathy. Only 16.6% of party members, trade union members and affiliates chose to vote in this election, against 59% in 2020.

This is partly distorted because in the last leadership election, members were voting for both the leader and deputy leaders. But what it also suggests is disengagement from the wider Labour movement.

In 2020, there were 552,000 party members eligible to vote, out of a total membership which stood at 782,000, including union-affiliated members who are perhaps less likely to cast a vote.

This time around there were 970,000 eligible voters – but the Labour Party did not reveal how many actual party members cast a vote.

This might be because membership figures are dropping, and it didn’t want to reveal that information. At the end of last year, party membership stood at 332,000, which is around 200,000 members less than the end of 2019.

For now, Powell insists that she and Starmer will work as a team and the message from both Powell and the PM following her victory is that all of those party must put its shoulder to the wheel to try and see off the threat of Reform.

She is undoubtedly starting out as the party’s campaigner in chief, but I suspect she may become a far more critical – and dangerous – voice, if Starmer looks like he can’t get the party in good enough shape to win the next general election.

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Who is Labour’s new deputy leader Lucy Powell and what does she stand for?

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Who is Labour's new deputy leader Lucy Powell and what does she stand for?

Lucy Powell has been elected as the deputy leader of the Labour Party.

But who is she and what does she stand for?

Powell began her career in politics working for Labour MPs Glenda Jackson and Beverley Hughes.

She then worked for a pro-EU campaign group.

After that, she ran Ed Miliband’s successful Labour leadership campaign and was his deputy chief of staff until she was elected as the MP for Manchester Central in 2012.

She has been at the forefront of Labour politics for over a decade, serving under Ed Miliband, Jeremy Corbyn and Keir Starmer.

After Labour won the last general election, she was appointed as the leader of the House of Commons in Starmer’s cabinet.

But last month she was sacked in the cabinet reshuffle and came to be seen as the anti-Starmer candidate.

During the deputy leadership campaign, Powell promised to “provide a stronger, more independent voice” for members of the Labour Party.

And in her acceptance speech, she said the government hadn’t been bold enough, and that it needed to step up.

So how much of a problem is she going to be for Keir Starmer?

Her new role – and being outside the cabinet – means she will be free to criticise the government, which could make life more difficult for the prime minister.

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Powell will take a ‘submarine approach’ – for now

Powell has been outspoken about her desire for the government to lift the two child benefit cap – and also called for the country to work for the many and not the few – a Corbyn-era slogan – and that Labour must stop handing the megaphone over to Reform and letting them run away with it.

Starmer will be conscious that an MP he sacked not long ago is now in a powerful role able to speak freely and attack his decisions.

But Powell is not free from her own controversies.

In May, Lucy Powell called grooming gangs a dog whistle issue – something she later had to clarify after it caused outrage among campaigners and opposition parties.

She also vocally defended Labour’s unpopular cut to winter fuel allowance while in cabinet, before the government then U-turned on the policy – she then criticised the proposed welfare cuts after she was sacked from government.

Powell insists she wants to help Keir Starmer, providing constructive criticism and a voice for Labour members.

But will Keir Starmer see it that way?

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Twenty warnings for Sir Keir Starmer from new deputy leader Lucy Powell

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Twenty warnings for Sir Keir Starmer from new deputy leader Lucy Powell

Labour’s new deputy leader Lucy Powell promised to be Sir Keir Starmer’s ally.

Yet in her victory speech she criticised his government and its record no fewer than 20 times. And told him to raise his game, or else.

Politics live: Follow for updates as Labour names new deputy leader

Here’s what she said – and what she meant:

  1. “Division and hate are on the rise. Discontent and disillusionment widespread.” What she meant: The Labour government has been a huge disappointment.
  2. “The desire for change is impatient and palpable.” What she meant: You’ve had 16 months to deliver change – voters are saying, “Get on with it”.
  3. “We have to offer hope, to offer the big change the country’s crying out for.” What she meant: Stop tinkering. Get more radical. You’ve got a huge Commons majority, after all.
  4. “We must give a stronger sense of purpose, whose side we’re on and of our Labour values and beliefs.” What she meant: We’re not doing enough for working people or tackling inequality.
  5. “People feel that this government is not being bold enough in delivering the kind of change we promised.” What she meant: Our voters are deserting us because they don’t see change.
  6. “I’ll be a champion for all Labour values and boldness in everything we do.” What she meant: Watch out! I’m going to hound you and hold your feet to the fire!
  7. “We won’t win by trying to out-Reform Reform, but by building a broad progressive consensus.” What she meant: Stop the lurch to the Right on immigration. We’re better than that.
  8. “It starts with wrestling back the political megaphone and setting the agenda more strongly.” What she meant: We need to sharpen up our communication and selling our message.
  9. “We’ve let Farage and his ilk run away with it.” What she meant: The Reform UK leader is running rings round us in communicating and campaigning. We’re too sluggish and flat-footed.
  10. “For too long the country and the economy has worked in the interests of the few and not the many.” What she meant: Winter fuel payment cuts were a disaster and the two-child benefit cap has to go.
  11. “Trickle down economics hasn’t worked.” What she meant: No more tax cuts for the rich. It’s time for a wealth tax, for example, to redistribute wealth.
  12. “Life has just got harder and harder, less and less secure in work, in housing, in making ends meet.” What she meant: We’re failing to tackle the cost of living crisis and housing shortages.
  13. “The deep-seated inequalities that have widened in wealth in regions in class in health need fundamentally redressing.” What she meant: We’re failing to look after our “red wall” voters.
  14. “Re-unite our voter coalition and re-unite the country.” What she meant: Start governing for everyone, urban and rural, rich and poor, North and South. Stop neglecting poorer regions.
  15. “We need to step up.” What she meant: For goodness sake, sort out the chaos in 10 Downing. Stop blaming aides and civil servants and sacking them. Get a grip!
  16. Members and affiliates “don’t feel part of the conversation or party of the movement right now. And we have to change that.” What she meant: Stop ignoring and alienating activists, MPs and unions.
  17. “Unity and loyalty comes from collective purpose, not from command and control.” What she meant: Stop the control freakery in parliament and party management. It’ll backfire.
  18. “Debating, listening and hearing is not dissent. It’s all strength.” What she meant: Listen to your backbenchers and stop suspending them when they vote against policies like welfare cuts.
  19. “As your deputy, my commitment is to change the culture.” What she meant: I’m going to stand up for rebels and critics and force you to ditch the control freakery and bad decisions.
  20. “At the election 16 months ago the British people voted for change. I’m here to do everything I can to make that change a reality.” What she meant: Raise your game, or else!

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She said it all with a smile, but there was menace there.

As deputy leader, Lucy Powell was always going to be a critical friend. So there you go, prime minister. Here’s 20 things you need to do for her to be more friend than critic.

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