2025 MLB draft guide: One big question and latest intel for all 30 teams
-
Kiley McDaniel
It’s MLB draft week!
This year’s draft will take place July 13-14 in Atlanta as part of Major League Baseball’s All-Star Game festivities hosted by the Atlanta Braves.
As we approach the start of Round 1, here is one big question facing each of the 30 MLB teams.
Teams are listed in draft order.
More draft coverage: Mock draft 2.0 | Top 250 prospects
Watch: July 13 at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN
Day 1 picks: No. 1, No. 49, No. 80
Bonus pool: $16,597,800
One big question: With C.J. Abrams, James Wood, Brady House and MacKenzie Gore in the big leagues, do the Nats’ opt for LSU lefty Kade Anderson over prep shortstop Ethan Holliday due to how they see their competitive timeline?
The industry believes the Nats are down to Holliday or Anderson for the No. 1 overall pick, with a small chance of another player being the choice. Anderson could be in the big leagues next season while Holliday likely takes a few years, at least.
Last year’s draft was the first with a new scouting group in place. The Nats picked No. 10 overall, at the tail end of the top tier of talent, and opted to go underslot with a safer pick in SS Seaver King. They applied those savings to a riskier pick in prep SS Luke Dickerson, who has been a home run so far, already becoming a top 100 prospect.
While they are picking No. 1 this year, the top of this draft doesn’t stack up to last year’s edition. As a draft prospect, Anderson ranks behind the top pitchers in last year’s class, such as second overall pick Chase Burns and, for some teams, behind fifth overall pick Hagen Smith — so this situation isn’t wildly different to that of their top pick last year.
Day 1 picks: No. 2, No. 47, No. 79, No. 105
Bonus pool: $16,656,400
One big question: How hard will the Angels lean into taking quick-moving college prospects this year?
Under GM Perry Minasian, the Angels have prioritized taking potential quick movers and promoting them aggressively: Zach Neto, Nolan Schanuel, Christian Moore, Sam Bachman, and Ben Joyce are all early picks who are currently on the big league roster.
Rumors have been circulating all spring that Los Angeles will take one of the college lefties (LSU’s Kade Anderson, Florida State’s Jamie Arnold, Tennessee’s Liam Doyle) with the No. 2 overall pick and put that pitcher on the express train to L.A.
There were rumors last year that the Angeles considered prep shortstop Bryce Rainer with their first pick, but they ultimately ended up passing and taking Moore out of Tennessee; similarly this year the Angels have been tied to prep shortstop Ethan Holliday and Eli Willits — but the industry isn’t really buying it given the Halos’ history.
Last year, their next two picks were likely relievers in Chris Cortez and Ryan Johnson, and there are a number of similar college arms available for their next few picks in this draft: LSU righty Chase Shores, Georgia righty Brian Curley, Iowa lefty Cade Obermueller, Tennessee righties A.J. Russell and Tanner Franklin and Ole Miss righty Mason Morris. All of those pitchers should land in Rounds 2-4.
Day 1 picks: No. 3, No. 35, No. 57, No. 91
Bonus pool: $17,074,400
One big question: Do the M’s continue with the draft strategy that has been working for them?
There are a couple player demographics that have provided strong returns for Seattle in recent drafts. Prep position players landed with high picks/bonuses is a big one — Colt Emerson, Cole Young, Jonny Farmelo, Harry Ford, Edwin Arroyo and Aidan Smith came in the 2021-2023 drafts. And Seattle also has found success with college pitchers throughout the draft: George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, Brody Hopkins, Logan Evans.
Right now, industry chatter has Seattle casting a wide net for the No. 3 overall pick, with the three college left-handed pitchers all getting a long look along with prep righty Seth Hernandez and also some college position players in Aiva Arquette and Ike Irish.
Day 1 picks: No. 4, No. 45, No. 74, No. 77
Bonus pool: $15,723,400
One big question: What do the Rockies do if they don’t get Ethan Holliday?
It’s a poorly kept secret that the Rockies want Ethan Holliday, and they’ll probably get him if he doesn’t go No. 1 overall. But if he does go to the Nationals there, what direction does Colorado choose with the No. 4 pick?
Most industry chatter is that the Rockies will take a pitcher, with Florida State’s Jamie Arnold and Oklahoma’s Kyson Witherspoon, the two pitchers they are tied to that should still be on the board. Some think the Rockies would take Oregon State shortstop Aiva Arquette.
Whomever Colorado selects at No. 4 will likely impact the next pick, as the Rockies tend to mix position players and pitchers with their top picks. It’s worth noting the Rockies haven’t taken a high school player in the top 10 rounds in any of the past three drafts, so Holliday seems to be the rare prep player who tickles their fancy.
Day 1 picks: No. 5, No. 55, No. 72, No. 89
Bonus pool: $14,238,300
One big question: Will Chaim Bloom’s influence be felt in this year’s draft?
The Cards haven’t picked a high school player in the top 10 rounds in the past three drafts, instead leaning heavily into college pitching.
While in control in Boston, Bloom wasn’t shy about draft prep position players at high picks, including Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Nick Yorke. Bloom will be taking control of the Cardinals front office after this season, so it is an open question if his preferences will be felt a few months before he is the team’s top decision-maker.
Prep shortstops Eli Willits, JoJo Parker and Billy Carlson have all been tied here, with the other college players projected in this range of the draft also mentioned.
Day 1 picks: No. 6, No. 50, No. 73, No. 82
Bonus pool: $14,088,400
One big question: Will the Pirates lean toward college prospects with their early picks to try to help the big league team ASAP?
The Pirates have taken an above-average rate of high school players — their first three picks last year and four of their top five — and have found some big success with Konnor Griffin and Bubba Chandler.
That said, they’ve been tied mostly to college players for their top pick this year and some rivals theorize this is being influenced by trying to help the big league team. Any of the three college lefties or Aiva Arquette are rumored here most.
Day 1 picks: No. 7, No. 43, No. 46, No. 78
Bonus pool: $15,187,400
One big question: Do the Marlins continue to lean into prep position players?
In the first draft under new president of baseball ops Peter Bendix (formerly of the Rays) and scouting director Frankie Piliere (formerly of the Mariners), the Marlins took prep position players with their top two picks. Rumors have them eyeballing a similar strategy this year, which would be in keeping with a player demographic that the Rays and Mariners have found success with in the past. With a comp pick and over $15 million in bonus pool money, there’s plenty of muscle to get more than two premium talents in this year’s haul.
Day 1 picks: No. 8, No. 81
Bonus pool: $10,314,600
One big question: Given the stars of last year’s draft class and the strength of the farm system are both on the mound, do the Jays try to find a bat with their first pick?
Pitchers Trey Yesavage, Johnny King and Khal Stephen were the Jays’ top three picks last year and are all arrow up this year. Throw in currently/recently injured pitchers Ricky Tiedemann, Jake Bloss and Brandon Barriera, and that’s the top of the farm system, outside of shortstop Arjun Nimmala.
Given where the Jays’ first pick is, Oklahoma RHP Kyson Witherspoon and prep RHP Seth Hernandez are options, but otherwise it’s looking like mostly position players as the top options expected to be available for the No. 8 pick.
Day 1 picks: No. 9, No. 51, No. 83
Bonus pool: $11,836,800
One big question: Will the Reds get their wish and land Seth Hernandez?
Almost half of the teams in the top 10 won’t pick Seth Hernandez — not because of him necessarily, but they likely wouldn’t take any prep righties in the top 10. Because of that, a consensus top-tier talent might make it to the Reds at No. 9 if he doesn’t go third or sixth. If he makes it this far, it would set up the Reds to begin the draft with a steal — but if they don’t get him, which direction will they go?
There will be a few solid prep position players to choose from (Billy Carlson, Steele Hall, Gavin Fien) and a few college players (Ike Irish, Kyson Witherspoon), but there is also actually a decent chance that Tennessee LHP Liam Doyle runs into a similar issue to the one Hernandez could face and makes it all the way to the No. 9 pick. Either Doyle or Hernandez would both be great outcomes for the Reds.
Day 1 picks: No. 10, No. 44, No. 76
Bonus pool: $12,169,100
One big question: Will the White Sox hit pay dirt with another high schooler with one of their top two picks?
Chicago is picking in a spot where it will have some prep options for its first pick — JoJo Parker, Billy Carlson and Steele Hall are rumored to be in the mix — though there’s also at least as many college players who could also be considered.
Chicago has also been tied to prep lefty Kruz Schoolcraft and there’s a shot the White Sox could float him to their second pick with a big bonus, which might fit better with an underslot choice at their first pick.
Day 1 picks: No. 11, No. 48
Bonus pool: $10,563,500
One big question: Can the A’s take continue to successfully find value with college players?
The A’s did well in the 2021 draft, landing four big leaguers with their first four picks — Max Muncy, Zack Gelof, Mason Miller and Denzel Clarke — and none of them were consensus values for where they were picked. The 2022 class was a little more mixed, but they found two steals on the college side in Colby Thomas in the third round and Jack Perkins in the fifth round. 2023 was also mixed but was headlined by Jacob Wilson. 2024 has been another home run so far, with Nick Kurtz already in the big leagues, Gage Jump not far behind and Tommy White also playing well.
There is a clear trend of finding value with college players and the A’s are rumored to be looking at college position players, including Arizona OF Brendan Summerhill and SS Wehiwa Aloy at their top pick this year.
Day 1 picks: No. 12, No. 52,, No. 84
Bonus pool: $10,991,300
One big question: How often will the Rangers take risks?
In recent years, the Rangers have followed consensus rankings or played it safe with their higher picks, then taken some risks later in the draft.
In 2024, they started with three left-handed hitting college players with low-to-medium upside then took a player who has already had success with their first prep pick in Devin Fitz-Gerald.
Somewhat similarly in 2023, they took the best guy on the board in Wyatt Langford, then with no second or third round picks, still hit paydirt in the fifth round (Alejandro Rosario), sixth round (Caden Scarborough), and 11th round (Maxton Martin). I’d argue taking Kumar Rocker third overall in 2022 was risky and that has worked out.
The board is lining, up so the Rangers will likely choose from the second tier of players which will mean deciding between a range of different upsides: low (Ike Irish, Gavin Kilen), medium (Kyson Witherspoon, Wehiwa Aloy, Brendan Summerhill, Gavin Fien) and high (Steele Hall, Gage Wood).
Day 1 picks: No. 13, No. 85
Bonus pool: $8,403,300
One big question: How will new president of baseball ops Buster Posey impact the draft strategy?
Under scouting director Michael Holmes, the Giants have tended toward either higher upside, standout athletic testers (Bryce Eldridge, Walker Martin, Reggie Crawford, Dakota Jordan) or going underslot (last year’s top pick James Tibbs, now with the Red Sox as part of the Rafael Devers trade) at high picks.
Posey’s point of view tends to be more traditional, so he’s not expected to influence a change in draft strategy. Steele Hall and Wehiwa Aloy fit the athletic tester criteria well, and you could argue Kyson Witherspoon and Gavin Fien do, too.
Day 1 picks: No. 14, No. 37, No. 42, No. 53, No. 67, No. 86
Bonus pool: $16,699,400
One big question: How will the Rays utilize their extra picks?
The Rays have leaned hard into position players, particularly switch- and left-handed hitters, with plenty of high schoolers and some higher-upside collegiates with their top picks of late.
Brendan Summerhill, Jace Laviolette and Gavin Kilen are all fits on the college side for their first pick while preps Sean Gamble, Jaden Fauske, Dean Moss, Mason Ligenza and JoJo’s brother, Jacob Parker, all fit, mostly for later picks. Steele Hall is the one right-handed hitter tied to the Rays’ first pick. I’d expect them to end up with a few of these players given their number of early picks.
Day 1 picks: No. 15, No. 33, No. 75, No. 87
Bonus pool: $12,409,300
One big question: Will the Red Sox find more value at their early picks or in the middle rounds?
The Sox have drafted well of late, finding pretty immediate arrow-up types in Payton Tolle (2nd round) and Brandon Clarke (5th) last year, Kristian Campbell (4th compensation) and Connelly Early (5th) in 2023, along with Roman Anthony (2nd compensation) and Chase Meidroth (4th) in 2022.
They haven’t done poorly with their top picks — Braden Montgomery and Kyle Teel were their last two first-rounders and headlined the Garrett Crochet trade along with Meidroth — but it’s harder to hit a value home run with a first-round pick when expectations are already so high.
If the Sox can nail their first-rounder this year and then continue this trend of finding quick wins with two more middle-rounders, it will be a boon to the top farm system in baseball just as Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer are likely to graduate.
I would project that both of those players will graduate in the next month (like Kristian Campbell, Hunter Dobbins and Richard Fitts did earlier in the year) and will drop the Red Sox farm sharply, into the middle tier of systems. For what it’s worth, those five alone would easily be a top 10 farm system, possibly top five.
Day 1 picks: No. 16, No. 36, No. 54, No. 88
Bonus pool: $12,653,000
One big question: Which high upside arm will they hand out a big bonus to this time?
The Twins have given at least $1.5 million to either a high school pitcher or one with a short college track record each of the past four years: Dasan Hill in 2024, Charlee Soto in 2023, Connor Prielipp in 2022 and Chase Petty in 2021.
The only fit for their first pick is Gage Wood, while there are a number of options in the second or third round: Landon Harmon, Cam Appenzeller, Aiden Stillman, Miguel Sime Jr. and Angel Cervantes. The Twins have been tied more so to position players, including Jaden Fauske, Charles Davalan, Jace Laviolette and Xavier Neyens.
Day 1 picks: No. 17, No. 56, No. 90
Bonus pool: $9,636,800
One big question: Do they continue targeting power arms and bats at their high picks?
In the past three seasons, the Cubs have tended toward power-oriented position players (Cam Smith, Cole Mathis, Matt Shaw) and power arms (Jaxon Wiggins, Cade Horton, Nazier Mule) with their bigger bonuses.
There are some solid options this year who are tied to the Cubs in Arkansas teammates Wehiwa Aloy and Gage Wood. Josh Hammond, Xavier Neyens and Jace Laviolette would also fit.
Day 1 picks: No. 18, No. 29, No. 92
Bonus pool: $10,917,800
One big question: Do they continue to target hit-first, up-the-middle bats?
The D-backs are commonly tied to Slater de Brun, Caden Bodine, Kayson Cunningham and Gavin Kilen given their history of taking compactly built position players such as Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas and Slade Caldwell.
With two picks in the top 30, they’ll have a couple chances and could conceivably land two of the four players mentioned above, maybe even if they just play it straight, with the college players likely not making it to Pick 29, but at least one of the prep hitters likely will.
Day 1 picks: No. 19, No. 30, No. 31, No. 58, No. 69, No. 93
Bonus pool: $16,513,100
One big question: Will the Orioles keep stacking up athletic position players?
The O’s have leaned heavily into up-the-middle position players with some power/athleticism in the draft. That profile describes their first four picks in 2024, first two picks in 2023, first four picks in 2022 and first three picks in 2021.
There is a lack of impact pitching on the big league team and at the higher levels of the farm system (though there is solid depth of big-league-caliber arms in the system), and their first pick is a chance to get a potential impact arm.
They do have a number of picks, so they’ll likely still dip into the group of position players who fit their drafting history: Xavier Neyens, Jace Laviolette, Wehiwa Aloy, Josh Hammond, Dax Kilby, Cam Cannarella and Slater de Brun.
Day 1 picks: No. 20, No. 32, No. 59, No. 68, No. 94
Bonus pool: $13,138,100
One big question: Where will the Brewers find value this year?
The Brew Crew have a somewhat unique approach to the draft, often finding value in later rounds. 2024 fourth-rounder Marco Dinges and 12th-rounder Tyson Hardin are arrow up from last year’s group. And the 2023 haul from the later rounds was huge: sixth-rounder Cooper Pratt, eighth-rounder Craig Yoho, 11th-rounder Bishop Letson, 13th-rounder Brett Wichrowski and 15th-rounder Josh Adamczewski. From their 2022 draft, fourth-rounder Matthew Wood and 12th-rounder Luke Adams are arrow-up prospects along with a second-rounder you might have heard of: Jacob Misiorowski.
Milwaukee aggressively pursues lesser-known high school players, often for six-figure bonuses and from the Upper Midwest, while also finding undervalued players in junior colleges and high school players who have fallen for unclear reasons. By nature, that is harder to predict before the draft, but some names they’re tied to fit these trends: Charles Davalan, Brady Ebel, Coy James and Ethan Rogers.
Day 1 picks: No. 21, No. 95
Bonus pool: $7,181,500
One big question: What type of middle-rounder will the Astros find value with this year?
Junior college shortstop Caden Powell, last year’s sixth-rounder, has been arrow up this year as an athletic-testing standout with big tools. In 2023, the Astros targeted toolsy, underscouted high schoolers in shortstop Chase Jaworsky and outfielder Nehomar Ochoa Jr. along with juco catcher Will Bush. In 2022, they found value from four-year colleges with RHP AJ Blubaugh (seventh round) and Zach Dezenzo (12th round).
Xavier Neyens and Tate Southisene are connected to the Astros’ first pick, but keep an eye on Micah Bucknam and Matt Ferraro in the third or fourth round.
Day 1 picks: No. 22, No. 60, No. 96
Bonus pool: $9,081,100
One big question: Will the Braves continue to use their top picks to stockpile arms?
The Braves have taken pitchers with at least their first three picks in each of the past four drafts. They’re tied to more arms this year — Gage Wood and Tyler Bremner get mentioned at their first pick, along with a number of position players — but will they continue this trend when roughly 75% of the top of their farm system is pitchers?
This is a great opportunity to reverse that trend and select a position player with their first pick, as the pool of best available talent is likely to be about 75% position players.
Day 1 picks: No. 23, No. 28, No. 61, No. 71, No. 97
Bonus pool: $12,794,700
One big question: How will the Royals handle their five picks on Day 1?
The Royals have their full complement of picks plus a compensation pick after the second round and a pick after the first round gained because of Bobby Witt Jr.‘s AL MVP runner-up finish.
Scouting director Brian Bridges loves to draft high school pitchers and upside in general, and his first draft in Kansas City is already showing dividends with his first two picks, Jac Caglianone and David Shields.
Like division mate Detroit with the next pick, the Royals are tied to a number of players as they prepare for all the different ways they could play their picks based on how things go ahead of them.
Their early picks have been tied to most prep pitchers, headlined by Aaron Watson, Kruz Schoolcraft, and Matthew Fisher along with some college arms such as Anthony Eyanson. That said, the board is giving them position players, particularly at their first pick, so the pitchers may be collected more down the board instead.
Day 1 picks: No. 24, No. 34, No. 62, No. 98
Bonus pool: $10,990,800
One big question: Will the Tigers hit paydirt with another left-handed-hitting prep position player?
Bryce Rainer, Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle have all been immediate hits in pro ball for the Tigers after being taken with first-round picks in the past two drafts.
There are some candidates to continue the trend when the Tigers pick at 24 and 34, including Kayson Cunningham, Jaden Fauske, Slater de Brun and Sean Gamble, though the Tigers have also been tied to Michael Oliveto (may fit better in the second round) and Coy James (right-handed hitter).
When a team has two early picks, it often gets tied to lots of players because, in different scenarios, it could go over or under slot or high school or college or hitter or pitcher at each spot. Anthony Eyanson, Aaron Watson and J.B. Middleton are some of the pitchers the Tigers have been tied to, and keep an eye on Jaiden LoRe (another right-handed-hitting shortstop) as a target at a later pick.
Day 1 picks: No. 25, No. 99
Bonus pool: $6,569,100
One big question: Can the Padres still land multiple players with big upside with the third-lowest bonus pool?
The Padres’ first two picks have been high school players in each of the past eight drafts — since the 2016 draft when they took Cal Quantrill out of Stanford with their first pick. They’re once again tied to a number of high-upside high school players.
Kruz Schoolcraft and Quentin Young are the two most rumored fits — but also Dax Kilby and Kayson Cunningham who have more medium upsides. It’s reasonable to assume San Diego takes one of those players with its first pick, possibly under slot, to then move those potential savings plus its overage into its next pick, which would give the team a seven-figure budget at No. 99. The Padres are one team on Maryland prep SS Will Rhine, who could fit the bill at their second pick.
Day 1 picks: No. 26, No. 63, No. 100
Bonus pool: $7,849,400
One big question: Will the Phillies continue to take high school players with their high picks?
The Phillies made the most surprising first-round pick last year, taking Dante Nori at the 27th pick. Their next-highest bonus went to another prep center fielder, Griffin Burkholder, while their top three bonuses in 2023 also went to prep position players and their top pick in 2022 was a prep position player. They found solid value in 2021 and 2020 taking prep right-handers with their top picks, so it’s a safe bet the Phillies will take a high school player with their first pick this year.
There are a number of prep position players who could fit for their first pick (Kayson Cunningham, Xavier Neyens, Quentin Young, Sean Gamble, Slater de Brun) but also a handful of prep pitchers, with Matthew Fisher the one connected to Philly the most.
Day 1 picks: No. 27, No. 64, No. 66, No. 70, No. 101
Bonus pool: $10,198,100
One big question: Which high school pitcher will the Guardians take this year?
The Guardians can be classified as value shoppers, but have also invested seven figures in one prep arm in each of the past three drafts. RHP Seth Hernandez won’t make it to their first pick, but he may be the only one of this year’s top prep arms off the board, while picking at 64, 66, 70 and 101 on the first day gives them plenty of chances and bonus money to maneuver. Judging from their history, Aaron Watson, Cameron Appenzeller and Miguel Sime Jr. are the most likely targets.
Day 1 picks: No. 38, No. 102
Bonus pool: $5,465,900
One big question: Is there enough depth in the Mets’ upper minors that they will lean into high schoolers with their first few picks?
The Mets’ upper minors depth is impressive right now, with Jett Williams, Francisco Alvarez, Drew Gilbert, Jacob Riemer, Luisangel Acuna and Ryan Clifford leading the way behind Mark Vientos, Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio in the big leagues.
On the pitching side, they have Jonah Tong, Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, Blade Tidwell, Dom Hamel and the injured Christian Scott ready to contribute this year or next.
This young depth around the big league team could allow them to lean into high schoolers and high-variance talent with the second-lowest bonus pool in the draft.
Day 1 picks: No. 39, No. 103
Bonus pool: $5,383,600
One big question: With the lowest bonus pool in the draft, can the Yankees replenish the farm system?
The Yankees were missing their second- and fifth-round picks in the 2023 draft and are missing their second rounder this year in addition to having their first-round selection moved down 10 picks because of CBT spending.
In 2023, the Yankees’ first pick was George Lombard Jr., one of the better prospects in baseball and they found some value at later picks but no clear home runs, yet.
Their first pick this year is where we hit the tail end of the 45 FV tier of players in my rankings, meaning there’s some late-first-round-caliber upside still available with high schoolers such as 2B Sean Gamble, CF Slater de Brun and SS Tate Southisene, or one of the college pitchers with some relief risk such as righties Riley Quick, Patrick Forbes and Marcus Phillips.
Day 1 picks: No. 40, No. 41, No. 65, No. 104
Bonus pool: $9,031,300
One big question: Do the Dodgers take a big swing at one of their comp picks?
The Dodgers have been forced to be creative in the draft because they are usually either picking near the end of each round and/or missing picks because of free agent signings. They’ve mixed in plenty of college players, but have tended to take high schoolers with their first-round picks.
This year, they’re tied to the most high-variance prospect in this year’s draft, prep infielder Quentin Young, and a few others who fit later in the draft, such as Mason Ligenza.
You know it as soon as the college football schedule drops. The game that’s circled, the player you love to hate, the rival coach who seems to especially delight in destroying your team’s season.
We’re getting into the dog days of summer, with the only relief being the crisp autumn days of the college football season are rapidly approaching. But that means the enemies are lining up at the gates.
Today, we’re doing recon on where each post-spring top 25 team stands and who stands in their way. These are each teams’ potential future villains, the coaches, players and teams that have the chance to make the whole season go south. — Dave Wilson
1. Penn State: Ryan Day
Penn State coach James Franklin and the Nittany Lions have been unable to get over the hump against Ohio State, especially since Day took over in Columbus. The Nittany Lions have dropped six straight to Day, culminating with last year’s defeat, as fourth-ranked Ohio State rallied to topple the third-ranked Nittany Lions in State College 20-13. This season, Day will have a new starting quarterback and inexperience on both sides of the ball coming off last year’s national championship. Penn State will counter with one of the most experienced teams in the country, headlined by veteran quarterback Drew Allar and running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Franklin even hired away Day’s defensive coordinator, Jim Knowles. The Nittany Lions travel to Columbus on Nov. 1 in a showdown that figures to carry major playoff implications. — Jake Trotter
Clemson’s arch enemy for this season is obvious: Sellers. The Tigers watched the South Carolina quarterback dodge defenders, break tackles and keep one play after another alive last season in a stunning Gamecocks win that nearly derailed Clemson’s season. Clemson will be looking for revenge, of course, but new defensive coordinator Tom Allen will be more focused on finding answers for the elusive Sellers. There are lofty expectations at Clemson this season, and the Tigers don’t necessarily need a win over South Carolina to achieve them, but nobody will sleep soundly in the state if the 2025 defense coughs up another win to its biggest rival. — David Hale
3. Texas: Oklahoma
In Week 1, the Longhorns get a rubber match against an Ohio State team that eliminated Texas from the playoff last season, but the results of this game leave a lot of runway for either team to get back into this year’s postseason. Yet, there is no bigger test every year for Texas than Oklahoma in Dallas. This one’s a bit of a mystery, with the Sooners bringing in new offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer, who played high school football in the Dallas area, from Washington State. The new-look Sooners could either be a launching point or a big speed bump in the SEC schedule for a Longhorns team with national championship aspirations. — Dave Wilson
4. Georgia: Alabama
The last coach Georgia fans ever wanted to see on the other sideline is doing television. Nick Saban was 5-1 against Kirby Smart, but even with Saban in his first year of retirement last season, Alabama still beat Georgia in a wild 41-34 game in Tuscaloosa the final weekend of September. Georgia has lost nine of the past 10 games in the series and hasn’t beaten Alabama in the regular season since 2007, Saban’s first season in Tuscaloosa, when the Mark Richt-coached Bulldogs won 26-23 in overtime. Georgia has vaulted to elite status under Smart, but a second straight loss to DeBoer — especially with this year’s game being played in Athens — wouldn’t sit well with anybody in Athens. — Chris Low
5. Ohio State: Sherrone Moore
Michigan coach Sherrone Moore has become a problem for the Buckeyes. He might not wear the villain outfit quite as well as predecessor Jim Harbaugh did, but Moore’s rise in coaching — as Wolverines offensive line coach, offensive coordinator and now head coach — has coincided with Ohio State’s longest losing streak (four games) to its archrival since 1991. Moore served as acting head coach during Harbaugh’s Big Ten-imposed suspension in 2023, as Michigan punched its ticket to the Big Ten championship game. He then earned the permanent role and pulled off one of the more stunning upsets in the history of The Game in November in Columbus. The story of Moore’s coaching career at Michigan is really just beginning, but he has already demonstrated his ability to win the biggest games. — Adam Rittenberg
6. LSU: Daytime home games
LSU fans have been known to curse day games, especially in the sweltering September heat. It’s at night when Tiger Stadium (and typically LSU’s football team) shines. In 2025, the only SEC home game that LSU will definitely play at night is the league opener against Florida on Sept. 13. Home games against South Carolina and Texas A&M fall into the “flex” window, meaning they could start as early as 3:30 p.m. ET or as late as 8 p.m. ET. Since 2000, LSU is 112-15 in Saturday night home games at Tiger Stadium. Brian Kelly has faced just two nationally ranked SEC opponents in day games at Tiger Stadium and is 1-1. — Low
7. Notre Dame: Miami
No Notre Dame players were alive for the 1988 clash with Miami, and Fighting Irish coach Marcus Freeman was only 2 years old. But longtime Domers will always view the U as a true villain, and new Miami quarterback Carson Beck, the transfer from Georgia, sparks a range of reactions. Notre Dame scored a signature win in the CFP semifinal at the Sugar Bowl against a Georgia squad that had lost Beck to injury. When healthy, Beck is talented enough to villainize a Notre Dame defense replacing standouts Xavier Watts, Jack Kiser, Rylie Mills and others and appearing in its first game under new coordinator Chris Ash. Early season games are one of the only knocks against Freeman, who has dropped at least one September game in each of his three seasons as Irish coach. Notre Dame needs a strong start with its two most talented opponents — Miami and Texas A&M — leading off the schedule. — Rittenberg
8. Oregon: Ohio State
Is it too simple to say Ohio State? Maybe just Jeremiah Smith after he caught seven passes for 187 yards and two touchdowns in the Rose Bowl drubbing that the Buckeyes put on the Ducks to end their undefeated season? The good news for Dan Lanning & Co. (or bad depending on how you look at it) is that Oregon will not face Ohio State in the regular season this season and a rematch could only occur in the Big Ten title game or in the College Football Playoff. Penn State enters the fray this season as a much-hyped conference contender that the Ducks will have to face and yet it feels like Oregon and Ohio State are still the cream of the crop for the conference and are likely to continue seeing each other on the sport’s biggest stages. — Paolo Uggetti
9. Alabama: Vanderbilt
Remember when Saban won 100 straight games against unranked opponents, the longest such streak in the AP poll era? Now, all of a sudden, the Crimson Tide are 2-3 against their past five unranked foes, a stretch that started with a stunning 40-35 loss at Vanderbilt last season, which came only a week after DeBoer beat No. 2-ranked Georgia in his SEC opener as Alabama’s head coach. It was the first time Alabama had lost to Vanderbilt since 1984. Alabama will get its shot at payback this season on Oct. 4 when Vanderbilt visits Bryant-Denny Stadium. The loss to Vanderbilt a year ago ignited what was the first three-loss regular season for Alabama since 2010. Judging by some of the comments from Alabama players this offseason, nobody will need to remind the Tide when the Commodores are coming to town. — Low
10. BYU: Utah
It’s always Utah. The “Holy War” frequently manages to surprise us. A year ago, BYU was coming off a 5-7 season and Utah was considered the Big 12 favorite. This time, we have a full reversal: The Utes are the ones coming off a disappointing 5-7 campaign and the Cougars are ranked the highest of any Big 12 team on this list. (Granted, this ranking doesn’t account for the sudden uncertainty BYU is dealing with at the QB position.) We’ll already have a decent idea of BYU’s capabilities by the time Utah visits Provo in Week 8, but the Holy War could serve as a Big 12 title elimination game, and it will definitely impact the tenor of the season for both teams. It always does. — Connelly
Purdue didn’t generate many highlights in 2024, but it gave Illinois a major scare at Memorial Stadium, erasing a 24-3 deficit to force overtime before falling 50-49. Among the Boilermakers’ stars that day was tight end Max Klare, who recorded his first 100-yard receiving performance, finishing with 133 yards on six catches. Klare, like most of Purdue’s best players, transferred following the team’s coaching change. He landed at Ohio State, which will visit Memorial Stadium on Oct. 11. Illinois certainly will be aware of Klare but also must contain Heisman Trophy contender Jeremiah Smith and several other standout wide receivers, if it wants any chance at knocking off the defending national champions. — Rittenberg
12. Arizona State: Regression
Arizona State had one of the hottest teams in the country at the end of 2024 and returns far more of last year’s production than most. The Sun Devils appear primed for a run at a repeat Big 12 title. The problem: No one repeats in the Big 12. ASU’s biggest archrival could simply be regression to the mean. Among current members, the past six teams to reach the Big 12 championship before 2024 — 2020 Iowa State, 2021 Baylor, 2021 Oklahoma State, 2022 Kansas State, 2022 TCU and 2023 Oklahoma State — went a combined 28-9 in one-score finishes during their title runs. The following seasons, they went a combined 9-22 in such games. ASU went 6-2 in one-score finishes last season. It’s really hard to do that twice in a row, and in the Big 12 it appears impossible. — Connelly
13. South Carolina: LSU
South Carolina has its share of hated rivals — Georgia, Clemson, anyone else who plays “Sandstorm” during timeouts — but as the Gamecocks look to make a playoff run in 2025, enemy No. 1 might well be LSU. The Bayou Bengals have dominated South Carolina over the years, holding an 18-2 all-time record and winning eight straight matchups dating to 1995. More recently, LSU escaped Columbia with a 36-33 win last season in which the Gamecocks blew a four-point lead with less than 2 minutes to play. That loss ultimately cost South Carolina a playoff bid, but the Gamecocks feel certain they’re a far better team than they were then. If they can exact some revenge this time, it’ll be a big step toward reaching those lofty goals. — Hale
14. Iowa State: Kansas State
There’s no such thing as a Week 0 elimination game, but we get the closest thing to it in Dublin to start the 2025 season. The annual (for now) Farmageddon battle between ISU and Kansas State will take place in particularly green pastures this time, and it will pit two preseason top 20 teams with major Big 12 title hopes. Last year, the Cyclones’ defense played a perfect fourth quarter against the Wildcats, allowing just one yard in 12 snaps to win 29-21 and advance to the conference title game. This time, someone will be 0-1 in conference play before Week 1 even arrives. This is about as big a season opener as you could hope for. — Connelly
15. SMU: TCU
SMU was 3-17 against TCU coaches in the Dennis Franchione/Gary Patterson era, then Sonny Dykes won two straight against the Frogs in Dallas. Once he defected for the purple pastures of Fort Worth, he then won his first two against the Mustangs. Last year, however, SMU got its revenge in a 66-42 pummeling of TCU in a game in which Dykes was ejected. This year, the two teams, which have met 103 times, are scheduled for their last Iron Skillet game for the foreseeable future. This one will have some heat. — Wilson
16. Texas Tech: Baylor
Red Raiders coach Joey McGuire got his start in college coaching at Baylor under Matt Rhule and was promoted under Dave Aranda. He left in midseason in 2021 when he got the Tech job. While trying to right the ship in Lubbock, he’s gone 1-2 against Aranda, including a 59-35 home loss last season. Since Mike Leach was fired, the Red Raiders are 5-10 against the Bears, a team they’ll need to eclipse with their big ambitions to sit atop the Big 12. — Wilson
17. Indiana: UCLA
Coach Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers did a great job of retaining players and coaches from a 2024 team that won a school-record 11 games and reached the CFP. But two who got away — a coach and a player — landed with UCLA, which visits Indiana on Oct. 25. New Bruins offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri coached Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke last year and had spent the previous three seasons on Cignetti’s staff at James Madison. He might know the secrets to attacking Indiana’s defense. Defensive back Jamier Johnson transferred from Indiana to UCLA after recording 35 tackles and an interception last fall for the Hoosiers. Johnson, who began his college career at Texas, will be part of a reshaped UCLA secondary. — Rittenberg
18. Kansas State: Iowa State
As mentioned above, it’s all about the season opener against Iowa State. It will be the first opportunity for quarterback Avery Johnson and K-State to prove that last year’s all-or-nothing offense has matured a bit. The Wildcats averaged 37.6 points in wins and only 15.8 in losses. They scored TDs on 75% of red zone drives in wins and 42% in losses. They committed more turnovers in the four losses (nine) than in the nine wins (seven). You could almost say that this means K-State’s biggest archrival is K-State. Regardless, Week 0 is enormous. Turnovers and later-down failures cost it dearly against Iowa State last season, and it gets an immediate opportunity to right one of 2024’s wrongs. — Connelly
19. Florida: Georgia
Florida has plenty of teams it considers rivals, but only one on the schedule this season has beaten the Gators four years in a row. That would be Georgia, which has absolutely dominated them since Kirby Smart took over the program in 2016. Smart is 7-2 against Florida, and just like that record, has finished ahead of Florida in the SEC standings seven times. We all know the Gators closed last season strong with big wins over LSU and Ole Miss, but the true litmus test for where this program is — and whether it can return to elite status under coach Billy Napier — is the Georgia game. — Adelson
20. Michigan: Ohio State
Even though the Wolverines have won four straight in the series, Ohio State remains Michigan’s archvillain for obvious reasons. The Buckeyes rattled off eight straight wins before Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh turned the tide in 2021 with the first of the four straight victories. Coach Sherrone Moore salvaged an up-and-down, first full season with a stunning 13-10 victory over Ohio State in Columbus last year. Much of that Ohio State national championship team has moved on to the NFL. But the postgame flag-plant fracas at the Horseshoe last year reinforced why this bitter rivalry has never carried more vitriol for either side. The last thing the Wolverines want this season is to watch Ohio State return the favor by planting its flag on the Block M at the Big House. — Trotter
21. Miami: Syracuse
Georgia Tech is not on the schedule this year or that would be the slam dunk choice. We could go with the obvious “traditional arch nemesis” Notre Dame, which is visiting South Florida for the first time since 2017. But there is another team that gets to wear the villain hat, if only for this season: Syracuse. That’s right, the team that beat Miami 42-38 in the 2024 regular-season finale to keep the Hurricanes out of the ACC championship game visits Hard Rock Stadium on Nov. 8. While both rosters have turned over since that game, the head coaches remain the same and there might be some added fuel to the fire. — Adelson
22. Louisville: Kentucky
In 2022, Louisville was 10-1 and favored against rival Kentucky. The Cardinals lost. In 2021, they were 7-4 and lost. It was an all-too-familiar story. Since 2016, Louisville has lost as a favorite against its rival three times — often sullying otherwise impressive seasons. Last year, the Cardinals had no such worries as they beat up on the Wildcats, who were slogging through a down season, but Jeff Brohm & Co. know the history too well to assume that will be the start of a trend. There are tougher and bigger games on Louisville’s schedule this season, but none that will mean more than beating those hated Cats. — Hale
23. Texas A&M: Steve Sarkisian
Sarkisian has done a masterful job reloading Texas to meet its potential. Last year, he took the Longhorns into Kyle Field and spoiled the Aggies’ chances of getting into the SEC championship game, and this year, A&M visits Austin for the first time since 2010 where Arch Manning hysteria dominates the headlines and the Longhorns will be seeking a coronation for a playoff run. Sarkisian, an avowed fan of college rivalries and traditions, will look to push all the right buttons to ignite his team. — Wilson
24. Ole Miss: Mississippi State
Don’t get anybody in Oxford started on those “dreaded” cowbells clanging away from fans of the “school down south.” That school being bitter rival Mississippi State, whose former coach, Dan Mullen, used to refer to Ole Miss as the “school up north.” Either way, nobody in the SEC is particularly fond of the Mississippi State cowbells, in no way a banned artificial noisemaker. Yes, that’s a joke. But to Ole Miss fans, they would rather hear nails scratching on a chalkboard. The good news for the Rebels is that they’ve lost only once in the past five games between the schools but will get a heavy dose of the cowbells this Nov. 28 in Starkville. — Low
25. Oklahoma: Texas
In the Wishbone era, and then once again after Bob Stoops took over then ceded way to Lincoln Riley, the Oklahoma quarterback position made college football kings. In recent years, Landry Jones, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Caleb Williams and Dillon Gabriel all put up huge numbers. But the Sooners have fallen back a little and Texas is rolling into the Cotton Bowl with its own football royalty in Arch Manning. Oklahoma needs to right the ship, and all eyes will be on Dallas and where the program stands in the SEC era. — Wilson
It’s posturing season. Major League Baseball’s trade deadline goes through the same mechanics every year. Following June calls to indicate interest in players, early-to-mid-July brings out the first offers, which are inevitably imbalanced toward the teams willing to move players and, accordingly, holding all the leverage.
It’s the reason trades before the All-Star break are rare — and also a reminder that just because a match isn’t there now, it doesn’t preclude one going forward. So many elements play into a deadline (the keenness of teams to send away quality players, the willingness of contenders to make a move over the objection of their analytical model, the standings, recent performance and dozens of others) that to link team and player in a potential deal is a fool’s errand.
Well, consider this slightly foolish. Needs are needs, and even the best teams in baseball have them. Who would be the best players to fill them? This exercise endeavors to answer that.
Below are the 16 teams in MLB with winning records. Certainly a cadre of under-.500 teams — the Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins, Arizona Diamondbacks chief among them — could work their way into the conversation despite their slow starts. For now, though, these are the best teams baseball has to offer, and for each we found a fit among available players that makes too much sense not to pursue.
Teams are listed in order of record by league.
American League
59-35, first place, AL Central
Weakness: Swing-and-miss relievers
Best match: David Bednar, Pittsburgh Pirates
Cade Smith (Cleveland Guardians) and Griffin Jax (Minnesota Twins) are the right answers, but the likelihood of Detroit pulling off an in-division deal to get a swing-and-miss reliever is minimal. Which leaves Bednar, who has rebounded from an atrocious 2024 to recapture his form of 2021-23, when he was among the five best relievers in baseball. With a high-90s fastball, a hard-breaking curveball and a mean splitter, Bednar’s arsenal would give the Tigers a ninth-inning option beyond Will Vest or Tommy Kahnle.
Beyond the bullpen, the Tigers don’t need much. They can really hit, with eight of their nine regulars sporting slugging percentages of .415 or better. Manager AJ Hinch’s constant tinkering — the most Detroit has used one lineup this year is four times — doesn’t just work, it is an identity the team embraces.
And as much as the Tigers could use capital from their tremendous farm system to add to this team, they don’t necessarily need it. This is the second year of a window that’s bound to last. Securing Bednar’s services for two playoff runs is the sort of incremental step needed to capitalize in a down American League.
55-38, first place, AL West
Weakness: Starting pitching and left-handed hitting
Best match: Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals
The Astros lost Alex Bregman to free agency, traded Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs, have spent most of the season without Yordan Alvarez, their best hitter, and currently sport a rotation that includes 26- and 28-year-old rookies. There is no reason they should be this good. And yet they are.
So even if the cost is heavy and eats into a farm system that’s among the worst in MLB, targeting a pitcher of Lugo’s ilk would give them among the nastiest postseason rotations in the game and further entrench the Astros as a force. Lugo’s peripherals suggest he’s in line for regression but even if his ERA does jump from its current 2.67 mark, Lugo’s nine-pitch mix gives him the flexibility to adjust in-game — a luxury shared by only a handful of starters in the game.
54-39, first place, American League East
Weakness: Starting pitching
Best match: Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
Adding Keller solves multiple problems at once. The 29-year-old is producing the best season of his seven-year career with the Pirates, averaging nearly six innings a start and giving up only seven home runs in 106⅓ innings. The Blue Jays need rotation help — and, in a deal for Keller, could try to get David Bednar, Dennis Santana or Caleb Ferguson from the Pirates to complement an already-good bullpen riding breakouts from Braydon Fisher and Brendon Little.
Further, Keller remains under contract for three years at a reasonable $54.5 million, and with starters Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer free agents after this year and Kevin Gausman following the 2026 season, Toronto covets controllable starting pitching in a market that, at the moment at least, doesn’t offer much.
Pittsburgh could hold onto Keller and march into 2026 with a staff of Keller, Paul Skenes, Mike Burrows, Bubba Chandler and Bailey Falter — easily a top-10 rotation, maybe better — with Hunter Barco not far behind. But the Pirates desperately need bats and while Toronto’s farm system is not teeming with them, the Blue Jays can cobble together enough to make a deal worth Pittsburgh’s while.
51-41, second place, AL East (first wild card)
Weakness: Third baseman and pitching
Best match: Eugenio Suárez, Arizona Diamondbacks
This could be Seth Lugo. Or Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians. Or any number of players. The Yankees are not going to stop at one player this deadline. For all their strengths — and there are plenty — they have too many weaknesses to take half-measures.
Suárez is an excellent first step. His power is undeniable, a perfect fit in the middle of any lineup. He plays third base, a black hole for New York this season. The Yankees could two-birds-one-stone a deal and get Zac Gallen or Merrill Kelly from Arizona, too. But Suárez is the main target, because even if other third-base options exist — Nolan Arenado in St. Louis, Ryan McMahon in Colorado, Ke’Bryan Hayes in Pittsburgh — they’re owed significant money and are under contract for multiple years. Suárez’s expiring contract would allow the Yankees a trial run, and if he thrives in the Bronx, all they would need to bring him back is cash.
50-43, third place, AL East (second wild card)
Weakness: Relief pitching
Best match: Griffin Jax, Minnesota Twins
Remember, now, this is the best match, not necessarily the likeliest. Minnesota is notoriously value-conscious in its dealings, and the Twins will put an exceptionally high price on Jax, whom they regard as one of the best relievers in baseball — an opinion shared by most teams. With a fastball that sits at 97 mph and a dastardly slider, he is a setup man in name and a closer in stuff — precisely what the Rays, who are missing Manuel Rodriguez and Hunter Bigge, could use.
The Rays aren’t typically the sort of team to overpay for relievers, even ones with two additional years of club control. If not Jax, they could opt for Brock Stewart (Twins), who likewise has a vast array of swing-and-miss stuff — and two more years of team control as well.
48-44, second place, AL West (tied for third wild card)
Weakness: Corner infielder
Best match: Josh Naylor, Arizona Diamondbacks
Though the Mariners are managing with Donovan Solano and Luke Raley at first base, upgrading to Naylor would transform Seattle’s lineup for the better. Whether it’s slotting him behind J.P. Crawford to ensure Cal Raleigh comes to the plate with more baserunners, or sticking him in between Raleigh and Randy Arozarena to do the cleaning up himself, Naylor is a high-average, low-strikeout slugger whose quality at-bats would help transform a solid Seattle lineup into something more.
Pairing him with Eugenio Suárez would plug both of Seattle’s holes, and certainly the Mariners have the prospect capital to pull off the double. Considering the state of their pitching — a tremendous rotation and a Gabe Speier–Matt Brash–Andrés Muñoz endgame — the Mariners need only a depth reliever to feel comfortable. Upgrading the lineup is the distinct priority over the next three weeks, and executives expect Seattle to act aggressively.
49-45, fourth place, AL East (tied for third wild card)
Weakness: Relief pitching
Best match: Ryan Helsley, St. Louis Cardinals
Red Sox relievers walk too many hitters and don’t strike out enough. Take away Aroldis Chapman — the best reliever in the AL this season — and the Red Sox have a middle-of-the-pack bullpen. Getting Helsley from St. Louis would give Boston arguably the top setup-closer combination in baseball and go a long way toward supporting a rotation that has been among the game’s best over the past month.
Boston has the makings of a very good team in the second half. Alex Bregman will return soon. Roman Anthony has an OPS of nearly 1.000 over his past 10 games. Ceddanne Rafaela is one of the best center fielders in baseball. Carlos Narváez is a gem. Wilyer Abreu, Trevor Story, even Abraham Toro — everyone is contributing. A reliever or two and another starter would make the Red Sox the sort of contender they envisioned being at the beginning of the season.
National League
56-38, first place, NL West
Weakness: Pitching depth
Best match: Jhoan Durán, Minnesota Twins
The Dodgers enter every deadline season seeking a major move, and the 6-foot-5, 230-pound Durán qualifies. With a fastball that averages over 100 mph, a splinker that sits at 98 and a curveball to keep hitters off balance, Durán is pitching as well as ever. He hasn’t given up a home run this season, and his 1.52 ERA is third in MLB for pitchers with at least 40 innings.
The asking price will be hefty. Durán comes with two more years of team control beyond this season. The Dodgers don’t have time to waste on taking advantage of Shohei Ohtani‘s prime, though, and assembling a team with standouts in all facets is a reasonable goal. For a group threatening to approach a major league record for pitchers used in a season — the Dodgers are at 35, the record is 42 from Seattle in 2019 — adding another wouldn’t in and of itself be a needle-mover. If that one happens to be Durán, the Dodgers could theoretically trot out him, Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates and Alex Vesia to make their bullpen every bit as scary as the rest of their team.
Chicago Cubs
54-38, first place, NL Central
Weakness: Starting pitching
Best match: Sandy Alcántara, Miami Marlins
The market for Alcántara might not reflect his résumé. A former Cy Young Award winner, the 29-year-old has been arguably the worst pitcher in baseball this season, with an ERA just above 7.22. Some teams — even ones that could desperately use starting pitching — see the remaining two years and $38.3 million on Alcántara’s deal as an impediment to any trade, particularly with Marlins GM Peter Bendix asking for a haul in return.
Whether it’s Alcántara or another starter, the Cubs are a good starter away from having one of the top teams in baseball. Their offense is undeniable. Their defense is magnificent. Their bullpen has been a pleasant surprise. Adding a playoff-caliber starter, even if it pushes Chicago past the $241 million luxury-tax threshold, would reward a team that has brought excitement back to the North Side of Chicago.
54-39, first place, National League East
Weakness: Bullpen and outfield
Best match: Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians
As long as the Phillies are aiming high — and nobody aims high quite like Dave Dombrowski — perhaps they could take a run at landing both Clase and Steven Kwan from Cleveland. Maybe it would take Andrew Painter. Maybe Aidan Miller. Maybe Justin Crawford. Regardless, the Phillies’ window is closing, and getting both club control (Clase is under contract through 2028 and Kwan through 2027) and cost certainty (Clase is due $26 million for the next three years and Kwan less than $20 million for two) would make dealing high-end prospects significantly more palatable.
If Cleveland ultimately balks at moving Clase, it doesn’t change the imperative: Philadelphia needs to address its weaknesses. This bullpen is not suited to win a playoff series, much less the World Series. The consequence of bad relief pitching manifested itself in the postseason last year, when the New York Mets filleted Phillies relievers for 17 runs in 12⅔ innings. No other bullpen gave up more than nine runs in the division series. Clase (or Jhoan Durán or any shutdown reliever, really) is just a start. An on-the-fly overhaul is what this team needs — and deserves.
53-39, second place, NL East (first wild card)
Weakness: Pitching depth
Best match: Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks
The Mets started 45-24 on the strength of their starting pitching. With a 2.79 ERA that was nearly a quarter-run better than the second-best rotation, they cut the figure of a juggernaut. Since June 13, their starters’ 5.61 ERA is worse than every team in baseball aside from Washington. And if your starters are getting compared to those of the Nationals, something went haywire.
Gallen has looked more like his old self in recent starts, and if his home run rate stabilizes — typically one per nine, it has jumped to 1.6 — alongside a perilously low strand rate normalizing, he can shake off the 5.15 ERA and be a real difference-maker for the Mets before hitting free agency after the season. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns doesn’t, as a general rule, spend big on pitching. In this case, though, an investment in Gallen makes too much sense for the Mets not to consider.
53-40, second place, NL Central (second wild card)
Weakness: Power
Best match: Ryan O’Hearn, Baltimore Orioles
With 88 home runs, the Brewers rank just 21st in MLB. And while that hasn’t impeded their production — they’re eighth in runs scored — another big bat could do their offense wonders. Nobody will mistake the soon-to-be-32-year-old O’Hearn for Aaron Judge, but he punishes right-handed pitching, and in a lineup without any boppers, O’Hearn also could serve as the strong side of a first-base platoon and pick up outfield and DH at-bats.
Milwaukee’s options are fascinating. Jacob Misiorowski‘s arrival has been an unmitigated success and only added to the Brewers’ starting pitching depth. They could easily move a starting pitcher and tap into their deep prospect well for O’Hearn. The add-and-subtract maneuver is risky, sure, but the Brewers have steeled themselves to weather it. The Brewers, as currently constituted, are solid. Better second halves from Jackson Chourio and Joey Ortiz, continued solid pitching and the proper sort of deadline aggressiveness could make them even more.
51-43, second place, NL West (third wild card)
Weakness: Starting pitching
Best match: Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks
The Giants made their big move already, getting the best player who will move this season — designated hitter Rafael Devers — to shore up their offense. Intradivision trades can be trying, but if Buster Posey has shown anything in his first season as president of baseball operations, it’s a willingness to stomach the sorts of deals that would scare off his peers.
Kelly represents a significant upgrade over the Giants’ backend rotation options, as Justin Verlander and Hayden Birdsong are sporting ERAs of 6.27 and 5.73, respectively, since June 1. Whether the Giants are real or simply a function of a bullpen whose core of Camilo Doval, Randy Rodriguez, Tyler Rogers, Erik Miller, Spencer Bivens and Ryan Walker has given up only 11 home runs in 232⅔ innings remains to be seen. For an organization seeking its first postseason series win in nearly a decade, though, there is never a time as urgent as now.
49-43, third place, NL West (one game behind third wild card)
Weakness: Left field
Best match: Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox
No player and team have been linked as strongly as Duran and the Padres — and that’s without any knowledge of how the Red Sox intend to handle the deadline. Roman Anthony’s emergence has put Boston in a position to float Duran and Wilyer Abreu in trade discussions, and whether it’s now or over the winter, Boston wants to use its surplus of bats to fill voids elsewhere.
Left field in San Diego is among the biggest voids in the game. The Padres have tried eight players in left this season, and collectively they’re barely have an OPS of over .600. A Duran-Jackson Merrill–Fernando Tatis Jr. outfield would be a factory of dynamism that would be under team control through the end of the 2028 season. The Padres might need to get creative — beyond shortstop Leo De Vries (who’s believed to be off-limits) and catcher Ethan Salas, their farm system is middling — but nobody does creativity like GM A.J. Preller. And whether that means facilitating a deal through a third team or including one of their high-leverage relievers like closer Robert Suárez, San Diego is willing to go places most other organizations would never consider.
49-44, third place, NL Central (1½ games behind third wild card)
Weakness: Starting pitching
Best match: Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays
Certainly there’s a world in which John Mozeliak’s final deadline as St. Louis’ president of baseball operations is uneventful. The NL is stacked, and for all of the Cardinals’ improvement this season, they remain a flawed team. And yet there’s also a world in which Mozeliak can make this year’s team better and simultaneously set up his successor, Chaim Bloom, with a rotation option for the future.
The Rays don’t have a strong desire to move the 24-year-old Bradley, but with Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz and Joe Boyle all pitching well, and ace Shane McClanahan out on a rehabilitation assignment, Tampa Bay is at least entertaining the idea. Bradley’s stuff has exceeded his performance over his three major league seasons, but the controllable-starting-pitching market is practically empty, and St. Louis’ farm system is replete with high-end catchers, which would fill a vacuum for the Rays
47-46, fourth place, NL Central (3½ games behind third wild card)
Weakness: Bullpen and big bat
Best match: Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians
With a sneaky-deep farm system, the Reds could put together the sort of package to convince Cleveland to move Kwan, a two-time All-Star who in his four seasons ranks fifth in wins above replacement among all outfielders, behind only Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Kyle Tucker and Julio Rodríguez. Kwan’s bat-to-ball and defensive skills in left field are elite, and with free agency not beckoning until after the 2027 season, sandwiching him between TJ Friedl and Elly De La Cruz strengthens a Reds lineup that could use an offensive infusion.
If the cost to acquire Kwan is too high, other good options exist, chief among them Marcell Ozuna, the Atlanta slugger whose swing was built for Great American Ball Park. With a rotation that includes All-Star Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Chase Burns, the Reds are a terrifying postseason opponent. Another bat would buttress the rotation and give Cincinnati an opportunity to turn potential into its first postseason series win in three decades.
-
David Schoenfield
Comparing MLB to the NBA is kind of like comparing apples to pomegranates, but the NBA, with its rapid-fire spate of blockbuster trades and signings, certainly has us wishing major league front office executives operated as daringly as their basketball counterparts.
The conservative nature in baseball is understandable. Nobody wants to end up as the general manager who trades Pete Crow-Armstrong for two months of Javier Baez and a failed playoff bid.
But every now and then we get a shocking deal. At the MLB trade deadline in 2022, the San Diego Padres gave up five highly rated young players to acquire Juan Soto, who still had two-plus seasons left of team control. Three of those young players — James Wood, MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams — now form the core of the Washington Nationals. And just a few weeks ago came the surprise mid-June trade of Rafael Devers, in only the second year of a 10-year contract, from the Boston Red Sox to the San Francisco Giants.
Might another similarly entertaining megadeal occur this month ahead of the deadline on July 31? Probably not, but we can dream.
Let’s consider three players who almost certainly won’t be made available for trade this year, but whose names have been kicked around in (quite unlikely) fan trade scenarios. If the right offer did arrive, the player’s organization would have to at least consider making the deal … right?
Call them Godfather offers. Let’s see what it would take to land three star players in 2025.
(All prospect rankings are from Kiley McDaniel’s top 50 update from late May.)
Why they’ll probably keep him: He’s arguably the best starter in baseball, perhaps on his way to a Cy Young Award in his first full season. He’s one of the biggest names in the sport — despite playing for the lowly Pirates — and a player you can build not only a pitching staff around but a championship contender. He’s under team control through 2029 and doesn’t even become arbitration-eligible until 2027, so the Pirates are still years away from paying him a fair salary.
But Skenes is a pitcher — and pitchers get hurt. So, if the Pirates are open to listening …
Offer No. 1: New York Mets offer SS/CF Jett Williams (No. 20), RHP Jonah Tong (No. 50), RHP Nolan McLean, IF Ronny Mauricio, OF Carson Benge
Offer No. 2: Los Angeles Dodgers offer C/OF Dalton Rushing (No. 14), OF Josue De Paula (No. 17), IF Alex Freeland, RHP Emmet Sheehan, LHP Jackson Ferris
Offer No. 3: Detroit Tigers offer OF Max Clark (No. 8), SS Kevin McGonigle (No. 11), RHP Jackson Jobe, IF Colt Keith, RHP Sawyer Gipson-Long
The one that could get it done: Tigers
A playoff rotation with Skenes and Tarik Skubal? Thank you very much. Reminder: The Tigers haven’t won the World Series since 1984.
It will take one of the best farm systems in the sport to acquire Skenes, and Detroit is incredibly well positioned to make this kind of deal, with depth at both the major league and minor league levels, not to mention a payroll with only one expensive long-term commitment in Javier Baez. Two of the top prospects in the sport in Clark and McGonigle headline this trade, with both currently excelling in High-A ball. Clark, a speedy center fielder, has a .429 OBP with more walks than strikeouts, and McGonigle is hitting .373 with a high contact rate and OPS over 1.100. Former top pitching prospect Jobe underwent Tommy John surgery in June and would be a nice inclusion for the Pirates to gamble on.
For the Tigers, the deal wouldn’t even decimate their farm system. They would still have shortstop Bryce Rainer (No. 22), first baseman/catcher Josue Briceno and a slew of solid pitching prospects. For the Pirates, Clark and McGonigle project as solutions at two problem areas in center field (where Oneil Cruz has struggled defensively) and shortstop (stopgap Isiah Kiner-Falefa is the current starter) plus they get a solid major leaguer in Keith and a back-end rotation-type in Gipson-Long.
As much as the Mets could use a staff ace, their system is deeper in pitching prospects, which doesn’t best align with the Pirates’ needs. As the Dodgers’ pitching injuries have piled up again, Skenes could be a match. Rushing is blocked at catcher by Will Smith, and he and De Paula probably have more power upside (De Paula has drawn Yordan Alvarez comparisons) than Clark and McGonigle. The Pirates might, understandably, ask for Roki Sasaki, and that could be the deal-breaker for the Dodgers.
Why they’ll probably keep him: Acuña has been one of the best hitters in the majors since returning in late May from his second ACL surgery and has been the best hitter on a Braves team that is near the bottom of the National League in runs scored. He is signed through 2028 on an incredibly team-friendly deal that pays him just $17 million per season — making it one of the best contracts in the sport for a team. At just 27 years old, he remains in the middle of his prime and is one of the sport’s most dynamic talents.
But Acuña’s knees are a long-term concern, Atlanta lacks depth in both the lineup and pitching staff, and this looks like a lost season.
So, if the Braves are open to listening …
Offer No. 1: Milwaukee Brewers offer SS Jesus Made (No. 5), SS Luis Pena, OF Sal Frelick, RHP Logan Henderson, RHP Abner Uribe
Offer No. 2: Seattle Mariners offer SS Colt Emerson (No. 10), RHP Bryce Miller, C Harry Ford, OF Lazaro Montes, LHP Brandyn Garcia
Offer No. 3: Tampa Bay Rays offer SS Carson Willliams (No. 27), RHP Shane Baz, OF Theo Gillen, RHP Yoniel Curet, RHP Brody Hopkins
The one that could get it done: Mariners
The Mariners have never played in a World Series. Their right-field production is among the worst in the majors. Oh, and they have a loaded farm system with nine prospects on MLB.com’s recently updated top 100, more than any other team. On that list, Emerson came in at No. 18, Montes at No. 29 and Ford at No. 56. Miller’s value is temporarily down since he’s out because of right elbow inflammation, but he had a 2.94 ERA for the Mariners in 2024 and could give the Braves a front-line starter if healthy.
Ford might not be a perfect fit for Atlanta with Drake Baldwin (plus Sean Murphy) at catcher, but Cal Raleigh blocks Ford in Seattle. The Braves could trade Murphy in the offseason, and Ford does have the athleticism to play some outfield — although he has played exclusively behind the plate at Triple-A, where he’s hitting over .300 with an OBP over .400. Emerson is a favorite of scouts with his hard contact and ability to play shortstop, although he’s still learning to lift the ball more, while Montes recently earned a promotion to Double-A after slugging .572 in High-A at age 20.
For the Mariners, Acuña would fit nicely at the top of the order or hitting second in front of Raleigh, allowing them to slide Julio Rodriguez lower in the lineup — and maybe Acuña’s presence would also help take some pressure off Rodriguez. Most importantly: Acuña’s salary is a realistic fit even for the Mariners, who don’t like to spend. And despite giving up three excellent prospects and a young starting pitcher, their farm system would remain strong. Plus, they have the No. 3 pick in this year’s draft.
Milwaukee’s offer is enticing with two premium hitting prospects in Made and Pena, but it’s a riskier package as the 18-year-olds are a long way from the majors and neither is a lock to stick at shortstop, a big offensive hole in the Braves’ lineup. Williams would be the key to the Tampa Bay trade, but his sky-high strikeout rate at Triple-A has caused him to drop in the rankings and limits his offensive upside.
Why they’ll probably keep him: The Twins are under .500, but that doesn’t mean they’re out of the playoff race. Buxton has been their best player and best hitter as he’s on pace for a career high in WAR. Though he hasn’t reached the heights of Acuña at Acuña’s best, Buxton’s contract is also team friendly, as he’s signed through 2028 and making $15.1 million per season. He’s 31 years old but is still one of the better defensive center fielders in the game.
But Buxton, while healthy in 2025, is frequently sidelined by injuries. So, if the Twins are open to listening …
Offer No. 1: Philadelphia Phillies offer RHP Andrew Painter (No. 23) and OF Justin Crawford
Offer No. 2: Cincinnati Reds offer RHP Rhett Lowder (No. 48), RHP Chase Petty (No. 49) and 3B Sal Stewart
Offer No. 3: Kansas City Royals offer LHP Cole Ragans and LHP David Shields
The one that could get it done: Phillies
The Phillies, Reds and Royals all could use an outfielder to add some punch to their lineups, although in Cincinnati’s case, its biggest hole is at third base. Philadelphia has a lot riding on 2025 given the age of its lineup, and executive Dave Dombrowski knows how to go all-in. In this case, that would mean parting with one of the top pitching prospects in the game in Painter, plus a promising young outfielder hitting well at Triple-A.
Trading Painter would be painful, but the Phillies remain deep in the rotation with Zack Wheeler (signed through 2027), Cristopher Sanchez (signed through 2030), Aaron Nola (signed through 2030) and Jesus Luzardo (under team control through 2026). Ranger Suarez, who’s having an excellent season, is heading into free agency, so he’s the one arm they might lose. But center field has been a soft spot in recent seasons, with the Phillies in the bottom third in the majors in OPS this year, and the team’s overall power output has been below average, even with Kyle Schwarber. Adding Buxton adds more pop to the middle of the order.
Painter gives the Twins a potential ace, and they have top prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez ready to take over in center field anyway. The 21-year-old Crawford is a divisive prospect (he’s No. 49 in the MLB.com rankings) because while he’s hitting for a high average at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, he hits the ball on the ground too much and has only two home runs. Still, there’s a chance he produces a good OBP and plus defense with his speed.
The Royals’ challenge trade with Ragans is intriguing but risky for Minnesota, given he’s on the injured list right now because of a rotator cuff strain. Plus, intradivision trades are hard to pull off. The Twins would want Chase Burns from the Reds, but that’s probably a nonstarter for Cincinnati.
Will we get some surprise spicy deals this trade deadline? Will it just be the usual list of free-agents-to-be and relief pitchers? In a season that remains so wide open, the time might be right for some outside-the-box movement.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike