An icon of ASML is displayed on a smartphone, with an ASML chip visible in the background.
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ASML reported second-quarter earnings that beat estimates with the its key net bookings figure ahead of consensus.
However, the chip equipment giant missed analyst expectations for revenue guidance in the current quarter and warned of the possibility of no growth ahead.
Here’s how ASML did versus LSEG consensus estimates for the second quarter:
Net sales: 7.7 billion euros ($8.95 billion) versus 7.52 billion euros expected
Net profit: 2.29 billion euros vs 2.04 billion euros expected
In its own previous forecast issued in April, ASML had said it expected second-quarter net sales of between 7.2 billion euros and 7.7 billion euros. In a pre-recorded interview posted on ASML’s website, the company’s Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen said the beat was due to revenue from upgrading currently deployed machines as well as tariffs having a “less negative” impact than anticipated.
Analysts anticipated net bookings — a key indicator of order demand — would come in at 4.19 billion euros over the April-June stretch. ASML reported net bookings of 5.5 billion euros.
ASML is one of the most important semiconductor supply chain companies in the world. It makes extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) machines, which are required to manufacture the most advanced chips in the world, such as those designed by Apple and Nvidia.
Like many companies in the semiconductor industry, ASML has been grappling with uncertainty created by U.S. tariff policy.
The company forecast third-quarter revenue of between 7.4 billion euros and 7.9 billion euros, which was shy of market expectations of 8.3 billion euros.
ASML said it expects full-year 2025 net sales to grow 15%, narrowing its guidance from a previously announced forecasts of between 30 billion euros to 35 billion euros.
However, the Dutch tech giant was less certain about the outlook for 2026.
“Looking at 2026, we see that our AI customers’ fundamentals remain strong,” ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet said in a statement.
“At the same time, we continue to see increasing uncertainty driven by macro-economic and geopolitical developments. Therefore, while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage.”
The Veldhoven, Netherlands-headquartered company has released its next generation EUV tools known as High NA, which stands for high numerical aperture. These machines, which are larger than a double-decker bus and can cost more than $400 million each, are key to ASML’s future growth plans.
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Huge swathes of cash are flowing from Japan to European tech startups as risk-averse investors favor a more mature entrepreneurial ecosystem, helping to scale the continent’s booming deep tech cluster.
While the European startup and venture capital ecosystem has long operated in the shadow of Silicon Valley, it has become fertile ground for Japanese corporates, whose domestic market is younger.
Japanese investors or venture capital funds who themselves have Japanese investors, known as limited partners, participated in European financing rounds worth more than 33 billion euros ($38 billion) since 2019 when a trade deal between the European Union and Japan came into force, according to research from venture capital fund NordicNinja and data platform Dealroom.
For the five years leading up to the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement, investment totaled 5.3 billion euros.
In Europe at that time, “there was no Japanese capital other than Softbank,” Tomosaku Sohara, co-founder and managing Partner of Japan-Europe VC NordicNinja, told CNBC. NordicNinja, which has 250 million euros of assets under management, is a joint venture between Japan’s JBIC IG Partners and private equity firm BaltCap.
“Softbank was pretty active already at that moment, because they had acquired Finnish gaming company Supercell,” Sohara said, noting that the acquisition injected life into Finland’s startup ecosystem.
Now, Mitsubishi, Sanden, Yamato Holdings, and Marunouchi Innovation Partners are among those directly backing European tech, per the report, while Japan-linked venture capital firms such as NordicNinja, Byfounders, and Toyota‘s Woven Capital cut checks to startups on the continent.
There are over two times more VC-backed startups in Europe than in Japan, per capita, and 4.3 times more unicorns, per the report.
The shadow of Silicon Valley
Japan’s appetite for investing was always there, Sohara said. Its multinationals — like many — headed stateside to set up corporate venture capital arms in early 2000, in search of a slice of the action at the time when some of today’s largest companies were just being thought up in dorm rooms.
“Nobody wanted to look at Europe at that moment, but I think that after a couple of years they realized, ‘Hey, maybe the U.S. culture is totally different from the Japanese culture,’ and they began thinking, ‘Hey, maybe we need to look at another region like Europe,'” Sohara said, adding that the profile of entrepreneurs in Europe, many of whom came from large corporates at the time, was more aligned with Japan. That’s in contrast to the young founders coming from Stanford or university research and development departments, he said.
“They have experience at the corporates and also they have a mindset of entrepreneurship. Japan, unfortunately, is lacking the entrepreneurship mindset,” Sohara added, referring to Europe’s founders, many of whom came from Nokia and Skype.
The pull for founders
Japanese-linked investors have a penchant for one sector in particular: deep tech, which refers to companies building on top of scientific or engineering innovation. Deep tech and artificial intelligence accounted for 70% of deals made by such investors in Europe in 2024, echoing trends in the broader startup ecosystem as the AI, energy, and defense industries boom.
The top-funded companies with Japanese participation include the U.K.’s autonomous vehicle startup Wayve, which raised $1.05 billion in an investment round in May 2024, British quantum computing firm Quantinuum, which secured 273 million euros in January 2024, and Spanish quantum firm Multiverse Computing, which saw investors cut it a check of 189 million euros in June 2025. The rounds were backed by Softbank, Mitsui and Toshiba, respectively.
Such companies, however, typically need a lot of growth capital and industrial experience to scale successfully — two elements that Europe famously lacks.
“Investment appetite is way stronger than [in] any strategics I’ve seen here in Germany or in Europe,”
Sarah Fleischer
co-founder and CEO, Tozero
“Japanese firms — and they’re old, most of them that we’re talking about, right — they’re just sitting on a pile of money. They’ve been saving money throughout the last century, and now they’re starting to spend it, to try to grow as a large corporate and increase their footprint outside of Japan,” said Sarah Fleischer, co-founder and CEO of Germany-based battery materials recycling startup Tozero.
“You see that investment appetite is way stronger than [in] any strategics I’ve seen here in Germany or in Europe,” she added. Tozero has raised 14.5 million euros to date and counts NordicNinja, Honda and JJC among its investors.
It’s not just about the check. Japanese corporates and industrials have robust manufacturing and automotive know-how, Fleischer and Sohara noted respectively, meaning they are well positioned to plug Europe’s knowledge gaps when it comes to scaling large manufacturing projects.
Fleischer added that Japanese firms have long shored up their critical minerals supply chain and long-established trading firms, meaning they know how to secure essential components needed for the energy transition. For Tozero, this is an added plus, Fleischer said, given it’s in the business of recovering such materials from spent batteries.
In the age of political uncertainty amid choppy U.S.-China relations, Japan also acts as a good bridge to the Asian markets, Fleischer said.
A slower pace and lower risk appetite
Back in Japan, the number of entrepreneurs is “still very limited,” Sohara said, as the older generation and “great talents” wanted to work for “a Toyota and Honda or Sony,” he added, but the younger generation’s mindset is beginning to change.
Europe has also become the home to ambitious would-be founders searching for a tech ecosystem to build their companies in, Sohara said.
However, as collaboration between Europe and Japan scales, language remains a barrier as fluency in English is not widespread in Japan, he added.
For Fleischer, this also poses challenges. “There’s so much miscommunication and local translation that could ruin a partnership instantly. And there’s also some sort of cultural aspect as well, one needs to probably be aware of,” she said, adding that she recently spent weeks in Japan getting to know her investors face-to-face, “because that’s still the sentiment” there.
Decision-making can therefore be slower, the founder said, due to thorough research and preparation. “They just do their homework,” Fleischer said, noting that Japanese partners were hands-on in helping the company understand “how to build our next future commercial plant, potentially starting from Japan and then going worldwide.”
Indeed, “without the support from NN [NordicNinja] it would have been much more difficult to build the right relationships,” said Aaike van Vugt, co-founder and CEO of Dutch nanotechnology engineering firm VSParticle.
That’s in contrast to perhaps the most well-known Japanese player: Softbank. Softbank is “totally different” from traditional Japanese investor cultures, given it is driven by founder Masayoshi Son’s decisions rather than operating on a consensus basis, like most Japanese business, Sohara added.
The venture firm, known for its lofty bets on WeWork and, more recently, chip company Arm, poured huge sums of cash into tech startups amid the 2021 venture capital tech boom, which saw at least one Japanese-linked investor involved in deals worth 11.2 billion euros, per the report. Softbank stood out during this period; it was involved in 22% of deals with Japanese-linked participation in 2021.
Interest ticking up
Looking forward, Sohara and Fleischer expect greater collaboration between Europe and Japan. However, Japanese investors are expected to participate in rounds worth 3 billion euros in 2025, per the Dealroom and NordicNinja report, representing a dip from last year.
As many eyes turn to the Middle East for investment, Fleischer said that interest in Japan appears to be ticking up. Anecdotally, “people reach out to me for intros, which is fun, to meet Japanese corporate LPs,” she said, noting that this is a new development for her but that it may simply be because she has such investors now.
“I think it’s also politically driven as well in Japan, by the government, to position themselves more geopolitically smartly and make sure that the corporates or the industries grow in certain ecosystems, strengthening their positioning as a country,” she said.
But the first full trading week of the month saw stocks caught in November rains.
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each lost more than 1%, while the Nasdaq Composite shed around 3% — that’s its largest weekly loss since the tech-heavy index slumped 10% in the week ended April 4.
A few months ago, tariffs were the shadows that stalked stocks. Now, it’s fears that artificial intelligence-related stocks are trading at prices disconnected from what the firms are actually worth.
“You’ve got trillions of dollars tied up in seven stocks, for example. So, it’s inevitable, with that kind of concentration, that there will be a worry about, ‘You know, when will this bubble burst?‘” CEO of DBS, Southeast Asia’s largest bank,Tan Su Shan told CNBC.
“It’s likely there’ll be a 10 to 20% drawdown in equity markets sometime in the next 12 to 24 months,” Solomon said Tuesday at the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong.
That said, a pullback isn’t necessarily bad for stocks. It could even present “buying opportunities” for investors, according to Glen Smith, chief investment officer at GDS Wealth Management.
After all, earnings have been “reassuring” despite worries about tech stocks’ high valuations, Kiran Ganesh, multi-asset strategist at UBS, told CNBC. That means the rain might not last and the rally could find a way to run a little longer.
— CNBC’s Lee Ying Shan, Hugh Leask and Lim Hui Jie contributed to this report.
China rolls back curbs on rare earths. Beijing said Friday that it would suspend some restrictions on exports of rare earth elements. The move follows talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on Oct. 30.
Nexperia impasse shows signs of easing. The Chinese Commerce Ministry said in a statement Sunday that it had taken steps to allow exports of certain chips from Nexperia’s China facility. Shares of Nexperia parent Wingtech Technology climbed Monday.
U.S. government on track to end shutdown. The Senate on Sunday night stateside passed the first stage of a deal that would end the shutdown. The procedural measure allows other votes essential to the agreement to be held starting on Monday.
[PRO] Chinese sectors benefiting from AI. Earnings season in the country is underway, and while it’s spotlighting some AI-related sectors that have seen growth of up to 57%, others are facing a decline because of fierce price competition.
Fundraisers and fraudsters are presenting themselves as family office representatives, seeking to dupe gullible investors — and then there are also imposters who are in it just for an “ego boost,” several industry veterans told CNBC.
An information vacuum seems to have encouraged imposters. In many markets, genuine single family offices, or SFOs, are exempt from registering so long as they manage only family money. That privacy norm often makes verification hard, said industry experts.
China has rolled back a number of restrictions on its export of critical minerals and rare earth materials to the United States, in a sign that a trade truce between the world’s two largest economies is holding.
China’s Ministry of Commerce said Friday that it would suspend some export controls on critical minerals used in military hardware, semiconductors and other high-tech industries for a year.
The suspended restrictions, first imposed on Oct. 9, include limits on the export of certain rare earth elements, lithium battery materials, and processing technologies.
The export relaxations follow talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30.
Beijing also reversed retaliatory curbs on exports of gallium, germanium, antimony and other so-called super-hard materials such as synthetic diamonds and boron nitrides. Those measures, introduced in December 2024, were widely seen as retaliation for Washington’s expanded semiconductor export restrictions on China.
China classifies such materials as “dual-use items,” meaning they can be used for both civilian and military purposes.
Beyond military applications, these critical minerals are used across the semiconductor industry and other high-tech sectors — sectors at the heart of U.S.-China trade tensions.
Beijing has also suspended the stricter end-user and end-use verification checks for exports of dual-use graphite to the U.S., which were imposed in December 2024 alongside the broader export ban.
China dominates global production of most critical minerals and rare earth elements and has increasingly used its export policies as leverage in trade disputes.
As part of the latest China-U.S. trade deal, the U.S. has agreed to several concessions, including lowering tariffs on Chinese imports by 10 percentage points, and suspending Trump’s heightened “reciprocal tariffs” on Chinese imports until Nov. 10, 2026.
The U.S. will also postpone a rule announced Sept. 29 that would have blacklisted majority-owned subsidiaries of Chinese companies on its entity list.