Who will be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft? We predicted chances for 14 top prospects
-
Jordan Reid
Sure, there are more than nine months until the 2026 NFL draft starts in Pittsburgh, but it’s never too early to discuss the No. 1 pick. And there’s plenty to talk about.
Last year’s journey to No. 1 saw quarterback Cam Ward turn from a sleeper prospect to the unquestioned top quarterback in the 2025 draft. Will we see another QB come out of (almost) nowhere to be the first pick? Will one of the top quarterbacks below get it? Will Arch Manning explode at Texas and join his uncles as a No. 1 pick? Or will a non-quarterback get the top spot for the first time since 2022?
I picked 14 players who could be that top pick in Pittsburgh, adding percentage odds for each player. I’m starting with one of my favorite quarterbacks in this class, but don’t overlook those at 1%. That’s where Ward was slated this time last year.
Jump to a tier:
Serious contenders (4)
Potential risers (3)
Long shots (7)
Serious contenders
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 15%
Why he could be the top pick: NFL teams constantly fall in love with traits at the top of the draft, and Sellers has some of the best traits in the class. The 6-foot-3, 242-pound dual-threat quarterback can not only beat defenses with his powerful arm (2,534 passing yards and 18 touchdowns to seven interceptions as a 19-year-old redshirt freshman) but also with his legs (674 rushing yards and seven touchdowns).
Sellers showed drastic improvement as a first-year starter, helping the Gamecocks win six of their final seven games last season. His 65.6% completion percentage was also encouraging considering his inexperience, and it points to further improvement in 2025.
He sometimes throws passes that are too hot to handle and holds the ball too long in the pocket — his 3.06-second average time to throw was the 11th slowest nationally in 2024. He’ll also need to improve his ball security, as he fumbled 11 times (lost six) last season. But if Sellers can fine-tune these things and continue his growth, he has the tools to be the top pick in the 2026 draft.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 15%
Why he could be the top pick: I had Klubnik as the No. 1 pick in my Way-too-Early mock draft in May and feel he can take advantage of arguably the most talented roster in the country. He wasn’t on many draft radars after a disappointing sophomore season in 2023, but Klubnik made a major leap as a junior, finishing with 3,639 passing yards, 36 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions. He ended the season with a flourish, throwing for 336 yards and three touchdowns in the College Football Playoff first round against Texas.
Klubnik isn’t big (6-foot-2, 210 pounds), but he plays with a strong platform and progresses through reads quickly. No matter how muddy the pocket gets, he’s able to make tough throws because of his balance, rhythm and repeatable mechanics. There is debate about his arm strength among NFL evaluators, though.
“I think he has enough to be a fine starter on the next level, but his setup will always have to be near perfect to get the best out of him,” an AFC executive from a QB-needy team said this summer.
Klubnik is set up to make another leap, as Clemson returns its top three receivers (Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore). He’ll have a chance to make a big impression early this season when the Tigers play LSU in Week 1.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 15%
Why he could be the top pick: Allar is a toolsy passer who took a major leap in 2024 under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, improving his completion percentage from 59.9% in 2023 to 66.5%. He has the size (6-foot-5, 238 pounds) and strong arm that scouts desire and showed more confidence in those physical traits. He isn’t shy about using his arm strength to test tight windows and has good mobility for his size.
Despite Allar’s progress last season, many scouts feel he still needs to work on his ball placement. He’ll be tested this season, as Penn State lost first-round tight end Tyler Warren and has multiple new receivers that Allar will have to get acclimated to.
Evaluators also want to see Allar perform better in big games, something he has struggled with in his two seasons as a starter. Games against Oregon (Sept. 27) and Ohio State (Nov. 1) are paramount. If he can play more like he did against Oregon in the Big Ten championship game last season (280 combined yards and four touchdowns) and less like he did against Notre Dame in the CFP semifinals (12-for-23, 135 yards and a backbreaking late interception), Allar could be a top-10 pick … or higher.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 15%
Why he could be the top pick: Nussmeier performed well last season in succeeding 2023 Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels, throwing for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns to 12 interceptions. Nussmeier is a fearless passer who produces highlights with his uncanny ability to see big plays and throw his receivers open.
The 6-2 200-pounder’s arm is more flexible than powerful, but his great pocket vision and anticipation on throws to intermediate and deep areas of the fields stand out. He doesn’t take many sacks (his 2.9% sack percentage was 12th lowest in the FBS), but can be reckless and put the ball in harm’s way — especially after breaking the pocket. This showed against ranked teams, as he had three games of two or more interceptions against those opponents.
While Nussmeier’s aggressiveness can work against him, he has the smarts, accuracy and anticipation to be a top pick in the draft. Scouts will want to see more consistency and how he adjusts to a new set of receivers out of the transfer portal. He’ll be tested right away against Clemson in Week 1.
Potential risers
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 12%
Why he could be the top pick: Mendoza transferred from Cal to Indiana, where he enters a quarterback-friendly offense. Kurtis Rourke transitioned from the MAC to Curt Cignetti’s offense and was drafted in the seventh round of this past draft. The ceiling for the 6-foot-5, 225-pound Mendoza is even higher.
“I really liked Mendoza’s tape,” an NFC area scout said. “He’s the one to circle that could be a bigger riser, and Cignetti has a great track record with transfer QBs.”
Mendoza threw for 3,004 yards and 16 touchdowns with six interceptions and blends a strong arm with plus mobility for his size. He can stand and deliver in the pocket with ease and is extremely accurate — his 5.1% off-target percentage last season was the best in the FBS. He also excelled throwing outside of the pocket, with a 91.1 QBR. Sometimes he’ll break the pocket prematurely instead of allowing concepts to fully develop, so scouts would like to see him be more patient in those situations.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 10%
Why he could be the top pick: While quarterbacks are most often selected with the No. 1 pick, edge rushers grab the top spot occasionally. Travon Walker was the most recent example in 2022. The 6-3, 265-pound Parker is the most likely non-quarterback to be selected first, combining a good first step with strong hands to disengage at the point of attack.
Those hands help him win by overpowering blockers, and he finished his sophomore season with 11 sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss, second most in the FBS among defensive linemen. He has also been a turnover creator, forcing four fumbles last season (also second in the FBS) and stands out in a loaded Clemson defensive front.
“I know [defensive tackle Peter] Woods gets a lot of the love, but Parker is the one that could be drafted first off of that defense this year,” an AFC assistant told me this summer.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 5%
Why he could be the top pick: There’s a lot of projection here, as Manning has only two starts and 95 passing attempts in his college career. Because of that, I don’t believe Manning will be in the 2026 draft. But he has traits that could make him an intriguing option atop the draft if he has a big season.
The glimpses we saw last season were promising, as he threw for 939 yards, 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions while rushing for 106 yards and four scores. At 6-4, 222 pounds, Manning has the frame scouts covet and uses it effectively. He has a picture-perfect base and smooth delivery, and his dual-threat capability forces defenses to account for his running.
There is plenty for Manning to work on. He must become better at progressing past his first read, as his tendency to stick to it leads to bad decisions and forced throws. He also needs to use his mobility more and be more willing to scramble on dropbacks. That’s why I expect him to stick with Texas coach Steve Sarkisian, one of the best quarterback developers in the nation, and not rush to the NFL.
Long shots
The ‘out-of-nowhere’ quarterback
Since Joe Burrow‘s magical 2019 season catapulted him to the top in the 2020 draft, it has been common for under-the-radar quarterbacks to shoot up draft boards high into Round 1. Ward was one of four quarterbacks we identified in this section a year ago. This time around, there are two passers with Day 3 grades who could quickly rise.
John Mateer, QB, Oklahoma (2%): Mateer arrives at OU with high expectations after finishing with 3,139 passing yards, 29 touchdowns and 7 interceptions at Washington State in 2024. He’s one of the most competitive and confident passers I’ve studied on tape in this class and makes downfield throws with ease. Mateer is also mobile, running for 826 yards and 15 touchdowns last season. If he thrives against a schedule that has a Week 2 matchup with Michigan plus eight SEC games, his stock will rise.
Sam Leavitt, QB, Arizona State (2%): Cam Skattebo got most of the attention during Arizona State’s massive turnaround last season, but Leavitt also played a big part, passing for 2,885 yards, 24 touchdowns and 6 interceptions after transferring from Michigan State. He is a calm passer who can spread and shred defenses. With Skattebo off to the NFL, Leavitt will be the focal point of the Sun Devils’ bid to repeat as Big 12 champions.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 1%
Why he could be the top pick: Woods is currently the top-ranked player on my board, and the 6-3 315-pounder is the catalyst of one of the nation’s best defenses. But it’s been 31 years since a defensive tackle was taken with the top pick (Dan Wilkinson, 1994) and six years since an interior defensive lineman was picked in the top five (Quinnen Williams, 2019).
Woods played a lot off the edge last season but stayed disruptive as a run defender. He had only three sacks last season as a sophomore, but his explosive power allowed him to penetrate the backfield as a pass rusher. He’ll get more snaps inside this season as a 3-technique under new defensive coordinator Tom Allen. If he can convert more pass rushes into sacks, Woods could be a top-five pick come April.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 1%
Why he could be the top pick: Fano was the most consistent blocker on tape in 2024, which is why he’s my top-rated offensive tackle. The 6-3 302-pounder needs to add weight, but he has the quickness and fluidity to match up with speedy edge rushers and the power to bury defenders in run blocking.
Fano is also versatile, transitioning to right tackle as a sophomore in 2024 and allowing only one sack after playing left tackle the season before. If he can pack on pounds and maintain his level of intensity and lower-half suddenness, he could be the first tackle picked in a deep class of prospects.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 1%
Why he could be the top pick: Proctor has the size (6-7, 360 pounds) to go very high in the draft, and his best tape is one of a top-10 pick. But he’s a polarizing prospect because of his inconsistent play.
At his best, he has the power and pop in his hands to quickly overwhelm rushers at the point of attack. He’s forceful in the run game and generates movement with ease. His pass protection is where he needs improvement, as there are hot and cold spurts in Proctor’s play. Scouts want to see him play to his potential more as a pass blocker. If he does, he could be the first blocker off the board.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 1%
Why he could be the top pick: World is the ultimate wild card in this exercise, as the 6-8, 312-pound tackle is stepping up in competition after transferring from Nevada this offseason. But his traits are outstanding. World is an above-average athlete and has foot quickness that is among the best of any blocker in the 2026 class.
Scouts want to see him put all his traits together. Even though World didn’t allow a sack last season, he drew eight penalties (five for holding, three for unsportsmanlike conduct). He must reduce the penalties while handling the bump up in competition. If he can combine his quick feet with his lower-half suddenness and flashes in the run game, World will be a player to watch early in Round 1.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 1%
Why he could be the top pick: Since the common draft era started in 1967, there hasn’t been a safety drafted with the No. 1 pick. That’s a trend that’s likely to continue, but it says a lot that Downs is somewhat in the conversation.
The 6-foot 205-pounder transferred from Alabama — where he was stellar as a freshman in 2023 — to Ohio State last year, helping the Buckeyes to a national championship. He had 77 tackles last season and is a wrap-up-and-finish tackler against the run. He also excels in coverage, allowing only 28.6% of passes to be completed in his coverage (fifth best in the FBS). Downs also has two touchdown returns in his career.
Shohei Ohtani launched his 53rd home run to tie for the National League lead as the Los Angeles Dodgers erased an early four-run deficit Saturday night in a 7-5 victory over the San Francisco Giants.
Ohtani pulled even with Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber when the Japanese star connected for a 403-foot shot to left field in the sixth inning. It was Ohtani’s 29th homer at Dodger Stadium this season, a franchise record. He topped his own mark of 28 last year, when he finished with a career-high 54 on the way to winning his third MVP award and first in the National League.
“I think that the home run title will be great. But I think it’s just a byproduct of taking good at-bats, and he’s playing to win,” Roberts said. “If there’s a walk that’s needed and they’re not pitching to him, he’s taking his walks. And if they make a mistake, he’s making them pay.”
Ohtani also scored his career-high 140th run of the season.
Another remarkable season by the two-way star had the rest of his clubhouse touting the case for a third straight MVP award.
“I haven’t looked up any deep numbers or anything like that, but I think [the MVP is] Shohei,” said starter Tyler Glasnow, who rebounded from a four-run first inning with four scoreless innings to get the win. “He pitches and hits. I think it’s obviously Shohei, in my mind.”
Max Muncy‘s two-run homer in the first inning pulled Los Angeles to 4-2. Michael Conforto also went deep and Tommy Edman hit a tiebreaking shot for the playoff-bound Dodgers, who won their fourth straight and lead the NL West by four games over the San Diego Padres with seven to play.
The Giants stayed four games behind the New York Mets for the last NL wild card, with the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks also ahead of the Giants.
Jack Dreyer pitched a perfect ninth for his fourth save.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
After four weeks of the season, we might have an idea about the true College Football Playoff contenders in each conference.
While a few of the top teams in the SEC and the Big Ten were off in Week 4, the Texas Tech Red Raiders, Indiana Hoosiers, Oklahoma Sooners and Miami Hurricanes got the spotlight.
A surprise team in the 2024 CFP, Indiana put up big numbers on the Illinois Fighting Illini. Fernando Mendoza threw five TD passes in the 63-10 win. The Hoosiers still have the Oregon Ducks and the Penn State Nittany Lions on the schedule, but Indiana passed a conference test in hopes of landing another playoff bid.
The Sooners are trying to jump into the SEC playoff picture in their second season in the league. Oklahoma opened conference play by rocking former Sooners quarterback Jackson Arnold and the Auburn Tigers. OU sacked Arnold 10 times in its 24-17 win.
Miami, one of only two AP top-five teams in action this week, got a test from the 1-3 Florida Gators before closing out a 26-7 win. The Canes’ defense held the Gators to 32 yards in the first half and kept DJ Lagway under 100 yards passing.
Here are our experts’ top 12 College Football Playoff picks:
Andrea Adelson: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. LSU 4. Oklahoma 5. Georgia 6. Oregon 7. Florida State 8. Texas A&M 9. Penn State 10. Indiana 11. TCU 12. Memphis
Kyle Bonagura: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Miami 7. Florida State 8. Indiana 9. Oklahoma 10. Texas 11. Texas Tech 12. South Florida
Bill Connelly: 1. Oregon 2. Ohio State 3. Ole Miss 4. Texas A&M 5. Penn State 6. Miami 7. Georgia 8. Texas Tech 9. LSU 10. Florida State 11. Indiana 12. Memphis
David Hale: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Oregon 4. Georgia 5. Oklahoma 6. Penn State 7. Texas A&M 8. Texas 9. Indiana 10. Florida State 11. Texas Tech 12. Memphis
Max Olson: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Miami 4. Georgia 5. LSU 6. Penn State 7. Texas A&M 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Indiana 11. Texas 12. South Florida
Adam Rittenberg: 1. Ohio State 2. Georgia 3. Miami 4. Oregon 5. LSU 6. Penn State 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Indiana 10. Texas Tech 11. Texas A&M 12. South Florida
Mark Schlabach: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. LSU 5. Oregon 6. Penn State 7. Florida State 8. Oklahoma 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Jake Trotter: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Oregon 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Paolo Uggetti: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Georgia 4. Miami 5. Penn State 6. LSU 7. Oklahoma 8. Indiana 9. Texas Tech 10. Florida State 11. Texas A&M 12. Memphis
Dave Wilson: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Oregon 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Is the U back?!
It’s been a minute.
With Miami’s win against rival Florida on Saturday night, the U — winners of five titles between 1983 and 2001 — made a case to be the top team in the country once again.
This is a program that hasn’t won an ACC title since joining the league in 2004, and now the Canes have positioned themselves as not only the top playoff contender in the conference, but also as the top team in the country. It’s still early, but statement wins are hard to come by, and Miami’s résumé now includes wins against Notre Dame, a ranked South Florida and rival Florida.
The 13-member College Football Playoff selection committee doesn’t release its first ranking until Nov. 4, but based on what each team has done to date, Miami is one of the few teams that has looked like the total package.
The list below is fluid — and will continue to be early in the season. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: With wins against Notre Dame, South Florida and now rival Florida, Miami has the best combination of eye test and résumé. It didn’t come easy against the Gators, but Miami’s defense was stifling for the bulk of the game. The selection committee considers the intangibles that accompany a rivalry game and would acknowledge the difficulty of the win, even though Florida is struggling this year. As talented as Ohio State is, Miami now has a stronger case, given the Buckeyes’ best win was against a Texas team that has since fallen out of the projected top 12. Miami has cemented itself as the ACC’s top playoff contender — at least until it’s decided on the field on Oct. 4 against Florida State.
Why they could be lower: If the committee were to rank Ohio State No. 1 at this point, it would simply be because some members think the Buckeyes are more talented.
Need to know: Miami has the best chance of any Power 4 team in the country to win out (19.3%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives Miami a 66.1% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The selection committee doesn’t typically move teams if they don’t play, unless there is movement around them — and Miami’s résumé bumped the Canes to the top spot this week. Ohio State’s season-opening win against Texas is still one of the best nonconference wins of the season, but that’s all the Buckeyes have at the moment. A win against Ohio and a 70-0 drubbing of FCS Grambling won’t impress the committee. A win against Texas will, but how much the committee values it on Selection Day depends on how the Longhorns fare all season.
Why they could be higher: If the committee has the Buckeyes at No. 1, it’s going to be by a paper-thin margin. Statistically, Ohio State and Miami entered the week almost dead even in all three phases of the game.
Need to know: According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Ohio State entered this week tied with Georgia and Oregon for the best chance in the country to reach the CFP (77%).
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Buckeyes a 64.9% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The 44-41 overtime win against Tennessee in Week 3 gave the Bulldogs their first statement win against a ranked opponent, and the committee will note that it was on the road. It helped slightly this week that Tennessee showed no signs of a letdown in a lopsided win against overmatched UAB.
Why they could be lower: The win against the Vols might not be enough. Georgia’s other wins are against Marshall and FCS Austin Peay.
Need to know: ESPN’s FPI projects Georgia will win each of its remaining games, which would put the Bulldogs back in the SEC title game. What happens, though, if they lose to Alabama on Saturday? There’s still plenty of time — and opportunity — to impress the committee with wins against opponents such as Auburn, Ole Miss, Texas and Georgia Tech. It’s possible that Georgia could have a win over the eventual ACC champion or runner-up.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Alabama. This game is at home, and the Bulldogs have an extra week to prepare for it, but the Tide have shown continuous improvement since their season-opening loss to Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 55% chance to win. Even with a loss, the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Georgia a 65.2% chance to reach the playoff, independent of other results.
Why they could be here: Florida State has been dominant, ranking No. 3 in the country in ESPN’s game control metric. The Noles also entered this week ranked No. 3 in strength of record. The Seminoles are passing the eye test but still need to beef up their résumé beyond a season-opening win against Alabama. The Tide were off this week but have played well against each of their past two unranked opponents, continuing to make Florida State’s win valuable in the committee meeting room. The Seminoles, though, won’t have another chance to impress the group against a ranked opponent until Oct. 4 against Miami.
Why they could be lower: FSU’s statistics are a bit skewed by the Noles’ 77-3 drubbing of FCS team East Texas A&M.
Need to know: Georgia Tech doesn’t face Florida State or Miami during the regular season but could play one of them in the ACC title game. That makes the regular-season rivalry game between the Noles and Canes critical to the ACC race. Entering Week 4, Miami (68%) and Georgia Tech (39.3%) had the best chances to reach the ACC championship game, followed by Florida State (24.1%).
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 vs. Miami. ESPN’s FPI gives the Canes a 66.1% chance to win. November games at Clemson and Florida no longer look as daunting.
Why they could be here: The Tigers’ two best wins — against Clemson and Florida — are now against unranked teams with losing records. Florida State has looked better offensively, and its win against Alabama is better than LSU’s wins. The Tigers’ defense, though, has been something the committee members would notice. LSU hasn’t allowed any opponent more than 10 points this season and is fifth in the country in defensive efficiency.
Why they could be lower: Some questions remain about the offensive line, which features four new starters and hasn’t always given quarterback Garrett Nussmeier the time he needs. Nussmeier entered Saturday averaging 5.88 air yards per pass attempt, and the Tigers are still searching for more explosive plays. LSU’s 17 explosive plays entering Saturday were the fewest in the SEC. LSU is No. 62 in the country in offensive efficiency. The selection committee looks for teams that are in the top 10 in both offense and defense.
Need to know: LSU has a chance to enhance its résumé on Saturday at Ole Miss, where a win would be its most impressive to date and provide some cushion for a tough upcoming stretch. LSU’s schedule is No. 9 in the country, according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 77.1% chance to win.
Why they could be here: Texas A&M had a bye this week after earning one of the best nonconference wins in the country last week at Notre Dame. The Aggies saw their playoff chances increase by 26% following that win. Texas A&M entered this week with a 47% chance to make the playoff. Still, the Aggies are clinging to one win to boost their entire résumé right now, as the rest of their schedule includes UTSA and Utah State.
Why they could be higher: Texas A&M entered this week ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of metric record, which means the average top-25 opponent would have a 37% chance of achieving the same 3-0 record against the same opponents. Some committee members would view the Aggies’ win at Notre Dame as more impressive than the Canes’ win against the Irish because Texas A&M had to win on the road.
Need to know: If Texas A&M doesn’t win the SEC, and it finishes as a 10-2 team — and Notre Dame runs the table and also finishes 10-2 — the selection committee would use the head-to-head result as one of its tiebreakers and give the Aggies the edge. ESPN’s FPI, though, gives Texas A&M less than a 50% chance to beat LSU, Missouri and Texas.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at LSU. The Aggies also have a very difficult trip to rival Texas in the regular-season finale, but right now the Tigers look like a tougher out on the road. ESPN’s FPI gives LSU a 51.6% chance to win.
Why they could be here: Wins against Michigan and Auburn have legitimized the Sooners’ playoff hopes, giving them two quality wins against what could be CFP top 25 opponents. The win against the Wolverines helps separate OU from other contenders with weaker nonconference wins, and it looks even better after the Wolverines beat Nebraska on the road. The selection committee also appreciates star power, and the Sooners have it with quarterback John Mateer, who has a passing and rushing touchdown in 10 straight games.
Why they could be higher: Mateer has been the story early, but the defense and its 10 sacks were the highlight in the win against Auburn, giving the committee a complete team to consider. The wins against Michigan and Auburn might also outweigh the Aggies’ lone win at Notre Dame, though it was on the road and OU won both of its big games at home. The committee would debate if two good wins outweigh one great one — an argument that could also be made with regard to Florida State and its win over Alabama.
Need to know: The Sooners have the fourth-toughest schedule in the FBS, according to ESPN Analytics, so the undefeated start provides a critical cushion for a backloaded schedule that could include as many as six ranked opponents in the final seven games.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Tennessee. Given how tough the Vols played in their overtime loss to Georgia, this should be another slugfest between two talented teams. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 64.3% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Ducks continue to dismantle weaker competition, including their winless in-state rival Oregon State (0-4) on Saturday. Oregon’s place in the playoff order has nothing to do with résumé and everything to do with dominant wins. The Ducks entered the week ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s game control metric, No. 3 in points margin and No. 2 in the country with 54 points per game. Oregon is No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 4 in defensive efficiency, making the Ducks one of the most complete teams in the country.
Why they could be lower: Montana State is an FCS team. Oklahoma State’s program has imploded. And a win against Northwestern amounts to a shoulder shrug. The stats are inflated because of the opponents the Ducks beat.
Need to know: Oregon has the best chance in the Big Ten to make the conference championship game (55.1%) and win it (34%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 52% chance to win — it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule they’re not favored to win.
Why they could be here: The Nittany Lions had a bye this week, and wins against Nevada, Florida International and Villanova are keeping them behind contenders with better résumés. Penn State entered Week 4 ranked No. 41 in ESPN’s strength of record metric — and every team listed above is ranked in the top 20.
Why they could be lower: Penn State ranks No. 71 in the country in offensive efficiency — well below what’s typical of past playoff participants. No wins against Power 4 opponents would also hold the Nittany Lions back. Quarterback Drew Allar entered the week ranked No. 111 in QBR (38.4) and has just four touchdowns and one interception.
Need to know: Penn State hosts Oregon on Saturday in a game that will finally reveal how seriously to take the Nittany Lions. ESPN’s FPI gives Penn State a 52% chance to win. If it doesn’t, it will likely need to beat Ohio State on the road to get a chance at the Big Ten title game — and possibly a rematch with Oregon. Without a win against the Ducks OR Ohio State — and with no Big Ten title game appearance — Penn State’s best chance for a notable win would be against Indiana on Nov. 8. A 10-2 Notre Dame would arguably have a better résumé with the same record.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule for which ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 64.9% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The selection committee considers how teams win — and how they lose — and the Vols have managed to do both as well as can be expected. The committee isn’t going to penalize Tennessee for its 44-41 overtime loss to Georgia, though it will keep the Vols behind the Dawgs as long as their records are comparable. And the season-opening win against Syracuse looks even better after the Orange won at Clemson on Saturday.
Why they could be lower: The Vols are still missing a true statement win, though Syracuse can be a CFP Top 25 team on Selection Day.
Need to know: The Vols’ chances of reaching the SEC title game are slim, according to ESPN Analytics, which gives Tennessee just an 8.1% chance to reach the game and a 4.4% chance to win the title. Tennessee earned a spot in the playoff last year, though, as an at-large team, and can do that again, but it can’t go 0-2 against Alabama and Oklahoma.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 66.3% chance to win. It’s the only game on the schedule the Vols aren’t projected to win.
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers have a convincing win against a veteran Illinois team that last week was in this spot. They had dominated their previous two opponents (Kennesaw State and FCS Indiana State), but this was the first chance to show the committee a complete performance against a ranked Big Ten opponent. The Illini had won each of their first three games by at least 25 points. The committee would also highlight the strong play of IU quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who leads the Big Ten in touchdown passes. He continued that success against an Illinois defense that had allowed only two passing touchdowns in three games.
Why they could be lower: Some committee members could be more impressed with Ole Miss, which entered this week ranked No. 6 in the country in ESPN’s strength of record metric. They could also consider a bigger boost for Texas Tech, which won on the road, whereas the Hoosiers won at home. The committee would also consider the injury to Texas Tech’s starting quarterback.
Need to know: If the Hoosiers are a playoff team for the second straight season, they will have earned it with a more difficult schedule this year, as they still have to face Oregon and Penn State — both on the road. If IU doesn’t win the Big Ten title, it probably needs to at least split with those opponents to win a debate with another contender for an at-large bid.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 at Oregon. ESPN’s FPI gives the Ducks an 82.3% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The win at Utah is better than anything Texas has on its résumé — and the Red Raiders got it done with their backup quarterback. With the win, Texas Tech’s chances of reaching the Big 12 title game jumped to 40%, according to ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech is also getting credit here for beating Oregon State in the same way Oregon did (the Red Raiders beat the Beavers 45-14 a week before the Ducks upended them 41-7 on Saturday). Beating a respectable Utah team, though, in the first Big 12 game for both teams helped Texas Tech enter the playoff conversation as the league’s new leading contender.
Why they could be lower: Ole Miss has had three straight wins against respectable opponents, including back-to-back wins against SEC opponents Kentucky and Arkansas earlier this month. The Rebels also have a case for moving into the committee’s top 12.
Need to know: If Texas Tech doesn’t win the Big 12, it could have trouble earning an at-large bid because it might not play another ranked opponent this season. It’s hard to imagine the committee leaving out a one-loss Big 12 runner-up, though. If the Red Raiders were to lose a close game to a ranked opponent in the league title game, they would still have a strong case for an at-large bid. If they finish as a two-loss runner-up, though, they could lose a debate for an at-large bid with another contender with a better résumé.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at BYU. ESPN’s FPI gives BYU a 51.4% chance to win. It’s the only remaining game the Red Raiders aren’t favored to win.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 LSU
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Texas A&M
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 LSU winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Penn State/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Penn State
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment12 months agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024