How is Starmer’s government doing? Here’s what ‘end-of-term’ report from voters says
One year on, how’s Keir Starmer’s government going? We’ve put together an end-of-term report with the help of pollster YouGov.
First, here are the government’s approval ratings – drifting downwards.
It didn’t start particularly high. There has never been a honeymoon.
But here is the big change. Last year’s Labour voters now disapprove of their own government. That wasn’t true at the start – but is now.
And remember, it’s easier to keep your existing voter coalition together than to get new ones from elsewhere.
So we have looked at where voters who backed Labour last year have gone now.
YouGov’s last mega poll shows half of Labour voters last year – 51% – say they would vote for them again if an election was held tomorrow.
Around one in five (19%) say they don’t know who they’d vote for – or wouldn’t vote.
But Labour are also leaking votes to the Lib Dems, Greens and Reform.
These are the main reasons why.
A sense that Labour haven’t delivered on their promises is top – just above the cost of living. Some 22% say they’ve been too right-wing, with a similar number saying Labour have “made no difference”. Immigration and public services are also up there.
Now, YouGov asked people whether they think the cabinet is doing a good or a bad job, and combined the two figures together to get a net score.
John Healey and Bridget Phillipson are on top, but the big beats of Angela Rayner, Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves bottom.
But it’s not over for Labour.
Here’s one scenario – 2024 Labour voters say they would much prefer a Labour-led government over a Conservative one.
But what about a Reform UK-led government? Well, Labour polls even better against them – just 11% of people who voted Labour in 2024 want to see them enter Number 10.
Signs of hope for Keir Starmer. But as Labour MPs head off for their summer holidays, few of their voters would give this government an A*.
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Chancellor Rachel Reeves has dodged calls from her predecessor Anneliese Dodds for a wealth tax to be considered ahead of this autumn’s budget.
When Sir Keir Starmer became Labour leader in 2020, Ms Dodds was his first pick for shadow chancellor. However, she did not last long and was replaced by Ms Reeves, who then got the government job after last year’s election win.
Speaking to the Sky News political editor Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast, Ms Dodds said she had examined wealth taxes when she was briefly in the shadow chancellor job and how one could be implemented.
She said: “I would hope the Treasury is considering that kind of evidence, as well as other changes that have been put forward.”
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‘Rachel Reeves would hate what you just said’
Asked today if about Ms Dodds’ intervention, Ms Reeves said: “Decisions around tax are decisions that are made at a budget and we’ll make those decisions in the appropriate way, but the number-one priority of this government is to grow the economy.
“And that means bringing more investment into Britain, creating more good jobs paying decent wages here in Britain.
Listen here to hear Ms Dodds’ full comments:
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“We’ve got to get the balance right on taxation because we want that investment, we want those jobs to come here.
“That’s why we’re reforming the planning system, secured three trade deals in the first year of this Labour government, cutting back on unnecessary regulation, and reforming our pension system to unlock money for businesses to be able to invest here in the UK.”
Read more:
2021: Dodds demoted, Reeves promoted
Dodds resigns from govt over aid cut
What is a wealth tax?
The government’s financial position is stretched ahead of the next budget, due at the end of autumn.
Ms Reeves has committed herself to not changing her fiscal rules, leaving little wiggle room to avoid tax rises or spending cuts.
This is due to the government’s inability to save money through policies like welfare reform, which were gutted due to a rebellion of backbench Labour MPs.
Last week, Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds branded the suggestion of a wealth tax “daft” – but he has less influence over the writing of the budget than the chancellor.
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Meanwhile, reports from the Daily Telegraph suggested that Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner backed increasing taxes, including reinstating the pensions lifetime allowance and a higher corporation tax level for banks.
Ms Dodds also wants to see those considered.
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