US trade war: The state of play as Trump signs order imposing new tariffs – but there are more delays
Donald Trump’s trade war has been difficult to keep up with, to put it mildly.
For all the threats and bluster of the US election campaign last year to the on-off implementation of trade tariffs – and more threats – since he returned to the White House in January, the president‘s protectionist agenda has been haphazard.
Trading partners, export-focused firms, customs agents and even his own trade team have had a lot on their plates as deadlines were imposed – and then retracted – and the tariff numbers tinkered.
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While the UK was the first country to secure a truce of sorts, described as a “deal”, the vast majority of nations have failed to secure any agreement.
Deal or no deal, no country is on better trading terms with the United States than it was when Trump 2.0 began.
Here, we examine what nations and blocs are on the hook for, and the potential consequences, as Mr Trump’s suspended “reciprocal” tariffs prepare to take effect. That will now not happen until 7 August.
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What does the UK-US trade deal involve?
Why was 1 August such an important date?
To understand the present day, we must first wind the clock back to early April.
Then, Mr Trump proudly showed off a board in the White House Rose Garden containing a list of countries and the tariffs they would immediately face in retaliation for the rates they impose on US-made goods. He called it “liberation day”.
The tariff numbers were big and financial markets took fright.
Just days later, the president announced a 90-day pause in those rates for all countries except China, to allow for negotiations.
The initial deadline of 9 July was then extended again to 1 August. Late on 31 July, Mr Trump signed the executive order but said that the tariff rates would not kick in for seven additional days to allow for the orders to be fully communicated.
Since April, only eight countries or trading blocs have agreed “deals” to limit the reciprocal tariffs and – in some cases – sectoral tariffs already in place.
Who has agreed a deal over the past 120 days?
The UK, Japan, Indonesia, the European Union and South Korea are among the eight to be facing lower rates than had been threatened back in April.
China has not really done a deal but it is no longer facing punitive tariffs above 100%.
Its decision to retaliate against US levies prompted a truce level to be agreed between the pair, pending further talks.
There’s a backlash against the EU over its deal, with many national leaders accusing the European Commission of giving in too easily. A broad 15% rate is to apply, down from the threatened 30%, while the bloc has also committed to US investment and to pay for US-produced natural gas.
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Millions of EU jobs were in firing line
Where does the UK stand?
We’ve already mentioned that the UK was the first to avert the worst of what was threatened.
While a 10% baseline tariff covers the vast majority of the goods we send to the US, aerospace products are exempt.
Our steel sector has not been subjected to Trump’s 50% tariffs and has been facing down a 25% rate. The government announced on Thursday that it would not apply under the terms of a quota system.
UK car exports were on a 25% rate until the end of June when the deal agreed in May took that down to 10% under a similar quota arrangement that exempts the first 100,000 cars from a levy.
Who has not done a deal?
Canada is among the big names facing a 35% baseline tariff rate. That is up from 25% and covers all goods not subject to a US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that involves rules of origin.
America is its biggest export market and it has long been in Trump’s sights.
Mexico, another country deeply ingrained in the US supply chain, is facing a 30% rate but has been given an extra 90 days to secure a deal.
Brazil is facing a 50% rate. For India, it’s 25%.
What are the consequences?
This is where it all gets a bit woolly – for good reasons.
The trade war is unprecedented in scale, given the global nature of modern business.
It takes time for official statistics to catch up, especially when tariff rates chop and change so much.
Any duties on exports to the United States are a threat to company sales and economic growth alike – in both the US and the rest of the world. Many carmakers, for example, have refused to offer guidance on their outlooks for revenue and profits.
Apple warned on Thursday night that US tariffs would add $1.1bn of costs in the three months to September alone.
Barriers to business are never good but the International Monetary Fund earlier this week raised its forecast for global economic growth this year from 2.8% to 3%.
Some of that increase can be explained by the deals involving major economies, including Japan, the EU and UK.
US growth figures have been skewed by the rush to beat import tariffs.
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The big risk ahead?
It’s a self-inflicted wound.
The elephant in the room is inflation. Countries imposing duties on their imports force the recipient of those goods to foot the additional bill. Do the buyers swallow it or pass it on?
The latest US data contained strong evidence that tariff charges were now making their way down the country’s supply chains, threatening to squeeze American consumers in the months ahead.
It’s why the US central bank has been refusing demands from Mr Trump to cut interest rates. You don’t slow the pace of price rises by making borrowing costs cheaper.
A prolonged period of higher inflation would not go down well with US businesses or voters. It’s why financial markets have followed a recent trend known as TACO, helping stock markets remain at record levels.
The belief is that Trump always chickens out. He may have to back down if inflation takes off.
US
‘He must have got this from K’: What mistaken tweet tells us about ‘secret’ plan to end Ukraine war
There are developments in the quest for peace in Ukraine.
It’s been one of those days when different snippets of news have come together to create a picture of sorts. The jigsaw remains complicated, but the suggestion is neither the Ukrainians nor the Europeans have been privy to the developments.
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The most intriguing development came at lunchtime on Thursday.
“He must have got this from K…” wrote Donald Trump‘s special envoy Steve Witkoff on X. He clearly thought he was sending a private message.
He was replying to a scoop of a story by Axios’s Barak Ravid.
Steve Witkoff, Trump’s envoy for the Middle East and trusted Ukraine peace plan man. Pic: Reuters
The story revealed a “secret” plan to end the Ukraine war. The report suggested the Americans had been talking secretly to the Russians about a renewed effort to bring the war to an end, which involved Ukraine ceding land it still controls to Russia.
Who is “K” in Witkoff’s message? It’s probably Kirill Dmitriev, who has become Putin’s unofficial and unlikely envoy to Washington. Kyiv-born and Stanford-educated Dmitriev is, essentially, Witkoff’s Russian opposite number.
In a sense, they are the yin and yang of this geopolitical puzzle. Witkoff is a real estate mogul. Dmitriev is an economist. They are opposing forces with backgrounds that are, on the face of it, equally unsuited to geopolitical conflict resolution. Yet their two leaders are trusting them with this huge task.
Kirill Dmitriev was in Alaska for the Trump-Putin summit earlier this year. Pic: Reuters
‘Territorial concessions’ in 28-point plan
So, back to the developments to have emerged over the last 24 hours.
First, we know senior US Department of War officials, including Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, have arrived in the Ukrainian capital to meet their counterparts there.
Their visit was scheduled but the focus shifted. The plan to discuss drone technology and the winter offensive morphed into a discussion about a Russian-presented peace plan Witkoff and Dmitriev had been discussing.
Rescue workers clear rubble after a Russian strike on Ternopil, Ukraine. Pic: AP
This is the second development. The Axios report – which Witkoff seems inadvertently to have suggested came from Dmitriev – claims the two envoys met recently in Florida (Witkoff’s base) to discuss a 28-point plan for peace.
A defence official told our partners at NBC News that Driscoll has been briefed on the 28-point plan. Driscoll and his military staff are thought to have been presenting an initial brief to the Ukrainian side of this Russian-sponsored plan.
Ukrainian sources have suggested to me in clear terms they are not happy with this Witkoff-Dmitriev plan. Sources tell me it includes “territorial concessions” and “reductions in military strength”. The Ukrainian position is the plan represents the latest attempt to “play the American government”.
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Death toll rises after Russian strikes
What’s happening with security guarantees?
Ukraine wants security guarantees from the US. Trump signalled during Zelenskyy’s last visit to Washington that he was willing to provide those. This was framed by the Europeans as a huge positive development, even though the White House did not spell out the crucial detail – what would these guarantees actually entail?
The latest reporting, from Axios, suggests the security guarantees (still undefined, publicly at least) are dependent on Ukraine giving up the whole of the Donbas region – this would include about 15% of territory Russia does not currently hold.
Crucially, the areas of the Donbas from which Ukraine would withdraw (the 15%) would be considered a demilitarised zone. The plan is very similar to one floated by Vice President JD Vance in the months before Trump won last year’s election, which was roundly rejected as a non-starter at the time.
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Is Gaza plan the model?
Another source, from a third country close to the negotiations, has told me the Qataris are playing a role in the talks and were present at the weekend when Steve Witkoff met Ukraine’s national security advisor Rustem Umerov last weekend.
Qatari and Turkish mediation, along with the multipoint peace plan for Gaza, is being projected as a model transferable to Ukraine despite the conflict, challenges, and root causes being wholly different.
Other European sources told me this morning they were not aware of this Russian-American plan. It’s worth remembering it’s in the interests of the Russians to be seen to be engaged in peace proposals in order to avoid secondary sanctions from the US.
Zelenskyy has been in Turkey over the past 24 hours, where he singled out Trump’s efforts to find peace.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Recep Tayyip Erdogan at a press conference in Ankara. Pic: AP
“Since the beginning of this year, we in Ukraine have supported every decisive step and the leadership of @POTUS, every strong and fair proposal aimed at ending this war.” Zelenskyy wrote. “And only President Trump and the United States have sufficient power to make this war come to an end.”
This is the vital language of flattery.
They’ve said they are offering him an opportunity to tell them everything, once and for all.
But as we hit the two-week deadline set by the US Congress committee investigating Jeffrey Epstein for a reply from Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, will he agree to their request to open up about the paedophile financier?
The letter sent by the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform said members wanted to talk to him because of the widely reported allegations that have been made against him, which he denies, and because of his relationship with Epstein and what he may have seen.
The committee is looking into Epstein’s crimes and his wider sex trafficking network. Andrew was given until today, 20 November, to respond.
Legally he isn’t obliged to talk to them, and to be honest it’s hard to imagine why he would.
The only time he has spoken at length about the allegations against him and his relationship with Epstein was that Newsnight interview in 2019, and we all know how much of a disaster that was.
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Releasing the Epstein files: How we got here
Yes, this could be an opportunity for him to publicly apologise for keeping up his links with Epstein, which he has never done before, or show some sympathy towards Epstein’s victims, even as he vehemently denies the allegations against him.
But while there is the moral argument that he should tell the committee everything he knows, it could also raise more uncomfortable questions for him, and that could feel like too much of a risk for Andrew and the wider Royal Family.
However, even saying no won’t draw all this to a close. There are other outstanding loose ends.
The Metropolitan Police still have to tell us if they intend to take any further action after they said they were looking into claims Andrew had asked one of his officers to dig up dirt on his accuser, Virginia Giuffre.
Read more:
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Bill to release Epstein files gets all-clear from Congress
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The new Epstein files: The key takeaways
There could also still be a debate in parliament about the Andrew problem.
The Liberal Democrats have said they want to use their opposition debating time to bring the issue to the floor of the House of Commons, while other MPs on the Public Accounts Committee have signalled their intention to look into Andrew’s finances and housing arrangements.
And then there are the wider Epstein files over in America, and what information they may hold.
From developments this week, it seems we are edging ever closer to seeing those released.
All of this may mean Andrew in other ways is forced to say more than he wants to, even without opening up to the Congress committee.
Donald Trump has signed a bill approving the release of files relating to Jeffrey Epstein by the US Justice Department.
“I HAVE JUST SIGNED THE BILL TO RELEASE THE EPSTEIN FILES!” he said in a Truth Social post, following a lengthy preamble aimed at discrediting the Democrats.
“Democrats have used the ‘Epstein’ issue, which affects them far more than the Republican Party, in order to try and distract from our AMAZING Victories,” he continued.
Donald Trump speaking in Washington earlier on Wednesday. Pic: Reuters
It comes after the Senate finished the formalities and sent the proposed legislation to the president’s desk, having comfortably cleared a vote in the House of Representatives on Tuesday.
The Justice Department now has 30 days to release the documents it holds on the paedophile financier.
How did we get here?
Mr Trump promised during last year’s election campaign to release the Epstein files in full, but has since spent months decrying them as a Democratic “hoax”.
His links to the Epstein have long been subject to scrutiny. Mr Trump has always denied any wrongdoing.
His change of heart on releasing the files came as a surprise over the weekend, as he called on Republicans in Congress to vote for the so-called Epstein Files Bill and indicated he’d sign it.
“Because of this request, the votes were almost unanimous in favor [sic] of passage,” Mr Trump wrote in his late-night post announcing the signing of the bill.
The House of Representatives was indeed near unanimous in voting for the material to be released, with 427 in favour and one against.
Hot on the heels of that vote, which was met with cheers in the chamber, the Senate said it too would pass the bill.
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House passes bill to release all Epstein files
Trump tries to tie Democrats to Epstein
Mr Trump’s post repeatedly labels Epstein as a Democrat, citing his past associations with the likes of Bill Clinton.
Mr Trump has said he wants the Justice Department to investigate Epstein’s links to Mr Clinton, former treasury secretary Larry Summers, and Reid Hoffman, the LinkedIn founder, who is also a prominent Democratic donor.
All three men were mentioned in the 20,000 other Epstein-related documents released by Congress’s House Oversight Committee last week. None of them, however, have been accused of wrongdoing in the case.
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Emails, photos and other documents released by Congress in recent weeks have included references to Mr Trump, the UK’s since sacked US ambassador Lord Mandelson, and former British prince Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, who has faced calls from members of the committee to give evidence.
Like Mr Trump, both Britons have denied any wrongdoing and expressed regret about their relationship with Epstein.
The deadline for Mr Mountbatten-Windsor to respond to an official request from the committee is today.
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What’s at stake for Andrew at US Congress committee?
Unrest in MAGA world
The issue has proved to be a major source of division within Mr Trump’s Make America Great Again movement.
Marjorie Taylor Greene, a long-time Trump backer who publicly fell out with the president just days ago, stood with Epstein survivors on the steps of the Capitol ahead of Tuesday’s Congress votes.
She said: “These women have fought the most horrific fight that no woman should have to fight. And they did it by banding together and never giving up.”
Read more: Who is Marjorie Taylor Greene?
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‘A day Trump didn’t want to see for a long time’
Epstein died by suicide in his prison cell in August 2019, while awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges.
He was already a registered sex offender after pleading guilty in 2008 to Florida state changes of unlawfully paying a teenage girl for sex.
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