US trade war: The state of play as Trump signs order imposing new tariffs – but there are more delays
Donald Trump’s trade war has been difficult to keep up with, to put it mildly.
For all the threats and bluster of the US election campaign last year to the on-off implementation of trade tariffs – and more threats – since he returned to the White House in January, the president‘s protectionist agenda has been haphazard.
Trading partners, export-focused firms, customs agents and even his own trade team have had a lot on their plates as deadlines were imposed – and then retracted – and the tariff numbers tinkered.
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While the UK was the first country to secure a truce of sorts, described as a “deal”, the vast majority of nations have failed to secure any agreement.
Deal or no deal, no country is on better trading terms with the United States than it was when Trump 2.0 began.
Here, we examine what nations and blocs are on the hook for, and the potential consequences, as Mr Trump’s suspended “reciprocal” tariffs prepare to take effect. That will now not happen until 7 August.
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What does the UK-US trade deal involve?
Why was 1 August such an important date?
To understand the present day, we must first wind the clock back to early April.
Then, Mr Trump proudly showed off a board in the White House Rose Garden containing a list of countries and the tariffs they would immediately face in retaliation for the rates they impose on US-made goods. He called it “liberation day”.
The tariff numbers were big and financial markets took fright.
Just days later, the president announced a 90-day pause in those rates for all countries except China, to allow for negotiations.
The initial deadline of 9 July was then extended again to 1 August. Late on 31 July, Mr Trump signed the executive order but said that the tariff rates would not kick in for seven additional days to allow for the orders to be fully communicated.
Since April, only eight countries or trading blocs have agreed “deals” to limit the reciprocal tariffs and – in some cases – sectoral tariffs already in place.
Who has agreed a deal over the past 120 days?
The UK, Japan, Indonesia, the European Union and South Korea are among the eight to be facing lower rates than had been threatened back in April.
China has not really done a deal but it is no longer facing punitive tariffs above 100%.
Its decision to retaliate against US levies prompted a truce level to be agreed between the pair, pending further talks.
There’s a backlash against the EU over its deal, with many national leaders accusing the European Commission of giving in too easily. A broad 15% rate is to apply, down from the threatened 30%, while the bloc has also committed to US investment and to pay for US-produced natural gas.
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Millions of EU jobs were in firing line
Where does the UK stand?
We’ve already mentioned that the UK was the first to avert the worst of what was threatened.
While a 10% baseline tariff covers the vast majority of the goods we send to the US, aerospace products are exempt.
Our steel sector has not been subjected to Trump’s 50% tariffs and has been facing down a 25% rate. The government announced on Thursday that it would not apply under the terms of a quota system.
UK car exports were on a 25% rate until the end of June when the deal agreed in May took that down to 10% under a similar quota arrangement that exempts the first 100,000 cars from a levy.
Who has not done a deal?
Canada is among the big names facing a 35% baseline tariff rate. That is up from 25% and covers all goods not subject to a US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that involves rules of origin.
America is its biggest export market and it has long been in Trump’s sights.
Mexico, another country deeply ingrained in the US supply chain, is facing a 30% rate but has been given an extra 90 days to secure a deal.
Brazil is facing a 50% rate. For India, it’s 25%.
What are the consequences?
This is where it all gets a bit woolly – for good reasons.
The trade war is unprecedented in scale, given the global nature of modern business.
It takes time for official statistics to catch up, especially when tariff rates chop and change so much.
Any duties on exports to the United States are a threat to company sales and economic growth alike – in both the US and the rest of the world. Many carmakers, for example, have refused to offer guidance on their outlooks for revenue and profits.
Apple warned on Thursday night that US tariffs would add $1.1bn of costs in the three months to September alone.
Barriers to business are never good but the International Monetary Fund earlier this week raised its forecast for global economic growth this year from 2.8% to 3%.
Some of that increase can be explained by the deals involving major economies, including Japan, the EU and UK.
US growth figures have been skewed by the rush to beat import tariffs.
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The big risk ahead?
It’s a self-inflicted wound.
The elephant in the room is inflation. Countries imposing duties on their imports force the recipient of those goods to foot the additional bill. Do the buyers swallow it or pass it on?
The latest US data contained strong evidence that tariff charges were now making their way down the country’s supply chains, threatening to squeeze American consumers in the months ahead.
It’s why the US central bank has been refusing demands from Mr Trump to cut interest rates. You don’t slow the pace of price rises by making borrowing costs cheaper.
A prolonged period of higher inflation would not go down well with US businesses or voters. It’s why financial markets have followed a recent trend known as TACO, helping stock markets remain at record levels.
The belief is that Trump always chickens out. He may have to back down if inflation takes off.
US President Donald Trump has said he believes Ukraine could retake all its occupied territory and described Russia as a “paper tiger”.
Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Sky News correspondent Mark Stone it was a “big shift” from his US counterpart.
Mr Trump, speaking to French President Emmanuel Macron at the United Nations in New York, said his relationship with Vladimir Putin had turned out to be meaningless.
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Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United Nations. Pic: Reuters
Writing on Truth Social, the US president said: “I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.
“With time, patience, and the financial support of Europe and, in particular, NATO, the original Borders from where this War started, is very much an option.”
Mr Trump wrote that he had gained a greater understanding of the “economic trouble” the war was causing Moscow.
He said Russia had been “fighting aimlessly” for three-and-a-half years and had it been a “real military power” it would have defeated Ukraine in less than a week.
Mr Trump added: “This is not distinguishing Russia. In fact, it is very much making them look like ‘a paper tiger’.”
Mr Trump’s tone contrasted greatly with his red-carpet treatment for the Russian president at a summit in Alaska last month, part of a push to expedite an end to the war in Ukraine.
The US president has previously suggested Ukraine would never be able to reclaim all the territory Russia has occupied since seizing the Crimean Peninsula in 2014.
Mr Zelenskyy later said he was surprised by Mr Trump’s comments, telling Fox News’ Special Report he has a better relationship with the US president than before.
He said the comments were a very positive signal Mr Trump and the US will be with Ukraine until the end of the war.
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Earlier on Tuesday, while talking to Mr Zelenskyy at the United Nations, Mr Trump was asked by reporters whether he thought NATO should shoot down Russian planes if they entered NATO airspace.
“Yes, I do,” Mr Trump replied.
Asked whether the US would support NATO in shooting down Russian aircraft, Mr Trump said it depended on the circumstances.
On Truth Social, he said the US would continue to supply weapons to NATO and it was for the military alliance to “do what they want with them”.
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Trump attacks UN and London mayor
Ukraine, he said, with the “support of the European Union”, is in a position to “fight and win all of Ukraine back in its original form”.
Kyiv would need the “financial support of Europe and, in particular, NATO”, he said.
But, given those caveats, he said the “original borders from where this war started is very much an option”.
In a joint statement following the president’s comments, G7 foreign ministers said discussions were ongoing about additional economic sanctions on Russia.
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Mr Trump also suggested the Russian people are not aware of “what is really going on with this war”.
He added: “Most of their money is being spent on fighting Ukraine. Putin and Russia are in big economic trouble and this is the time for Ukraine to act.”
Ukraine has lost large areas of land in the east of the country. In the Donetsk region, Russia now controls about 70% of the territory. Kyiv’s forces have been pushed back to a string of four cities analysts have dubbed the “fortress belt”.
Moscow has partly annexed three other regions, too: Luhansk in the east, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson further west.
The situation in Ukraine on 19 September
Meanwhile, Russia appears to be provoking its neighbours to the west. Last week, Estonia said three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violated its airspace for 12 minutes before Italian NATO jets escorted them away.
The week before, about 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace, prompting NATO jets to shoot some of them down.
NATO has now beefed up its defence of Europe’s eastern flank.
US
Ryan Routh found guilty of trying to assassinate Donald Trump – and attempts to stab himself after verdict
A 59-year-old man has been found guilty of trying to assassinate Donald Trump on a golf course.
Ryan Routh attempted to stab himself in the neck with a pen shortly after he was convicted on all five charges against him.
Marshals quickly surrounded Routh and he did not hurt himself. They then dragged him out of the courtroom in Fort Pierce, Florida.
Courtroom sketch shows Ryan Routh trying to stab himself in the neck with a pen. Pic: AP
His daughter Sara Routh screamed: “Dad I love you don’t do anything. I’ll get you out. He didn’t hurt anybody.”
She continued screaming in the courtroom as her father was removed, and she said the case against him was rigged.
He was later brought back into court, wearing a white shirt and no tie. There was no blood visible on his neck.
The judge wanted to make sure Routh understood he was found guilty. Routh will be sentenced on 18 December, the judge announced.
His son Adam said “we love you Dad” and Routh turned around and winked as he was taken away.
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Moment Ryan Routh is arrested
‘Carefully crafted plot’
A jury of five men and seven women decided Routh intended to kill Mr Trump when he pointed a rifle through a fence as the then US presidential candidate was playing golf in West Palm Beach, Florida, in September last year.
Routh fled without firing a shot after a Secret Service agent patrolling the course ahead of Mr Trump saw Routh and the rifle and opened fire, according to witness testimony in the case.
At the start of the trial, prosecutor John Shipley said “this plot was carefully crafted and deadly serious”, adding that without the agent intervening, “Donald Trump would not be alive”.
A photograph of what officials said was the SKS rifle in the assassination plot. Pic: Reuters
Routh was arrested on 15 September 2024. Pic: Martin County Sheriff’s Office
The charges against Routh
Routh had been charged with attempting to assassinate a major presidential candidate, possessing a firearm in furtherance of a crime of violence, assaulting a federal officer, possessing a firearm and ammunition as a convicted felon and possessing a firearm with an obliterated serial number.
The incident occurred weeks after a bullet grazed the president’s ear in another assassination attempt at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.
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Routh, who faces the prospect of life in prison, pleaded not guilty to all the charges against him and chose to defend himself in court.
He spent weeks plotting to kill Mr Trump before aiming a rifle through shrubbery as the Republican candidate played golf on 15 September 2024, at his West Palm Beach country club, according to prosecutors.
What did Routh say?
Routh told jurors in his closing argument that he did not intend to kill anyone that day.
“It’s hard for me to believe that a crime occurred if the trigger was never pulled,” Routh said.
He said he could see Mr Trump as he was on the path toward the sixth-hole green and noted he also could have shot a Secret Service agent who confronted him if he had intended to harm anyone.
Trump’s reaction
Following the guilty verdict, the president said on Truth Social that Routh was “an evil man with an evil intention, and they caught him”.
He thanked the Secret Service and “the wonderful person who spotted him running from the site of the crime”, and provided authorities with his vehicle registration number.
The guilty verdict “illustrates the Department of Justice’s commitment to punishing those who engage in political violence”, Attorney General Pam Bondi said in a post on X.
“This attempted assassination was not only an attack on our president, but an affront to our very nation,” Ms Bondi said.
President Trump’s speech to the UN General Assembly featured a number of dubious, hyperbolic and headline-grabbing statements.
Here are some of the main soundbites from his 56-minute moment in front of world leaders in New York.
‘London wants Sharia law’
The president continued his long-running criticism of London’s mayor, Sir Sadiq Khan, telling delegates: “I look at London, where you have a terrible mayor, terrible, terrible mayor, and it’s been changed, it’s been so changed.
“Now they want to go to Sharia law. But you are in a different country, you can’t do that.”
It’s not clear why he raised Sharia law – which is Islam’s legal system – but there is no evidence of it being administered by civil authorities in London.
A spokesperson for Sir Sadiq said: “We are not going to dignify his appalling and bigoted comments with a response.
“London is the greatest city in the world, safer than major US cities, and we’re delighted to welcome the record number of US citizens moving here.”
Immigration will be ‘death of Western Europe’
The president, who’s clamped down on migrants coming via America’s southern border and ordered immigration raids, warned the UN “immigration and their suicidal energy ideas will be the death of Western Europe if something is not done immediately”.
He said Europe was being “invaded by a force of illegal aliens like nobody’s ever seen before”.
Illegal migration has been a contentious subject in the UK for years. Pic: Reuters
“Illegal aliens are pouring into Europe and nobody’s doing anything to change it,” Mr Trump said.
Directly addressing European leaders, he added: “You’re doing it because you want to be nice. You want to be politically correct, and you’re destroying your heritage.”
The UK has seen a record number of illegal migrants arrive in small boats for this point in the year – and there has been a spike in legal migration too. How to tackle the problem continues to be a key political battleground.
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Climate change world’s ‘greatest con job’
Mr Trump urged Europe to abandon green energy plans and called climate change “the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world” with predictions “made by stupid people that have cost their countries fortunes”.
He said scientists had previously predicted some nations might be “wiped off the map” by now – but that’s “not happening”.
“If you don’t get away from the green scam, your country is going to fail,” he argued.
The vast majority of scientists accept climate change is largely man-made and already having an effect; for example by causing glaciers to shrink, sea levels to rise, and making wildfires more likely.
The president said renewable energy was blighting Britain’s countryside. Pic: iStock
He also reiterated his belief that Britain should make more of untapped North Sea oil, but claimed it was “so highly taxed that no developer, no oil company can go there”.
The president is well known for his loathing of renewable energy and used his speech to also take a swipe at the UK’s green energy efforts.
“I want to stop seeing them ruining that beautiful Scottish and English countryside with windmills and massive solar panels that go seven miles by seven miles, taking away farmland,” the president said.
The UK’s largest solar plant is Cleve Hill in Kent, which stretches about 1.8 miles x 1 mile at its widest.
However, the country’s largest onshore wind farm at Whitelee, near Glasgow, comprises 215 turbines over about 30 square miles.
‘Everyone’ says Trump should get prize after ‘ending seven wars’
Mr Trump is widely believed to be very keen to get the Nobel Peace Prize, and today he again claimed to have stopped “seven wars” – despite US efforts to get a ceasefire in Ukraine and Gaza so far failing.
“I ended seven wars and in all cases they were raging with countless thousands of people being killed,” he said, adding that “no president or prime minister” has “ever done anything close to that”.
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Analysis of Trump’s speech
However, the president said he actually isn’t concerned about being honoured for his efforts.
“Everyone says that I should get the Nobel Peace Prize for each one of these achievements,” he told world leaders.
“The real prize will be the sons and daughters who live to grow up with their mothers and fathers because millions of people are no longer being killed in endless and unglorious wars,” the president said.
“What I care about is not winning prizes as much as saving lives.”
He also took a swipe at what he said was a lax approach from the UN, saying it was “too bad that I had to do these things instead of the United Nations doing them”.
Although his administration has helped mediate relations in disputes between countries such as India and Pakistan, and Cambodia and Thailand, experts say his impact isn’t as clear cut as he makes out.
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