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Donald Trump’s trade war has been difficult to keep up with, to put it mildly.

For all the threats and bluster of the US election campaign last year to the on-off implementation of trade tariffs – and more threats – since he returned to the White House in January, the president‘s protectionist agenda has been haphazard.

Trading partners, export-focused firms, customs agents and even his own trade team have had a lot on their plates as deadlines were imposed – and then retracted – and the tariff numbers tinkered.

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While the UK was the first country to secure a truce of sorts, described as a “deal”, the vast majority of nations have failed to secure any agreement.

Deal or no deal, no country is on better trading terms with the United States than it was when Trump 2.0 began.

Here, we examine what nations and blocs are on the hook for, and the potential consequences, as Mr Trump’s suspended “reciprocal” tariffs prepare to take effect. That will now not happen until 7 August.

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Why was 1 August such an important date?

To understand the present day, we must first wind the clock back to early April.

Then, Mr Trump proudly showed off a board in the White House Rose Garden containing a list of countries and the tariffs they would immediately face in retaliation for the rates they impose on US-made goods. He called it “liberation day”.

The tariff numbers were big and financial markets took fright.

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What does the UK-US trade deal involve?

Just days later, the president announced a 90-day pause in those rates for all countries except China, to allow for negotiations.

The initial deadline of 9 July was then extended again to 1 August. Late on 31 July, Mr Trump signed the executive order but said that the tariff rates would not kick in for seven additional days to allow for the orders to be fully communicated.

Since April, only eight countries or trading blocs have agreed “deals” to limit the reciprocal tariffs and – in some cases – sectoral tariffs already in place.

Who has agreed a deal over the past 120 days?

The UK, Japan, Indonesia, the European Union and South Korea are among the eight to be facing lower rates than had been threatened back in April.

China has not really done a deal but it is no longer facing punitive tariffs above 100%.

Its decision to retaliate against US levies prompted a truce level to be agreed between the pair, pending further talks.

There’s a backlash against the EU over its deal, with many national leaders accusing the European Commission of giving in too easily. A broad 15% rate is to apply, down from the threatened 30%, while the bloc has also committed to US investment and to pay for US-produced natural gas.

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Millions of EU jobs were in firing line

Where does the UK stand?

We’ve already mentioned that the UK was the first to avert the worst of what was threatened.

While a 10% baseline tariff covers the vast majority of the goods we send to the US, aerospace products are exempt.

Our steel sector has not been subjected to Trump’s 50% tariffs and has been facing down a 25% rate. The government announced on Thursday that it would not apply under the terms of a quota system.

UK car exports were on a 25% rate until the end of June when the deal agreed in May took that down to 10% under a similar quota arrangement that exempts the first 100,000 cars from a levy.

Who has not done a deal?

Canada is among the big names facing a 35% baseline tariff rate. That is up from 25% and covers all goods not subject to a US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that involves rules of origin.

America is its biggest export market and it has long been in Trump’s sights.

Mexico, another country deeply ingrained in the US supply chain, is facing a 30% rate but has been given an extra 90 days to secure a deal.

Brazil is facing a 50% rate. For India, it’s 25%.

What are the consequences?

This is where it all gets a bit woolly – for good reasons.

The trade war is unprecedented in scale, given the global nature of modern business.

It takes time for official statistics to catch up, especially when tariff rates chop and change so much.

Any duties on exports to the United States are a threat to company sales and economic growth alike – in both the US and the rest of the world. Many carmakers, for example, have refused to offer guidance on their outlooks for revenue and profits.

Apple warned on Thursday night that US tariffs would add $1.1bn of costs in the three months to September alone.

Barriers to business are never good but the International Monetary Fund earlier this week raised its forecast for global economic growth this year from 2.8% to 3%.

Some of that increase can be explained by the deals involving major economies, including Japan, the EU and UK.

US growth figures have been skewed by the rush to beat import tariffs but the most recent employment data has signalled a significant slowdown in hiring, with a tick upwards in the jobless rate.

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The big risk ahead?

It’s the prospect of another self-inflicted wound.

The elephant in the room is inflation. Countries imposing duties on their imports force the recipient of those goods to foot the additional bill. Do the buyers swallow it or pass it on?

The latest US data contained strong evidence that tariff charges were now making their way down the country’s supply chains, threatening to squeeze American consumers in the months ahead.

It’s why the US central bank has been refusing demands from Mr Trump to cut interest rates. You don’t slow the pace of price rises by making borrowing costs cheaper.

A prolonged period of higher inflation would not go down well with US businesses or voters. It’s why financial markets have followed a recent trend known as TACO, helping stock markets remain at record levels.

The belief is that Trump always chickens out. He may have to back down if inflation takes off.

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Aalborg Airport in Denmark forced to close after drones spotted, police say

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Aalborg Airport in Denmark forced to close after drones spotted, police say

An airport in Denmark has been forced to close after drones were spotted nearby, local police have said.

Incoming and departing flights from Aalborg Airport were halted following the incident on Wednesday night.

In a post on X, Nordjyllands Police said: “Drones have been observed near Aalborg Airport and the airspace is closed. The police are present and investigating further.”

The force said more than one drone was sighted in the airport’s airspace, adding that it was not known if they were the same ones that affected Copenhagen Airport earlier this week.

It said the purpose of the drones was unknown, and it was not clear who was controlling them, but they were flying with their lights on.

Aalborg is located in the north of the country, in the Jutland region, and is Denmark’s fourth-largest city by population.

Denmark’s national police said the drones followed a similar pattern to the ones that had halted flights at Copenhagen Airport.

It also said it had received notices of drones in other parts of the country. It said the Danish Armed Forces were also affected as they use Aalborg Airport as a military base.

Danish police later said the unidentified drones were no longer located over the airport’s airspace.

Southern Jutland police later said drones had also been observed near airports in the Danish towns of Esbjerg, Sonderborg and Skrydstrup. Fighter Wing Skrydstrup in Southern Jutland is the base for Denmark’s F-16 and F-35 fighter jets.

Denmark’s national police commissioner, Thorkild Fogde, said many people around the country had reported drone sightings to the police since the disruption earlier this week.

“Of course many of these reports do not cover activities that are of interest to the police or the military, but some of them do, and I think the one in Aalborg does,” he said.

The incident at Copenhagen Airport on Monday was described by the government as the most serious attack yet on its critical infrastructure and linked the drones to a series of suspected Russian drone incursions and other disruptions across Europe.

Authorities in Norway also shut the airspace at Oslo airport for three hours after a drone was seen there.

Denmark‘s prime minister later said she “cannot deny” that drones seen over the airport were flown by Russia.

Authorities in Norway and Denmark are in close contact over the incidents in Copenhagen and Oslo, but their investigation has not yet established a connection, Norway’s foreign minister said on Wednesday.

It also comes after disruption at Heathrow Airport last week following a cyber attack that also hit other major airports in Europe.

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Zelenskyy’s UN speech was a warning and a plea – as he knows Trump can turn on a dime

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Zelenskyy's UN speech was a warning and a plea - as he knows Trump can turn on a dime

Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s moment in the United Nations General Assembly chamber came a day after he told Sky News that Donald Trump’s language represented a “big shift” in America’s stance on Ukraine. 

The dust is settling on US President Trump’s social media post on Tuesday.

While it unquestionably represents a shift in position – now claiming Ukraine can take back all of the land lost – big questions remain about Mr Trump‘s personal and material commitment to a Ukrainian victory.

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Zelenskyy tells Sky News Trump has made ‘big shift’

President Zelenskyy addresses the United Nations General Assembly. Pic: AP
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President Zelenskyy addresses the United Nations General Assembly. Pic: AP

Mr Zelenskyy is taking the win that the language represents, but he, more than anyone, knows that Mr Trump can turn on a dime.

And so his speech was a warning, a message and a continued plea for help.

The Ukrainian leader cited history in warning that Russia won’t stop unless it is defeated.

Mr Zelenskyy said: “We have already lost Georgia in Europe. Human rights and the European nature of the state system are only shrinking there.

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“Georgia is dependent on Russia and for many, many years, Belarus has also been moving towards dependence on Russia.”

Putin will keep driving the war forward, wider and deeper… Ukraine is only the first. Russian drones are already flying across Europe.”

“Europe cannot afford to lose Moldova too,” he said.

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‘NATO should shoot down Russian jets violating airspace’

Drawing on the experience of his country, he warned of what he said was a uniquely dangerous proliferation of weapons.

“We are living through the most destructive arms race in human history,” he said, warning specifically of the dangers of drones which will soon be controlled by artificial intelligence (AI).

But he also warned of the proliferation of the use of violence, whether it be from nation states or from political activists.

He cited the assassination attempts on Mr Trump and the assassination of Charlie Kirk.

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He included these moments not just because he believes they represent a dangerous and tragic shift but because he knows he needs to keep President Trump and his base of support on side. Showing empathy with them is important.

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He spoke in perfect English. Not long ago, he struggled with the language. He knows that now, more than ever, he needs to communicate in the language of those who hold the key to his country’s future.

“Of course, we are doing everything to make sure Europe truly helps, and we count on the United States,” he said.

He closed with a plea to the nations of the world, gathered in the chamber.

“Don’t stay silent while Russia keeps dragging this war on… Please join us in defending life, international law and order,” he said.

“People are waiting for action.”

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China does targets differently to the West – and it may be just what the world needs

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China does targets differently to the West - and it may be just what the world needs

There is something peculiar about the Chinese government that makes its targets very different to those in countries like Britain.

That quirk gives analysts some hope after it’s “timid” announcement on the green transition – and as Donald Trump yesterday condemned climate change as a “hoax”.

The good news is that China has, for the first time, made a commitment to cut its greenhouse gas emissions. It’s a landmark moment.

In a video statement to the UN in New York, President Xi Jinping vowed China would cut emissions by 7-10% by 2035, while “striving to do better”.

But it is still “critically short” of the roughly 30% believed to be necessary from the world’s biggest greenhouse gas polluter and clean tech superpower, analysts said.

Juan Manuel Santos, former president of Colombia and chair of The Elders, a group of global leaders founded by Nelson Mandela, said: “China’s latest climate target is too timid given the country’s extraordinary record on clean energy – both at home and through its green partnerships with emerging economies.”

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‘Strongest storm of the year’

China also chose not to say when it thinks its emissions will peak – allowing plenty of time for them to keep rising before they then fall.

But here’s why all is not lost – far from it.

In the West, targets are often aspirational. They are knowingly optimistic, sometimes wildly so, because the purpose isn’t necessarily to hit them.

Instead, they are designed to provide some certainty to investors, energy companies, local authorities and so on about where the country is headed, stimulating them all to kick into gear.

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‘Taking targets seriously’

The Chinese work differently. In fact, they have a record over under promising and over delivering on climate targets.

Why?

“In China’s top-down political system, setting and evaluating targets is a key means through which the central government manages the country,” says Zhe Yao from Greenpeace Asia.

“As a result, there is a strong political culture of taking targets seriously. This mentality means policymakers usually take a realistic approach to setting targets rather than treating them as aspirations.”

Just look at their wind and solar rollout: meeting a target of 1,200GW by 2030 six years early.

Today they pledged to more than double today’s capacity of around 1,400GW to 3,600GW by 2035 – rates many countries can only dream of. There are other targets China has missed – such as to “strictly control” coal power – but still that record gives analysts hope.

Another ray of light is the fact that it was delivered by Xi himself – this is perceived as the commitment being more serious than if it was delivered by anyone else.

And “striving to better” sounds weasley, but suggests they aim to overachieve, and again should be taken more seriously from President Xi than perhaps we would from other leaders.

Xi Jinping seems to sense an opportunity to step into a global leadership role, as the US retreats. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Xi Jinping seems to sense an opportunity to step into a global leadership role, as the US retreats. Pic: Reuters

US and EU fall short

China is far from alone in disappointing with its pledge, made as a part of its latest five-year climate plan (known as nationally determined contribution or NDC), something all countries are doing this year as per the Paris Agreement.

The US government under Trump has ditched climate action altogether. The EU, which thinks of itself as ambitious, failed to come up with its own plan on time, effectively coming to the UN this week with an “I Owe You” instead.

With other leaders faltering, there was less heat on Beijing to step up.

Even the 10% reduction in emissions will “still put the world on a pathway to catastrophic climate impacts” says Kate Logan, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

So let’s hope this target will not just be hot air, but another one for cautious China to overachieve.

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