Trump’s penalty threat puts India in a bind over Russian oil
The Reliance Industries Ltd. oil refinery in Jamnagar, Gujarat, India, on Saturday, July 31, 2021.
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India is navigating a tricky balancing act after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened a “penalty” over its continued imports of Russian oil — a trade that New Delhi appears reluctant to end anytime soon.
Despite Trump telling reporters Friday that he “heard” India would halt purchases, officials in New Delhi have remained noncommittal. Foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said that the country decides its energy import sources “based on the price at which oil is available in the international market and depending on the global situation at that time.”
“The Indians must be having some confusion” following Trump’s threat — a reversal from the more tolerant approach taken under the Biden administration, Bob McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
“Now we’re flipping around and saying, ‘What are you doing taking all this Russian oil?'” McNally said.
In March 2022 — a month after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine — Daleep Singh, a former U.S. deputy national security adviser for international economics in the Biden administration, reportedly said that “friends don’t set red lines” and “there is no prohibition at present on energy imports from Russia.”
“What we would not like to see is a rapid acceleration of India’s imports from Russia as it relates to energy or any other exports that are currently being prohibited by us or by other aspects of the international sanctions regime,” Singh said.
On July 30, Trump announced that India would face a 25% tariff beginning Aug. 1, along with an unspecified “penalty” for buying Russian oil and military equipment.
But analysts suggest that India, which is the third-largest energy consumer in the world, isn’t blinking. Reuters reported that there are no immediate changes planned to India’s long-term contracts with Russian suppliers, citing two anonymous Indian government sources that did not wish to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.
Russia has become the leading oil supplier to India since the war in Ukraine began, increasing from just under 100,000 barrels per day before the invasion, or a 2.5% share of total imports, to more than 1.8 million barrels per day in 2023, or 39%. According to the International Energy Agency, 70% of Russian crude was exported to India in 2024.
India’s energy minister Hardeep Singh Puri defended New Delhi’s actions in a July 10 interview with CNBC, saying that it helped stabilize global prices and was even encouraged by the U.S.
“If people or countries had stopped buying at that stage, the price of oil would have gone up to 130 dollars a barrel. That was a situation in which we were advised, including by our friends in the United States, to please buy Russian oil, but within the price cap.”
Russian oil exports had been capped at $60 per barrel in December 2022 by the Group of Seven nations, representing the world’s top economies, while the European Union had lowered the price cap to just above $47 per barrel in July.
Still, pressure is mounting. Vishnu Varathan, Managing Director at Mizuho Securities, said that the U.S. threats present a “clear and present danger” to India. He said that New Delhi is likely to remain non-committal on oil purchases as it assesses the trade-offs of this “Russia option” as a bargaining chip.
India will need to scour the global market for comparable oil bargains with Russian oil, Varathan, who is also the head of macro research for Asia ex-Japan, added.
New Delhi could explore alternatives, including Iran — if an exemption from the U.S. can be negotiated — as well as a few other producers “either within or outside of the OPEC+ that have been pressured by the U.S,” Varathan said.
The OPEC+ bloc had agreed on Sunday to raise output by 547,000 barrels per day in September, as concerns mount over potential supply disruptions linked to Russia.
India is going to face a tough choice, Rapidan’s McNally said.
“Trump is serious. He’s frustrated with Putin… India is going to have a tough choice to make, but it’s hard to see them continuing to import that a million and a half barrels [of] Russian crude if Donald Trump decides to really put the whole relationship on the line over it.”
More than 100,000 home batteries across California stepped up as a virtual power plant last week in a scheduled test event, and the results were impressive, according to new analysis from The Brattle Group.
Sunrun was the largest aggregator, Tesla was the largest OEM, and most of the batteries were enrolled
in California’s Demand-Side Grid Support (DSGS) program.
Sunrun’s distributed battery fleet delivered more than two-thirds of the energy during a scheduled two-hour grid support test on July 29. In total, the event pumped an average of 535 megawatts (MW) onto the grid – enough to power over half of San Francisco.
The event, run between 7 and 9 pm, was coordinated by the California Energy Commission, CAISO (California Independent System Operator), and utilities to prepare for stress on the grid during August and September heat waves. And it worked.
Sunrun alone averaged over 360 MW during the two-hour window. The batteries kicked in right when electricity demand typically spikes in the evening, acting just like a traditional power plant, but from people’s homes.
Brattle’s analysis found that the battery output made a visible dent in statewide grid load, when the power is needed most. “Performance was consistent across the event, without major fluctuations or any attrition,” said Ryan Hledik, a principal at The Brattle Group. He called it “dependable, planning-grade performance at scale.”
Residential batteries, Hledik explained, don’t just help shave off demand during critical hours; they can reduce the need for new power plants entirely. “They can serve CAISO’s net peak, reduce the need to invest in new generation capacity, and relieve strain on the system associated with the evening load ramp,” he said.
This isn’t a one-off. Sunrun’s fleet already helped drop peak demand earlier this summer, delivering 325 MW during a similar event on June 24. The company compensates customers up to $150 per battery per season for participating.
Sunrun CEO Mary Powell summed it up: “Distributed home batteries are a powerful and flexible resource that reliably delivers power to the grid at a moment’s notice, benefiting all households by preventing blackouts, alleviating peak demand, and reducing extreme price spikes.”
Read more: The US’s largest virtual power plant now runs on 75,000 home batteries
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Hyundai’s new Elexio electric SUV, which is built in China, could be sold in overseas markets. The CEO of Hyundai Australia calls it “a promising vehicle” that could help the company regain market share from Tesla, BYD, and others.
Will Hyundai’s new Elexio SUV be sold overseas?
The Elexio SUV is the first dedicated electric vehicle from Hyundai’s joint venture with BAIC in China, Beijing Hyundai.
After unveiling it for the first time in May, Hyundai is preparing to launch the new Elexio in China in the next few weeks.
According to a new report, Hyundai’s new electric SUV could be sold in overseas markets, including Australia. Don Romano, the CEO of Hyundai Australia, told journalists (via EV Central) last week during the launch event for the new IONIQ 9 that the company has done a “terrible job” with its EVs so far.
“And the only explanation for that is that we haven’t put enough focus into it,” he explained. However, Romano promises the automaker will do better.
Hyundai plans to boost marketing and support its dealership network, which only began selling IONIQ EV models a little over a year ago.
In what mostly went under the radar, Romano also suggested the new Elexio SUV could arrive in Australia. “It’s under evaluation now,” he said, adding, “it’s definitely a promising vehicle.”
Despite this, it may have a few hurdles to clear. Hyundai’s Australian boss explained, “I still have work to do to ensure that it’s the right vehicle in the right segment at the right price for our market. And I have not reached that level yet.”
Romano told journalists that a final decision needs to be made “in the next 60 to 90 days,” and to check back in three months when he will have a definitive answer.
Hyundai Australia is also looking to launch the IONIQ 2, a smaller, more affordable EV to sit between the Inster EV and Kona Electric.
Romano said, “It’s a potential opportunity,” but didn’t provide any details. He said, at this point, he’s just glad Hyundai is producing it. “Now I just need to get the details and find out, will it fit into our overall product plan and create enough demand to where it becomes a viable option for us? So my initial thought is absolutely. Yep.” Hyundai Australia’s boss told journalists.
The new EVs would help Hyundai, which has been struggling to keep pace in the transition to electric, compete in Australia and other overseas markets.
As of June 2025, Hyundai has sold only 853 EVs in Australia. In comparison, Tesla has sold 14,146 electric vehicles, and BYD has sold over 8,300. Even Kia is selling more EVs in Australia, with 4,402 units sold in the first six months of the year.
Measuring 4,615 mm in length, 1,875 mm in width, and 1,673 mm in height, Hyundai’s electric SUV is slightly smaller than the Tesla Model Y.
It recently underwent three consecutive crash tests among several other global evaluations, consistently outperforming benchmarks. Based on Hyundai’s E-GMP platform that powers nearly all Hyundai and Kia EVs, the Elexio has a CLTC driving range of up to 435 miles (700 km)
Hyundai is set to launch it in China in the third quarter of 2025. Prices have yet to be announced, but it’s expected to start at around 140,000 yuan ($19,500).
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Time’s ticking for snagging a great EV lease deal. With the 25% tariff on imported EVs already in place and the federal tax credit disappearing on September 30, automakers are rolling out serious deals. If you’re thinking about going electric, now’s the moment. Here are some of the best August EV lease deals our friends at CarsDirect found.
2025 Honda Prologue lease from $159/month
Honda’s throwing down a wild lease deal on the 2025 Prologue if you’re in the right state. For a limited time, you can drive off in the all-electric SUV for the equivalent of just $200/month, but there’s a twist. Instead of monthly payments, Honda’s offering a rare One Pay Lease: you drop $4,800 upfront for a 24-month lease. That’s it. No monthly bills, and you save nearly 2% compared to standard rates.
If paying all at once isn’t in the cards, there’s still an option to pay $159/month for 24 months with $1,099 due at signing. Either way, the Prologue ranks among the cheapest new electric SUVs to lease right now.
There are some strings, though. These ultra-low prices are only available in California and other CARB states, and they include a $3,500 loyalty or conquest bonus, so you’ll need to be coming from a Honda lease or ready to ditch another brand.
These deals rely on the EV lease loophole to pass through the $7,500 tax credit. Once that disappears on September 30, expect prices to jump. At that point, buying might make more sense than leasing.
Click here to find a local dealer that may have the Honda Prologue in stock. –trusted affiliate link
2025 Volkswagen ID.4 lease from $129/month
Volkswagen just slashed the ID.4 lease – and it’s a big one. Right now, you can lease the 2025 ID.4 Pro RWD for just $129/month for 24 months with 10,000 miles a year. That works out to an effective cost of only $233/month, making it $264 less than it was before.
This isn’t just a good deal – it’s practically interest-free. The previous lease rate hovered around 1%, but now it’s basically 0%. On top of that, VW is stacking up to $9,250 in lease cash depending on which trim you pick. Even the base Pro RWD gets $7,500 in incentives. This deal only runs through August 31.
Click here to find a local dealer that may have the Volkswagen ID.4 in stock. –trusted affiliate link
2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 lease from $149/month
Hyundai just dropped one of the best EV lease deals of the summer. The refreshed 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 SE Standard Range is going for $149/month for 36 months (10,000 miles a year) with $3,999 due at signing. That brings the effective monthly cost to just $260 – a nearly $100 drop from July’s offer. This deal is available through September 2.
If you’ve got little wiggle room in your budget, the SE Long Range might be worth the upgrade at $189/month with the same upfront cost – only $40 more a month for a lot more range.
Click here to find a local dealer that may have the Hyundai IONIQ 5 in stock. –trusted affiliate link
2025 Hyundai IONIQ 6 lease from $169/month
The 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 6 SE Standard Range is going for $169/month for 24 months (12,000 miles a year) with $3,999 due at signing. That pencils out to an effective cost of $336/month, and with the current lease cash, it’s a solid bargain.
Hyundai is offering up to $11,750 in lease cash on the IONIQ 6, plus an extra $1,000 Inventory Coupon if you lease a car that’s been sitting on the lot for 180+ days. That’s even more than July’s offer.
These offers are good through September 2, so if sleek, efficient, and affordable is your vibe, the IONIQ 6 is a solid choice.
Click here to find a local dealer that may have the Hyundai IONIQ 6 in stock. –trusted affiliate link
2025 Subaru Solterra lease from $279/month
The 2025 Subaru Solterra just became one of the most affordable EVs to lease. It’s going for $279/month for 36 months with just $279 due at signing. That brings the effective monthly cost to just $287, an incredible deal for an all-electric SUV with an MSRP pushing $40,000.
To put it in perspective: the 2025 Honda CR-V Hybrid has an effective monthly cost of $486. So yeah, the Solterra wins this round. This offer’s available through September 2.
Click here to find a local dealer that may have the Subaru Solterra in stock. –trusted affiliate link
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