Nvidia’s set to regain some China access. But it still faces eroding AI chip market share
Photo illustration of Nvidia’s H20 chip.
Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images
Nvidia‘s H20 chips are likely to return to China, but tech experts don’t expect them to be met with the same fanfare in the market in light of new competition and regulatory scrutiny.
The Trump administration last month gave Nvidia assurances that it would be permitted to resume sales of its H20 chips to China, after their exports had been effectively banned in April. It also announced a new “fully compliant” made-for-China chip.
The move was seen as a huge win for the company, which had flagged billions in losses due to the policy. But while the H20s might be returning to the Chinese market that doesn’t mean Nvidia will regain its former market share, analysts caution.
In a recent report, global equity research and brokerage firm Bernstein forecast that Nvidia’s AI chip market share in China would drop to 54% in 2025, from 66% the year prior.
This drop is only partly owed to complications with resuming chip supply, as Chinese AI chipmakers have been seizing more of the booming domestic market.
“U.S. export controls have created a unique opportunity for domestic AI processor vendors, as they are not competing with the most advanced global alternatives,” Bernstein’s report said, noting growing prominence of Chinese players such as Huawei, Cambricon and Hygon. “The localization ratio of China’s AI chip market will surge from 17% in 2023 to 55% by 2027.”
Other analysts such as The Futurum Group CEO Daniel Newman were more bullish about Nvidia’s bounce back in China. However, he also flagged potential market share erosion from Nvidia customers that might have found success with Chinese rivals while the H20 controls were in place.
It’s also worth noting that Bernstein’s predictions assume that broader U.S. chip restrictions will remain largely unchanged. That creates a dynamic where Chinese companies continue to develop and offer advanced chips, possibly eroding demand for outdated U.S. offerings.
Further easing?
Ahead of rolling back the H20 restrictions, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang had been lobbying for more access to China, claiming export controls were inhibiting U.S. tech leadership.
While Trump administration officials had said the rollback was part of trade negotiations, analysts have echoed Nvidia’s basic argument that chip controls for the China market should be eased, thereby creating more dependency on U.S. tech offerings.
“The assumption is that by keeping U.S. technology companies in the China game, the U.S. can preserve and even grow its geopolitical leverage,” Reva Goujon, director at Rhodium Group, told CNBC.
In a report last month, Rhodium Group said that this logic may see the administration shift to a “sliding scale” approach to export restrictions that could allow U.S. chipmakers greater access to China as Huawei and other Chinese chipmakers continue to upgrade.
However, while Chinese AI developers will be happy to have increased access to Nvidia chips, Beijing isn’t expected to slow its efforts to steer companies toward homegrown AI infrastructure, according to Goujon.
She noted that the Cyberspace Administration of China’s recent summons to Nvidia was an obvious signal of the state’s intention to intervene in the local AI infrastructure market.
New Beijing scrutiny
According to the Cyberspace Administration of China, Nvidia met with Beijing officials on Thursday regarding national security concerns posed by the H20 chips, including potential backdoors that would allow parties in the U.S. to access or control them.
Beijing’s move appeared to come in response, at least partially, to new laws proposed in the U.S. that would require semiconductor companies such as Nvidia to include security mechanisms and location verification in their advanced AI chips. Nvidia later denied that its chips have any “backdoors” that would allow external access or control.
The move by Beijing was also likely an attempt to create some hesitation among Chinese AI developers looking to buy the new H20s, according to Futurum’s Newman.
“China wants to leave some levers in place to potentially restrict outside AI chips at some point down the line if and when it feels its homegrown technology is truly competitive,” Newman said.
Beijing has previously restricted American chipmakers’ business in China amid periods of intense technology and trade tensions between the two countries. Micron Technology, for instance, failed a cybersecurity review in 2023 and was subsequently blocked from critical IT infrastructure.
“The continued complexity of China-U.S. trade relations could bring further complications [for Nvidia] as negotiations continue and as China attempts to cement its own AI strategy,” Newman added.
The Hers app arranged on a smartphone in New York, US, on Wednesday, Feb. 12, 2025.
Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Shares of Hims & Hers Health fell 9% in extended trading on Monday after the telehealth company reported second-quarter results that missed Wall Street’s expectations for revenue.
Here’s how the company did based on average analysts’ estimates compiled by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: 17 cents adjusted vs. 15 cents
- Revenue: $544.8 million vs. $552 million
Revenue at Hims & Hers increased 73% in the second quarter from $315.6 million during the same period last year, according to a release. Hims & Hers reported a net income of $42.5 million, or 17 cents per share, compared to $13.3 million, or 6 cents per share, during the same period a year earlier.
For its third quarter, Hims & Hers said it expected to report revenue between $570 million to $590 million, while analysts were expecting $583 million. The company said its adjusted EBITDA for the quarter will be between the range of $60 million to $70 million. Analysts polled by StreetAccount were expecting $77.1 million.
Hims & Hers has faced controversy in recent months over its continued sale of compounded GLP-1s, which are cheaper, unapproved versions of the blockbuster diabetes and weight loss drugs. Compounded drugs can be mass produced when brand-name treatments are in shortage, but the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announced in February that ongoing supply issues had been resolved.
Some telehealth companies, including Hims & Hers, have continued to offer the compounded medications. It’s legal for patients to access personalized doses of the knockoffs in unique cases, like if they are allergic to an ingredient in a branded product, for instance. Hims & Hers has said consumers may still be able to access personalized doses through its site if clinically applicable.
In June, Hims & Hers shares tumbled more than 30% after a short-lived collaboration with Novo Nordisk fell apart. The drugmaker said Hims & Hers “failed to adhere to the law which prohibits mass sales of compounded drugs” under the “false guise” of personalization.
Hims & Hers reported adjusted EBITDA of $82 million for its second quarter, up from $39.3 million last year and above the $73 million expected by StreetAccount.
Hims & Hers will host its quarterly call with investors at 5 p.m. ET.
YTD chart of Hims & Hers Health.
–CNBC’s Annika Kim Constantino contributed to this report
Palantir topped Wall Street’s estimates Monday, surpassing $1 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time, and hiking its full-year guidance.
Shares rallied more than 5%.
Here’s how the company did versus LSEG estimates:
- Earnings per share: 16 cents adj. vs. 14 cents expected
- Revenue: $1.00 billion vs. $940 million expected
The artificial intelligence software provider’s revenues grew 48% during the period. Analysts hadn’t expected the $1 billion revenue benchmark from the Denver-based company until the fourth quarter of this year.
“The growth rate of our business has accelerated radically, after years of investment on our part and derision by some,” wrote CEO Alex Karp in a letter to shareholders. “The skeptics are admittedly fewer now, having been defanged and bent into a kind of submission.”
The software analytics company also boosted its full-year outlook guidance. For the full year, Palantir now expects revenues to range between $4.142 billion and $4.150 billion, up from prior guidance of $3.89 billion to $3.90 billion.
For the third quarter, Palantir forecast revenues between $1.083 billion and $1.087 billion, beating an analyst estimate of $983 million. Palantir also lifted its operating income and full-year free cash flow guidance.
Palantir’s U.S. revenues jumped 68% from a year ago to $733 million, while U.S. commercial revenues nearly doubled from a year ago to $306 million.
The software analytics company has seen a boost from President Donald Trump‘s government efficiency campaign, which included layoffs and contract cuts. Palantir’s U.S. government revenues jumped 53% from the year-ago period to $426 million.
“It has been a steep and upward climb — an ascent that is a reflection of the remarkable confluence of the arrival of language models, the chips necessary to power them, and our software infrastructure,” Karp wrote in a letter to shareholders.
During the quarter, Palantir said it closed 66 deals of at least $5 million and 42 deals totaling at least $10 million. Total value of its contracts grew 140% from last year to $2.27 billion.
Net income rose 144% to about $326.7 million, or 13 cents a share, from about $134.1 million, or 6 cents per share a year ago.
Palantir shares have more than doubled this year as investors bet on the company’s AI tools and contract agreements with governments.
Its market value has accelerated past $379 billion and into the list of top 20 most valuable U.S companies, surpassing Salesforce, IBM and Cisco to join the top 10 U.S. tech companies by market cap. Shares hit a new high Monday.
At its size, buying the stock requires investors to pay hefty multiples.
Shares currently trade 276 times forward earnings, according to FactSet. Tesla is the only other top 20 with a triple-digit ratio at 177.
Palantir one-day stock chart.
Firefly Aerospace CEO Jason Kim sits for an interview at the Firefly Aerospace mission operations center in Leander, Texas, on July 9, 2025.
Sergio Flores | Reuters
Firefly Aerospace has lifted the share price range for its upcoming initial public offering in a move that would value the space technology company at more than $6 billion.
The lunar lander and rocket maker said in a filing Monday that it expects to price shares in its upcoming IPO between $41 and $43 apiece.
Firefly’s new target range would raise nearly $697 million at the top end of the range. That’s up from the previously expected $35 to $39 price per share that Firefly announced in a filing last week, which targeted a $5.5 billion valuation.
Firefly announced plans to go public last month as interest in space technology gains steam, and billionaire-led companies such as Elon Musk‘s SpaceX rake in more funding.
The industry has also begun testing the public markets after a long hiatus in IPO deal activity, with space tech firm Voyager debuting in June.
Firefly makes rockets, space tugs and lunar landers, and is widely known for its satellite launching rockets known as Alpha.
The company has partnered with major defense players such as Lockheed Martin, L3Harris and NASA, and received a $50 million investment from defense contractor Northrop Grumman.
Firefly’s revenues jumped from $8.3 million a year ago to $55.9 million at the end of March, the company said. Its net loss grew to $60.1 million, from $52.8 million a year ago.
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