Google might lose its $26 billion search deals. Analysts say that could fuel its AI growth
Any day now, a federal judge is expected to issue a landmark ruling that could upend some of the most lucrative deals in Silicon Valley: Google’s default search contracts.
At stake is more than $26 billion a year, $20 billion of which goes to Apple. That’s nearly a quarter of Alphabet’s operating income.
For decades, the Apple-Google pact has helped determine who controls the internet, which is exactly why it’s now in the crosshairs.
U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta ruled last year that Google held a monopoly in search and ads. He’s been weighing remedies since the final phase of the trial wrapped in May, with a separate case on Google’s ad business set to begin next month under a different judge.
While Google risks losing some search traffic and predictability, analysts say Apple could take a bigger financial hit. The impact will hinge on whether Apple lines up new deals and how broadly the ruling applies.
Jefferies analysts say the judge may block exclusive contracts but still allow some payments. Even so, Apple’s pre-tax profits could drop by as much as 7%.
Some economists and Wall Street analysts believe Google might come out ahead in the long run — freed from costly deals that no longer drive demand.
Searching for competition
Barclays analysts said in an August 5 note that if Google were to unwind the payments and contracts, it would still be “nearly impossible” for smaller peers to compete.
Megacap rival Microsoft has poured $100 billion into Bing and hasn’t been able to catch Google’s Chrome.
Apple Senior Vice President of Services Eddy Cue testified during the antitrust trial that no price Microsoft could offer would be enough to justify switching to Bing, because Google delivered stronger results and a better monetization engine.
“I don’t believe there’s a price in the world that Microsoft could offer us. They offered to give us Bing for free. They could give us the whole company,” Cue said.
Apple executives contend that it’s easy for users to switch search engines. Currently, Apple allows Americans to switch to Yahoo, Bing, DuckDuckGo, or Ecosia as their default search engine, but few do.
“I think their search engine is the best,” Apple CEO Tim Cook said about Google in 2018.
Economist Lones Smith, who modeled how people decide which search engine to use, described the phenomenon as a natural monopoly, where scale breeds quality, and quality reinforces scale.
“I don’t understand this deal it has with Apple, because if they didn’t pay Apple $20 billion, do they think that people would really be using another search engine? I don’t see that,” Smith told CNBC.
Smith likened Google to a utility: Breaking it up makes little economic sense.
“How do we get our water, electrical, and all that? We have a regulated monopoly. We don’t go and break it up,” he said. “We understand that there’s an efficient outcome for society, and we just don’t want the water company to be exploiting us.”
From a pure economics perspective, some on Wall Street would argue that the payments look like unnecessary insurance and that Google’s dominance is sticky enough without them.
Data suggests users opt for Google even when there is a choice.
In Europe, where regulators forced users to pick their own default after a European Commission ruling against Google, the company’s market share barely budged, with StatCounter data showing it still hovers around 90%.
Dan Niles, founder of Niles Investment Management, told CNBC that while Europe proves Google can thrive without these payments, the U.S. market moves faster, and what’s next matters more than what’s lost.
“Google to me, quite honestly, once this is done … next year, if they continue down this path, it could be one of the best-performing stocks out there,” Niles said.
Even Google’s proposed remedy points in that direction, allowing shorter default contracts and multiple providers instead of blanket exclusivity, while warning that the bigger risk comes from the DOJ’s push for search data-sharing.
The decision
Former FTC Chair William Kovacic told CNBC that the Justice Department is essentially betting that limiting Google’s exclusivity deals will open the door for new competitors to emerge.
“In part, it’s an act of faith,” he said, though past cases have shown that once barriers are removed, innovation often follows in unexpected ways.
Rebecca Allensworth, a scholar of antitrust and Big Tech, said the payments aren’t necessarily what keep people using Google and likened it to “innovation insurance,” freezing the ecosystem so that rivals don’t have a chance to compete.
“Google fought really, really hard to be able to make those payments,” said Allensworth, a law professor at Vanderbilt. “It makes the industry innovation-proof, in a way. Or at least, if there’s going to be innovation, it’s going to be by and for the benefit of Google.”
Kovacic warned that a Chrome divestiture — one of the more extreme remedies floated — might be more symbolic than effective, calling it “a flashy, shiny object” that wouldn’t do much to solve the issue.
“The big breakup has always been antitrust fascination,” he said. “But you can wonder whether that distracts you from solutions that have more to do with solving the competitive problem that you’ve identified today.”
The DOJ, concerned that Google could repeat its playbook with its artificial intelligence platform Gemini, is also pushing for restrictions on exclusive AI distribution deals — and even proposing data-sharing mandates.
These would force Google to give rivals access to anonymized data about what users search for and which results they click.
But Allensworth emphasized that it’s not a zero-sum game.
“You can have a very strong antitrust remedy … and then two, five, ten years later, that company is actually doing extremely well,” she said. “These are not existential threats to the company.”
AI opportunity
Since 2003 — before the iPhone or Chrome existed — Google’s default search deals with Apple have helped shape the internet. In 2017, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai and Cook were spotted sipping red wine at Tamarine, an upscale Vietnamese restaurant in Palo Alto, while their teams finalized one of the most lucrative arrangements in tech: keeping Google the default on Apple devices.
Eight years later, the same two CEOs are still at the helm — but the dynamics have changed. A new era of search is emerging, driven not by contracts, but by generative AI.
Wall Street analysts have considered the upside if Google stopped writing Apple a $20 billion check and redirected that money into AI and cloud, lifting profits while keeping its dominance intact.
“Let’s then assume that Google is limited from paying for search distribution deals, and others can leverage Google’s search tech stack, then what other properties can Google prioritize that may fall outside the scope of these cases?” mused Bernstein analysts in April. “Gemini.”
Niles said that with Gemini the company has a chance to shift from being seen as lagging in AI to potentially offering the strongest product on the market, a change already showing up in benchmark tests.
Pichai said during the trial that he spoke to Cook about adding Gemini to Apple devices but that integration hasn’t yet materialized.
In June 2024, Apple announced the integration of OpenAI’s ChatGPT at WWDC. Apple’s Cue testified that other AI services like Perplexity and Anthropic could also be added to Safari as options.
But neither can touch Google’s scale.
Perplexity reportedly handles 15 million queries per day, compared to Google’s 10 billion.
And Pichai said Google isn’t standing still, testifying in April that AI will “deeply transform” search. Whether that transformation cements Google’s dominance or finally opens the door to rivals is the real test now.
WATCH: Alphabet hits intraday record high on $10B Meta cloud deal, Apple Gemini talks
A $5.7B lawsuit filed in Federal court alleges that Toyota operated what amounts an organized, fraudulent enterprise that intentionally concealed known, catastrophic safety defects associated with their hydrogen fuel cell-powered Toyota Mirai sedans.
Originally passed as part of the Organized Crime Control Act of 1970, the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act is designed to help prosecutors go after people or companies that commit a pattern of crimes as part of an ongoing organization or enterprise — like the Mafia (which doesn’t exist), or large-scale fraud operations at a corporation.
That RICO statute is now at the center of a new case against Toyota. In it, the plaintiff’s attorneys argue that Toyota knowingly engaged in a decade of fraud surrounding the hydrogen fuel cell-powered MIrai sedan that jeopardized public safety and breached the terms of a previous DOJ settlement.
The case, filed by Jason M. Ingber, lead attorney for the plaintiffs in the US District Court for the Central District of California, is a 142-page RICO complaint alleging that Toyota, its financing arm, and its California dealerships coordinated conspired to market and finance HFCEVs that technicians allegedly referred to as, “ticking hydrogen bombs.”
“This lawsuit isn’t about a simple defect, it’s about organized fraud,” argues Mr. Ingber. “Toyota engineered, financed, and controlled California’s hydrogen network, then used that control to hide safety failures and financial harm to consumers.”
According to the complaint, Toyota and its hydrogen partner, FirstElement Fuel (True Zero), intentionally concealed evidence of:
- hydrogen leaks near hot engine components, creating explosion risks
- sudden power loss, acceleration, and braking failures leading to collisions and injuries
- a collapsing hydrogen infrastructure, leaving drivers stranded for weeks without access to fuel
- aggressive financial collection tactics by Toyota Motor Credit Corporation, targeting owners of inoperable vehicles.
The suit further argues that Toyota’s concealment of these facts violates a 2014 Deferred Prosecution Agreement with the US Department of Justice (DOJ), in which the company admitted to concealing safety defects surrounding the highly publicized incidents of unintended-acceleration and agreed to report all (emphasis mine) future safety issues truthfully.
Ingber is seeking treble damages for the class, injunctive relief, and a federal order halting Toyota’s hydrogen enterprise, citing a continuing pattern of mail and wire fraud.
“Toyota built its reputation on trust,” Ingber said, in a statement. “Our case will show how that trust is violated and why consumers deserve accountability now.”
The case is titled Aminah Kamran et al. v. Toyota Motor Corporation et al., and is docketed as Case No. 2:25-cv-09542.
Electrek’s Jo’s Take
Despite the ebb and flow of media chatter about hydrogen fuel, the simple fact is that America’s hydrogen infrastructure isn’t, and what little infrastructure we did have took a hit last January, when Shell abruptly closed its publicly-accessible charging stations. That left precious few open and operational hydrogen stations available for public use – and the ones that are open don’t seem to be reliable, with Car Complaints reporting that Toyota Mirai owners say they can’t find working hydrogen refueling stations while others complained they had to park their cars for weeks because they couldn’t find hydrogen.
As a result, with supply issues impacting the few stations that are still available (see the DOE’s Alternative Fuels Data Center map, below), it’s tough to argue that Mirai buyers may not have gotten what they were expecting – regardless of the killer, 50% off plus $15,000 in free hydrogen fuel deals that were being offered.
Loading alternative fueling station locator…
SOURCE | IMAGES: CBS News, via CarScoops; Car Complaints.
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Solar and wind together accounted for 88% of new US electrical generating capacity added in the first eight months of 2025, according to data just released by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) which was reviewed by the SUN DAY Campaign. In August, solar energy alone provided two-thirds of the new capacity, marking two consecutive years in which solar has led every month among all energy sources. Solar and wind each added more new capacity than natural gas did. Within three years, the share of all renewables in installed capacity may exceed 40%.
Solar was 73% of new generating capacity YTD
In its latest monthly “Energy Infrastructure Update” report (with data through August 31, 2025), FERC says 48 “units” of solar totaling 2,702 megawatts (MW) came online in August, accounting for 66.4% of all new generating capacity added during the month. That represents the second-largest monthly capacity increase by solar in 2025, behind only January when 2,945 MW were added.
The 505 units of utility-scale (>1 MW) solar added during the first eight months of 2025 total 19,093 MW and accounted for 73.4% of the total new capacity placed into service by all sources.
Solar has now been the largest source of new generating capacity added each month for two consecutive years, between September 2023 and August 2025. During that period, total utility-scale solar capacity grew from 91.82 gigawatts (GW) to 156.20 GW. No other energy source added anything close to that amount of new capacity. Wind, for example, expanded by 11.16 GW while natural gas’ net increase was just 4.36 GW.
Renewables were 88% of new capacity added YTD
Between January and August, new wind has provided 3,775 MW of capacity additions – more than the new capacity provided by natural gas (3,095 MW). Wind thus accounted for 14.5% of all new capacity added during the first eight months of 2025.
For the first eight months of 2025, the combination of solar and wind (plus 4 MW of hydropower and 3 MW of biomass) accounted for 88.0% of new capacity, while natural gas provided just 11.9%. The balance of net capacity additions came from oil (20 MW) and waste heat (17 MW).
Solar + wind are almost 25% of US utility-scale generating capacity
Utility-scale solar’s share of total installed capacity (11.62%) is now almost equal to that of wind (11.82%). If recent growth rates continue, utility-scale solar capacity should equal and probably surpass that of wind in the next “Energy Infrastructure Update” report published by FERC.
Taken together, wind and solar make up 23.44% of the US’s total available installed utility-scale generating capacity.
Moreover, almost 29% of US solar capacity is in the form of small-scale (e.g., rooftop) systems that are not reflected in FERC’s data. Including that additional solar capacity would bring the share provided by solar + wind to more than a quarter of the US total.
With the inclusion of hydropower (7.59%), biomass (1.06%), and geothermal (0.31%), renewables account for a 32.40% share of total US utility-scale generating capacity. If small-scale solar capacity is included, renewables make up more than one-third of total US generating capacity.
Solar is still on track to become the No. 2 source of US generating capacity
FERC reports that net “high probability” net additions of solar between September 2025 and August 2028 total 89,953 MW – an amount almost four times the forecast net “high probability” additions for wind (23,223 MW), the second fastest-growing resource.
FERC also foresees net growth for hydropower (566 MW) and geothermal (92 MW), but a decrease of 126 MW in biomass capacity.
Meanwhile, natural gas capacity is projected to expand by 8,481 MW, while nuclear power is expected to add just 335 MW. In contrast, coal and oil are projected to contract by 23,564 MW and 1,581 MW, respectively.
Taken together, the new “high probability” net capacity additions by all renewable energy sources over the next three years – i.e., the Trump Administration’s remaining time in office – would total 113,708 MW. On the other hand, the installed capacity of fossil fuels and nuclear power combined would shrink by 16,329 MW.
Should FERC’s three-year forecast materialize, by early fall 2028, utility-scale solar would account for 17.1% of installed U.S. generating capacity, more than any other source besides natural gas (40.0%). Further, the capacity of the mix of all utility-scale renewable energy sources would exceed 38%. Including small-scale solar, assuming it retains its 29% share of all solar, could push renewables’ share to over 41%, while natural gas would drop to about 38%.
“Notwithstanding impediments created by the Trump Administration and the Republican-controlled Congress, solar and wind continue to add more generating capacity than fossil fuels and nuclear power,” noted the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director Ken Bossong. “And FERC foresees renewable energy’s role expanding in the next three years while the shares provided by coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear all contract.”
Read more: EIA: Solar + storage dominate, fossil fuels stagnate to August 2025
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![Kia's electric van spotted in two surprising new versions [Video]](https://i0.wp.com/electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2025/11/Kia-PV5-versions.jpeg?resize=1200,628&quality=82&strip=all&ssl=1)
Is it an electric van? Pickup truck? The PV5 can do it all. Kia’s electric van was caught with two new body types for the first time.
What PV5 version is Kia planning to launch?
The PV5 is more than just a futuristic-looking electric van. It’s what Kia calls “the world’s most useful electric mobility vehicle.”
It’s the first from its new Platform Beyond Vehicle (PBV) business, which will offer a wide range of customizable EVs, advanced software, and much more.
During its PV5 Tech Day event in July, Kia revealed plans to introduce seven PV5 body types, ranging from a light camper to an open-bed truck.
The PV5 Passenger and Cargo, built for personal and business use, are already rolling out in Europe and South Korea. The Cargo Compact (available in 3- and 4-door configurations) and the Cargo High Roof are also available.
New variants will include an open bed, a light camper, a luxury “Prime” passenger, a built-in truck, and a refrigerated truck.
The refrigerated truck was captured driving in public for the first time in South Korea, offering a closer look at what’s coming soon. Kia will launch three PV5 refrigerated truck models: low, standard, and high.
The video from HealerTV reveals the standard and high versions. In person, the reporter noted that the high version definitely appeared taller than the standard version.
Although the front looks like the PV5 Passenger and Cargo, the back is redesigned for the refrigerated unit. Kia has yet to reveal a launch date, but it’s expected to be by the end of 2025.
Another PV5 variant, the open-bed version, was recently spotted in public in South Korea. Although we’ve seen it a few times before, the new video, also from the folks at HealerTV, offers our best look at the truck-like variant from all angles.
Meanwhile, the PV5 Cargo just set a new Guinness World Record after driving 430.84 miles (693.38 km) on a single charge, while carrying a full load.
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