Fertility rates continue to fall, but number of births rise
The fertility rate in England and Wales fell to its lowest level on record in 2024. It is the third consecutive year that record has been broken.
Other than a slight jump during the pandemic, birth rates have been falling consistently since 2010. On average, women now have 1.41 babies, compared with 1.42 in 2023 and 1.94 in 2010.
Rates in Scotland are even lower still, according to data released on Tuesday by National Records Scotland. Women there have an average of just 1.25 babies, falling from 1.77 in 2008.
To sustain the size of the global population, demographic experts say women need to have an average of 2.1 babies. This is what they call the “replacement rate”.
A similar rate is required to maintain the population of England and Wales, but it has been below that for more than 50 years. Despite that, the population has increased, largely as a result of immigration.
What’s happening in Britain reflects part of a global trend in declining fertility rates. In South Korea, the country with the lowest fertility rate in the world, women now have fewer than one baby on average – just 0.75.
Fertility remains high in many African countries, however. Somalia has the highest fertility rate in the world, with women there having more than six babies on average.
Despite the declining fertility rate, more babies were born in England and Wales in 2024 compared with 2023, although the 2023 figure was the lowest it had been since 1977.
This is because the population of England and Wales grew by more than 700,000 between 2023 and 2024, mainly due to immigration. So a lower fertility rate is offset by there being more women in the country.
Although fertility rates are falling across England and Wales as a whole, they have risen slightly in London and the West Midlands.
Birmingham was the local authority with the largest increase, rising from 1.61 babies per woman in 2023 to 1.75 in 2024. The largest fall was in Maldon, in Essex, where the number fell from 1.59 to 1.37 per woman.
Since 2014, there has been a fall in fertility in every one of the 303 local authorities for which we have continuous data.
Luton, the local authority with the highest overall fertility rate, where women have an average of exactly two babies, recorded the smallest fall – dropping just 6% in the last 10 years.
In places like Torbay, in Devon, Denbighshire, in north Wales, and the City of Bristol, fertility has fallen by more than a third in the past decade.
Data released last month reveals more information about the demographic make-up of mothers in the UK.
There has been a steady and sustained fall in the number of babies born to British-born mothers, but in 2024 that was offset by an increase in births among those born abroad.
The rise is particularly pronounced among mothers who were born in southern Asia.
In 2024, there were 20,000 more babies born in England and Wales to mothers from that region than there were in 2021 – a rise of almost 50% in just three years.
Births to African mothers have also risen sharply over that period, although there has been an equally rapid fall in babies born to mothers from EU countries, coinciding with Brexit coming into effect.
In 2024, just over a third of babies born in England and Wales had mothers who were born outside the UK, but in some areas foreign-born mothers made up a much higher proportion.
In Luton, for example, which we mentioned earlier, has the highest fertility rate in England and Wales, seven in 10 babies were born to foreign-born mothers in 2024.
As of the 2021 census, the total foreign-born population of Luton was 38%, but many of the foreign-born population will be younger, in age groups more likely to have children.
Birth rates by age
Fertility rates for both men and women are now falling among every age group, and the birth rate among under-30s is the lowest it has ever been.
The number of births to women in their 30s had been rising early this century, but has been steadily falling over the last decade.
In 2024, the average number of babies born to mothers aged between 30 and 34 was the lowest it’s been in more than 20 years.
The average age that mothers have their first child is now 29 years and five months in England and Wales, although there are significant variations in different parts of the country.
In the North East, mothers have their first child shortly after their 28th birthday, on average. In London, it’s three years later – just after turning 31.
The financial burden of low fertility
A combination of women having fewer babies and people living longer means that there is a higher economic burden on each person of working age to support those in retirement.
Demographics expert Dr Paul Morland told Sky News: “In terms of economic society politics, the fundamental problem is that you get more people who are of retirement age [compared with] the number of people working.
“The workers are the ones who are doing the work, paying the taxes, and people over a certain age consume a lot in healthcare – an 80-something consumes five or six times as much as a 20-something.
“The triple lock in the UK means very often that pensioners, even at the very bottom, are better looked after than poor workers. This puts more and more pressure on the state and more and more pressure on labour markets.”
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
The Russian ambassador to the UK has been summoned by the Foreign Office following attacks on Kyiv overnight.
It comes after the British Council building in the Ukrainian capital suffered major damage in Russian strikes.
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Foreign Secretary David Lammy confirmed the government had summoned Andrey Kelin in response.
Mr Kelin was seen arriving at the Foreign Office building in Whitehall today.
Russian ambassador to the UK Andrey Kelin arrives at the Foreign Office building in Whitehall
Mr Lammy posted on X: “Putin’s strikes last night killed civilians, destroyed homes and damaged buildings, including the British Council and EU Delegation in Kyiv.
“We have summoned the Russian Ambassador. The killing and destruction must stop.”
The British Council’s chief executive, Scott McDonald, said their guard for the building was injured but “stable”.
“At the insistence of my amazing colleagues, we will continue operations in Ukraine today wherever possible,” he said.
“Their resilience is awe-inspiring, and I am deeply thankful they are all safe.”
Earlier, Sir Keir Starmer said: “My thoughts are with all those affected by the senseless Russian strikes on Kyiv, which have damaged the British Council building.
“Putin is killing children and civilians, and sabotaging hopes of peace. This bloodshed must end.”
The British Council is an arms-length body from the government, and says its mission is to “support peace and prosperity by building connections, understanding and trust between people in the UK and countries worldwide”.
It facilitates schemes like working, living and learning abroad for British people.
Most of its funding comes from the fees it charges people for its services, but it does also get funding from the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO).
As well as the attack on the British Council building, Russia also targeted the EU delegation building in the Ukrainian capital overnight.
Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, told reporters two missiles hit within 50 metres of the site in 20 seconds.
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Devastation in Kyiv after deadly Russian attack
And Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, said the bloc was also summoning Russia’s ambassador following the strike.
“No diplomatic mission should ever be a target,” she said.
The attacks came as part of wider strikes on Kyiv, which destroyed homes and buildings and killed at least 15 people and injured 38, according to Ukrainian officials.
Russia has said it targeted military sites and air bases in its large overnight strike on Ukraine – and that it is still interested in negotiations to meet its aims.
“The special military operation continues,” he said, referring to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which it launched in February 2022.
“You see that strikes on Russian infrastructure facilities are also continuing, and often Russian civilian infrastructure is targeted by the Kyiv regime.”
He added: “At the same time, Russia will maintain its interest in continuing the negotiation process in order to achieve the goals we face through political and diplomatic means.”
Russia’s latest attack on Ukraine has been widely condemned, with Germany’s foreign minister Johann Wadephul saying there must be “consequences”.
“Last night we once again experienced in a terrible way how Russia attacked and bombed Kyiv, civilians died, children died, and the European Union delegation was also attacked,” he told reporters.
“And that cannot remain without consequences.”
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Mr Wadephul added that Germany wanted to show it was considering a further response and that any action would be taken jointly by the EU.
A Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office Spokesperson said: “The UK condemns in the strongest terms these outrageous attacks on Ukrainians and the damage done to the British Council and EU Delegation.
“Russia’s increasing attacks on Ukrainian civilians and cities, including Kyiv, are an escalation of the war and deeply irresponsible and are further sabotaging international peace efforts.
“We have made clear to the Russians that such actions will only harden UK and Western resolve to support Ukraine and bring an end to this unjustified war.
“Russia must stop this senseless killing and destruction immediately.”
A former Metropolitan Police volunteer has been found guilty of raping and sexually assaulting a child.
James Bubb, who now identifies as a woman named Gwyn Samuels, assaulted the victim multiple times when she was between the ages of 12 and 18.
Jurors were told Bubb, who identified as male at the time of the offences, would be referred to by their biological sex when allegations were being discussed throughout the trial.
Bubb met the victim on a video chat site in 2018, when he was around 21 and she was 12 years old. They then met in person for the first time at a Christian festival a few months later, the court was told.
The trial heard Bubb sexually assaulted the girl in public shortly before her 13th birthday, and that he was violent towards the girl when he raped her in her early teens.
Pic: Thames Valley Police
In relation to the complainant, Bubb was on Thursday found guilty of one count of raping a child under 13, one count of sexual activity with a child, one count of assault of a child under 13 by penetration, and one count of assault by penetration.
He was found not guilty of one count of rape and one count of sexual activity with a child in relation to that complainant, and found guilty of one count of rape against a second person.
The defendant made no expression as the verdicts were read out, but sobbed with their head in their hands after the foreman finished speaking.
Bubb, who is now 27, started training with the Met in 2020.
The first victim said the defendant spoke “a lot about the powers he had” in his role as a special constable.
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The second complainant was a woman Bubb met online while posing as a 16-year-old girl.
They met when the woman had just turned 18, and were in an on-off relationship between January 2018 and February 2023.
She said Bubb used “BDSM and kink as a way of creating control” over her, and that he would “use police training techniques” on her.
“The control, the power he got, it sure as hell wasn’t consensual,” she told police.
Bubb, of Chesham, Buckinghamshire, will be sentenced at a later date.
Prince Harry will return to the UK on the third anniversary of Queen Elizabeth II’s death next month for a charity awards ceremony.
The Duke of Sussex, 40, will support the WellChild children’s charity on September 8.
Prince Harry, who lives in California with his wife, Meghan Markle, 44, is a long-standing patron of the charity.
The 2025 awards mark three years to the day that Queen Elizabeth II, the duke’s grandmother, died at her home in Balmoral, Aberdeenshire.
‘Their stories remind us of the power of compassion’
Harry said in a statement: “I am always privileged to attend the WellChild Awards and meet the incredible children, families and professionals who inspire us all with their strength and spirit.
“For 20 years, these awards have highlighted the courage of young people living with complex health needs and shone a light on the devoted caregivers – family and professionals – who support them every step of the way.
“Their stories remind us of the power of compassion, connection and community.”
Prince Harry lives in California with wife Meghan Markle. Pic: Yui Mok/Pool via REUTERS
Harry is set to make a speech, present an award to an “inspirational child” aged between four and six and meet and talk with seriously ill children and their families.
He has held the role of the charity’s patron for 17 years and has attended the awards 14 times before.
The charity describes itself as the national children’s charity “making it possible for children and young people with complex medical needs to thrive at home instead of hospital, wherever possible”.
Harry was last seen in the UK in May after losing a long-running battle with the Home Office over changes to his security arrangements.
The visit is likely to fuel speculation that he will meet with his father, the King, and estranged brother, Prince William.
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