The Russia-Ukraine war has reshaped global trade and forged new alliances

Published

2 months ago

September 1, 2025

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The vast majority of policymakers in Westminster, let alone elsewhere around the UK, have never heard of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the geopolitical grouping currently holding its summit at Tianjin, but hear me out on why we should all be paying considerable attention to it.

Because the more attention you pay to this grouping of 10 Eurasian states – most notably China, Russia and India – the more you start to realise that the long-term consequences of the war in Ukraine might well reach far beyond Europe’s borders, changing the contours of the world as we know it.

The best place to begin with this is in February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Back then, there were a few important hallmarks in the global economy. The amount of goods exported to Russia by the G7 – the equivalent grouping of rich, industrialised nations – was about the same as China’s exports. Europe was busily sucking in most Russian oil.

But roll on to today and G7 exports to Russia have gone to nearly zero (a consequence of sanctions). Russian assets, including government bonds previously owned by the Russian central bank, have been confiscated and their fate wrangled over. But Chinese exports to Russia, far from falling or even flatlining, have risen sharply. Exports of Chinese transportation equipment are up nearly 500%. Meanwhile, India has gone from importing next to no Russian oil to relying on the country for the majority of its crude imports.

Indeed, so much oil is India now importing from Russia that the US has said it will impose “secondary tariffs” on India, doubling the level of tariffs paid on Indian goods imported into America to 50% – one of the highest levels in the world.

The upshot of Ukraine, in other words, isn’t just misery and war in Europe. It’s a sharp divergence in economic strategies around the world. Some countries – notably the members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation – have doubled down on their economic relationship with Russia. Others have forsworn Russian business.

And in so doing, many of those Asian nations have begun to envisage something they had never quite imagined before: an economic future that doesn’t depend on the American financial infrastructure. Once upon a time, Asian nations were the biggest buyers of American government debt, in part to provide them with the dollars they needed to buy crude oil, which is generally denominated in the US currency. But since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has begun to sell its oil without denominating it in dollars.

At the same time, many Asian nations have reduced their purchases of US debt. Indeed, part of the explanation for the recent rise in US and UK government bond yields is that there is simply less demand for them from foreign investors than there used to be. The world is changing – and the foundations of what we used to call globalisation are shifting.

The penultimate reason to pay attention to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is that while once upon a time its members accounted for a small fraction of global economic output, today that fraction is on the rise. Indeed, if you adjust economic output to account for purchasing power, the share of global GDP accounted for by the nations meeting in Tianjin is close to overtaking the share of GDP accounted for by the world’s advanced nations.

And the final thing to note – something that would have seemed completely implausible only a few years ago – is that China and India, once sworn rivals, are edging closer to an economic rapprochement. With India now facing swingeing tariffs from the US, New Delhi sees little downside in a rare trip to China, to cement relations with Beijing. This is a seismic moment in geopolitics. For a long time, the world’s two most populous nations were at loggerheads. Now they are increasingly moving in lockstep with each other.

That is a consequence few would have guessed at when Russia invaded Ukraine. Yet it could be of enormous importance for geopolitics in future decades.

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Ex-French president Nicolas Sarkozy enters prison for five-year sentence

Published

4 hours ago

October 21, 2025

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Ex-French president Nicolas Sarkozy enters prison for five-year sentence

Nicolas Sarkozy declared his innocence and held hands with his wife before entering prison to begin his five-year sentence.

The 70-year-old was pictured with his wife Carla Bruni-Sarkozy on Tuesday morning ahead of travelling to Paris’ La Sante prison.

He was found guilty last month of criminal conspiracy over the alleged illegal financing of his 2007 presidential election campaign with funds from Libya.

Hundreds of supporters chanted “Nicolas, Nicolas” and sang the French national anthem as he left his home this morning and stepped into the car that would take him to jail.

It caps a stunning downfall of the man who led France between 2007 and 2012.

Sarkozy’s sons and daughter, Jean, Pierre, Louis and Giulia, and his grandchildren showed up at the gathering.

As he prepared to begin his prison term, he posted a message on social media repeating his claims that he is an “innocent man” and said he feels a “deep sorrow for France”.

He will be the first former French leader to be jailed since Nazi collaborator Marshal Philippe Petain after the Second World War.

In his statement, Sarkozy said: “As I prepare to cross the walls of La Sante prison, my thoughts go out to the French people of all walks of life and opinions,” he said.

“I want to tell them with my unwavering strength that it is not a former President of the Republic who is being locked up this morning, it is an innocent person.”

He added: “I feel deep sorrow for France, which finds itself humiliated by the expression of a vengeance that has taken hatred to an unprecedented level. I have no doubt. The truth will triumph. But the price to pay will have been crushing.”

Parisian resident Michelle Perie, 67, said she came out to support “because there is anger, injustice”.

“He’s not like any other defendants, he’s someone who holds state secrets, he’s someone who has always done his job with his head held high. We don’t understand,” she said.

Sarkozy’s lawyers said he will be held in solitary confinement, where he will be kept away from all other prisoners for security reasons.

The former president told French newspaper Le Figaro he would take three books with him, including Alexandre Dumas’ The Count of Monte Cristo, in which the hero escapes from an island prison before seeking revenge.

World

Gunman who shot Slovak PM sentenced to 21 years in jail

Published

4 hours ago

October 21, 2025

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Gunman who shot Slovak PM sentenced to 21 years in jail

A man who shot and badly wounded Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has been given a 21-year jail sentence after being found guilty of terrorism charges.

Juraj Cintula, 72, opened fire on Mr Fico in May 2024, hitting him five times from little more than a one-metre distance as the prime minister greeted supporters in the central Slovak town of Handlová.

Cintula, who was acting alone, said he had not intended to kill Mr Fico and claimed his motive was that he disagreed with government policies.

The Slovakian leader, 64, was seriously injured in the attack. He was struck in the abdomen and also sustained wounds to his hip, hand and foot. He was rushed to hospital and immediately underwent five-hour long surgery.

Mr Fico has since recovered and made his first public appearance a few months after the attack.

The shooting and subsequent trial have shaken this small, European Union and NATO-member country, where populist Mr Fico has long been a divisive figure. He’s often been criticised for straying from Slovakia’s pro-Western path and aligning it closer to Russia.

Cintula was arrested immediately after the attack. When questioned by investigators, he rejected the accusation of being a “terrorist”.

In testimony read out at his trial, Cintula stated: “I decided to harm the health of the prime minister but I had no intention to kill anyone.”

He added that he was relieved when he learned the prime minister survived.

“The defendant did not attack a citizen, but specifically the prime minister,” Igor Králik, the head of the three-judge panel, said in delivering the verdict.

“He was against the government, he was inciting people to overthrow the government.”

Cintula can still appeal the verdict, but it was not immediately clear if he would do so.

In the aftermath of the attack, Mr Fico said he “had no reason to believe” the attack was the work of just one person and repeatedly blamed the liberal opposition and media for the assassination attempt. There is no evidence for that.

The Slovak leader had previously said he “had no reason to believe” it was an attack by a lone deranged person.

He repeatedly blamed the liberal opposition and media for the assassination attempt, although no evidence was provided for these claims.

Populist Mr Fico returned to power for the fourth time after his leftist Smer, or Direction, party won the 2023 parliamentary election after campaigning on a pro-Russia and anti-American message.

Thousands have repeatedly rallied in Bratislava and across Slovakia to protest Fico’s pro-Russian stance and other policies.

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Japan’s parliament votes in country’s first ever female PM

Published

12 hours ago

October 21, 2025

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Japan's parliament votes in country's first ever female PM

Japan’s parliament has voted in the country’s first ever female prime minister.

Sanae Takaichi won 237 votes in the 465-seat lower chamber of parliament, and is also set to secure a majority in the less powerful upper house before being sworn in later today.

Tuesday’s votes came after her Liberal Democratic Party agreed to a coalition with the right-wing Japan Innovation Party yesterday.

The last-minute deal came after the Liberal Democrats lost its longterm partner, the Buddhist-backed Komeito, which has a more centrist stance.

Incumbent prime minister Shigeru Ishiba, of Ms Takaichi’s party, announced his resignation last month.

While Ms Takaichi’s election marks the shattering of a glass ceiling for Japan, it also marks a sharp tack to the right.

She is a staunchly conservative figure who cites Margaret Thatcher as an inspiration, and comes to power at a time when the country is increasingly worried about the cost of living and immigration.

Japan is currently grappling with rising prices that have sparked public anger, fuelling support for oppositions groups including the far-right Sanseito party.

Ms Takaichi’s untested alliance is still short of a majority in both houses of parliament and she will need to win over other opposition groups to pass any legislation – which could make her government unstable.

She said at Monday’s signing ceremony: “Political stability is essential right now. Without stability, we cannot push measures for a strong economy or diplomacy.”

While she is Japan’s first female PM, Ms Takaichi has previously shown she is in no rush to promote gender equality or diversity.

She is among the Japanese politicians who have stonewalled measures for women’s advancements and she supports the imperial family’s male-only succession, while opposing same-sex marriage and allowing separate surnames for married couples.