Passan’s early MLB free agency intel: Tucker, Schwarber and the potential $200 million ace you’ve never heard of
Every Major League Baseball offseason comes with its own unique brand of intrigue, and this year it is concern that the fear of a lockout and potentially prolonged labor stoppage in 2026-27 could bleed into the free agent market a year early.
In the winter of 2020-21, the last offseason that preceded a collective bargaining agreement expiration, free agent spending plunged precipitously, alarming players. It was a down class, sure, and COVID-related concerns remained palpable, yes, but players nevertheless saw it as a reminder that labor issues can infiltrate all areas of all markets at all times.
The class of 2025-26 is perfectly OK. It has a no-doubt multi-hundred-million-dollar anchor in Kyle Tucker, an MVP-caliber slugger in Kyle Schwarber, a do-everything infielder in Alex Bregman (if he opts out), a number of interesting starting pitchers (without an obvious headliner), solid relief arms and plenty of depth.
Does the group have enough to reach the $3 billion spending threshold that has been exceeded in each of the past four winters, though? The answer to that could very well depend on three names unfamiliar to most domestic baseball fans.
The Japanese revolution in MLB is not slowing down, and another impressive group is expected to come stateside for the 2026 season. Right-hander Tatsuya Imai and a pair of slugging third basemen — Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto — hope to play in MLB, according to sources, though their doing so depends on their Nippon Professional Baseball teams’ willingness to enter them into the posting system that serves as a conduit to the big leagues for those NPB players who have yet to play the nine years necessary for international free agency.
Imai, 27, is the most anonymous of the group — and, according to scouts who have watched him pitch this year, perhaps the most intriguing. His talent belies his wispy 5-foot-11, 154-pound frame. He is the hardest-throwing starter in Japan, with a fastball that sits at 95 mph and tops out at 99, and with a vicious slider, a changeup, a splitter, a curveball and a sinker he picked up this season, Imai has the sort of pitch mix that teams covet.
Imai’s numbers this year are silly: a 1.50 ERA with 159 strikeouts, 37 walks and just four home runs allowed in 143⅔ innings pitched. And although the dead ball in Japan certainly factors in, the quality of Imai’s stuff supports his otherworldliness. The big league success of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga — each an inch shorter than Imai — has also helped allay fears of diminutive starters who have pervaded baseball for decades. Upward of 20 major league scouts were at his start Tuesday, when he punched out 10 in a two-hit shutout.
With Imai flashing excellent control for the first time in his career, it would make sense for the Saitama Seibu Lions to reap a hefty posting fee by allowing him to come to the majors now. Imai won’t get the $325 million the Dodgers gave Yamamoto, but the combination of his age, performance and premier offerings have front office officials offering gaudy predictions. One suggested Imai could get upward of $200 million, though others balked at that number. A second source said he thinks Imai will receive a $150 million contract. Another said something like Patrick Corbin‘s 2018 contract with the Washington Nationals — six years, $140 million. The lowest number, among the dozen officials and scouts surveyed, was $80 million, which, with the desire for starting pitching and the number of years Imai should get because he’ll be the youngest one on the market, feels light.
The markets for Murakami and Okamoto aren’t quite as defined. Murakami wanted to come to MLB last year but was not 25 years old and thus would have been subject to signing as an international amateur free agent, with a ceiling of around a $10 million payday. Now 25, he will likely be posted by the Yakult Swallows and has been scouted in person this season by New York Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns and San Diego Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, the latter of whom saw Murakami whack three home runs for the Yakult Swallows on Saturday (and was later at Imai’s gem, too).
In limited playing time this season due to injury, the 6-foot-2, 213-pound Murakami has displayed his prodigious left-handed power. In a league where there’s a home run every 60 plate appearances, Murakami has hit 15 in 138 — one every 9.2 times up. Three years ago, Murakami smashed 56 homers, surpassing Sadaharu Oh’s single-season home run record that had stood since 1964. For all the questions about Murakami’s game — he strikes out too much and he might need to shift to first base or a corner outfield spot — the power is transoceanic.
Should Murakami continue his late-season power surge, the ceiling on his deal is even higher than Imai’s. The last MLB player to reach free agency at 25 was Alex Rodriguez. Age matters significantly, and the prospect of getting any player’s age 26 to 29 seasons is tantalizing — particularly one of Murakami’s caliber.
The 29-year-old Okamoto has been NPB’s most consistent power hitter since joining the Yomiuri Giants full-time in 2018. While a left elbow injury sustained in a collision playing first base — where, like Murakami, he could wind up — sidelined him for 3½ months, Okamoto is leading NPB with a .314 batting average with nearly as many walks (21) as strikeouts (23) and 11 home runs in 201 plate appearances. He is regarded by evaluators as the biggest question mark to make the leap, and he’s in line for a shorter-term deal than the others, but a contract for $50 million-plus is plenty realistic, especially with a September that proves his elbow healed.
Here are 10 other storylines to follow heading into the winter:
1. How much does Kyle Tucker get?
Tucker’s roller-coaster season has whipsawed predictions of his ultimate contract all over the place. Coming into the season, Tucker, who will be 29 in January, looked like a $350-400 million player because of his incredible consistency and all-around production. When Tucker is healthy, he hits, runs and fields at an exceptional level — a rare combination of skills. When you added in a hot start (his OPS was .931 at the end of June), matching Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $500 million deal didn’t look unreasonable.
Then came July. Tucker disappeared. He was trying to play through a broken finger, and in his first 26 games after the All-Star break, his OPS was .572 — lower than his slugging percentage alone last season. The Cubs gave Tucker three games off, and the breather did him some good. Even with that bad stretch, only once in his career has he posted an OPS+ higher than this season, and that was last year, when he missed half the season.
Tucker’s best comparable might be Mookie Betts, not because of the similarities of their games but rather the level at which they produce while maintaining minuscule strikeout rates. Few players are as good at any of the three facets of the game as Tucker, let alone all three. Betts is the most obvious, and he signed a 12-year, $365 million deal that started in his age-28 season.
So, yeah, the number is going to be big — likely in the $400 million range. The Philadelphia Phillies could desperately use a big corner outfield bat, particularly if the next player on this list takes his talents elsewhere. The San Francisco Giants need a complement to Rafael Devers in the middle of the lineup. Others, including the Cubs, will be in the mix. The market will find Tucker, as it eventually does with the best players in every class.
2. What will teams pay for a DH?
Kyle Schwarber will begin next season as a 33-year-old designated hitter, which is not the sort of résumé that often — ever, actually — leads to a free agent windfall. To which Phillies fans, in unison, would reply: He’s different.
And they’re right. Schwarber is. He leads the National League in home runs and RBIs. He’s third in MLB in weighted on-base average behind Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, his two compatriots atop pretty much every measurable offensive category that matters. He plays every day — literally all 139 of the Phillies’ games — and in late and close situations this year is OPSing 1.244, nearly 100 points higher than the next-best hitter, Ohtani. Beyond that, Schwarber is regarded as the stickiest of glue guys, a font of knowledge whose interpersonal acuity makes him invaluable in a clubhouse.
Because of all he brings, Schwarber is going to get paid. Like, paid paid. Teams will scoff because of the age, the strikeouts, the positional inflexibility. But Schwarber’s total package will ultimately push some of them off such concerns and trigger a bidding war. If he wants, he can get at least four years. The salary, at that term, should be at least $30 million a year. And although remaining in Philadelphia makes the most sense, enough teams have holes at DH — looking at you, Texas, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston, Detroit, Cincinnati — that no amount of labor unrest will cause Schwarber’s market to dry up.
3. Does Alex Bregman stay or go?
Bregman signed a three-year, $120 million contract with the Boston Red Sox on the eve of spring training, and the fit has been exceptional. Bregman has taken over the Red Sox’s clubhouse and become their unquestioned leader: a baseball rat whose wisdom is exceeded by his willingness to help his teammates find the best versions of themselves. It’s rare to find a player who has such a wide base of knowledge and the ability to teach it, too.
Because his deal included opt-outs after each of the first two seasons, Bregman could be playing elsewhere in 2026. Barring an injury or catastrophic slump, he will opt out and join Tucker and Schwarber in a clear top tier among this winter’s free agents.
Boston recognizes what it would be losing were Bregman to embark elsewhere. The excellent at-bats. The glove at third base. The relationships with Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell he forged during spring training. The attitude. The focus. The feeling that in this next incarnation of the Red Sox, he belongs somewhere in the middle.
Complicating matters for the Red Sox, though, are the teams in need of better production at third that might be willing to spend for what Bregman provides. The Phillies. The Yankees. The Tigers. And it will take more than three years this time even though he’ll be going into his age-32 season. After one of the more lucrative pillow contracts ever, Bregman is bound to get the five-year-plus deal at an average annual value of $35 million-plus that eluded him last winter.
4. Who else will choose to be a free agent?
Here is a baker’s dozen decisions players must make within five days of the end of the World Series and the early lean on them:
Pete Alonso, Mets, first baseman: This one’s a no-brainer. Alonso got $30 million to play this year and will forgo $24 million next year after his fourth career 30-homer, 100-RBI season.
Will he opt out: Yes.
Edwin Diaz, Mets, closer: Díaz has two years and $37 million left on his deal, but with a 1.87 ERA and 4.5-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, he’s headed for free agency, barring the Mets doing what they did three years ago when they re-signed him before he hit the open market.
Will he opt out: Yes, unless he re-ups first.
Cody Bellinger, Yankees, outfielder: At 30, Bellinger will be one of the best bats on the market when he turns down his $25 million player option (which includes a $5 million buyout). He’s on pace to put up his most home runs and RBIs since his 2019 NL MVP campaign and will seek nine figures this winter.
Will he opt out: Yes.
Robert Suarez, Padres, closer: The 34-year-old right-hander is not going to get the sort of long-term contract Díaz receives but looking for greater riches than the two years and $16 million he’s due on his current deal makes plenty of sense.
Will he opt out: Yes.
Shane Bieber, Blue Jays, right-handed starter: Being traded to Toronto allowed Bieber a hall pass from the qualifying offer, which is enough to take his $4 million buyout and turn down a $16 million option — provided he remains healthy for the rest of the season.
Will he opt out: Yes.
Jack Flaherty, Tigers, right-handed starter: While Flaherty’s 4.74 ERA is unsightly, he has struck out 169 in 142⅓ innings, enough for him to consider turning down $20 million and seeking a greater guarantee in free agency.
Will he opt out: Yes.
Trevor Story, Red Sox, shortstop: The lack of shortstop depth in the class makes it tempting, but the combination of what Story is owed (two years, $55 million) and his age (33 next year) is too risky to give up, even after a strong comeback season.
Will he opt out: No — probably.
Tyler O’Neill, Orioles, outfielder: In his first year with Baltimore, O’Neill has played 43 games and put up precisely 0.0 wins above replacement. With two years and $33 million left on his deal, this is an easy decision.
Will he opt out: No.
Joc Pederson, Rangers, DH: Regardless of his recent surge, Pederson won’t find $18.5 million anywhere on the free agent market.
Will he opt out: No.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Diamondbacks, outfielder: Even before tearing an ACL on Monday, Gurriel was not declining his $18 million player option.
Will he opt out: No.
Ha-Seong Kim, Braves, shortstop: The Braves claimed Kim off waivers from the Rays earlier this week and, in the process, might have solved their short-term shortstop problem. As good as Kim can be when healthy, he wasn’t this year, and picking up a $16 million player option before hitting free agency again makes the most sense.
Will he opt out: No.
Frankie Montas, Mets, right-handed starter: Montas will miss the rest of this year — and perhaps all of next year — after tearing his ulnar collateral ligament. He will make $17 million rehabbing.
Will he opt out: No.
A.J. Minter, Mets, left-handed reliever: Minter threw 11 innings before a season-ending lat injury. And as good as those 11 innings were, they weren’t good enough to pass up $11 million for next season.
Will he opt out: No.
5. What about the players with club options?
Teams love club options. And this list shows why. More often than not, the options — especially for top players — wound up getting exercised.
Likely to be picked up by the team:
Shota Imanaga, Cubs, three years, $57 million
Luis Robert Jr., White Sox, $20 million
Chris Sale, Braves, $18 million
Salvador Perez, Royals, $13.5 million
Brandon Lowe, Rays, $11.5 million
Max Muncy, Dodgers, $10 million
Jose Alvarado, Phillies, $9 million
Freddy Peralta, Brewers, $8 million
Ozzie Albies, Braves, $7 million
Pete Fairbanks, Rays, $7 million
Pierce Johnson, Braves, $7 million
Ramon Laureano, Padres, $6.5 million
Andrew Muñoz, Mariners, $6 million
Tyler Kinley, Braves, $5 million
Tim Hill, Yankees, $3 million
Borderline:
Colin Rea, Cubs, $6 million
Brent Suter, Reds, $3 million
Unlikely to be picked up:
Andrew Kittredge, Cubs, $9 million
Scott Barlow, Reds, $6.5 million
John Means, Guardians, $6 million
Kyle Hart, Padres, $5 million
Jonathan Loaisiga, Yankees, $5 million
Tom Murphy, Giants, $4 million
Jose Urquidy, Tigers, $4 million
6. Which starting pitchers are going to get paid?
It begins with Framber Valdez, who, since he joined Houston’s rotation full time in 2020, holds the following ranks among the 61 pitchers who averaged at least 100 innings a season:
Wins: 1st
Ground ball rate: 1st
Home run rate: 2nd
Innings pitched: 5th
ERA: 8th
FIP: 10th
The incident Tuesday with catcher César Salazar — in which Valdez hit the rookie in the chest with a 93-mph sinker in what both later blamed miscommunication of the pitch called — did not go unnoticed by front offices. Multiple officials noted that when pitchers and catchers get crossed up, the pitcher typically looks at the catcher and expresses concern. As Salazar glared toward the mound, wondering what had happened, Valdez’s back was turned.
It is also one data point, and while such an event can burrow it’s way into front offices’ minds, Valdez’s stuff is so good, his numbers so consistent — his highest full-season ERA is 3.45, his lowest 2.82 — and his playoff resume so long, even at 32 he’ll find multiple suitors willing to offer nine figures.
The other starting pitcher options include:
Dylan Cease, Padres, right-hander: The stuff remains elite, and front offices adore him despite a 4.71 ERA. He’ll be 30 going into next season and is likely to be saddled with a qualifying offer, so he’s a candidate for a shorter-term deal with multiple opt-outs unless a team falls in love and hands him a bag.
Michael King, Padres, right-hander: After an injury-riddled season, all it would take is a handful of good starts in September for King to remind teams he was the best-performing pitcher of the bunch over the past two years when he was healthy.
Ranger Suárez, Padres, left-hander: Velocity excepted, Suárez is good at everything. He throws six pitches, has cut his walk rate to a career low, strikes out hitters, is on pace for a career high in innings and, at 30, in a market with a paucity of lefties, is primed to cash in.
Merrill Kelly, Rangers, right-hander: It’s not powerful, but Kelly’s game is pretty. The pitch mix, the command — it all has allowed him the opportunity, at 37 in October, to cash in on a multiyear deal this winter. Bonus: It’s without the pesky qualifying offer because he was traded midseason.
Zac Gallen, D-backs, right-hander: He has been better lately — perhaps good enough to get tagged with a qualifying offer. Could he accept it and then hit the free agent market at 31 after 2026? Or is this one of the many cases in which labor-stoppage fear prompts a free agent to seek something longer term now?
Lucas Giolito, Red Sox, right-hander: Giolito has a $14 million club option that unquestionably will be picked up — but with 14⅔ more innings, it converts to a $19 million mutual option, which Giolito will reject in favor of the multiyear contract he has more than earned.
7. How good are the relief pitchers?
Beyond Diaz and Suárez, Boston closer Aroldis Chapman looked primed for a multiyear deal before he agreed to a one-year, $13 million contract with an option for 2027 with the Red Sox over the weekend. Though it took the best-performing reliever of 2025 off the market, plenty of others remain. Among those available:
Ryan Helsley, Mets, right-hander: In one month with the Mets, he has erased his entire WAR total from the previous four. Helsley’s stuff will get him a fine deal — he will get multiple years at eight figures per — but not nearly as fine as he would have liked it to be.
Devin Williams, Yankees, right-hander: After entering this season primed to threaten Diaz’s record deal, Williams has struggled with the Yankees and is looking at a one-year make-good deal. Working in his favor: a 2.85 FIP that suggests better things to come.
Luke Weaver, Yankees, right-hander: He’s a closer for half the teams in baseball. And he’s going to get paid like it this winter. Weaver just needs to keep his home run rate down.
Kyle Finnegan, Tigers, right-hander: Since joining Detroit at the deadline, Finnegan hasn’t allowed a run in 14⅓ innings, has struck out 19 and allowed just three hits and three walks. He’s setting himself up for a nice payday and is hopeful the groin issue that kept him from entering Wednesday’s game isn’t serious.
Drew Pomeranz, Cubs left-hander: Pitching in the big leagues for the first time in four years, Pomeranz allowed just two earned runs for the Chicago Cubs in his first 25⅔ innings. Since the All-Star break, he has given up nine in 13⅔. Some regression was expected, but Pomeranz’s offseason fortunes will depend on his performance in September and October.
Brad Keller, Cubs, right-hander: Another Cubs reclamation project, Keller, a longtime starter, turned in the best season of his career out of the bullpen. The best part: At 30, he’s one of the younger relievers available.
Tyler Rogers, Mets, right-hander: The sidearmer entered this season with a 2.93 ERA and has fared more than a full run better this season with the Giants and Mets. He’s probably not a closer, but he’s exactly the sort of pitcher who thrives facing the middle of the order. Nos. 3, 4 and 5 hitters are batting .213 with 17 strikeouts, one walk and four extra-base hits against Rogers this year.
Taylor Rogers, Cubs, left-hander: The veteran closer — and twin brother of Tyler — has a season that makes no sense. With a 34-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio in Cincinnati, Taylor managed to post a 2.45 ERA in 40 games. For the Cubs since the deadline, he has struck out 16, walked two and wound up with a 6.75 ERA.
Raisel Iglesias, Braves, right-hander: The 35-year-old has salvaged his season with a good second half after the home run ball clipped him too often in the first half. Iglesias has allowed just one homer in his past 21 innings after yielding six in his first 20⅓.
Kirby Yates, Dodgers, right-hander: The Dodgers nearly doubled Yates’ career-best single-season salary to pair him with Tanner Scott as a two-headed, late-inning duo. It has been as scary as a puppy. And yet teams will happily take Yates and his 46 strikeouts in 35⅓ innings.
Michael Kopech, Dodgers, right-hander: Kopech could make himself plenty of money with a strong September and October. And considering the state of the Dodgers’ bullpen, there’s ample opportunity for him to capture high-leverage innings.
Kenley Jansen, Angels, right-hander: Old reliable, Jansen is in line for his first sub-3.00 ERA since 2021. And although for the first time in his 16-year career he’s going to fall short of double-digit strikeouts per nine innings, Jansen’s effectiveness remains.
Hoby Milner, Rangers, left-hander: The 34-year-old Milner sits around 87 mph with his sinker, and it’s damn near unhittable. As much as his ERAs in 2023 (1.82) and 2024 (4.73) were outliers, Milner is putting up his fourth straight year of a 3.16-or-better FIP. The only others to do that? Milner’s Texas teammate Chris Martin, Williams and Emmanuel Clase, whose career status is uncertain amid an MLB gambling investigation.
Gregory Soto, Mets, left-hander: Among all left-handed relievers with at least 49⅔ innings, only Chapman throws harder than him. Nobody ever will mistake Soto for a control artist, but the stuff is playing, and even if another opportunity to close doesn’t come along, he can carve out a nice career in the middle.
8. How will the industry value Bo Bichette?
After last year’s uncharacteristic cratering, the real Bo Bichette has returned. And we say real because over his first five seasons in the major leagues, Bichette posted a .307/.352/.477. slash line, and this year it’s .310/.354/.478. That sandwiches him between Bobby Witt Jr. and Trea Turner in terms of wOBA among shortstops with at least 130 games. It’s a tremendous platform season for any free agent.
So why are there questions about Bichette’s value? Every publicly available defensive metric has him as the worst defensive shortstop in baseball. Same goes for three teams surveyed independently. And considering top shortstops tend to get more than $250 million in free agency, position — and the ability to stay at a premium one — can be the difference between joining that echelon and falling short.
Despite those concerns, there are some real positives: Bichette is only 27 years old, not 28 until March, the youngest of all the free agents. He’s in his prime with years left to spare. He’s a consistent .300-plus hitter. He goes to all fields. He’s got power. His problem with lateral mobility could easily be solved by a move to third base — though it remains to be seen if he would want to change positions — and his bat would be good enough to play there, too.
Whatever position Bichette mans, wherever he plays, he is a hitter in an era with far too few. Maybe he’s not a $300 million player. But if Turner is worth $300 million and Xander Bogaerts is worth $280 million and both were at least two years older than Bichette when they did sign, surely the market won’t leave him high and dry.
9. Which other infielders will have the most fruitful winters?
For all the consternation about what second baseman Gleyber Torres was and wasn’t with the New York Yankees, what he has been with the Tigers is a completely different version. There were signs of this kind of player in 2020, but the season was truncated, and never again, until now, has he shown such elite plate discipline. Torres is getting on base at a .364 clip — and his expected numbers (which reflect the sort of data teams value) rank sixth in the AL, behind only Judge, Corey Seager, Ben Rice, George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Torres will start next season at 29, a year older than first baseman Josh Naylor, who’s among the youngest players in the class. The age, while genuinely alluring, is not the only thing in Naylor’s favor. He continues to be who he has always been: a bat-to-ball savant with enough power to stick at first. His 23 stolen bases this season are exceptional for a player of Naylor’s build, and although he is prone to slumps — he has been in one of late — by the end of the season his numbers always look around the same. And that’s productive.
Then there’s the matter of Naylor’s Mariners teammate Eugenio Suárez, who at one point led the National League in home runs. Suárez is 34, and after a disaster of a first few weeks in Seattle, he has climbed back to around a league-average bat with the Mariners. He’s a beloved clubhouse figure, and with the prices and desired length of contracts for Bregman, the Japanese corner infielders and even Bichette high, Suárez could be the sort who winds up with a strong deal from a lower-revenue team willing to overpay on a shorter term.
Others who play on the dirt worth monitoring: Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto, Brewers first baseman Rhys Hoskins, Cubs super-utility man Willi Castro and one more, who has one of the most fascinating free agent cases in years.
10. Why did it take you this long to mention the three-time batting champion?
Padres infielder Luis Arraez is one of the most intriguing free agents in years because he is exceptional at a few things, mediocre at everything else and has no obvious comparable player this century. On the good side: Nobody strikes out as infrequently as Arraez, who has just 17 punchouts in 587 plate appearances. Because he puts the ball in play so much, Arraez tends to have a high batting average, too. He won three consecutive batting titles before slumping to .285 this season.
On the other hand, Arraez, one of the younger players in the class at 28, has minimal power, is a below-average defender, can’t run and doesn’t walk. If it weren’t for the extreme bat-to-ball skills, Arraez would not be in the big leagues.
Arraez’s free agency isn’t exactly the litmus test for the value of batting average in modern baseball, but it’s a reasonable signal amid plenty of noise. Batting average matters. Plenty. It doesn’t matter as much as on-base percentage — which, until this year, Arraez had at a .372 clip — or slugging percentage. (Teams tolerate low-average, high-slug players and eagerly avoid high-average, low-slug sorts.) But it matters, and when compounded with the paucity of strikeouts, it’s an asset to whichever team signs him. The question of how much they’ll pay him remains open.
One of the winners in the first College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday was the Big 12. BYU (No. 7) and Texas Tech (No. 8) showed up in the top 10, and Utah sits within striking distance at No. 13.
It adds up to make Saturday’s matchup between the Cougars and Red Raiders — perhaps a Big 12 title game preview — the most consequential in college football. A loss for either team wouldn’t necessarily remove it from the playoff conversation but would strike a significant blow and leave little room for error down the stretch.
The two other ranked matchups this week are No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 22 Missouri and No. 9 Oregon at No. 20 Iowa. Look out for Iowa. The Hawkeyes are coming off a convincing win against Minnesota and appear to have turned a corner offensively. Meanwhile, the Ducks have had a couple of weeks to prepare after they failed to impress in a 21-7 win against Wisconsin on Oct. 25. — Kyle Bonagura
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Texas A&M | Five freshmen to know
BYU-Texas Tech | Quotes of the week
How the Texas A&M got better in 2025
There haven’t been any wholesale schematic changes, it’s just that the Aggies finally added a couple of contributors at wide receiver to give offensive coordinator Collin Klein more juice. Other than that, they’ve just grown up. A&M’s offensive line was a giant weakness at the end of the Jimbo Fisher era, but offensive line coach Adam Cushing has worked wonders, fashioning a group in the running for the Joe Moore Award, which goes to the most outstanding OL unit. Quarterback Marcel Reed is in his first full season as the starter, so he has added experience, and the solid protection means he can get through his reads. But the additions of Mario Craver and KC Concepcion at receiver, one of only three tandems in the SEC who each have more than 500 receiving yards, have given the Aggies breathing room. The vertical threats open up the running game (Craver’s 455 receiving yards after the catch is the second most in the FBS), and Klein’s offense also stretches teams horizontally.
Last season, there just weren’t any A&M receivers getting separation. This season, Reed is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt beyond the line of scrimmage, the second-most air yards per throw in the SEC behind Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar. That kind of room opens up running lanes. The Aggies average 2.35 yards per rush before contact, third best in the SEC, and that also benefits Reed. He has had both passing and rushing touchdowns in four straight games, the longest streak by an Aggie since Johnny Manziel had five in 2012 and something only five SEC players have done in the past 15 years. — Dave Wilson
Five freshmen who’ve made a name for themselves
Bear Bachmeier, QB, BYU: Bachmeier left Stanford, hit the transfer portal and replaced a returning starter before playing a single snap this fall. On Saturday, he leads the unbeaten Cougars into a pivotal Big 12 showdown at No. 8 Texas Tech with BYU in the thick of the playoff hunt. Bachmeier has delivered on the dual-threat promise he flashed out of high school, accounting for 2,101 all-purpose yards and 20 total touchdowns in eight starts. Among true freshman quarterbacks, he ranks first nationally in completion percentage (58.7%), passer rating (95.2) and yards per attempt (7.9). And at 6-foot-2 and 220 pounds, Bachmeier is also getting it done on the ground, entering Week 10 tied for seventh in rushing scores (9) among FBS passers. The Cougars’ first-year quarterback appears to be the full package, and Bachmeier is a big reason No. 7 BYU hits the back end of the regular season firmly contending for a playoff spot.
Mason Heintschel, QB, Pitt: A three-star prospect in the 2025 class, Heintschel has been a revelation for the 24th-ranked Panthers, who appeared in the College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday for only the second time since December 2021. Pitt (7-2) is 5-0 since Heintschel took over for season-opening starter Eli Holstein at Boston College on Oct. 4. Over those five games, Heintschel has thrown for 1,547 yards with 12 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. One of only five true freshman quarterbacks with 200-plus passing attempts in the FBS, Heintschel sits tied with Maryland’s Malik Washington for the most TDs within that group and trails only Bachmeier in completion percentage (64.1%) and passer rating (92.0). Turnovers — nine total in five games — have been a problem for Heintschel, and his ball security and relative inexperience will be tested in matchups with Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and Miami to close the regular season.
Caleb Hawkins, RB, North Texas: For all the (warranted) conversation about Mean Green quarterback Drew Mestemaker, Hawkins is writing an unlikely success story of his own in the nation’s No. 2 scoring offense this fall. Fresh off a 33-carry, 197-yard, 4-touchdown performance against Navy in Week 10, the three-star newcomer from Shawnee, Oklahoma, leads all freshman running backs across the country in attempts (121), rushing yards (744) and touchdowns (11). Among FBS rushers with at least 50 carries this fall, Hawkins ranks tied for fifth in rushing scores and 11th in yards per attempt (6.1). Inevitably, Hawkins’ breakout debut season is already earning him the attention of Power 4 programs as a potential offseason transfer portal target. But for now, he’s one of the key parts of a high-scoring offense that has North Texas contending for an American Conference title, and in turn, a potential place in the playoff field.
Graceson Littleton, CB, Texas: A late addition to the Longhorns’ top-ranked 2025 recruiting class, the 6-foot, 180-pound defensive back has become a fixture in a new-look Texas secondary powering the nation’s 25th-ranked pass defense. Primarily operating at slot corner, Littleton has tallied 33 total tackles and a pair of pass breakups while playing more snaps (409) than all but four other Longhorns defenders this fall, and his two interceptions — including a fourth-quarter pick against Oklahoma on Oct. 11 — leave him tied for the national lead among freshmen defensive backs across the FBS. Through nine games, Littleton has blossomed into an instant contributor with the makings of a future star in the Texas secondary, where he and the No. 11 Longhorns are staring down a pair of daunting late-season matchups with No. 5 Georgia and No. 3 Texas A&M.
Malachi Toney, WR, Miami: The pass catcher they call “Baby Jesus” in Coral Gables isn’t just putting together the best freshman receiving season across the FBS. Toney, who reclassified from the 2026 cycle to enter college early, is also already one of the nation’s productive wide receivers. No first-year pass catcher has recorded more targets (66), receptions (52) and receiving yards (632) than Toney in 2025. And among all receivers nationally, the 5-11 newcomer from Liberty City, Florida, ranks seventh in yards after catch (390) and 16th in first-down receptions (31). Toney, who has yet to drop a pass in his college career, has immediately become one of the country’s most electrifying playmakers this fall, and he projects to be a central contributor to whatever the 18th-ranked Hurricanes do from here — in 2025 and beyond. — Eli Lederman
What do BYU, Texas Tech need to capitalize on to win?
BYU: Keep it close. This is a team that has proved it has the poise to pull out close games, and in a game like this, that matters. Texas Tech has been winning more convincingly and it was perhaps its lack of experience in tight contests that backfired against Arizona State a few weeks ago.
For true freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier, Texas Tech’s impressive front seven will force him to make faster decisions. It will be his most challenging test of the season and he needs to play close to error-free for BYU to find a rhythm on offense.
Despite the undefeated record, BYU hasn’t been as good defensively as it was a year ago. This would be a perfect game to reach its capabilities. — Bonagura
Texas Tech: In a must-win game for the Red Raiders’ Big 12 title hopes, they need to keep quarterback Behren Morton protected and healthy. Will Hammond is out for the season and can’t step in to save the day if Morton goes down again. Finishing drives is a major challenge in this one. No FBS team has kicked more field goals in the red zone than Texas Tech (15-for-15 this season), and Utah coming up short on three fourth-down conversions in field goal range helped swing the Holy War game.
On defense, Texas Tech’s No. 1-ranked rushing defense needs to contain Big 12 leading rusher LJ Martin and get Bachmeier into third-and-long. The freshman has been disciplined in those situations with an 88.4 QBR and no turnovers and can scramble out of trouble, but he hasn’t yet faced David Bailey and Romello Height. — Max Olson
Quotes of the week
“I think we are desperate,” Texas A&M coach Mike Elko said of his unbeaten Aggies. “I tell them all the time: You know, we have earned everything that we’ve got, right? We’ve got a record. We’ve got a ranking. We’ve got opportunities that we have worked really, really hard to earn. And, every single Saturday, someone is coming in and trying to take all of that from us, and that’s the urgency that we have.”
“They’re big humans that take up a lot of space,” Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire said of BYU’s talent on both sides of the line of scrimmage. “We’re going to have to do a great job up front on our double-teams. You know, we’re going to have to win our one-on-ones. I think that’s huge.”
Miami’s Mario Cristobal on the message to his team after the Hurricanes’ Week 10 loss to SMU: “When things go wrong, that’s when all the rats start to come out and try to peck at you and all that other stuff. You got to go tell them to go. You know what? Go to work, and do it emphatically and do it with some guts. Go fix the things that we have to fix so we can go get better and win.”
Oregon’s Dan Lanning ahead of the No. 9 Ducks’ Week 11 trip to No. 20 Iowa: “I’m shocked this team isn’t ranked [in the AP poll]. If you look at the way they’ve been playing, especially recently, and the job that they’ve done. They jumped out really fast against the Minnesota team that plays good football, had a big win this past weekend. So I think this team probably is not getting near enough credit that they deserve for the kind of team that they are.”
“The reality is college football needs to be decided on the field,” Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz said in a critique of the College Football Playoff committee’s initial rankings. “There needs to be play-in games. There’s not another sport in the country that is decided — besides NCAA basketball, NCAA baseball and NCAA football — by committees. Like, decide it on the field. Just like pro sports do.”
Clemson’s Dabo Swinney on accountability in officiating this week: “Refs are people, too. It ain’t just coaches and players. And if they’re a part of the game, then by god, they ought to be a part of the game and they ought to be a part of the accountability. They ought to be a part of the consequences, not just behind some shadowy curtain. Like no, they ought to have to answer for it.”
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Bill Connelly
The stakes are officially set. We know what the College Football Playoff committee thinks of all the requisite contenders — we know that Oregon could be in trouble with another loss, that Notre Dame is in excellent shape and that the ACC probably is getting only one team in (which is all it deserves). Now it’s time to see how this all plays out.
Week 11 should be a delight. We get a battle of top-10s in Lubbock and a bigger-than-expected upset attempt in Iowa City. The SEC’s top two teams, though safe in the playoff race, face unique tests. The ACC and American Conference races might gain some clarity, and they might grow even sloppier.
What shifts will we see and where? Here’s everything you need to follow in a rather off-the-beaten-path Week 11.
The biggest game in Lubbock in 17 years
No. 7 BYU at No. 8 Texas Tech (noon, ABC)
For just the fifth time in history, a top-10 Texas Tech team will host a top-10 opponent on Saturday. The Red Raiders lost two such games back in the 1970s, but they won a pair in 2008. You probably remember at least one of them.
That’s the last time “College GameDay” was in town. It’ll be there Saturday. Hell yeah.
In this moment, with the Big Ten and SEC attempting to further distance themselves from the rest of the sport in terms of both money and power, BYU and Texas Tech in particular are trying to disrupt the party a bit. BYU was testing the boundaries of NIL possibilities right after NIL became a thing and is milking a large and monied fan base to solid effect in both football and basketball. Texas Tech, meanwhile, has the most famous NIL billionaire in the game running television commercials and openly questioning the judgment of the sport’s most powerful individuals.
Oh yeah, and both teams are awesome this season. Despite starting a true freshman quarterback, BYU is playing the most mature ball in the Big 12. The Cougars don’t always start games well, but they finish them strong, especially on the road — they ended on a 31-3 run against Iowa State and 24-7 against Colorado, and they scored late and then won in overtime at Arizona. They know that 60 minutes is a long time, they’re brilliant in the turnover, third-down and red zone departments on defense, and the offense gets both efficiency from the running game and big plays from receivers Chase Roberts and Parker Kingston. And Bear Bachmeier, the aforementioned freshman QB, is up to 18th in Total QBR, ahead of former BYU starter Jake Retzlaff (now at Tulane), among others. Since a Week 2 semi-dud against Stanford, he ranks 11th.
I wouldn’t advise leaving things ’til late against Texas Tech, however, as the Red Raiders might have put the game away by then. Their eight wins have come by an average of 34 points, and their only loss, a last-second defeat at Arizona State, came without quarterback Behren Morton, who is listed as probable for Saturday.
This is a fascinating test for Bachmeier. Inexperience can strike when it’s least desirable, and if it’s going to hit Bachmeier, it will probably be in Lubbock, facing a unique and hostile crowd and a unique and hostile defense. The Red Raiders have forced 20 turnovers (second nationally) and three-and-outs on 44% of possessions (fifth). David Bailey and Romello Height have combined for 17.5 sacks, and Jacob Rodriguez is the best linebacker in the country. They rank in the top 20 in sack rate while rarely blitzing.
Bachmeier’s supporting cast is strong, with an experienced line, Roberts and Kingston out wide and running back LJ Martin next to him in the backfield. Some freshmen might get on the field because of certain elite traits, but they’re usually forced to learn how to overcome obvious weaknesses. For Bachmeier, his elite trait is his lack of obvious weaknesses.
Bachmeier’s accuracy is perhaps merely average — as represented by CPOE (completion rate over expected) in the chart above — but his well-roundedness is startling for a first-year guy. Against an elite Utah defense, he was able to grind out success, averaging only 6.6 yards per dropback but throwing no picks and rushing nine times for 71 yards and a rugged, game-clinching 22-yard touchdown on third-and-11. But here comes an even bigger test. Meanwhile, the BYU defense will have to cope with a balanced and explosive offense featuring two high-end running backs (Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams) and a diverse receiving corps with five players between 21 and 41 receptions.
The winner of this one will head into the season’s homestretch with quite a bit of margin for error in the CFP hunt; the loser, however, will be right on the border. At 16th in SP+, BYU has what appears to be its best team since the glorious 2020 team that went 11-1 and ranked fourth. But this might be Tech’s best team ever. Four Red Raiders teams have finished in the SP+ top 10 — 1954, 2005, 2008 and 2009 (here’s your regular reminder that Mike Leach was a fantastic head coach) — but not one finished higher than eighth. Tech is currently fourth, and that’s with the ASU game dragging it down. The upside is immense, and Saturday, Lubbock will be the center of the college football universe.
Current line: Tech -10.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 9.7 | FPI projection: Tech by 2.7
A sloppy track in Iowa City
No. 9 Oregon at No. 20 Iowa (3:30 p.m., CBS)
The current weather forecast for Iowa City on Saturday afternoon is sloppy: Temperature in the low-to-mid-40s, 90% chance of rain. That’s some serious Iowa November weather, though come to think of it, it’s pretty Oregon, too, isn’t it?
Tuesday’s CFP rankings revealed some vulnerability for Dan Lanning’s Ducks. They’re awesome on paper (third in both SP+ and FPI), but they’ve played only two SP+ top-50 teams and lost to their only top-tier opponent (Indiana). One of the things that makes me uneasy about the way we discuss strength of schedule is that we seemingly treat it as a choice — Oregon chose to play a weak schedule, therefore the Ducks don’t deserve to rank as high even though they’re clearly very good. It’s not their fault preseason No. 2 Penn State face-planted after losing to the Ducks, just as it’s not their fault that Oklahoma State, a nonconference opponent scheduled years ago when the Cowboys were consistently excellent, has become one of the worst power conference teams in recent history.
Regardless, Oregon is where it is, and the Ducks have a tricky homestretch, with ranked Iowa, USC and Washington teams to come. Iowa has been underrated all season — the Hawkeyes are still somehow unranked in the AP poll despite suffering losses only in an early-season rivalry game against Iowa State (when ISU was soaring) and by five points to an Indiana team that has beaten everyone else by double digits. They’re 17th in SP+, sixth on defense, and their offense is good at all the things that Iowa always wants to be good at but very much wasn’t between 2021 and 2023: rushing (11th in rushing success rate*), penalty avoidance (fewest penalty yards), turnover avoidance (fifth-fewest turnovers) and short yardage (second in third-and-short success rate).
(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is generating 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth.)
They’re as reliant as ever on the run, but how they run is wonderfully unpredictable.
Here’s how to interpret that chart: Bigger dots mean higher frequency, and lighter dots mean higher efficiency. The dots are pretty much the same size, and the efficiency levels are solid across the board.
Now, once the Hawkeyes are behind schedule, they’re toast. But they’re averaging 2.56 points per drive; their best average in the past 20 years was 2.36 in 2008. That’s been more than enough for the typically awesome Iowa defense to take control. Ends Max Llewellyn and Ethan Hurkett are spicy pass rushers, and the secondary gets the requisite ball-hawking from corners TJ Hall and Deshaun Lee and slot corner Zach Lutmer.
Of course, Oregon hasn’t shown us many weaknesses beyond an inability to beat a thus-far unbeatable Indiana team. Quarterback Dante Moore and the offense struggled against Indiana’s elite defense but have otherwise averaged 44.3 points and 7.8 yards per play. Edge rusher Teitum Tuioti and the Oregon defense struggled against Indiana’s elite offense but have otherwise allowed just 11.1 points and 3.9 yards per play.
We haven’t gotten a nice, big upset at Kinnick Stadium in a little while. Iowa hasn’t hosted a top-10 team since 2022 (Michigan) and hasn’t beaten one at home since 2021 (Penn State). Oregon is awesome, but this should be quite the challenge. And in challenging conditions, no less.
Current line: Oregon -6.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 7.5 | FPI projection: Oregon by 5.1.
Will a top SEC team go down?
The SEC’s race isn’t as messy as the ACC’s or American’s, but we still have five teams pretty heavily involved: Per SP+, Alabama has a 33.2% title chance, followed by Texas A&M (30.1%), Georgia (16.1%), Ole Miss (11.3%) and Texas (7.8%).
The two front-runners are in excellent shape playoff-wise, but they have work to do this weekend. A&M visits Missouri — a team that had its own realistic CFP ambitions before losing quarterback Beau Pribula to injury two weeks ago — while Bama is a single-digit favorite against suddenly mysterious LSU.
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 22 Missouri (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Coaches and old-school commentators love telling you how important it is for an offense to stay on schedule. But unlike old-school views on things like fourth-down attempts or the dangers of passing, this is correct. Efficiency is vital in college football; it’s one of the reasons success rate is one of the key pieces of my SP+ ratings.
Staying on schedule might be just about all that matters in Columbia on Saturday. If we break things into standard downs (first downs, second-and-7 or less, third- or fourth-and-4 or less) and passing downs (everything else), we see why pretty quickly.
When A&M has the ball
Standard downs success rate: A&M offense first (58.2%), Mizzou defense fifth (37.7%)
Passing downs success rate: A&M offense 88th (27.5%); Mizzou defense sixth (21.5%)
A&M is elite on standard downs. The Aggies’ running game is quite efficient, and quarterback Marcel Reed averages 9.7 yards per dropback on standard downs, completing 69% of his passes at 14.4 yards per completion and scrambling for nearly 10 yards a pop too.
Reed averages only 6.4 yards per dropback on passing downs, however, while his interception rate nearly doubles and his sack rate triples. Mizzou’s defense is sixth nationally in success rate allowed, and the Tigers generate pressure on 44% of dropbacks. Reed is elusive, but if Mizzou leverages the Aggies behind schedule, they’ll make a lot of stops.
That’s good, because they’ll be giving a true freshman quarterback (Matt Zollers) his first career start against an aggressive A&M defense.
When Mizzou has the ball
Standard downs success rate: Mizzou offense 28th (51.9%), A&M defense 28th (43.2%)
Passing downs success rate: Mizzou offense 15th (37.7%), A&M defense ninth (22.1%)
A&M’s defense is vicious on passing downs. Led primarily by Missouri native Cashius Howell and Dayon Hayes, the Aggies rank second in sack rate. Nothing can rattle a freshman QB faster than constant pressure, so Mizzou has to hope that the combination of backs Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts in the running game and a quick passing game — albeit one that might be without tight end Brett Norfleet (listed as questionable) — can keep Zollers in favorable situations. He was a top-100 prospect, and he threw the ball pretty well filling in against Vanderbilt, but his passing has been mostly short and controlled.
That’s a tight radius of completions. At one point or another, Zollers will be asked to make tough throws to the sideline; if he can’t, A&M will crowd the box and make life awfully difficult.
Current line: A&M -6.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 1.2 | FPI projection: A&M by 1.4
LSU at No. 4 Alabama (7:30 p.m., ABC)
In 2022, future Heisman winner Jayden Daniels outdueled former Heisman winner Bryce Young, and LSU knocked off No. 6 Alabama in overtime. With that result, the Tigers won the SEC West in Brian Kelly’s first season in charge and reignited one of the defining rivalries of the 2010s.
Three years later, Kelly has been fired. He lost his last two Bama games by a combined 43 points, and he lost six of his last 14 games overall. His teams were never bad or even mediocre — unlike another Nick Saban-beating head coach who was recently fired (Auburn’s Hugh Freeze) — but he set the highest possible bar for himself and didn’t clear it. Interim coach Frank Wilson and the Tigers now are left looking to spoil a season or two down the stretch.
They’re still talented enough to do it. The LSU defense, fatigued from carrying a disappointing offense and suffering in the absence of star linebacker Whit Weeks, collapsed in Kelly’s final two games. But it’s still talented, and Weeks has been upgraded to questionable. The offense, now coordinated by former Florida State OC Alex Atkins, could benefit from the element of surprise, not to mention a week of rest for consistently battered quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. If the Tigers land some early haymakers, this could get weird.
Of course, at this point Bama is used to facing stiff challenges. They’ve defeated four ranked opponents, and they’re 3-0 in one-score finishes. Quarterback Ty Simpson remains a major Heisman contender, injured receiver Ryan Williams is listed as probable, and the Tide probably will be ready for a fight.
Current line: Bama -9.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 8.7 | FPI projection: Bama by 9.9
ACC contenders try to avoid potholes
After last week’s ACC chaos, SP+ currently gives six teams a fighting chance at the conference crown: Louisville (28.0%), Virginia (25.6%), Georgia Tech (16.7%), Duke (11.3%), Pitt (8.4%) and SMU (8.0%). Even Miami is still at 2.0%.
This week doesn’t give us any head-to-head matchups between these contenders, but while Duke is off gallivanting with UConn in nonconference play, Pitt is on bye and Miami and Louisville are significant favorites, two contenders face semi-interesting tests.
Wake Forest at No. 14 Virginia (7 p.m., ESPN)
Wake Forest had won three straight games before last week, but the Demon Deacons visited Florida State, absorbed all of the Seminoles’ bad mojo and laid a spectacular egg in a 42-7 loss. Every play seemed to feature miscommunication or a massive individual error.
Any remaining game in which that version of Wake shows up is an automatic loss, but the pre-FSU version could threaten a Virginia team that has flirted with disaster for weeks. The Cavaliers are 8-1 and the vice-favorite in the ACC, but they’ve won their past five games by an average of 4.8 points, three in overtime. They’re just 43rd in SP+.
Wake’s all-or-nothing offense has been mostly nothing of late, scoring 20 combined points in two games, but UVA’s secondary is vulnerable to “alls,” and receiver Chris Barnes is a solid downfield threat. You’re watching this for the other matchup, though. UVA’s offense and Wake’s defense are fun and explosive. The Hoos’ offensive line could struggle with an active Wake front — the Deacs are seventh in stuff rate and third in pressure rate — but backs J’Mari Taylor and Harrison Waylee are excellent after contact, and quarterback Chandler Morris is one of the best in the nation at escaping pressure and getting rid of the ball. UVA is only 53rd in success rate but bumps up to 16th on third downs. Morris has been a godsend, and he and the Hoos tend to come through late.
Current line: UVA -6.5 | SP+ projection: UVA by 9.9 | FPI projection: UVA by 8.6
SMU at Boston College (noon, ACCN)
SMU just worked its way back into the ACC race with its upset of Miami; surely the Mustangs wouldn’t turn around and blow it against 1-8 Boston College, right? Probably not. But it’s worth noting that BC has overachieved against SP+ projections by at least 12 points in back-to-back games, giving both Louisville and Notre Dame more resistance than expected. This is a long trip and an early kick, and if SMU doesn’t bring a certain level of energy, things could get awkward.
SMU’s offense has struggled at times, but the defense has surged despite a growing injury list. BC’s Bill O’Brien has lost faith in quarterback Dylan Lonergan, and though backup Grayson James usually offers more with his legs, he’s even less efficient passing, and he has been battling a hip pointer.
This is a just-in-case watch: BC could make it interesting, but it’s not incredibly likely.
Current line: SMU -11.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 16.2 | FPI projection: SMU by 11.0
The Group of 5 game of the week
Tulane at Memphis (Friday, 9 p.m., ESPN)
While one-loss James Madison and San Diego State lurk, the American Conference champ will be very well positioned to snag the Group of 5’s guaranteed CFP slot. There are currently six American teams with one conference loss; Memphis is one of them, as are each of the Tigers’ last three opponents — Tulane, East Carolina and Navy. This is a tricky homestretch, especially with quarterback Brendon Lewis‘ status uncertain after he suffered another lower-body injury against Rice. Backup AJ Hill was good late against UAB after Lewis exited, but this isn’t a great time to deal with QB uncertainty. Without accounting for Lewis, SP+ still gives the Tigers only a 32% chance of winning these next three games.
But Tulane’s recent form has to give the Tigers hope. After close calls a couple of times, the Green Wave finally found it with last week’s blowout loss at UTSA. After being as high as 38th in SP+, they’ve fallen to 66th, and while Jake Retzlaff and the passing game remain strong, the run game is inconsistent and the defense was lit up for 48 points and 7.6 yards per play in San Antonio.
Retzlaff should be able to find some success, but Tulane’s poor defense will have to make stops at some point, and Memphis’ skill corps is deep and diverse, with Sutton Smith and Greg Desrosiers Jr. in the backfield and big-play receivers Cortez Braham Jr. and Jamari Hawkins out wide.
Current line: Memphis -3.5 (down from -6.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Memphis by 13.3 | FPI projection: Memphis by 6.2
Week 11 chaos superfecta
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. And thanks to NC State’s win over Georgia Tech, we jumped back up to .500 (5-5) last week.
In the immortal words of Lou Brown in “Major League,” if we win today, it’s called two in a row. If we win again tomorrow, it’s called a winning streak. SP+ says there’s only a 42% chance that Virginia (73% win probability against Wake Forest), James Madison (80% against Marshall), SMU (84% against Boston College) and USC (86% against Northwestern) all win. Let’s take down a playoff (or at least ACC title) contender.
Week 11 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Northwestern at No. 19 USC (9 p.m., Fox). USC’s playoff hopes might have remained alive because of an injury; the Trojans were trailing Nebraska 14-6 when Dylan Raiola went down and they rallied to a 21-17 win. Now they host a Northwestern team that lost to Raiola’s Huskers by seven the week before. Northwestern games feature no big plays for either team, and the Wildcats are built to muck this one up for a bit.
Current line: USC -14.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 17.5 | FPI projection: USC by 17.5
Early Saturday
No. 5 Georgia at Mississippi State (noon, ESPN). Mississippi State finally ended a two-year SEC losing streak and has been playing competitive ball with no elite traits but few grave weaknesses. Since this is a Georgia game, though, we can probably just stop the analysis there and assume that the Bulldogs trail late and win anyway. It’s a thing they like to do.
Current line: UGA -9.5 (up from -7.5) | SP+ projection: UGA by 7.1 | FPI projection: UGA by 8.7
No. 2 Indiana at Penn State (noon, Fox). Penn State became only the second team to hit 14 points against Ohio State last week, but the Nittany Lions’ defense succumbed to the Buckeyes’ big plays. Now comes another top-two opponent; outside of two SP+ top-20 opponents, Indiana has beaten mortals by an average of 53-9, and PSU looks awfully mortal. Will it matter that IU’s injury list is growing?
Current line: Indiana -14.5 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 12.0 | FPI projection: Indiana by 10.9
No. 1 Ohio State at Purdue (noon, BTN). Purdue has massively improved this season, but thanks to three recent one-score losses, the Boilermakers have lost seven in a row and are going to be significant underdogs in each of their last three games. Ohio State actually had to get a little aggressive against Penn State but looked great doing so. That probably says bad things about this matchup.
Current line: Buckeyes -30.5 (up from -28.5) | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 29.3 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 29.1
James Madison at Marshall (noon, ESPN2). JMU has shifted into fifth gear of late, scoring 115 points and gaining 1,135 yards in its past two games to charge up the CFP contenders list. But the Dukes’ defense has grown a bit leaky, and Marshall has averaged 41 points over its past six games. Quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson and the Herd are capable of throwing JMU’s playoff hopes for a loop.
Current line: JMU -13.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 13.4 | FPI projection: JMU by 8.6
Southern Miss at Arkansas State (noon, ESPNU). Remember last year, when Charles Huff won the Sun Belt title with Marshall, then took the Southern Miss job and took a quarter of his roster with him? Well, his Golden Thundering Herd Eagles have won four games in a row to move to 6-2. ASU has also won four in a row, and the winner of this one will be a huge favorite to win the Sun Belt West.
Current line: USM -4.5 | SP+ projection: USM by 6.5 | FPI projection: USM by 2.8
Saturday afternoon
Auburn at No. 16 Vanderbilt (4 p.m., SECN). LSU isn’t the only SEC team hoping for an interim boost, as DJ Durkin takes over at Auburn. The Tigers still defend beautifully — 11th in defensive SP+ — but Vandy is averaging 23.3 points against top-15 defenses. Can Auburn score that much against any defense with a pulse at this point?
Current line: Vandy -6.5 | SP+ projection: Vandy by 8.7 | FPI projection: Vandy by 5.7
Iowa State at TCU (3:30 p.m., Fox). Iowa State has lost four straight, but three were by one score and the other was tied in the fourth quarter. TCU has won two straight to get to 6-2, but both were also by one score. The records don’t tell the whole tale here, but TCU’s run defense will probably render ISU inefficient, and quarterback Josh Hoover should find success against a tattered Cyclones secondary.
Current line: TCU -6.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 4.0 | FPI projection: TCU by 4.3
Kansas at Arizona (3:30 p.m., ESPN2). Both of these teams rebounded from 1-3 stretches with comfortable wins last week, and both are a win from bowl eligibility after missing out last season. This one should be decided when KU’s Jalon Daniels drops back to pass: He remains efficient, but Arizona ranks fifth nationally in yards allowed per dropback. Fun matchup there.
Current line: Arizona -5.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 8.2 | FPI projection: Arizona by 3.5
No. 23 Washington at Wisconsin (4:30 p.m., BTN). Wisconsin plays its sixth game against an SP+ top-25 team, with two more to come. Washington puts up huge points against any less-than-elite defense, and Wisconsin isn’t elite at a damn thing. The Huskies are 6-2 and have a good chance to be 9-2 with win-and-you’re-in playoff hopes when Oregon visits for Rivalry Week.
Current line: Huskies -10.5 | SP+ projection: Huskies by 18.4 | FPI projection: Huskies by 6.2
Stanford at North Carolina (4:30 p.m., The CW). UNC is overachieving against SP+ projections by two touchdowns per game over the past three. The key to the Heels’ turnaround? A defense that has turned good against the run and fantastic against the pass. Pass rusher Melkart Abou Jaoude is smoking hot and will probably get to know Stanford quarterback Ben Gulbranson awfully well.
Current line: UNC -7.5 | SP+ projection: UNC by 9.5 | FPI projection: UNC by 3.0
Duke at UConn (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). UConn has played ACC teams as if it were auditioning for a spot in the league, walloping BC and going to overtime with pre-collapse Syracuse. The Huskies make a ton of big plays, and Duke gives up just as many, so for the Blue Devils to avoid a nonconference upset they’ll have to take full advantage of a shaky UConn run front and a soft pass defense.
Current line: Duke -9.5 | SP+ projection: Duke by 0.8 | FPI projection: Duke by 6.1
Syracuse at No. 18 Miami (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Miami has underachieved its offensive projections by 6.2 points per game over its past five; a total lack of big plays has removed the possibility of easy points, and Carson Beck‘s interception-prone tendencies (six in his past three games) have become a problem. Will any of this matter Saturday? Nope. Syracuse’s offense is 12 steps beyond terrible at this point.
Current line: Miami -28.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 27.6 | FPI projection: Miami by 26.8
Saturday evening
Florida State at Clemson (7 p.m., ACCN). Under Mike Norvell, FSU has struggled to course-correct when the vibes go south, but beating a solid Wake team by 35 might have offered quite the correction. Will there be a correction for Clemson this season? The odds of the 3-5 Tigers reaching even 6-6 this season are down to 39%, per SP+, and that number would plummet with a fifth home loss. Fifth!
Current line: Clemson -2.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 2.9 | FPI projection: FSU by 0.8
California at No. 15 Louisville (7 p.m., ESPN2). Cal has done a nice job of taking advantage of a weak schedule, but the Golden Bears have lost to three SP+ top-50 opponents by an average of 37-14, and at 23rd in SP+, Louisville is by far the best team they’ve faced. That probably doesn’t bode well, though with star back Isaac Brown injured, the Cardinals might not take full advantage of Cal’s dreadful run defense.
Current line: Louisville -20.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 20.1 | FPI projection: Louisville by 18.6
Navy at No. 10 Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., NBC). Notre Dame has won its past six games by an average score of 39-15. The Irish meet an equally torrid Pitt next week, but first they must handle an all-or-nothing Navy team that moves the ball as well as ever but ranks 103rd in points allowed per drive. You can run into trouble against the Midshipmen, but it’s hard to shake the memory of last year’s 51-14 blowout.
Current line: Irish -25.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 17.7 | FPI projection: Irish by 27.2
Late Saturday
Nebraska at UCLA (9 p.m., Fox). I’ve almost never seen a disagreement between spread and SP+ projection as big as the one below. Dylan Raiola’s season-ending injury is the reason for the variance, but exactly how many points is a starting quarterback worth? Freshman backup TJ Lateef was a deer in headlights filling in against USC, but if he’s merely composed, Nebraska’s defense is good enough to make this a dogfight.
Current line: UCLA -2.5 | SP+ projection: Nebraska by 13.1 | FPI projection: Nebraska by 4.7
San Diego State at Hawai’i (11 p.m., MW App). SDSU keeps creeping along as a playoff sleeper, having won six straight games by an average of 29-7. The Aztecs are second nationally in both points allowed per drive and yards allowed per play, but when Micah Alejado is dealing, Hawaii is a handful. When Alejado throws for 300-plus, the Rainbow Warriors score 30-plus.
Current line: SDSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 10.9 | FPI projection: SDSU by 3.4
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
FCS: No. 1 North Dakota State at No. 15 North Dakota (2 p.m., ESPN+). We have a pair of big in-state rivalry games in the Missouri Valley this week. Reeling South Dakota State desperately needs a win at No. 25 South Dakota, but one state up, North Dakota is looking for just its second Nickel Trophy win over NDSU in 20 years. (Granted, the rivals have played only six times in that span.) An upset would supercharge the Fighting Hawks’ playoff résumé, but we’ll see if any FCS team is capable of beating an absurdly dominant North Dakota State team that has let only one opponent stay within 17 points.
SP+ projection: NDSU by 12.5
Division III: No. 10 Wisconsin-La Crosse at No. 8 Wisconsin-River Falls (2 p.m., WIAC Network). First, the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference had a six-way tie at 2-1. Then four 3-1 teams paired off last week. And now, last week’s winners, both 4-1, pair off again. It has been a logistically perfect WIAC race, and now we get an upstart — UWRF, which hasn’t won an outright conference title in 40 years and destroyed longtime heavyweight Wisconsin-Whitewater last week — hosting the 2023 WIAC champ with two games to play.
SP+ projection: UWRF by 6.0
FCS: No. 14 Southeastern Louisiana at No. 18 Lamar (4 p.m., ESPN+). Consider me surprised that Southeastern Louisiana is only 14th in the FCS polls. Dual quarterbacks Carson Camp (better passer) and Kyle Lowe (better runner) and the Lions have lost only to Louisiana Tech and LSU and have beaten seven FCS opponents by an average of 47-12. Lamar is 7-2 itself and does something rare in the Southland: defend. But SLU is the favorite for a reason.
SP+ projection: SLU by 9.0
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