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Businesses have cut jobs at the fastest pace in almost four years, according to a closely-watched Bank of England survey which also paints a worrying picture for employment and wage growth ahead.

Its Decision Maker Panel (DMP) data, taken from chief financial officers across 2,000 companies, showed employment levels over the three months to August were 0.5% lower than in the same period a year earlier.

It amounted to the worst decline since autumn 2021 as firms grappled with the implementation of budget measures in the spring that raised their national insurance contributions and minimum wage levels, along with business rates for many.

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The start of April also witnessed the escalation in Donald Trump’s global trade war which further damaged sentiment, especially among exporters to the United States.

The survey showed no improvement in hiring intentions in the tough economy, with companies expecting to reduce employment levels by 0.5% over the coming year.

That was the weakest outlook projection since October 2020.

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At the same time, the panel also showed that participants planned to raise their own prices by 3.8% over the next 12 months. That is in line with the current rate of inflation.

The news on wages was no better as the central forecast was for an average rise of 3.6% – down from the 4.6% seen over the past 12 months.

If borne out, it would mean private sector wages rising below the rate of inflation – erasing household and business spending power.

The Bank of England has been relying on data such as the DMP amid a lack of confidence in official employment figures produced by the Office for National Statistics due to low response rates.

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August: Tax rises playing ’50:50′ role in rising inflation

Bank governor Andrew Bailey told a committee of MPs on Wednesday that he was now less sure over the pace of interest rate cuts ahead owing to stubborn inflation in the economy.

The consumer prices index measure is expected to peak at 4% next month – double the Bank’s target rate – from the current level.

Higher interest rates only add to company costs and make them less likely to borrow for investment purposes.

At the same time, employers are fearful that the coming budget, set for late November, may contain no relief.

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Why aren’t we hearing about the budget ‘black hole’?

Sky News revealed on Thursday how the head of the banking sector’s main lobby group had written to the chancellor to warn that any additional levy on bank profits, as suggested by a think-tank last week, would only damage her search for growth.

Rachel Reeves is believed to be facing a black hole in the public finances amounting to £20bn-£40bn.

Tax rises are believed to be inevitable, given her commitment to fiscal rules concerning borrowing by the end of the parliament.

Heightened costs associated with servicing such debts following recent bond sell-offs across Western economies have made more borrowing even less palatable.

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Why did UK debt just get more expensive?

Ms Reeves is expected to raise some form of wealth tax, while other speculation has included a shake-up of council tax.

She has consistently committed not to target working people but the Bank of England data, and official ONS figures, would suggest that businesses have responded to 2024 budget measures by cutting jobs since April, with hospitality and retail among the worst hit.

Commenting on the data, Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: “The DMP survey shows stubborn wage and price pressures despite falling employment, continuing to suggest that structural economic changes and supply weakness are keeping inflation high.

“The MPC [monetary policy committee of the Bank of England] will have to be cautious, so we remain comfortable assuming no more rate cuts this year.”

“That said, the increasing signs of labour market weakness suggest dovish risks,” he concluded.

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M&S reveals cost of cyber attack as profit almost wiped out

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M&S reveals cost of cyber attack as profit almost wiped out

The cyber attack on high street department store Marks and Spencer is expected to directly cost roughly £136m.

The figure is only the cost of immediate incident systems response and recovery, as well as specialist legal and professional services support.

Combined with a loss in sales, as the retailer’s online systems were out of action from Easter into the summer, statutory profit before tax at the business has been nearly wiped out for the first half of the year.

This profit measure dropped from £391.9m last year to £3.4m this year. Statutory profit before tax is the official profit figure reported in a company’s financial statements before it paid tax, used for tax and legal purposes.

About £100m is being claimed back in insurance for the cyberattack, M&S said in its market update.

Using a different profit measure – the M&S group’s adjusted profit before tax – the figure is more than half that of a year earlier, down from £413m to £184m.

Sales were hit as online shopping was unavailable from the April attack date until June. Some shelves were also empty in the days after the attack.

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Ransomware hackers broke into M&S systems by tricking employees at a third-party contractor.

The attack was just one of a series that struck major British businesses.

The Co-Op, Jaguar Land Rover and Harrods all had operations interrupted by cyber criminals.

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Chancellor Rachel Reeves blames other people’s mistakes for her predicament but she bears some responsibility

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Chancellor Rachel Reeves blames other people's mistakes for her predicament but she bears some responsibility

To say this wasn’t the plan is an understatement.

When Rachel Reeves said last year (and many times since) that she had no intention of coming back to the British people with yet more tax rises, she meant it.

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But now the question ahead of the budget later this month is not so much whether taxes will rise, but which taxes, and by how much? Indeed, there’s growing speculation that the chancellor will be forced to break her manifesto pledge not to raise the rates of income tax, national insurance or VAT.

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Chancellor questioned by Sky News

Her argument, made in her news conference on Tuesday morning, is that she is in this position in large part because of other people’s mistakes, primarily those of the Conservative Party.

But while it’s certainly true that a significant chunk of the likely downgrade to her fiscal position reflects the fact that the “trend growth rate” – the average speed of productivity growth – has dropped in recent years due to all sorts of issues, including Brexit, COVID-19 and the state of the labour market, she certainly bears some responsibility.

A problem that is some of her own making

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First off, she established the fiscal rules against which she is being marked by the Office for Budget Responsibility.

Second, she decided to leave herself only a wafer-thin margin against those rules.

Third, even if it weren’t for the OBR’s productivity downgrade, it’s quite likely the chancellor would have broken those fiscal rules, due to the various U-turns by the government on welfare reforms, winter fuel, and extra giveaways they haven’t yet provided the funding for, such as reversing the two-child benefit cap.

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Now, at this stage, no one, save for the Treasury and the Office for Budget Responsibility, really knows the scale of the task facing the chancellor. And in the coming weeks, those numbers could change significantly.

But it’s becoming increasingly clear, from the political signalling if nothing else, that the government is rolling the pitch for bad news later this month.

Indeed, for all that this government pledged to bring an end to austerity, a combination of higher taxes and lower spending will be highly unpopular, not to mention deeply controversial. And while the chancellor will seek to blame her predecessors, it remains to be seen whether the public will be entirely convinced.

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Post Office hero Bates lands seven-figure Horizon payout

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Post Office hero Bates lands seven-figure Horizon payout

Sir Alan Bates has reached a seven-figure deal to settle his claim over the Post Office Horizon scandal, more than 20 years after he began campaigning over what turned into one of Britain’s biggest miscarriages of justice.

Sky News has learnt that the government has agreed a deal with the former sub-postmaster after handing him what he described as a “take it or leave it” offer during the spring.

Sir Alan has previously said publicly that that proposal amounted to 49.2% of his original claim.

One source suggested that his final settlement may have been worth between £4m and £5m, implying that Sir Alan’s claim could have been in the region of £10m, although those figures could not be corroborated on Tuesday morning.

A government spokesperson said: “We pay tribute to Sir Alan Bates for his long record of campaigning on behalf of victims and have now paid out over £1.2bn to more than 9,000 victims.

“We can confirm that Sir Alan’s claim has reached the end of the scheme process and been settled.”

Sky News has attempted to reach Sir Alan for comment about the settlement of his claim.

Read more:
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Who are the key figures in the scandal?

Victim died days before compensation letter arrived

Sir Alan led efforts over many years to prove that the Horizon software system supplied by Fujitsu, the Japanese technology company, was faulty.

Hundreds of sub-postmasters were wrongly prosecuted between 1999 and 2015, with scores of people either ending their own lives or making attempts to do so.

However, it was only after ITV turned their fight for justice into a drama, Mr Bates Vs The Post Office, that the government accelerated plans to deliver redress to victims.

Even so, the compensation scheme set up to administer redress has been mired in controversy.

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Will Post Office victims be cleared?

Writing in The Sunday Times in May, Sir Alan described the process as “quasi-kangaroo courts in which the Department for Business and Trade sits in judgement of the claims and alters the goalposts as and when it chooses”.

“Claims are, and have been, knocked back on the basis that legally you would not be able to make them, or that the parameters of the scheme do not extend to certain items.”

Sir Alan had previously been made compensation offers worth just one-sixth of his claim – which he had labelled “derisory”, with a second offer amounting to a third of the sum he was seeking.

Sir Ross Cranston, a former High Court judge, adjudicates on cases where a claimant disputes a compensation offer from the government and then objects to the results of a review by an independent panel.

In 2017, Sir Alan and a group of 555 sub-postmasters sued the Post Office in the High Court, ultimately winning a £58m settlement.

However, swingeing legal fees left the group with just £12m of that sum, prompting ministers to establish a separate compensation scheme amid a growing outcry.

A significant number of other sub-postmasters have also complained publicly about the pace, and outcome, of the compensation process.

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‘This waiting is just unbearable’

The first volume of Sir Wyn Williams’s public inquiry into the Horizon scandal was published in July, and concluded that at least 13 people may have taken their own lives after being accused of wrongdoing, even though the Post Office and Fujitsu knew the Horizon system was flawed.

The miscarriage of justice left the Post Office’s reputation, and that of former bosses including chief executive Paula Vennells, in tatters.

A subsequent corporate governance mess under the last government further dragged the Post Office’s name through the mud, with the then chief executive, Nick Read, accused of being absorbed by his own remuneration.

In recent months, the government has outlined a further redress scheme aimed at compensating victims of the Capture accounting software which was in use at Post Offices between 1992 and 2000.

Since then, a new management team has been appointed and has set the objective of boosting postmasters’ pay and overhauling technology systems to enable Post Office branches to offer a broader range of services.

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