How much will Tucker get? Who could sign Schwarber? Passan’s early MLB free agency intel
Every Major League Baseball offseason comes with its own unique brand of intrigue, and this year it is concern that the fear of a lockout and potentially prolonged labor stoppage in 2026-27 could bleed into the free agent market a year early.
In the winter of 2020-21, the last offseason that preceded a collective bargaining agreement expiration, free agent spending plunged precipitously, alarming players. It was a down class, sure, and COVID-related concerns remained palpable, yes, but players nevertheless saw it as a reminder that labor issues can infiltrate all areas of all markets at all times.
The class of 2025-26 is perfectly OK. It has a no-doubt multi-hundred-million-dollar anchor in Kyle Tucker, an MVP-caliber slugger in Kyle Schwarber, a do-everything infielder in Alex Bregman (if he opts out), a number of interesting starting pitchers (without an obvious headliner), solid relief arms and plenty of depth.
Does the group have enough to reach the $3 billion spending threshold that has been exceeded in each of the past four winters, though? The answer to that could very well depend on three names unfamiliar to most domestic baseball fans.
The Japanese revolution in MLB is not slowing down, and another impressive group is expected to come stateside for the 2026 season. Right-hander Tatsuya Imai and a pair of slugging third basemen — Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto — hope to play in MLB, according to sources, though their doing so depends on their Nippon Professional Baseball teams’ willingness to enter them into the posting system that serves as a conduit to the big leagues for those NPB players who have yet to play the nine years necessary for international free agency.
Imai, 27, is the most anonymous of the group — and, according to scouts who have watched him pitch this year, perhaps the most intriguing. His talent belies his wispy 5-foot-11, 154-pound frame. He is the hardest-throwing starter in Japan, with a fastball that sits at 95 mph and tops out at 99. With a vicious slider, a changeup, a splitter, a curveball and a sinker he picked up this season, Imai has the sort of pitch mix that teams covet.
Imai’s numbers this year are silly: a 1.50 ERA with 159 strikeouts, 37 walks and just four home runs allowed in 143⅔ innings pitched. And although the dead ball in Japan certainly factors in, the quality of Imai’s stuff supports his otherworldliness. The big league success of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga — each an inch shorter than Imai — has also helped allay fears of diminutive starters who have pervaded baseball for decades. Upward of 20 major league scouts were at his start Tuesday, when he punched out 10 in a two-hit shutout.
With Imai flashing excellent control for the first time in his career, it would make sense for the Saitama Seibu Lions to reap a hefty posting fee by allowing him to come to the majors now. Imai won’t get the $325 million the Dodgers gave Yamamoto, but the combination of his age, performance and premier offerings have front office officials offering gaudy predictions. One suggested Imai could get upward of $200 million, though others balked at that number. A second source said he thinks Imai will receive a $150 million contract. Another said something like Patrick Corbin‘s 2018 contract with the Washington Nationals — six years, $140 million. The lowest number, among the dozen officials and scouts surveyed, was $80 million, which, with the desire for starting pitching and the number of years Imai should get because he’ll be the youngest one on the market, feels light.
The markets for Murakami and Okamoto aren’t quite as defined. Murakami wanted to come to MLB last year but was not 25 years old and thus would have been subject to signing as an international amateur free agent, with a ceiling of around a $10 million payday. Now 25, he will likely be posted by the Yakult Swallows and has been scouted in person this season by New York Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns and San Diego Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, the latter of whom saw Murakami whack three home runs for the Swallows on Saturday (and was later at Imai’s gem, too).
In limited playing time this season due to injury, the 6-foot-2, 213-pound Murakami has displayed his prodigious left-handed power. In a league where there’s a home run every 60 plate appearances, Murakami has hit 15 in 138 — one every 9.2 times up. Three years ago, Murakami smashed 56 homers, surpassing Sadaharu Oh’s single-season home run record that had stood since 1964. For all the questions about Murakami’s game — he strikes out too much and he might need to shift to first base or a corner outfield spot — the power is transoceanic.
Should Murakami continue his late-season power surge, the ceiling on his deal is even higher than Imai’s. The last MLB player to reach free agency at 25 was Alex Rodriguez. Age matters significantly, and the prospect of getting any player’s age 26 to 29 seasons is tantalizing — particularly one of Murakami’s caliber.
The 29-year-old Okamoto has been NPB’s most consistent power hitter since joining the Yomiuri Giants full-time in 2018. While a left elbow injury sustained in a collision playing first base — where, like Murakami, he could wind up — sidelined him for 3½ months, Okamoto is leading NPB with a .314 batting average with nearly as many walks (21) as strikeouts (23) and 11 home runs in 201 plate appearances. He is regarded by evaluators as the biggest question mark to make the leap, and he’s in line for a shorter-term deal than the others, but a contract for $50 million-plus is plenty realistic, especially with a September that proves his elbow healed.
Here are 10 other storylines to follow heading into the winter:
1. How much does Kyle Tucker get?
Tucker’s roller-coaster season has whipsawed predictions of his ultimate contract all over the place. Coming into the season, Tucker, who will be 29 in January, looked like a $350-400 million player because of his incredible consistency and all-around production. When Tucker is healthy, he hits, runs and fields at an exceptional level — a rare combination of skills. When you added in a hot start (his OPS was .931 at the end of June), matching Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $500 million deal didn’t look unreasonable.
Then came July. Tucker disappeared. He was trying to play through a broken finger, and in his first 26 games after the All-Star break, his OPS was .572 — lower than his slugging percentage alone last season. The Cubs gave Tucker three games off, and the breather did him some good. Even with that bad stretch, only once in his career has he posted an OPS+ higher than this season, and that was last year, when he missed half the season.
Tucker’s best comparable might be Mookie Betts, not because of the similarities of their games but rather the level at which they produce while maintaining minuscule strikeout rates. Few players are as good at any of the three facets of the game as Tucker, let alone all three. Betts is the most obvious, and he signed a 12-year, $365 million deal that started in his age-28 season.
So, yeah, the number is going to be big — likely in the $400 million range. The Philadelphia Phillies could desperately use a big corner outfield bat, particularly if the next player on this list takes his talents elsewhere. The San Francisco Giants need a complement to Rafael Devers in the middle of the lineup. Others, including the Cubs, will be in the mix. The market will find Tucker, as it eventually does with the best players in every class.
2. What will teams pay for a DH?
Kyle Schwarber will begin next season as a 33-year-old designated hitter, which is not the sort of résumé that often — ever, actually — leads to a free agent windfall. To which Phillies fans, in unison, would reply: He’s different.
And they’re right. Schwarber is. He leads the National League in home runs and RBIs. He’s third in MLB in weighted on-base average behind Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, his two compatriots atop pretty much every measurable offensive category that matters. He plays every day — literally all 139 of the Phillies’ games — and in late and close situations this year is OPSing 1.244, nearly 100 points higher than the next-best hitter, Ohtani. Beyond that, Schwarber is regarded as the stickiest of glue guys, a font of knowledge whose interpersonal acuity makes him invaluable in a clubhouse.
Because of all he brings, Schwarber is going to get paid. Like, paid paid. Teams will scoff because of the age, the strikeouts, the positional inflexibility. But Schwarber’s total package will ultimately push some of them off such concerns and trigger a bidding war. If he wants, he can get at least four years. The salary, at that term, should be at least $30 million a year. And although remaining in Philadelphia makes the most sense, enough teams have holes at DH — looking at you, Texas, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston, Detroit and Cincinnati — that no amount of labor unrest will cause Schwarber’s market to dry up.
3. Does Alex Bregman stay or go?
Bregman signed a three-year, $120 million contract with the Boston Red Sox on the eve of spring training, and the fit has been exceptional. Bregman has taken over the Red Sox’s clubhouse and become their unquestioned leader: a baseball rat whose wisdom is exceeded by his willingness to help his teammates find the best versions of themselves. It’s rare to find a player who has such a wide base of knowledge and the ability to teach it, too.
Because his deal included opt-outs after each of the first two seasons, Bregman could be playing elsewhere in 2026. Barring an injury or catastrophic slump, he will opt out and join Tucker and Schwarber in a clear top tier among this winter’s free agents.
Boston recognizes what it would be losing were Bregman to embark elsewhere. The excellent at-bats. The glove at third base. The relationships with Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell he forged during spring training. The attitude. The focus. The feeling that in this next incarnation of the Red Sox, he belongs somewhere in the middle.
Complicating matters for the Red Sox, though, are the teams in need of better production at third that might be willing to spend for what Bregman provides. The Phillies. The Yankees. The Tigers. And it will take more than three years this time even though he’ll be going into his age-32 season. After one of the more lucrative pillow contracts ever, Bregman is bound to get the five-year-plus deal at an average annual value of $35 million-plus that eluded him last winter.
4. Who else will choose to be a free agent?
Here is a baker’s dozen decisions players must make within five days of the end of the World Series and the early lean on them:
Pete Alonso, Mets, first baseman: This one’s a no-brainer. Alonso got $30 million to play this year and will forgo $24 million next year after his fourth career 30-homer, 100-RBI season.
Will he opt out: Yes.
Edwin Diaz, Mets, closer: Díaz has two years and $37 million left on his deal, but with a 1.87 ERA and 4.5-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, he’s headed for free agency, barring the Mets doing what they did three years ago when they re-signed him before he hit the open market.
Will he opt out: Yes, unless he re-ups first.
Cody Bellinger, Yankees, outfielder: At 30, Bellinger will be one of the best bats on the market when he turns down his $25 million player option (which includes a $5 million buyout). He’s on pace to put up his most home runs and RBIs since his 2019 NL MVP campaign and will seek nine figures this winter.
Will he opt out: Yes.
Robert Suarez, Padres, closer: The 34-year-old right-hander is not going to get the sort of long-term contract Díaz receives but looking for greater riches than the two years and $16 million he’s due on his current deal makes plenty of sense.
Will he opt out: Yes.
Shane Bieber, Blue Jays, right-handed starter: Being traded to Toronto allowed Bieber a hall pass from the qualifying offer, which is enough to take his $4 million buyout and turn down a $16 million option — provided he remains healthy for the rest of the season.
Will he opt out: Yes.
Jack Flaherty, Tigers, right-handed starter: While Flaherty’s 4.74 ERA is unsightly, he has struck out 169 in 142⅓ innings, enough for him to consider turning down $20 million and seeking a greater guarantee in free agency.
Will he opt out: Yes.
Trevor Story, Red Sox, shortstop: The lack of shortstop depth in the class makes it tempting, but the combination of what Story is owed (two years, $55 million) and his age (33 next year) is too risky to give up, even after a strong comeback season.
Will he opt out: No — probably.
Tyler O’Neill, Orioles, outfielder: In his first year with Baltimore, O’Neill has played 43 games and put up precisely 0.0 wins above replacement. With two years and $33 million left on his deal, this is an easy decision.
Will he opt out: No.
Joc Pederson, Rangers, DH: Regardless of his recent surge, Pederson won’t find $18.5 million anywhere on the free agent market.
Will he opt out: No.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Diamondbacks, outfielder: Even before tearing an ACL on Monday, Gurriel was not declining his $18 million player option.
Will he opt out: No.
Ha-Seong Kim, Braves, shortstop: The Braves claimed Kim off waivers from the Rays earlier this week and, in the process, might have solved their short-term shortstop problem. As good as Kim can be when healthy, he wasn’t this year, and picking up a $16 million player option before hitting free agency again makes the most sense.
Will he opt out: No.
Frankie Montas, Mets, right-handed starter: Montas will miss the rest of this year — and perhaps all of next year — after tearing his ulnar collateral ligament. He will make $17 million rehabbing.
Will he opt out: No.
A.J. Minter, Mets, left-handed reliever: Minter threw 11 innings before a season-ending lat injury. And as good as those 11 innings were, they weren’t good enough to pass up $11 million for next season.
Will he opt out: No.
5. What about the players with club options?
Teams love club options. And this list shows why. More often than not, the options — especially for top players — wound up getting exercised.
Likely to be picked up by the team:
Shota Imanaga, Cubs, three years, $57 million
Luis Robert Jr., White Sox, $20 million
Chris Sale, Braves, $18 million
Salvador Perez, Royals, $13.5 million
Brandon Lowe, Rays, $11.5 million
Max Muncy, Dodgers, $10 million
Jose Alvarado, Phillies, $9 million
Freddy Peralta, Brewers, $8 million
Ozzie Albies, Braves, $7 million
Pete Fairbanks, Rays, $7 million
Pierce Johnson, Braves, $7 million
Ramon Laureano, Padres, $6.5 million
Andrew Muñoz, Mariners, $6 million
Tyler Kinley, Braves, $5 million
Tim Hill, Yankees, $3 million
Borderline:
Colin Rea, Cubs, $6 million
Brent Suter, Reds, $3 million
Unlikely to be picked up:
Andrew Kittredge, Cubs, $9 million
Scott Barlow, Reds, $6.5 million
John Means, Guardians, $6 million
Kyle Hart, Padres, $5 million
Jonathan Loaisiga, Yankees, $5 million
Tom Murphy, Giants, $4 million
Jose Urquidy, Tigers, $4 million
6. Which starting pitchers are going to get paid?
It begins with Framber Valdez, who, since he joined Houston’s rotation full time in 2020, holds the following ranks among the 61 pitchers who averaged at least 100 innings a season:
Wins: 1st
Ground ball rate: 1st
Home run rate: 2nd
Innings pitched: 5th
ERA: 8th
FIP: 10th
The incident Tuesday with catcher César Salazar — in which Valdez hit the rookie in the chest with a 93 mph sinker in what both later blamed miscommunication of the pitch called — did not go unnoticed by front offices. Multiple officials noted that when pitchers and catchers get crossed up, the pitcher typically looks at the catcher and expresses concern. As Salazar glared toward the mound, wondering what had happened, Valdez’s back was turned.
It is also one data point, and while such an event can burrow its way into front offices’ minds, Valdez’s stuff is so good, his numbers so consistent — his highest full-season ERA is 3.45, his lowest 2.82 — and his playoff résumé so long, even at 32 he’ll find multiple suitors willing to offer nine figures.
The other starting pitcher options include:
Dylan Cease, Padres, right-hander: The stuff remains elite, and front offices adore him despite a 4.71 ERA. He’ll be 30 going into next season and is likely to be saddled with a qualifying offer, so he’s a candidate for a shorter-term deal with multiple opt-outs unless a team falls in love and hands him a bag.
Michael King, Padres, right-hander: After an injury-riddled season, all it would take is a handful of good starts in September for King to remind teams he was the best-performing pitcher of the bunch over the past two years when he was healthy.
Ranger Suárez, Phillies, left-hander: Velocity excepted, Suárez is good at everything. He throws six pitches, has cut his walk rate to a career low, strikes out hitters, is on pace for a career high in innings and, at 30, in a market with a paucity of lefties, is primed to cash in.
Merrill Kelly, Rangers, right-hander: It’s not powerful, but Kelly’s game is pretty. The pitch mix, the command — it all has allowed him the opportunity, at 37 in October, to cash in on a multiyear deal this winter. Bonus: It’s without the pesky qualifying offer because he was traded midseason.
Zac Gallen, D-backs, right-hander: He has been better lately — perhaps good enough to get tagged with a qualifying offer. Could he accept it and then hit the free agent market at 31 after 2026? Or is this one of the many cases in which labor stoppage fear prompts a free agent to seek something longer term now?
Lucas Giolito, Red Sox, right-hander: Giolito has a $14 million club option that unquestionably will be picked up — but with 14⅔ more innings, it converts to a $19 million mutual option, which Giolito will reject in favor of the multiyear contract he has more than earned.
7. How good are the relief pitchers?
Beyond Diaz and Suárez, Boston closer Aroldis Chapman looked primed for a multiyear deal before he agreed to a one-year, $13 million contract with an option for 2027 with the Red Sox over the weekend. Though it took the best-performing reliever of 2025 off the market, plenty of others remain. Among those available:
Ryan Helsley, Mets, right-hander: In one month with the Mets, he has erased his entire WAR total from the previous four. Helsley’s stuff will get him a fine deal — he will get multiple years at eight figures per — but not nearly as fine as he would have liked it to be.
Devin Williams, Yankees, right-hander: After entering this season primed to threaten Diaz’s record deal, Williams has struggled with the Yankees and is looking at a one-year make-good deal. Working in his favor: a 2.85 FIP that suggests better things to come.
Luke Weaver, Yankees, right-hander: He’s a closer for half the teams in baseball. And he’s going to get paid like it this winter. Weaver just needs to keep his home run rate down.
Kyle Finnegan, Tigers, right-hander: Since joining Detroit at the deadline, Finnegan hasn’t allowed a run in 14⅓ innings, has struck out 19 and allowed just three hits and three walks. He’s setting himself up for a nice payday and is hopeful the groin issue that kept him from entering Wednesday’s game isn’t serious.
Drew Pomeranz, Cubs left-hander: Pitching in the big leagues for the first time in four years, Pomeranz allowed just two earned runs for the Chicago Cubs in his first 25⅔ innings. Since the All-Star break, he has given up nine in 13⅔. Some regression was expected, but Pomeranz’s offseason fortunes will depend on his performance in September and October.
Brad Keller, Cubs, right-hander: Another Cubs reclamation project, Keller, a longtime starter, turned in the best season of his career out of the bullpen. The best part: At 30, he’s one of the younger relievers available.
Tyler Rogers, Mets, right-hander: The sidearmer entered this season with a 2.93 ERA and has fared more than a full run better this season with the Giants and Mets. He’s probably not a closer, but he’s exactly the sort of pitcher who thrives facing the middle of the order. Nos. 3, 4 and 5 hitters are batting .213 with 17 strikeouts, one walk and four extra-base hits against Rogers this year.
Taylor Rogers, Cubs, left-hander: The veteran closer — and twin brother of Tyler — has a season that makes no sense. With a 34-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio in Cincinnati, Taylor managed to post a 2.45 ERA in 40 games. For the Cubs since the deadline, he has struck out 16, walked two and wound up with a 6.75 ERA.
Raisel Iglesias, Braves, right-hander: The 35-year-old has salvaged his season with a good second half after the home run ball clipped him too often in the first half. Iglesias has allowed just one homer in his past 21 innings after yielding six in his first 20⅓.
Kirby Yates, Dodgers, right-hander: The Dodgers nearly doubled Yates’ career-best single-season salary to pair him with Tanner Scott as a two-headed, late-inning duo. It has been as scary as a puppy. And yet teams will happily take Yates and his 46 strikeouts in 35⅓ innings.
Michael Kopech, Dodgers, right-hander: Kopech could make himself plenty of money with a strong September and October. And considering the state of the Dodgers’ bullpen, there’s ample opportunity for him to capture high-leverage innings.
Kenley Jansen, Angels, right-hander: Old reliable, Jansen is in line for his first sub-3.00 ERA since 2021. And although for the first time in his 16-year career he’s going to fall short of double-digit strikeouts per nine innings, Jansen’s effectiveness remains.
Hoby Milner, Rangers, left-hander: The 34-year-old Milner sits around 87 mph with his sinker, and it’s damn near unhittable. As much as his ERAs in 2023 (1.82) and 2024 (4.73) were outliers, Milner is putting up his fourth straight year of a 3.16-or-better FIP. The only others to do that? Milner’s Texas teammate Chris Martin, Williams and Emmanuel Clase, whose career status is uncertain amid an MLB gambling investigation.
Gregory Soto, Mets, left-hander: Among all left-handed relievers with at least 49⅔ innings, only Chapman throws harder than him. Nobody ever will mistake Soto for a control artist, but the stuff is playing, and even if another opportunity to close doesn’t come along, he can carve out a nice career in the middle.
8. How will the industry value Bo Bichette?
After last year’s uncharacteristic cratering, the real Bo Bichette has returned. And we say real because over his first five seasons in the major leagues, Bichette posted a .307/.352/.477. slash line, and this year it’s .310/.354/.478. That sandwiches him between Bobby Witt Jr. and Trea Turner in terms of wOBA among shortstops with at least 130 games. It’s a tremendous platform season for any free agent.
So why are there questions about Bichette’s value? Every publicly available defensive metric has him as the worst defensive shortstop in baseball. Same goes for three teams surveyed independently. And considering top shortstops tend to get more than $250 million in free agency, position — and the ability to stay at a premium one — can be the difference between joining that echelon and falling short.
Despite those concerns, there are some real positives: Bichette is only 27 years old, not 28 until March, the youngest of all the free agents. He’s in his prime with years left to spare. He’s a consistent .300-plus hitter. He goes to all fields. He’s got power. His problem with lateral mobility could easily be solved by a move to third base — though it remains to be seen if he would want to change positions — and his bat would be good enough to play there, too.
Whatever position Bichette mans, wherever he plays, he is a hitter in an era with far too few. Maybe he’s not a $300 million player. But if Turner is worth $300 million and Xander Bogaerts is worth $280 million and both were at least two years older than Bichette when they did sign, surely the market won’t leave him high and dry.
9. Which other infielders will have the most fruitful winters?
For all the consternation about what second baseman Gleyber Torres was and wasn’t with the New York Yankees, what he has been with the Tigers is a completely different version. There were signs of this kind of player in 2020, but the season was truncated, and never again, until now, has he shown such elite plate discipline. Torres is getting on base at a .364 clip — and his expected numbers (which reflect the sort of data teams value) rank sixth in the AL, behind only Judge, Corey Seager, Ben Rice, George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Torres will start next season at 29, a year older than first baseman Josh Naylor, who’s among the youngest players in the class. The age, while genuinely alluring, is not the only thing in Naylor’s favor. He continues to be who he has always been: a bat-to-ball savant with enough power to stick at first. His 23 stolen bases this season are exceptional for a player of Naylor’s build, and although he is prone to slumps — he has been in one of late — by the end of the season his numbers always look around the same. And that’s productive.
Then there’s the matter of Naylor’s Mariners teammate Eugenio Suárez, who at one point led the National League in home runs. Suárez is 34, and after a disaster of a first few weeks in Seattle, he has climbed back to around a league-average bat with the Mariners. He’s a beloved clubhouse figure, and with the prices and desired length of contracts for Bregman, the Japanese corner infielders and even Bichette high, Suárez could be the sort who winds up with a strong deal from a lower-revenue team willing to overpay on a shorter term.
Others who play on the dirt worth monitoring: Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto, Brewers first baseman Rhys Hoskins, Cubs super-utility man Willi Castro and one more, who has one of the most fascinating free agent cases in years.
10. Why did it take you this long to mention the three-time batting champion?
Padres infielder Luis Arraez is one of the most intriguing free agents in years because he is exceptional at a few things, mediocre at everything else and has no obvious comparable player this century. On the good side: Nobody strikes out as infrequently as Arraez, who has just 17 punchouts in 587 plate appearances. Because he puts the ball in play so much, Arraez tends to have a high batting average, too. He won three consecutive batting titles before slumping to .285 this season.
On the other hand, Arraez, one of the younger players in the class at 28, has minimal power, is a below-average defender, can’t run and doesn’t walk. If it weren’t for the extreme bat-to-ball skills, Arraez would not be in the big leagues.
Arraez’s free agency isn’t exactly the litmus test for the value of batting average in modern baseball, but it’s a reasonable signal amid plenty of noise. Batting average matters. Plenty. It doesn’t matter as much as on-base percentage — which, until this year, Arraez had at a .372 clip — or slugging percentage. (Teams tolerate low-average, high-slug players and eagerly avoid high-average, low-slug sorts.) But it matters, and when compounded with the paucity of strikeouts, it’s an asset to whichever team signs him. The question of how much they’ll pay him remains open.
Ohio State coach Ryan Day was candid in his postgame assessment of the Buckeyes’ 70-0 drubbing of FCS Grambling on Saturday, acknowledging it was “not a matchup game.”
That was the theme of Week 2, which featured multiple contenders playing FCS opponents or other unranked, lower-level teams. That doesn’t mean there weren’t a few lessons learned.
“Regardless of your opponent, you can see good execution,” Day said. “Whether it’s penalties, assignments, spacing, timing — there’s a crispness to anybody you play.”
Not everyone demonstrated that crispness on Saturday against weaker competition — and it changed the playoff pecking order. (Here’s lookin’ at you, Clemson.) This list is fluid — and it should be early in the season. It is a ranking based on what each team has done to date — not last year or what it might do in the coming weeks. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The win against Texas gives the Buckeyes a case for the top spot, as does the eye test, as quarterback Julian Sayin continues to flourish with his accuracy, consistency and minimal mistakes in his first year as a starter. The defense under first-year coordinator Matt Patricia continues to look stifling. Ohio State also benefited this week from Clemson’s struggles against Troy, because it takes some of the shine off LSU’s season-opening road win against Clemson. While Clemson struggled, Texas reasserted itself. The selection committee members would include those results in their discussions as they determine who had the better Week 1 win. With Clemson dropping out of this week’s top 12, that honor now goes to Ohio State.
Why they could be lower: The committee could still believe that LSU is the better team and reward it for a season-opening road win. Ohio State manhandled Grambling from the onset, a glorified practice in the Shoe against a SWAC team that trailed 35-0 at the half. The committee would consider that both of Ohio State’s wins were at home.
Need to know: The selection committee isn’t supposed to consider last year’s results, so Ohio State’s 2024 national title isn’t a part of its deliberations, nor is the Associated Press poll ranking. The group evaluates the teams based on their current résumés, so how Texas fares will eventually impact how much the committee values that season-opening win against the Longhorns.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. The Buckeyes will again have home-field advantage for another marquee matchup, and ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State a 61.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Canes’ win against Notre Dame in the season opener separates them from the teams ranked below. They also showed no signs of a letdown against FCS Bethune-Cookman on Saturday. Quarterback Carson Beck completed 22 of his first 24 passes for two touchdowns and no interceptions, and the Canes also accounted for three touchdowns on the ground — a balanced offense the Wildcats had no answer for. The biggest difference for Miami through two games, though, has been a dominant defense.
Why they could be lower: The committee could still reward LSU for winning on the road, whereas both of Miami’s wins were at home. The Seminoles’ win against Bama will carry weight in the room as long as the Tide keep winning, but the reality is that Miami’s win against Notre Dame looks better — at least through two weeks.
Need to know: With Clemson struggling against Troy and losing to LSU, Miami now has the highest chance in the ACC to reach the playoff (46.5%) and earn a first-round bye as one of the committee’s top four teams (14.6%).
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. The Canes get rival Florida at home later this month, but they have to travel to Tallahassee, where the Seminoles have quickly asserted themselves as a team to take seriously this year.
Why they could be here: LSU’s win at Clemson is still separating the Tigers from other contenders, but it lost some of its impact after Clemson had an underwhelming defensive performance and its offense was stagnant for a second straight week — this time against Troy. LSU had its own issues offensively against Louisiana Tech, which was able to put pressure on quarterback Garrett Nussmeier throughout the game. LSU struggled to establish the run and push the ball downfield through the bulk of three quarters against Louisiana Tech. While LSU struggled, both Ohio State and Miami left no doubt they were the better team.
Why they could be higher: The selection committee does consider factors such as where the game was played, and of the top three teams, LSU is the only one with a win on the road against what is probably still a CFP Top 25 team.
Need to know: The CFP selection committee this year is using a metric called “record strength” to help determine how a team performed against its schedule. LSU entered Week 2 ranked No. 2 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, second only to Ohio State.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Ole Miss. The Rebels just beat Kentucky 30-23 for their first SEC win and have a 69.8% chance to beat LSU, according to ESPN’s FPI.
Why they could be here: The Seminoles are still scoring. FSU racked up 70 points against FCS team East Texas A&M — through three quarters. It finished with a 77-3 victory. This FSU team is doing everything it can to make the selection committee forget the 2024 team that won two games. Florida State’s Week 1 win against Alabama was one of the most notable nationally and will continue to help the Noles if the Tide finish as a Top 25 CFP team. The committee also compares common opponents, and although beating East Texas A&M will be a moot point on Selection Day, it’s at least interesting to note that fellow ACC team SMU set the bar in Week 1 when it beat the Lions 42-13.
Why they could be lower: The committee tracks wins against FCS opponents and rewards teams that played tougher opponents. Beating the now 0-2 Lions from the Southland Conference — even with a sledgehammer — isn’t going to earn the Seminoles any bonus points in the room.
Need to know: If the Seminoles can win the unofficial state title by beating rivals Miami and Florida, they could be competing for one of the top four spots and an at-large bid, assuming they finish with one loss or better. ESPN’s FPI, though, gives FSU less than a 50% chance to beat each in-state rival.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Clemson. ESPN’s FPI gives Clemson a 69.9% chance to win. If that’s FSU’s only regular-season loss, though, the two could meet again in the ACC title game.
Why they could be here: The Ducks embarrassed Oklahoma State — they led 41-3 at the half — giving them a win against a struggling Big 12 program. The selection committee would view this as a better win than the lopsided beatdown the Ducks handed FCS opponent Montana State in Week 1. The committee respects sheer dominance, though, as evidenced by last year’s evaluation of Indiana, and for the second straight week, Oregon scored at least 59 points.
Why they could be lower: Both of the Ducks’ wins have come against significantly weaker opponents, and both were at home.
Need to know: Oregon won’t play a ranked opponent until it travels to Penn State later this month, and if the Ducks don’t win that game, their best chances to impress the selection committee against CFP Top 25 opponents during the regular season will likely be against Indiana and USC.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 67.7% chance to win — and it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule that they’re not favored to win.
Why they could be here: Penn State shut out FIU and played a clean game with no penalties or turnovers — the first time the program has done that since Oct. 25, 2008, at Ohio State — but every team ranked above the Nittany Lions here has a better win on its résumé.
Why they could be lower: There are still some questions about Penn State’s offense. The Nittany Lions converted just 3 of 12 third downs and were 2-of-4 on fourth down. They also had a slow start — 10-0 halftime lead — and the pass protection from the offensive line was shaky at times.
Need to know: If Penn State goes 0-2 against Oregon and Ohio State, the Nittany Lions might have only one win against a CFP Top 25 opponent (Indiana). That’s a scenario where a weak nonconference lineup (Nevada, FIU and Villanova) could haunt them.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule for which ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 61.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Vols have scored at least 45 points in back-to-back games. They have not missed a step without quarterback Nico Iamaleava. The season-opening win against Syracuse was respectable, but the Orange needed overtime to beat UConn in Week 2, so the jury is still out on the true value of that nonconference win. It’s still better, though, than what some other contenders are lining up and knocking down. That wasn’t the case on Saturday, when the Vols hammered FCS opponent East Tennessee State.
Why they could be higher: There could be a debate between the Vols and Penn State, as the Nittany Lions are the only team ranked above Tennessee without a Power 4 win. Tennessee’s win against a Southern Conference team won’t impress the committee, but unlike Penn State, the Vols have been consistently dominant on offense.
Need to know: Tennessee has the eighth-best chance to make the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff predictor (51%).
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Georgia. The Vols’ offense has been more productive than the Bulldogs’ so far, but ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 60% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs are right where they’re supposed to be — undefeated heading into Tennessee — but it hasn’t always been pretty. Georgia closed as 46.5-point favorites against Austin Peay and was clinging to an 11-point halftime lead, its narrowest against a non-FBS opponent since 2016 against Nicholls State. Wins against Marshall and Austin Peay wouldn’t stack up well in the selection committee meeting room against some of the wins earned by the teams ranked above the Bulldogs.
Why they could be lower: Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton didn’t have a single passing touchdown against Austin Peay. He didn’t need to with the Bulldogs’ four rushing touchdowns, but the Dawgs were also stuffed to end the first half after a first-and-goal from the 1-yard line.
Need to know: Georgia has the best chance to earn a No. 1 seed (79.7%) and a first-round bye (50.7%), according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. If Arch Manning continues to improve and can find ways to execute the explosive plays he had on Saturday against SEC competition, the Longhorns will again be one of the toughest teams to beat in the SEC.
Why they could be here: Arch Manning and the Longhorns got what they needed — a convincing win against an overmatched opponent and a shot of confidence. But a lopsided win against now 0-2 San Jose State isn’t going to give Texas the boost it needs in the selection committee meeting room. The Longhorns won’t have another opportunity against a ranked opponent until their SEC opener on Oct. 4 at Florida — if the Gators are still a Top 25 team after losing at home to South Florida. The offensive improvement from Week 1 to Week 2, though, is something committee members would notice and continue to track. After a slow start, the Longhorns scored three touchdowns in three minutes and 12 seconds. Manning had four touchdowns on 10 completions at one point in the first half.
Why they could be lower: It’s hard to see the committee putting Texas lower during a week in which other contenders also played lower-caliber opponents.
Need to know: If Texas doesn’t lock up a spot in the CFP as the SEC champ, it should still have a strong enough résumé as a two-loss team to earn an at-large bid. Where it gets a little tricky is with a third loss, and that’s where not having a nonconference win against a Power 4 opponent would enter the committee’s discussion. ESPN’s FPI, though, projects Texas to finish as a two-loss team.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Georgia. This could be a preview of the SEC championship game (again). ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 54% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Irish were idle following their 27-24 season-opening loss at Miami, and the selection committee doesn’t typically move teams that don’t play — unless it’s a result of shuffling around them. The loss to the Canes didn’t knock Notre Dame out of the top 10 because it was close and on the road to a ranked team capable of winning the ACC.
Why they could be lower: Simply because other teams have won two games.
Need to know: How Notre Dame’s opponents fare is critical to the selection process, and it helped the Irish (albeit slightly for now) that Boise State rebounded from its season-opening loss to South Florida. The better the Broncos play, the more respect Notre Dame will earn in the committee meeting room if it beats them on Oct. 4.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. USC. ESPN’s FPI projects Notre Dame will win out and has the second-best chance to do so behind Ohio State. The rivalry game against the Trojans, though, is the closest thing remaining to a coin toss. ESPN’s FPI gives the Irish a 56.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: For the second straight week, the Illini scored at least 45 points, and this time they did it on the road against a respectable Duke team that won nine games last year. It was a convincing nonconference win on the same night South Carolina struggled to get its offense going early at home against South Carolina State. Iowa State garnered some consideration for this spot after its rivalry win against Iowa, but it didn’t help the Cyclones that Kansas State lost to Army (which also lost to Tarleton State). The selection committee considers opponents’ opponents. The Illini’s win wasn’t flawless, but they’re a veteran team that was able to capitalize on Duke’s mistakes on a night when other contenders either beat up on weaker teams or struggled against them.
Why they could be lower: Illinois led by just one at halftime and was aided by five Duke turnovers. South Carolina has a similar nonconference win against an ACC team, as it opened with a win against Virginia Tech, but the Hokies also lost to Vanderbilt on Saturday.
Need to know: Illinois doesn’t play Michigan, Oregon or Penn State during the regular season. That doesn’t mean the schedule is easy, but it’s manageable enough to earn an at-large spot if Illinois looks the part of a playoff team and doesn’t win the Big Ten.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Ohio State. Illinois gets the Buckeyes at home, but ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State an 81.8% chance to win.
Why they could be here: A nonconference win against a ranked Big Ten opponent will earn respect in the selection committee meeting room. It also came on a day when Arizona State struggled against Mississippi State, one of the SEC’s lower-tier teams, and Florida lost to South Florida at home. Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s defense got enough pressure on Michigan freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood to disrupt the Wolverines’ passing game. Sooners quarterback John Mateer accounted for two rushing touchdowns and one passing touchdown but wasn’t flawless.
Why they could be lower: The Sooners got an upgrade in Mateer, but he can’t do everything. The dual-threat quarterback led the team in passing and rushing, but Oklahoma will need more from its ground game against the SEC schedule.
Need to know: This head-to-head result could come into play later if the Sooners and Michigan are competing for an at-large spot. It’s a tiebreaker in the committee meeting room, and as long as their records are the same, OU will have the edge on Michigan. If Oklahoma is going to stay in the playoff race, though, it has to move up in the ranking, because right now it would be bumped out to make room for the Big 12 champ or the highest-ranked champion from the Group of 5.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Texas. ESPN’s FPI gives Texas an 82.9% chance to win.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 LSU (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 USF (American champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Iowa State (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Penn State
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Tennessee
No. 9 Texas at No. 8 Georgia
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 USF/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Iowa State/No. 6 Penn State winner vs. No. 3 LSU
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 Tennessee winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas/No. 8 Georgia winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
While Week 2 of the college football season did not offer the blockbuster matchups we saw in Week 1, it nonetheless packed a significant punch.
The biggest blows were delivered by South Florida, Oklahoma and Oregon, which scored significant wins that boosted their standing in the College Football Playoff pecking order. But there were plenty of other results — some upsets, some near-misses and some less-than-stellar victories — that impacted the overall bowl picture.
As in last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20
Times and networks TBD.
Bonagura: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 6 Miami
Schlabach: No. 11 Iowa State at No. 6 Georgia
Bonagura: No. 10 Iowa State at No. 7 Texas
Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State at No. 7 Texas
Bonagura: No. 9 Utah at No. 8 Florida State
Schlabach: No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Notre Dame
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: Welcome to the party, South Florida. After dominating Boise State in Week 1, the Bulls backed that up by shocking Florida 18-16. That’s two wins against ranked opponents to start the season, and while the jury remains out on how good Boise State and Florida actually are, no other Group of 5 team can claim as good a start. And for that reason, USF earns the No. 5 projected-champion spot this week.
The other big move this week is Oklahoma, which jumped into picture with a strong showing against Michigan. The John Mateer pickup has worked out as designed so far, and with Temple, Auburn and Kent State up next on the schedule, the expectation here is that the Sooners will take a 5-0 record into the Red River Rivalry game with Texas on Oct. 11.
Schlabach: Most of the top CFP contenders beat up on lesser opponents this week, but there was some shakeup in my top 12 because of a couple of surprising results. I dropped Clemson and Utah for Oklahoma and Iowa State. The Tigers struggled to put away Troy 27-16 at home (the Trojans led 16-0 late in the second quarter), which was probably a result of a hangover from a season-opening loss to LSU.
Utah is still one of the top teams in the Big 12, but I thought it was appropriate to reward the Cyclones for their 16-13 victory over Iowa on Saturday. Likewise for Oklahoma, which was impressive in its 24-13 win over Michigan at home. With a stingy defense and Mateer running the offense, the Sooners could be a serious CFP player this season.
South Florida also gets my Group of 5 conference champion pick after it stunned Florida in the Swamp. If USF can somehow make it three in a row at No. 5 Miami next week, it would be in the driver’s seat for a CFP bid.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Miami
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 3 Penn State
CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Florida State vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State
CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 3 LSU
Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State vs. No. 2 LSU
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: Oregon didn’t just beat Oklahoma State — the Ducks demoralized the Cowboys. No living person was around the last time Oklahoma State lost by as many points, underscoring how lopsided the 69-3 win was. A quarterfinal matchup between the Ducks and Texas would be appointment viewing, but there are really no bad possibilities for this round — at least at this point in the season. This is another benefit of the change to not grant the byes to the top four conference champions. It ensures better matchups in the quarters.
Schlabach: The top six teams in my bracket remain unchanged, although I did shuffle the order after Georgia looked sloppy in its 28-6 victory against FCS program Austin Peay at home. The Bulldogs lost two fumbles and couldn’t score from the 1-yard line on three straight plays at the end of the first half. It wasn’t the kind of performance Georgia coach Kirby Smart wanted going into next week’s SEC opener at Tennessee.
I dropped the Bulldogs from No. 4 to No. 6 in the seedings, behind No. 4 Miami and No. 5 Oregon. The Ducks had one of the most impressive performances of the week with their 69-3 demolition of Oklahoma State. Oregon piled up 631 yards of offense and returned two interceptions for touchdowns, handing Mike Gundy the worst loss in his 20-year tenure at his alma mater.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 2 LSU
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: As the SEC and Big Ten arms race continues, just imagine the bragging rights that will come when one of the conferences sends two teams to the championship game for the first time in the expanded playoff era. Both leagues have a chance to achieve that this year, but right now — even though it’s way too early in the season to have a real sense of anything — the Big Ten looks like it has better odds. My current projection has Ohio State and Oregon playing for it all, a repeat of last year’s quarterfinal win by the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl.
Schlabach: Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon rolled this week, while LSU looked a little lethargic in its 23-7 win against Louisiana Tech. The Tigers might have still been celebrating their 17-10 win at Clemson in Week 1. They’re going to have to be more consistent if they’re going to be a legitimate CFP title contender.
Like Kyle, I am projecting a rematch of last season’s Oregon-Ohio State Rose Bowl, but I have them meeting in the semifinals, with the Buckeyes again prevailing.
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Alabama State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arizona vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Washington vs. UNLV
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Troy
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Troy
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Marshall vs. Florida International
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Miami (Ohio)
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Auburn vs. Duke
Schlabach: Vanderbilt vs. Virginia
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Air Force
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Old Dominion vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: Boise State vs. Toledo
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Jacksonville State
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Texas
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UCF vs. Washington State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. New Mexico State
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Navy
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Iowa
Schlabach: BYU vs. Minnesota
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Temple vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Arkansas State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Duke vs. Memphis
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Boston College vs. Tulane
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Texas Tech
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Hawai’i
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Wyoming vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Wyoming vs. Texas State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: SMU vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Texas A&M
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: TCU vs. Ole Miss
Monday, Dec. 29
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kentucky vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Mississippi State vs. North Carolina
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Colorado vs. Liberty
Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Auburn
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: Utah vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Indiana vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Washington
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Alabama
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Cal
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Cal
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Missouri
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: NC State vs. South Carolina
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Arizona State
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