The unprecedented Russian drone attacks on Poland are both a test and a warning.  How Europe and NATO respond could be crucial to security on this continent.

The Russians are past masters at what’s called “salami slicing”. Tactics that use a series of smaller actions to produce a much bigger outcome that otherwise would have been far more provocative.

The Kremlin is probing the West with gradual but steady escalation. A British Council building and an EU installation are bombed in Kyiv; a senior EU official’s plane’s GPS is jammed.

On their own each provocation produces nothing more than rhetoric from the West – but new lines are crossed and Russia is emboldened.

Ukraine war latest: NATO chief sends message to Putin

Putin is good at this.

He used salami slicing tactics masterfully in 2014 with his “little green men” invasion of Crimea, a range of ambiguous military and diplomatic tactics to take control. The West’s confused delay in responding sealed Crimea’s fate.

He has just taken a larger slice of salami with his drone attacks on Poland.

They are of course a test of NATO’s readiness to deploy its Article 5 obligations. Russia has attacked a member state, allies believe deliberately.

Will NATO trigger the all for one, one for all mechanism in Poland’s defence and attack Russia? Not very likely.

But failing to respond projects weakness. Putin will see the results of his test and plot the next one.

Expect lots of talk of sanctions but remember they failed to avert this invasion and have failed to persuade Russia to reverse it. The only sanctions likely to bite are the ones the US president refuses to approve, on Russia’s oil trade.

So how are the drones also a warning? Well, they pose a question.

Vladimir Putin is asking the West if it really wants to become more involved in this conflict with its own forces. Europeans are considering putting boots on the ground inside Ukraine after any potential ceasefire.

If this latest attack is awkward and complicated and hard to respond to now, what happens if Russia uses hybrid tactics then?

Deniable, ambiguous methods that the Russians excel in could make life very difficult for the alliance if it is embroiled in Ukraine.

Think twice before committing your troops there, Russia is warning the West.

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There is more Europe could do.

It could stop buying Russian energy, which it is still astonishingly importing – more than 20 billion euros a year at the last count.

It could use its massive economic advantage (20 times that of Russia’s, and that was before the war) to do more to fund Ukraine’s defence.

While it continues to do neither, expect more excruciating slices of the salami to come.

Riot police have clashed with protesters in Paris after they took to the streets in response to calls to ‘Block Everything’ over discontent with the French government.

Tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets of the French capital and other cities, including Marseille and Montpellier, in response to the online ‘Bloquons Tout’ campaign, which is urging people to strike, block roads, and other public services.

The government has deployed more than 80,000 officers to respond to the unrest, which has seen 200 arrested nationwide so far, according to police, and comes on the same day the new prime minister is being sworn in.

Demonstrators were seen rolling bins into the middle of roads to stop cars, while police rushed to remove the makeshift blockades as quickly as possible.

Tear gas was used by police outside Paris‘s Gare du Nord train station, where around 1,000 gathered, clutching signs declaring Wednesday a public holiday.

Others in the city blocked the entrance to a high school where firefighters were forced to remove burnt objects from a barricade.

Elsewhere in the country, traffic disruptions were reported on major roads in Marseille, Montpellier, Nantes, and Lyon.

Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau told reporters a group of protesters had torched a bus in the Breton city of Rennes.

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Fourth prime minister in a year

The ‘Block Everything’ rallies come amid spiralling national debt and are similar to the Yellow Vest movement that broke out over tax increases during President Emmanuel Macron’s first term.

‘Bloquons tout’ was first spearheaded online by right-wing groups in May but has since been embraced by the left and far left, experts say.

On Monday, former Prime Minister Francois Bayrou lost a vote of no confidence, and was replaced by Sebastien Lecornu at the Hotel Matignon on Wednesday afternoon, becoming the fourth person in the job in just 12 months.

A teacher, Christophe Lalande, taking part in the Paris protests, told reporters at the scene: “Bayrou was ousted, [now] his policies must be eliminated.”

Elsewhere, union member Amar Lagha said: “This day is a message to all the workers of this country: that there is no resignation, the fight continues, and a message to this government that we won’t back down, and if we have to die, we’ll die standing.”

What was Russia’s intent? That’s the pivotal question as Poland and its NATO allies consider their response to drones violating its airspace.

The Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, said “a huge number” of Russian drones entered its airspace, and those that posed a direct threat were shot down.

He’s now consulting both the NATO chief and his partners.

They will be assessing whether this was a deliberate targeting of Poland and, if so, why?

Tusk has said he thinks it was “likely a large-scale provocation”.

Ukraine war latest: Drone incursion was intentional, says NATO

In essence, Russia was deliberately testing the West and NATO’s response.

The Ukrainians seem to agree with this assessment, as does the vice president of the EU Commission.

If correct, that’s a serious escalation.

So, what now?

One option is for Poland to trigger NATO’s Article 4, which allows it to consult other members when it believes its security is threatened.

Poland and some of its allies used this option following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022.

It considered triggering it again later that year when a missile killed two people in a Polish border town until it became clear it was likely a Ukrainian air defence missile.

Another response is to further reinforce border defences.

The EU defence minister has said “we must urgently develop a drone wall along the entire EU eastern flank”.

The EU is already preparing a 19th sanctions package.

It will be looking to the US to follow up on its threats of tougher sanctions as well.

“By entering Polish airspace with attack drones, Russia is testing not only Poland but also the United States as NATO’s main deterrent force,” tweeted Marko Mihkelson, chairman of Estonia’s foreign affairs committee.

Read more:
Putin sends grave warning to Ukraine’s allies
Why fears of a Russian attack on Europe are not ‘hysteria’

NATO will discuss the situation at a meeting on Wednesday and decide how it wants to respond.

It must strike a careful balance between a firm reaction to this suspected test of its resolve and avoiding an escalation in the ongoing war.