Two of the most important Labour-affiliated unions are set to nominate their choice for who should replace Angela Rayner as the party’s deputy leader.
Unison and GMB will pick their candidate on 25 September – two days ahead of the deadline for nominations for Labour affiliates and local party branches.
Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, is seen as the government’s choice of candidate in the race, which has effectively turned into a de facto confidence vote on Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership.
She is up against Lucy Powell, who was sacked as Commons leader in the recent reshuffle and has become the candidate for MPs who are unhappy with the party’s direction after a difficult first year in government.
Ms Phillipson has already secured the backing of the two unions – Community and the Union of Shop, Distributive and Allied Workers.
Will unions want to say ‘sod you’ to PM?
There are question marks over who Unison, GMB and Unite will back in the race, triggered by Ms Rayner quitting as deputy leader, deputy prime minister and housing secretary over underpaid stamp duty on a second home.
While Ms Phillipson may be boosted by having the backing of Number 10, the level of discontent in the Labour Party and wider union movement is at such a level that Ms Powell’s “outsider” status may benefit her.
One union source told Sky News that while they felt Ms Phillipson was the “better candidate”, “the temptation to vote Lucy to give a ‘sod you’ to government is a lot”.
They added: “Number 10 need to start fearing the party. They’ve had it too easy.”
Another union insider said there was a “sense among union leaders that they wish this wasn’t happening”.
They questioned how important a role the unions would play in this contest due to the tight timetable, making it harder for them to mobilise behind a candidate.
“Most unions feel this is not a hugely impactful moment either way,” they said.
“Many of their members will be feeling quite grumpy at how things are going with the government, but at the same time, union leaders won’t want to get on the wrong side of Number 10 over something that is not going to make a meaningful difference in the long term.”
There are questions over the extent of Unite’s involvement and interest in the race.
Although the union is Labour’s biggest supporter, Sharon Graham, its general secretary, has sought to turn its focus away from internal party politics and on to industrial disputes.
On the first day of the Trades Union Congress in Brighton, she told Sky News she’d be “looking very much at their track record – have they backed workers? That’s what I’ll be looking for”.
Image: Sharon Graham said she’ll be looking at which candidate has backed workers
How will the race play out?
In order to proceed to the next stage of the contest, the two candidates must each secure nominations from at least 5% of constituency Labour parties, or at least three organisations affiliated that to the party. At least two of these must be trade unions which make up 5% of fully paid-up affiliated party members.
The deadline to secure the necessary support is Saturday 27 September.
The Labour Party’s annual conference begins the next day, where the candidates who have secured the required backing will be able to make their pitches directly to members in a final hustings.
Ms Phillipson, who has spoken of growing up in a working class area of Sunderland before going on to high office, said she was the person to take on Reform and secure a second term for Labour.
Speaking at a hustings event last week, she told members: “You can use this contest to look backward, to pass judgment on what has happened in the last year, or you can use it to shape positively what happens in the run-up to the next election.”
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0:30
Bridget Phillipson to stand for Labour deputy leader
‘Unforced errors’ cost government
Her message comes in contrast to that of Ms Powell, who has pitched herself as the “shop steward” of the parliamentary party willing to deliver criticism to the prime minister if necessary.
She said Labour’s mistakes in office over welfare and winter fuel payments had given the impression that it is “not on the side of ordinary people”.
In an interview with the BBC, Ms Powell praised the government’s “many achievements”, but added: “Some of the mistakes that we’ve made, or some of the unforced errors, have given a sense that we’re not on the side of ordinary people.”
Although Ms Powell secured fewer nominations from MPs than Ms Phillipson, recent polling by Survation suggests she is ahead with members on 47%, compared with 30% for her rival.
A raft of tax rises is expected in the budget this lunchtime – with the chancellor acknowledging that voters are “angry at the unfairness in our economy”.
In a newly released video, Rachel Reeves said the public is “frustrated at the pace of change” – but vowed to “take the fair and necessary choices” to tackle the cost of living crisis.
And in a dig at the Conservatives – especially former prime minister Liz Truss – she pledged not to impose austerity, lose control of public spending, or engage in more reckless borrowing.
But given the chancellor had ruled out such a measure last year – because it would “hurt working people” and “take more money out of their payslips” – this will attract criticism from opposition parties.
The chancellor has backed away from raising income tax rates outright, a move that would have breached Labour’s manifesto, but she still needs to find the cash to pay for her public spending plans.
Image: Watch our special programme for Budget 2025 live on Sky News from 11am
Some measures already confirmed by the government include:
It is being reported that the chancellor will also put a cap on the tax-free allowance for salary sacrifice schemes, raise taxes on gambling firms, and bring in a pay-per-mile scheme for electric vehicles.
Setting the scene ahead of the budget at 12.30pm, Ms Reeves said she will “push ahead with the biggest drive for growth in a generation”, promising investment in infrastructure, housing, security, defence, education, and skills.
Although she has vowed not to “duck challenges” nor “accept that our past must define our future”, she admitted that “the damage done from austerity, a chaotic Brexit, and the pandemic were worse than we thought”.
What are the key timings for the budget?
11am – Sky News special programme starts.
About 11.15am – Chancellor Rachel Reeves leaves Downing Street and holds up her red box.
12pm – Sir Keir Starmer faces PMQs.
12.30pm – The chancellor delivers the budget.
About 1.30pm – Leader of the Opposition Kemi Badenoch delivers the budget response.
2.30pm – The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) holds a news conference on the UK economy.
4.30pm – Sky News holds a Q&A on what the budget means for you.
7pm – The Politics Hub special programme on the budget.
The fiscal black hole is down to several factors – including a downgrade in the productivity growth forecast, U-turns on cuts to benefits and the winter fuel allowance, as well as “heightened global uncertainty”.
Nonetheless, the chancellor has promised more investment to cut NHS waiting lists, deal with “waste in the public sector”, and reduce the national debt.
“This budget is for you, the British people. So that together we can build a fairer, stronger, and more secure Britain,” she said.
Conservative shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride has said Ms Reeves is “trying to pull the wool over your eyes” – having promised last year that she would not need to raise taxes again.
Meanwhile, Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper has accused her and the prime minister of “yet more betrayals”.
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2:08
What is the ‘milkshake tax’?
What could her key spending announcements be?
As well as filling the black hole in the public finances, these measures could allow the chancellor to spend money on a key demand of Labour MPs – partially or fully lifting the two-child benefits cap, which they say will have an immediate impact on reducing child poverty.
Benefits more broadly will be uprated in line with inflation, at a cost of £6bn, The Times reports.
In an attempt to help households with the cost of the living, the paper also reports that the chancellor will seek to cut energy bills by removing some green levies, which could see funding for some energy efficiency measures reduced.
Other measures The Times says she will announce include retaining the 5p cut in fuel duty, and extending the Electric Car Grant by an extra year, which gives consumers a £3,750 discount at purchase.
The government has already confirmed several key announcements, including:
Extra funding for the NHS will also be announced in a bid to slash waiting lists, including the expansion of the “Neighbourhood Health Service” across the country to bring together GP, nursing, dentistry and pharmacy services – as well as £300m of investment into upgrading technology in the health service.
And although the cost of this is borne by businesses, the chancellor will confirm a 4.1% rise to the national living wage – taking it to £12.71 an hour for eligible workers aged 21 and over.
For a full-time worker over the age of 21, that means a pay increase of £900 a year.
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11:05
What the budget will mean for you
Britons facing ‘cost of living permacrisis’
However, the Tories have hit out at the chancellor for the impending tax rises, with shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride saying in a statement: “Having already raised taxes by £40bn, Reeves said she had wiped the slate clean, she wouldn’t be coming back for more, and it was now on her. A year later and she is set to break that promise.”
He described her choices as “political weakness” – choosing “higher welfare and higher taxes”, and “hardworking families are being handed the bill”.
The Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper is also not impressed, and warned last night: “The economy is at a standstill. Despite years of promises from the Conservatives and now Labour to kickstart growth and clamp down on crushing household bills, the British people are facing a cost-of-living permacrisis and yet more betrayals from those in charge.”
She called on the government to negotiate a new customs union with the EU, which she argues would “grow our economy and bring in tens of billions for the Exchequer”.
Green Party leader Zack Polanski has demanded “bold policies and bold choices that make a real difference to ordinary people”.
The SNP is calling on the chancellor to “help families” rather than “hammer them with billions of pounds of cuts and damaging tax hikes that destroy jobs and hurt economic growth”.
A headline tax-raising measure expected in today’s budget is an extension of the freeze on income tax thresholds for another two years beyond 2028, which should raise about £8bn.
The amount people pay is dependent on how much they earn, with different tax bands kicking in at different income levels.
In the past, these thresholds have been increased in line with inflation. But more recently they have been frozen, leaving people paying more to the exchequer even if actual tax rates stay the same.
Sky News looks at what the thresholds are, the implications of freezing them, and how that causes “fiscal drag”.
Income tax thresholds
England, Northern Ireland and Wales all have the same income tax rates, set by the British government.
Scotland’s income tax bands are set by the Scottish government, so Westminster budget announcements on income tax do not affect workers in Scotland.
For England, Northern Ireland and Wales, there is a “personal allowance” of £12,570, under which no income tax is paid.
For those earning above £100,000, the personal allowance goes down by £1 for every £2 of income, and can go down to zero, so a person can end up paying income tax on all of their income.
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Thresholds were previously increased annually by consumer price index (CPI) inflation – the estimate of the level of prices of goods and services bought by households.
But, because income tax thresholds have been frozen while wages continue to rise, more people are being brought into higher bands and having to pay more income tax.
A worker whose earnings just keep up with inflation is paying a larger proportion of their salary in tax due to the freeze.
This means more money for the government – a lot more.
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11:05
The budget vs your wallet: How the chancellor could raise billions
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimates a continuing freeze in thresholds would raise about £42.9bn annually by the 2027/28 tax year.
And the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has projected that freezes to the basic and higher rates of income tax alone would raise £39bn a year by 2029-30.
That is roughly similar to the amount of revenue that would be raised by increasing all income tax rates by 3.5 percentage points.
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3:35
Sky News goes inside the room where the budget is decided
Fiscal drag
Freezing income tax thresholds without tax rates increasing has been branded a “stealth tax”, as the government collects more revenue without having to pass a law to raise tax rates.
It is also known as fiscal drag, as more people are pulled into paying tax, or into paying tax at a higher rate.
The OBR estimates the freeze will bring nearly four million more people into paying income tax, three million more people into the higher rate (40%) and 400,000 more into the additional rate (45%) by 2028-29.
Bereaved families of black, minorities and migrant women who died after suffering violence and abuse have called on the prime minister to help end femicide.
At a Downing Street vigil on International Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women, the group said urgent reforms to policing and sentencing are needed “to address systemic failures”.
Yasmin Javed, whose daughter Fawziyah Javed was killed after being pushed by her husband from Arthur’s Seat in Edinburgh, said authorities had ignored Fawziyah’s reports of abuse.
Image: Fawziyah Javed died after being pushed by her husband from Arthur’s Seat in Edinburgh
“It fell on deaf ears,” she told Sky News, explaining that Fawziyah, 31, who was pregnant when she died, had made complaints about her husband but had been murdered days before she was set to leave him.
“We’ve had our hearts ripped into millions of pieces. It’s not getting any easier, it’s getting more and more difficult.”
Tuesday’s vigil highlighted key legislative amendments the families, led by campaign group Southall Black Sisters, are championing.
The amendments include Banaz’s Law, named after 20-year-old Banaz Mahmod, who was subjected to an horrific assault, strangled and stuffed in a suitcase by family members on the orders of her father.
Image: The Downing Street vigil took place on International Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women
The amendment seeks to explicitly recognise “honour-based” abuse as an aggravating factor in sentencing for relevant offences.
The families also want courts to impose sentences equivalent to murder for self-harm and suicides driven by domestic and “honour”-based abuse, and say the government must ensure all women have equal access to safety and support, regardless of immigration status.
Banaz Mahmod’s sister Bekhal, who testified against her relatives to help secure their conviction, said nearly two decades after the murder, efforts to protect women had not progressed.
Image: Banaz Mahmod was killed on the orders of her father
Speaking from an undisclosed location in the witness protection scheme, she said the murder “happened in 2006, and we’re almost in 2026 – that’s 20 years later. Not much has changed and it’s very, very disappointing.
“What happened to Banaz has happened, but what we could do is prevent it from happening to other people. I don’t understand why much more hasn’t been done to better the situation for others.”