By-elections that shook up politics – could Andy Burnham be next?

Published

2 days ago

September 20, 2025

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By-election counts are the FA Cup ties of British politics.

Some go true to form, but many are tense, nail-biting, go deep into extra time and provide upsets and shocks by political giant killers.

Publisher and broadcaster Iain Dale has published a weighty book, British By-elections: The 88 By-election Campaigns That Shaped Our Politics.

Could Labour’s King of the North, football fanatic Andy Burnham, who’s tipped to come off the bench and contest Gorton and Denton in a by-election, be next?

Burnham fuelled speculation about a Commons comeback when he said in an interview on Thursday he had “never ruled out going back to Westminster”.

With chapters written by politicians, academics and journalists in his book, Dale claims his 88 are the most consequential by-elections of the modern era.

Now I can’t claim to have covered 88 by-election counts for Sky News. After all, the first was in 1769 and 70 of the 88 in the book were before the 21st century.

But I have covered 44, if I’m not mistaken, starting in 2003, and I’m grateful for a few mentions in the book, some flattering, some less so. But there you go.

“There’s rarely a dull by-election,” Dale writes in his preface. “Some by-elections take on iconic status and are remembered several decades after they take place.

“Others quickly disappear into the depths of our memories, rarely to be thought about ever again.”

The first by-election I covered for Sky News, in September 2003, was Brent East, which saw a shock win for the Liberal Democrats over Labour.

The most recent was Runcorn and Helsby, in May this year, when Reform UK’s Sarah Pochin was just six votes ahead of Labour after an all-nighter and a result at 6am.

When there’s a recount, I’ve joked about VAR holding up the result. I even covered one by-election count, Stretford and Urmston, at the Old Trafford football ground.

Over 22 years of covering by-election counts I hope I’ve learned the tricks of the trade when the result is on a knife-edge: One, look closely at the piles of ballot papers; two, see which candidate has a victory speech in their hand or pocket.

But most important, three, find out what’s said in the huddle when the returning officer calls the candidates and their agents together to brief them on the result ahead of the declaration.

It may have been my first TV count after more than 20 years in newspapers, but lesson three served me well at Brent East, as my former Sky News colleague Joe Pike reveals in his chapter on Sarah Teather’s triumph.

“Jon Craig, Sky News’ new signing, who would go on to broadcast from more than 40 by-election counts, announced Labour’s loss even before the returning officer had stood up,” Pike writes.

“(Robert) Evans (Labour’s candidate) tipped him off that Labour had lost by 1,000 votes and Craig passed on the revelation on live TV.”

Thanks, Joe. I’d kept quiet about how I discovered the result until now.

A glaring omission from the book, in my opinion, is George Galloway’s upset in Bradford West in 2012.

When Sky News arrived at the count, everyone in the hall was predicting a Labour win. But gradually the mood changed. I texted George: “Labour getting jitters here, George! Say you’re doing very well. What do you think?”

“Think I’m going to win, Jon,” he replied instantly.

“Labour and Tory MPs think so too,” I told him. “Keen to get you on TV.” I called him and urged him to come to the count and claim victory.

And ‘Gorgeous George’, never one to be shy or turn down publicity, duly obliged. He’d turned a Labour majority of nearly 6,000 into a victory for his Respect Party by more than 10,000 votes, a swing of more than 50%.

Richmond Park, in 2016, and Copeland, 2017, are in the book. My memory of Richmond Park is chasing a very angry Zac Goldsmith, the Tory Heathrow expansion rebel, around the count after he lost to the Lib Dem Sarah Olney.

Hartlepool, in 2021, was a by-election that really did take on iconic status. It was a rare Tory gain, a victory for Boris Johnson in the Red Wall and it threw the new Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer into a panic.

He sacked his chief whip, Nick Brown, tried to demote his deputy, Angela Rayner. But that backfired, as she acquired even more titles. He’s since admitted he considered quitting.

The result came at 7.10am, by which time a giant inflatable Boris Johnson doll had been erected outside the count. My post-results broadcasts were from in front of that.

Oh, and on the Monday, back in Westminster, I tested positive for COVID. Red Wall COVID.

The second Batley and Spen by-election, later in 2021, saw ‘Gorgeous George’ attempt to repeat his Bradford West triumph. Tracy Brabin had succeeded the murdered Jo Cox in 2016 but had quit to become West Yorkshire mayor.

This time Kim Leadbeater, Jo’s sister and now the assisted dying crusader, was Labour’s candidate. Galloway was described by author Emma Burnell in the book as “a serial candidate over the years, with varying levels of success”.

This “Red Wall” clash was, though, a classic knife-edge by-election, running deep into extra time, with Leadbeater squeezing home by 323 votes ahead of the Tory candidate Ryan Stephenson. Cue VAR gags during the delays.

“On election night, neither Labour nor the Conservatives were confident of victory,” writes Burnell, editor of LabourList. “Mobile phones were banned from the count and so most of the news the candidates were receiving was through television coverage.

“At one point, Sky’s Jon Craig declared that the Tories had won and it was just a case of by how much. However, Stephenson delights in telling the story of his entering the count later (now aware of how the night had gone) to overhear Craig announcing to the nation: ‘The loser, Mr Stephenson, has now arrived.’

“Leadbeater, meanwhile, had not prepared her victory speech, convinced as she was that she had lost.” My recollection, however, is different and I’m sure she did have a speech. (Lesson two)

At Mid-Bedfordshire in 2023 after Nadine Dorries’ resignation, LBC radio’s Henry Riley recalls a tense count and writes: “The only brief moment of levity was when veteran by-election reporter-in-chief Jon Craig of Sky News was presented with a cake by the High Sheriff of Bedfordshire, Russell Beard, to celebrate his 40th by-election.”

From new signing to veteran in just 20 years. It’s a cruel world.

In Rochdale last year, George Galloway was back. And this time he won by nearly 6,000 votes and became the first MP elected to represent a fourth different Westminster constituency since Winston Churchill, Sunder Katwala tells us in the book.

George and I are old comrades, going back to his days as a left-wing firebrand in the Labour Party. I was a touch embarrassed at Rochdale, however, when he said during our post-result interview: “You bought me lunch!”

Runcorn and Helsby was so close – six votes – that the count dragged on until 6am after a massive recount. “As the night turned to morning, Labour staff looked more and more nervous,” writes ITV’s Harry Horton in the book.

“Reform’s team appeared nervous. At one point, a Reform aide instructed photographers to assemble at the door for the arrival of Nigel Farage.

“One broadcaster claimed he’d seen the Reform leaders circling the car park outside but had driven off when it appeared Labour might sneak a win. Farage later denied anything of the sort had ever happened.”

Well, as the “one broadcaster” referred to by Harry, there was indeed a car circling the car park. But, admittedly, it was dark! We all make mistakes.

There have been a few blunders. At one count, not long after she became an MP, I mistook Angela Rayner for Jess Phillips. Fortunately, she told me she was flattered. Whatever happened to her?

So where next on the by-election fixture list? Will Andy Burnham contest Gwyne’s seat prior to challenging Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour captaincy?

With Reform UK the challengers in Gorton and Denton, that’s a by-election that could be one for VAR.

UK

UK officially recognises Palestine as a state

Published

3 hours ago

September 21, 2025

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UK officially recognises Palestine as a state

Sir Keir Starmer has announced the UK has officially recognised Palestine as a state.

“Today, to revive the hope of peace for the Palestinians and Israelis, and a two state solution, the United Kingdom formally recognises the State of Palestine,” the prime minister said on X, alongside a longer video statement.

“In the face of the growing horror in the Middle East, we are acting to keep alive the possibility of peace and a two-state solution.

“That means a safe and secure Israel alongside a viable Palestinian state. At the moment, we have neither.”

Follow latest: Palestine recognised as a state by three countries

Canada and Australia also officially recognised Palestinian statehood on Sunday, ahead of a conference of the UN General Assembly in New York this week.

It is a significant moment in the history of Britain’s involvement in the region, and comes as the death toll from the Israeli war on Gaza continues to rise and conditions for the people trapped become even more desperate.

Sir Keir said in July that the government would recognise Palestine unless Israel met certain conditions, including agreeing to a ceasefire and allowing the UN to restart the supply of aid.

In recognising Palestine as a state, the UK does so based on 1967 borders to be finalised as part of future negotiations. It would be led by a “reformed Palestinian Authority”.

The UK also acknowledges “all legal rights and obligations of statehood” for Palestine.

An updated map on the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office website now has the West Bank and Gaza labelled as ‘Palestine’ rather than the ‘Occupied Palestinian Territories’. This change has been rolled out across the website.

Sir Keir calls on Hamas to release the hostages

The prime minister repeated his calls for the the Israeli hostages – held in captivity since the brutal attacks on Israel on 7 October, 2023 – to be released by Hamas.

“I have met British families of the hostages. I see the torture that they endure each and every day. Pain that strikes deep in people’s hearts across Israel and here in the United Kingdom.

“The hostages must be released immediately and we will keep fighting to bring them home.”

Sir Keir was also clear to emphasise that recognition of Palestine was “not a reward for Hamas”, saying that the terror group “can have no future, no role in government, no role in security” in a future state.

“I have directed work to sanction other Hamas figures in the coming weeks,” he added.

Starmer calls on Israel to end Gaza offensives

Sir Keir also repeated his criticism of Israel, which for nearly two years has waged a brutal war on the densely-populated Gaza Strip.

“The Israeli government’s relentless and increasing bombardment of Gaza, the offensive of recent weeks, the starvation and devastation are utterly intolerable.”

The death toll in Gaza since the IDF launched its offensive following the 7 October attacks has now risen above 65,000 people, according to Hamas-run health authorities.

“This death and destruction horrifies all of us. It must end,” he said.

British people ‘desperately want to see’ peace

Sir Keir also said: “Ordinary people, Israeli and Palestinian, deserve to live in peace. To try to rebuild their lives free from violence and suffering.

“That’s what the British people desperately want to see.”

But he warned that the possibility of a Palestinian state was in danger of vanishing forever.

“With the actions of Hamas, the Israeli government escalating the conflict, and settlement building being accelerated in the West Bank, the hope of a two-state solution is fading, but we cannot let that light go out.

“That is why we are building consensus with leaders in the region and beyond, around our framework for peace.”

Sir Keir said this is a “practical plan” to bring people together behind a “common vision” that moves from a ceasefire in Gaza to negotiations on a two-state solution.

“We will keep driving this forward,” he pledged.

UK

What will the UK’s recognition of Palestine achieve?

Published

6 hours ago

September 21, 2025

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What will the UK's recognition of Palestine achieve?

Today, Sir Keir Starmer will deliver on his pledge to recognise a Palestinian state – after setting out a series of conditions in July which there was little prospect Israel could meet, including agreeing a ceasefire with Hamas.

The prime minister will say it recognises the “inalienable right” of the Palestinian people and what he feels is a moral responsibility to keep a two-state solution alive, amid the devastation of the war and concern about settlement expansion in the West Bank.

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This will be formally put forward by the British government at a conference of the UN General Assembly in New York this week, after a diplomatic push led by Emmanuel Macron. Canada and Australia are also expected to recognise it, although may call for Hamas to disarm.

But Labour has always said it’s a move they would make as part of a peace process, which looks further away than ever.

What does it mean?

The move has been heavily criticised and leaves a number of questions not only about what it will achieve – but about whether it will have the opposite effect on the conflict.

David Lammy as foreign secretary conceded when the pledge was announced that “it will not change the position on the ground” which can only come through negotiations.

After all, 147 of the 193 member states of the United Nations recognise it already. Palestine has permanent observer status at the UN – speaking rights, but not voting rights – where it’s represented by the Palestinian Authority. Any move to full status would have to be agreed by the Security Council where the US has a veto.

Sir Keir has made clear he doesn’t accept Hamas – which he calls a “brutal terrorist organisation” – as a government in Gaza. The borders of such a state, wrangled over for decades during multiple rounds of negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, are also not agreed.

Criticism

Recognition is opposed by the Trump administration, as the US president made clear in London last week. US secretary of state Marco Rubio has said it would “embolden Hamas” and be symbolic only.

In Britain there is cynicism too. Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, has accused the prime minister of a “desperate and insincere attempt to placate his backbenchers”. He heads to the party’s conference in Liverpool next week with a further slump in his approval ratings to -42%, around where Rishi Sunak’s was after his D-Day blunder.

Over a third of Labour MPs wrote to Sir Keir before his pledge in July, calling for recognition of a Palestinian state. It is not clear this symbolic move will placate them, with some already calling for tougher measures including on arms sales to Israel – especially after a UN Commission of Inquiry claimed Israel had committed genocide.

Other Labour MPs oppose the recognition move. The Labour Friends of Israel group has said: “It is important to recognise that Israel is not the only party to this conflict… Hamas could end this conflict tomorrow by releasing the hostages and laying down its arms.”

The move is also opposed by the families of the hostages in Gaza, of which 20 are believed to be alive – for not imposing their release as a condition on Hamas.

Ilay David, the brother of Evyatar David, who recently appeared emaciated in a Hamas video, said: “We want to meet with Starmer but he refuses to meet with us… Giving this recognition is like saying to Hamas: ‘It is OK you can keep starving the hostages, you can keep using them as human shields’. This kind of recognition gives Hamas power to be stubborn in negotiations. That is the last thing we need right now.”

Sir Ephraim Mirvis, the UK’s Chief Rabbi has said the “unconditional” recognition of the state “is not contingent upon a functioning or democratic Palestinian government, nor even upon the most basic commitment to a peaceful future”.

What happens next?

Sir Keir met 89-year-old Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority, in London this month and they agreed Hamas should not be involved in the governance of Gaza.

Efforts to set up a transitional government have been discussed between the US and Gulf states. But Mike Huckabee, the US ambassador to Israel, said last week there was nothing “ready for signature”.

The UK government is expected to announce further sanctions on Hamas figures this week. But the Israeli government has already responded with fury to the prospect of recognition and it’s reported that retaliation could include further annexations in the West Bank.

The UK government sees this as an important diplomatic move with allies, when nothing else is moving the dial. But it can only be made once, and even supporters in government acknowledge that on the ground in Gaza it won’t immediately change very much.

UK

British fighter jets defend Polish skies after Russian drone incursion

Published

9 hours ago

September 21, 2025

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British fighter jets defend Polish skies after Russian drone incursion

Two British fighter jets have flown their first defence mission over Poland after a Russian drone incursion into the country’s skies.

The flight was part of NATO‘s operation “Eastern Sentry”, launched to bolster Europe’s eastern flank after Poland shot down Russian drones earlier this month.

A Russian drone was intercepted flying over Romania days later, while three Russian jets entered Estonian airspace without permission for 12 minutes on Friday.

The three incursions into NATO airspace fuelled concerns about the potential expansion of Russia‘s three-year war in Ukraine and have been seen as an attempt by Moscow to test the military alliance’s response.

The incident over Poland prompted its prime minister, Donald Tusk, to warn that his country was the closest to “open conflict” it had been since the Second World War, while the UK announced it would provide Warsaw with extra air cover.

Two RAF Typhoons, supported by an RAF Voyager air-to-air refuelling plane, took off from RAF Coningsby, in Lincolnshire, on Friday night to defend Poland’s skies before returning safely early on Saturday morning.

Defence Secretary John Healey said the mission sends a clear signal that “NATO airspace will be defended”.

“I’m proud of the outstanding British pilots and air crew who took part in this successful operation to defend our allies from reckless Russian aggression.”

He said the mission was “especially poignant” coming as the UK marks the 85th anniversary of the Battle of Britain – when Polish pilots came to the aid of the UK – this weekend.

The head of the RAF, Air Chief Marshal Harv Smyth, said: “This sortie marks the RAF’s first operational mission on Eastern Sentry, reinforcing the UK’s steadfast commitment to NATO and its allies.

“We remain agile, integrated, and ready to project airpower at range.”