The 34 college football games you need to keep an eye on this weekend
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Bill ConnellySep 19, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
You could say that Saturday brings the first act of the 2025 college football season to a close.
Next week, we’ll get a couple of mammoth helmet games — Oregon at Penn State, Alabama at Georgia — and conference play will be fully underway. We’ll head into October talking a lot about playoff implications and the hierarchy among the sport’s top teams.
First, however, we have to tie up some loose ends. We get another week to figure out which of a large group of hyped-but-struggling quarterbacks — Texas’ Arch Manning, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, Florida’s DJ Lagway, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier — will steer out of a current skid. We get a huge Illinois-Indiana game (just an amazing combination of words there). We get a matchup of two of the Big 12’s best and meanest teams to date (Texas Tech at Utah). We get former Sooners quarterback Jackson Arnold and Auburn heading to Norman in a battle of SEC unbeatens. And we get another massive week in the Group of 5, with American Conference unbeatens Memphis and Tulane getting shots at SEC upsets and ambitious teams such as UNLV, North Texas and Boise State facing big road tests.
At the start of the college football season, 11 teams had at least a 2% chance of winning the national title, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Three weeks in, there are 13. Nothing has been even slightly decided through three weeks, and the door for chaos could open even further this weekend. Before we get to the second act of 2025, here’s everything you need to follow in a loaded Week 4.
All times Eastern.
Jump to a section:
Scuffling QBs | Indiana-Illinois
Big 12 headliner | SEC eliminators?
G5’s big weekend | Week 4 playlist
Small-school showcase

Which disappointing quarterback can rally?
Despite some chaotic undertones, the season has gone approximately as we thought it might. Among the top nine teams in the preseason SP+ rankings, six are still there, and the three others (Texas, Notre Dame, Michigan) haven’t exactly plummeted. Some teams have disappointed early on, but few seasons are completely lost.
For a quartet of quarterbacks, however, we’re approaching now-or-never territory: Either start looking like you were supposed to look or chalk up 2025 as a spectacular disappointment.
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Florida at No. 4 Miami (7:30 p.m., ABC)
If DJ Lagway threw only three interceptions against LSU, the Gators might have scored an upset. That’s a positive, right? He instead threw five in a 20-10 loss, but the Florida defense still gave the Gators a chance. It has allowed only 38 points in three games.
The offense has scored only 26 in two FBS games. Opponents aren’t afraid of the run game, receivers aren’t getting open, and Lagway is developing some pretty extreme tendencies in passing to specific areas of the field (as evidenced by all the green “completion” dots along the right sideline on this chart):
Four of Lagway’s six 2025 interceptions have come on third-and-long, and a fifth came in a last-ditch drive against LSU. He’s trying desperately to make something happen, and it’s bringing out some terrible tendencies.
Miami quarterback Carson Beck has been good, and he has gotten the help Lagway hasn’t, from his offensive line and his receivers. But the Florida defense could make this one interesting if Lagway can take what he’s given by a Miami defense that ranks 83rd in yards allowed per dropback.
Current line: Miami -7.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 10.6 | FPI projection: Miami by 7.2
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Syracuse at Clemson (noon, ESPN)
Like Lagway, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik has performed far worse than expected and has gotten little help from his castmates. Syracuse has a history of overachieving against Clemson, but the Orange have the worst-rated FBS defense remaining on the Tigers’ schedule. If Clemson’s offense, currently 96th in points per drive, doesn’t get going now, when might that happen?
The Orange blitz a good amount, and blitzing has hurt Clemson because of a banged-up offensive line and a less-than-scary run game. Klubnik is getting hit a lot and throwing lots of passes short of the sticks. The timing of the offense is off, and the Tigers can’t afford to suffer another conference loss before they start to figure things out. The return of veteran receiver Antonio Williams, listed as probable for Saturday, can’t hurt.
Current line: Clemson -16.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 9.2 | FPI projection: Clemson by 9.6
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Southeastern Louisiana at No. 3 LSU (7:45 p.m., SECN)
With all proper respect to Southeastern Louisiana — the Lions are seventh in FCS SP+ with a loss to only Louisiana Tech — I’m guessing that LSU remains unbeaten Saturday. Now’s a good time to start repairing an LSU offense that ranks just 112th in points per drive.
Garrett Nussmeier has the most tenable place on this list; his team is unbeaten, and he’s 37th in Total QBR — not what was expected but far higher than anyone else here. His main issue is that he’s playing it safe. The LSU run game might be even worse than it was last year, the offensive line is committing too many penalties, and Nussmeier is throwing mostly quick passes to keep the train moving. His 65% completion rate is solid, but his average yards per completion has fallen from 12.0 (pretty low) to 10.0 (terribly low).
LSU’s line should hold up against SELA — if it doesn’t, yikes — so it will be interesting to see if Nussmeier starts looking further downfield. Now’s the time to build some better habits.
SP+ projection: LSU by 33.0 | FPI projection: LSU by 34.9
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Sam Houston at No. 8 Texas (8 p.m., ESPN+)
Going by projections, Texas has the easiest game on this list. But Arch Manning might also be the most broken QB. After showing potential progress in Week 2, Manning completed just 11 of 25 passes for 114 yards, a touchdown and an interception against UTEP. The Miners mostly rushed only four defenders and forced Manning to work through progressions; he took forever to throw and was frequently inaccurate.
Manning is 124th out of 136 QBs with a 55.3% completion rate, and he’s 133rd in average time to throw (3.28 seconds). Meanwhile, his 14 dropbacks against man coverage have netted 13 total yards. His running backs are hurt, his line isn’t great, his receivers aren’t getting open enough and he’s throwing inaccurate passes. If the Texas offense doesn’t get right against a dreadful Sam Houston defense, it might not happen.
Current line: Texas -39.5 (down from -41.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Texas by 40.0 | FPI projection: Texas by 37.7
Shades of 1950 in Bloomington
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No. 9 Illinois at No. 19 Indiana (7:30 p.m., NBC)
On Oct. 28, 1950, “Goodnight Irene,” performed by The Weavers, was dominating the airwaves. “All About Eve,” starring Bette Davis and featuring a young Marilyn Monroe, was in theaters. SMU was No. 1 in the country, Bear Bryant’s Kentucky was No. 4 and live college football wasn’t found on national television.
It was a long time ago, is what I’m saying. And it was the last time Illinois and Indiana met as ranked foes. In that game, the No. 12 Fighting Illini rode spectacular line play to a 20-0 win over the No. 19 Hoosiers. History hasn’t been kind to either program since. But that has shifted of late.
Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers and Bret Bielema’s Illini are a combined 27-5 since the start of 2024, and though neither has played an opponent ranked higher than 65th in SP+, both are in the top 15 in points and points allowed per drive this season. They’re treating iffy opposition like excellent teams are supposed to.
Both teams dominate in the Little Things department — red zone, field position, turnovers — and both boast efficient offenses with dominant receivers: Indiana’s Omar Cooper Jr. has 299 yards and four TDs, while Illinois’ Hank Beatty has caught 19 of 20 passes for 289 yards and a TD. Each defense has allowed a few big plays, but they’re both still giving up 4.6 or fewer yards per play.
We know that blue bloods get the best TV ratings, but these two teams have earned this prime-time slot. The computers and sportsbooks lean toward Indiana — and frankly, it’s odd that Illinois is ranked 10 spots higher in the polls — but it would be a surprise if this one didn’t go down to the wire.
Current line: Indiana -6.5 (up from -4.5) | SP+ projection: Indiana by 3.9 | FPI projection: Indiana by 3.1
A Big 12 headliner in Salt Lake City
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No. 17 Texas Tech at No. 16 Utah (noon, Fox)
If you take preseason projections out of the equation — a terrible idea if you want predictive accuracy, but an intriguing way to look at performance to date — Texas Tech would be first in SP+ and Utah would be eighth. The Red Raiders have overwhelmed three bad opponents by an average score of 58-12, and the Utes lead the Big 12 in early overachievement, topping SP+ projections by an average of 13.7 points per game. On Saturday, one of these teams will score a huge early Big 12 win.
Tech’s defense gives up quite a few big plays, while Utah’s offense, as is customary, doesn’t make many. The Utes rank first in rushing success rate, but so does Tech’s defense. Defensive tackles A. J. Holmes Jr. and Skyler Gill-Howard have eaten up interior run blockers, but the Utah line is one of the most proven in the country, and quarterback Devon Dampier and RBs NaQuari Rogers and Wayshawn Parker keep Utah on schedule.
Even with huge leads in each game, Texas Tech has passed more than 35 times per game at a fast tempo. The Red Raiders are third in yards per dropback, and Behren Morton is completing 70% of his passes at 16.2 yards per completion. Receiver Coy Eakin‘s early numbers (245 yards at 20.4 per catch) are scary.
As you’d expect, however, Utah’s pass defense looks good, too: eighth in completion rate, ninth in interception rate, 24th in yards per dropback. The Utes have given up a few more third-and-long conversions than expected, and if that remains an issue, Tech might never give up the ball. Regardless, there are strength-versus-strength matchups everywhere. This game will be awfully fun.
Current line: Utah -3.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 1.9 | FPI projection: Utah by 3.8
SEC elimination(ish) day
As with Indiana-Illinois in the Big Ten, the SEC has a couple of huge games among teams that aren’t necessarily conference title contenders — though, we don’t know for sure yet — but are jockeying for 10-2 records and potential CFP bids.
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No. 22 Auburn at No. 11 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Oklahoma’s ridiculously back-loaded schedule — six of its final seven opponents rank 17th or higher in SP+ — meant that the Sooners would need a fast start. So far, so good. They’re 3-0 with a win over Michigan despite an offense that remains a work in progress. Quarterback John Mateer might be the current Heisman betting favorite, but the run game averages just 4.3 yards per carry (not including sacks), and the Sooners have fumbled five times with lots of passes broken up. Their five turnovers (104th nationally) haven’t come from bad luck.
Still, Mateer is creating big plays with his arm, and four Sooner pass catchers are on pace for 50-plus receptions. Plus, the OU defense doesn’t need a ton of help — the Sooners rank fourth in points allowed per drive and third in yards allowed per play.
They’re also sixth in rushing success rate allowed, and that might be the most important number against Auburn. The Tigers are running the ball a ton, with the combo of running back Jeremiah Cobb and quarterback Jackson Arnold carrying a heavy load. They’re avoiding must-pass situations — which doomed Arnold as OU’s QB in 2024 — but they’ll likely face some Saturday afternoon, and we’ll learn if Arnold has improved a little or a lot from last year’s disastrous campaign.
Current line: OU -6.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 7.4 | FPI projection: OU by 3.8
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South Carolina at No. 23 Missouri (7 p.m., ESPN)
Missouri is one of just 16 teams to overachieve against SP+ projections in all three games, and the Tigers are up to 11th in SP+ because of it. The offense looks great because of a trio of transfers: quarterback Beau Pribula (on pace for 3,100 passing yards), running back Ahmad Hardy (1,800 rushing yards), and receiver Kevin Coleman Jr. (1,000 receiving yards).
South Carolina has the first top-50 defense (per SP+) the Tigers have faced, though the Gamecocks got worked over by Vanderbilt’s efficient attack last week in a jarring 31-7 loss. They don’t give up many big plays, but they rank 73rd in success rate. Mizzou’s offense ranks 12th.
The South Carolina offense saw plenty of offseason hype, but it has been an absolute dud, scoring just five touchdowns in three games and ranking 123rd in points per drive. Receivers Nyck Harbor and Donovan Murph are averaging 21.6 yards per catch, but at only four catches per game. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers has become even more sack-prone — I probably should have put him on the disappointing QBs list above — and this week, he has had to work through concussion protocol while preparing to face a Mizzou defense that grades out as well as or better than Vandy’s.
Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks are projected favorites in only two more games this season. Either they get back on track immediately or 2025 veers into “Lost Season” territory.
Current line: Mizzou -10.5 (down from -12.5) | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 13.7 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 9.5
Another huge weekend for the Group of 5
The race for the Group of 5’s guaranteed playoff spot could see some twists this week, with two major hopefuls (Memphis and Tulane) getting shots at SEC upsets, and three others — UNLV, North Texas and Boise State — all facing tricky road trips.
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Arkansas at Memphis (noon, ABC)
Memphis has looked awesome early and gets AAC opponents South Florida, Tulane and Navy at home. SP+ gives the Tigers a 36% chance of finishing 11-1 or better. Quarterback Brendon Lewis and running back Sutton Smith (in for the injured Greg Desrosiers Jr.) lead an efficient offense, and the defense has crushed bad offenses (including a Troy offense that lost its starting QB early on).
Arkansas’ offense, however, is as explosive as ever, thanks to quarterback Taylen Green, running back Mike Washington Jr. and receiver O’Mega Blake. The Razorbacks could be a permanent track-meet team thanks to a shaky defense, but Arkansas is capable of regularly winning those track meets, too.
Current line: Arkansas -7.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 0.5 | FPI projection: Arkansas by 2.4
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Tulane at No. 13 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
It’s hard to figure out how good Tulane actually is. The Green Wave made runs of 27-0 against South Alabama and 24-3 against Duke but let both opponents back into the game. Jake Retzlaff is 11th in Total QBR, but the run game moves backward a lot. The defense is a turnover machine, but it’s inefficient otherwise. Against whichever Ole Miss QB holds the reins — the injured Austin Simmons or backup Trinidad Chambliss, who destroyed Arkansas — the Green Wave will need far more stops than they’ve been making. Ole Miss’ run defense has been damningly bad, but the Rebels probably have too much firepower for Tulane to snag a third power-conference victory.
Current line: Ole Miss -13.5 | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 17.5 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 13.8
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UNLV at Miami (Ohio) (noon, ESPNU)
After a rough start against Idaho State in Week 0, Dan Mullen’s UNLV has begun to look the part, and SP+ gives the Rebels a 14% chance of getting to 11-1 or better. Anthony Colandrea is fifth among G5 quarterbacks in Total QBR, both RB Jai’Den Thomas and WR Jaden Bradley are on pace for 1,000-yard seasons, and the defense has at least stabilized a bit.
Miami was outscored 62-17 by Wisconsin and Rutgers, but the RedHawks gave up almost no big plays, and with explosive quarterback Dequan Finn and receivers Keith Reynolds and Kam Perry on offense, they could make UNLV’s long road trip awkward.
Current line: UNLV -2.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 8.4 | FPI projection: UNLV by 3.3
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North Texas at Army (noon, CBSSN)
In two home games, quarterback Drew Mestemaker and North Texas have overachieved against SP+ projections by a combined 77.6 points. In their lone road game, the Mean Green nearly lost to No. 122 Western Michigan. They’ll need to play far better in West Point against an Army team that sure looked like Army again in Week 2’s upset of Kansas State. Quarterback Cale Hellums rushed for 124 yards and led five drives of double-digit plays in Manhattan, Kansas, and if Hellums remains steady moving forward, Army will be a giant pain for any AAC team with CFP aspirations. Like North Texas.
Current line: North Texas -2.5 (flipped from Army -2.5) | SP+ projection: Army by 2.2 | FPI projection: UNT by 0.2
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Boise State at Air Force (7 p.m., CBSSN)
Boise State’s season-opening faceplant at USF, combined with an upcoming trip to Notre Dame, removed all margin for error. The Broncos will likely have to sweep Mountain West play to have any hope of a CFP bid. Of course, they’re projected favorites in every MWC game, and they still have massive talent with running back Sire Gaines, defensive tackle David Latu, edge rusher Jayden Virgin-Morgan and safety Ty Benefield.
Air Force has been a pain for BSU plenty of times, and the Falcons still dominate the ball. But the defense got torched by Utah State last week. Not an encouraging sign.
Current line: BSU -10.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 10.6 | FPI projection: BSU by 11.2
Week 4 chaos superfecta
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Our winning streak ended last week when Miami, Ole Miss (barely), Alabama and Auburn all won. But we’re still 2-for-3 on the young year, and now it’s time to move to 3-for-4!
Sticking with this week’s “Anatomy of a mid-major upset” theme, SP+ says there’s only a 38% chance that Washington (88% win probability against Washington State), Cal (80% against San Diego State), Colorado (75% against Wyoming) and BYU (72% against East Carolina) all win. Let’s take down a power-conference team!
Week 4 playlist
Here are some more games you should follow if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Iowa at Rutgers (8 p.m., Fox). In theory, few matchups scream “ROCK FIGHT!!” like Iowa-Rutgers, but Rutgers is ninth in points per possession and 83rd in points allowed per possession. Iowa has little big-play potential, but the Hawkeyes have moved the ball well against mortal defenses. So, maybe this one isn’t destined to finish 7-6 or 5-3 or something.
Current line: Iowa -2.5 | SP+ projection: Rutgers by 0.2 | FPI projection: Rutgers by 1.6
Tulsa at Oklahoma State (7:30 p.m., ESPN). At the moment, this is the last game in which OSU is a projected favorite. Either the Cowboys use this as a spectacular get-right game after their 66-point humiliation at Oregon in Week 2 — or there’s (more) pain on the horizon in Stillwater.
Current line: OSU -12.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 9.8 | FPI projection: OSU by 11.0
Early Saturday
SMU at TCU (noon, ESPN2). The Battle for the Iron Skillet! Few teams have underachieved against SP+ projections more than SMU through three games; maybe a rivalry game will wake up the Mustangs. If not, TCU’s big-play offense could have a lot of fun against an SMU defense that has given up loads of chunk plays.
Current line: TCU -6.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 7.4 | FPI projection: TCU by 4.7
UAB at No. 15 Tennessee (12:45 p.m., SECN). Trent Dilfer’s third UAB team has been the same “solid offense, no defense” squad as his past two. If Tennessee is still reeling from last week’s heartbreaker against Georgia, the Blazers might land a punch or two, but not 60 minutes’ worth.
Current line: Vols -38.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 37.0 | FPI projection: Vols by 36.4
Maryland at Wisconsin (noon, NBC). Per SP+, Wisconsin has only a 26% chance of reaching bowl eligibility this season, thanks to a schedule that already featured one top opponent and has five more to go. Lose to Maryland, and those odds fall to basically nil. At least it sounds like injured quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. — formerly a Terrapin — could be ready to go.
Current line: Wisconsin -9.5 (up from -7.5) | SP+ projection: Wisconsin by 0.4 | FPI projection: Wisconsin by 5.1
Saturday afternoon
No. 21 Michigan at Nebraska (3:30 p.m., CBS). Two years ago, Nebraska was on the wrong end of a 45-7 blowout loss to Michigan at home. Now, on paper, the Huskers have basically a 50-50 shot at taking down the Wolverines and scoring their biggest win since, what, 2015 (39-38 over No. 7 Michigan State)?
Current line: Michigan -1.5 | SP+ projection: Nebraska by 1.1 | FPI projection: Nebraska by 0.1
Purdue at No. 24 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., NBC). Well, Notre Dame, it’s time to start scoring some style points. After losses to Miami and Texas A&M, the Irish will have to win out to have serious hope of a CFP shot, and they might have only one more genuine marquee win opportunity — USC in Week 8, and that’s only if the Trojans maintain their current form. So, it’s time to wreck some opponents. (Purdue might have something to say about that. Especially if the Irish defense doesn’t start defending.)
Current line: ND -26.5 | SP+ projection: ND by 20.4 | FPI projection: ND by 20.3
NC State at Duke (4 p.m., ESPN2). Duke has allowed 18 gains of 20-plus yards (tied for 122nd nationally). NC State has given up eight of 30-plus (tied for 114th). With State’s Hollywood Smothers and Wesley Grimes and Duke’s Nate Sheppard and Cooper Barkate, this could be a great game to be an explosive skill corps guy.
Current line: Duke -3.5 | SP+ projection: NC State by 1.2 | FPI projection: NC State by 0.1
North Carolina at UCF (3:30 p.m., Fox). I have no idea about either of these teams. Bill Belichick’s UNC has collected itself since its embarrassing Week 1 loss to TCU, and UCF has been good enough in Scott Frost’s first two games back in town. But anything from a 35-point UNC win to a 35-point UCF win wouldn’t surprise me.
Current line: UCF -7.5 | SP+ projection: UCF by 7.0 | FPI projection: UCF by 11.2
Temple at No. 18 Georgia Tech (4:30 p.m., The CW). Temple can make some big plays and could make things messy if Georgia Tech lets its guard down after last week’s big win over Clemson. The Yellow Jackets haven’t given us any reason to think that’s possible, though. (By the way, they’re projected favorites in their next eight games.)
Current line: Tech -23.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 21.6 | FPI projection: Tech by 18.9
Oregon State at No. 6 Oregon (3 p.m., BTN). Three weeks into the season, Oregon has risen from seventh to second in SP+ while OSU has fallen from 75th to 107th. We will need to conjure a lot of Weird Rivalry Magic to make this one interesting.
Current line: Oregon -34.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 40.1 | FPI projection: Oregon by 36.3
Saturday evening
Arizona State at Baylor (7:30 p.m., Fox). Arizona State finally checked into the 2025 season, putting away a spirited Texas State team with relative ease last week. Now, the close-game festival that is Big 12 Play begins against a Baylor team that might have transformed its season with Week 2’s wild comeback win over SMU.
Current line: Baylor -2.5 | SP+ projection: Baylor by 3.8 | FPI projection: Baylor by 0.8
West Virginia at Kansas (6 p.m., FS1). Kansas got a week to recover after a blown lead and a rivalry loss to Missouri; WVU is riding the crest of a big comeback and a rivalry win over Pitt. Who’s ready to move past the emotion and start the rest of their season? I’m pretty sure Kansas is still good, and WVU’s offense might have finally begun its season late against Pitt.
Current line: Kansas -13.5 | SP+ projection: Kansas by 7.1 | FPI projection: Kansas by 9.7
BYU at East Carolina (7:30 p.m., ESPN2). ECU has overachieved against SP+ projections by nearly three touchdowns per game. The Pirates could be good. And they get to give BYU’s freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier his first big road test. But the Pirates will have to score on BYU’s defense, which is first in points per drive and yards per play.
Current line: BYU -6.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 9.5 | FPI projection: BYU by 6.0
Washington at Washington State (7:30 p.m., CBS). Washington State was impressive in its 36-13 runaway win over San Diego State in Week 2. Then, the Cougs went to North Texas and got absolutely blasted 59-10. Week 2 Wazzu and a torrid Martin Stadium would make this awfully tricky for Washington. Week 3 Wazzu … would not.
Current line: UW -20.5 | SP+ projection: UW by 18.6 | FPI projection: UW by 21.0
Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech (7:30 p.m., ESPN+). From 2021 through 2024, each of these proud old mid-major programs went 14-35 with an SP+ ranking of about 112.5. Now, both are 2-1 with at least a 60% chance of bowl eligibility. Can Southern Miss quarterback Braylon Braxton engineer enough points on a Tech defense allowing 12.3 points per game?
Current line: Tech -3.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 7.8 | FPI projection: Tech by 3.7
Late Saturday
Michigan State at No. 25 USC (11 p.m., Fox). A kickoff at 11 p.m. ET for a team based in Eastern Time? Cool. Makes perfect sense. Anyway, USC is averaging 55 points per game and 9.6 yards per play, and Michigan State has topped 40 points for two straight games. I don’t think the Spartans have the defense to make this a game for 60 minutes, but this could have Pac-12 After Dark vibes for a while.
Current line: USC -17.5 (up from -14.5) | SP+ projection: USC by 17.7 | FPI projection: USC by 24.2
California at San Diego State (10:30 p.m., CBSSN). Quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and Cal are 3-0 and projected favorites in the next six games. But they’re 94th in third-down conversion rate, and SDSU’s defense ranks seventh. If the Aztecs can score a bit (not a given), they could make this one tricky.
Current line: Cal -12.5 | SP+ projection: Cal by 13.2 | FPI projection: Cal by 10.9
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
Division III: No. 16 Wisconsin-Whitewater at No. 6 Mary Hardin-Baylor (noon, local streaming). These programs lorded over Division III for nearly 15 years before getting surpassed by North Central. Both are still talented and dangerous, and they’re meeting for the seventh straight season (not including 2020). UWW has produced a 200-yard rusher in each of its first two games, but a third straight, against the Crusaders’ defense, would be a surprise.
SP+ projection: Whitewater by 1.2
Division III: No. 3 Johns Hopkins at No. 4 Susquehanna (1 p.m., FloFootball). The second D-III game on the list is even bigger: JHU backed up its top-five standing with a 27-13 win over No. 20 John Carroll last week and boasts the second-best defense in D-III, per SP+. Susquehanna, meanwhile, ranks fifth on offense. It might be North Central vs. The Field in D-III, but either of these teams could make a deep playoff run.
SP+ projection: Susquehanna by 0.3
FCS: No. 23 New Hampshire at Dartmouth (1 p.m., ESPN+). An incredibly interesting Ivy League season finally opens Saturday: The league champ will participate in the FCS playoffs for the first time, and at first glance, it looks like we have a three-team race among Harvard, Yale and a Dartmouth team that gets an immediate shot at a résumé win of sorts. UNH nearly beat Ball State last week — it was actually a bit of an upset that the Wildcats didn’t — and boasts one of the stingier defenses the Big Green attack will see all season.
SP+ projection: Dartmouth by 1.7
(One game you shouldn’t track? Rio Grande at Ferris State. That’s the second-worst team in NAIA, per SP+ — pronounced “Ry-Oh Grand” and located in the same Ohio town as the first Bob Evans restaurant — facing the class of Division II. SP+ projects Ferris State as a tidy 97.2-point favorite. The final score will be whatever the Bulldogs want it to be. If morbid curiosity gets the best of you, it kicks off at 3 p.m. on FloFootball.)
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Sports
All the news, flips and top moments from the early signing day
Published
13 hours agoon
December 4, 2025By
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ESPN staffDec 3, 2025, 06:28 PM ET
College football’s early signing period started Wednesday and runs until Friday. Class of 2026 high school recruits who signed have locked into the college of their choice for at least the next year.
The drama started early when Vanderbilt flipped five-star QB Jared Curtis from Georgia on Tuesday night. Defensive end Jordan Carter (No. 57 overall) was the highest-ranked uncommitted recruit. He chose Tennessee over Auburn and Georgia Tech on Wednesday. Virginia Tech was a big mover of the day, adding 11 players who were formerly in James Franklin’s class at Penn State. USC added to its top-ranked class by flipping Kayden Dixon-Wyatt from Ohio State. Texas has the most five-star signings of any team, headlined by QB Dia Bell.
If a prospect doesn’t sign a national letter of intent by Friday, the next national signing day for this cycle begins Feb. 4.
We tracked all the news, analysis and more throughout Wednesday.
More: Class rankings: Top 75 | How the five-stars fit

Sports
Early signing day 2026 takeaways: Five-star hauls, winners and CFP hopes
Published
13 hours agoon
December 4, 2025By
admin

College football’s early signing period opened Wednesday with much of the 2026 recruiting class committed. That added some extra drama for those teams chasing last-minute additions and flips.
Coaching changes weighed heavily on the end of this cycle with Virginia Tech adding eight commitments since James Franklin’s hiring. Auburn and Arkansas each saw movement in their classes following their coach hirings Sunday.
Here’s a look at the winners, the programs that missed out Wednesday and the questions that still loom over the 2026 cycle after more than 12 months of recruiting played out in the span of 12 hours:
Jump to: Texas’ haul | Carousel impact
CFP boost | Who has overachieved | Impact QBs

Texas’ five-star haul is impressive
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A few teams landed multiple five-star prospects, but none has more than the Longhorns. The class fills needs but also has extremely talented players at impact positions.
On defense, linebacker Tyler Atkinson (No. 17 overall) has a combination of skills and production that can’t be ignored. He recorded 550 tackles in his prep career and had three double-digit sack seasons. He’s a versatile and explosive defender whether he’s rushing off the edge or in coverage. He is joined by defensive end Richard Wesley, No. 8 overall. After the Longhorns leaned some on the transfer portal this past offseason to retool their defensive line, Wesley will be a key player who projects to be versatile within their front, with the strength and heavy hands to set the edge and the ability to slide inside and expose mismatches with his quickness.
Offensively, QB Dia Bell, the sixth overall prospect, might be the most well-rounded, having been a multiyear starter and consistently playing at a high level of competition. While he is not a true dual threat, he can create second chances and be effective when asked to run. As a passer, his basketball background has helped develop his pocket movement and he has good touch on his deep ball. In running back Derrek Cooper, Texas has its future replacement for Quintrevion Wisner. Cooper’s initial impact could be limited but he brings similar attributes, with the ability to be a 1,000-yard rushing threat and rank among UT’s most productive pass catchers. Again, Texas has set itself up to replace a productive player with a prospect with arguably even greater impact ability. — Craig Haubert
Coaching changes hurt Auburn, Penn State and Oklahoma State
Traditionally, in-season firings tend to be the first domino to a class implosion. Such moves didn’t burn Florida and LSU on the 2026 recruiting trail. But amid a historic coaching carousel, the recruiting classes at Auburn, Penn State and Oklahoma State were among those that felt the fullest force of their school’s respective coaching changes in recent months.
Auburn’s latest class held firm in the weeks after the Tigers fired Hugh Freeze on Nov. 2. In fact, four of the program’s five decommitments since then occurred only after Auburn hired Alex Golesh from South Florida on Sunday. But the departures themselves were significant. Four-star safety Bralan Womack (No. 39 overall), the Tigers’ top-ranked 2026 commit, and quarterback Peyton Falzone (No. 225) each pulled their pledges on Monday. And while signatures from four-star wide receiver Jase Mathews (No. 258 overall) and a trio of ESPN 300 linebackers still give Auburn a foundation of 2026 talent, the Tigers’ incoming class lacks starpower.
Defensive tackle Danny Beale (No. 108 overall) and running back Kaydin Jones (No. 25 RB) marked Oklahoma State’s star additions in a surprisingly strong start to the 2026 cycle. Both left the Cowboys’ class between Mike Gundy’s September departure and the arrival of North Texas coach Eric Morris on Nov. 25. Following another series of decommittments over the past week-and-a-half, Morris is set to begin his rebuild in Stillwater with a thin class of early signees.
The fall recruiting misfortunes of Auburn and Oklahoma State, however, look tame next to the developments that have unfolded around Penn State’s 2026 class since mid-October.
As of Wednesday morning, only two commits remained in a Nittany Lions class that ranked 17th nationally when the school fired coach James Franklin on Oct. 12. Among the high-profile departures from Penn State since then: offensive tackle Kevin Brown (No. 78), wide receiver Davion Brown (No. 109), running back Messiah Mickens (No. 141) and longtime quarterback pledge Troy Huhn (No. 198). To add insult to injury, 10 of the Nittany Lions’ 21 total decommitments ultimately landed with Franklin at Virginia Tech, all signing with a surging Hokies 2026 Wednesday while Penn State’s coaching job still sits vacant in early December. — Eli Lederman
Which teams improved their CFP chances?
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35 commitments
ESPN 300 commits: 18, two five-stars
USC is getting close and just lost a game at Oregon that would have likely thrust it into the CFP in 2025. The class is loaded top to bottom, even including juco prospects. To take the next step, though, the Trojans must continue to beef up the trenches. They pulled four-star defensive tackle Jaimeon Winfield out of Texas, landed in-state defensive end Simote Katoanga and traveled to Utah to snag offensive lineman Esun Tafa. To further bolster the offensive line, the Trojans landed Keenyi Pepe out of IMG Academy. He has great size at 6-foot-7 and 320 pounds but is light on his feet as well as physical and can become a standout tackle. Five-star cornerback Elbert Hill headlines the skill-position players. Hill possesses elite speed, having been measured at over 22 mph in game play.
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25 commitments
ESPN 300 commits: 12, one five-star
Michigan has quietly put together a very successful season, winning five games in a row prior to a loss to Ohio State despite multiple offensive injuries at running back and a true freshman QB in Bryce Underwood. This class features six players who rank in the top 10 at their respective position. Michigan bolstered its backfield by landing No. 2 running back Savion Hiter, a runner with a nice blend of size (6 feet, 200 pounds), power and speed who can also catch the ball out of the backfield. After losing two defensive linemen in the first round of the NFL draft, Michigan added several to this class, including four-stars Titan Davis, McHale Blade and Tariq Boney. Michigan has also received a commitment from five-star Carter Meadows, a rangy edge defender who can affect the QB. — Tom Luginbill
Which teams have overachieved?
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18 commitments: one five-star, 17 three-stars
Coach Willie Fritz has made huge strides in his second season at Houston and recruiting has picked up as a result.
The class has been headlined for several months by five-star quarterback Keisean Henderson, the No. 1 dual-threat QB in the country. Henderson could become a program-defining prospect that thrusts the Cougars into Big 12 championship contenders for years to come. Henderson has also been a loyal commitment throughout the process despite obvious overtures by other bigger programs to flip him. He’s dynamic as a runner and a gamer as a passer.
UH’s class also features the sixth-ranked tight end in the country in Jaivion Martin. The 250-pounder is a well-rounded blocker and receiver who can play as an inline in the run game. He also competes in track and field. The Cougars have also nabbed a top-25 athlete in Paris Melvin, who could project at cornerback or wide receiver and is a dangerous return man who ran a 10.86 100m in the spring of 2025. One of the more underrated running back prospects in the class is John Hebert, a Ryan Switzer-type scatback/utility weapon. He ran a 4.54 40-yard laser timed in the spring and has posted a max speed of 21.3 mph.
This class is full of high-end three-star prospects, and perhaps no coach in the country has a better track record of developing prospects than Fritz.
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21 commitments: six four-stars
SMU is now running with the big dogs not only on the field, but in recruiting circles as well. The Mustangs have added several offensive linemen, no bigger than Sam Utu, an ESPN 300 player with tackle athleticism and guard power. The Mustangs also picked up Evan Goodwin, a massive presence at 6-7 and 320 pounds, Evan Goodwin, a massive presence at 6-7 and 320 pounds, and in-state guard Drew Evers, a thickly built and strong blocker who can latch on and control defenders. Rhett Lashley knows the trenches are what’s going to elevate the program.
Capitalizing on the rich talent base in Texas, SMU has added several in-state prospects, including SC Next 300 back Christian Rhodes. Rhodes, an explosive runner who has been recorded hitting better than 21 mph max speed in game play, also brings a physical running style at 6-1, 200 pounds. High three-star Aljour Miles II, a lengthy receiver who has good quickness and body control, is another nice in-state addition. Another receiving target with big-play potential, Jakai Anderson, was pulled out of Louisiana. Not quite as big a target, he brings a good blend of speed and elusiveness and could also be productive in the return game.
On defense, defensive end Hudson Woods shows some savvy as a pass rusher, with active hands and good bend. Linebacker Kenneth Goodwin out of California is a versatile, physical defender who can rush the passer.
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12 commitments: six ESPN 300 prospects, eight total four-stars
Despite the firing of coach Hugh Freeze and some late defectors, this class still has major talent upgrades committed, particularly on defense. The class is not large, but it is stacked with overall top-end talent. There are four players ranked within the top 11 players in the country at their respective position and two within the top three.
Adam Balogoun-Ali is the country’s No. 1 inside linebacker and also happens to have significant growth upside with his lengthy frame. He can play inside and on the outside as an edge rusher and excels in space due to his speed and agility. The Tigers also have a commitment from the No. 3 inside linebacker in the class, Shadarius Toodle. Toodle is just a step behind Balogoun-Ali in terms of overall speed and is a downhill gap plugger in the middle of the field.
New head coach Alex Golesh has a good foundation to head into the dead period with and attack the transfer portal in January for more additions. — Luginbill
These 2026 QBs could start early
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Jake Fette, Arizona State Sun Devils: Assuming Sam Leavitt goes in the portal, Fette, the No. 4-ranked dual threat, brings a lot of great traits to the Sun Devils offense. He’s super athletic and mobile, with the field vision to keep his eyes downfield while on the move. Fette is very similar to Leavitt in stressing defenses with his arms and legs. Fette also has good touch and anticipation on short to midrange throws. Coach Kenny Dillingham will challenge defenses schematically with a lot of shifts, motions and backfield action that will maximize Fette’s dynamic skill set in and outside the pocket.
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Oscar Rios, Arizona Wildcats: Rios is the Wildcats’ highest-rated pocket passer signee in the ESPN 300 era. How immediate the impact depends on whether Noah Fifita returns for the 2026 season. If Fifita chooses to return, Rios could redshirt as a true freshman and be the favorite to become the starter in 2027. Rios’ quick release and great arm strength should lead to big numbers under coordinator Seth Doege in Tucson. — Billy Tucker
Sports
Inside the final days of Lane Kiffin’s time at Ole Miss and his move to LSU
Published
13 hours agoon
December 3, 2025By
admin

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Mark SchlabachDec 3, 2025, 01:30 PM ET
Close- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
OXFORD, Miss. — Last month, as some of the biggest college football brands pursued Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin, a staff member polled the team’s assistant coaches about where they wanted to be in the 2026 season.
The coaches discussed four options: Remain at Ole Miss, where they had built a legitimate College Football Playoff contender; leave for SEC rivals Florida or LSU; or take over Florida State, which according to people with knowledge of the search, was making a stealth move to poach Kiffin.
The entire defensive coaching staff, led by coordinator Pete Golding, preferred to stay at Ole Miss, which was on the verge of its first 11-win regular season and CFP appearance, two sources told ESPN.
All but one offensive assistant wanted to leave for either Florida or LSU, which historically had enjoyed more success than Ole Miss but had fired their coaches after their teams struggled this season.
That meeting was indicative of the divided loyalties and uncertainty that defined one of the most compelling coaching searches in college football history, which threatened to not only derail the Rebels’ historic season but also captivated fans on three SEC campuses and around the country.
On Sunday, after days of mounting tension and uncertainty, Kiffin finally agreed to become LSU’s coach, abandoning an Ole Miss team that is 11-1 and holds the No. 6 spot in the CFP selection committee’s latest rankings.
Even worse for many Ole Miss fans, Kiffin departed for a program they consider its fiercest rival in the SEC.
“You’re not leaving to coach the Giants or the Dolphins or the Buckeyes,” a source familiar with the situation told ESPN. “You’re talking about going to a place that we will play [each of the next four seasons].”
BY THE TIME the Rebels traveled to play rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl on Friday, a pall had settled over the Ole Miss program.
Florida and LSU had ramped up their courtships of Kiffin, who had transformed Ole Miss from a midtier SEC program to one of the best in the FBS. The Rebels had gone 54-19 under Kiffin, winning 10 or more games in four of the past five seasons. Only blue bloods Alabama and Georgia had more success in the league since Kiffin arrived.
Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin interviewed Kiffin in Oxford in early November — a bold move behind enemy lines to get an edge on the most coveted candidate in the coaching carousel, two Florida sources told ESPN. Gators fans, who had watched their team limp to losing records in four of the past five seasons, clearly favored Kiffin.
Years ago, Kiffin wanted Florida, but Stricklin hired Billy Napier, then the coach at Louisiana, in November 2021. Kiffin’s off-field behavior made Napier the safer option, despite the Rebels’ 10-3 campaign that season, in which they defeated nationally ranked Arkansas and Texas A&M.
The Gators went 22-23 in three-plus seasons under Napier, and he was fired Oct. 19 after they struggled to a 3-4 start.
It wasn’t the first time Kiffin had been rebuffed by the Gators. After Kiffin was fired as USC‘s coach five games into the 2013 season — the Trojans dismissed him in a private terminal at Los Angeles International Airport following an ugly 62-41 loss at Arizona State — then-Florida coach Will Muschamp sought to hire Kiffin as his offensive coordinator the next season. However, Muschamp was told by UF officials that the SEC office wouldn’t allow him to bring in Kiffin, according to two people familiar with the situation, and Alabama’s Nick Saban hired Kiffin a couple of weeks later.
Early on, Ole Miss officials believed Florida might be the biggest threat to lure Kiffin away because of his family’s connection to the Gators. His ex-wife, Layla, had moved to Oxford earlier this year to be closer to two of her children: Knox, a sophomore at Oxford High School, and Landry, a junior at Ole Miss. Layla Kiffin’s father, John Reaves, was a star quarterback for the Gators from 1969 to 1971 and was later an assistant under legendary coach Steve Spurrier.
However, the Florida opening became Kiffin’s second choice, sources close to him told ESPN, once LSU fired Brian Kelly on Oct. 26, a day after the Tigers lost to Texas A&M 49-25 at home. While Kiffin was reportedly turned off by Stricklin’s involvement in the Florida program, he didn’t seem overly concerned about the political environment at LSU.
Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry was highly critical of athletic director Scott Woodward for leaving LSU on the hook for a $54 million buyout when Kelly was fired. Woodward resigned under pressure Oct. 30 and was replaced by longtime LSU administrator Verge Ausberry.
During his introductory news conference Monday, Kiffin revealed he had a “unique, great call with Governor Landry” during LSU’s recruitment of him.
“I could feel his passion and energy for the state of Louisiana and for LSU football,” Kiffin said.
LSU became more attractive to Kiffin once Ausberry was promoted, sources told ESPN. Saban, who guided the Tigers to the 2003 national championship and helped Kiffin resurrect his career when he brought him on as Alabama’s offensive coordinator from 2014 to 2016, was complementary of Ausberry.
LSU brass interviewed Kiffin sometime in mid-November. On Monday, Ausberry said the initial interview with Kiffin lasted less than 90 minutes. When Ausberry called other LSU officials to pick him up, they were like, “Y’all finish, already?”
“It wasn’t a three- or four-hour meeting,” Ausberry said. “[Former LSU baseball coach and athletic director] Skip Bertman taught me that. Nick Saban taught me that you don’t ask great coaches, ‘What you gonna do on third-and-8? Tell me about your offensive game plan, tell me about your defense, tell me about who you’re gonna hire.’
“Here, it’s like, ‘What do you need to be successful? We want you to be our coach here. What do you expect from me as athletic director? What do you expect from LSU, and do you want to be at LSU?’ And that was pretty much the conversation.”
Ausberry recalled working under Bertman when the Tigers hired Oklahoma State‘s Les Miles before the 2005 football season. Bertman’s teams won five College World Series titles and seven SEC championships during his 18 seasons as coach from 1984 to 2001.
“Hiring the football coach at LSU is the biggest thing in the state of Louisiana,” Ausberry told Bertman. “It’s the biggest job. I said, ‘If you hire the wrong one, Coach Bertman, all your national championships, all your great baseball programs, that’s going to be your legacy.’
“So, I thought that this would be my legacy at LSU, and that I have to get the right person to be the head coach of LSU.”
At the same time, Florida State athletic director Michael Alford also was wooing Kiffin behind the scenes, sources familiar with the search told ESPN. Kiffin and Alford had worked together at USC — Alford as the Trojans’ associate AD from 2000 to 2003 and Kiffin as Pete Carroll’s tight ends/wide receivers coach from 2001 to 2003. But Florida State hadn’t fired embattled coach Mike Norvell, whose program had slipped dramatically after going 13-1 and winning an ACC title in 2023. The Seminoles cratered last season, going 2-10, followed by a 5-7 mark this year.
The Seminoles would have owed Norvell about $54 million if they fired him without cause, plus another $18 million to pay off his assistants.
Hiring Kiffin, the hottest coach on the market, might have allowed Alford to justify spending $72 million to dismiss Norvell and his staff. The Seminoles’ recruitment of Kiffin continued into the middle of November, according to the sources. But after it became clear Kiffin wasn’t coming, FSU announced Nov. 23 that Norvell would return for a seventh season.
Ausberry said he worked tirelessly to keep LSU’s courtship of Kiffin under wraps, even though there was plenty of speculation that the Tigers wanted him.
On Nov. 17, fans using online flight trackers discovered that LSU had flown a jet to Oxford and back. Layla Kiffin and other family members visited Baton Rouge that day. She visited Gainesville, Florida, the day before with her son and Lane’s brother Chris’ son.
“They had to really see Baton Rouge,” Ausberry said. “That was one of the big things, because her father was an All-American at the University of Florida, and a coach [and] great NFL player, and those are things that we were a little afraid of. That’s that pull of Gainesville, and then she came to Baton Rouge.”
Kiffin’s family visits to rival SEC campuses — and the fact that they became so public — were like a slap in the face to many Ole Miss fans, who believed their coach was trolling them.
Kiffin was upset about what Rebels fans were saying about him, but an Ole Miss source described the development as a “self-inflicted wound.”
“What do you expect when your family flies to visit two of our competitors?” the Ole Miss source said.
A WEEK BEFORE the Egg Bowl, Kiffin met with Ole Miss athletic director Keith Carter and chancellor Glenn Boyce, as pressure was reaching a tipping point between the sides. Carter and Boyce wanted Kiffin to make a decision and sign a lengthy contract extension that would have made him one of the highest-paid coaches in the sport.
Ole Miss officials had assured Kiffin it could match anything Florida and LSU were offering in terms of revenue sharing and NIL, at least under current NCAA rules.
Kiffin wasn’t ready to commit, however, and informed Boyce and Carter that he hadn’t made up his mind. Kiffin didn’t think it was fair that he had to decide at that point because Ole Miss hadn’t even finished the regular season, sources close to the coach told ESPN.
“This is what’s wrong with the whole system,” a source close to Kiffin told ESPN. “Because this is another example of how nobody’s been in charge of anything in college football. Because if it was the NFL, you couldn’t talk to anybody until after the playoffs. It’s a horrible system.”
Boyce and Carter explored potential ways to keep him from coaching in the Egg Bowl — and they made it clear that he wouldn’t coach in the CFP if he accepted a job at Florida or LSU, Ole Miss sources told ESPN.
Cooler heads prevailed, and the sides agreed that the Rebels needed to focus on beating Mississippi State and potentially securing a CFP first-round home game, which would be lucrative for both Ole Miss and Oxford.
“[Kiffin] was looking for a reason to leave,” an Ole Miss source told ESPN. “When Keith kind of put him on the clock, I think that kind of changed the narrative, changed the landscape a little bit.”
Carter released a statement Nov. 21 saying he’d had “many pointed and positive conversations” with Kiffin regarding his future at Ole Miss and that he expected a decision from his coach the day after the Egg Bowl.
By that point, many Ole Miss fans were fed up with the drama. One prominent booster told ESPN this week he’d already informed the athletic department that if Kiffin returned, he wouldn’t continue contributing money to the program.
“The fan base went from wanting to build a statue for him to wanting to run him out of town,” the booster said.
WHEN THE EGG BOWL finally arrived Friday, there was an overwhelming sense that Kiffin was coaching his last game at Ole Miss. There was plenty of drama off the field, as well.
Before kickoff in Starkville, Kiffin told ESPN that Mississippi State students broke into the Rebels locker room at Davis Wade Stadium, stealing the jerseys of quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and other players.
Mississippi State officials had promised to put security guards outside the locker room but failed to do so, and the thieves broke in again, Kiffin said. The Rebels had captured the thefts on hidden cameras and turned the video over to police.
The Rebels ran away from the Bulldogs in the second half of a 38-19 victory. As Kiffin celebrated with players for the last time, Mississippi State officials blared the hit song from The Clash, “Should I Stay or Should I Go,” over the stadium speakers.
As Kiffin walked off the field, he embraced Boyce. Then he turned his attention to Ben Garrett, a reporter for On3. Kiffin confronted Garrett for using lyrics from a rap song to describe his unwillingness to commit to Ole Miss during a podcast: “Can’t turn a h- into a housewife. H-s don’t act right.”
Their argument continued in Kiffin’s postgame news conference, with Kiffin calling Garrett’s actions “bush league.”
“I don’t even know your name,” Kiffin told the reporter, a tactic he sometimes uses with staff members when he’s upset.
Garrett told ESPN that Kiffin called him the next day to apologize — and called him by his name. A few hours later, Kiffin texted Garrett a meme of Kiffin wearing a yellow-and-purple hat with the word “h-” on it.
AS COLLEGE FOOTBALL fans turned their attention to Saturday’s rivalry games, the Ole Miss campus was mostly quiet. Students were away for the Thanksgiving break, and Kiffin spent the morning with his family at a hot yoga class.
At one point, he assembled his coaching staff at the Manning Center to review film of Georgia, in case Alabama lost to Auburn in the Iron Bowl, which would have put the Rebels in the SEC championship game.
Around 6 p.m. ET, Kiffin met with Carter at the chancellor’s home on campus. During the nearly two-hour meeting, Kiffin broke the news that he was leaving for LSU. However, Kiffin continued to lobby his AD to allow him to coach the Rebels in the CFP.
“[Kiffin] had an opportunity to coach in the playoff, and that would have been to stay at Ole Miss, and he chose not to do that,” Carter told ESPN. “That’s his choice, and I respect that choice. But then we had to make a choice, and talking with the team and spending time with them, I think they know they need coaches to make a playoff run.
“I think they were very concerned about their position coaches and those types of things. But I think they understood when someone takes a job at another place — and not only another place but one of our rivals and a team that will be playing in our stadium next year — I think that that’s something that nobody feels comfortable with.”
Carter told ESPN that he’d been weighing whether to allow Kiffin to coach in the SEC championship game because of the short turnaround. When it became apparent that Boyce and Carter weren’t going to budge on their position about the CFP, according to Ole Miss sources, Kiffin threatened to take his entire offensive coaching staff with him to LSU.
It was his last leverage chip in a tense standoff to coach in the postseason. Ole Miss staff members confirmed to ESPN that Kiffin told his assistants that if they didn’t go to LSU with him on Sunday, they wouldn’t have a job with him in the future.
By the time LSU administrators landed in Baton Rouge following the Tigers’ 17-13 loss at Oklahoma on Saturday, Kiffin’s agent, Jimmy Sexton, had been frantically trying to reach Ausberry. When the men finally connected, Sexton delivered the news that Kiffin was ready to take the LSU job.
The outcome of the Iron Bowl might have determined whether the Tigers would have to wait another week to introduce their new coach. Auburn rallied to tie the score late in the fourth quarter, but Alabama went ahead 27-20 with 3:50 to play.
After Alabama recovered a fumble at its 20-yard line with 33 seconds left, Kiffin’s tenure at Ole Miss was over.
“It’s a tough situation,” Ausberry said. “He loved that place. We were thinking about that timeline. Also, I got kind of nervous the night when Auburn tied Alabama in that game. Now, it might push us back a week, but we were comfortable.”
In fact, Ausberry said LSU didn’t have a problem with Kiffin coaching the Rebels in the CFP, as long as he signed his contract with the Tigers. Kiffin said in a statement announcing his departure that Carter wouldn’t allow him to coach, and he added that he was willing to put guardrails in place to protect Ole Miss but didn’t specify what they would be.
“It’s great,” Ausberry said. “It’s great publicity for our institution. You have a coach, coaching out there, coaching [in the] playoff, playing for a national championship, and being the next coach of LSU, so we had no problems with that.”
0:54
Lane Kiffin respects Ole Miss’ decision to not have him coach in CFP
New LSU coach Lane Kiffin reflects on the process that led to Ole Miss not allowing him to coach the Rebels in the College Football Playoff.
That was exactly the situation Ole Miss officials wanted to avoid — its historic CFP run becoming a monthlong infomercial for LSU’s next coach. They also didn’t want Kiffin coaching their players once he left. The transfer portal opens Jan. 2, and it would have given Kiffin more time to potentially recruit the Rebels’ best players.
“The players were concerned about commitment and those types of things,” Carter said. “[With] this playoff run, we plan on this being a four-, five-, six-week thing. There’s just no way that that’s possible. I know that the scheduling and the timing and all that stuff is a part of the equation. But I’m just not sure there was any plan that was going to work that would allow the head coach of a rival school to be in your building and coaching your guys. We had to stand up for our program and what we thought was best.”
Late Saturday night, ESPN reported that Kiffin was signing a seven-year contract with LSU. A team meeting was scheduled for 10 a.m. ET Sunday, when Kiffin would address the Rebels for the final time.
ON SUNDAY, the meeting was pushed back to 2 p.m. ET, as Ole Miss officials scrambled to figure out which assistants were leaving and staying. The Rebels also were working to name an interim coach. Pete Golding would end up being hired as Kiffin’s permanent replacement before the team meeting.
“I got back to the office and said, ‘You know what? We’ve got a great solution to all this. Somebody that’s right here under our nose, that’s going to be the next great coach. He can help us hold this staff together,'” Carter said.
Kiffin encouraged Carter to meet with the team’s leadership council, according to Ole Miss sources, telling him that he wasn’t going to like what he would hear. But instead of telling Carter the team wanted Kiffin to coach in the CFP, the players said they were more worried about their position coaches staying and had grown tired of the drama surrounding Kiffin.
After the 30-minute meeting with Carter, the leadership council also met with Kiffin, Ole Miss sources told ESPN.
In response to the statement Kiffin issued announcing his decision, in which he claimed the players wanted him “to keep coaching them,” Rebels starting center Brycen Sanders, a member of the leadership council, posted on X on Tuesday: “I think everyone that was in that room would disagree.”
Linebacker Suntarine Perkins, another member of the council, added on X: “That was not the message you said in the meeting room. Everybody that was in there can vouch on this.”
Meanwhile, Layla Kiffin drove a white Mercedes into the parking lot behind the building about an hour before the scheduled team meeting. Golding paced on a sidewalk, talking on a cellphone for more than 15 minutes.
Lane Kiffin was escorted out of the Manning Center 10 minutes before Ole Miss players met with Carter, Boyce and Golding.
There were a few dozen fans and reporters gathered outside the building. Officers in three police cruisers were parked nearby, in case things got out of hand, as they did when Kiffin left Tennessee after only one season in January 2010. UT students burned couches and nearly rioted the night of his stunning departure.
As Kiffin and his son drove out of the parking lot around 1:45 p.m. ET, an Ole Miss student approached his black SUV and made an obscene gesture. It wasn’t the last one Kiffin would see that day.
A few minutes later, Ole Miss players started to file out of the Manning Center. One of them yelled, “It’s the Pete Golding era!”
By then, two planes owned by an LSU booster had been dispatched to pick up Kiffin, his family and the staff members who were joining him in Baton Rouge. The original rendezvous point was Tupelo, Mississippi, which is more than 50 miles from the Ole Miss campus.
On the way to Mississippi, someone told Ausberry that the flight was being diverted to Oxford’s airport.
“We’re going where? Oxford?” Ausberry said. “They’ll be shooting missiles at us.”
A few hundred Ole Miss fans lined the fences of the runway of University-Oxford Airport when the two planes landed. They booed the pilots, who could only laugh and wave. When someone asked Ausberry if he needed to use the restroom in the airport terminal, he said, “That’s OK, I’ll hold it.”
One by one, the Ole Miss assistants who were joining Kiffin arrived at the airport and were escorted to the planes in a black SUV. The fans booed their disapproval at offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr., passing game coordinator/receivers coach George McDonald and co-offensive coordinator/tight ends coach Joe Cox, among others. (LSU announced Tuesday that Weis will return to Ole Miss for the CFP.)
Layla Kiffin was booed loudly when she drove her Mercedes onto the runway.
“He is what we thought he was,” said Ole Miss graduate Taylor Cauthen, who stood along the fence. “He was gonna win, and we knew how he was gonna leave. I mean, it’s not surprising to anybody with any sense. He was gonna win games, and he was gonna leave, and it was gonna be bad.”
Cauthen, who moved back to Oxford in July, said Kiffin hijacked the Rebels’ historic season and turned it into a soap opera about him.
“He’s taken it from us,” Cauthen said. “He made it all about him. I think he wakes up every morning, looks at himself in the mirror, and tells himself he loves him. I think that’s who he cares about most. I think he cares about himself more than anything on this earth, including his family.”
Joe Ignatius, an Ole Miss baseball player from 1992 to 1996, watched in disbelief as Kiffin and his assistants left Oxford like diplomats fleeing a foreign country.
“I feel naive thinking it wouldn’t happen to us,” Ignatius said. “It just didn’t have to go this way. It could have been six great years going your way, thanks for what you did. But leopards don’t change their spots. And I got fooled, so not what I expected.”
Ignatius said he felt the worst for his son, Bodacious, an eight-grader, who grew to love the Ole Miss football team.
Kiffin, along with his son, was the last person to arrive at the airport. By then, police were turning away fans because the parking lots were full. Kiffin used an auxiliary entrance, which had fire trucks and firefighters blocking the road to keep fans away. He was escorted down the runway by a state trooper and another emergency vehicle.
Once Kiffin pulled his SUV next to the plane, the Ole Miss fans gave him a full-throated sendoff. He was embraced by Ausberry, who was wearing a purple shirt, and climbed the jet’s stairs. There was no farewell wave to the fans.
“He got on that plane and was like, ‘Let’s go. I’m ready,'” Ausberry said.
Only a few hours later, defensive tackle Lamar Brown of Baton Rouge, an LSU commit and the No. 1 player in the 2026 class according to ESPN’s recruiting rankings, posted a photo with Kiffin on X with the caption, “Welcome home.”
During a news conference at LSU on Monday, Kiffin said he wasn’t surprised by the reaction of Ole Miss fans when he left.
“They ain’t going to the airport and driving from all over, OK, to say those things and yell those things and try to run you off the road if you were doing bad,” Kiffin said. “Time heals a lot of things, and having gone through this in this conference before, I sure hope that happens.”
Kiffin won’t have to wait long to find out. The Tigers are scheduled to open SEC play at Ole Miss next season.
On Monday at the Po-Boy Express in Baton Rouge, LSU fan Remi Brignac, his son Beau and their friend Jay Olinde were discussing the program’s future with Kiffin.
“We’re optimistic for change,” Remi said. “Finally got an offensive mind.”
Olinde, meanwhile, isn’t expecting a long-term marriage.
“I believe that he will bring the program back to where we expect it to be in Baton Rouge,” Olinde said. “But I also believe that as soon as he gets that done, he’ll leave for the NFL, coaching the Dallas Cowboys.”
ESPN’s Dave Wilson contributed to this report
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