The biggest success — and biggest failure — for all 30 MLB teams this season
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Bradford Doolittle
Despite a bumpier-than-expected path, the Los Angeles Dodgers might still repeat as World Series champions, becoming the first team to do so since the New York Yankees of the late 1990s. If that comes to pass, few would be surprised. At the same time, based on what we’ve seen since Opening Day, few would be surprised, also, if they fall.
Thus the Dodgers’ season can’t yet be labeled a success or a failure. If the Dodgers win another title, that’s an obvious success. Failure is a little harder to define, but consider that L.A. is one of five teams on pace to finish more than 10 games under their preseason baseline forecast. They’re also leading the tough National League West. Success or failure?
The answer is complicated. Baseball is the most quantifiable and projectable of the major sports, and forecasts are invaluable in setting our expectations for what might happen, and how to react to what actually comes to pass. Yet baseball is also paradoxically and wonderfully unpredictable.
Teams and pundits alike enter the season with a good idea of what each club’s strengths and weaknesses are, yet those observations tend to fly out the window when confronted by the reality of an actual season.
Using preseason expectations as our guide, we’re going to identify the biggest success — and failure — for all 30 teams. Plan and project all you want. In the end, the fates will have their way.
Jump to a team:
AL East: BAL | BOS | NYY | TB | TOR
AL Central: CHW | CLE | DET | KC | MIN
AL West: ATH | HOU | LAA | SEA | TEX
NL East: ATL | MIA | NYM | PHI | WSH
NL Central: CHC | CIN | MIL | PIT | STL
NL West: ARI | COL | LAD | SD | SF
Biggest success: Geraldo Perdomo
Most of the good news for Arizona this season has been on the position player side, led by a career year for Perdomo. After signing a four-year extension that doesn’t kick in until next year, the 25-year-old went out and put up the best season by a shortstop in franchise history. Already a defensive standout, Perdomo entered this season with 14 career home runs. This year, he has 19 and is on pace to drive in 100 runs. He also might get to 100 runs scored and 30 steals. It has been an MVP-level showing.
Biggest failure: The rotation
Arizona entered the season with an on-paper rotation that looked loaded — Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt. That quintet has gone 47-39 with a 4.37 ERA. Burnes went down for the season in June. Kelly was traded. And the other three all have ERA+ figures well below league average. The Arizona bullpen has been even worse, but the roster and the payroll were built on a foundation of elite starting pitching that has not held up.
Biggest success: Nick Kurtz
That Kurtz is good isn’t a surprise. That he’s this good this fast is stunning and exhilarating. After an aggressive promotion in late April, Kurtz didn’t hit his first homer until his 17th big league game. He then went deep 19 times over 49 games with a 1.078 OPS and that was only the lead-up to his 6-for-6, four-homer outburst on July 25 in which he tied the MLB record for 19 total bases in a game. In his age-22 season, Kurtz is on track to become the eighth rookie with an OPS over 1.000 (minimum 400 plate appearances) and of the eight, only Ted Williams and Albert Pujols had a younger baseball age. The A’s have found their cornerstone player.
Biggest failure: Luis Severino
The A’s made a rare splurge in last winter’s free agent market, inking Severino to a three-year, $67 million deal. Year 1 has been disappointing. Severino has gone 6-11 with a 4.82 ERA and an 87 ERA+ while posting the lowest strikeout rate (17.6%) of his career. His struggles in Sacramento have been epic: Severino is 1-9 with a 6.51 ERA over 14 starts at Sutter Health Park.
Biggest success: Hurston Waldrep
Successes have been few and far between for the Braves, but Waldrep’s trajectory seems to be one of them. The sample remains small, but Waldrep went 4-0 with a 1.33 ERA over his first seven starts in 2025 before being roughed up by Houston. He looks like a keeper, if the Braves can keep him healthy.
Biggest failure: The entire season?
The Braves are on pace to miss their forecast by 24 games, a plummet so severe that it’s hard to blame it on any one thing. Injuries have played a part, but other teams are headed to the postseason with plenty of those — the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and Brewers among those with worse health metrics than the Braves. The collapse on the pitching side has been more acute than on offense, but no one is without culpability. Perhaps worst of all, the Braves have baseball’s second-worst organizational record. Things haven’t been any better in the minors.
Biggest success: Trevor Rogers
The Orioles have underperformed across the board, so it could be that we’re damning Rogers with faint praise here, but he has been a genuine revelation. Rogers began the season in the minors and wasn’t that great there, going 0-3 with a 5.51 ERA in eight starts. In the majors? The former Marlin is 8-2 with a 1.43 ERA over 16 starts with solid peripherals. Go figure. Going into what Baltimore hopes will be a bounce-back 2026 season, the Orioles’ rotation needs a lot more success stories like this.
Biggest failure: Adley Rutschman
You hate to pick on one player when the Orioles have disappointed in so many areas, but Rutschman is an avatar for a number of shortcomings. He has underperformed: Baltimore entered the season with the third-best WAR projection at the catcher position but instead rank 25th. He has been injured: According to an injury impact metric based on data from Baseball Prospectus, the Orioles rank 29th in baseball. After two straight disappointing seasons for Rutschman, and considering the arrival of elite prospect Samuel Basallo, the future of the Orioles at catcher looks a lot different than it did a couple of years ago.
Biggest success: Pitching acquisitions
You really can’t choose between Cy Young candidate Garrett Crochet or reliever of the year candidate Aroldis Chapman, neither of whom was with Boston at this time last year. Crochet has blossomed with the Red Sox, matching the dominance he showed per inning with Chicago with the workload of a true ace. Chapman, at 37, is on pace to record a career-best ERA (1.26) and his second-best bWAR (3.3, just shy of his 3.4 in 2012).
Biggest failure: In-season roster work
The Red Sox have received great production from their rookie class, headlined by Roman Anthony and Carlos Narvaez. But a team in position to challenge for the American League East title ranks 29th in my in-season acquisition index, a metric that looks at the quality and quantity of the production from players signed or traded for during the season. Boston has dealt with a lot of injuries (27th in injury impact) but has been too passive about compensating for them.
Biggest success: The offense
Things have slowed over the second half, but the Cubs’ attack has been one of baseball’s most productive and exciting over the course of the season. Chicago leads the majors in secondary average (patience and power), isolated power and team-level power-speed number. The production has come from up and down the lineup, giving the Cubs one of their deepest offenses in years.
Biggest failure: The bullpen
The Cubs’ rotation has picked up the pace over the second half, which has helped pick up the slack from the regressing hitters. But as October nears, the Cubs still lack clarity in the bullpen. With Daniel Palencia out, the relievers still lack a clear end-of-game hammer. Since the All-Star break, the Cubs’ relief ERA (4.40) is middle of the pack. For the most part, Craig Counsell has pieced things together, but the lack of impact acquisitions during the season, with the exception of Andrew Kittredge, might undermine the Cubs once the postseason arrives.
Biggest success: The rookies
According to my rookie contribution metric — basically adding up the consensus WAR figures for first-year players — the White Sox (11.61 rookie WAR) have four more wins than any other team. In Kyle Teel, Colson Montgomery, Chase Meidroth, Mike Vasil, Shane Smith, Edgar Quero and Wikelman Gonzalez, Chicago has graduated some bona fide building blocks to the majors. With a decent finish, the White Sox can avoid another 100-loss season. That might seem like a low bar for excitement, but when you’re coming off a 121-loss debacle, that’s a huge improvement.
Biggest failure: Luis Robert Jr.
The season began with reports of Roberts’ revamped approach at the plate, but 2025 proved to be another step back for one of the game’s most talented players. Robert did improve his strike zone indicators, but it didn’t pay off at the bottom line, as his OPS+ dropped two more points off his career-low of 86 in 2024. And it looks as if he’ll end the season where he has spent far too much time during his career: on the injured list. Whether you view Robert as a White Sox building block or the team’s last-best chance to generate impactful return in the trade market, none of this is good.
Biggest success: The rotation
The Reds’ pitching, in general, has kept the team on the fringe of the playoff chase all season, but the starters, in particular, have been rock solid. According to my AXE metric used in the Awards Watch series, six of the top nine Reds performers this season have been starting pitchers, led by Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene. Only three teams have compiled more quality starts.
Biggest failure: The flagging offense
Cincinnati’s hitters are on track to finish around their preseason forecast of 660 park-neutral runs scored. But at the midway point of the season, the Reds were on pace to finish at 693, and during the span of the regression, a trade deadline passed. Miguel Andujar has helped, when he has played, but it hasn’t been enough. The Reds rank 19th or worse at five of the nine positions by OPS, and that’s with the baked in boost of Great American Ballpark.
Biggest success: The stretch-run rotation
After years of forging a reputation as a starting pitcher factory, the Guardians’ actual performance in that area over the past couple of years hasn’t lived up to it. Until recently, that is. After ranking 18th with a 4.17 rotation ERA through Aug. 25, Cleveland is second with a 2.78 mark since. The Guardians have hung in the playoff race with a 14-5 record during that span, despite ranking 22nd with only 4.16 runs scored per game.
Biggest failure: The offense
Take your pick, really. Whatever the offensive metric, the Guardians stink in it. They’re 29th or worse in each of the slash columns, last in BABIP and 24th in isolated power. They rank 29th in OPS at catcher and shortstop, and 30th in center field and right field. There is only so much Jose Ramirez can do.
Biggest success: Attendance
The Rockies are in the pack, drawing 29,676 fans per game, down just 1,211 over last season. They are outdrawing the first-place Detroit Tigers. The world is a very strange place sometimes.
Biggest failure: Everything else
Assuming the Rockies don’t lose out — which could happen, of course — they won’t end up matching or surpassing the 2024 White Sox’s season record for losses. Still, this marks the Rockies’ third straight 100-loss season, fourth straight last-place finish and seventh straight season of finishing fourth or worse in the NL West. The Rockies are long overdue when it comes to asking hard questions about how they do things.
Biggest success: Tarik Skubal
The Tigers are closing in on their first division title in 11 years and second straight playoff berth. They are built largely on internally developed players and hold baseball’s best overall organizational record. In other words, lots more talent is on the way. Still, Skubal stands out on a team full of success stories by replicating or even bettering his Cy Young-winning 2024 campaign. He has become one of baseball’s biggest stars and the face of what Detroit has been building — and this edifice has a lot of faces.
Biggest failure: The rotation depth
Skubal’s is but one turn through the rotation, and the Tigers’ run prevention has lagged over the second half of the season. Since the break, Skubal has a 2.31 ERA with eight quality starts in 10 outings. The rest of the Detroit rotation has a 5.32 ERA with only 10 quality starts in 43 outings. If this bites the Tigers in the postseason, there will be questions about why Detroit didn’t take a bigger swing at the trade deadline.
Biggest success: Front office improvisation
The Astros are almost right at their preseason forecast, but their path to those 87-88 wins has been less than predictable. Because of that, much of the story of Houston’s season can be told in two of the measures we keep mentioning. First, the Astros rank last in the injury impact metric, meaning no team has been more affected by player absences (Yordan Alvarez especially). Second, the Astros rank first on the in-season acquisition leaderboard. Carlos Correa, Jesus Sanchez, Ramon Urias, Craig Kimbrel and others have helped keep Houston’s contention window ajar as we enter the home stretch.
Biggest failure: Christian Walker
The Astros’ offense is much less dynamic than it has been in a long time. No one player is to blame, and Alvarez’s long stay on the IL has to be kept in mind. But things wouldn’t be quite so severe if Walker had plugged what has become a longstanding hole for Houston at first base. It’s always dicey signing free agent hitters who are well into their 30s, and so it has been so far for Walker, whose OPS+ has slipped from a three-year average of 123 in Arizona to 95 in Houston. He has been better since the All-Star break, so we should hold off final judgment on the signing for now, but the bottom line is that, at the moment, Walker is barely over replacement level on the season.
Biggest success: The starting pitching
Last season, the Royals got 151 starts from their top five starters. This season, they’ve had 12 pitchers make at least two starts and depending on when, and if, Michael Wacha returns before the end of the season, none of them might qualify for an ERA title. The injuries have affected the rotation performance during the second half, but it hasn’t fallen off a cliff, and for the season, Kansas City has MLB’s sixth-best rotation ERA. Whether it’s converting relievers (Kris Bubic), developing midlevel prospects (Noah Cameron) or identifying trade targets (Ryan Bergert), the Royals have become adept at finding rotation answers that fit their system.
Biggest failure: The offense
Bobby Witt Jr. remains a superstar. Maikel Garcia has been one of baseball’s most improved players. Vinnie Pasquantino remains a high-level run producer. But other than a midseason surge, the Royals have just not been able to score consistently enough to hang in the playoff chase, despite their elite pitching-and-defense combo. They’ve tried to paper over their holes with trades during the season, but the baseline for the lineup is just too low to fix on the fly.
Biggest success: Zach Neto
With a second straight five-WAR season, Neto has become one of baseball’s top shortstops at age 24. He sat out time early in the season and his numbers for the most part are similar to 2024, save for a non-trivial uptick in slugging. As he has matured, Neto has hit the ball harder more often, while still shining in the field and on the bases.
Biggest failure: Mike Trout
During the four-year period from 2021 to 2024, Trout averaged just 66.5 games per season. But on a per-162-game basis, he had rates of 46.3 homers, 109 runs and a 160 OPS+. If he could only stay in the lineup. With a move to DH this season, Trout has indeed been more available, but his impact has ebbed. Trout’s OPS+ is 115 — solid, but not Trout-like — and his slugging percentage is a shocking .417. Maybe it’s just the adjustment to DHing, which isn’t always smooth. Trout, after all, is still only 34 years old.
Biggest success: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Remember, we’re dealing with expectations here, so Shohei Ohtani doesn’t get credit in this context for doing the incredible things he already was doing. But it has been a banner season for Yamamoto, the most stable part of a deep Dodgers rotation that has again been riddled with injuries. Yamamoto has lived up to his pre-2024 hype but ramping up the volume, at least for a Dodgers pitcher. Already over the 162-inning minimum, Yamamoto is the first Dodgers pitcher to qualify for the ERA title since 2022.
Biggest failure: Health
Health has continued to be a general problem for the Dodgers, but it continues to be especially bad on the pitching side. L.A. is baseball’s deepest team but despite that, the injuries have come so frequently that the Dodgers have kept the transaction wire spinning all season. They’ve used 39 different pitchers, 16 of whom have started at least one game and 10 of whom have earned at least one save. How does manager Dave Roberts keep it all straight?
Biggest success: An emerging lineup
Between young players who have hit the ground running (Agustin Ramirez, Jakob Marsee) and young veterans improving as they enter their primes (Otto Lopez, Xavier Edwards and, especially, Kyle Stowers), the Marlins increasingly look like a team that can field an exciting lineup in 2026.
Biggest failure: The rotation
Injuries over the past couple of years have rocked a talented group of Marlins starters. Other than a midseason surge when the Marlins’ pitchers got hot as a group, Miami’s starters have been lit up for most of 2025, ranking 28th in rotation ERA with the second-lowest total of quality starts. Yet the talent of Sandy Alcantara, Eury Perez, Edward Cabrera, Max Meyer and an interesting wave of coming prospects remains tantalizing. Maybe next season it’ll all come back into focus.
Biggest success: Brice Turang
Turang’s ascension into an All-Star-caliber player is undeniable now that he has added power to an already full toolkit. He’s one of the game’s best second basemen, but more than that, he typifies Milwaukee’s transformation into MLB’s top regular-season club. He’s young, athletic, great on defense and gets on base. And he’s exciting, standing out as one of baseball’s most aesthetically pleasing players to watch.
Biggest failure: Reliever health?
Most everything has gone right for the Brewers, so it’s hard to term anything as a failure. Even the bullpen has been excellent over the course of the season. But a spate of late-season injuries has made things a wee bit more interesting as we edge toward the playoffs.
Biggest success: Joe Ryan
The Twins’ right-hander made the leap from solid midrotation starter to top-of-the-rotation ace this season. Ryan will finish with a career-high innings count and will likely match that volume with his best ERA+ (currently 126) and bWAR (4.5). Ryan’s season isn’t out of line with what he has done before on a per-inning basis, but he has done it more often. Now, as Ryan stands to earn a jump in pay per the arbitration system, we’ll see if the frugal Twins pay him or trade him.
Biggest failure: The midseason unloading
The Twins pulled the plug on their season at the trade deadline and the results since have not been pretty, on the field or off the field in terms of fan reaction. Since then, Minnesota has baseball’s second-worst record and has been drawing attendance figures lately indicative of a fan base that entered the season already annoyed by the Twins’ passive offseason. News that the franchise is no longer on the market hasn’t helped. The trajectory is bad.
Biggest success: Juan Soto
No, Soto hasn’t reinvented baseball during his first season as a Met, but he has been Juan Soto, and that has been a reminder of why he was so coveted. Soto is having a down season in the average category thanks to the vagaries of BABIP, but everything is vintage Soto. And it feels as if we forget this part: He still hasn’t turned 27. Soto has more seasons like this ahead of him, but he has some even better than this in his hip pocket. In any event, any concerns that Soto’s huge contract would be his ruination ought to be alleviated by now.
Biggest failure: The collapsing rotation
The Mets’ pitching free fall has been one of the most stunning stories of the season. Through the end of July, the Mets had baseball’s fifth-best rotation ERA (3.44). The starters ranked 27th in quality starts and 25th in innings, so they weren’t going deep, but they were effective while out there. Since then, New York’s starters have a 5.40 ERA (24th), further taxing a bullpen that has arguably been just as bad or worse. The avatar is Kodai Senga, who went from Cy Young candidate to minor leaguer in about six weeks. Maybe the rookie trio of Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat will save the day, but this is not how the Mets drew it up.
Biggest success: Bronx bombing
This isn’t a perfect Yankees team, but they’ve bashed their way back into the World Series picture in a very literal way. A stunning 59% of the Yankees’ runs this season have come via the home run. When Anthony Volpe hits his next homer, the Yankees will feature a regular lineup in which every slot is occupied by a player with at least 20 homers this season. That includes Ryan McMahon, who hit most of his dingers for Colorado, but it’s still going to be amazing to see.
Biggest failure: Devin Williams
Across the past three seasons before coming to New York, Williams gave up 26 earned runs over 148 games with a 1.66 ERA. In his first Yankees season, he has given up 33 earned runs in 61 games with a 5.30 ERA. With a strikeout rate down around 5% off his career figure and 10% from last year, Williams just hasn’t been the same pitcher, and as the season has progressed, the numbers just keep getting worse.
Biggest success: Kyle Schwarber
Already one of baseball’s most dangerous sluggers, at 32 Schwarber has never been better. He already has joined Ryan Howard as the only Phillies in the 50-homer club and leads the majors with 128 RBIs, 24 above his previous career best. He has done this with his best strikeout rate in six years and his typically high walk rate. Good timing, too: Schwarber will be a free agent this winter.
Biggest failure: Aaron Nola
Nola has always been a little up and down, but his downs have never been like his injury- and performance-plagued 2025 showing. Nola’s 6.44 ERA over 15 starts has him under replacement level, and while the Phillies’ overall rotation has been dynamite, Nola’s struggles are more pressing with Zack Wheeler gone for the season. Nola has shown flashes and remains in the rotation, but he’s running out of time before a playoff season that the Phillies will enter as one of the favored teams.
Biggest success: Paul Skenes
Yes, we expected Skenes to be this good, but who else are we going to put here? Skenes has been even better in Year 2, somehow bettering (so far) his sub-2.00 rookie ERA, dropping from 1.96 to 1.92 even while ramping up his innings total. The Pirates are 27-17 when Skenes starts so far in his career, which translates to a 99-win team over 162 games. In the non-Skenes games, they’ve won at a rate of 69 games per 162. He’s pretty good.
Biggest failure: An anemic offense
The Pirates’ lack of any kind of spending or success in developing hitters has left them with a tragic attack. The median run total for a team in a game is four. Let’s say any time a team scores more than four, it’s a win for the offense and a loss for the defense. Finishing at exactly four runs represents a push, or a tie. Using this framework, the Pirates’ pitchers have a record of 77-55-18, giving them the fifth-best winning percentage in the majors. The hitters are 44-88-18, ranking last. That’s your 2025 Pittsburgh Pirates.
Biggest success: Winning the deadline
The Padres haven’t launched since A.J. Preller’s frenetic activity at the trade deadline, but his work then was still crucial. Rather than finishing the roster as Preller probably hoped, the newcomers have helped cover for drop-offs and injuries from those already on hand. That has been especially true for the bullpen, where Jason Adam was injured and Jeremiah Estrada has hit some speed bumps. But acquisition Mason Miller has been even more electric than expected. Meanwhile, Freddy Fermin has solidified the catcher spot and Ramon Laureano, brought in to raise the floor of a struggling outfield slot, has been San Diego’s best percentage hitter since arriving.
Biggest failure: Xander Bogaerts
At 32, Bogaerts has posted his second straight subpar offensive season. His OPS+ (98) is up from last season’s 92 but remains well off the 130-ish level he reached in Boston. The change in ballparks has been more severe for Bogaerts than expected. His career slugging percentage at Fenway Park is .496 but is just .402 at Petco Park. This season, only three of Bogaerts’ 10 homers have come at home.
Biggest success: A revamped lineup
The Giants were subtractors at the trade deadline, particularly when it came to emptying out the back of the bullpen. Yet San Francisco remains on the cusp of a wild-card slot, and it’s not all because the Mets went into a spiral. The Giants have featured a top-10 offense since the end of July, featuring a stable everyday lineup that has coalesced into a nice unit. After a slow start, Willy Adames has come on strong, Rafael Devers had adapted to his post-Boston life, and Matt Chapman has been mashing. A new outfield mix featuring ex-Met Drew Gilbert and Jung Hoo Lee has become a gas to watch. The Giants are fun.
Biggest failure: Defensive range
You have to get specific, because the Giants’ overall defensive metrics are above average because of Patrick Bailey‘s off-the-charts work behind the plate. But out in the field, the Giants rank 27th in Statcast’s outs above average, a disappointing result for a club with flashy defenders up the middle and at third base with Chapman.
Biggest success: Cal Raleigh
This is perhaps the most obvious selection on the board. Raleigh is having one of the most shockingly historical seasons we’ve ever seen. To be sure, Raleigh had been plenty good before this season, one of the best all-around backstops in the game. But this? The best homer season ever by a catcher? The best by a switch-hitter — even Mickey Mantle? It’s unreal. Using the FanGraphs version of WAR, which is more laudatory of Raleigh’s framing skills, his 2025 total (8.0) ranks seventh all time among primary catchers, and he’s still going.
Biggest failure: The rotation
Again, let’s remember that we’re keeping preseason expectation at the forefront of our minds. Seattle’s rotation has been solid, very consistent. The M’s rank 17th in rotation ERA (4.08) and fifth in quality starts. But before the season, Seattle figured to have a top-five rotation at the very least. The group was supposed to be the strength of the roster. Bryan Woo has been great, but everyone else has been worse than projected, either because of injuries, performance drop-off or both. Yet the Mariners regained first place with two weeks to go. If the rotation had been what we thought it would be, they would have already clinched the AL West.
Biggest success: Matthew Liberatore
Well, we have to put something down. Frankly, even though the Cardinals have managed to stay around baseball’s middle, this has felt like a disheartening season. With just a little boost from the front office, the low bar of postseason contention in this year’s NL might have been cleared. St. Louis hasn’t received much in terms of breakout performances, though some of the younger players have shown progress. That pretty much describes Liberatore, the touted prospect St. Louis acquired way back on Jan. 9, 2020, from Tampa Bay for Randy Arozarena. Until 2025, Liberatore hadn’t been able to establish himself as a rotation regular, but he has made 27 starts and stayed within shouting distance of league average. His strikeout rates don’t scream “untapped upside!” but you never know.
Biggest failure: Season approach
Nothing about St. Louis baseball has made much sense for about a year. If the Cardinals had truly reset, that at least would have been a clear direction. As it stands, it’s still completely unclear why the Cardinals didn’t just try to build the best possible roster they could for the 2025 season. After this finally ends, the baton will pass to Chaim Bloom and perhaps he can paint a more coherent portrait. Let the Ray-ification of the Redbirds begin.
Biggest success: Junior Caminero
This has been a mildly disappointing season for Tampa Bay, but not so for its powerhouse, 21-year-old third baseman. Caminero’s 44 homers already rank second in Rays history, and he needs only two more to tie Carlos Pena’s 18-year-old franchise record. The only other age-21 player to reach 44 homers is Hall of Famer Eddie Mathews, who hit 47 in 1953. Caminero still has a shot at that mark.
Biggest failure: Close games
This has been a strange season for Tampa Bay, and not only because the Rays have had to call the Yankees’ spring training facility their home park. Tampa Bay has had a couple of stretches where it looked like one of baseball’s top teams but has been thwarted by close losses — which is the antithesis of what the last few good Rays teams have been like. This season, Tampa Bay is just 33-40 in games decided by one or two runs. Because of that, the Rays are on pace to fall 7.3 wins shy of the record predicted by their run differential, tied with Texas for the biggest shortfall in baseball.
Biggest success: Overcoming injuries
Over their past 20 games coming out of the weekend, the Rangers had won 15, the best last-20 mark in baseball. This has allowed Texas to close its sizable gap with Houston and eke closer to the Mariners. The postseason remains very much in play. During that 20-game stretch, Texas got five games from Corey Seager, zero from Marcus Semien, 10 from Adolis Garcia and zero from Evan Carter. Ace starter Nathan Eovaldi made his last appearance of the season the day before that 20-game window began. The more beat-up the Rangers are, the more they seem to thrive.
Biggest failure: Home offense
The Rangers have just a .676 OPS at Globe Life Field, while they’re at .724 on the road. Last season, they were 34 points better at home. The season before, when the Rangers won the World Series, they were 107 points better. It is a baffling thing. In his first Texas season, DH Joc Pederson has hit .155 with a .559 OPS at home. He hasn’t been great on the road, either, but his OPS is 103 points better while traveling. All of this is too bad for the hitters, but while bemoaning their fate at GLF, we should also note that the Rangers have been baseball’s best home team this season (by run differential) thanks to an absurdly-low 2.77 home ERA by the pitching staff.
Biggest success: Ernie Clement
No, really. The Blue Jays have the AL’s best record. Among all teams, they are 10th in OPS+ and 15th in ERA+, solid but not No. 1-seed solid. There are some facts that align with the standing — a 50-25 home record, and a 40-28 mark in games decided by one or two runs. Toronto leads all teams in FanGraphs’ DEF metric, suggesting the Jays have a strong claim as baseball’s best defensive team. For all that, it just feels as if there is something intangible going on with this club, and no one typifies that more than Clement, a jack-of-all trades infielder who contributes on both offense and defense. Clement is a very different kind of player than Ben Zobrist — and not as good — but there is something reminiscent of Clement on Toronto to Zobrist’s roles with championship teams in Kansas City and Chicago last decade.
Biggest failure: Jeff Hoffman
It’s hard to believe Toronto’s record in close games is as good as it is given Hoffman’s up-and-down season as the Blue Jays’ primary closer. Hoffman has 30 saves but he has blown seven games and somehow has a 9-7 win-loss record, which isn’t the kind of thing you expect to see from a 2025 closer. Heck, if he blows a couple of more saves that the Jays rescue him from, he could tie for Toronto’s team lead in wins. Seriously, though, Hoffman has been barely replacement level this season. He has been on a nice roll of late, until he gave up a ninth-inning homer to Houston’s Yainer Diaz that resulted in his seventh loss last Wednesday. If Toronto’s feel-good season is going to last deep into October, the Jays really need Hoffman to be part of the happy tidings.
Biggest success: James Wood
It hasn’t been a happy season for the Nats, who are likely to lose more games than the 91 they dropped in 2023 and 2024. That’s not how rebuilding is supposed to work. Wood has been the best player in a bad situation, adding some power to his solid rookie season percentages and improving his defensive metrics. He has struggled at home, though, and his first-half OPS — a star-like .915 — has dropped to .663 since the All-Star Game. Even the Nats’ good news is bad.
Biggest failure: The rebuild
It will continue, of course, because there is no other choice. But the post-championship reset embarked upon by the old regime of Mike Rizzo and Dave Martinez is officially kaput, and those two were put out of work on the same day in July. This offseason represents a fresh start for a franchise that very much needs one.
One of the winners in the first College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday was the Big 12. BYU (No. 7) and Texas Tech (No. 8) showed up in the top 10, and Utah sits within striking distance at No. 13.
It adds up to make Saturday’s matchup between the Cougars and Red Raiders — perhaps a Big 12 title game preview — the most consequential in college football. A loss for either team wouldn’t necessarily remove it from the playoff conversation but would strike a significant blow and leave little room for error down the stretch.
The two other ranked matchups this week are No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 22 Missouri and No. 9 Oregon at No. 20 Iowa. Look out for Iowa. The Hawkeyes are coming off a convincing win against Minnesota and appear to have turned a corner offensively. Meanwhile, the Ducks have had a couple of weeks to prepare after they failed to impress in a 21-7 win against Wisconsin on Oct. 25. — Kyle Bonagura
Jump to:
Texas A&M | Five freshmen to know
BYU-Texas Tech | Quotes of the week
How the Texas A&M got better in 2025
There haven’t been any wholesale schematic changes, it’s just that the Aggies finally added a couple of contributors at wide receiver to give offensive coordinator Collin Klein more juice. Other than that, they’ve just grown up. A&M’s offensive line was a giant weakness at the end of the Jimbo Fisher era, but offensive line coach Adam Cushing has worked wonders, fashioning a group in the running for the Joe Moore Award, which goes to the most outstanding OL unit. Quarterback Marcel Reed is in his first full season as the starter, so he has added experience, and the solid protection means he can get through his reads. But the additions of Mario Craver and KC Concepcion at receiver, one of only three tandems in the SEC who each have more than 500 receiving yards, have given the Aggies breathing room. The vertical threats open up the running game (Craver’s 455 receiving yards after the catch is the second most in the FBS), and Klein’s offense also stretches teams horizontally.
Last season, there just weren’t any A&M receivers getting separation. This season, Reed is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt beyond the line of scrimmage, the second-most air yards per throw in the SEC behind Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar. That kind of room opens up running lanes. The Aggies average 2.35 yards per rush before contact, third best in the SEC, and that also benefits Reed. He has had both passing and rushing touchdowns in four straight games, the longest streak by an Aggie since Johnny Manziel had five in 2012 and something only five SEC players have done in the past 15 years. — Dave Wilson
Five freshmen who’ve made a name for themselves
Bear Bachmeier, QB, BYU: Bachmeier left Stanford, hit the transfer portal and replaced a returning starter before playing a single snap this fall. On Saturday, he leads the unbeaten Cougars into a pivotal Big 12 showdown at No. 8 Texas Tech with BYU in the thick of the playoff hunt. Bachmeier has delivered on the dual-threat promise he flashed out of high school, accounting for 2,101 all-purpose yards and 20 total touchdowns in eight starts. Among true freshman quarterbacks, he ranks first nationally in completion percentage (58.7%), passer rating (95.2) and yards per attempt (7.9). And at 6-foot-2 and 220 pounds, Bachmeier is also getting it done on the ground, entering Week 10 tied for seventh in rushing scores (9) among FBS passers. The Cougars’ first-year quarterback appears to be the full package, and Bachmeier is a big reason No. 7 BYU hits the back end of the regular season firmly contending for a playoff spot.
Mason Heintschel, QB, Pitt: A three-star prospect in the 2025 class, Heintschel has been a revelation for the 24th-ranked Panthers, who appeared in the College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday for only the second time since December 2021. Pitt (7-2) is 5-0 since Heintschel took over for season-opening starter Eli Holstein at Boston College on Oct. 4. Over those five games, Heintschel has thrown for 1,547 yards with 12 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. One of only five true freshman quarterbacks with 200-plus passing attempts in the FBS, Heintschel sits tied with Maryland’s Malik Washington for the most TDs within that group and trails only Bachmeier in completion percentage (64.1%) and passer rating (92.0). Turnovers — nine total in five games — have been a problem for Heintschel, and his ball security and relative inexperience will be tested in matchups with Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and Miami to close the regular season.
Caleb Hawkins, RB, North Texas: For all the (warranted) conversation about Mean Green quarterback Drew Mestemaker, Hawkins is writing an unlikely success story of his own in the nation’s No. 2 scoring offense this fall. Fresh off a 33-carry, 197-yard, 4-touchdown performance against Navy in Week 10, the three-star newcomer from Shawnee, Oklahoma, leads all freshman running backs across the country in attempts (121), rushing yards (744) and touchdowns (11). Among FBS rushers with at least 50 carries this fall, Hawkins ranks tied for fifth in rushing scores and 11th in yards per attempt (6.1). Inevitably, Hawkins’ breakout debut season is already earning him the attention of Power 4 programs as a potential offseason transfer portal target. But for now, he’s one of the key parts of a high-scoring offense that has North Texas contending for an American Conference title, and in turn, a potential place in the playoff field.
Graceson Littleton, CB, Texas: A late addition to the Longhorns’ top-ranked 2025 recruiting class, the 6-foot, 180-pound defensive back has become a fixture in a new-look Texas secondary powering the nation’s 25th-ranked pass defense. Primarily operating at slot corner, Littleton has tallied 33 total tackles and a pair of pass breakups while playing more snaps (409) than all but four other Longhorns defenders this fall, and his two interceptions — including a fourth-quarter pick against Oklahoma on Oct. 11 — leave him tied for the national lead among freshmen defensive backs across the FBS. Through nine games, Littleton has blossomed into an instant contributor with the makings of a future star in the Texas secondary, where he and the No. 11 Longhorns are staring down a pair of daunting late-season matchups with No. 5 Georgia and No. 3 Texas A&M.
Malachi Toney, WR, Miami: The pass catcher they call “Baby Jesus” in Coral Gables isn’t just putting together the best freshman receiving season across the FBS. Toney, who reclassified from the 2026 cycle to enter college early, is also already one of the nation’s productive wide receivers. No first-year pass catcher has recorded more targets (66), receptions (52) and receiving yards (632) than Toney in 2025. And among all receivers nationally, the 5-11 newcomer from Liberty City, Florida, ranks seventh in yards after catch (390) and 16th in first-down receptions (31). Toney, who has yet to drop a pass in his college career, has immediately become one of the country’s most electrifying playmakers this fall, and he projects to be a central contributor to whatever the 18th-ranked Hurricanes do from here — in 2025 and beyond. — Eli Lederman
What do BYU, Texas Tech need to capitalize on to win?
BYU: Keep it close. This is a team that has proved it has the poise to pull out close games, and in a game like this, that matters. Texas Tech has been winning more convincingly and it was perhaps its lack of experience in tight contests that backfired against Arizona State a few weeks ago.
For true freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier, Texas Tech’s impressive front seven will force him to make faster decisions. It will be his most challenging test of the season and he needs to play close to error-free for BYU to find a rhythm on offense.
Despite the undefeated record, BYU hasn’t been as good defensively as it was a year ago. This would be a perfect game to reach its capabilities. — Bonagura
Texas Tech: In a must-win game for the Red Raiders’ Big 12 title hopes, they need to keep quarterback Behren Morton protected and healthy. Will Hammond is out for the season and can’t step in to save the day if Morton goes down again. Finishing drives is a major challenge in this one. No FBS team has kicked more field goals in the red zone than Texas Tech (15-for-15 this season), and Utah coming up short on three fourth-down conversions in field goal range helped swing the Holy War game.
On defense, Texas Tech’s No. 1-ranked rushing defense needs to contain Big 12 leading rusher LJ Martin and get Bachmeier into third-and-long. The freshman has been disciplined in those situations with an 88.4 QBR and no turnovers and can scramble out of trouble, but he hasn’t yet faced David Bailey and Romello Height. — Max Olson
Quotes of the week
“I think we are desperate,” Texas A&M coach Mike Elko said of his unbeaten Aggies. “I tell them all the time: You know, we have earned everything that we’ve got, right? We’ve got a record. We’ve got a ranking. We’ve got opportunities that we have worked really, really hard to earn. And, every single Saturday, someone is coming in and trying to take all of that from us, and that’s the urgency that we have.”
“They’re big humans that take up a lot of space,” Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire said of BYU’s talent on both sides of the line of scrimmage. “We’re going to have to do a great job up front on our double-teams. You know, we’re going to have to win our one-on-ones. I think that’s huge.”
Miami’s Mario Cristobal on the message to his team after the Hurricanes’ Week 10 loss to SMU: “When things go wrong, that’s when all the rats start to come out and try to peck at you and all that other stuff. You got to go tell them to go. You know what? Go to work, and do it emphatically and do it with some guts. Go fix the things that we have to fix so we can go get better and win.”
Oregon’s Dan Lanning ahead of the No. 9 Ducks’ Week 11 trip to No. 20 Iowa: “I’m shocked this team isn’t ranked [in the AP poll]. If you look at the way they’ve been playing, especially recently, and the job that they’ve done. They jumped out really fast against the Minnesota team that plays good football, had a big win this past weekend. So I think this team probably is not getting near enough credit that they deserve for the kind of team that they are.”
“The reality is college football needs to be decided on the field,” Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz said in a critique of the College Football Playoff committee’s initial rankings. “There needs to be play-in games. There’s not another sport in the country that is decided — besides NCAA basketball, NCAA baseball and NCAA football — by committees. Like, decide it on the field. Just like pro sports do.”
Clemson’s Dabo Swinney on accountability in officiating this week: “Refs are people, too. It ain’t just coaches and players. And if they’re a part of the game, then by god, they ought to be a part of the game and they ought to be a part of the accountability. They ought to be a part of the consequences, not just behind some shadowy curtain. Like no, they ought to have to answer for it.”
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Bill Connelly
The stakes are officially set. We know what the College Football Playoff committee thinks of all the requisite contenders — we know that Oregon could be in trouble with another loss, that Notre Dame is in excellent shape and that the ACC probably is getting only one team in (which is all it deserves). Now it’s time to see how this all plays out.
Week 11 should be a delight. We get a battle of top-10s in Lubbock and a bigger-than-expected upset attempt in Iowa City. The SEC’s top two teams, though safe in the playoff race, face unique tests. The ACC and American Conference races might gain some clarity, and they might grow even sloppier.
What shifts will we see and where? Here’s everything you need to follow in a rather off-the-beaten-path Week 11.
The biggest game in Lubbock in 17 years
No. 7 BYU at No. 8 Texas Tech (noon, ABC)
For just the fifth time in history, a top-10 Texas Tech team will host a top-10 opponent on Saturday. The Red Raiders lost two such games back in the 1970s, but they won a pair in 2008. You probably remember at least one of them.
That’s the last time “College GameDay” was in town. It’ll be there Saturday. Hell yeah.
In this moment, with the Big Ten and SEC attempting to further distance themselves from the rest of the sport in terms of both money and power, BYU and Texas Tech in particular are trying to disrupt the party a bit. BYU was testing the boundaries of NIL possibilities right after NIL became a thing and is milking a large and monied fan base to solid effect in both football and basketball. Texas Tech, meanwhile, has the most famous NIL billionaire in the game running television commercials and openly questioning the judgment of the sport’s most powerful individuals.
Oh yeah, and both teams are awesome this season. Despite starting a true freshman quarterback, BYU is playing the most mature ball in the Big 12. The Cougars don’t always start games well, but they finish them strong, especially on the road — they ended on a 31-3 run against Iowa State and 24-7 against Colorado, and they scored late and then won in overtime at Arizona. They know that 60 minutes is a long time, they’re brilliant in the turnover, third-down and red zone departments on defense, and the offense gets both efficiency from the running game and big plays from receivers Chase Roberts and Parker Kingston. And Bear Bachmeier, the aforementioned freshman QB, is up to 18th in Total QBR, ahead of former BYU starter Jake Retzlaff (now at Tulane), among others. Since a Week 2 semi-dud against Stanford, he ranks 11th.
I wouldn’t advise leaving things ’til late against Texas Tech, however, as the Red Raiders might have put the game away by then. Their eight wins have come by an average of 34 points, and their only loss, a last-second defeat at Arizona State, came without quarterback Behren Morton, who is listed as probable for Saturday.
This is a fascinating test for Bachmeier. Inexperience can strike when it’s least desirable, and if it’s going to hit Bachmeier, it will probably be in Lubbock, facing a unique and hostile crowd and a unique and hostile defense. The Red Raiders have forced 20 turnovers (second nationally) and three-and-outs on 44% of possessions (fifth). David Bailey and Romello Height have combined for 17.5 sacks, and Jacob Rodriguez is the best linebacker in the country. They rank in the top 20 in sack rate while rarely blitzing.
Bachmeier’s supporting cast is strong, with an experienced line, Roberts and Kingston out wide and running back LJ Martin next to him in the backfield. Some freshmen might get on the field because of certain elite traits, but they’re usually forced to learn how to overcome obvious weaknesses. For Bachmeier, his elite trait is his lack of obvious weaknesses.
Bachmeier’s accuracy is perhaps merely average — as represented by CPOE (completion rate over expected) in the chart above — but his well-roundedness is startling for a first-year guy. Against an elite Utah defense, he was able to grind out success, averaging only 6.6 yards per dropback but throwing no picks and rushing nine times for 71 yards and a rugged, game-clinching 22-yard touchdown on third-and-11. But here comes an even bigger test. Meanwhile, the BYU defense will have to cope with a balanced and explosive offense featuring two high-end running backs (Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams) and a diverse receiving corps with five players between 21 and 41 receptions.
The winner of this one will head into the season’s homestretch with quite a bit of margin for error in the CFP hunt; the loser, however, will be right on the border. At 16th in SP+, BYU has what appears to be its best team since the glorious 2020 team that went 11-1 and ranked fourth. But this might be Tech’s best team ever. Four Red Raiders teams have finished in the SP+ top 10 — 1954, 2005, 2008 and 2009 (here’s your regular reminder that Mike Leach was a fantastic head coach) — but not one finished higher than eighth. Tech is currently fourth, and that’s with the ASU game dragging it down. The upside is immense, and Saturday, Lubbock will be the center of the college football universe.
Current line: Tech -10.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 9.7 | FPI projection: Tech by 2.7
A sloppy track in Iowa City
No. 9 Oregon at No. 20 Iowa (3:30 p.m., CBS)
The current weather forecast for Iowa City on Saturday afternoon is sloppy: Temperature in the low-to-mid-40s, 90% chance of rain. That’s some serious Iowa November weather, though come to think of it, it’s pretty Oregon, too, isn’t it?
Tuesday’s CFP rankings revealed some vulnerability for Dan Lanning’s Ducks. They’re awesome on paper (third in both SP+ and FPI), but they’ve played only two SP+ top-50 teams and lost to their only top-tier opponent (Indiana). One of the things that makes me uneasy about the way we discuss strength of schedule is that we seemingly treat it as a choice — Oregon chose to play a weak schedule, therefore the Ducks don’t deserve to rank as high even though they’re clearly very good. It’s not their fault preseason No. 2 Penn State face-planted after losing to the Ducks, just as it’s not their fault that Oklahoma State, a nonconference opponent scheduled years ago when the Cowboys were consistently excellent, has become one of the worst power conference teams in recent history.
Regardless, Oregon is where it is, and the Ducks have a tricky homestretch, with ranked Iowa, USC and Washington teams to come. Iowa has been underrated all season — the Hawkeyes are still somehow unranked in the AP poll despite suffering losses only in an early-season rivalry game against Iowa State (when ISU was soaring) and by five points to an Indiana team that has beaten everyone else by double digits. They’re 17th in SP+, sixth on defense, and their offense is good at all the things that Iowa always wants to be good at but very much wasn’t between 2021 and 2023: rushing (11th in rushing success rate*), penalty avoidance (fewest penalty yards), turnover avoidance (fifth-fewest turnovers) and short yardage (second in third-and-short success rate).
(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is generating 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth.)
They’re as reliant as ever on the run, but how they run is wonderfully unpredictable.
Here’s how to interpret that chart: Bigger dots mean higher frequency, and lighter dots mean higher efficiency. The dots are pretty much the same size, and the efficiency levels are solid across the board.
Now, once the Hawkeyes are behind schedule, they’re toast. But they’re averaging 2.56 points per drive; their best average in the past 20 years was 2.36 in 2008. That’s been more than enough for the typically awesome Iowa defense to take control. Ends Max Llewellyn and Ethan Hurkett are spicy pass rushers, and the secondary gets the requisite ball-hawking from corners TJ Hall and Deshaun Lee and slot corner Zach Lutmer.
Of course, Oregon hasn’t shown us many weaknesses beyond an inability to beat a thus-far unbeatable Indiana team. Quarterback Dante Moore and the offense struggled against Indiana’s elite defense but have otherwise averaged 44.3 points and 7.8 yards per play. Edge rusher Teitum Tuioti and the Oregon defense struggled against Indiana’s elite offense but have otherwise allowed just 11.1 points and 3.9 yards per play.
We haven’t gotten a nice, big upset at Kinnick Stadium in a little while. Iowa hasn’t hosted a top-10 team since 2022 (Michigan) and hasn’t beaten one at home since 2021 (Penn State). Oregon is awesome, but this should be quite the challenge. And in challenging conditions, no less.
Current line: Oregon -6.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 7.5 | FPI projection: Oregon by 5.1.
Will a top SEC team go down?
The SEC’s race isn’t as messy as the ACC’s or American’s, but we still have five teams pretty heavily involved: Per SP+, Alabama has a 33.2% title chance, followed by Texas A&M (30.1%), Georgia (16.1%), Ole Miss (11.3%) and Texas (7.8%).
The two front-runners are in excellent shape playoff-wise, but they have work to do this weekend. A&M visits Missouri — a team that had its own realistic CFP ambitions before losing quarterback Beau Pribula to injury two weeks ago — while Bama is a single-digit favorite against suddenly mysterious LSU.
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 22 Missouri (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Coaches and old-school commentators love telling you how important it is for an offense to stay on schedule. But unlike old-school views on things like fourth-down attempts or the dangers of passing, this is correct. Efficiency is vital in college football; it’s one of the reasons success rate is one of the key pieces of my SP+ ratings.
Staying on schedule might be just about all that matters in Columbia on Saturday. If we break things into standard downs (first downs, second-and-7 or less, third- or fourth-and-4 or less) and passing downs (everything else), we see why pretty quickly.
When A&M has the ball
Standard downs success rate: A&M offense first (58.2%), Mizzou defense fifth (37.7%)
Passing downs success rate: A&M offense 88th (27.5%); Mizzou defense sixth (21.5%)
A&M is elite on standard downs. The Aggies’ running game is quite efficient, and quarterback Marcel Reed averages 9.7 yards per dropback on standard downs, completing 69% of his passes at 14.4 yards per completion and scrambling for nearly 10 yards a pop too.
Reed averages only 6.4 yards per dropback on passing downs, however, while his interception rate nearly doubles and his sack rate triples. Mizzou’s defense is sixth nationally in success rate allowed, and the Tigers generate pressure on 44% of dropbacks. Reed is elusive, but if Mizzou leverages the Aggies behind schedule, they’ll make a lot of stops.
That’s good, because they’ll be giving a true freshman quarterback (Matt Zollers) his first career start against an aggressive A&M defense.
When Mizzou has the ball
Standard downs success rate: Mizzou offense 28th (51.9%), A&M defense 28th (43.2%)
Passing downs success rate: Mizzou offense 15th (37.7%), A&M defense ninth (22.1%)
A&M’s defense is vicious on passing downs. Led primarily by Missouri native Cashius Howell and Dayon Hayes, the Aggies rank second in sack rate. Nothing can rattle a freshman QB faster than constant pressure, so Mizzou has to hope that the combination of backs Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts in the running game and a quick passing game — albeit one that might be without tight end Brett Norfleet (listed as questionable) — can keep Zollers in favorable situations. He was a top-100 prospect, and he threw the ball pretty well filling in against Vanderbilt, but his passing has been mostly short and controlled.
That’s a tight radius of completions. At one point or another, Zollers will be asked to make tough throws to the sideline; if he can’t, A&M will crowd the box and make life awfully difficult.
Current line: A&M -6.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 1.2 | FPI projection: A&M by 1.4
LSU at No. 4 Alabama (7:30 p.m., ABC)
In 2022, future Heisman winner Jayden Daniels outdueled former Heisman winner Bryce Young, and LSU knocked off No. 6 Alabama in overtime. With that result, the Tigers won the SEC West in Brian Kelly’s first season in charge and reignited one of the defining rivalries of the 2010s.
Three years later, Kelly has been fired. He lost his last two Bama games by a combined 43 points, and he lost six of his last 14 games overall. His teams were never bad or even mediocre — unlike another Nick Saban-beating head coach who was recently fired (Auburn’s Hugh Freeze) — but he set the highest possible bar for himself and didn’t clear it. Interim coach Frank Wilson and the Tigers now are left looking to spoil a season or two down the stretch.
They’re still talented enough to do it. The LSU defense, fatigued from carrying a disappointing offense and suffering in the absence of star linebacker Whit Weeks, collapsed in Kelly’s final two games. But it’s still talented, and Weeks has been upgraded to questionable. The offense, now coordinated by former Florida State OC Alex Atkins, could benefit from the element of surprise, not to mention a week of rest for consistently battered quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. If the Tigers land some early haymakers, this could get weird.
Of course, at this point Bama is used to facing stiff challenges. They’ve defeated four ranked opponents, and they’re 3-0 in one-score finishes. Quarterback Ty Simpson remains a major Heisman contender, injured receiver Ryan Williams is listed as probable, and the Tide probably will be ready for a fight.
Current line: Bama -9.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 8.7 | FPI projection: Bama by 9.9
ACC contenders try to avoid potholes
After last week’s ACC chaos, SP+ currently gives six teams a fighting chance at the conference crown: Louisville (28.0%), Virginia (25.6%), Georgia Tech (16.7%), Duke (11.3%), Pitt (8.4%) and SMU (8.0%). Even Miami is still at 2.0%.
This week doesn’t give us any head-to-head matchups between these contenders, but while Duke is off gallivanting with UConn in nonconference play, Pitt is on bye and Miami and Louisville are significant favorites, two contenders face semi-interesting tests.
Wake Forest at No. 14 Virginia (7 p.m., ESPN)
Wake Forest had won three straight games before last week, but the Demon Deacons visited Florida State, absorbed all of the Seminoles’ bad mojo and laid a spectacular egg in a 42-7 loss. Every play seemed to feature miscommunication or a massive individual error.
Any remaining game in which that version of Wake shows up is an automatic loss, but the pre-FSU version could threaten a Virginia team that has flirted with disaster for weeks. The Cavaliers are 8-1 and the vice-favorite in the ACC, but they’ve won their past five games by an average of 4.8 points, three in overtime. They’re just 43rd in SP+.
Wake’s all-or-nothing offense has been mostly nothing of late, scoring 20 combined points in two games, but UVA’s secondary is vulnerable to “alls,” and receiver Chris Barnes is a solid downfield threat. You’re watching this for the other matchup, though. UVA’s offense and Wake’s defense are fun and explosive. The Hoos’ offensive line could struggle with an active Wake front — the Deacs are seventh in stuff rate and third in pressure rate — but backs J’Mari Taylor and Harrison Waylee are excellent after contact, and quarterback Chandler Morris is one of the best in the nation at escaping pressure and getting rid of the ball. UVA is only 53rd in success rate but bumps up to 16th on third downs. Morris has been a godsend, and he and the Hoos tend to come through late.
Current line: UVA -6.5 | SP+ projection: UVA by 9.9 | FPI projection: UVA by 8.6
SMU at Boston College (noon, ACCN)
SMU just worked its way back into the ACC race with its upset of Miami; surely the Mustangs wouldn’t turn around and blow it against 1-8 Boston College, right? Probably not. But it’s worth noting that BC has overachieved against SP+ projections by at least 12 points in back-to-back games, giving both Louisville and Notre Dame more resistance than expected. This is a long trip and an early kick, and if SMU doesn’t bring a certain level of energy, things could get awkward.
SMU’s offense has struggled at times, but the defense has surged despite a growing injury list. BC’s Bill O’Brien has lost faith in quarterback Dylan Lonergan, and though backup Grayson James usually offers more with his legs, he’s even less efficient passing, and he has been battling a hip pointer.
This is a just-in-case watch: BC could make it interesting, but it’s not incredibly likely.
Current line: SMU -11.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 16.2 | FPI projection: SMU by 11.0
The Group of 5 game of the week
Tulane at Memphis (Friday, 9 p.m., ESPN)
While one-loss James Madison and San Diego State lurk, the American Conference champ will be very well positioned to snag the Group of 5’s guaranteed CFP slot. There are currently six American teams with one conference loss; Memphis is one of them, as are each of the Tigers’ last three opponents — Tulane, East Carolina and Navy. This is a tricky homestretch, especially with quarterback Brendon Lewis‘ status uncertain after he suffered another lower-body injury against Rice. Backup AJ Hill was good late against UAB after Lewis exited, but this isn’t a great time to deal with QB uncertainty. Without accounting for Lewis, SP+ still gives the Tigers only a 32% chance of winning these next three games.
But Tulane’s recent form has to give the Tigers hope. After close calls a couple of times, the Green Wave finally found it with last week’s blowout loss at UTSA. After being as high as 38th in SP+, they’ve fallen to 66th, and while Jake Retzlaff and the passing game remain strong, the run game is inconsistent and the defense was lit up for 48 points and 7.6 yards per play in San Antonio.
Retzlaff should be able to find some success, but Tulane’s poor defense will have to make stops at some point, and Memphis’ skill corps is deep and diverse, with Sutton Smith and Greg Desrosiers Jr. in the backfield and big-play receivers Cortez Braham Jr. and Jamari Hawkins out wide.
Current line: Memphis -3.5 (down from -6.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Memphis by 13.3 | FPI projection: Memphis by 6.2
Week 11 chaos superfecta
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. And thanks to NC State’s win over Georgia Tech, we jumped back up to .500 (5-5) last week.
In the immortal words of Lou Brown in “Major League,” if we win today, it’s called two in a row. If we win again tomorrow, it’s called a winning streak. SP+ says there’s only a 42% chance that Virginia (73% win probability against Wake Forest), James Madison (80% against Marshall), SMU (84% against Boston College) and USC (86% against Northwestern) all win. Let’s take down a playoff (or at least ACC title) contender.
Week 11 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Northwestern at No. 19 USC (9 p.m., Fox). USC’s playoff hopes might have remained alive because of an injury; the Trojans were trailing Nebraska 14-6 when Dylan Raiola went down and they rallied to a 21-17 win. Now they host a Northwestern team that lost to Raiola’s Huskers by seven the week before. Northwestern games feature no big plays for either team, and the Wildcats are built to muck this one up for a bit.
Current line: USC -14.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 17.5 | FPI projection: USC by 17.5
Early Saturday
No. 5 Georgia at Mississippi State (noon, ESPN). Mississippi State finally ended a two-year SEC losing streak and has been playing competitive ball with no elite traits but few grave weaknesses. Since this is a Georgia game, though, we can probably just stop the analysis there and assume that the Bulldogs trail late and win anyway. It’s a thing they like to do.
Current line: UGA -9.5 (up from -7.5) | SP+ projection: UGA by 7.1 | FPI projection: UGA by 8.7
No. 2 Indiana at Penn State (noon, Fox). Penn State became only the second team to hit 14 points against Ohio State last week, but the Nittany Lions’ defense succumbed to the Buckeyes’ big plays. Now comes another top-two opponent; outside of two SP+ top-20 opponents, Indiana has beaten mortals by an average of 53-9, and PSU looks awfully mortal. Will it matter that IU’s injury list is growing?
Current line: Indiana -14.5 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 12.0 | FPI projection: Indiana by 10.9
No. 1 Ohio State at Purdue (noon, BTN). Purdue has massively improved this season, but thanks to three recent one-score losses, the Boilermakers have lost seven in a row and are going to be significant underdogs in each of their last three games. Ohio State actually had to get a little aggressive against Penn State but looked great doing so. That probably says bad things about this matchup.
Current line: Buckeyes -30.5 (up from -28.5) | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 29.3 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 29.1
James Madison at Marshall (noon, ESPN2). JMU has shifted into fifth gear of late, scoring 115 points and gaining 1,135 yards in its past two games to charge up the CFP contenders list. But the Dukes’ defense has grown a bit leaky, and Marshall has averaged 41 points over its past six games. Quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson and the Herd are capable of throwing JMU’s playoff hopes for a loop.
Current line: JMU -13.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 13.4 | FPI projection: JMU by 8.6
Southern Miss at Arkansas State (noon, ESPNU). Remember last year, when Charles Huff won the Sun Belt title with Marshall, then took the Southern Miss job and took a quarter of his roster with him? Well, his Golden Thundering Herd Eagles have won four games in a row to move to 6-2. ASU has also won four in a row, and the winner of this one will be a huge favorite to win the Sun Belt West.
Current line: USM -4.5 | SP+ projection: USM by 6.5 | FPI projection: USM by 2.8
Saturday afternoon
Auburn at No. 16 Vanderbilt (4 p.m., SECN). LSU isn’t the only SEC team hoping for an interim boost, as DJ Durkin takes over at Auburn. The Tigers still defend beautifully — 11th in defensive SP+ — but Vandy is averaging 23.3 points against top-15 defenses. Can Auburn score that much against any defense with a pulse at this point?
Current line: Vandy -6.5 | SP+ projection: Vandy by 8.7 | FPI projection: Vandy by 5.7
Iowa State at TCU (3:30 p.m., Fox). Iowa State has lost four straight, but three were by one score and the other was tied in the fourth quarter. TCU has won two straight to get to 6-2, but both were also by one score. The records don’t tell the whole tale here, but TCU’s run defense will probably render ISU inefficient, and quarterback Josh Hoover should find success against a tattered Cyclones secondary.
Current line: TCU -6.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 4.0 | FPI projection: TCU by 4.3
Kansas at Arizona (3:30 p.m., ESPN2). Both of these teams rebounded from 1-3 stretches with comfortable wins last week, and both are a win from bowl eligibility after missing out last season. This one should be decided when KU’s Jalon Daniels drops back to pass: He remains efficient, but Arizona ranks fifth nationally in yards allowed per dropback. Fun matchup there.
Current line: Arizona -5.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 8.2 | FPI projection: Arizona by 3.5
No. 23 Washington at Wisconsin (4:30 p.m., BTN). Wisconsin plays its sixth game against an SP+ top-25 team, with two more to come. Washington puts up huge points against any less-than-elite defense, and Wisconsin isn’t elite at a damn thing. The Huskies are 6-2 and have a good chance to be 9-2 with win-and-you’re-in playoff hopes when Oregon visits for Rivalry Week.
Current line: Huskies -10.5 | SP+ projection: Huskies by 18.4 | FPI projection: Huskies by 6.2
Stanford at North Carolina (4:30 p.m., The CW). UNC is overachieving against SP+ projections by two touchdowns per game over the past three. The key to the Heels’ turnaround? A defense that has turned good against the run and fantastic against the pass. Pass rusher Melkart Abou Jaoude is smoking hot and will probably get to know Stanford quarterback Ben Gulbranson awfully well.
Current line: UNC -7.5 | SP+ projection: UNC by 9.5 | FPI projection: UNC by 3.0
Duke at UConn (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). UConn has played ACC teams as if it were auditioning for a spot in the league, walloping BC and going to overtime with pre-collapse Syracuse. The Huskies make a ton of big plays, and Duke gives up just as many, so for the Blue Devils to avoid a nonconference upset they’ll have to take full advantage of a shaky UConn run front and a soft pass defense.
Current line: Duke -9.5 | SP+ projection: Duke by 0.8 | FPI projection: Duke by 6.1
Syracuse at No. 18 Miami (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Miami has underachieved its offensive projections by 6.2 points per game over its past five; a total lack of big plays has removed the possibility of easy points, and Carson Beck‘s interception-prone tendencies (six in his past three games) have become a problem. Will any of this matter Saturday? Nope. Syracuse’s offense is 12 steps beyond terrible at this point.
Current line: Miami -28.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 27.6 | FPI projection: Miami by 26.8
Saturday evening
Florida State at Clemson (7 p.m., ACCN). Under Mike Norvell, FSU has struggled to course-correct when the vibes go south, but beating a solid Wake team by 35 might have offered quite the correction. Will there be a correction for Clemson this season? The odds of the 3-5 Tigers reaching even 6-6 this season are down to 39%, per SP+, and that number would plummet with a fifth home loss. Fifth!
Current line: Clemson -2.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 2.9 | FPI projection: FSU by 0.8
California at No. 15 Louisville (7 p.m., ESPN2). Cal has done a nice job of taking advantage of a weak schedule, but the Golden Bears have lost to three SP+ top-50 opponents by an average of 37-14, and at 23rd in SP+, Louisville is by far the best team they’ve faced. That probably doesn’t bode well, though with star back Isaac Brown injured, the Cardinals might not take full advantage of Cal’s dreadful run defense.
Current line: Louisville -20.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 20.1 | FPI projection: Louisville by 18.6
Navy at No. 10 Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., NBC). Notre Dame has won its past six games by an average score of 39-15. The Irish meet an equally torrid Pitt next week, but first they must handle an all-or-nothing Navy team that moves the ball as well as ever but ranks 103rd in points allowed per drive. You can run into trouble against the Midshipmen, but it’s hard to shake the memory of last year’s 51-14 blowout.
Current line: Irish -25.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 17.7 | FPI projection: Irish by 27.2
Late Saturday
Nebraska at UCLA (9 p.m., Fox). I’ve almost never seen a disagreement between spread and SP+ projection as big as the one below. Dylan Raiola’s season-ending injury is the reason for the variance, but exactly how many points is a starting quarterback worth? Freshman backup TJ Lateef was a deer in headlights filling in against USC, but if he’s merely composed, Nebraska’s defense is good enough to make this a dogfight.
Current line: UCLA -2.5 | SP+ projection: Nebraska by 13.1 | FPI projection: Nebraska by 4.7
San Diego State at Hawai’i (11 p.m., MW App). SDSU keeps creeping along as a playoff sleeper, having won six straight games by an average of 29-7. The Aztecs are second nationally in both points allowed per drive and yards allowed per play, but when Micah Alejado is dealing, Hawaii is a handful. When Alejado throws for 300-plus, the Rainbow Warriors score 30-plus.
Current line: SDSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 10.9 | FPI projection: SDSU by 3.4
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
FCS: No. 1 North Dakota State at No. 15 North Dakota (2 p.m., ESPN+). We have a pair of big in-state rivalry games in the Missouri Valley this week. Reeling South Dakota State desperately needs a win at No. 25 South Dakota, but one state up, North Dakota is looking for just its second Nickel Trophy win over NDSU in 20 years. (Granted, the rivals have played only six times in that span.) An upset would supercharge the Fighting Hawks’ playoff résumé, but we’ll see if any FCS team is capable of beating an absurdly dominant North Dakota State team that has let only one opponent stay within 17 points.
SP+ projection: NDSU by 12.5
Division III: No. 10 Wisconsin-La Crosse at No. 8 Wisconsin-River Falls (2 p.m., WIAC Network). First, the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference had a six-way tie at 2-1. Then four 3-1 teams paired off last week. And now, last week’s winners, both 4-1, pair off again. It has been a logistically perfect WIAC race, and now we get an upstart — UWRF, which hasn’t won an outright conference title in 40 years and destroyed longtime heavyweight Wisconsin-Whitewater last week — hosting the 2023 WIAC champ with two games to play.
SP+ projection: UWRF by 6.0
FCS: No. 14 Southeastern Louisiana at No. 18 Lamar (4 p.m., ESPN+). Consider me surprised that Southeastern Louisiana is only 14th in the FCS polls. Dual quarterbacks Carson Camp (better passer) and Kyle Lowe (better runner) and the Lions have lost only to Louisiana Tech and LSU and have beaten seven FCS opponents by an average of 47-12. Lamar is 7-2 itself and does something rare in the Southland: defend. But SLU is the favorite for a reason.
SP+ projection: SLU by 9.0
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