Yogi Berra, the Yankees and the biggest game of catch ever
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Alyssa Roenigk
LITTLE FALLS, N.J. — Yogi would have loved this.
Hundreds of people, young, old and wearing matching commemorative T-shirts, just finished dancing the “YMCA” on the field at Yogi Berra Stadium at Montclair State University. Little League teams, former MLB players and local politicians laugh and clutch their gloves as volunteers hand out souvenir baseballs. Yankees organist Ed Alstrom plays “Charge!” from a stage in center field, and the crowd responds on cue.
“Yogi loved bringing people together,” says Yankees great Willie Randolph, who played for Berra from 1976 to 1988 and later coached the Yankees and managed the Mets. “He made everyone feel like they’re family. He would have been ecstatic. I think he’s looking down on this field and is so proud.”
They have all come here on a Sunday afternoon, from as far away as California and Florida, to celebrate a man who treated every interaction much like a game of catch. Berra cared as much about what he tossed into a conversation as how he received what was thrown his way. So, what better way to honor him than by playing the biggest game of catch? Ever.
The current record is 972 pairs, set eight years ago in Illinois. On its face, breaking the Guinness World Record for the largest game of catch sounds simple: Gather a couple thousand people, pair them up and ask them to toss baseballs back and forth for five minutes. Doing it, however, is anything but easy.
When Eve Schaenen, the executive director of the Yogi Berra Museum & Learning Center at Montclair State, approached Guinness with the idea, adjudicator Michael Empric, who is overseeing the day’s process, told her that many mass-attendance record attempts fail.
“That’s part of why we wanted to do this,” Schaenen says. “There are stakes. Yogi played a game where you could strike out. You could lose. That doesn’t mean you don’t try. He was told he couldn’t so many times and look at what remarkable things he did with his life.”
Berra was born 100 years ago and died before many of the kids gathered here were born. He made his MLB debut in 1946, retired as a player in 1965 and stopped coaching in 1989. Yet, everyone here on this day has a story about a time they were touched by his life. Berra connected deeply with people. It didn’t matter if he was talking to a teammate, a waiter, the president or his postman. With Berra, everyone got the same guy.
That this record attempt is taking place one day before the anniversary of his death (and his MLB debut) on Sept. 22 might have elicited him to create one of his popular Yogi-isms. “Well,” he might have said, “we’re a day early, but right on time.”
TO BASEBALL FANS, Yogi Berra is a legend. An MLB Hall of Famer. A man who played in 75 World Series games and won 10 rings — both records unlikely to be broken — and was one of the best “bad ball” hitters in history. The image of Berra leaping into the arms of Yankees pitcher Don Larsen after calling the only perfect game in World Series history in 1956 is indelible in the minds of baseball fans.
“All Yankees fans are Yogi fans,” says Paul Semendinger, a retired principal and adjunct professor at Ramapo College in Mahwah, New Jersey. He is wearing a replica 1939 Lou Gehrig Yankees jersey. “But you can be a Yogi fan without being a Yankees fan.”
Case in point: Semendinger, 57, is here with his 26-year-old son, Ethan, and 87-year-old dad, Paul Sr., “the world’s biggest Ted Williams fan.” (Paul Sr. is wearing a Red Sox jersey.) “You could root for Yogi even if you’re not a fan of his team,” Paul Sr. says, “because he was a good person.”
Semendinger and his son run a Yankees blog and play on a softball team together. He and his dad still meet up a few times a year to play catch in the backyard. “For 87, he still throws a pretty good knuckleball,” Semendinger says.
When Josh Rawitch, the president of the Baseball Hall of Fame, was 10, he sent Berra a baseball card from his home in Los Angeles and asked him to sign it. “It came back with his signature in this perfect penmanship,” Rawitch says. “I was a big fan of baseball history and although I was a Dodgers fan, he was Yogi Berra.” Over the years, Rawitch met Berra multiple times and became a fan of him as a man. “For someone with 10 rings, he never took himself too seriously,” he says. “He had such humility.”
Rawitch is here to display Berra’s Hall of Fame plaque, which a museum employee drove nearly 200 miles from Cooperstown, New York, to Little Falls on Saturday. It’s the first time the plaque has left the Hall since Berra was inducted in 1972.
“It’s rare that we do this,” Rawitch says. “But we knew we wanted to be a part of something so special.”
Anthony “Uncle Tony” Stinger turned 90 this year. He was in the right-field grandstands at Yankee Stadium on Sept. 22, 1946, when Berra made his MLB debut. “It was a Sunday, the second game of a doubleheader against Philadelphia,” Stinger says. “I took the 4 train from Harlem to the stadium, and the Yankees called Yogi up that day. He could hit anything, even a ball a foot off the ground. They didn’t know how to pitch to him.”
Stinger has lived in the Bronx for 53 years and came here with his nieces. Although he’s only spectating, he says he wouldn’t have missed this event for the world. “Yogi would be amazed,” he says, looking around the stadium.
TO MANY, BERRA was a war hero. The St. Louis native signed with the Yankees in 1943 but delayed his MLB career to enlist in the Navy on his 18th birthday and served as a gunner’s mate in World War II. He provided cover from a rocket boat for the troops who landed on Omaha Beach during the D-Day invasion of Normandy on June 6, 1944. He was wounded by enemy fire and earned a Purple Heart, although he famously never received the medal because he didn’t fill out the paperwork. He didn’t want his mother to worry.
Daniel Joseph Clair joined the Marines in 1966 and earned a Purple Heart for his service in Vietnam. He’s here to play catch with his wife, a lifelong Yankees fan. “I met Yogi outside the stadium once,” Clair says. “He took the time to talk to me before he got on the bus.”
To many of the players he coached, Berra was a lifetime friend and confidant.
“I’m getting goose bumps talking about him,” Randolph says, rubbing his arms. “Some of my best memories as a young manager are sitting in my office before games and talking baseball with Yogi. When I think about being the first African American manager in New York history, which I am very proud of, Yogi was very instrumental in that. He taught me so much. I miss him every day.”
Two months after his death, Berra was awarded a posthumous Presidential Medal of Freedom for his military service as well as his civil rights and educational activism, although he would balk at being called an activist. He would say he was just treating people equally, as he would want to be treated.
Berra grew up on The Hill, a heavily Italian area of St. Louis, and later faced prejudice and ridicule for being Italian and not looking like a typical ballplayer. Throughout his life, whether by crossing racial lines or through his work with Athlete Ally on LGBTQ equality — an organization he joined in his 80s — he wasn’t trying to set an example, yet time and again, he did.
Berra befriended Jackie Robinson in 1946 when they played on opposing teams in the International League. The next year, Robinson broke MLB’s color barrier. Before games, Berra would walk across the field at Yankee Stadium to find Robinson and chat with his friend. “I don’t think he was doing it to make a statement, but 60,000 people saw him talking to Jackie,” Berra’s eldest granddaughter, Lindsay Berra, says. “This was 18 years before the Civil Rights Act. He was making a comment, whether he knew it or not.”
When Elston Howard became the Yankees’ first Black player in 1955, Berra began grooming him as his replacement behind the plate. During spring training in segregated Florida, Howard couldn’t ride on the same bus, eat in the same restaurants or stay in the same hotels as his white teammates. So, Berra often joined him at his.
TO PEOPLE WHO never watched baseball, Berra was a cultural phenomenon, a “Jeopardy!” answer, a man they quoted sometimes without knowing who they were quoting.
It ain’t over ’til it’s over.
It’s déjà vu all over again.
You can observe a lot by watching.
If the world were perfect, it wouldn’t be.
Berra was the personification of a cartoon bear, a Yoo-hoo pitchman and, as Wynton Marsalis once said while touring the museum, “the Thelonious Monk of baseball.” He was world famous and as recognizable as any figure in sports, yet he was also the guy his three sons would find downstairs in the mornings having coffee with the postman, garbage man and a few of Montclair’s finest.
Tommy Corizzi is too young to have seen Berra play or coach. In fact, he was born just one year before Berra died. He’s here with his “pop pop,” Tom Corizzi, who loved the idea of spending a Sunday afternoon connecting with his grandson and his favorite team. “Yogi was cool,” Tommy, 11, says. “I want to be in the world record book with him.”
Thirteen-year-old Jake Esarey Elmgart is here with his baseball team. He donated the $2,500 he raised for his bar mitzvah project to this event to help pay for kids with special needs to attend.
Just last week, a local woman handed Lindsay a letter she said she found in a drawer recently. The woman’s son, now in his 30s, wrote the letter to Berra in 2000 — 35 years after he retired — but never sent it. “You were in your car and while you were driving, you pointed at me and put your thumb up,” Justin LaMarca, then 8, wrote in pencil and in cursive. “I yelled to you and said you are my favorite player in the world.”
TO ME, BERRA was my best friend’s grandpa.
I met Lindsay in 2002 when I joined the staff at ESPN The Magazine in New York City, where she worked at the time. We became fast friends. Her family became mine in the way that happens when you live far from your own. Grammy Carmen was chic and sentimental. Grampa Yogi was funny and grumpy and warm and honest, and I think of them every Christmas when I hang the oversized red ceramic ornament they bought for me at New York’s 21 Club. Or at Halloween, because they always answered the door for trick-or-treaters in the same costumes: Grammy Carmen as an adorable witch and Grampa Yogi as Yogi Berra.
A half hour before the record attempt, I’m standing outside the museum with my dad, Fred. We came here in May 2012 to celebrate Berra’s 87th birthday. We toured the museum and watched the Yankees beat the Mariners from a party suite at Yankee Stadium. My dad remembers watching Grampa Yogi interact with fans and former players, singing him “Happy Birthday” and eating pieces of a pinstriped cake.
The previous night, my dad watched a few innings of a game with him in Berra’s living room. “Here’s your chance to ask him anything,” I told him.
My dad was 12 when Berra retired as a player. He grew up on a Belgian horse farm outside of Pittsburgh and never had the chance to see him play in person. He had few opportunities to watch him play on TV because the networks carried only local games back then, plus the Game of the Week on Saturdays. He does, however, remember watching the Pirates beat the Yankees in Game 7 of the 1960 World Series. “I was 7,” he says. “I’m not sure if I remember it as much as I remember the photo of Yogi standing in left field watching Bill Mazeroski’s homer go over the fence. That’s an iconic Pittsburgh picture.”
At the top of the ninth inning in that shocking game (if you’re a Yankees fan), Berra hit a grounder to tie the score 9-9. Then, in the bottom of the ninth, Mazeroski hit a walk-off homer to seal the series for the Pirates. “Yogi said the worst day of his life was watching the ball go over the fence at Forbes Field,” my dad says. (I did tell him to ask the man anything.) “Imagine all he’d experienced in his life, and he said that was his worst day.”
Grampa Yogi died three years after that visit. That weekend was one of many times I watched my best friend share her grandpa with the world. Lindsay had watched her grandmother do so graciously throughout her life, listening with care as people told her how much they loved her husband. But Lindsay didn’t understand how people who had met her grandfather for only a moment, if at all, could feel the same kind of love toward him that she did. After his death, as tributes poured in from around the world, she realized that though their love might not be the same as hers, it is just as real. And it is flowing through this stadium now.
I’M STANDING ON the field precisely 3 meters across from my dad, a baseball glove on my left hand. My dad tosses a baseball my way. I catch it and look around. Baseballs are flying everywhere. People are laughing and dancing and dropping balls. We’re all singing along to John Fogerty’s “Centerfield.”
There’s a mystical quality to the relationship that develops between the two people on either end of a game of catch, and it’s happening for all of us now. Maybe it’s how attuned we’ve become to each other, to subtle shifts in our partner’s body position and the message those movements communicate. I’m ready. Send it my way. Maybe it’s the meditative rhythm of the back-and-forth and how quickly the world narrows to the space between us. Or maybe it’s as simple as the eye contact and focus the act requires.
My dad doesn’t remember the first time we played catch together. I don’t, either. But being here on this day, tossing a baseball methodically with him, I’m transported to a Little League field in Cape Coral, Florida. I am 11, wearing an oversized blue Expos jersey and stirrup socks, and warming up with him before a playoff game. The last time we played catch, I was likely in high school and playing shortstop for the CCHS Seahawks.
Lindsay is playing catch with her boyfriend, Peter, surrounded by her family. She remembers the first time she played catch with her grandpa. “My earliest memories are playing wiffle ball in the front yard at holidays,” she says. “Uncle Dale had broken a window at a neighbor’s house, so we played with something safer.” The real baseballs came out when her grandfather was asked to throw out a first pitch. “He’d call each of the grandkids until someone was available to come up to the house and play catch with him,” Lindsay says. “He didn’t want to embarrass himself on the mound.”
When Berra’s boys were young, he was coaching and away from home during baseball season, so they never had the chance to play catch with their dad. Dale says that while Berra loved to toss the football or shoot baskets with him and his brothers, he believes his dad never wanted them to feel pressure to play baseball. “When I signed with the Mets in 1972, I warmed up with him during spring training,” Larry says. “That’s the only memory I have of playing catch with my dad. But I feel him today.”
Larry is playing catch with his son, Andrew. While Empric watches from the stage, volunteers walk the neatly spaced rows of participants looking for rule breakers: people who are on their phones, rolling the ball rather than throwing it or too young to meet the cutoff (age 7). When the five-minute clock runs out, everyone hoots and cheers and high-fives.
“If Dad were here, he’d probably ask, ‘Why would all these people do this? They don’t have to be here,'” Larry says. “He never understood the impact he had on people just by saying hello, by waving, by inviting them in for coffee. He always said, ‘I just played baseball.’ He never understood the aura he created.”
After several excruciating minutes, Empric walks to the podium to deliver the result. “I can now announce that today … in Little Falls … New Jersey … USA … you had a total of … 1,179 pairs,” he says, and hands Schaenen an oversized plaque, which she thrusts into the air. The crowd erupts. “It’s a new Guinness World Record,” Empric says. “Congratulations! You are officially amazing.”
For a while, no one moves. For nearly an hour, many people stay on the field and soak up the magic flowing between the baselines. Some continue to play catch, others chat with the people they stood next to during the attempt. This is what today was all about. Yogi was many things to many people, and today, he brought us all together.
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Bill Connelly
The penultimate week of the college football regular season gave us plenty of entertainment. We got an incredible comeback in Salt Lake City, we got some resounding blowouts, we got a late Heisman push from Diego Pavia and we got the best ending of the season at the Division II level.
We didn’t really get much change, however. No team in the top 14 of the College Football Playoff rankings lost, and of the 16 ranked teams that won, 15 won by double digits and 10 won by at least 20. The ACC gave us more chaos thanks to Georgia Tech’s no-show against Pitt, but it was a rather chaos-free weekend overall.
Luckily, Rivalry Week is on the way, and it usually delivers. We can still squeeze a little bit of chaos out of the 2025 season, so let’s review Week 13 by looking ahead to Week 14. What do we have in store for college football’s best weekend?
For each category below, games are listed in chronological order. All times Eastern.
At-large playoff bids
One thing about all the top teams winning this weekend is: The playoff picture remains extremely unsettled. As a general heuristic, I tend to think of any two-loss SEC or Big Ten team or any one-loss Big 12 or ACC team as safely in the field. But with two weeks remaining, we have more of those teams than we have playoff slots: There are six SEC teams and four Big Ten teams with two or fewer losses, plus two Big 12 teams with one loss. Someone deserving is currently on the outside looking in.
Rivalry Week could alter that picture, of course, though with each of the current top 13 in the CFP rankings favored — 10 by double-digits — that’s not a guarantee.
Friday
No. 6 Ole Miss at Mississippi State (noon, ABC) — SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 13.9 (82% win probability)
No. 12 Utah at Kansas (noon, ESPN) — SP+ projection: Utah by 15.1 (83%)
No. 4 Georgia at No. 16 Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m., ABC) — SP+ projection: UGA by 12.9 (79%)
No. 2 Indiana at Purdue (Friday, 7:30 p.m., NBC) — SP+ projection: IU by 33.9 (98%)
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 17 Texas (Friday, 7:30 p.m., ABC) — SP+ projection: A&M by 5.3 (63%)
Six potential at-large teams play Friday, though Indiana, A&M and Georgia are virtually assured of playoff bids at this point. We’ve seen some pundits attempting to will a “The committee might leave Ole Miss out if Lane Kiffin is leaving!” narrative into existence. While I think this is preposterous on its face — Kiffin isn’t the one making the plays for a 10-1 team, and if the committee indeed chose to downgrade the Rebels because of that, we need to tear down the entire committee structure and go back to a formula* — I don’t think the Rebels want to find out what happens if they lose and most of the teams directly below them win.
(* We should go back to a formula anyway, but that’s neither here nor there.)
Utah just barely kept hope alive Saturday. With Joe Jackson and the Kansas State run game playing at an unstoppable level, the Utes gave up points on five straight first-half possessions to fall behind 31-21 at halftime. They responded with a 14-0 burst, but K-State responded with a 16-0 run to seize total control. Jackson’s 24-yard score seemed to put the game almost out of reach, but Tao Johnson returned a 2-point pass 100 yards to make it 47-37.
We were only getting started. Devon Dampier found Larry Simmons for a 20-yard score with 2:47 left, and after a K-State three-and-out (the Wildcats’ first since the first drive of the game), Dampier raced 59 yards on fourth-and-1 to set up his own go-ahead touchdown with 56 seconds remaining. Lander Barton sealed the comeback with an interception.
Saturday
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 18 Michigan (noon, Fox) — SP+ projection: OSU by 14.6 (82%)
No. 13 Miami at Pitt (noon, ABC) — SP+ projection: Miami by 6.0 (65%)
No. 5 Texas Tech at West Virginia (noon, ESPN) — SP+ projection: Tech by 31.5 (98%)
UCF at No. 11 BYU (1 p.m., ESPN2) — SP+ projection: BYU by 19.1 (88%)
No. 7 Oregon at Washington (3:30 p.m., CBS) — SP+ projection: Oregon by 6.7 (66%)
LSU at No. 8 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., ABC) — SP+ projection: OU by 11.7 (77%)
No. 14 Vanderbilt at No. 20 Tennessee (3:30 p.m., ESPN) – SP+ projection: UT by 0.7 (52%)
No. 10 Alabama at Auburn (7:30 p.m., ABC) – SP+ projection: Bama by 6.0 (65%)
No. 9 Notre Dame at Stanford (10:30 p.m., ESPN) – SP+ projection: Irish by 31.7 (98%)
In a different year, Texas and Michigan could both be in “Pull a Rivalry Week upset, and you’re in” situations. Thanks to Georgia Tech and USC losing, the Longhorns and Wolverines could rank 15th and 16th, respectively, when the new CFP rankings come out Tuesday. That would put them in range, but if Vanderbilt beats Tennessee and if BYU and Notre Dame win blowouts as expected, there just might not be space in the inn.
There are two different ways to root for playoff chaos, I guess. On one hand, you could root for lots of upsets and general nonsense, which is where I tend to lean. That means Go Mississippi State! Go Georgia Tech! Go Michigan! Go Pitt! Et cetera. But upsets might actually clarify the picture a bit in the end, so the other chaos route involves rooting for whatever gives the committee the biggest possible headache. That means Michigan and Texas both pulling upsets, Vanderbilt toppling Tennessee and maybe Ole Miss falling, but chalk winning out otherwise.
Group of 5 playoff bid
Temple at North Texas (Friday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN) — SP+ projection: UNT by 24.0 (93% win probability)
James Madison at Coastal Carolina (Saturday, 3:45 p.m., ESPNU) — SP+ projection: JMU by 21.6 (91%)
Charlotte at No. 24 Tulane (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ESPNU) — SP+ projection: Tulane by 33.8 (98%)
Barring extreme chaos — which might open the door for the Mountain West champ — we’re pretty much locked into a two-team battle for the Group of 5’s guaranteed CFP slot: James Madison vs. the American Conference champ. We’re exceedingly likely to get a Tulane-North Texas battle for the American title in two weeks, and while it’s hard to say how the rankings might play out (since the committee has only deigned to rank Tulane at the moment, and barely at that), it appears these three teams have a greater than 95% chance among them to make the playoff.
While North Texas put up absurd numbers Saturday against Rice, and Tulane pulled away late against Temple, JMU played with fire against a feisty Washington State team. The Cougars nearly upset two potential playoff teams in recent weeks (Ole Miss, Virginia), and they led JMU until Wayne Knight’s 58-yard burst up the middle with 6:24 left gave the Dukes a 24-20 win. One would think the committee would rank JMU this week, but I’d have ranked them a month ago, so who knows?
Conference title races
SEC
Four teams still have a shot at the SEC title, and their games are all listed in the CFP section above.
• Texas A&M is in the SEC championship game with a win over Texas, but if the Aggies lose they’re probably out unless both Bama and Ole Miss lose.
• Alabama is most likely in with a win over Auburn since the Tide boast a win over Georgia and, in a multiway tie that depends on the “conference opponent winning percentage” tiebreaker, they should have the advantage.
• Georgia is in the clubhouse at 7-1 in SEC play and would win tiebreakers against Ole Miss (because of a head-to-head win) and, if Texas A&M loses, the Aggies (because of the Dawgs’ record against common opponents). But if A&M and Bama both win as favorites (there’s a 41% chance of that, per SP+), the Dawgs are out. I doubt they would mind much.
• Ole Miss probably needs a win plus Bama and A&M losses. (I say “probably” because we still don’t know for sure how the “conference opponent winning percentage” tiebreaker will play out. Giant superconferences can get really messy.)
Big Ten
We probably know what we’re getting in the Big Ten, but it would take only one upset to throw things for a loop. Indiana is unbeaten and needs only to beat Purdue to clinch its first trip to Indianapolis (for a football game, anyway), and since there’s a 98% chance of that happening, that tamps down hopes for major chaos. But if Michigan upsets Ohio State, that likely puts Oregon in if the Ducks win at Washington. If we get double upsets in Ann Arbor and Seattle, however, that puts Michigan in.
There’s an 80% chance of both Indiana and Ohio State winning, per SP+, but Oregon and Michigan both kept hopes alive by taking care of business Saturday. Michigan took a 14-point lead over Maryland early in the second quarter, traded blows with the Terrapins for a little while, then laid the hammer down in a 45-20 win.
Oregon, meanwhile, had to work 60 full minutes against No. 15 USC but got the job done in mature fashion. USC cut the Ducks’ lead to 35-27 early in the fourth quarter, but Oregon responded with an 11-play, nearly six-minute drive to go back up 15. It was a dreadfully penalty-heavy affair — the teams combined for 231 rushing yards and 233 penalty yards — but Oregon was never in serious danger. That all but locked up the Ducks’ playoff bid, but it probably won’t earn them a shot at repeating as Big Ten champions.
Big 12
Arizona at No. 25 Arizona State (Friday, 9 p.m., Fox) — SP+ projection: Arizona by 4.0 (60% win probability)
As with the Big Ten, we probably know what we’re getting in the Big 12 championship game: a BYU-Texas Tech rematch. There’s an 86% chance both BYU and Tech win this coming weekend, per SP+, and if they do, they’re in. If they don’t, however, the Territorial Cup and the Utah-Kansas game above could both play a role.
If Arizona State beats Arizona — an upset, according to SP+ — the Sun Devils could get back to Jerry World to defend its title if Kansas upsets Utah and either BYU or Texas Tech also loses. Utah, meanwhile, needs a win, wins by BYU and Arizona State and a massive upset loss for Texas Tech. Neither of these scenarios are likely, and we’re basically looking at a 98.8% chance that either Tech or BYU wins the conference crown. But true chaos lovers know that if there’s a 98.8% chance that something happens, there’s a 1.2% chance that it doesn’t!
ACC
In addition to Miami-Pitt above, three more games will play huge roles in sorting out an incredible ACC mess.
Wake Forest at Duke (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ACCN) – SP+ projection: Duke by 0.4 (51% win probability)
Virginia Tech at No. 19 Virginia (Saturday, 7 p.m., ESPN) – SP+ projection: UVA by 22.2 (92%)
SMU at California (Saturday, 8 p.m., ESPN2) – SP+ projection: SMU by 16.5 (85%)
Pitt remains as antisocial as its coach. A week after falling out of the CFP rankings because of a blowout loss to Notre Dame, Pat Narduzzi’s Panthers went down to Atlanta and rolled over Georgia Tech, all but eliminating the Yellow Jackets from ACC contention. Pitt led 28-0 just 19 minutes in, and while Tech was able to close to within 35-28 with 4:51 left after an offensive burst and a cataclysmic fake punt by Pitt, the Panthers clinched the win with a 56-yard touchdown run by freshman Ja’Kyrian Turner. (Subbing in for the injured Desmond Reid, Turner rushed for 201 yards against Tech’s dreadful defense.)
Now we have three 6-1 teams (Virginia, Pitt and SMU), two of which came into this weekend unranked, followed by 6-2 Georgia Tech and 5-2 Miami and Duke. If all three of the 6-1 teams win, Virginia and SMU will play for the ACC title because Pitt has the inferior record against common opponents. And obviously if only two of the three 6-1 teams win, we know who’s in.
But since when has the orderly thing happened in this conference? Just know that tiebreakers like “conference opponent win percentage” (which could be very close) and “higher SportSource Analytics team rating” could come into play. And with games in all three primary windows Saturday, this could take all day (and into early Sunday) to straighten out. Hell yeah, let’s get weird.
American
Navy at Memphis (Thursday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN) — SP+ projection: Memphis by 11.5 (76% win probability)
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic (Saturday, noon, ESPN+) — SP+ projection: ECU by 11.1 (76%)
Rice at South Florida (Saturday, 7 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: USF by 27.3 (96%)
Per SP+, there’s a 91% chance that both Tulane and North Texas will win Saturday, and if they do, they’ll play in the American title game. But at 6-1 in the conference, Navy could pounce if either suffers a shocking upset. And if Navy also falls as an underdog at Memphis, the door might open back up for USF or East Carolina. And a blend of computer rankings (including SP+) could end up involved. But again, we have a better than 90% chance of order.
Sun Belt
Troy at Southern Miss (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: USM by 2.5 (56% win probability)
This one is straightforward: James Madison has clinched the Sun Belt East, while the winner of Troy-Southern Miss will represent the West as a hefty underdog against the Dukes.
Mountain West
San Diego State at New Mexico (Friday, 3:30 p.m., CBSSN) — SP+ projection: SDSU by 4.7 (62% win probability)
Boise State at Utah State (Friday, 4 p.m., CBS) — SP+ projection: BSU by 3.5 (59%)
UNLV at Nevada (Saturday, 9 p.m., CBSSN) — SP+ projection: UNLV by 15.8 (84%)
This one is straightforward at first: We have one team at 6-1 (San Diego State) and three at 5-2 (Boise State, UNLV and New Mexico). If SDSU beats New Mexico, then Boise State holds the tiebreaker over UNLV and would be in with a win; if the Broncos lose, UNLV is in with a win.
However, a New Mexico upset and a large tie at 6-2 could send us screaming toward the “blended computer rankings (not including SP+ this time)” tiebreaker. Algorithms could get their moment in the sun in the G5.
Conference USA
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (Saturday, 2 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: WKU by 3.7 (59% win probability)
Kennesaw State at Liberty (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBSSN) — SP+ projection: KSU by 4.0 (60%)
Convenient: We have a three-way tie at 6-1 with Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State and Western Kentucky, and WKU and JSU play each other, so the winner is guaranteed a spot. If KSU wins, the Owls will play the WKU-JSU winner for the title. Easy peasy. But if the Owls lose, it could come down to either Jacksonville State’s head-to-head win over Kennesaw (if the Gamecocks lose to WKU) or, say it with me now, “blended computer rankings” if WKU loses to JSU.
MAC
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan (Tuesday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN2) — SP+ projection: WMU by 8.6% (70% win probability)
Ohio at Buffalo (Friday, noon, ESPNU) — SP+ projection: Ohio by 2.9 (57%)
Toledo at Central Michigan (Saturday, noon, ESPN+) — SP+ projection: Toledo by 10.3 (74%)
Ball State at Miami (Ohio) (Saturday, noon, CBSSN) — SP+ projection: Miami by 20.3 (90%)
By Wednesday morning, we’ll know if this race is messy or super messy. At 6-1, WMU is in with a Tuesday win over EMU. But there’s a four-way tie between CMU, Miami, Ohio and Toledo at 5-2. Most big-group tiebreakers seem to favor WMU and Miami, though Toledo’s head-to-head win over Miami could also come in handy.
Bowl eligibility
There are 21 5-6 teams in action this weekend, plus 5-5 Army, needing wins to ensure bowl eligibility. (Technically one of the 5-6 teams, Delaware, is ineligible for a bowl, but the Blue Hens would get one with a win if there aren’t enough eligible teams to fill all the slots.)
Based on SP+ projections, about 10 of them will win. Quite a few are listed above — Auburn (vs. Bama), Buffalo (vs. Ohio), Kansas (vs. Utah), Mississippi State (at Ole Miss), Rice (at USF), Temple (at North Texas), UCF (at BYU) — but we have loads more to follow, including a trio of “the winner bowls” matchups between 5-6 teams Saturday afternoon.
The winner bowls
5-6 Georgia Southern at 5-6 Marshall (Saturday, 1:30 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: Marshall by 10.2 (74% win probability)
5-6 Arkansas State at 5-6 Appalachian State (Saturday, 2:30 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: App State by 1.8 (54%)
5-6 Penn State at 5-6 Rutgers (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., BTN) — SP+ projection: PSU by 14.4 (82%)
Penn State has played very well under interim head coach Terry Smith, enough to build at least a little bit of “Maybe just hire Terry?” buzz. The Nittany Lions manhandled Nebraska 37-10 on Saturday — with Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton combining for 204 rushing yards and four touchdowns, just like the good old days — to get within one game of .500. It would be a shock if they suffered a letdown against Rutgers, but the Scarlet Knights do still have a decent offense. (Defense, not so much.)
Other 5-6 teams
5-6 Kentucky at Louisville (Saturday, noon, ACCN) — SP+ projection: Louisville by 7.1 (67% win probability)
Houston at 5-6 Baylor (Saturday, noon, TNT) — SP+ projection: UH by 3.4 (42%)
Colorado at 5-6 Kansas State (Saturday, noon, FS1) — SP+ projection: K-State by 15.4 (83%)
UTEP at 5-6 Delaware (Saturday, 1 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: Delaware by 5.0 (62%)
Louisiana-Monroe at 5-6 Louisiana (Saturday, 3 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: UL by 15.6 (84%)
South Alabama at 5-6 Texas State (Saturday, 3 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: TXST by 11.4 (76%)
5-5 Army at UTSA (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: UTSA by 7.3 (68%)
5-6 Florida State at Florida (Saturday, 4:30 p.m., ESPN2) — SP+ projection: FSU by 7.1 (67%)
Oregon State at 5-6 Washington State (Saturday, 6:30 p.m., The CW) — SP+ projection: Wazzu by 16.6 (85%)
I usually find myself rooting for the 5-6 team in these types of games, but I’ll be rooting particularly hard for Kansas State (because the Wildcats really have rallied to play mostly decent ball down the stretch), Texas State (because the Bobcats are impossibly entertaining and dropped a series of midseason heartbreakers), and Washington State (because it played incredibly well in three trips east but fell to Ole Miss, Virginia and James Madison by one-score margins).
This week in SP+
The SP+ rankings have been updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the five teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:
North Texas: up 4.0 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 24th to 18th)
UNLV: up 3.6 points (from 64th to 54th)
Wake Forest: up 3.5 points (from 63rd to 52nd)
South Florida: up 3.2 points (from 38th to 28th)
Vanderbilt: up 3.2 points (from 18th to 13th)
With maybe the most video-game-like offensive display I’ve seen, North Texas placed two players on the Heisman of the Week list below and rose into the SP+ top 20. (That’s higher than Boise State ranked ahead of last year’s CFP, by the way. James Madison is in the top 30, too.) Vandy’s ridiculously dominant performance against Kentucky earned the Commodores a late rise as well.
Moving down
Here are the five teams whose ratings fell the most:
Florida: down 4.9 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from 50th to 69th)
Syracuse: down 4.5 points (from 101st to 118th)
UCLA: down 3.9 points (from 85th to 101st)
Colorado: down 3.3 points (from 78th to 96th)
Illinois: down 3.2 points (from 23rd to 32nd)
I guess the surprise here is that someone fell further than Syracuse. At 69th overall, this is officially Florida’s worst team since 1979, when the Gators went 0-10-1 in Charley Pell’s first season. If you’re going to struggle, I guess you might as well struggle at a historic level.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second and so on). And with just two weeks remaining in the race, we have ourselves a new leader.
0:57
Highlight: Diego Pavia sets Vandy record with 484 passing yards in win over UK
Pavia accounts for 532 total yards and six total touchdowns as the No. 14 Commodores blow out the Wildcats in Nashville, 45-17.
Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (33-for-39 passing for 484 yards, 5 TDs and 1 INT, plus 63 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against Kentucky).
2. Arch Manning, Texas (18-for-30 passing for 389 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown and a receiving touchdown against Arkansas).
3. Drew Mestemaker, North Texas (19-for-23 passing for 469 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown against Rice).
4. Joe Jackson, Kansas State (24 carries for 293 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 19 receiving yards against Utah).
5. Raleek Brown, Arizona State (22 carries for 255 yards and a touchdown, plus 33 receiving yards and a TD against Colorado).
6. LJ Martin, BYU (32 carries for 222 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 44 receiving yards against Cincinnati).
7. Wyatt Young, North Texas (8 catches for 295 yards and 2 touchdowns against Rice).
8. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina (16-for-20 passing for 274 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 82 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Coastal Carolina).
9. Ja’Kyrian Turner, Pitt (21 carries for 201 yards and a touchdown, plus 12 receiving yards against Georgia Tech).
10. Jordan Kwiatkowski, Central Michigan (14 tackles, 4.5 TFLs, 1 sack and 1 forced fumble against Kent State).
What a week for enormous performances. Any of the top seven guys here might have finished first in some other week. When I was watching Wyatt Young break what felt like 17 tackles on his way to an 84-yard touchdown against Rice, I thought he might take the top spot. He ended up seventh.
In the end, I didn’t have any doubt about the No. 1 spot. The biggest story for Vanderbilt against Kentucky was that its defense showed up for the first time in a few weeks — a very welcome sight with Tennessee on deck in a potential win-and-in game — but Diego Pavia was absolutely ridiculous as well. In his past three games, he has thrown for 1,226 yards (408.7 per game!) with 11 touchdowns and only one interception. Three straight iffy performances in October threw him off the Heisman path a bit, but as you’ll see below, his November work has put him a nose in front in the points race, at least.
Honorable mention:
• Carson Beck, Miami (27-for-32 passing for 320 yards and 4 touchdowns against Virginia Tech).
• Devon Dampier, Utah (18-for-33 passing for 259 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 110 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Kansas State).
• Joe Fagnano, UConn (33-for-46 passing for 446 yards and 3 touchdowns against Florida Atlantic).
• Kevin Jennings, SMU (29-for-37 passing for 303 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown against Louisville).
• Amari Odom, Kennesaw State (24-for-34 passing for 387 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus 52 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Missouri State).
• Darryl Peterson, Wisconsin (6 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 forced fumble and 2 pass breakups against Illinois).
• Dominic Richardson, Tulsa (28 carries for 203 yards and a touchdown, plus 22 receiving yards against Army).
• Jalen Stroman, Notre Dame (eight tackles, two TFLs and a pick-six against Syracuse).
Joe Fagnano threw for 446 yards, and I couldn’t even squeeze him in the top 10!
Through 13 weeks, here are your points leaders. (Points over the past four weeks is the tiebreaker):
1. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (34 points)
2. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (29 points, 13 in the past four weeks)
3. Ty Simpson, Alabama (29 points, zero in the past four weeks)
4. Taylen Green, Arkansas (27 points)
5. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (26 points)
6. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (25 points, six in the past four weeks)
7. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (25 points, zero in the past four weeks)
8. Demond Williams Jr., Washington (21 points)
9. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (18 points)
10. Drew Mestemaker, North Texas (16 points, eight in the past four weeks)
We still have seven players within 10 points of the lead, so this is far from settled.
The current ESPN BET betting odds still have Mendoza (-130) and Sayin (+425) leading the way, with Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love (+500) and Pavia (+600) as the only other realistic contenders. (A&M’s Marcel Reed is at +1400, and somehow Georgia’s Gunner Stockton is only at +3500.) We still have time for a shift in conventional wisdom – I’d personally view this as a three-way tie between Mendoza, Sayin and Pavia at this point – but it still looks like we may be gearing up for a winner-take-all Mendoza-Sayin matchup in the Big Ten championship game.
My 20 favorite games of the weekend
It’s fair to admit that most of the biggest games of the week weren’t incredibly gripping, but if you did a little digging around, you were rewarded.
1. Division II: Benedict 25, Wingate 24. This was the only possible choice for the No. 1 spot. Benedict trailed 24-7 in the first round of the D-II playoffs, and Wingate was lining up for a 21-yard chip-shot field goal to go up 20. But Isaiah Isidore blocked the field goal and returned it 95 yards for a touchdown. Then Tre Simmons scored with 3:36 left to make it 24-19. The Bulldogs got the ball back at their 14 with 19 seconds left and quickly threw three incompletions. It was time to try one of those lateral-fest plays that never work.
It worked.
1:12
Division II playoff game ends on unbelievable cross-field lateral TD play
Benedict stuns Wingate with a cross-field lateral to score a long touchdown to advance in the Division II playoffs.
It apparently worked so well that the cameraperson lost his or her mind halfway through. Malik Mullins’ touchdown, after a perfectly timed lateral and an absurd burst of speed, gave Benedict the win and a spot in the second round. Best ending of the season.
2. No. 12 Utah 51, Kansas State 47. I don’t know what happened to Utah’s defense in this one, and I don’t know whether the CFP committee will punish the Utes for falling short of expectations, but this was a magnificent game all the same.
3. FCS: Bethune-Cookman 38, Florida A&M 34. The HBCU universe always provides drama, but it outdid itself this week, not only with the Benedict game but also with this Florida Classic thriller, which saw four lead changes — and four long touchdowns — in the final eight minutes. Jamal Hailey put FAMU up 27-24 with a 72-yard touchdown run, but Bethune-Cookman went ahead 44 seconds later on a 67-yard pass from journeyman Timmy McClain to Javon Ross. FAMU went back ahead with 2:19 remaining, but on fourth-and-8 with 27 seconds left, McClain found Josh Evans somehow wide open for a 41-yard score.
The moment the Classic was ours 🫨🫨🫨🫨 pic.twitter.com/FNmtrPjbnf
— 🏈 Bethune-Cookman Football (@BCUGridiron) November 23, 2025
4. UConn 48, Florida Atlantic 45. UConn hasn’t had the greatest attention span in the world against lesser teams, but that’s been great for our entertainment. The Huskies led 24-3 after the first quarter, but FAU took the lead on a 90-yard Dominique Henry catch-and-run midway through the third. UConn responded with 14 quick points, but FAU took another lead with 2:11 remaining. UConn drove 75 yards in 1:45 to make it 48-45, but FAU drove 56 yards in just 22 seconds … but badly missed a 36-yard field goal at the buzzer.
Wheeeee!
5. Duke 32, North Carolina 25. UCLA gave us one of the worst fake field goals you’ll ever see late Saturday night (I’m not even going to share a link; you’ll have to look it up to find that monstrosity), but that only provided balance to the universe because a few hours earlier Duke pulled off one of the smoothest fakes you’ll ever see. Run, kicker, run!
DUKE PULLS OFF THE FAKE FIELD GOAL 🤯 @DukeFOOTBALL pic.twitter.com/syr9FoOdue
— ACC Network (@accnetwork) November 22, 2025
Todd Pelino‘s sprint set up the winning TD.
6. Tulsa 26, Army 25. With its methodical, relentless option game, you would figure Army would be one of the worst teams against which to attempt a late comeback. But trailing 25-14 with less than five minutes remaining, Tulsa scored on a 48-yard Seth Morgan field goal, then picked off a Cale Hellums pass (!) and scored with 1:53 left. The Golden Hurricane missed a game-tying 2-point conversion and couldn’t recover the onside kick, but no worries! They stuffed Army on fourth down, and Dominic Richardson rushed five times for 37 yards to set Morgan up for a game-winning 27-yarder.
7. Iowa 20, Michigan State 17. This one was remarkably similar to Tulsa-Army, only it was the favorite making the comeback. After a dire three quarters, Iowa found itself down 17-7 heading into the fourth, but a Drew Stevens field goal and a Jacob Gill touchdown tied the game with 1:29 left. Overtime? Nope! Michigan State went four-and-out, and Mark Gronowski completed three passes for 54 yards to set Stevens up with a 44-yarder. Being that he’s awesome, Stevens made it with ease.
DREW STEVENS WINS IT FOR IOWA ON SENIOR DAY ‼️@HawkeyeFootball pic.twitter.com/xl3IO3Wl9g
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 23, 2025
It was his fourth career winner.
8. FCS: Tarleton State 45, Austin Peay 44 (OT). On one hand, Tarleton State has slipped a bit in November and won’t enter the FCS playoffs with great title odds. On the other hand, all we care is that we’re entertained! And this game was bonkers. APSU went up early and led 28-14 at halftime, and TSU had to tie the game on three separate occasions — including on a 41-yard Corbin Poston field goal with four seconds left — to force overtime. The Texans scored in two plays in overtime, but APSU responded with a 25-yard Chris Parson run on its first play. The Governors, 18.5-point underdogs, naturally went for two points and the win … and Parson airmailed an open receiver. Oof.
1:18
Austin Peay Governors vs. Tarleton Texans: Full Highlights
Austin Peay Governors vs. Tarleton Texans: Full Highlights
9. FCS: South Dakota State 34, North Dakota 31 (OT). You know who didn’t airmail an open receiver? SDSU’s Jack Henry. The Jackrabbits trailed 20-7 with 17 minutes left but made a 21-0 charge before UND tied the game at 28-28 with 1:52 left. The Fighting Hawks settled for a field goal to open overtime, and SDSU was looking at a long-range FG to tie, but Henry scrambled to his right and found a leaping Grahm Goering for the game-winner.
0:24
Jack Henry throws 23-yard touchdown pass vs. North Dakota
Jack Henry connects for 23-yard TD pass
Not only was this a clutch play, but it was a season-saver — the Jackrabbits edged their way into the FCS playoffs because of it.
10. Louisiana 34, Arkansas State 30 (Thursday). We got a wacky win probability chart for this one. ASU led at halftime thanks to both a Cody Sigler fumble return touchdown and a Chauncy Cobb kick return score. UL eased ahead in the second half, but ASU drove 89 yards in just over two late minutes. Unfortunately, the Red Wolves needed a 90th yard. Jaylen Raynor was stopped at the 1 as time expired.
11. Northwestern 38, Minnesota 35.
12. New Mexico State 34, UTEP 31.
13. Louisiana Tech 34, Liberty 28 (OT).
14. ForeverLawn Bowl: Wabash 32, Ohio Northern 31.
15. FCS: Albany 31, Monmouth 24.
16. TCU 17, No. 23 Houston 14.
17. Kennesaw State 41, Missouri State 34.
18. FCS: Tennessee Tech 20, UT Martin 17.
19. Division III: Wilkes 37, Shenandoah 35.
20. FCS: Montana State 31, Montana 28.
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Bradford Doolittle
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Bradford Doolittle
ESPN Staff Writer
- MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Been with ESPN since 2013
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David Schoenfield
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David Schoenfield
ESPN Senior Writer
- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
It’s hot stove season! The 2025-26 MLB offseason is officially here, and we have you covered with grades and analysis for every major signing and trade this winter.
Whether it’s a big-money free agent signing that changes the course of your team’s future or a blockbuster trade, we’ll weigh in with what it all means for next season and beyond.
ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield will evaluate each move as it happens, so follow along here — this story will continue to be updated. Check back in for the freshest analysis through the start of spring training.
Related links: Tracker | Top 50 free agents | Fantasy spin
Mets get:
2B Marcus Semien
Rangers get:
OF Brandon Nimmo
Mets grade: C+
One-for-one swaps of quality veterans are rare enough these days that when one lands, and people are familiar with both players, the label “blockbuster” starts to get thrown around in a way that would make Frantic Frank Lane roll his eyes. This deal, which brings Semien to New York for career Met Nimmo, is interesting. It is also a trade involving two post-30 players carrying multiple seasons of pricey contracts. Lackluster would be a better description than blockbuster. The valuations on this deal at Baseball Trade Values illustrate nicely the underwater contracts involved.
For the Mets, it’s important to underscore the fact that Semien is 35 years old. Though he challenged for AL MVP during Texas’ championship season in 2023, his offensive numbers have since headed south, as tends to happen to middle infielders with his expanding chronology. Over the past two seasons, his bat has been just below league average — and while there is plenty of value in being roughly average, it’s still a precarious baseline for a player on the downside of his career. His offensive forecast isn’t as good as that of New York’s heretofore presumed regular at second base, Jeff McNeil, who might still get plenty of run at other positions.
That said, Semien is a much better defender than McNeil. Semien is coming off his second career Gold Glove, an honor backed up by consistently strong fielding metrics that have marked his play at the keystone ever since he moved over from shortstop. Though Semien’s contract features a higher average annual value than Nimmo ($25 million in terms of the luxury tax calculation versus $20.5 million), it’s of shorter duration and the move will cut into New York’s considerable longer-term obligations.
One thing that is head-scratching here: The Mets are pretty deep in high-quality infield prospects, from Luisangel Acuna to Ronny Mauricio to Jett Williams, all of whom carry considerably more upside than Semien at this point.
Rangers grade: C+
If you ignore positional adjustments, Nimmo is a better hitter than Semien and should be a considerable upgrade for Texas in the outfield compared with what the Rangers had been getting from the recently non-tendered Adolis Garcia. He’s not as good a defender as Garcia, especially in arm strength and, in fact, is likelier to play in left in Texas rather than Garcia’s old spot in right. As mentioned, Semien was a Gold Glover at his position and so now, in their effort to remake an offense that needed an overhaul, you worry that the Rangers are putting a dent in their defense.
We’ll see how that shakes out as the offseason unfolds, but for now, we can focus on Nimmo’s bat and the possibility that his numbers could get a bump from the switch in venues. He’s typically hit better on the road than at pitcher-friendly Citi Field, and Globe Life Field, while strangely stingy overall last season, has typically been a solid place to hit for left-handed batters.
The project in Texas is clear. It’s about not just improving the offensive production but also pursuing that goal by shifting the focus of the attack. Nimmo’s power bat is a slim upgrade on Semien and a downgrade from Garcia. But Nimmo is a much better hitter for average than both, and he has the best plate discipline of the trio. These are both traits the Rangers’ offense very much needed.
Nimmo’s contract is a problem, but it’s more of a longer-term issue than it will be in 2026, when he’ll make $5.5 million less than Semien. Texas is looking to reshuffle while reigning in the spending, and this is the kind of deal that aids that agenda. The Rangers can worry about the real downside of Nimmo’s deal later. For now, they can hope that moving to a new vista for the first time will boost Nimmo’s numbers, which have settled a tier below where they were during his Mets prime. — Bradford Doolittle
Orioles get:
LF Taylor Ward
Angels get:
RHP Grayson Rodriguez
Orioles grade: D
The first major trade of last offseason came on Nov. 22, when Cincinnati dealt Jonathan India to Kansas City for Brady Singer. This one leaked on Nov. 18, so we’re getting an earlier start. Given the relatively tepid nature of this year’s free agent class, the hope is that this deal is the vanguard of a coming baseball swap meet. Trades are fun.
Alas, although it was easy to understand the reasoning for both sides in the aforementioned Reds-Royals deal, I’m not sure I get this one so much from the Orioles side. The caveat is that maybe Baltimore’s brass, which obviously knows a lot more about Rodriguez than I do, has good reason to think that Gray-Rod (just made that one up) is not likely to live up to his considerable pre-MLB hype.
I don’t like to get too actuarial about these things, but you kind of have to be in this case because Ward will be a free agent after the 2026 season whereas Rodriguez has four seasons of team control left on his service time clock. Thus, even if Rodriguez is likely to need an adjustment period this season as he attempts to come back from the injuries that cost him all of 2025, Baltimore would have had plenty of time to let that play out.
Ward turns 32 next month, likely putting him at the outer rim of his career prime. He has been a decent player — an average of 3.0 bWAR over the past four years — but his skill set is narrow. Ward has been a fixture in left field the past couple of seasons and has shown diminishment both on defense and on the bases. He’s someone you acquire for his bat.
On that front, Ward hit a career-high 36 homers in 2025, but his underlying Statcast-generated expected numbers suggest he overachieved in that area a bit. The righty-swinging Ward does generate power to the opposite field, but his power game is still likely to see a negative impact from the move to Camden Yards. He’s patient at the plate to the point of occasional passivity, as he’s almost always hunting a pitch to drive, even if that means taking a couple of strikes.
That’s not a bad thing, but that approach, combined with a fly ball-heavy distribution, has led to a consistently plummeting average: .281 to .253 to .246 to .228. He’s a take-and-rake guy who doesn’t generate enough fear from pitchers to keep them out of the zone, which might supercharge his walk rate enough to bring his OBP up to an acceptable level, which it won’t be given the batting average trend.
And all of this would be fine for one year of a productive hitter likely to earn $12-14 million through the arbitration process. But at the cost of four years of a pitcher with Rodriguez’s ceiling? I’m not seeing it.
Angels grade: A-
This is about upside for an Angels staff desperate for a true No. 1 starter. To expect Rodriguez to fill that need in 2026 is a lot, and perhaps, given his durability issues, he will never get there. His big league results (97 ERA+, 3.80 FIP over 43 starts in 2023 and 2024) are solid but nothing special. The allure of Rodriguez remains the combination of high ceiling and controllable seasons.
And the ceiling is very high. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked Rodriguez as the game’s top pitching prospect in 2022 and rated him nearly as high in 2023. The mere possibility of Gray-Rod (did it again) fulfilling that potential in an Angels uniform is an exciting notion for fans in Anaheim.
Whether or not there is much of a possibility of Rodriguez getting there is almost beside the point. I’d feel better about this if he were headed to an organization with a better track record of turning around underachieving/injury-prone hurlers, but maybe the Angels can make some strides in this area.
The deal opens up a hole in the outfield for the Angels with no obvious plug-in solution from the organization. But finding a free agent replacement who approximates or exceeds Ward’s production shouldn’t break the bank. Here’s a vote for going after Cody Bellinger.
The possibility of that kind of upgrade and maybe someday a fully realized Gray-Rod, all for the low-low price of one season of Taylor Ward? Sign me up. — Doolittle
The deal: 5 years, $92.5 million
Grade: A-
If there was an award for free agent prediction most to likely come true, Josh Naylor returning to the Seattle Mariners would have been the front-runner, so it’s hardly a surprise that this is the first significant signing of the offseason (pending a physical). As soon as the Mariners’ season ended with that heartbreaking loss in Game 7 of the ALCS, the front office made it clear that re-signing Naylor was its top priority. Such public vocalizations at that level are rare — and the Mariners backed them up with a five-year contract.
It’s easy to understand why they wanted Naylor back. The Mariners have been searching for a long-term solution at first base for, oh, going on 20 years — really, since they traded John Olerud in 2004. Ty France gave them a couple solid seasons in 2021 and 2022, but since 2005 only the Pirates’ first basemen have produced a lower OPS than Seattle’s.
Naylor, meanwhile, came over at the trade deadline from Arizona and provided a huge spark down the stretch, hitting .299/.341/.490 with nine home runs and 33 RBIs in 54 games, good for 2.2 WAR. Including his time with the Diamondbacks, he finished at .295/.353/.462 with 20 home runs in 2025. Given the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park, it’s not easy to attract free agent hitters to Seattle, but Naylor spoke about how he loves hitting there. The numbers back that up: In 43 career games at T-Mobile, he has hit .304 and slugged .534.
Importantly for a Seattle lineup that is heavy on strikeouts, Naylor is a high-contact hitter in the middle of the order; he finished with the 17th-best strikeout rate among qualified hitters in 2025. Naylor’s entire game is a bit of an oxymoron. He ranks in just the seventh percentile in chase rate but still had a nearly league-average walk rate (46th percentile) with an excellent contact rate. He can’t run (third percentile!) but stole 30 bases in 32 attempts, including 19-for-19 after joining the Mariners. He doesn’t look like he’d be quick in the field, but his Statcast defensive metrics have been above average in each of the past four seasons.
He’s not a star — 3.1 WAR in 2025 was a career high — but he’s a safe, predictable player to bank on for the next few years. This deal runs through his age-33 season, so maybe there’s some risk at the end of the contract, but for a team with World Series aspirations in 2026, the Mariners needed to bring Naylor back. The front office will be happy with this signing and so will Mariners fans. — David Schoenfield
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