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As we approach the one-month mark of the 2025 college football season, the state of quarterback play among the contenders (and pretenders) across the country is becoming clearer.

LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, Penn State’s Drew Allar and Texas’ Arch Manning — all for different reasons — have followed hefty preseason hype with relatively slow starts this fall. Elsewhere, Josh Hoover (TCU), Haynes King (Georgia Tech) and Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt) are looking very much as expected, and some of the nation’s biggest offseason question marks, including Oregon’s Dante Moore and Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed, have emerged as surprise stars.

Week 4 was a big one for transfer passers as Joey Aguilar (Tennessee), Carson Beck (Miami), John Mateer (Oklahoma), Fernando Mendoza (Indiana) and Beau Pribula (Missouri) all built on impressive starts with their new programs. Meanwhile, fellow portal quarterbacks Jackson Arnold (Auburn), Devon Dampier (Utah) and Jake Retzlaff (Tulane) experienced their first stumbles in their new uniforms Saturday.

With four full weeks of college football in the books, here’s our take on the Top 25 and how early-season quarterback situations are developing across the country. — Eli Lederman

Previous ranking: 1

Freshman Julian Sayin is off to a terrific start through three games, having replaced national championship-winning quarterback Will Howard. Sayin ranks 29th nationally in QBR (77.2) and is completing almost 79% of his throws. Sayin didn’t put up big numbers in Ohio State’s season-opening 14-7 victory over then-top-ranked Texas. But he was accurate and avoided any big mistakes (sacks or turnovers), which allowed the Ohio State defense to salt away the win. In Week 2’s 70-0 victory, Sayin set a school record with 16 straight completions to begin the game. Then, in Week 3, he passed for 347 yards as the offense got rolling against Ohio in the second half after a slow start. Some big tests loom ahead, most notably on Nov. 1 against Penn State and in the regular-season finale at Michigan. But Sayin has impressed so far with his poise and precision. — Jake Trotter


Previous ranking: 3

Carson Beck has helped lead the Hurricanes to a 4-0 start following a 26-7 win over Florida on Saturday. Though his performance against the Gators was not up to his standard — Beck went 17-of-30 for 160 yards with one interception — he is still completing 73% of his passes on the season and has helped position Miami in the top five as a CFP contender. Beck has shown an ability to make big plays in the passing game with his receivers, who are skilled at going up and making acrobatic catches or coming down with jump balls. Following an open date, Miami plays Florida State in Tallahassee, and Beck said he is looking forward to playing in Doak Campbell Stadium for the first time. — Andrea Adelson


Previous ranking: 2

The Ducks continue to boast one of the most balanced offenses in the country as they totaled 305 passing yards and 280 rushing yards in their 41-7 win over rivals Oregon State Saturday. One slight difference about this week’s performance, however, was that they let quarterback Dante Moore loosen his arm a bit more. Whether it was by design or not, it worked; Moore threw 31 passes for 305 yards and four touchdowns, all season highs. It was another reminder that no matter how good the Ducks have been this season, Moore still has more in the tank. Even if he doesn’t have the kind of off-the-charts pop that others at his position might boast, the sophomore has proved he can be efficient, explosive when needed and, most importantly, capable of managing Oregon’s offense to perfection so far. — Paolo Uggetti


Previous ranking: 4

After a slow start to the season due to a torso injury, Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier again looked like one of the best passers in the FBS on Saturday, albeit against FCS program Southeastern Louisiana. And with a trip to Ole Miss coming up next, it couldn’t have come at a better time for LSU. Nussmeier completed 25 of 31 passes for 273 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions in 2½ quarters of action against the Lions. It was the first game in which he threw for more than 250 yards this season. “This week was big about trying to find our rhythm and getting in stride heading into SEC play,” Nussmeier said. LSU coach Brian Kelly thought Nussmeier did a better job seeing the field and throwing in rhythm. — Mark Schlabach


Previous ranking: 7

Veteran Drew Allar is off to a bit of a slow start statistically. He ranks 111th in QBR (38.4) and has thrown just four touchdowns over three games. But the Nittany Lions have yet to be pressed, as they coasted past Nevada (46-11), Florida International (34-0) and Villanova (52-6). The spotlight, however, will be on Allar and Penn State next weekend when Oregon visits for a prime-time, “White Out” showdown. Allar admitted over the summer that the time has come for the Nittany Lions “to get over that hump” against big-time opponents. Under coach James Franklin, Penn State is 4-20 against teams ranked in the AP top 10 — and Allar has only one career top-10 win (Boise State last year) as Penn State’s starting quarterback. Beating the Ducks this time around would be a huge statement for Allar and the Nittany Lions. — Trotter


Previous ranking: 5

Any lingering quarterback concerns that Georgia fans had about Gunner Stockton were probably put to rest after his performance in a 44-41 overtime victory at Tennessee on Sept. 13. The sophomore completed 23 of 31 passes for 304 yards with two touchdowns and ran 13 times for 38 yards with another score. It was a much better performance for Stockton, who struggled to get the ball down the field in a 28-6 victory against Austin Peay the week before. He led the Bulldogs on four touchdown drives of 72 yards or longer, including one near the end of regulation that resulted in his 28-yard scoring pass to London Humphreys on fourth down. Georgia’s offensive line needs to get better, and Stockton needs to improve at keeping his eyes down the field while scrambling. — Schlabach


Previous ranking: 8

So far, things could not have gone better for the Seminoles with transfer quarterback Tommy Castellanos, who has been a perfect fit for the offense and the team in general. Castellanos has thrown for 594 yards and three touchdowns this season, completing 71% of his passes, while adding 139 yards rushing and three scores. Florida State has not had to rely on the passing game just yet, as the Seminoles have steamrolled their opponents on the ground. Castellanos did have a bit of a scare in a 66-10 win over Kent State when his leg got rolled up on, but he said afterward he was “all good.” — Adelson


Previous ranking: 9

Washington State transfer John Mateer has delivered on the hype that followed his offseason arrival in Norman. Through four games, he has already taken care of his principal objective: stabilizing a Sooners offense that finished 113th in total offense a year ago. But Mateer has also brought with him a brand of playmaking ability Oklahoma hasn’t had at the quarterback position since Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts rolled through the program in the late 2010s. Following Saturday’s 24-17 win over then-No. 22 Auburn, Mateer ranks sixth nationally in passing yards (1,215) and tied for second among Power 4 quarterbacks in rushing scores (five). He was far from perfect facing an SEC defense for the first time, and Mateer’s turnover tally (four) and propensity for working himself into trouble are worth keeping an eye on as Oklahoma stares down ranked matchups in six of its final eight games of the season. But there’s no doubt that Mateer has significantly raised the floor for the Sooners’ offense. The question now is just how high the ceiling can be this fall. — Lederman


Previous ranking: 6

The Aggies had a bye week, a fortuitous break after an emotional trip to Notre Dame where they won on a fourth-down touchdown with 13 seconds left. It was A&M’s first road nonconference win against a ranked team since 1979 and first road win against any ranked team at all since 2014. Marcel Reed was just 17-of-37 in that game but threw for 360 yards, and KC Concepcion and Mario Craver have provided the 3-0 Aggies with the big-play threats they lacked last season. Last year, A&M got off to a hot start, beginning 7-1, including a win over No. 8 LSU. Then, a slide started, beginning with a road loss to South Carolina followed by a 43-41 triple-overtime loss to Auburn. The Aggies get the Tigers at home next week, who are coming off a road loss to Oklahoma, to try to keep this year’s momentum rolling. — Dave Wilson


Previous ranking: 20

Although Indiana retained many of its top players from its 2024 CFP team, it needed to replace standout quarterback Kurtis Rourke. The team plucked one of the top available transfers in Cal‘s Fernando Mendoza, who joined his younger brother and fellow quarterback Alberto Mendoza at IU. How would Mendoza adjust? The answer came Saturday with a near-flawless performance, as Mendoza had three more touchdown passes (five) than incompletions (two), finishing with 267 passing yards and finding four different teammates for scores. He became the second FBS player with five passing touchdowns and 90% completions against an AP ranked opponent in the past 30 years, joining Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud in 2021 against Michigan State. Mendoza could end up being an upgrade from Rourke. — Adam Rittenberg


Previous ranking: 12

After four games, Rebels coach Lane Kiffin has a good problem on his hands. Ole Miss has two quarterbacks who are more than capable of running the offense. Starter Austin Simmons won the job in camp and has thrown for 580 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions. Simmons injured his ankle in the fourth quarter of a 30-23 win at Kentucky on Sept. 6, and backup Trinidad Chambliss has played even better in his absence. In Saturday’s 45-10 rout of Tulane, Chambliss passed for 307 yards with two touchdowns and ran for 112 yards on 14 attempts. In the past two wins over Arkansas and Tulane, Chambliss threw for 660 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions, while running for 174 with two scores. With LSU going to Oxford, Mississippi, next week, Kiffin faces a difficult decision. “I’m not saying he’s Russell Wilson, don’t get me wrong, but there’s some similarities in that kind of in the ‘it factor’ and how he moves and holds himself, you know, that I’ve kind of said that since he’s gotten here,” Kiffin said of Chambliss, who won two Division II national championships at Ferris State in Big Rapids, Michigan. — Schlabach


Previous ranking: 17

Behren Morton took some rough hits on Saturday, including a hit to the head that knocked him out of the Red Raiders’ road test at Utah. But Texas Tech did not miss a beat when backup Will Hammond stepped in to replace him. The redshirt freshman threw for 169 yards, rushed for 61 yards and led a 21-0 scoring run in the fourth quarter for a massive 34-10 victory against then No. 16 Utah. Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire said Morton will be fine, and a bye week is arriving at a good time for this team. But Hammond, who put up the second-best QBR (96.3) in FBS during Week 4, has done more than enough to prove he’s ready to help this team win if called upon. — Max Olson


Previous ranking: 10

A tuneup against 0-4 Sam Houston might have been what the doctor ordered for several scuffling Longhorns who had yet to find their stride this season. Arch Manning accounted for five touchdowns — three passing and two rushing — and completed 14 passes in a row a week after the Longhorns’ offense got booed after 10 straight incompletions against UTEP. Saturday, Manning finished 18-of-21 for 309 yards, including two touchdown passes of 53 and 13 yards to Ryan Wingo, who had just nine catches and one touchdown in the first three games, and edge rushing star Colin Simmons recorded his first solo sack of the year. The Longhorns head to Florida on Saturday hoping to keep building momentum in their SEC opener against the 1-3 Gators before facing Oklahoma, which beat Auburn to move to 4-0, in Dallas the following week. — Wilson


Previous ranking: 16

Joey Aguilar and Tennessee faced a unique test this week, needing to get back on track after a devastating loss to Georgia last week. Safe to say, they passed it. Aguilar threw for 218 yards and three touchdowns and needed to play only one drive in the second half as the Vols broke out to a 42-7 halftime lead and cruised 56-24 over UAB. The Vols are averaging 53.5 points per game through four games, and Aguilar has 1,124 passing yards and 12 touchdowns. They have an explosiveness that they lacked with Nico Iamaleava at quarterback last season, and the defense has been fine against teams not named Georgia. Starting next week at Mississippi State, however, the Vols embark on a run of three road trips in four games. We’ll see if Aguilar’s solid early form travels. — Bill Connelly


Previous ranking: 13

The Cyclones were idle this week ahead of next week’s home game against surging Arizona. At 4-0, Iowa State is off to a promising start, but it has to turn in a comprehensive win against an FBS opponent as all three such wins have come by one score. Quarterback Rocco Becht is finding a way to help pull these games out, but Iowa State needs more explosive plays from its offense if it expects to seriously compete for the Big 12 title. — Kyle Bonagura


Previous ranking: 15

Ty Simpson had to wait years to win Alabama’s starting job, and his tenure began as inauspiciously as possible with a dire loss at Florida State. Simpson has been almost perfect since, however, completing 41 of 46 passes for 608 yards and seven TDs against UL Monroe and Wisconsin. The Tide rolled in both games, setting the table nicely for an enormous and potentially season-defining trip to Georgia next Saturday. If Simpson looks good in a Tide win, he enters the Heisman discussion and Alabama’s CFP bona fides get a nice boost. If he struggles and Bama loses, the CFP starts to seem like a pipe dream. — Connelly


Previous ranking: 19

Beau Pribula has had it pretty easy early in his tenure as Mizzou’s starting quarterback. He has completed 72% of his passes with an 8-to-2 INT-to-TD ratio, he has been a solid scrambling weapon at times, and he has been able to turn around and hand the ball off to Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts. They’ve taken it from there. The running back duo rushed 35 times for 214 yards and two touchdowns in Mizzou’s 29-20 win over South Carolina on Saturday night. Despite missing left tackle Cayden Green, Mizzou had 285 yards rushing, Pribula took only one sack and Mizzou went 7-for-13 on third downs. Only some third-down brilliance from the Gamecocks’ LaNorris Sellers kept this one competitive, but the Tigers moved to 4-0 by finishing the game on an 11-0 run. With a buy game against UMass and a bye week coming up, it looks like Pribula will lead an unbeaten team against Alabama in Columbia in a couple of weeks. — Connelly


Previous ranking: 18

Saturday’s win over Temple wasn’t exactly pretty, but then again, things rarely are for the Yellow Jackets. QB Haynes King likes it that way. Few quarterbacks in the country have proved their toughness more than King, who added three touchdowns in Week 4’s 45-24 win over the Owls. King’s ability to make plays with his legs is what sets him apart, but he has also been stellar as a passer — a big question coming off last season’s shoulder injury. Georgia Tech’s next two games are against Wake Forest and Virginia Tech — two of the ACC’s bottom-feeders — meaning he’ll have a shot to pad his stat line even more before a showdown at Duke on Oct. 18. — David Hale


Previous ranking: 21

Freshman phenom Bryce Underwood earned his first Big Ten road victory on Saturday with a 30-27 win at Nebraska. He didn’t put up crazy stats on the day — 105 passing yards, 61 rushing yards, one TD — but didn’t need to while the Wolverines’ run game overwhelmed a top-10 scoring defense with 292 rushing yards on 9.1 yards per carry (excluding sacks). Interim coach Biff Poggi loved the poise Underwood brought to the sideline and huddle that gave his team no doubt it’d win. The young QB’s developmental trajectory through four games remains extremely exciting to watch. — Olson


Previous ranking: 22

Diego Pavia fought for an extra year of eligibility in 2025 and is absolutely making the most of it. The sixth-year senior avenged last year’s upset loss to Georgia State with a 70-21 rout on Saturday night that has Vanderbilt off to a 4-0 start for the first time since 2008. Pavia has dramatically raised his completion percentage from 59.4% last season to an SEC-best 73.9%, ranks among the top 10 in QBR (85.7) and is powering a top-10 scoring offense that’s putting up 47.5 points per game. The Commodores have one more nonconference tuneup against Utah State before an epic October schedule against four of the SEC’s best in Alabama, LSU, Missouri and Texas. — Olson


Previous ranking: 25

The Horned Frogs played a bit sloppy but never panicked against SMU in a 35-24 win, the last iteration of a rivalry that dates back to 2015. Josh Hoover threw for 379 yards and a career-high five touchdowns, and a stacked receiving room saw Eric McAlister become this week’s star, with eight catches for 254 yards (second best in school history) and three touchdowns, narrowly missing two more, one on an interception that was wrestled away from him and another on a possible TD catch that was ruled incomplete and wasn’t reviewed by officials. The defense held SMU to 384 yards, 4-of-13 on third down and the Mustangs’ fewest points all season. The Frogs, who snuck into the AP Top 25 at No. 24 this week, head to Tempe to take on defending Big 12 champs Arizona State on Friday night, a test that could start to reveal if TCU is back on its 2022 trajectory. — Wilson


Previous ranking: NR

If there wasn’t much talk about Jayden Maiava‘s season so far, then let the chatter begin. The Trojans’ quarterback was impressive against Michigan State in a 45-31 win, looking as comfortable as ever in Lincoln Riley’s offense. Maiva completed 20 of 26 passes for 234 yards (and crossed the 1,000-yard mark for the season) while adding three passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns too. It’s not clear yet just how good USC is and can be in the Big Ten and beyond this season, but through four contests, there’s no doubt that the explosive offense the sport has come to expect when Riley has a dynamic quarterback in tow is alive and well with Maiava under center. In fact, after putting up 517 yards of offense against the Spartans, the Trojans’ average yards per game for the year (604 per game, tops in the country) will go down. At the center of it all has been Maiava. — Uggetti


Previous ranking: 24

When the season opened, the biggest question looming over Notre Dame was at quarterback. It took until late in fall camp before CJ Carr won the job, and the Irish — fresh off a trip to the national championship game — might’ve reasonably been concerned about putting their fate in the hands of a QB with no starting experience. Turns out, Carr has been fine — throwing for 223 yards and two touchdowns in a 56-30 win over Purdue on Saturday — and Notre Dame’s Achilles’ heel has been the area the Irish might’ve felt best about: the secondary. Purdue threw for 303 yards and three touchdowns Saturday, and the battered and struggling defensive backs in South Bend showed little ability to adjust. Notre Dame might have its QB1, but the job now is stopping the other team’s quarterback. — Hale


Previous ranking: 11

When the Illini slogged through the first half Sept. 6 against Duke, struggling along the line of scrimmage, quarterback Luke Altmyer kept the team on track, avoiding major mistakes and buying enough time for a second-half surge. But Altmyer had no chance to be a hero at Indiana, which swarmed him all night, recording five sacks in the first half and seven in the game. Other than a 59-yard touchdown pass to Collin Dixon, Altmyer was limited to 87 passing yards on 13 completions and constantly faced pressure. He certainly can play better and will need to beginning this week against USC. But Altmyer was far from Illinois’ biggest problem in the Indiana debacle. He has given the Illini a veteran presence who, when given time, can pick apart defenses. — Rittenberg


Previous ranking: 14

The celebration in Utah about a revived Utes offense was premature, it turns out. Utah and Texas Tech were locked in a defensive tussle for much of Saturday’s 34-10 Texas Tech win before the Red Raiders finished the game with a flurry of touchdowns in the fourth quarter. The Utes struggled in both phases on offense, managing just 101 yards rushing on 31 carries (3.3 yards per carry) and only 162 yards through the air. The ineffectiveness of the offense was compounded by four turnovers that served as an unpleasant reminder of the past two seasons. — Bonagura

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The Polar Bear in Boston? A return to Queens? Potential free agent fits for Pete Alonso

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The Polar Bear in Boston? A return to Queens? Potential free agent fits for Pete Alonso

NEW YORK — A year after discovering teams across Major League Baseball did not deem him worthy of a lengthy contract, Pete Alonso is back on the free agent market searching for long-term love again.

In February, after an extended standoff, Alonso settled for a two-year, $54 million deal to return to the New York Mets with an opt-out after the 2025 season. He was paid $30 million for this year and posted numbers good enough to make opting out the clear choice. And Alonso didn’t waste time, announcing that was his plan minutes after the Mets lost their final regular-season game against the Miami Marlins to fall short of the playoffs.

His chances of finding a long-term partner are higher this time around for a few reasons. The first one is clear: He’s coming off a significantly stronger campaign. Alonso had his worst season in 2024, slashing .240/.329/.459 with 34 home runs. That, in a vacuum, was good production. But it was his fourth straight season with declining numbers — an alarming pattern considering Alonso was about to turn 30 and didn’t add value on defense or the basepaths.

The metrics suggested Alonso was still one of the worst defensive first basemen in baseball in 2025 — his minus-9 defensive runs saved and minus-9 outs above average both ranked 18th out of 18 qualified first basemen — but he rebounded in the batter’s box. With an adjusted swing and approach, Alonso hit the ball harder — his 93.5 mph average exit velocity was a career high — and the production followed.

He slashed .272/.347/.524 with 38 home runs and 126 RBIs mostly hitting behind Juan Soto. His 141 wRC+ was tied for the second-largest output of his career. He set the franchise record for career home runs, further solidifying his place as one of the most beloved Mets in recent history.

Also of note: Alonso played in all 162 games for the second consecutive season and has appeared in 1,008 of the Mets’ 1,032 regular-season games since debuting in 2019. He has started 993 of those games at first base, 60 at DH.

Over that span, his 264 career home runs rank third in baseball behind only Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber, a fellow free agent. Alonso is durable and consistent.

Then there’s the market. Alonso and Schwarber are the two premier power bats available in free agency this offseason. At first base, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s decision to sign a 14-year, $500 million extension with Toronto in April removed Alonso’s stiffest positional competition. Josh Naylor is a tier below — and a different player with less power but better defensively and on the bases — and Seattle wasn’t going to spend the necessary money for Alonso, but the Mariners retaining their first baseman nevertheless removes an option at the position for other clubs.

Add it up and Alonso should find a deal in the range of four to five years. The question is where. Here are a few possible landing spots for the five-time All-Star, starting with his three most aggressive suitors so far, including the only team he has ever known.


Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said last week that he would “love” to bring back Alonso and closer Edwin Diaz, another All-Star free agent. Alonso’s stated willingness to serve as a designated hitter, at least in a part-time capacity, doesn’t hurt as the Mets prioritize improving a defense that regressed in 2025.

“He’s clearly a really good offensive player,” Stearns said at the GM meetings in Las Vegas. “And I think for any team the ability to get his bat in the lineup in multiple ways is helpful. And it’s great to know that Pete is open to stuff like that.”

But the Mets’ top offseason priority is pitching — in the rotation and the bullpen — and they have internal options for first base and DH in the short and long term. Mark Vientos, Brett Baty and Jeff McNeil could play first base. Juan Soto, after a poor defensive year in right field, will eventually see time at DH. Further, Stearns’ unwillingness to give Alonso what he wanted last winter indicates he prefers not to make that level of investment in him.

The Mets haven’t had someone other than Alonso start at first base on Opening Day since Adrián González began a 54-game cameo to conclude his career in 2018. A year later, Alonso debuted and went on to club 54 home runs en route to being named National League Rookie of the Year. He became a fan favorite in Queens over his seven seasons. But he could find himself in another uniform in 2026.


First base production in 2025: .244/.305/.386, 16 HR, 86 wRC+, -0.7 fWAR

Primary first basemen: Abraham Toro (57 starts), Romy Gonzalez (41), Triston Casas (27), Nathaniel Lowe (26)

Designated hitter production in 2025: .272/.361/.465, 26 HR, 125 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR

Primary designated hitters: Rafael Devers (73), Masataka Yoshida (44), Rob Refsnyder (18), Roman Anthony (17)

Most of Boston’s DH production last season came from Devers before he was traded in June. First base was a major problem beginning with Casas’ slow start and exacerbated when he was lost for the season with a knee injury in early May. The logical choice to replace him — Devers — refused the assignment, which led to Boston shipping him to San Francisco.

Toro, Gonzalez and Lowe, who was signed in August, handled the duty for the remainder of the season. Toro was designated for assignment in August. Lowe met the same fate Tuesday.

The Red Sox president of baseball operations, Craig Breslow, has made it clear: He wants to acquire an accomplished middle-of-the-order bat, preferably a right-handed one. Trading Devers, combined with Alex Bregman‘s free agency, has left the Red Sox without much proven slug in their lineup. A reunion with Bregman would check that box. As would signing Alonso, who could split time at first base and DH with Casas if Boston were to keep him.

Do the Red Sox have the appetite for both free agents? Trading Devers moved $29.1 million off the competitive balance tax payroll for each of the next eight years. The Red Sox had approximately $98 million of their relatively modest $201 million CBT payroll come off the books after the season. Their 2026 payroll is projected to include more than $50 million in raises, but Boston is a big-market club with plenty of money to fill its needs.


First base production in 2025: .252/.318/.445, 29 HR, 107 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR

Primary first basemen: Spencer Steer (113 starts), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (25)

Designated hitter production in 2025: .240/.313/.407, 21 HR, 96 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR

Primary designated hitters: Gavin Lux (57 starts), Austin Hays (38), Miguel Andujar (20), Tyler Stephenson (17), Steer (16)

The Reds finished 14th in the majors in runs scored, but their collective 92 wRC+, a metric that adjusts for park factors and league context, ranked 24th. The Reds know there’s room for improvement playing half of their games at Great American Ball Park, a hitter’s haven, so they’re seeking to strengthen their offense.

First base and DH aren’t obvious needs. Spencer Steer clubbed 21 home runs in 146 games. Sal Stewart, who turns 22 next month, will be a bigger part of the calculus after posting a 121 OPS+ in his first 18 career games. But Alonso resides on another level. As does Schwarber, a Cincinnati-area native.

Now, the money part. Signing either slugger would require the largest free agent contract in franchise history; the current high mark is the two four-year, $64 million deals given to Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas in 2020. The Reds are estimated to carry a $120 million CBT payroll for next season after finishing with a $143 million payroll in 2025, their highest since 2021. That projection includes expected raises. If investing in a premier free agent is too rich — or if they all simply decide to play elsewhere — the Reds could land a cheaper alternative in the trade market by dealing from their starting rotation depth.


First base production in 2025: .262/.351/.479, 32 HR, 128 wRC+, 3.9 fWAR

Primary first basemen: Bryce Harper (130 starts)

Designated hitter production in 2025: .238/.362/.566, 57 HR, 152 wRC+, 5.1 fWAR

Primary designated hitters: Kyle Schwarber (154 starts)

With Bryce Harper at first base, Alonso probably would only make sense for the Phillies if they do not re-sign Schwarber — the best designated hitter in the majors this side of Shohei Ohtani. But Phillies owner John Middleton isn’t afraid to spend money, and the team could make both Alonso and Schwarber work by moving Harper back to the outfield. Offensively, Alonso’s right-handed bat makes sense, since the Phillies are expected to move on from Nick Castellanos, catcher J.T. Realmuto is a free agent, and Alec Bohm is a candidate for a trade.


First base production in 2025: .246/.323/.411, 18 HR, 103 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR

Primary first basemen: Spencer Horwitz (93 starts), Enmanuel Valdez (22)

Designated hitter production in 2025: .238/.328/.390, 19 HR, 98 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR

Primary designated hitters: Andrew McCutchen (120 starts), Bryan Reynolds (34)

This is a long shot, but the Pirates want to spend money on upgrading their offense to complement a strong pitching staff headlined by Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes. Like the A’s last winter in their quest to upgrade their starting rotation, that could require overpaying for an impact bat. The price of doing business.


First base production in 2025: .243/.310/.369, 14 HR, 92 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR

Primary first basemen: Coby Mayo (67 starts), Ryan Mountcastle (50), Ryan O’Hearn (39)

Designated hitter production in 2025: .221/.296/.380, 22 HR, 90 wRC+, -0.5 fWAR

Primary designated hitters: Mountcastle (33 starts), O’Hearn (31), Adley Rutschman (18), Jordan Westburg (16), Tyler O’Neill (13)

At the GM meetings, Orioles general manager Mike Elias said he wanted to add a power hitter, preferably an outfielder, this offseason. Acquiring Taylor Ward for right-hander Grayson Rodriguez on Tuesday checked that box. But they could always add more slug and Alonso would give them plenty.


Designated hitter production in 2025: .282/.354/.484, 34 HR, 133 wRC+, 3.6 fWAR

Primary designated hitters: George Springer (80 starts), Anthony Santander (30), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (24)

This fit isn’t clean, but the Blue Jays could lose the right-handed-hitting Bo Bichette in free agency this winter and Alonso could serve as a replacement. The Blue Jays expressed interest in Alonso last winter, but that was when Guerrero’s future was very uncertain. We’re not even going to bother listing first base as a possibility for Alonso in Toronto because that’s Guerrero’s job for a very long time. Springer enjoyed a resurgent season primarily as Toronto’s DH, so he would have to move back to the outfield to make room for Alonso.

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$400 million extension, blockbuster trade or let it ride? MLB insiders break down Tigers’ Tarik Skubal options

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0 million extension, blockbuster trade or let it ride? MLB insiders break down Tigers' Tarik Skubal options

After three seasons with a face-of-the-franchise-type superstar to headline the winter, there is no Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto in the 2025-26 free agent class. But there is still one player whose potential availability could rock the offseason ahead: Tarik Skubal.

Why would the Detroit Tigers possibly move their ace on the heels of his second straight American League Cy Young Award and the team’s second consecutive postseason appearance?

Quite simply, because keeping Skubal in Detroit is going to become very expensive, very soon. The 28-year-old left-hander will enter the final year of his contract in 2026 before he is scheduled to reach free agency after the season. If he does hit the market next winter, Skubal has a chance of surpassing Los Angeles Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s record $325 million contract, and he could even become baseball’s first $400 million pitcher.

With Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris facing a decision that will shape the future of the franchise — and impact all of MLB — we talked with 11 industry insiders about what Detroit should do this offseason, broken into three main options.


1. Trade Skubal this winter

This was the least-popular option among our panel and one rival executive explained why.

“The whole reason you do all this is to start a season with a potential contender that has an ace. You can’t throw that away before the season starts. How long will it take to get here again?”

Some panelists hemmed and hawed about how much a team would have to overpay to get Detroit to consider a trade, believing an offer that included a young starting pitcher with front-line potential would be enough to start internal conversations — but nobody could get themselves logically to advocate for a deal unless something completely illogical was offered. And that type of deal increasingly doesn’t happen in modern baseball.

If the Tigers were to trade Skubal for anything less than a gobsmacking return, it would likely mean their competitive window would be tighter — and it would be hard to call Detroit a contender without Skubal next season. Dealing away a player of his caliber would label the Tigers a small-market team, at least by mindset, and bring into question whether they would find themselves in this situation again as other star players approach free agency. It’s much easier to push some, but not all, of their chips to the middle for the upcoming season and see what they can do with Skubal leading the way. Who knows when the next opportunity will come?

When I asked these sources what the Tigers should do, they seemed unsure about how Detroit was viewing the situation but leaned toward believing the Tigers would keep Skubal going into next season. That said, knowing what the market will bear is what Harris likes to do, so the drumbeat of Skubal being available in the right deal — or at least in the sense that Detroit would listen before hanging up — will likely continue.


2. Keep Skubal, but trade him at the deadline if the season doesn’t go as planned

In the event things go sideways during the first half of the 2026 season, everyone on our panel agreed that this was the right move. Defining what “going sideways” means with the expanded playoffs is hard, but battling for a wild-card spot around the trade deadline was where the gray area began for our panelists.

“You cannot, under any circumstances, hold Skubal through the trade deadline and miss the playoffs. That would be a catastrophe,” said one agent.

The haul would still be formidable for a rental deal — back-of-the-envelope math says two prospects ranking later in the top 100 or one elite young player, roughly speaking — but also because the offers would have to clear the bar of Detroit receiving a compensation pick just after the first round to even be considered, as that’s what the Tigers would get if Skubal walked in free agency (under the current free agency system).

Another rival executive has an informed theory on Harris’ focus: “He has his eyes set on 2027 and 2028 as his prime contending years.” If things go well in 2026, the window would expand to include it as well. Top prospects Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark, the No. 2 and No. 6 prospects in the sport, could be core players as soon as the second half of 2026, so aiming for things to really take off in 2027 is logical.

Opinions vary on whether Skubal would fetch more this winter or at the deadline because it’s hard to project how desperate a contender could hypothetically be at the deadline versus what that team would offer to get an entire season of Skubal plus a first-round pick when he walks. It’s safe to assume the return would likely be a bit less at the deadline.


3. Keep Skubal no matter what, try to extend him and take the draft pick if he ends up leaving

This would be a bold move in the era of the asset value-focused approach that so many teams are taking now. If Skubal were to walk in free agency, the compensation would likely be a draft pick in the 30s the following summer — and that’s it. That type of pick is valued at roughly $8-10 million of surplus value, depending on your source.

There is more value that would come before that for Detroit, but it’s hard to quantify. The Tigers would get another title run with the reigning back-to-back AL Cy Young winner and more time to convince him to stay in Detroit. Maybe that combination could make magic and both sides could land on a deal before he hits free agency. Skubal has said he wants to stay in Detroit, so you can’t rule it out. Another rival executive thinks Harris is focused on how to make this happen. “[Harris] will never believe he can’t sign Skubal.”

That being said, Skubal being represented by Scott Boras makes it unlikely he will sign a deal without at least testing the market, as Boras typically advises clients to hit free agency.

There’s one more variable, though, that is unique to the timing of Skubal’s free agency: the expected labor strife next winter, with the current CBA expiring on Dec. 1, 2026. It’s unlikely Boras wants Skubal to be on the market through a labor stoppage that would leave him potentially signing right before spring training after some teams have spent their available cash and with the economic model of the game potentially changing in a way that hurts Skubal’s market. One source said the CBA complication moves the odds that Skubal signs an extension before free agency from 0% to 10%.

The last time there was a labor stoppage hanging over free agency, we saw a frenzy of late-November deals before the Dec. 1 lockout. A similar quicker free agent process that ends with Skubal signing around Thanksgiving would give Detroit a slight leg up, given the familiarity and exclusive negotiating window before free agency, relative to a protracted, winter-long bidding war.

The contract marks to beat are Yamamoto’s $325 million guarantee that is the most ever for pitchers and Max Fried’s $218 million guarantee that is tops among left-handers all-time. Both of those contracts were landed by agencies other than Boras Corp., and setting precedents is a large part of how top agencies market themselves to potential nine-figure clients.

It’s also worth noting Skubal had Tommy John surgery in college and flexor tendon surgery in 2022, which are factors to consider when projecting a long-term deal in free agency.

Are Harris and the Tigers likely to win a straight bidding war with a precedent-setting guarantee? No, but if they can offer a shorter deal at an AAV record with opt-outs, they would at least have a path, albeit a narrow one, to keeping their ace.

The real issue for Detroit is their payroll. They finished last season with a $155 million competitive balance tax (CBT) payroll figure, over $90 million below the first CBT tax threshold. If Skubal will be getting an AAV in the $30 millions or even the low $40 millions, can the Tigers really justify giving a quarter of their payroll to one player? Would Harris do that, or would signing Skubal be part of a larger move to a payroll number that can justify fitting Skubal in there as the Tigers see their peak competitive window opening? If McGonigle and Clark show up late in 2026 and look like future stars, that won’t bump the payroll, but it could make the Tigers look more competitive going forward and that could help their long-term case to Skubal, as well.

This logic — if things go well in 2026, the Tigers will contend and hold onto Skubal through the season — is also why another executive mused on Detroit’s options if it traded Skubal at the deadline. “You could still trade [Skubal] and then sign him back long-term, but I can’t imagine the series of events where that would actually happen.”

There’s also the reading of the tea leaves for this winter. Some sources mentioned Detroit is targeting pitching depth early in free agency. Is that to backfill for a potential Skubal trade? A deal now or at the deadline? Or just to create depth for a title run like all contending teams need? Or to create leverage/depth so they have maximum optionality for all of 2026? You can see what you want to see when it comes to the Rorschach test that is the team-building conundrum of the winter.

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Records: WMU police called twice to aid Kneeland

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Records: WMU police called twice to aid Kneeland

Western Michigan University police were twice called to perform welfare checks on Marshawn Kneeland while he played for the school, including by coaches who worried about him possessing a gun, according to records obtained by ESPN.

Kneeland, a defensive end for the Dallas Cowboys, died Nov. 6 of an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound in Frisco, Texas. He was 24. The documents obtained by ESPN via an open-records request show that there were concerns about his mental health as early as 2020.

One incident, in June 2023, came 10 months before Dallas picked him in the second round of the NFL draft. Western Michigan coach Lance Taylor and then-defensive coordinator Lou Esposito called police with a “concern that [Kneeland] recently separated from his girlfriend” and that they “wanted to make sure he was mentally fit to possess a firearm,” according to a campus police report.

“After speaking with Kneeland, he voluntarily turned the firearm into WMUPD for safekeeping until cleared by a counselor,” the officer wrote.

Twelve days later, Kneeland retrieved his gun from police after obtaining a letter from a social worker at the Western Michigan Sindecuse Health Center stating that Kneeland was examined and determined not to be a threat to himself or others, according to the report.

Taylor and Esposito did not immediately respond to messages seeking comment Friday. “WMU’s football program and our greater community are heartbroken by the loss of Marshawn,” according to a statement from the Western Michigan athletic department provided to ESPN. “He was deeply loved and cared for here. Bronco Athletics provides holistic support for all our student-athletes including mental health services with professional counselors. Marshawn made use of those mental health resources during his time at WMU. The entire football staff was proud of Marshawn, who grew to become a captain and a leader in the program, and ultimately a graduate of Western Michigan University.” The counselor named in the report did not respond to messages from ESPN.

In another incident in September 2020, an unnamed friend of Kneeland’s called 911 to express concern for his well-being, and police found Kneeland near train tracks in Kalamazoo.

“Kneeland told me he was sitting across the tracks in hopes a train would run him over to end his life,” the responding officer wrote in a report. “Kneeland told me life overall and the lack of playing football at WMU had him feeling down. He told me he had been feeling like this for a while. When asked to clarify how long he felt that way, he did not answer. Kneeland said he does not see a therapist or take any medication for his mental health crisis.”

The report states that Kneeland did not want to seek medical help but that Kent County sheriff’s deputies who responded to the scene sent Kneeland to Borgess Hospital (now Beacon Kalamazoo). The report does not state when or why Kneeland was released from the hospital.

A Cowboys spokesperson declined to answer questions Friday about whether the team had been aware of Kneeland’s previous incidents.

Kneeland’s cousin Nicole Kneeland-Woods, a family spokesperson, told ESPN that she had no knowledge of those incidents. “None at all,” she said.

On Thursday, Kneeland’s family held a private memorial service in Wyoming, Michigan. Kneeland-Woods said it was invitation-only, with family, close friends and some of his coaches.

“Right now for us, it’s just trying to move forward,” she said. “Now we can really start the healing process.”

Texas police found Kneeland’s body in the early morning of Nov. 6 after he had evaded officers during a traffic pursuit, crashed his car and fled on foot. According to a report released Friday by the Texas Department of Public Safety, a trooper saw Kneeland’s car speeding down the highway, sometimes traveling more than 145 miles per hour and making “several unsafe lane changes.” The trooper ultimately lost sight of Kneeland’s car. While officers searched for Kneeland, they said they received information that he had expressed “suicidal ideations.”

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