Mathematical probability, in a perfectly equitable distribution of championships, means each MLB team would win a World Series once every 30 years. That is not the world we live in, of course, so many franchises have experienced long title droughts that have stretched into multiple decades. There is even one that has never appeared in the Fall Classic.

That establishes a super fun element to this year’s postseason. We have seven playoff teams who have gone longer than 30 years since their last World Series championship — including the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres, who have never won, and the Seattle Mariners, who have still never reached the World Series 48 years into their franchise history.

Maybe, just maybe, some team’s long-suffering fans will experience that euphoria of winning the final game of the season.

Yes, it’s the year of the World Series Drought-Buster Watch. Let’s look at those seven franchises, what went wrong through the years, and why this may finally be The Year.

Last World Series title: 1948

Last World Series appearance: 2016 (lost to the Cubs in seven games).

Closest call since then: Lost the 2024 ALCS to the Yankees in five games.

Three painful postseason moments:

• Led Game 7 of the 1997 World Series against the Marlins 2-1 in the ninth inning, but the Marlins tied the score off closer Jose Mesa. In the bottom of the 11th, second baseman Tony Fernandez let a slow grounder hit by Florida’s Craig Counsell go under his glove for an error, setting up Edgar Renteria’s walk-off hit.

• In Game 7 of the 2016 World Series against the Cubs, Rajai Davis’ three-run homer in the eighth miraculously tied the score, but the Cubs scored twice in the top of the 10th. Davis’ two-out single in the bottom of the inning made it 8-7, but Cleveland was left with light-hitting Michael Martinez at the plate with two outs and the World Series on the line. Terry Francona had inserted Martinez in the ninth inning to get a better outfield arm in the game when the Cubs got a runner to third base. Martinez hit a slow bouncer to third base to end the game.

• The best Cleveland team ever, the 1995 squad with one of the greatest lineups of all time, loses the clinching Game 6 of the World Series 1-0 to Atlanta while registering just one hit with the only run of the game coming on a David Justice home run off reliever Jim Poole.

Why they haven’t won: Can’t win the big game.

No franchise has suffered more postseason agony, at least since the Red Sox broke through in 2004.Though the Cleveland franchise was certainly dreadful for most of the 1960s, ’70s and ’80s, it has been consistently competitive since 1995, making the postseason 15 times and ranking sixth in overall wins during that span.

But the Guardians are 2-8 in winner-take-all games, winning the first of those in the 1997 ALDS and beating the Tigers in Game 5 of last year’s ALDS, but losing eight in a row in between. Along the way, they blew:

• A 2-0 lead in the 1999 ALDS, losing the final two games to Boston by scores of 23-7 and 12-8.

• A 2-1 lead to Seattle in the 2001 ALDS.

• A 3-1 lead to Boston in the 2007 ALCS, losing the final three games 7-1, 12-2 and 11-2.

• A 3-1 lead in the 2016 World Series, losing the final two games at home.

• A 2-0 lead to the Yankees in the 2017 ALDS.

• A 2-1 lead to the Yankees in the 2022 ALDS.

In those six series, they had 16 chances to close out a series and went 0-16.

Why this could be the year: Cleveland has certainly had better and more glamorous teams than this one. Indeed, with a negative run differential on the season, this is one of the weakest teams ever to make the postseason. The Guardians struggle to score runs. But they can pitch — and the pitching is peaking at the right time. In going 18-4 to close out the regular season, they allowed just 45 runs in 22 games, allowing two or fewer runs in 17 of those.

This team also doesn’t have the burden of expectations like those superstar-laden squads of the late ’90s, or even the 2016 and 2017 squads, which won 94 and 102 games, respectively. On the other hand, if we look at the teams who broke long World Series droughts in the past 20 years, they were all powerhouse clubs: the 2004 Red Sox (98 wins), the 2005 White Sox (99 wins), the 2016 Cubs (103 wins), the 2017 Astros (101 wins). Even the 2023 Rangers, while essentially a one-year fluke and winners of just 90 games, still posted a run differential of plus-165.

But in this year of unpredictability, maybe it’s simply Cleveland’s year.

Milwaukee Brewers

Last World Series title: None (franchise debuted in 1969, moved to Milwaukee in 1970).

Last World Series appearance: 1982 (lost to the Cardinals in seven games).

Closest call since then: Lost the 2018 NLCS to the Dodgers in seven games.

Three painful postseason moments:

• Leading 3-1 in the bottom of the sixth inning in Game 7 of the 1982 World Series, the Cardinals load the bases with one out. Keith Hernandez hits a two-run single off Bob McClure and George Hendrick follows with a go-ahead single as the Cardinals go on to a 6-3 win. Brewers fans will always wonder what the outcome might have been if Hall of Fame reliever Rollie Fingers, who got injured in September, had not missed the World Series.

• Pete Alonso‘s three-run, go-ahead home run in the ninth inning off Devin Williams in last year’s Game 3 of the wild-card series.

• Leading the Nationals 3-1 in the bottom of the eighth of the 2019 wild-card game, Josh Hader loads the bases with a hit batter, single and walk. With two outs, Juan Soto singles to right field and rookie Trent Grisham overruns the ball, allowing all three runners to score.

Why they haven’t won: Lack of offense has led to early playoff exits.

For a long time, the Brewers were just bad. They didn’t have a winning season from 1993 to 2006. Current owner Mark Attanasio bought the team from the Selig family in 2005, however, and after a breakthrough season in 2008, the Brewers have mostly been competitive since, despite the challenges of playing in MLB’s smallest market. The Prince Fielder-Ryan Braun teams were built around offense, but the teams under managers Craig Counsell and now Pat Murphy have centered more on pitching, defense, speed and doing the little things well.

While Christian Yelich was an MVP in 2018 and runner-up in 2019, the recent teams have often lacked one true offensive star to anchor the lineup. That’s one reason the Brewers have had trouble scoring enough runs in the postseason, and that has led to losses in that 2019 wild-card game and wild-card series in 2020, 2023 and 2024. They were in the NLDS in 2021, but scored just six runs in four games, including two shutouts. Overall, the Brewers have gone 2-10 in the playoffs since 2019 entering this year and have hit just .229/.290/.351.

Why this could be the year: Even though the Brewers still don’t have that superstar hitter and rank below average in home runs, this is a deep, good offensive team. Only the Yankees and Dodgers scored more runs during the regular season. Only the Blue Jays struck out less among the playoff teams. And the Brewers do have guys who can hit home runs: Yelich has had his best power season since 2019; Brice Turang has slugged over .500 in the second half; Jackson Chourio can hit it out; and William Contreras hit nine home runs in August, so if he gets hot at the right time, he can help carry a lineup.

The Brewers also earned the No. 1 overall seed and have played well at home, with a 51-29 record. That could be a nice advantage. And even without the injured Trevor Megill, this is a strong bullpen with hard-throwing Abner Uribe capable of closing down leads. The Brewers had the best record for a reason: They’ve quieted skeptics and have remained the most consistent team all season long.

San Diego Padres

Last World Series title: None (franchise debuted in 1969).

Last World Series appearance: 1998 (lost to the Yankees in four games).

Closest call since then: Lost the 2022 NLCS to the Phillies in five games.

Three painful postseason moments:

• Game 1 of the 1998 World Series is tied 5-5 with two outs and the bases loaded in the bottom of the seventh. Mark Langston appears to strike out Tino Martinez on a 2-2 fastball right at the knees, but umpire Rich Garcia calls it a ball. Martinez belts the next pitch for a grand slam.

• Trying to stay alive in the 2022 NLCS and send the series back to San Diego, the Padres lead the Phillies 3-2 in the bottom of the eighth. With a runner on first, Bryce Harper fouls off three fastballs from Robert Suarez, spits on a changeup, then belts a 99 mph heater over the fence in left field for the series-winning home run.

• Up two games to one in last year’s NLDS against the hated Dodgers, the Padres are shut out in the final two games. The final 19 batters in Game 5 are retired in order as the Dodgers win the series clincher 2-0.

Why they haven’t won: Until the late Peter Seidler became chairman, the Padres never had owners completely invested in winning. Since 2020 they’ve tried hard to get over the hump — but haven’t.

The Padres’ tormented history has featured periodic bouts of success — a surprise World Series team in 1984 and another in 1998 — but mostly a lot of losing. Under Tom Werner, there was the infamous teardown in 1993 when an order to reduce payroll resulted in the trades of Fred McGriff and Gary Sheffield. From 2007 through 2019, they made the playoffs, finishing over .500 just two of those years. But a rebuild in the late 2010s combined with an infusion of cash under Seidler has led to fun and competitive teams since 2020, with big crowds and now four playoff appearances in six years.

In two of those three years, they’ve met their archrival Dodgers, beating them in the 2022 NLDS, but losing in 2020 and then last year’s frustrating NLDS. The Padres’ offense seems to go cold at the wrong time — Manny Machado has not been a great postseason hitter for them and Juan Soto didn’t have a good one in his one postseason with the Padres in 2022 (and Fernando Tatis Jr. was out that season).

Why this could be the year: Bullpen, bullpen, bullpen. The Padres have perhaps the best one in the majors, even without injured All-Star Jason Adam. Suarez and Mason Miller provide a late-game pair of flamethrowers, Adrian Morejon is one of the best lefty relievers in the game, Jeremiah Estrada is a strikeout machine. and there is more depth beyond those four. Nick Pivetta had a terrific year to lead the rotation, and Dylan Cease, despite a down year, has the strikeout stuff that could play well in October.

The question: Can they hit enough home runs to score enough runs? A.J. Preller did improve the offense with the trade deadline acquisitions of Ramon Laureano (who is out with a fractured finger), Ryan O’Hearn and Freddy Fermin, but the Padres are still just 12th in OPS and 18th in home runs since then. We have to factor Petco Park into those numbers a bit, but the Padres will need their stars — Machado and Tatis — to step up. If they do, the bullpen can do the rest.

Seattle Mariners

Last World Series title: None (franchise debuted in 1977).

Last World Series appearance: None.

Closest call: Lost the 1995 ALCS to Cleveland and the 2000 ALCS to the Yankees, both in six games. Also lost the 2001 ALCS in five games. Were up 2-1 in the 1995 ALCS against Cleveland, but a powerful Mariners lineup got shut out twice in the final three games.

Three painful postseason moments:

• Leading 1-0 and looking to tie the 2001 ALCS against the Yankees at two games apiece, New York’s Bernie Williams ties the game with an eighth-inning home run off Arthur Rhodes, and Alfonso Soriano hits a walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth off Kazuhiro Sasaki.

• Rhodes again. In Game 6 of the 2000 ALCS, the Mariners are leading the Yankees 4-3 in the seventh when David Justice blasts a three-run homer off Rhodes and sends Yankee Stadium into a deafening roar.

• Back in the playoffs in 2022 for the first time since 2001, the Mariners lead the Astros 7-3 in the eighth inning in the division series. Alex Bregman hits a two-run homer in the eighth. With two on and two outs in the bottom of the ninth, manager Scott Servais summons starter Robbie Ray out of the bullpen to face Yordan Alvarez. Wrong decision. Alvarez blasts a game-winning three-run homer.

Why they haven’t won: Bad offenses and, for the longest time, bad drafting. And just missing the playoffs.

The Mariners couldn’t win in the mid-to-late ’90s despite a roster that featured Ken Griffey Jr., Randy Johnson, Alex Rodriguez and Edgar Martinez. Then came the miracle season of 2001, when they won a record 116 games with only Martinez still on the roster. Then came the long playoff drought, from 2002 to 2021. Those teams were marked mostly by inept offense: They once finished last in the AL in runs four straight seasons. In 2010, they traded for Cliff Lee and went all-in on pitching and defense. ESPN The Magazine put them on its cover. They lost 101 games.

Jerry Dipoto was hired as GM after the 2015 season and began turning things around. He drafted Logan Gilbert and George Kirby in the first round in 2018 and 2019, Cal Raleigh was a third-round pick in 2018, Bryan Woo was a sixth-round pick in 2021. The organization signed Julio Rodriguez in 2017. Since 2021, the Mariners have had five straight winning seasons and are seventh in the majors in wins — but this is only their second playoff appearance, having just missed in 2021, 2023 and 2024.

Why this could be the year: With Raleigh’s historic campaign leading the way, this is the best offense the Mariners have had in 25 years, with their highest wRC+ since 2001. Dipoto’s deadline trades for Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez created one of the best one-through-nine groups in the majors. They ranked third in the majors in home runs, and Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena and Naylor (!) each stole 30 bases. The Mariners’ bullpen isn’t super deep but the late-game foursome of Andres Munoz, Matt Brash, Eduard Bazardo and Gabe Speier has been reliable.

As that stretch of 17 wins in 18 games in September showed, the starting pitching might finally be living up to the preseason expectations following a stellar 2024 season. The concern is Woo’s health. Seattle’s best starter all season with 15 wins and a 2.97 ERA, Woo left his final start with inflammation in his pectoral muscle. The Mariners still have Gilbert, Kirby and Luis Castillo, but if the only franchise never to reach a World Series is to get there, a healthy Woo feels necessary.

Last World Series title: 1984

Last World Series appearance: 2012 (lost to the Giants in four games).

Closest call since then: Lost the 2013 ALCS to the Red Sox in six games.

Three painful postseason moments:

• Leading 5-1 against the Red Sox in Game 2 of the 2013 ALCS and looking to go up two games to none in the series, David Ortiz ties the game in the eighth inning with a two-out, first-pitch grand slam off Joaquin Benoit, a play that sees Tigers right fielder Torii Hunter take a tumble over the wall and into the bullpen area at Fenway Park. The Red Sox walk it off the next inning with the help of an error and wild pitch.

• Game 6 of the same series, the Tigers are leading 2-1 in the seventh inning of Game 6 when Jose Iglesias makes another critical error. Jose Veras enters to face Shane Victorino, who belts a grand slam.

• Game 5 of last year’s ALDS against Cleveland, score tied 1-1 in the fifth, Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal serves up, yes, a grand slam to Lane Thomas.

Why they haven’t won: Couldn’t get it done with the Justin Verlander/Miguel Cabrera/Max Scherzer teams.

The Tigers had two long dry spells of ineptitude since that last championship in 1984. From 1994 to 2005, they suffered 12 consecutive losing seasons, including years with 106, 109 and 119 losses. From 2017 to 2023, it was seven straight losing seasons, including a 114-loss year in 2019.

Between those bad spells, however, were teams featuring the three future Hall of Famers. The Tigers made four straight postseasons from 2011 to 2014 but couldn’t get over the top. Dave Dombrowski’s teams were always top-heavy in stars but lacking in depth — and, usually, it was the bullpen that would bite the Tigers in the playoffs. Then Scherzer left as a free agent, Cabrera battled injuries and stopped hitting and Verlander was prematurely traded in 2017 with minimal return. The Tigers entered a rebuilding period that finally resulted in the franchise’s first playoff appearance in a decade in 2024.

Why this could be the year: The end of the regular season certainly doesn’t inspire much confidence after the Tigers went 7-17 in September and blew a 10-game lead to lose the division title. They just need to find their first-half mojo when they had the best record in the majors on July 6. It helps to have an ace like Skubal who can carry the rotation, and A.J. Hinch still has the same versatile roster he deployed so successfully for most of the season. Many believe Hinch is the best in-game manager in the business, and maybe that will be the difference-maker in a wide-open postseason.

Last World Series title: 1990

Last World Series appearance: 1990 (beat the A’s in four games).

Closest call since then: Lost the 1995 NLCS to the Braves in four games.

Three painful postseason moments:

• In Game 1 of the 2012 NLDS against the Giants, Reds ace Johnny Cueto leaves his start after eight pitches with a back injury. The Reds lose the game and, minus Cueto the rest of the series, lose in five games.

• In Game 5 of that series, the Reds are trailing 6-3 but rallying with two on and nobody out in the bottom of the sixth. But Ryan Hanigan strikes out looking on a 3-2 pitch and, with the runners moving, Jay Bruce is thrown out trying to steal third. Rally over. The Reds lose 6-4.

• In Game 1 of the 1995 NLCS, Pete Schourek is trying to finish off a shutout, leading 1-0 heading into the top of the ninth against Atlanta. The Braves tie it up, however, and win in 11 innings. The Braves win Game 2 in extra innings as well and go on to a four-game sweep.

Why they haven’t won: Bad owners … and one very bad trade.

The Reds were competitive throughout the 1990s and won 96 games in 1999, the year Carl Lindner bought the team from Marge Schott, although they lost a tiebreaker game to the Mets and missed the playoffs. That offseason, GM Jim Bowden pulled off one of the biggest blockbusters in MLB history, acquiring Ken Griffey Jr. from the Mariners.

The trade turned out to be a disaster. Griffey had trouble staying healthy and wasn’t very productive while chewing up a large chunk of the payroll. The Reds had a losing season every year from 2001 to 2009. Bob Castellini purchased the team in 2005, and a new wave of young players led by Joey Votto, and with manager Dusty Baker at the helm, made the playoffs three times in four seasons, including two National League Central titles. The Reds’ payroll climbed as high as 11th in the majors in 2014 but that didn’t last long. By 2016, the Reds were back to 28th in payroll and losing 94 games.

The Reds rarely spend money in free agency. When they signed Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos for $64 million each in 2020, it was the first time they had ever signed a free agent for more than $50 million. By 2022, they were back to cutting payroll. Without an owner willing to go the extra mile, the Reds have found it difficult to make the playoffs — let alone win it all.

Why this could be the year: Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott. The Reds don’t score a lot of runs but they have a chance to prevent them. That young rotation trio is reminiscent of the 2003 Florida Marlins, a wild-card team that rode a young rotation to a World Series title, with Greene taking on the role of Josh Beckett, as the hard-throwing ace of the staff and ability to blow away an opponent in any given game. The Marlins also had a 20-year-old rookie named Miguel Cabrera who was batting cleanup by the World Series. The Reds have 21-year-old rookie in Sal Stewart, who has played just 18 games but has already spent some time batting cleanup.

And don’t overlook Terry Francona. He has been here before. He knows how to manage in the postseason, with the necessary urgency and the ability to get players to believe in themselves. He won’t be afraid, for example, to use rookie righty Chase Burns as a high-leverage option out of the bullpen, even though Burns has just 43 innings in the majors and even spent most of short time in the majors as a starter.

Last World Series title: 1993

Last World Series appearance: 1993 (beat the Phillies in six games).

Closest call since then: Lost the 2015 ALCS in six games to Kansas City. Also lost the 2016 ALCS, in five games, to Cleveland.

Three painful postseason moments:

• Game 6 of the 2015 ALCS is tied in the eighth when Kansas City’s Lorenzo Cain draws a leadoff walk. Eric Hosmer then singles to right field with Cain heading to third, and when Jose Bautista throws the ball into second base, Cain keeps on sprinting home for the winning run in a 4-3 victory.

• In Game 2 of that series, the Blue Jays lead 3-0 in the seventh but manager John Gibbons leaves in a tiring David Price to give up five hits and five runs.

• The Blue Jays blow an 8-2 lead at home in Game 2 of the 2022 wild-card series against Seattle. The winning runs come up when J.P. Crawford clears the bases with a bloop double to center field as a diving George Springer collides with Bo Bichette.

Why they haven’t won: A tough division and the bats going dry in October.

After back-to-back World Series titles in ’92 and ’93, the Blue Jays went 20 years without a playoff appearance even though they were rarely bad in that period. They just couldn’t beat the Yankees and Red Sox or, later, the Rays and Orioles. They finally broke through and won the American League East in 2015 with the Josh Donaldson/Jose Bautista team that scored 127 more runs than any other AL team. They lost to the Royals in the ALCS that year and to Cleveland in 2016 — when the Jays scored just eight runs in five games. Remember when Cleveland had to start an obscure minor leaguer named Ryan Merritt, who had started one game in the majors, in Game 5 because they had no other starters? He tossed 4⅔ shutout innings.

In recent years, the Blue Jays went 0-6 in wild-card series in 2020, 2022 and 2023, scoring three runs in 2020, getting shut out once in 2022, and scoring one run in two games against the Twins in 2023. Entering 2025, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit .136 in six playoff games (no home runs, one RBI) and Bichette .273 with the same no home runs and one RBI.

Why this could be the year: This is a better Blue Jays club than those last three playoff teams. They have home-field advantage throughout the AL bracket and went 54-27 at home. Since May 27, only the Brewers have a better record, and they do things that work in postseason baseball: They play good defense and they had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors. Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber give them a strong 1-2 punch and rookie Trey Yesavage could be a huge secret weapon, either as a starter or reliever, despite just 14 innings in the majors. Plus, Guerrero and Bichette (if he’s healthy) are due to finally do something in October.