Rachel Kryshak is a professional data consultant specializing in data communication and modelling. She’s worked in the NHL and consulted for professional teams across North American and Europe. She hosts the Staff & Graph Podcast and discusses sports from a data-driven perspective.
The NHL preseason is close to finished, and the regular season is approaching on Oct. 7.
Last season, there were plenty of opportunities for regression, given what occurred during the 2023-24 season. Almost every player in last year’s article regressed in a meaningful way. Auston Matthews, Sam Reinhart, Jonathan Marchessault, Zach Hyman and the Vancouver Canucks regressed in their own significant ways from the previous season. That’s not to say they won’t bounce back this season.
Candidates for regression include those most likely to see a 10+% drop in production, be it goals or points, based on their situations. The biggest regression factor is shooting percentage; many players featured on this list shot well over their expected paces. Other factors include players projected to be in different situations, team environment and elevated matchups.
Prior to last season, Morgan Geekie’s career high in shooting percentage was 13%. His shooting percentage in 2024-25? Twenty-two percent!
Playing on Boston’s top line, that led to a goal total of 33, nearly doubling his previous career high of 17. Suffice to say, that is highly unlikely to occur in back-to-back seasons.
Geekie’s goal production exploded, his role increased with the Bruins and he saw his offensive zone starts increase from 12.1% to 19.1%. According to MoneyPuck, his 5-on-5 on-ice goals percentage was 58% against an expected percentage of 52.7%. Given the state of the Bruins, it is reasonable to expect those numbers to regress as well.
If Geekie continues to play on the top line, it is reasonable to expect his goal total to be in line with a complementary player on a top line, skating with an elite goal scorer (David Pastrnak). That is to say, Geekie is more likely to total between 22 and 26 goals, than he is to hit 30 again.
He will continue to be a key player for the Bruins, getting those top-line minutes, but with that comes more difficult matchups. There is nowhere to hide when you play on the top line, he will have less time and space to maneuver, and it is fair to expect a drop in goal production.
Scheifele’s 2024-25 season was incredible, notching 39 goals and 87 points. During the campaigns in which he tallied 38, 39 and 42 goals, his shooting percentage was around 20%, which is three percentage points higher than his career shooting percentage. He also scored more than 10 power-play goals in each of those seasons, which is likely where the regression is going to come from.
Last season, Scheifele had a career high in power-play points, with 25, and while he should score around 20 again, the loss of Nikolaj Ehlers on the top power play will impact a power play that ranked as the best in the NHL. It is unlikely the Jets would repeat a 29% success rate on the power play if Ehlers had been retained; it becomes less likely without him.
A regression in power-play success combined with some expected shooting percentage regression should see Scheifele score around 30 goals and 77 points. While that is still top-line center production, a regression of more than 10% and nearly 25% in goal scoring would be a step back after a tremendous 2024-2025.
Many Capitals players had eye-popping statistical seasons in 2024-2025, perhaps none more so than Protas.
The 6-6, 247-pound forward broke out in a major way last season, more than doubling his point total from the season prior, and notching 30 goals, following a previous career high of six! Protas’ career-high shooting percentage was 8.8% … until last season, when it jumped to 21.1%. According to MoneyPuck, he scored 8.3 goals above expected in all situations.
There is no question his shot improved dramatically, but shooting 21% is not sustainable. The greatest shooter in the history of the sport, his teammate Alex Ovechkin, shot 18.6% last season. On that stat alone, you can expect significant regression. If Protas is a true 11-12% shooter, a more plausible goal output for him would be around 20 goals, 33% less than last season’s mark.
Adding to this, Protas scored zero power-play goals, and as long as Ovechkin is playing, the 24-year-old is unlikely to get many shooting opportunities on the power play. In fairness, no one on the Caps is.
Protas is tremendously talented and caught many teams by surprise last season. That will not be the case this season, and he will face tougher matchups as teams will be more aware of him as a scoring threat. He’s more likely to be a 55- to 60-point power winger than a 65-plus-point player.
Hagel’s profile was raised an order of magnitude higher after his performance at the 4 Nations Face-Off, despite have three consecutive seasons of quality offensive production in Tampa Bay.
He’s a menace for the Lightning, and a short-handed threat, notching seven points on the penalty kill last season, accounting for nearly half of his career output while a man down (16). While Hagel is one of the league’s most dangerous penalty killers, he is unlikely to have a repeat performance of shorthanded offensive production.
A 90-point season raised a lot of eyebrows around the NHL, but Hagel’s shooting percentage was a relatively sustainable 15.4%. Hagel is slated to play on the second line with Anthony Cirelli, another excellent two-way player. While he is still likely to be near a point-per-game pace, Hagel is unlikely to notch 90 points playing in that role, without meaningful time skating on a line with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. His true talent is more indicative of a 75-80 point player, which is elite for a second-liner, but almost a 15% drop in production should be expected.
One of the best two-way wingers in the NHL has a few things working against him this season.
First and foremost, he’s played more than 60 games just three times in the past 10 seasons. Yes, there was COVID-19, but no one following the NHL is going to make the argument that Mark Stone’s health is something to be relied upon. He was uncharacteristically healthy last season, and yet managed to play in only 66 of the 82 games, tallying 67 points. Stone is 33, and has dealt with more than his fair share of back injuries; those do not go away with age.
Adding to that, Stone has rightfully lost his spot next to Jack Eichel because, in case you haven’t heard, Mitch Marner is now with the Golden Knights. That will dimmish Stone’s opportunity alongside one of the past centers in the NHL, though Stone should still get opportunities on the top power-play unit.
The regression boils down to Stone’s injury history, a decreased role on the second line, and that the drop from Eichel to William Karlsson is significant enough to warrant a 10% drop in offensive production at even strength. When all of those factors are considered, it is difficult to see Stone having a second consecutive season of 65-plus points. However, if he stays healthy and plays 82 games for the first time in his career, he is projected for 68 points.
Duchene is expected to be the third-line center for the Stars this season, and I cannot think of a single third-line center who notched 82 points.
He should continue to get power-play time, but a third-line role behind Roope Hintz and Wyatt Johnston will limit his ice-time and opportunities to create offense. Further to that, Duchene shot 19.7% last season, the second highest mark of his career, which carries an average shooting percentage of 13.6%. With decreasing opportunity, it is not a guarantee that Duchene tallies 150 shots this season. Combined with expected regression on his shooting percentage, his projection of 21 goals and 40 assists is excellent for a third-line player, but a drop from the point-per-game season he authored in 2024-2025.
Age is not in Duchene’s favor, either. Given age curves, it wouldn’t be surprising to see his production fall by more than 20% regardless of ice time or offensive opportunity afforded to him. The 34-year-old is highly talented; however, Father Time catches everyone not named Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin, it seems.
He’ll be one of the best bottom-six players in the NHL, but it is difficult to envision how he matches last season’s production.
Backed by a raucous crowd of 40,895 at Wrigley Field, Chicago used its stellar defense to advance in the postseason for the first time since 2017. Michael Busch hit a solo homer, and Jameson Taillon pitched four shutout innings before manager Craig Counsell used five relievers to close it out.
“This group’s battle-tested,” Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson said. “This group can grind it out. This group never backs down from and shies away from anything. This is such an amazing thing to be a part of.”
Next up for Chicago is a matchup with the NL Central champion Brewers in a compelling division series, beginning with Game 1 on Saturday in Milwaukee.
Counsell managed the Brewers for nine years before he was hired by the Cubs in November 2023, and he has been lustily booed in Milwaukee ever since he departed.
“It’s going to be a great atmosphere,” Counsell said. “It’s Cubs-Brewers. That’s going to be as good as it gets. It’s always a great atmosphere when the two teams play each other.”
It was another painful ending for San Diego after it made the postseason for the fourth time in six years but fell short of a pennant again. The Padres forced a decisive Game 3 with a 3-0 victory on Wednesday, but their biggest stars flopped in the series finale.
“There’s a lot of hurt guys in that clubhouse, but we left it all out on the field, and there’s no regrets on anybody’s part,” manager Mike Shildt said. “Just disappointed.”
Tatis went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts, including a fly ball to right that stranded runners on second and third in the fifth. Machado, who hit a two-run homer in Game 2, bounced to shortstop Swanson for the final out of the eighth, leaving a runner at third.
“It’s not fun at all. We definitely missed an opportunity,” Tatis said.
Darvish also struggled against his former team. The Japanese right-hander was pulled after the first four Cubs batters reached in the second inning, capped by the first of Crow-Armstrong’s three hits.
Jeremiah Estrada came in and issued a bases-loaded walk to Swanson, handing the Cubs a 2-0 lead. Estrada limited the damage by striking out Matt Shaw before Busch bounced into an inning-ending double play.
Taillon allowed two hits and struck out four. Caleb Thielbar got two outs before Daniel Palencia wiggled out of a fifth-inning jam while earning his second win of the series. Drew Pomeranz managed the seventh before Keller worked the eighth.
The Cubs supported their bullpen with another solid day in the field. Swanson made a slick play on Luis Arraez‘s leadoff grounder in the sixth, and then turned an inning-ending double play following a walk to Machado.
Crow-Armstrong, who went 0-for-6 with five strikeouts in the first two games, robbed Machado of a hit with a sliding catch in center in the first.
“It’s just the next step for us,” Busch said. “You set out a goal before each and every year to do stuff like this, and you celebrate it, and it’s been fun to celebrate and continue to celebrate it tonight, but there’s a lot of work ahead.”
NEW YORK — Rookie right-hander Cam Schlittler struck out 12 in eight dominant innings and the New York Yankees beat the Boston Red Sox4-0 on Thursday night to win their AL Wild Card Series in a deciding third game.
Taking his place in Yankees-Red Sox rivalry lore, the 24-year-old Schlittler overpowered Boston with 100 mph heat in his 15th major league start and pitched New York into a best-of-five division series against American League East champion Toronto beginning Saturday.
“A star is born tonight. He’s a special kid, man,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said. “He is not afraid. He expects this.”
Amed Rosario and Anthony Volpe each had an RBI single in a four-run fourth as New York became the first team to lose the opener of a best-of-three wild-card series and come back to advance since Major League Baseball expanded the first round in 2022.
“It felt like the most pressure-packed game I’ve ever experienced — World Series, clinching games, whatever,” Boone said.
Schlittler, who debuted in the majors July 9, grew up a Red Sox fan in Walpole, Massachusetts — but has said several times he wanted to play for the Yankees. He had faced Boston only once before, as a freshman at Northeastern in a 2020 spring training exhibition.
Ex-Yankees great Andy Pettitte gave Schlittler one piece of advice Wednesday: Get a good night’s sleep.
“I woke up and I was locked in, so I knew exactly what I needed to do to go out there, especially against my hometown team,” Schlittler said.
He outpitched Connelly Early, a 23-year-old left-hander who debuted Sept. 9 and became Boston’s youngest postseason starting pitcher since 21-year-old Babe Ruth in 1916.
Schlittler struck out two more than any other Yankees pitcher had in his postseason debut, allowing just five singles and walking none. He threw 11 pitches 100 mph or faster — including six in the first inning, one more than all Yankees pitchers had combined for previously since pitch tracking started in 2008.
Schlittler threw 75 of 107 pitches for strikes, starting 22 of 29 batters with strikes and topping out at 100.8 mph. David Bednar worked around a leadoff walk in the ninth as the Red Sox failed to advance a runner past second base.
Bucky Dent threw out the ceremonial first pitch on the 47th anniversary of his go-ahead, three-run homer for New York at Fenway Park in an AL East tiebreaker game, and the Yankees went on to vanquish their longtime rivals the way they often used to.
New York, which arrived packed for a late-night flight to Toronto, won its second straight after losing eight of nine postseason meetings with Boston dating to 2004 and edged ahead 14-13 in postseason games between the teams. The Red Sox cost themselves in the fourth with a defense that committed a big league-high 116 errors during the regular season.
New York’s rally began when Cody Bellinger hit a soft fly into the triangle between center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela, right fielder Wilyer Abreu and second baseman Romy González. The ball fell just in front of Rafaela, 234 feet from home plate, as Bellinger hustled into second with a double.
Giancarlo Stanton walked on a full count and with one out Rosario grounded a single into left, just past diving shortstop Trevor Story, to drive in Bellinger with the first run.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s single loaded the bases, and Volpe hit a grounder just past González, who had been shifted toward second, and into right for an RBI single and a 2-0 lead.
After a catcher’s interference call on Omar Narváez was overturned on a video review, Austin Wells hit a potential double-play grounder that first baseman Nathaniel Lowe tried to backhand on an in-between hop. The ball glanced off his glove and into shallow right field as two runs scored.
“We didn’t play defense,” Boston manager Alex Cora said. “They didn’t hit the ball hard, but they found holes and it happened fast.”
Yankees third baseman Ryan McMahon made the defensive play of the game when he caught Jarren Duran‘s eighth-inning foul pop and somersaulted into Boston’s dugout, then emerged smiling and apparently unhurt.
Count Xander Bogaerts among those looking forward to Major League Baseball’s new challenge system for balls and strikes next season.
The San Diego Padres shortstop just wishes it were in place a little earlier.
Bogaerts struck out looking on a pitch that appeared out of the strike zone during the ninth inning of the team’s 3-1 loss to the Cubs in Game 3 of the National League Wild Card Series on Thursday in Chicago.
The call came at a critical time.
The Cubs carried a 3-0 lead into the ninth inning, but Jackson Merrill led off with a home run off Brad Keller to cut San Diego’s deficit to 3-1 and bring Bogaerts to the plate. On a 3-2 count, Keller’s 97 mph fastball appeared to miss the zone low, causing Bogaerts to crouch down in disbelief at the call and Padres manager Mike Shildt to race out of the dugout.
Keller then hit Ryan O’Hearn and Bryce Johnson with pitches. Had Bogaerts walked, the Padres could have had the bases loaded with no outs. Instead, Andrew Kittredge came on with two runners on and one out and retired the next two batters, allowing the Cubs to advance to play the Milwaukee Brewers in the next round.
Bogaerts didn’t mince words after the game when asked about the apparent missed call by plate umpire D.J. Reyburn.
“Talk about it now: What do you want me to do?” Bogaerts said, according to The San Diego Union-Tribune. “It’s a ball. Messed up the whole game, you know? I mean, can’t go back in time, and talking about it now won’t change anything. So it was bad, and thank God for ABS next year because this is terrible.”
The automated ball-strike system will be implemented in the majors next season after years of testing in the minors as well as during spring training and at this year’s All-Star Game. The MLB competition committee voted last month to give teams two challenges per game using ABS if they believe a call by the plate umpire is wrong.
Thursday’s ending soured a 90-win season for San Diego, which made the playoffs for the fourth time in six seasons. It has not made it past the NL Championship Series during this recent run.
“We had a lot of fun,” Bogaerts said. “We competed with each other. We had guys that got injuries, a lot of guys stepped up. We traded for some really great people at the deadline. … It was fun until today.”