Data leaked to Sky News shows Tory conference might be set for smaller crowd this year
Will as many people as last year come to Tory conference? I have a leak that helps explore this – and it reveals the party itself is expecting fewer.
Normally you don’t get any detailed breakdowns of conference data – who is coming and in what category.
But I’ve been shared an early cut of the numbers from this year. What you can see above is a screenshot of the data sent to the party board.
I am told this table is from 11 August and shows the then-current attendance figures which were sent to the Conservative Party board. They revealed numbers due to be coming to Manchester this week, lagging on last year.
You can see that at that stage, there are more than 1,000 fewer members due to come to conference than had been listed in early August 2024.
Supporters at this year’s Tory party conference greet their leader Kemi Badenoch. Pic: PA
Indeed, the party’s target is markedly lower. There are also fewer Young Conservatives, though by a much smaller margin.
However, the number of commercial guests is up on last year, as is donors, known as ‘Treasurer’s Guests’, although the number planning to attend Business Day on Monday is down.
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I’m told the current number of members coming to Manchester is 3,500, although that is calculated on a different basis to these – and includes Young Conservatives.
Another source told me the number of members coming to conference – calculated on the above basis – is around 2,800 but it was not possible to verify that.
A Conservative spokesman said: “This out-of-date report does not reflect the strength of Conservative Party conference 2025.
“There are thousands of members – many new to the party – hundreds of businesses, and many other delegates attending to hear Kemi Badenoch‘s bold new vision for the country.
“This conference the Conservatives will demonstrate they are the only party that can be trusted to deliver a stronger economy and stronger borders for the country.”
In response to the leaked data, Reform UK posted on X, “The Conservative Party is finished.”
The UK has floated a new tax framework that eases the burden on decentralized finance (DeFi) users, with deferred capital gains taxes on crypto lending and liquidity pool users until the underlying token is sold, which the local industry has welcomed.
HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) proposed on Wednesday a “no gain, no loss” approach to DeFi that would cover lending out a token and receiving the same type back, borrowing arrangements and moving tokens into a liquidity pool.
Taxable gains or losses would be calculated when liquidity tokens are redeemed, based on the number of tokens a user receives back compared to the number they originally contributed, according to the proposal.
Currently, when a user deposits funds into a protocol, regardless of the reason, the move may be subject to capital gains tax. In the UK, capital gains tax rates can vary between 18% and 32%, depending on the action.
Tax framework a ‘positive signal’ for UK crypto regulation
Sian Morton, marketing lead at the crosschain payments system Relay protocol, said HMRC’s no gain, no loss approach is a “meaningful step forward for UK DeFi users who borrow stablecoins against their crypto collateral, and moves tax treatment closer to the actual economic reality of these interactions.”
“A positive signal for the UK’s evolving stance on crypto regulation,” she added.
Maria Riivari, a lawyer at the DeFi platform Aave, said the change “would bring clarity that DeFi transactions do not trigger tax until you truly sell your tokens.”
“Other countries facing similar questions may want to take note of HMRC’s approach and the depth of research and consideration behind it,” she added.
Aave CEO Stani Kulechov said the proposal was “a major win for UK DeFi users who want to borrow stablecoins against their crypto collateral.”
Related: Switzerland delays crypto tax info sharing until 2027
DeFi tax overhaul not set in stone yet
However, the proposal is not a done deal yet. HMRC said it’s continuing to engage with relevant stakeholders “to assess the merits of this potential approach, and the case for making legislative change to the rules governing the taxation of crypto asset loans and liquidity pools.”
“In particular, to ensure that it would cover the range of transactions that can take place under these arrangements and would be viable for individuals to comply with,” the agency added.
In the initial consultation, 32 formal written responses were submitted by individuals, businesses, tax professionals and representative bodies, which included crypto exchange Binance, venture capital firm a16z Capital Management and self-regulatory trade association Crypto UK.
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Politics
Budget 2025: Reeves urged to ‘make the case’ for income tax freeze – as PM hits out at defenders of ‘failed’ policy
Rachel Reeves needs to “make the case” to voters that extending the freeze on personal income thresholds was the “fairest” way to increase taxes, Baroness Harriet Harman has said.
Speaking to Sky News political editor Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast, the Labour peer said the chancellor needed to explain that her decision would “protect people’s cost of living if they’re on low incomes”.
In her budget on Wednesday, Ms Reeves extended the freeze on income tax thresholds – introduced by the Conservatives in 2021 and due to expire in 2028 – by three years.
The move – described by critics as a “stealth tax” – is estimated to raise £8bn for the exchequer in 2029-2030 by dragging some 1.7 million people into a higher tax band as their pay goes up.
Rachel Reeves, pictured the day after delivering the budget. Pic: PA
The chancellor previously said she would not freeze thresholds as it would “hurt working people” – prompting accusations she has broken the trust of voters.
During the general election campaign, Labour promised not to increase VAT, national insurance or income tax rates.
Sir Keir Starmer has insisted there’s been no manifesto breach, but acknowledged people were being asked to “contribute” to protect public services.
He has also launched a staunch defence of the government’s decision to scrap the two-child benefit cap, with its estimated cost of around £3bn by the end of this parliament.
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Prime minister defends budget
‘A moral failure’
The prime minister condemned the Conservative policy as a “failed social experiment” and said those who defend it stand for “a moral failure and an economic disaster”.
“The record highs of child poverty in this country aren’t just numbers on a spreadsheet – they mean millions of children are going to bed hungry, falling behind at school, and growing up believing that a better future is out of reach despite their parents doing everything right,” he said.
The two-child limit restricts child tax credit and universal credit to the first two children in most households.
The government believes lifting the limit will pull 450,000 children out of poverty, which it argues will ultimately help reduce costs by preventing knock-on issues like dependency on welfare – and help people find jobs.
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Budget winners and losers
Speaking to Rigby, Baroness Harman said Ms Reeves now needed to convince “the woman on the doorstep” of why she’s raised taxes in the way that she has.
“I think Rachel really answered it very, very clearly when she said, ‘well, actually, we haven’t broken the manifesto because the manifesto was about rates’.
“And you remember there was a big kerfuffle before the budget about whether they would increase the rate of income tax or the rate of national insurance, and they backed off that because that would have been a breach of the manifesto.
“But she has had to increase the tax take, and she’s done it by increasing by freezing the thresholds, which she says she didn’t want to do. But she’s tried to do it with the fairest possible way, with counterbalancing support for people on low incomes.”
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She added: “And that is the argument that’s now got to be had with the public. The Labour members of parliament are happy about it. The markets essentially are happy about it. But she needs to make the case, and everybody in the government is going to need to make the case about it.
“This was a difficult thing to do, but it’s been done in the fairest possible way, and it’s for the good, because it will protect people’s cost of living if they’re on low incomes.”
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