Half of all Conservative members think Kemi Badenoch should not lead the party into the next election, according to an exclusive Sky News Tory members poll.

The YouGov poll found 46% think the current Tory leader should stay in place when the country next goes to the polls, while 50% say she should not.

Tory members are split as to whether she will make it that far. A total of 49% think she will be out before the election, compared with 47% who think she’ll still be in place.

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The Tory leader will hope that this week’s conference in Manchester will steady her leadership.

But asked who they would prefer as leader of the Conservative Party, 46% of Tory members picked Robert Jenrick, comfortably ahead of the 39% who said Ms Badenoch. In all, 11% said neither and 4% don’t know.

The poll of 652 Conservative members was taken between 26 September and 2 October.

Having lost to Ms Badenoch a year ago, Mr Jenrick is now comfortably the members’ favourite, and would beat Boris Johnson, James Cleverly and Priti Patel. Badenoch would narrowly beat Johnson if they went head to head.

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Ms Badenoch rejects any kind of electoral pact with Reform UK at the next election, but this is out of step with Tory members.

The poll finds 64% support an electoral pact, meaning Reform and the Tories would not stand candidates against each other in target seats, while 31% do not.

Almost half of Tory members – 46% – would support a full blown merger with Reform UK, against 48% who would oppose a merger.

Party members are very clear that in a hung parliament, they would not want to see Tory MPs putting a Labour prime minister back in Number 10.

Tory members oppose a coalition with Labour by 93% to 6%. However 73% would welcome a coalition with Reform UK in a hung parliament, with 25% against.